Here’s another batch of TACO-related rumors to ponder.
Trump Says Iran Talks to Begin Monday
Bloomberg reports Trump Says Iran Talks to Begin Monday After Scrapping Attack
President Donald Trump said new Iran talks would begin Monday afternoon after he called off a planned attack on Iran partially in response to pleas from US allies in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia.
“It would have been the biggest attack since World War II,” Trump said Sunday to reporters on Air Force One. “We’re just going to see whether or not we can make a deal.”
He added, “I’m not looking to kill people.”
Trump suggested a deal on reopening the Strait of Hormuz may be close, and said he would also continue to pursue a path to end Iran’s nuclear program.
The US president said that Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told him over the weekend that he preferred continued talks to the planned strikes.
“They said we would much prefer a deal as opposed to an attack because you don’t know where these attacks lead,” Trump said. “I mean, will they be flooded with people pouring into their country and disaster. A lot of better things can happen.”
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said earlier Sunday on Telegram that negotiations between Iran and Oman are in the final stages. The two countries that flank the strait are discussing a new route through it, but the talks don’t cover whether the strait will be closed or open, Araghchi spokesman Esmail Baghaei said in an interview on Iranian state-run TV. Baghaei blamed the US for the waterway being closed to shipping traffic.
Three-Way Deal Rumored
Israeli media also reported on August 2 that Araghchi agreed to a US- and Qatari-formulated proposal in which vessels would enter the Persian Gulf through Iranian waters and exit through Omani waters.
That is a logical deal, assuming Trump , Iran, and Oman all agree.
The Update
MORE: IRGC-affiliated Fars News denied on August 2 that Iran agreed to a plan to reopen the strait. An informed Iranian military source told Fars News that the strait will remain closed as long as the United States continues to conduct “hostile actions.” The source added that vessels can only transit through Iran’s traffic separation scheme and with permission from the IRGC Navy. This report highlights how some IRGC factions, likely including Vahidi’s faction, seek to retain full control over all traffic in the strait and likely oppose an arrangement in which Iran would only control inbound traffic in the strait. The IRGC controls the forces that have repeatedly attacked shipping in the strait in recent months, and it could therefore try to undermine an arrangement in the Strait of Hormuz that it deems contrary to the regime’s interests.
Iranian negotiators’ reported openness to the US- and Qatari-formulated proposal is consistent with Iranian “pragmatist” actors’ support for negotiating a diplomatic settlement to advance Iranian objectives. “Pragmatist” officials such as Araghchi, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and President Masoud Pezeshkian have consistently advocated for using diplomacy to secure Iranian interests, such as securing Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz and obtaining economic relief. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has repeatedly voiced concerns about the economic costs of war, and he convinced Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei to accept the memorandum of understanding (MoU) in June by highlighting the MoU’s economic benefits.
The Original Post
NEW: Iranian negotiators such as Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi may be willing to make limited compromises with the United States over the extent of Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) faction led by IRGC Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi, which appears to be currently dominating regime decision-making, will likely reject any arrangement that meaningfully reduces Iranian control over the waterway, however.
Other Key Takeaways:
US President Donald Trump stated on August 1 that he canceled planned strikes on Iran after Iran — presumably referring to Iranian negotiators — and regional states informed him that they had agreed on the parameters of a deal that reportedly includes the “immediate, complete, and total opening” of the strait and “an end to Iran’s nuclear threat.”
Israeli media also reported on August 2 that Araghchi agreed to a US- and Qatari-formulated proposal in which vessels would enter the Persian Gulf through Iranian waters and exit through Omani waters.
An arrangement in which Iran controls inbound traffic in the Strait of Hormuz would still enable Iran to control which vessels can enter the Persian Gulf and thus continue to undermine the United States’ interests as well as global commerce. Iranian officials have repeatedly emphasized that they seek to prevent “hostile” vessels, including US Navy vessels, from entering the Persian Gulf.
Some Iranian regime officials may be seeking to appease ultra-hardliners by emphasizing that the regime is exploiting pauses in US military operations and periods of diplomacy to reconstitute military capabilities and import new equipment. Iranian Artesh Spokesperson Brigadier General Mohammad Akraminia explicitly stated on August 2 that Iran “fully exploited” the MoU and ceasefire to import new equipment, repair and reconstruct damaged systems, and produce new systems.
Negotiations Start Monday
Unless Trump is willing to make major concessions, negotiations are headed nowhere.
More Route Rumors
Then Again
Comment of the Day
Withdrawing from the Iran Deal without a coherent plan is a major reason we’ve ended up here. And trying to unravel everything Barack Obama and Joe Biden accomplished isn’t foreign policy. It’s governance by grievance, not national interest. The Trump administration is flailing, incompetent, and visibly out of its depth, and the whole world knows it.
Well stated.
US Strategic Oil Reserves
Ignore the confusion over another alleged deal following another big Trump TACO.
Instead, please note Strategic Oil Reserves Down to a Record Low Two-Week Supply
The SPR is the lowest since 1982, but days should be the big concern.
Trump is desperate for a deal. The whole world can see it.
There’s a 99% chance these negotiations are only in Trump’s mind – or what’s left of it.
If oil comes down and the stock market orgasims then look forward to a ’23rd’ deal.
He can be desperate for a deal and the Iranian Minister can be aggreeable to/desperate for a deal but if the IRGC is spoiling to continue because they do not answer to the same entity negotiating the deal, well, how in Hades does this ever truly get resolved. Forgetting this blog’s disdain for Trump and his Administration, even if his missteps/miscalculations led to this point if the side he is negotiating/pleading/begging with isn’t the group that controls the missles, drones or resistance rogue(?)/”official”(?) forces, well, this won’t be the last of it because it can’t be the last of it. Those entities want something different than the ministerial representation.
Look for the go-nowhere talks to continue in the same fashion that the irreconciliable differences between D’s and R’s in the US continue to drag the polarized US along.
1) Trump makes the concessions that will satisfy the IRGC.
2) Trump manages to obliterate the IRGC and therefore remove them from their position of power in Iran.
I’ll let each person pick which option they find more likely to come to pass.
Trump desperately wants a deal.
On the Iranian side, Araghchi also wants a deal. The problem is that he does not call the shots, the IRGC does.
We can thank Trump for that.
Rumor has it MBS played the China card. He supposedly told Trump if their infrastructure gets destroyed it will also destroy any deals the Saudis have with the Trump family and the U.S. and they will turn to China.
Let me guess.
Iran says there is no deal, no one told them.
Trump gets his feelies hurt
Threatens to Bomb them like they’ve never been bombed. Nobodies ever seen that many bombs
But he doesn’t because there’s a deal and they are desperately to negotiate.
How many times? Someone said 22 times we have done this. This isn’t 4D chess, this is America being Great. Great big mess
Someone said that this is the 22nd Iran “deal” announced by Trump so far. Anybody keeping count? LOL
Bullshit isn’t counted, it’s sold by weight.
This is just standard Trump, manipulating the markets before they open on Monday. This cycle has been going on for months. Step 1, threaten a history-making bombing of Iran. Step 2, decide to postpone the attack because Iran has come crawling back, begging for a deal. Markets eat it up and the Dow goes up! Step 3, the ‘deal’ falls apart, as we all knew it would.
It’s like fast and furious 12 or whatever.
Tired of the reruns. Oh cars! Seen it. Same with Trump
I would add, the attack was never intended to happen in the first place. Telegraphing an attack ahead of the attack like they did could cost lives. It was done to allow Trump to announce he had decided to hold off. Pure theatre. Also in play is Israeli’s lack of enthusiasm for being a target. They have seen first hand what the missiles can do.
You can count on taco capitulating but doing whatever is in HIS and/or HIS family’s best economic and financial interests. The trump family has become the modern day version of the Gambino’s.