The grim setup for Republicans in the midterms keeps building. 
GOP Divisions in Texas
A Fox News Poll shows GOP Divisions Shape Texas Senate Race
President Donald Trump won the Lone Star state by nearly 14 percentage points in 2024, but a new Fox News Poll of Texas registered voters suggests this year’s Senate race is far less settled. Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton has yet to fully unify the GOP despite the president’s endorsement in the GOP primary against incumbent Sen. John Cornyn.
In addition, more voters are concerned Paxton lacks the character to serve than worry Democratic challenger James Talarico is too extreme, and more Democrats than Republicans are extremely motivated to vote (by 7 points) and extremely interested in the midterms (by 6).
Those dynamics give Talarico a 3-point edge over Paxton (51% vs. 48%) in the Senate contest (within the survey’s margin of sampling error).
Talarico’s advantage in the race grows to 6 points among both extremely motivated and extremely interested voters (53% vs. 47% in each group).
Most independents (68%) and virtually all Democrats support Talarico (98%), while fewer Republicans are unified behind Paxton (89%).
In part, that’s because one quarter of non-MAGA Republicans back Talarico (24%).
Paxton is the choice among White evangelical Christians, White men without a college degree, rural voters, regular worship attenders, men and voters ages 65 and older.
Some of Talarico’s best groups are Black voters, moderates, voters under age 30, Hispanic voters, women and voters with a college degree.
By more than a 2-to-1 margin, Texas voters say they are falling behind financially rather than getting ahead (35% vs. 16%). Half are holding steady.
In the race for governor, incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is favored by 1 point over Democrat Gina Hinojosa.
Hinojosa has the advantage among extremely motivated (+6) and extremely interested voters (+5).
A closer look at the Hispanic electorate
Hispanic voters say their Senate pick will be driven by inflation, as roughly 4 in 10 say it will be the most important issue to their vote and another 4 in 10 say they’re falling behind financially. This mostly matches views among all Texas voters.
And as is the case with voters overall, there is an enthusiasm gap, as more Hispanic Democrats than Hispanic Republicans are interested and motivated to vote in the midterms.
Overall, Hispanic voters prefer Talarico by 18 points (59% vs. 41%).
Texas Eye Opener
I am not at all surprised that Paxton is trailing Talarico. Paxton is a genuine scumbag in a messy divorce proceeding for biblical grounds.
That Republican Governor Greg Abbott is only +1 over Democrat Gina Hinojosa is a genuine eye opener.
Close Race in Iowa
Also consider Fox News Poll: A Close Senate Contest Is Brewing in Iowa
The race to succeed Iowa’s retiring Republican Sen. Joni Ernst is on track to be one of the closest Senate contests in 2026. Ernst, the first woman senator to represent the Hawkeye State, won by 6.5 points in 2020, and President Donald Trump carried it by 8 points that year and by 13 in 2024.
A new statewide Fox News survey finds Iowans now view Trump negatively by 13 points (42% favorable vs. 55% unfavorable). That’s a 19-point swing compared to his +6 rating (52-46%) in the November 2024 Iowa Fox News Voter Analysis (FNVA) election survey.
The last time Iowa elected a Democratic senator was Tom Harkin nearly 20 years ago (2008). As it stands, Democrat Josh Turek has an early 4-point advantage over Republican Ashley Hinson: 50% vs. 46%. It’s an edge that’s within the poll’s margin of error.
Among voters who say they are extremely motivated to vote, Turek holds a 15-point lead, coming largely from greater enthusiasm among Democrats (67% extremely motivated) than Republicans (53%).
Iowa Surprise Not
Again, this is not surprising to me.
Trump brags about farmers but his trade war with China clobbered corn and soybean exports.
Idiotic tariff policy led to price increases for tractors and other farm equipment.
Trump’s idiotic war with Iran drove up the price of diesel.
Farmers have no reason to vote for Trump.
Expect a Blue Wave
The Polymaket definition is winning the House and a pickup up at least two in the Senate.
By that measure, I think it’s nearly a given, but Polymarket has the odds at 75 percent.
Politico comments Historical Trends Suggest a Blue Wave in November
Since World war II, the incumbent party has lost congressional seats in all but two midterm elections (1998 & 2002)
IN THE 2025 ELECTIONS, DEMOCRATS: IN THE 2026 PRIMARY ELECTIONS, DEMOCRATS
- Outperformed their 2024 results by 13% on average
- Picked up the Virginia governorship as well as control of the state
legislature- Held the New Jersey governor’s office and secured a supermajority
in the state assembly- Won 13 non-federal statewide races and 21% of all GOP-held
legislative seats on the ballot
IN THE 2026 PRIMARY ELECTIONS, DEMOCRATS
- Cast over 16 million votes, compared to Republicans’ 12.4 million votes
- Increased their vote share by 40% from 2022 while Republican turnout
decreased by 6%- Experienced a higher turnout in over 90% of House primaries,
compared to 2022- Set an all-time record turnout in the Texas primary elections
Trump Underwater on All Key Issues
Despite all that, I doubt we see a historic shift in the house.
A record low number of seats are in play due to huge gerrymandering on both sides.
Expect Democrats to win the House in a blue way but it won’t be a historic shift.
The Senate may be a different matter.
Trump’s Job Approval Ratings
Key Approval Stats
- Women: Trump Down by 11 Percentage Points
- Age 18-29: Trump Down by 13 Percentage Points
- Latino: Trump Down by 20 Percentage Points
- Independents: Trump Down by 22 Percentage Points
There is no gerrymandering at the statewide level. Republicans have to deal with those numbers.
Current Senate Polling
Georgia, Maine, North Carolina, and Michigan are likely Democrat (not just lean) in my view. Georgia and North Carolina are near certain.
If you are on board with that idea, then Democrats need two of Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas to win the Senate.
The most recent polls have Democrats ahead in Iowa, Ohio, and Texas.
What About the Betting Markets?
Please consider Kalshi 2026 Senate Prediction Market Prices
I place as much if not more weight on the betting markets than polls.
Given the polls and the betting market are now mostly aligned (that has not been the case), I am confident Kakshi has this nearly correct.
Kalshi Competitive Senate Races
Kalshi has Alaska, Maine, and North Carolina in the Democrat column. If so, Democrats need just one more pickup to take control.
Kalshi how Ohio as a tossup but within tossup closer to a Democrat pickup. Texas is in the tossup category but closer to a Republican hold.
Both Iowa and Alaska are just above tossup with Iowa still in the Republican camp and Alaska in the Democrat camp.
Blend the polls with the betting markets and you are looking at something like +3 Democrats which is where I have been most of the year.
Looking Ahead
It’s not my forecast yet, but I have been discussing the possibility of a 6-seat Senate pickup by Democrats all year.
In January, that idea probably looked outright crazy to many.
Even before I saw the latest polls, I was 55-45 Democrats win the Senate. Just now Kalshi changed from 55-45 Republican to 54-47 with a bit of rounding somewhere. A couple weeks ago it was 58-42.
My look-ahead expectation is Trump will be Trump, the stock market will be shaky, and the polls and betting markets will converge towards Democrats.
For now, Trump is desperate for a deal with Iran and he is increasing posting totally bizarre images of himself that cannot possibly win any midterm votes.
The more desperate he gets, the more he hurts himself. And Trump is getting more desperate on many fronts simultaneously including ICE.
Gestapo tactics are back that nobody supports but white racists and economic illiterates. ICE could help deliver Ohio, Texas, and Iowa.
My economic base case is the Fed hikes rates in September damaging the stock market and weakening Republican chances.
The latest war escalation took the price of oil back to $4.10 and diesel a whopping $5.36 from $3.74 a year ago clobbering farmers hard.
Why should Iowa and Ohio farmers support this economic idiocy?
I expect the market to further catch up to my view.
For that, we have to wait and see. I reserve the right to take a second look in September if not earlier.
Related Posts
July 29, 2026: The Market Tells Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh “You Blew It Already”
The 30-Year Long Bond Yield Is the Highest in 19 Years.
July 30. 2026: Strategic Oil Reserves Down to a Record Low Two-Week Supply
The SPR is the lowest since 1982, but days should be the big concern.
August 1, 2026: Trump Revives Greenland Threat, Discusses Venezuela as the 51st US State
Witness another set of truly delusional Truth Social posts.
They should add this question when polling voters in the US:
Are you in favour of converting the US into a Russian-style mafia state?
Since that’s where Trump & frightened Republicans are taking the country, why not ask voters explicitly if that’s what they want?
If so, the country will be in deep trouble.
Mamdani’s doxing of a few thousand “rich New Yorkers” subject to his new tax was kind of funny, along with the puzzled reactions. It reminded me of the doxing in 1981 when the “democratic socialists” won in Greece – a lot of middle class families in my city (not the truly rich… the truly rich had houses far out of the city) had their home windows broken by rocks over a 3-night “krystalnacht”-like operation.
Pretty soon the useful idiots will find out what this non-existent “democratic socialism” really means, and that their publicly stated mottos “impoverish the white middle class” etc. are actual policy guidelines.
Please don’t tell me you just compared breaking of windows to Kristallnacht….
Well no, I’m not saying it was anything close to that, it was not well organized (Greece…) and there were no murders or home invasions, and their fanaticism deflated within the first 2-3 years.
It was funny seeing pics of Ministers at their offices with pictures of Lenin and and Che Guevara behind them (“dear leader” style), walking into homes and seeing framed pictures of Papandreou… and to be fair, the guy opened tons of completely inactive public services and hired about a million in the pubic sector with high salaries to do nothing (many didn’t even have offices to go), so their enthusiasm was justified.
I would understand such a policy in Belgium or Luxemburg (countries that are just the headquarters of organizations), but Greece used to be an up and coming honest country (that’s why it had been accepted in the Union initially), and then it became Venezuela But Without Oil. I remember the Ministers chanting just like Chavez “nationalize, nationalize”.
I wish I had time to write a book about that era, and since I live in the US now, I could actually write an honest book without fear.
My parents had a small (3 workers and themselves) shirt factory, no assets (we were renting both the shop and the house, my father didn’t even have a car), but just like the tiny grocery store two doors over, we were called “the capitalists” by the mob.
The language was the same that the DSA is using now in the US, and is known in Europe (it’s even in old satirical movies) since the 1950s.
PURE COMEDY GOLD “”We’re very strong — very very strong financially. They are, you know, they have a weakening yen, and they wanted a little bit of help. And we’re always there for Japan. Japan’s been very good to us, with the exception, of course, of Pearl Harbor,” the president said.
“White evangelical Christians, White men without a college degree, rural voters, regular worship attenders, men and voters ages 65 and older.”
The Gang That Couldn’t Shoot Straight
predictions? “There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance.”
― Philip Tetlock, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
I’m with you as far as pessimism goes, but those are all reasons why the data Mish has is to be questioned.
Why do you think there will be a strong pull toward R though? The few triple trump voters I know have totally flipped over epstein
“Why should Iowa and Ohio farmers support this economic idiocy?”
Because Jesus hates the gays and non-white people keep getting help.
RFK needs to go on a bender and put another bear cub in central park, and make it look like a hit and run accident with a bicycle. i bet trump was in the bushes watching.
Remember the guy who got in trouble for a banner that read, “Bong hits for Jesus”. Makes as much sense
Getting help isn’t the issue, being enabled is.
So how are we gonna deal with Mr. Market? The market usually bounces after an election resolution, whether it’s R or D, though I tend to think they like R a little better. But I fear a resolution may be long in coming and fraught with chaos and law-fair. But, in the end, will the market really care? Asking for a friend.
The google told me there is usually a “relief rally” as the election provides some stability. Over the last 50 years or so google says it really doesn’t matter R or D.
I’m not sure I’d trust google with anything more than a recipe for vegetable soup.
The effect of Bibi’s Bitch’s war has not hit fully at all in my view. Strategic reserves have got to be getting pretty low. I see oil prices right much higher in the next couple of months. (Higher food prices from fertilizer shortage probably will not hit before the election, but will later.)
Higher oil prices will boost long-term interest rates too, via Japan carry-trade even more than the US perhaps. Unfavorable economics will hurt Republicans.
And then the fact that Republicans have broken a majority of their promises yet again. Hard to run on “We mean it this time.” Republican will lose big to the even more worthless Dems. But either way, the Epstein class will rule.
not a person on planet could tell the difference, in a blind test, in usa of which party, was in control of whitehouse and congress in the past 60 years. nixon to raygun to slick willie and donald epstein……….and all the other miscreants. democracy works. the people are truly represented.
I genuinely am over people who think they are sooooo edgy by saying there’s no difference
There is a (somewhat Freudian) theory around that what Trump really wants is Republicans to get crushed in both 2026 and 2028. The reasoning is that Trump doesn’t care about policies or ideologies; the only thing he cares about is that people see him as the center of the universe. Since he is not on the ballot in 2026 and 2028 (and beyond), to his twisted mind at least, Republicans losing is definitive proof that without him on the ballot, the party can’t win. The theory may at first sound far fetched, but nobody can deny that Trump is right now doing everything to hand the upcoming midterms to a lackluster Democratic Party.
Another similar thought is that he doesn’t care because all he really wants is to be the King of the GOP. Everyone in the GOP has to go through him to get elected, and if a big donor wants to get his boy elected, he’ll have to pay Trump for the privilege.
powdered wig and a crown, for Donald Epstein for his 3rd and 4th terms.
Are we at the official Roman Republic to Empire moment or have we been there all along?
like the romans, our people keep voting for the empire. at least since the 1820s invasion of the spanish empire.
On prediction markets: strategic bets can and do manipulate these. In California, candidate Matt Mahan was 96 cents (96% probability) to win governor primaries. This was due to a strategic bet placed by one unknown person. Mahan came nowhere near that (single digits) in the actual primary.On polling: see the 2016 surprise presidential election results. So I discount these a lot.The narratives on why Dems will do so well sound like the usual wishful thinking constructions. It makes a lot of sense — to believers. OK, people are somewhat nervous about Paxton, versus the bumper sticker label shout-outs “immigration!” “Godless communism!” “Tax increases!” “Regulation!” Upshot: advantage Republicans.
What was the prediction market just prior to the vote?
Just prior to the June 2, 2026, primary vote, Matt Mahan’s prediction market price collapsed to a shade over zero cents, rendering his odds of winning virtually nonexistent. [1]
karl marx and lenin and mao must be laughing from their graves. Trump and the repugs have taken equity positions in the means of production for the government. it’s quite comical really. workers of the world unite. the uniparty amerikan empire will live for another 1000 years.
I’m not going to unseat Republican senators, just because of Trump’s stupidity. I have no desire for a return to mass unvetted immigration, nor stripping away of women’s and children’s protections through malignant Democrat legislative actions.
Remember Harris and Republican co-sponsors had a bill to fix the immigration problem but Trump demanded Republicans shoot it down so that the waves could continue until he got elected. That’s still sitting on the shelf ready to go when Dems take over. And they won’t need GOP votes.
And funny, Trump was able to completely shut down the border without legislation at all!
But you’re looking forward to the complementary compulsory sex change?
16 would be better then the molester and thief would be gone
Dana you ignorant slut…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MPP5exb-2rw
Sure glad I took the 6 to 1 odds that the republicans would hold congress after the mid terms about 3 months ago because the odds are almost even. Sound like the betting market is moving republican. The democratic party is monetarily and morally bankrupt. Without the syphon of NGOs on the government tit, the democrats are finding it tough to find money.
Almost the entire Republican Congress has sworn allegiance to Israel, they should all be deported!
95% of Republicans and ~90% of Dems have AIPAC handlers and are under the control of the Zionists. Effectively Uniparty Neocon situation. Absurd to say but true: If Bibi wanted the US to have voter ID, it would be passed. (Of course, he doesn’t want anything beneficial; he wants chaos and dissension in the US.)
But that is only one issue in a big pile of issues. Where do probable voters rank Congress and Israel in their concerns today?
LMAO that Dems are having a hard time raising money with a pedo president losing two wars in E. Europe and the other in W. Asia, consumer confidence in the toilet, real wage income swirling around the toilet and a divided GOP/MAGA
… and don’t be shocked if it makes absolutely NO difference on ANY issue – domestic or foreign.
Texas is a state ruled by Christian pedophiles and rapists. Only 50% of the eligible voters are even registered and of that 50% at least half of them are low IQ inbred rural white Christian fascists. Do not expect anything to change there. Most of them would vote for a rabid dog wearing a MAGA hat.
A rabid dog wearing a MAGA hat would be a vast improvement over what they have now. You should listen to the MAGA Rednecks complaining their favorite gummies have disappeared.
May this be true. So Be It!
Not that I think the democrats will make any significant changes. Dueling orthodoxies that never enable an actual thirdness greater oneness of the best aspects of that duality is the signature of stasis while accomplishing thirdness has always been the signature of paradigm change…and thats what we desperately need. The first party to recognize this will win the greatest political coalition since The New Deal.
Posted September 22, 2024: “My call remains. Renters (primarily young voters and Blacks) will decide the election.”
https://mishtalk.com/economics/21-million-renter-households-spent-over-30-of-their-income-on-housing-costs/
And here we are for those of you that doubt Mish’s analysis. It’s part of the reason many of us regulars keep coming back.
And where are we now?
Renters and blacks aren’t any better off.
Young people wanting to buy a home can’t with the cost or interest rates.
People that were tired of wars just got multiple doses (Iran, Ukraine, Venezuela, and whatever else is going on).
Farmers are worse off but they are just as dumb as ever.
Seniors are worse off when social security cuts come, the collapse is near.
SNAP receivers were cut off, you think they’re going to vote for Trump?
I could go on but why bother, republicans have been losing virtually every single election the past few months.
Of course, dems winning won’t fix a damn thing.
Not the $40 trillion in debt and growing.
Not the demographic death spiral.
Not the 80 million socialist leeches draining society.
Not the wars.
Not the inequity.
Not the government waste.
So choose your poison wisely readers, some of us have already voted with our feet.
Do worry, Trump, Walrus, GOP & DEMOCRATS will find a way to make things even worse.™
Mish, I award you a 3-star Mishelin award for analysis and predictive gumption. Let’s see what happens in November.
farmers are not inherently dumb, but decades of the greatest welfare the empire has to offer has made them inherently, intellectually, lazy.
I would argue tech, the tbtf banksters, real estate sector and big oil are the welfare queens unless by farmers you mean big ag.
i grew up in rich hood where all our daddies worked on wall street. we followed in that tough trade school. you are correct. the FED is our bailout. free dough. in fact they paid the banks to borrow. imagine allowing the flyover people that deal. big oil has it great as when tax code was put together they were dominant in congress with power. but alas, nyc banks have it the best. farmers have it easy too, but not as juicy a deal. big ag gets to sell poison and call it food in pax dumbfuckistan. fat fucks driving big pickup trucks are a delight to watch. i live in a small town surrounded by farms in the same families for 200 years and more. hudson valley. great grifters. just not wall street level i admit.
I think 2 seats are a given, but no way 6. A lot changes when your behind that curtain. Say one thing in public, but yet another to yourself in private.
It would not shock me with 3, but I would be surprised with more than 2. I would be floored if it were 6… that’s crazy talk imho.
I certainly hope you’re right. I think we’re in period that Henri Pirenne talked about, between the end of the Roman Empire and the rise of the Moslems. What happened after that was the destruction of prosperous cities that depended on the Mediterranean trade, and the rise of the rural lords in Europe.
New York won’t have a good time if anything analogous happens.
– I certainly hope you’re right. > Me too, but not for any reasons you listed. I hope I’m right, because that would mean I was right about the Democrat Party literally self destructing in slow motion! The communism/Socialism wing of their party, has taken over, and are loud and proud about it!
>> As the leaders of the party realize what they have done, they have also realized it may be too late to do anything about it. That will have lasting repercussions imo. I see some switching out of the party, and many independents relooking at what they were thinking and why. Many will switch their thinking and go Republican perhaps, and many could simply stay home.
>>> If they splinter entirely, which is quite possible, the Republicans could win everything all over again. This is a very distinct possibility imho. We shall see soon enough…
Taco, with his ill-timed decisions, verbal vomit, deranged and delustional thinking is doing all he can to make this happen.
TACO never went awry by underestimating the intelligence of the voting public. I suggest that still holds for voters in this election: voters did not suddenly grow more intelligent.
Don’t be too sure
Trump adding to his peace tally wth Iran and Gaza this last week in addition to winning his club’s golf tournament today
He’s on fire and will carry winners like Max Miller and Paxton over the line….
At least that’s the MAGA story….
This is a joke, right?
The political parties’ probable behavior, and related voter behavior, is a joke, right? Look who was just elected president twice, with congressional majorities both times. And what are the Dems offering? “At least we’re not Trump.” And? What about immigration — what’s the policy on offer? No Kamala word salad this time!
The USA is drifting toward the kind of no-good-choices menu that the UK has arrived at: two dominant parties performing like leaking airbags.
If Mish is correct on the Senate that the Democrats will have 55 senators in 2027 then 12 more senators need to vote to successfully remove Trump from office should he be impeached and assuming all Dems vote to have Trump removed. Fetterman the Democrat from Pennsylvania would likely vote to acquit so the the Dems would need 13 GOP senators to vote guilty.
I reviewed the 2028 class up for election and the percentages they won in their last election in ‘22 and nine GOP incumbents are vulnerable. This leaves two more vote from the GOP to convict.
Can the Democrats persuade two GOP senators to convict Donnie Do Wrong?
Jesus Christ Himself could return to earth for the express limited purpose of trying to get Trump removed from office, but even if He turned water into SuperPAC campaign donations and cured their herpes, Team R Senators would still vote to acquit, even if Trump admitted exposing himself to little boys.
he did a lot more that expose himself
agree. the MAGA cult will literally put a fatwa and murder contract on any Repug senator who dares vote to remove their cult leader. trump is bigger than jesus in flyover country. all evil empires crumble and end up in bloody messes………get your popcorn while you can afford it.
wait till ‘27 when Trump’s Medicaid and Medicare cuts hit. Those Boomers in flyover country will, dump him faster than Grant took Richmond.
hat tip for the charlie daniels’ lyrics. we boomers are resourceful. we had it tough. used to have to walk 10 feet over shag carpet to change channels on idiot boxes. no fancy remote controls in our youth. we will survive. i’ll put traps out to bag some fatties and become cannibal if need be.
LOL. You’ll never run out of fatties in the US. The quality of meat however…
They’re terrible eating’. You can get quite a bit of soap and candles out of one though.
“You can fool some of the people some of the time. You can fool all the people some of the time. But you can’t fool all the people all the time.” Abraham Lincoln
Trump cutting Medicaid and Medicare on MAGA therefore the Boomers will be his Waterloo despite the the talented Daniel’s lyrics.
Nah, it’ll be Obama’s fault, because.
A cane in one hand a rifle in the other.
Good….good…watch the Goyim argue below about their “elections”
(rubs hands together)
(evil laugh)
Looks like it could be a real nail biter in many races. You can bet a lot of recounts and law-fare. It’s still early. You never know if there will be an October surprise. Maybe Taco will reveal some teasing info on the UFO files and threaten that unless the R’s are elected he won’t reveal anymore.
Bro….Repub Senators are dying for Dems to take control so they can cry about how their hands are tied and Dems are obstructing…blah blah blah yada yada yada….we’re you born yesterday?
(just kidding)
Sadly, you’re correct. GOP hungers to govern from the losing end.
The GOP has lost the ability to govern. They can only criticize, carp and moan.
Really? What about this little war then? What about weaponizing government against the press, blue states, law firms and so on? Extorting fealty and contributions from corporations? What about big deregulation in finance, big tech and he environment? There is a little part of “governing” called the newly steroid-laced Executive Branch.
They are exhausted from trying to defend Trump.
Irritating crack about “White Racists like ICE Tactics”, Mish. We’re tired of seeing illegals released and not even charged here when popped on crimes while American facillitators of the cartel grows and activities do time. (This is a Sanctuary state) We are flooded with sympathetic cartel media stories in Oregon about all the “non-criminals” getting popped by ICE and you read further down in the story for the whitewashed truth. One man in Grants Pass caught and deported for the FOURTH TIME in 20 years, which marks him a federal felon, but continued sympathy and hand-wringing abounds. I guess his earlier Obama and Bush administration deportations weren’t racist? Meanwhile our Oregon Health Plan (medicaid) groans under Illegal Immigrant health and education costs and the hospitals are collapsing under poor pays and soaring patient loads. Unfortunately, enforcing the law against non-cooperative types doesn’t look pretty. Still, President Trump seems to be doing everything possible to ensure the final two years of his presidency are totally dead and over while he pushes policy totally at odds with what he ran on. It astounds me, really. The DSA candidates will make it worse, the GOP won’t defy Trump when a check and balance is badly needed.
DSA candidates could really ruin it for the dems. All the R’s have to say is, “see, I told you they were Communists”.
only in senate rates they were unlikely to win anyway.
But yes candidate selection poor in some outside chances, killing them
Mish, I think the U.S. population is corrupted enough that there’s more DSA support than we would want to believe. In America we’re only arguing about the degree of socialism and fascism, not whether there is socialism and fascism in the system. Wonder which firms get the NEXT “equity position” from our dear leaders?
The US population wants change. The policies of the last 40 years haven’t worked for them. They tried the right and Trump. That’s been and will continue to be an utter failure. Next they’ll try the DSA. Stop failing and you won’t get socialism.
During the most progressive administrations there were conservatives in Congress.Similarly, in what I would argue a wannabe fascist administration there will be DSA elected in ‘26 and ‘28.
Assuming Trump continues to defecate the political, economic and social beds as well as lose two wars, a realignment election is due.
The last realignment was St.Ronnie.
Should an economic crises occur or elections precipitated by creedal passion the nation will swing either progressive and further Left or far Right.
Creedal passion elections occur every sixty or so years. The last one was in the 60s.
They all have to go back…but under Trump very few will.
The ultimate solution will be very inexpensive.
How anyone can vote for that lazy eyed cheating pedophile Paxton is insane to me. Every Republican pick has been on board with death squads, endless spending, and infringement of states rights. It’s like they forgot what their entire party was.
Because of that, I will not be shocked if this is the end for the GOP as a party. What is there to vote for exactly? Unless you WANT this nation to look like a third world shithole people go out of their way to avoid like a pile of doggy doo, you can either vote Democrat or stay home. A total rethinking is needed.
True. Even foreign tourists are take their business elsewhere, bigly. Retirees are leaving. Scientists are leaving. I’m waiting for the Mag 7 to go abroad since much of that work can be done elsewhere and young people might like a change of atmosphere. Maybe they already have. I don’t know a lot about their overseas ventures other than call centers.
Ken Paxton is doing God’s work, and will beat Talafreako handily.
You forgot the /sarc after your post? Cornyn would have won this race hands down, even though far from my favorite.
Kool Aid drinkers never have anything meaningful to add to a conversation.
defend a pedo you are no better than a pedo
Being a crook is God’s work? Who knew.
Well we know you’re a pedophile Joe.
“How anyone can vote for that lazy eyed cheating pedophile Paxton is insane to me.”
Obviously, you’re not a homosexual Evangelical trying desperately not to get caught. Most of those folks end up in Texas for some reason.
RIght when i see you blather and post that Iowa is in play and that the Dem is +4 it’s laughable and i wish there were an easy non BTC polymarket way to bet. Same pollsters tried to make the claim Kamal was winning Iowa. My God, once you see Iowa not only in play but losing to the Dems by 4 this looks like the same old same old. I’ll agree things are shifting but that’s seismic and i’d like to bet a large sum it ain’t gonna happen. I remember the Red Wave blather, now it’s this seismic blue wave. Could be. But this country has been a coin toss for decades. Wisconsin’s governor’s race looks to be a race between a lunatic leftist vs a current reasonable-sounding representative. Doesn’t mean it won’t stay blue but the D’s that you are bandwagoning are getting more batty not less.
“Dems will get more batty!” You say as the President posts yet another picture of him constructing a literal golden calf statue, his third this week, before he goes off to a press conference to tell young voters how he’s done more for them than their parents.
2024 was a red wave for a reason. Biden as a demented fogey and his VP was high on Xanax. Now, the president is an even more demented fogey who’s policy is polling even worse with voters. If you can’t see the same writing on the wall that was there for Biden, you’re just a partisan idiot.
That’s why we have new parties like the DSA.
Democrats are good at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
On the other hand, watch the Governor election in Oregon. It could go Republican. In Oregon, it’s less about the national red vs blue dynamic and more about ineffective governance by the Dem at the state level. Oregon is exhibiting failed state attributes and the Democrats own it. The governor is very unpopular and in this cycle, there is not much in the way of a 3rd party candidate to gum up the works. Perhaps the same can be said about California.
I see Oregon voted down rank choice in 2024. I wonder if they are regretting that. If a republican gets in and F’s up they just may. It’s the only real way to crush the uniparty IMO.
In California: the “independent” MAGA-aligned reality TV candidate for Los Angeles governor (Pratt) was trounced this year: he never had a chance. That’s about ¼ of the CA voters right there.
Urban and coastal CA are not zombie farms like Portland, outside of very distinct areas. The failed state claims, based on my experience, are fringe fever dreams of GOP apparatchiks. I’m all over my SoCal urban area in breezy prosperity. As long as the state billionaire tax measure fails, the creatives and tax base stay, and the levee holds for Dems.
Trump is triggering a dangerous reaction. Mainstream Democrats lack money and enthusiasm This leaves us with the Socialists. There is the danger that some voters will feel that they have nothing to lose – in viewing what he’s done – especially with Iran. Now, add on the usual low voter turnout and things could get radical quickly. Total turnout in the NYC Mayoral election was less than a majority of voters – so strange things can happen
Democratic socialists will be in next decade because both parties have failed to deliver anything. Hell I’d vote for them. The Reagan style liberalism “you will own nothing and be happy” slop is unacceptable and unsustainable for a nation. Biden is right behind Trump for the title of worst president in the last century.
Every president post Reagan (exempting maybe Bush Sr.) has piled on the corporate socialist world order bullshit, and it’s just not workable anymore. Now we have a president who is taking government stakes in companies in what has been the textbook definition of fascism. If “radical” means “my government isn’t full of convicted criminals” I think most voters are ready to be “radical”.
Yes I was a repub for decades and I will vote democratic socialist from now on of the people by the people for the people not the billionaires or the pedos
that will be trump and magas true legacy and the only good thing they will do.
It will change either in the tax laws or in the streets.
The socialists aren’t winning because of socialism. They’re winning because they’re non Zionists. I’ll take my chances with a little socialism if it helps break the hold on our country held by foreign interests. Josh Turek in Iowa wouldn’t be much different than Joni Ernst in that regard.
Non-zionist and non-corporate are the same word.
Trump didn’t win the majority of the vote either. In electoral politics it is who gets the vote out and what class, what generation(s) turns out the most voters war/peace, economy, and where voters think the nation is headed that matters most.
As for Mamdani his polling is up since his election plus his election results suggest a strong showing across most of NYC rivaling plutocrat Bloomberg.
https://www.thecityreporter.nyc/2025/11/06/how-mamdani-won-map/
If the “normal” Democrats take the majority you have no reason to worry. The last time the Democrats held the full congress and the POTUS the ACA was approved by health insurance companies and the min wage stayed at 7.25 per hour. Don’t worry the mainstream democrats will continue the shitification of the US. Our real hope for a truer democracy, (one by the people devoted to the well being of all the citizens) would be to eliminate the Senate and increase the house to about 6000 members. Today a congress critter represents about 781,000 citizens to have an effect on how they vote you need a huge amount of people or easier, a shit ton of money. If they represented only 56,000 citizens we might actually have a voice.
Totally agree except for the Senate. You do need some continuity unless maybe you gave the House reps a longer term and staggered their elections. It does work in Nebraska, but that’s a small state. I suggest 3 senators so you can vote for a new one each cycle and a special clause that if one party holds more than 33% of seats then no one who has been a member of such party in the past 3 years may run. Or something to that effect. We can hash out the detail when we get rank choice voting. And Term Limits!!!
The Senate is very undemocratic in this century. CA has a population of almost 40M, WY, MT and AK have a combined population of less than 3M yet in the Senate those sparsely populated states have three times the power than a population 13 times greater. When there were 13 colonies joining together, all in the east, equal numerical representation might have made sense, today not so much.
Socialists are hardly attracting big money.
That said, I would take honest socialism over crony capitalism.
Socialism is an awful, stupid philosophy, that appeals only to poor-quality people. It is the politics of envy. But what I think some people may be forgetting is that the radical leftists are almost the only people defying the Jewish or Israeli control of politics in the Western world. At a time of old-fashioned slaughter in Gaza and elsewhere, that might get the extreme left some votes from people who are not nearly stupid enough to believe in socialism.
Then there are the people who don’t know any economics. Economics is a boring subject, and I think it has largely been discarded from education systems in the last few decades. People simply can’t tell you why socialism is unworkable or why inflation is bad.
Because they don’t let you rape children Arthur?
It’s not rape if you pay their pimps.
Did you only read my first sentence?
Yes, and after that it just kept getting worse.
You are a sick little monkey, no matter how indignant you get about having that pointed out.
That said, what does the first half of 2027 look like?
Nothing important will change. Even if peace breaks out in the Middle East it will be months if not years till oil is flowing fully again. So high oil and thus high prices/inflation for the first half of 2027.