The letters are scheduled to go out Monday.
The Economic Times reports Trump signs ‘take it or leave it’ tariff letters for 12 countries.
Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One en route to New Jersey, Trump declined to identify the countries receiving the letters, saying their names would be revealed on Monday.
“I signed some letters and they’ll go out on Monday, probably twelve,” he told reporters. “Different amounts of money, different amounts of tariffs.”
The plan marks a shift from earlier this week, when Trump had indicated that the first batch of letters would be sent on Friday — a national holiday — though the timing has now been revised.
Trump on Friday suggested the tariffs could go even higher, potentially reaching 70% for some countries, with most new rates expected to take effect from August 1.
The White House initially aimed to negotiate customized tariff deals with several nations, but frustrations over stalled talks with key players like Japan and the European Union appear to have prompted a change in approach.
“The letters are better … much easier to send a letter,” Trump said, indicating a preference for direct, unilateral communication over protracted negotiation rounds.
So far, Washington has concluded agreements with just two countries. The United Kingdom secured a deal in May to maintain the 10% base rate and obtained preferential treatment in sectors like automotive and aircraft engines. Vietnam also reached a deal, agreeing to a reduced tariff of 20%, down from a proposed 46%, and allowing duty-free entry for many U.S. goods.
We have no real deals, only a framework for a deal with only two countries.
So much for 90 deals in 90 days.
This is despite repeated statements by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that many good offers were coming in.
I look forward to the appeals court throwing these deals in the ashcan where they belong.
For discussion of the pending appeals court ruling please see The Trade Court Unanimously Strikes Down Trump’s Global Tariffs, Here’s Why
The court cited nondelegation doctrine, the major questions doctrine, narrow authority, flaws in trafficking tariffs, and “unusual and extraordinary” condition imposed by the IEEPA itself.
My follow-up post was Trump Gets a Meaningless Stay on Tariff Ruling, What Are His Options?
The en banc court (full appeals court) has final arguments on July 31. Normally cases are 3 of 11 justices deciding.
Trump cultists will never care about reality, only about fellating the great orange Cheetoh. DXY could flirt with 0.70 and 80% of Americans would have no idea that was even dangerous at all. Stupidity is the new American civilian default state.
Which Appeals Court?
The US dollar is about to crash even more, shrinking the US share of world consumption again.
Dictators ~ dictate their terms. Dealmakers ~ negotiate and honor the terms of an agreement.
Dictator Donny can’t make more than two “deals” in six months, so he has to bring out his ego pen and show off his Humpty Dumpty signature pad.
No wonder our exports fell 5.9% and foreign tourism to the U.S. is crashing. People do not like to travel to and spend their money where the military grabbing people off the streets, arresting them, denying due process and putting them in prisons.
Random search and seizure is being employed by Trump and his henchmen.
Why should any nation negotiate with Trump the deal breaker?
Because he is not to be trusted.
Why negotiate? Market size and access to that market.
The US is very dependent on many countries for many critical materials that we cannot produce enough of ourselves: rare earth items, aluminum, potash, lumber (to name a few). If other countries decide to restrict exports of critical items that we need, then we must negotiate with them.
For example, we were forced to negotiate with China to regain access to many rare earth items that they had recently cut off.
There’s a difference between cannot and choose not. Look it up.
Such a sophisticated debate technique, do you teach your magical ways for a fee?
It works both ways. The world is a big market.
Trump should surprise everyone and put a 200% tariff on Israel.
Or maybe on everything you buy.
That land you’ve wanted to buy in Jerusalem is going to come way down in price soon.
Of course you’re a king.
You can bully but you can’t have their soul.
Look at the BRICS. Countries are lining up to join.
BRICSs are larger and stronger than G7.
Yes, while you’re a hammer . . . . .
The ballyhooed agreement with Vietnam will result in a 20% tariff. If the rest of the so-called deals are this “good”, US consumers better be ready to pay out the wazoo.
Trump built a “camp” for criminal illegals. Ice will pack them like sardines. Demand for rent, edu and healthcare will tank, especially in dems states. Austria and Germany will expel criminal Syrians. Germany was invaded by 1M Syrians. Trump and the Europeans support Lebanon and Syria. Erdogan can no longer blackmail the Europeans. Israel and Syria and Israel and Lebanon might sign a peace treaty. The Gulf states don’t have the money to invest in the US and buy weapons.
Trump is a president who can communicate with blue collar workers eye to eye, in a soft voice, with a few short punch lines so that uneducated people can understand. It’s an art. MSM and the Libertarians think that Trump is a retard. He likes the center stage. He is charismatic. He doesn’t like to be too close to people. He likes a safe distance. Trump is a loner on a mission. He built a wall. His voters are crazy about him bc he never lied to them like most politicians.
He’s The Idiot Whisperer.
Taco bell: promise made promise kept !
I must be mistaken. I thought this article was about Trump’s claims about tariffs and trade deals, and what actually happened. But heck, why not just veer radically into some tangent? I do that somewhat, I think we all do, but there is a thing called a “topic.”
Trump’s durable ability to market himself to domestic blue collar workers is absolutely not the issue here, or maybe I accidentally imbibed hallucinogens.
Skip !
Trump is on the right track. The tariffs will slow the global economy, which will lower inflation and lower interest rates world wide. The US will benefit from higher pay for blue collar workers and lower interest rates. This was the magic of the 90s.
The magic of the 90s was that today’s 75 year old boomer was at their professional peak and working. Nobody was deliberately “slowing the global economy” in the 90s, FFS.
I’m going with SocalJim. I would hang my hat on a booming blue collar over the boomers.
In the U.S. the “magic” during that decade was peak earning/spending for boomers combined with the internet-driven stock boom and the fall of the U.S.S.R..
Timing is (nearly) everything.
I agree. All of this isn’t going to be easy to pull off, and it’s a shame that Trump’s not getting bipartisan support. 91% of GOP believe they are patriots compared to just 50% of Dems. Implementing policies that make us less reliant on China by ensuring we manufacture more strategic goods, again, should be bipartisan. All of this intransigence on the part of the Dems demonstrates how badly they loath America.
91% of the GOP. if they actually believe trump, are mentally ill cult members. I think in reality your 91% is actually 30% or less of true believers the other 60% are just trying to stay out of trumps way.
86/47
The magic of the 90s was not higher pay for Blue Collar workers. If it was, every country in the world would quickly raise wages to obtain this ‘magic’.
The true magic of the 90s was interconnected computer systems. The rise in productivity from that was extraordinary.
The magic of the 90s was most countries had slow economies so imports were cheap and global rates were low. We are going to get that again.
After 35 years in the investment business, my part time retirement job is selling imported frozen fruits and vegetables by the container load, for my brother’s import / export business. Needless to say, I have not made a sale since January due to this tariff insanity. How do you price a product for delivery in 6 to 8 weeks when you have have no idea what your tariff costs might be? I am perplexed regarding how this increase in costs and reduction in supply has not yet shown up in the CPI, but am confident that it eventually will.
Of course foreign counties will retaliate, hurting US exporters, their profits, and willingness to hire workers. The recent budget legislation will accelerate deficits and cause an upward bias in interest rates and / or erode confidence in the Us Dollar, exacerbating inflation.
Demand destruction in healthcare as 5% – 10% of the population lose access will drive up costs for those insured, and their employers.
All to further concentrate wealth in the oligarch 1%. How is this not a recipe for a severe stagflationary recession resulting in political and social discord?
No big deal. There is always uncertainty in forward markets. You should know this from the investment business. If you were good in the investment business, you should be able to put the right price on the forward deal.
What say you put up the money to hedge Trump’s mercurial tariff policy. After all, its no big deal. If you knew anything about investments you would know that it is impossible to hedge totally unpredictable outcomes.
But, in the investment business, if you are worth your salt, you will be good at guessing the forward price. That is how the game works.
Maybe the fundamental problem here is … trying to import something that doesn’t need to be imported?
“Always uncertainty”? All uncertainties about future states of the world are not equal, as is reflected in the changing price of hedges, and the whole world of pricing and finance. It is not as second-grade simple as your brain tells you it is (and a real life actual business person just outlined right here). Remind me not to have you value anything for me.
Have you traded the forward market on Wall Street? Traders make the big money who, on average, get the right forward price. There is no perfect hedge … That is reality.
So who is making all the sales then in frozen fruits and vegetables if you aren’t?
Stores still have plenty of these so we are getting them from somewhere.
I ask myself that question every day.
How does one plan anything when no one knows what their dollar is going to be worth in a year?
You should just call a sell side desk. They will sell you a forward that will perfectly hedge your exposure for a price. Just call them. That is what everyone else is doing. Then, you will know your price and the business continues on.
There is no futures or forward contracts on frozen french fries, peppers, or strawberries. Even if there were, the uncertainty would cause exorbitant pricing in a business with small margins, typically under 5%. Your perfect hedge is fantasy.
Does not matter. Sell side desks will sell you an over the counter forward on nearly anything, as long as you have enough size. Does not need to be a listed instrument.
I imagine the BRICs are delighted with the tariffs. They have to be driving many countries into their sphere.
86/47
90 days to make a deal and only two countries even bothered to show up. Maybe the US isn’t as important as it thinks it is.
No bs with Iran and the 12 musketeers. MSM can’t stop laughing, deflating and attacking Trump. JP will cut rates. DXY will rise. CL and gold will fall. Higher realized gains and payroll taxes, higher tariffs, smaller gov, lower rates and $5T in new reserves After he signed BBB in July 4th, makes America secured in the next downturn.
Talk is cheap. How much money do you have on this extravagant compound probability scenario? Be honest.
The Earth is finite, and humanity is fast approaching its ecological limits. Unless we learn to live together in mutual respect and cooperation, we risk pushing our planet—and life as we know it—to the brink of collapse. We face a clear choice: unite to safeguard our shared future, or spiral into chaos and decline through division, denial, and extremism. For better or worse, America remains a global example. Which path it chooses will echo far beyond its borders.
Let’s hold hands and sing Kumbiya.
Conversely, let’s go pedal to the medal, singing TX fight songs so loud we don’t have to think.
Go ask Putin, Xi & the Ayatollah what they think about our approaching the earth’s ecological limits?
More threats from TACO. Given his past capitulations, will these countries continue to buy what he purports to be selling?
There is no safeguard for any counter-party, especially with this docile and spineless Congress, and numb electorate. There is no price to pay (from Trump’s POV) for him to go 180 on anything, at any time. Best trade deal ever, by his words? He hangs it over a cliff in any direction, at will. He pivots inside one news cycle. At some point, some cost and uncertainty level, the rest of the world is incentivized to throw up its hands and figure out how to go elsewhere, even if the alternative sucks.
Now that Trump knows what TACO means, I think he will no longer capitulate.
The show just doesn’t stop.
No straightforward announcements, just teasers and cliffhangers to excite the people’s emotions. Then the big reveal, which is almost always a flop/underwhelming. Get past TACO commentary by moving on to the next “big” teaser!
All the US has to do is withdraw its navy from protecting global trade, and global trade will stop instantly. No insurance company will insure ships without some protection convention from the US. The Europeans don’t have the means, and the Chinese don’t have ships for long operations.
That wouldn’t be to show to the other countries how important the US is in global trade (essentially it’s its only guardian), but to show to some miserable Americans how important their own country is.
The Europeans didn’t even have the means to stop the Houthis, who were a big threat for their commerce. And a glance at the energy situation of Germany and the UK shows how pathetically fragile their current economic structures are.
“Partners” my ass…
I am not worried. The EU’s are going to cut themselves off completely of Russian oil and gas, so they can gorge on Saudi/UAE supplies. It is as if someone has opened lunatic asylums, and put the inmates in the government, or all alumni of Soros university.
General Gorilla fleet left the Hoothies and move near Iran and Israel. After losing Hezbollah and Syria the Ayatollah has only the Hoothies left. The Hoothies are training special forces and building deadlier long range missiles to terrorize the west. Most of the Gulf states, ex Qatar, budget deficit is growing. To protect himself the unstable MBS kissed the Ayatollah ass. Trump can’t trust MBS.
It may be MBS doesn’t want some undefined level of general chaos in the region. That kind of crumbling lawless scenario should be very scary for anyone nearby, on any side. The chips can fall in all kinds of directions. Nation-breaking is fast and easy for major tech-enabled powers, as the USA has demonstrated it time and again. Nation-building is infinitely more complex, difficult and costly, as we showed in those same instances.
You don’t really think the U.S. beat the Houthis, do you? The U.S. declared victory after planes kept sinking to the ocean floor. After the Houthis almost shot down an F35, Trump declared victory and pulled out.
Your crystal ball is cracked.
Since when does the USN guard maritime routes? The last time it tried, the Houti tribes put it to run and they still control maritime routes.
12 countries will send back an email saying they’re not going to sell anything to the US in exchange for printed fiat bucks.
Then more products will be made in the USA.
Maybe, eventually. Sure they’ll cost a lot more and be of lower quality. But then the buyers will just be Americans, so who cares?
Just wave a wand, huh? What will the pay scale be for the robot “employees”?
Who’s auditioning to be the Fed chair??
Bessent: “The president is the most economically sophisticated president certainly for 100 years, perhaps in history.”
And yet somehow he has the vocabulary of a small child.
That’s a requirement for this administration.
Bessent is a sophisticated cheer leader.
Is this the way you negotiate with partners and allies? I’m not sure about any of you, but when I negotiate with friends, neighbors, and family members over something that requires compromise, I look for a win-win outcome so that all parties walk away feeling good about the result. I would never try to leverage or threaten people with whom I desire to have a good relationship going forward, to try to get the upper hand in the short term.
Free trade was tooted as win-win when it wasn’t. Trade with our partners was asymmetric so it was not win-win.
Really? Please compare U.S. growth, inflation, and per capita wealth over the last 20 years with the European Union and Japan, and tell me who got the better end of free trade.
Look at where the wealth has been concentrating over the last forty years. The middle class is disappearing and the poor class is growing.
So, how does souring our trade relations with our trading partners and adding a tax to the supply chain that supplies Americans with goods help rectify the problem that you correctly identified? Think about the recently announced “trade deal” with Vietnam. Vietnamese consumers received a tax cut on American goods, while American consumers faced a 20-30% tax on goods purchased from Vietnam, which are mostly apparel items that will likely never be manufactured in the U.S. again. How does this help the American middle and lower class? If Republicans actually wanted to help the American worker, they would need to be supportive of worker Unions again, instead of undermining employee unions every chance they get.
Free trade is always win-win.
Any broad economic claim might always be appended with the question, “for who”? Certainly the momentum in the USA for Trump and his voters is to differ from what you asserted. If enough people believe and act on something, how does that affect your equation?
We tried it your way and it was an absolute failure, America was being ripped off by our “allies”……….President Trump is doing it differently, and it is working MUCH better.
How so?
But Trump is mercantilist – not interested in good relationships – only interested in procuring his aims for the U.S.
Before, it took years just to get to the framework. Now it took only a few months. The rest will come quickly. If they don’t want to discuss then they pay the tariff.
Is this a negotiation or a shakedown?
It’s a user fee. Before it was free but because of abuse we now put a fee on access to our market.
Afee on another country that US citizens pay?
Genius move.
Has inflation gone up?
It is just magic thinking to pretend that putting a 10,20 or 30%+ tariff (tax) to be paid at U.S. ports by the receiving buyer will not increase the overall costs that consumers pay.
In what asset class? Always pertinent to ask. They are rarely even.
Yes. The statistics just haven’t caught up with reality yet.
Hell yes! Does the trump admin lie hell yes!
86/47
Yes – the Administration has 2 goals:
1) To punish the foreign exporter by making their item expensive for Americans, and
2) To force American citizens and companies to “do without” the item until an American-made item is available.
Absolutely
The first new primary aluminum smelter to be built in the us since 1980, will begin construction in 2026 and begin producing 600,000 tons of aluminum in 2031. If built, the smelter would consume 10 Twh of electricity per year. Chances of it being competitive are slim unless it receives subsidized electricity. High electricity prices are the main reason that 28 aluminum smelters have closed since 1980. Only 4 are still operating.
In the meantime, we will continue to import 4-5 million tons of aluminum every year because we cannot produce enough domestically. And we are currently putting a 50% tariff on that imported aluminum.
the Administration has 2 goals:
1) To punish the foreign exporter by making their item expensive for Americans
2) To force American citizens and companies to “do without” the item until an American-made item is available.
The US currently imports over 50% of the aluminum it consumes. And we will do so for the foreseeable future. US companies that must import their aluminum, pay the 50% tariff on this aluminum.
US manufacturers cannot “do without” this aluminum unless they want to shut down their business. They are the ones being punished; not the foreign aluminum exporter.
A country can do wondrous things in electricity if they are willing to do things like quadrupling electricity via coal while using that to buy time and expand renewables too. (China)
What’s the plan here in the U.S. not just for aluminum but all of the other needs? What can we accomplish economically, politically. Gonna need to be bold.
Gonna need to be bold. Yes.
China has a plan to dramatically increase electricity production every year, and to increasingly electrify their economy. We have no plan.
China is building 30 new nuclear power plants right now and has plans for 30 more. We are building zero new plants, and have zero planned.
China is building more solar and wind capacity than the rest of the world combined every year. Trump is doing his best to stop US wind and solar.
China has already built 26000 miles of high speed electric train tracks and will increase it to 40000 miles in the next ten years. We have zero. And no plan.
China builds 31 million cars per year. Last year over 12 million of those were EV/PHEV. This year it will be 15 million. They have 11 million charging locations and are adding 3 million more per year. What is the US plan?
Ten years ago, 70% of China’s electricity was from coal. Today it is 50%. In another 10 years it will be 30% from coal. The majority of China’s electricity will soon be from renewables.
China dominates the world in all things electric; and it was all planned.
The US has no plan for competing with China in this area. Other than to put tariffs on Chinese exports of solar panels, batteries, electronics, cars, etc. Making them more expensive for us to buy.
We’re funding our MIC, so we can win a war against them and take possession of all they have created. This is payback for all the IP China stole from the US.
Ok.
American corporations are planning another 5% additional profit next quarter by scamming the American people. All America is a giant scam.
86/47
You must have the inside info. Is that in the ABA newsletter?
I see that Quebec has a plan. They just signed a 20 year low-price electricity deal with an aluminum company that already produces 625,000 tons of Al per year. The company will invest another 1.5 billion over two decades to expand production. The Quebec govt will share in the profits during good times, while the low cost power will subsidize the company during lean times.
What is our plan?
That makes sense.
But I don’t think the Administration cares about the problems for US manufacturers.
They are setting trade policy with the world, and expect Americans to fall in behind them.
I.e., they do not care if US companies fail.
Correct. Based on these policies, they don’t care if US businesses fail.
The administration consistently says that they want to encourage US manufacturing of aluminum and steel.
I do not see how they are incentivizing that other than to place tariffs on imports.
Theoretically, this could encourage investment in new steel and aluminum production in the US, which would cost many billions and take a decade to implement. The problem is, the investor needs to know that the tariffs will remain in place a decade from now. Otherwise, the investment isn’t worth it. So I don’t expect much investment in steel or aluminum.
The administration also wants to encourage US manufacturing that uses steel and aluminum as inputs.
Putting 50% tariffs on their inputs only makes them less competitive.
Trump was pushing the tariffs as a cover for his BBB, so he could justify extending his 2017 tax cuts and adding new ones.
Now that those tax cuts have been locked in, is there any reason to continue messing with tariffs?
Trump seems to think so.
You all should be jumping for joy when these tarrifs when they hit the markets. If you have capital to deploy that is. Last tarrif dip I bought heavy and got a nice pay out. Can we get a round two please
Correct. Always take advantage of the opportunity.
I dunno. Maybe some foreign businesses will have the guts to use the TACO moniker because the tariffs take effect in an extra 3 weeks instead of on the 9th, but I’m gonna bet that instead they have a polite chat with their own governments to make a deal.
What a mental midget this clown is.
FYI……
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0?ui=2&ik=f3c786ef9a&attid=0.1&permmsgid=msg-a:r-8599071652240446167&th=197daa268e2978d1&view=fimg&fur=ip&permmsgid=msg-a:r-8599071652240446167&sz=s0-l75-ft&attbid=ANGjdJ_mjnKe1EUqLc1U3eUDCx-m0RX99Gp0NQeMKaRAqMeDSZ7XsVDqr0dsrz37rC4cXKaCTFh-LaV_7hWGadle4cbVZkoO-ETcQPul0KPx9b08rsnZ–IGyFX-guA&disp=emb&realattid=ii_mcq8n9cv0&zw