I expected to get two posts out of this but I wasn’t fast enough.
July 9 Reciprocal Tariff Date Set
On June 11, Bloomberg reported Trump Says Again He’ll Set Unilateral Tariffs in Two Weeks
President Donald Trump said he intended to send letters to trading partners in the next one to two weeks setting unilateral tariff rates, ahead of a July 9 deadline to reimpose higher duties on dozens of economies.
“We’re going to be sending letters out in about a week and a half, two weeks, to countries, telling them what the deal is,” Trump told reporters Wednesday at the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington where he was attending a performance.
“At a certain point, we’re just going to send letters out. And I think you understand that, saying this is the deal, you can take it or leave it,” he added.
Rocking in Terms of Deals!
Similarly, the Wall Street Journal reported, Trump Says U.S. Could Set Tariff Rates for Trading Partners Soon
“We’re rocking in terms of deals,” Trump said. But he added: “Now, at a certain point, we’re just going to send letters out. And I think you understand that, saying: ‘This is the deal. You can take it or you can leave it.‘”
Asked about the next potential trade deal, the president said the U.S. was dealing with about 15 countries, including Japan and South Korea. “But as you know, we have about 150-plus, and you can’t do that. So we’re going to be sending letters out in about a week and a half, two weeks, to countries telling them what the deal is like I did with EU,” he said.
Observation of the Day
It’s easy to make 300 deals in a day when you make deals with yourself.
Then again, one truly has to wonder.
What if you keep changing your mind?
TACO Trump Strikes Again
On July 12, Newsweek reported Trump Tariffs Face Delay as White House Struggles To Meet 90-Deals Deadline
Bessent told the House Ways and Means Committee on June 11 that if the U.S. trading partners who are negotiating a deal with Washington are doing so “in good faith,” it is “highly likely” that “we will roll the day forward to continue the good faith negotiations.”
I failed to notice it at the time, but the Bloomberg headline above was negated by Newsweek one day later.
How long has this been going on?
April 17, 2025: Trump Wants 90 Trade Deals in 90 Days. How Realistic Is That?
The administration says we are on “Trump time”. Any bets?
April 25, 2025: Trump Tells Time Magazine He Has Made 200 Deals Already, Refused to Name Any
Check out this incredible interview with Time.
May 8, 2025: Fact Check on Trump’s Claim “We Don’t Do Much Business with Canada”
“We don’t do much business with Canada from our standpoint, they do a lot of business with us.”
5D Strategy Idea
As amazing as it may seem, I have come up with a genuine 5D strategy concept.
Q: Really? What’s that?
A: Keep delaying until Mid-August.
Q: What does that do?
A: On July 31, the full appeals court will hear final arguments on the legality of reciprocal tariffs.
Q: Then what?
A: Trump will ultimately lose, and he can blame the courts for lack of deals!
Is this brilliant 5D thinking or what?
Meanwhile, countries are not stupid. All they have to do is pretend they are negotiating in good faith just as Trump pretends he is making deals.
I happen to have a musical tribute.
Wow! What great vocals and the perfect tribute to one of the greatest pretenders this nation has ever seen.
Trump pretends to make deals with himself and the latest pretend deal threat lasted precisely one day.
TACOs in the News
Yesterday, I noted TACO Trump Backs Down on Farm and Hotel Worker Deportations
Trump is suddenly worried about “impossible to replace hotel workers”.
To avoid more TACOs, hopefully Bessent gets the message to delay the July 9 tariffs until we have a court ruling.
Related Posts
May 28, 2025: Court of International Trade Strikes Down Trump’s Liberation Day Tariffs
This is an enormous ruling. 5 Reasons the court is correct.
May 28, 2025: The Court Unanimously Strikes Down Trump’s Global Tariffs, Here’s Why
Let’s discuss Trump’s rationale for the tariffs and the court ruling.
June 6, 2025: Reciprocal Tariffs Are Dead, but Trump Has 7 Other Options to Discuss
Enjoy the Stay
If the appeals court ruling is wide enough the Supreme Court may not even hear a further appeal.
For now, the Appeals Court granted a stay. But Trump paused reciprocal tariffs again anyway.
It will be amusing to see who gets letters and who doesn’t.
Then on July 31, the full “en banc” appeals court will take final arguments. Normally appeals are heard by a random selection of three judges from a panel of 11. En banc hearings are reserved for critical issues.
I wonder if the Appeals Court will work with the Supreme Court to come up with a ruling such that the SC has no fault with it and declines to hear the case.
This is speculation on my part, but I expect Trump will lose by a wide margin if the SC takes the case.
Since the SC will not want to upset Trump, a carefully crafted “en banc” ruling would eliminate the need for the SC to even hear Trump’s appeal.
The voters voted to take a Trump TACO over a Biden/Harris shit burrito.
Trump signed a trade deal with the UK at the G7. Then he proceeded to leave the G7 a day early for a certain reason which is now making headlines.
Ruh Rho!
Will Bessent be smirking at those congressional harridans once again?
recall Trump April 9 stating tariffs will be applied in 90 days??
So, really, how is this any different than his “Liberation Day” list?
A guarantee of US isolation and minimalized influence.
Old guy gonna go to the stationary cabinet and get out the fanciest letterhead, write a number on it, sign it with a sharpie, put it into a nice fancy envelope, stick it full of stamps and mail it off…
that’ll scare those furriners
The Donald needs to be constantly reminded of the movie line from PINOCCHIO. “Quit Telling Those Whoppers”
I am sure you have noticed that a lot has been happening lately that doesn’t have to do with trade but with geopolitical realignments and possible oil supply ruptures. That distracts all leaders foreign and domestic away from trade issues to more immediate concerns. Trade is on the back burner for the moment but it will come back once the Israel-Iran war settles out. Hard to make a deal when you don’t know how much your country will be paying for oil. European governments seem to have finally understood that the tariff is not a negotiating position to get a general lowering of tariffs between the US and Europe but is actually a tariff that will stay on. Since Congress reneged on cuts Trump will use tariffs to help fill the budget deficit. They are negotiating over how much and on which industries.
“Hard to make a deal when you don’t know how much your country will be paying for oil.”
Especially if Iran closes off the straight. Then the US Navy can ‘open’ it up for oil tankers bound for fast friends (countries that have signed tariff deals) while deliberately delaying tankers bound for non-committal friends (those who have yet to sign tariff deals).
Imagine how quick deals get signed when tankers bound for the UK get speedy passage while those bound for China/EU get delayed an extra week or so for ‘safety’ reasons.
IMHO, it’s no coincidence that Israel was green lighted this attack right around the time that things are coming to a head with China over rare earths (can you say rare earth access for unimpeded oil flow).
there is no safe way to transit the strait in “war” conditions–piloting a 400m long ship for 6 to 10 hours while confined to a 3km wide “lane”
besides, the insurers are the one that decide if the ships should run
think of it as Iran’s rare earth mineral
since China and Iran are buddies so guess which country will have an easy passage
Ok but why haven’t they done it already? They are being are being pounded and much of their leadership is dead so you would think they would be cutting off the Strait but they haven’t. It is not about being nice. Maybe they can’t. Maybe the Iranian navy doesn’t want to. There is a lot going on behind the scenes that we don’t know about. I have remarked that no Iranian naval assets have been bombed by Israel except a certain part of its headquarters in Tehran. Other than that the Iranian Naval has not been touched. Curious don’t you think?
You are certainly right on that! Trump said that he gave Iran 60 days to make a deal and when the 60 days were up we saw what happened. The G-7 are all around a table in Canada today and that could explain their worried expressions. Trump gave them 60 days too to make a decision and it will be up soon. Not a fun time to be a European leader now.
“Fast Friends” ??? Thanks to Trumps random lashing out at our former friends and allies we have only two fast-ish friends left. Israel and Great Britain.
Even Canada no longer trusts us and in locations where I have property, Canadians are selling their U.S. based assets and repatriating their dollars back to Canada.
I know a woman from Canada that has roughly $220 million U.S. dollars invested in the U.S. She is selling all of her assets here and taking her money home.
Taco Gestapo apparently can’t walk and chew gum at the same time
Yes he can. I saw him do it.
I had hoped we’d get at least one of those 90 deals in 90 days done before July 1. I’m heading off for my summer sailing trip all of July so I’ll be offline most of the time unless something dramatic happens and I need to change my market positions and come online.
The fallback was the court decisions but that’s getting pushed back too. oh well…
We will have to eventually have a post about how you knew all long we would get this result putting him in charge of anything.
TACO capitulates once again. At least he is batting 1,000 standing behind his word.
Markets have learned to ignore him.
Are there still Trump supporters who take the USA and themselves seriously?
How Tariffs Are Breaking US TradeA Detailed Look at How US Trade Flows Are Unraveling Amidst Trump’s Trade War
https://www.apricitas.io/p/how-tariffs-are-breaking-us-trade
No fair!
Hey, be thankful he didn’t call Trump the Tangerine Terrorist, an apt moniker
Market ATHs must be preserved. Love the Humpty Dumpty image. Proving folks can vote for a candidate, over the terrible other candidate, and still appreciate the blog and images. I labeled him Captain Caveman long before TACO became popular. Populism is a devilish thing when you are always searching for approval and more populism.
The tariff stories look an awful lot like the Fed jawboning approach.
Trumpty Dumpty