Trump silently modifies tariff policy, brushing aside the trade war hawks.
Tiptoe Through the Tariffs
The Wall Street Journal reports The U.S. Is Tiptoeing Away From Many of Trump’s Signature Tariffs
The Trump administration is quietly watering down some of the tariffs that underpin the president’s signature economic policy.
President Trump in recent weeks has exempted dozens of products from his so-called reciprocal tariffs and offered to carve out hundreds more goods from farm products to airplane parts when countries strike trade deals with the U.S.
The offer to exempt more products from tariffs reflects a growing sentiment among administration officials that the U.S. should lower levies on goods that it doesn’t domestically produce, say people familiar with administration planning. That notion “has been emerging over time” within the administration, said Everett Eissenstat, deputy director of the National Economic Council in Trump’s first term. “There is definitely that recognition.”
The move comes ahead of a Supreme Court hearing in early November on the reciprocal tariffs—a case that could force the administration to pay back many of the levies if it loses in court. The White House, Commerce Department and U.S. Trade Representative’s office didn’t respond to requests for comment.
The shift on the reciprocal tariffs reflects the Trump team’s desire to hedge its bets should the court strike down its broad levies, according to people familiar with the administration’s thinking. At the same time, Trump’s team is expanding its use of tariffs based on more established legal authority: Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. Trump has already deployed that law to underpin tariffs on metals and automobiles, and this month announced a new tranche of duties aimed at heavy trucks, pharmaceuticals and furniture.
On Friday, Trump unveiled his latest action under Section 232, imposing 25% tariffs on trucks and truck parts, as well as 10% tariffs on buses, effective Nov. 1. As part of that action, Trump also expanded a tariff relief program for automakers, allowing them to apply for credits to partially offset the cost of tariffs on car and truck parts until 2030, instead of 2027.
Last month, Trump issued new exemptions for products from gold to LED lights and certain minerals, chemicals and metal products via a list called “Annex II” that includes many products that are or will be covered by the Section 232 levies.
He also previewed hundreds of potential exemptions to come in the future: The order includes a list of products that could receive zero tariffs under trade agreements with foreign nations that are being negotiated by Trump’s team. That list, dubbed “Annex III,” is aimed at “products that cannot be grown, mined, or naturally produced in the United States,” the order states, such as “certain agricultural products; aircraft and aircraft parts; and non-patented articles for use in pharmaceutical applications.”
The September order also allows new authority to the Department of Commerce and the U.S. Trade Representative’s office to grant tariff exemptions themselves, without Trump himself issuing executive orders mandating the new carve-outs.
The move will help streamline tariff policy, a White House official said, so the administration doesn’t need to issue an executive order for every group of exemptions as it implements over a dozen trade deals Trump has announced, or arrives at new pacts.
For months, administration officials led by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick had insisted there would be “no exemptions, no exceptions” from Trump’s so-called reciprocal duties, originally announced in April. Lutnick has softened his stance publicly, saying in a late July television appearance that “if you grow something and we don’t grow it, that can come in for zero.”
Candy giant Hershey said in May that it was “engaging with the U.S. government” to seek an exemption for cocoa. Duties on the commodity have added to problems for the Pennsylvania chocolatier, which also has been grappling with high prices for its core ingredient, and the company said it was using every lever at its disposal to get cocoa tariffs changed.
Certain tuna products are among the goods now potentially eligible for tariff exemptions. Mecs said that exceptions for foods like tuna are particularly important as the Trump administration pushes its “Make America Healthy Again” agenda.
“There are a lot of healthy food products that are largely imported,” he said.
Synopsis
- President Trump is shifting his trade policy by exempting dozens of products from tariffs and offering more carve-outs for trade deals.
- The administration is expanding tariff use under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, covering heavy trucks, pharmaceuticals, and furniture.
- New orders allow the Commerce Department and U.S. Trade Representative’s office to grant tariff exemptions, streamlining the process.
Musical Tribute
Wait a Second
Hold on! What happened to the grand plans?
Please recall Lutnick Says Tariffs Can Eliminate the IRS and Balance the Budget
Lutnick: “We’re going to make the External Revenue Service replace the Internal Revenue Service.”
To balance the budget and eliminate personal income taxes, Trump would need to collect $7 trillion in tariffs on a net trade deficit of $918 billion.
I would love to hear a detailed explanation of exactly how that works.
Trumps Claims
- Tariffs will increase revenue enough to balance the budget
- Tariffs will bring manufacturing back to the US
- Tariffs will reduce inflation
- Tariffs will increase exports
The explanation never came as to how those conflicting goals work. Since then, we have since had two new claims.
Two New Claims
- Tariffs will be rebated to consumers.
- Tariffs will pay for farmer bailouts.
I am no longer convinced Trump will lose in court. Too much time has passed.
Curiously, Trump actions are such that it won’t matter much either way. I have discussed ways that Trump can use Section 232 levies instead.
Also, as noted above, Trump is backing down in many ways on his own accord.
Finally, as stupid as aluminum and steel tariffs are, the Supreme Court may not want to buck Trump on fake national security issues.
Full Appeals Court Rules 7-4 Against Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs
On August 29, I commented Full Appeals Court Rules 7-4 Against Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs
In a very much expected (by me) ruling, the appeals court rejects Trump’s global tariffs.
Surprise Not
Please consider what I wrote on June 10 in Justice Department Asks Appeals Court to Let Trump Tariffs Remain for Longer
The word tariff is not even in the act. Nor are synonyms like duties.
Second, there is no emergency. An emergency is a sudden unexpected crisis. Trade deficits have existed for decades.
Third, there is no unusual or extraordinary threat. Trump has even imposed tariffs on nations with which we have no trade deficit including islands inhabited only by penguins.
Fourth, there is lack of a clear authorization by Congress to grant Trump such authority. The applicable principle involved is called “major question”.
The Tax foundation estimates the cost of Trump’s tariffs to be over $2 trillion. If that’s not a “major question” then what is?
This is a similar to the setup in which Biden attempted to suspend student loans that would also have an impact of $400 billion.
Trump seeks a bigger than any previous Supreme Court “major question” ruling including student loans.
Finally, we get to the issue of delegation. The Supreme Court has ruled that Congress has no authority to simply giving away its constitutional rights.
Unfortunately, that does not stop other foolish actions.
Trump Needs an Activist Court to Win
I discussed this on August 27, in Can Trump’s Tariff Revenues Help Pay for the Federal Budget Deficit?
It would be amazing if the appeals court ruled for Trump. But the key question is how the Supreme Court will rule.
Recall that the Court ruled against Biden on student loans largely on the basis of the “major question”. There are even more reasons to strike the idea here.
However, although it’s constitutionally clear, a ruling against Trump is by no means certain.
Ironies Abound
The Appeals court even cited the case I mentioned of Biden’s student loans. If the court allowed this, then it should have allowed student loans. And who knows what Democrats will do if the President is always right.
The decision, even if upheld by the Supreme Court, won’t cancel all of Trump’s second-term tariffs. Alongside the so-called reciprocal tariffs, Trump has also imposed a number of levies on industries including automobiles, steel, aluminum and copper under a separate national security authority.
The first irony is Trump moans about an activist court. But it will take an activist Supreme Court to allow Trump’s reciprocal tariffs.
The second irony is that even if Trump wins in court, not much will have changed. Trump is backing down in many ways, but also triggering Section 232 actions that are definitely more valid (albeit still economically foolish).
The third irony is Republicans may not like the results down the road if Trump scores a complete win. Who knows what tariffs the next Democrat may undertake on grounds of fake climate emergencies?
I wonder if there is some sort of compromise ruling by the Supreme Court allowing everyone to declare victory (or moan).
Here’s the key point: If Trump can declare fake emergencies, why can’t the next Democrat president?
lots of good stuff from Mish here, but the last sentence should be read by EVERYBODY
Too high expectations, too soon
The future is much further away than the time it takes to assemble a data center
Hallucinations and AI
Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting has been shown to improve Large Language Model (LLM) performance on various tasks. With this approach, LLMs appear to produce human-like reasoning steps before providing answers (a.k.a., CoT reasoning), which often leads to the perception that they engage in deliberate inferential processes…..Our results reveal that CoT reasoning is a brittle mirage that vanishes when it is pushed beyond training distributions. This work offers a deeper understanding of why and when CoT reasoning fails, emphasizing the ongoing challenge of achieving genuine and generalizable reasoning…
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2508.01191
How much has Trump’s tariffs collected thus far?
Grok 3 AI:
Oct 2024–Mar 2025
[itemized list]
Total (Oct–Sep) 183.7B
Tariffs now rank as the fourth-largest federal revenue source (~5% of total receipts), up from ~2% historically, but they remain a small fraction of the ~$1.9 trillion FY 2025 deficit. Projections suggest full-year FY 2026 collections could exceed $300 billion if current trends hold.
———-
How much taxpayer money did DOGE actually save?
Grok 3 AI:
[long proof of the bottom line]
Bottom Line
DOGE claims $214 billion in savings as of October 2025, but independent verifications suggest the actual, net taxpayer savings are closer to $1–16 billion after accounting for errors, costs, and reversals. While DOGE has exposed real waste (e.g., specific fraud cases and DEI contracts), its aggressive pace has led to chaos, legal pushback, and unintended expenses—highlighting the challenges of rapid federal reform without broader legislative buy-in.
“the challenges of rapid federal reform without broader legislative buy-in” And there is THE problem. Because the vast majority of government at all levels doesn’t share his goals, Trump only has transitory executive orders to accomplish anything significant. For instance, a conservative ratings site gives over 50% of the “Republicans” in the Senate, many of them having been reelected many times, D and F ratings for conservatism with many more Fs than Ds.
Since we live in an easily propagandized, attention deficit, political idiocracy where Trump won by only 1.6% of the popular vote against the clown show duo who were the desired neo-Marxist follow-ons to the Senile Manchurian Puppet combined with the 2014 Princeton University study “Testing Theories of American Politics: Elites, Interest Groups, and Average Citizens” which showed that true voter control is a myth, our situation will only change via a major collapse of some kind at which point, considering our idiocracy, I don’t expect positive political outcomes.
Don’t smear Marx by mentioning him in the same paragraph as one of the oligarchs’ army of professional sock puppets.
+1 otherwise
A1 search says Trump won 49.8% of the popular vote
Well how much was collected in tariffs? you act like its zero
@ MISH
Check this out:
“Your mom.”
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/zelensky-gets-the-fig-amid-trump
Nine generals plus 28 additional general were purged. XACO political army was defeated. Chaos is rising. Next week volatility is guaranteed. XACO is taking China down. Taiwan was spared. The PLA has hollowed brains.
24h before the 4th plenun the PLA purged 9 XACO loyalists and charged them with
serious crimes. King CHACO of the 100Y uniparty is in serious troubles
What in the hell are you talking about?
China five years plan and leadership rotation is next week. Centrifugal forces are breaking China apart. Stalin and Mao purged their military. This time, XACO 28 trusted generals were purged by his political opponents. XACO lost control over his military long time ago. His attempts to regain power over the military failed again and again. XACO controls the media and the propaganda, but not the military. His installed generals will face military courts.
9+28 = 37 XACO top generals were purge last week. His daughter had a serious car accident in Australia but the judge let her go. He is a hollowed king. Next week we will know if he stays and cont to destroy China, or let go.
People of USA including the Republican Party should have become alert when Trunp and Bessent claimed that Tariffs will be paid by the exporters to US.
Assumes an intellectual level that doesn’t exist.
2 cuckservatives disagree!
Trump has made this incantation of democracy and representative republic look silly. I predict by 2032, we will have to start over. Where that leads is anyone’s guess. Those attempting to secede may be allowed to do so, only to be reconquered and federalized. As we all whistle past the graveyard is still remains to be seen how all this plays out. We are just in the early innings of a 9 inning game.
If counties first secede from a state is that an “insurrection” – – or common sense?
Any industrial policy requires careful planning and focus; supporting investment, tax breaks and financial support; ancillary measures such as research, education/ training and legal frameworks; above all, strategy, goals, and measures of success.
Trump’s blanket ‘reciprocal of total import imbalance’ generalized taxes on American consumers and business are about as calibrated as deliberately jumping into a swamp because the roadway has ruts.
Cars with fewer electronic distractions might actually be safer to drive, more difficult to hack into, and cost less.
Well the transhippieenviroantifas didn’t burn down the country. Praise be to fraulein Noem for her expert leadership during this crisis!
The incoherence is so obvious on so many fronts. I would chalk it up to a flashy attention-grabbing style, papering over an underlying lack of principles. There is also an impulsiveness and lack of planning, of thinking things through. Of course it can’t be sensibly aligned to principles over time, because there are so few there. It is a few catchy slogans (obviously drawing many in), with few or counter-productive results. That immigration reform and a few other things are popular, cannot disguise this forever.
The incoherence is a tactic to hide strategy.
On some blogs, the DC-centralized empire is referred to as the Empire of Chaos.
The leviathan continues trashing about no reason or aim the more outrageous the decision the better weirdos to the right pedos to the left grifters in the center and the history dustbin waiting…….
+1 for the petty. But they have their reasons. The chaos is a tactic.
After destroying the income of the lower classes via offshoring and immigration, Oceania oligarchs want to protect their income/wealth/power. To do that, these Oceania oligarchs must destroy Eurasia and Eastasia, again. But they can’t come right out and say it, lest too many serfs figure it out too early in the game to do anything to stop them.
The oligarchs are good at their game though. That’s how they manage to install compliant administrations that everyone is eventually embarrassed about as they vote for the next turd.
“petty” -> poetry
America simply can not survive without Chinese goodwill.
The dems control 90% of the media and the propaganda. Trump controls 90% of the military, Ice and homeland security. 80% of personal decisions. 60% of economic policies and 100% of foreign policies.
Lol! And you are 100% wrong.
50 years ago on 60 minutes Mike Wallace proudly mentioned what he was to the Shah Of Iran and it wasn’t Democrat, nor Republican.
That the Dems represent much failure and need of reform does not make Trump effective. He might knock a few things in a better direction, but at what cost to the functionality of this society? To some degree I am glad he showed up and arrested some slides of liberalism into absurdity. But his undignified overreach, and institutional utter disrespect, is just too glaring. It is based on his bravado and ignorance, mainly.
Trumplings have one bit minds.
It can be this, or it can be that.
It can’t be neither, and it can’t be something else.
This could have been written just as easily:
The Trump administration is changing some of the Tariff structure, to better reflect what’s needed right now, by both sides. Overall there is hope this helps to strengthen the U.S. Economic Policy.
While The President saw this needed to be done, he quietly started doing so, as no need to announce such a move. Trumps Administration has selected some products from all of those we have placed reciprocal tariffs on, and offered to carve out hundreds more goods from farm products to airplane parts when countries strike trade deals with the U.S. Gotta Give to Get, so They are doing so.
The offer to exempt more products from tariffs reflects a growing need to diversify the list, to better reflect what’s desired by our counter party making the deals. This should help speed some things up too. Change can be good.
The move comes ahead of a Supreme Court hearing in early November on the reciprocal tariffs—which should easily go through without issue. The White House, Commerce Department and U.S. Trade Representative’s didn’t need to respond, as nothing has changed, to requests any comment.
Except it was plain to everyone that the tariffs were extremely badly delivered and have ever since been nothing but a troublesome walkback which is far from over. No need to reword it.
Except you seem to fail to understand, and you’re not alone, that as a Country, we should be ALL working together. This constant infighting to hold us back as a Country (The Democrats have “Shut Down” Our Government) is ridiculous and hurts us, which is the opposite of what people who love our Country should be doing. That Is Why there is a need to reword that and any further attempts at hurting America for Political Gain! The Government needs to open, and then sit down and work this shit out, but outside the preview of the MSM, Leaks, And idiots simply making up what they know nothing about, as the negotiations would be ongoing, and as such ever changing, until we can get it right. THEN go to the MSM, and heck, go on a roof top and shout it out. Then it’s positive and a Help For Our Country!!!
lol! Tiny Tim blast from the past! As politician, having something wrong-minded turned down by the courts is a too kind in some cases. They could let the wrongs bury the politician.
Typical taco action. More to come. All bluff and no follow through. What a great leader he is……………….
China 4th Plenun Oct 20/23 will decide XACO fate. XACO supporters threw a stinky rare earth bomb to distract the five years plan and leadership rotation. Trump shocked those idiotic Chinese bureaucrats. They didn’t expect him to imposed 100% tariffs on top of the 50%. XACO had a bad day. XACO didn’t attend N. Korea military parade on Oct 10. He might avoid Trump in S. Korea. Expiration date next week.
What a show!
My favorite tariff is 50% on aluminum imports.
The US produces just 0.67 million metric tons of aluminum in 4 smelters and recycles 3.6 million metric tons annually. The cost to produce in the US is around $2500/ton because of high electricity prices.
We import 4.8 million metric tons. Mostly from Canada (cost $1500), Iceland ($1700) China ($2000). These countries all have much lower electricity costs.
Putting 50% tariffs on aluminum imports just makes all our manufacturers that use aluminum less competitive in the world.
And it won’t spur much new domestic aluminum production. Costs to build new facilities are too high. Electricity is already in short supply, and electricity prices will keep going up, adding to domestic smelting costs.
Ford might switch from aluminum back to steel F-150. The US car mfg might use less chips on the roofs, less lasers and radars. Cost down. Bottlenecks eliminated.
“Might”? Got a source for that?
Ford is planning on using more aluminum and more chips in the F150. Not less.
Buyers are demanding all the bells and whistles.
I neeeeeed to form a deep emotional bond with the LLM in my car.
They should bring back the Taurus as it was 25 years ago.
Run the smelters with windmills and solar panels.
Run them with whatever electricity is relatively inexpensive and available.
A 500,000 ton aluminum smelter needs 1GW of electricity. And we need 10 new smelters to replace all aluminum imports.
Nuclear costs $20 billion for a 1 GW reactor. Problem is it takes 15 years to build one. And the electricity ends up being crazy expensive to justify it.
Natural gas costs $1 billion for 1 GW and normally takes only 2 years to build. Problem is, there is a 2-4 year backlog on natural gas turbines because of high demand worldwide.
Windmills/solar with battery cost $2 billion and also takes 2 years to build. Problem is, Trump is trying to stop them from being built.
The calliope is spinning up, take your seats while there are still seats!
Trump has created a tariff swamp that invites lobbying and corruption from all sides.
He’s already 5 billion richer since he got elected, and that doesn’t even count what his family scored.
All about oligarch profits. They outsourced your jobs. They’re protecting their profits — exclusive access to your retail dollars.
(So long as you have any left. Don’t have any? Sign up as mercenaries. Mercs for merch!)
The up/down ratio says the oligarchs are unstoppable!
Upvoters, with a ratio like that, you have to vote with your feet. Think of it as a citizen/serf version of Gresham’s Law. Leave the cuckservatives behind to circulate in their system.
gosh, such brilliance !!
“reduce tariffs on products not produced domestically”
but of course, negotiations of this sort can be extremely profitable
Cut Spam. Hormel Spam and Hershey kisses are junk food. When receipts rises above outlays gov debt will fall. Cut dems cost centers doing nothing all day. Increase regulations to be reinstated o/n if importers misbehave. Tariffs tsunami on China. Give XACO a heart attack or a stroke. Fire dems DAs. Induce semi comatose on Federal courts, bc all they do is bs. Cut drug traffickers onshore and offshore from: Venezuela, Mexico, Canada and China.
Amazing conservative drugs policy: JUST SAY NO. Zero cost, total effectiveness. Cartels collapse THAT DAY.
Trump’s Chicken Tacos
(makes 4000 servings)
How about a recipe for big fat orange turkey tacos?
Good article on the subject of tariffs:
The $US is the reserve currency and the paradox is the US must have a trade deficit to allow that status. Whoa be the day that changes.
It doesn t if it pegs the money to a basket of fiat currencies like Saudi Arabia
Oh, right. Peg to the Saudi Riyal. Why didn’t I think of that?!
Looks like the MAGA bots are quite active today. The piece simply restates something Trump has never understood: trade deficits = difference between a country’s savings and investment. If Trump would understand that, a lot of his stupidities would go away.