The administration says we are on “Trump time”. Any bets?
90 Deals in 90 Days
White House trade adviser Peter Navarro told Fox Business the Trump administration will “run 90 deals in 90 days.” His proclamation comes after Trump issued blanket tariffs of at least 10 percent on nearly every country — then placed a 90-day pause on most of the tariffs Wednesday.
Navarro added Trump will be “the boss” and “chief negotiator” of these supposed deals: “Nothing is done without him looking very carefully at it.”
Rule out China, the EU, Mexico, and Canada at a minimum. More likely, it’s all of them, discounting agreements to agree.
Anatomy of a Deal
The Wall Street Journal comments on deal difficulties in Anatomy of a Trade Deal
Even a single trade deal can take years, so 90 deals in 90 days is an insanely aggressive goal. Because it isn’t as if these deals are just about settling on tariff numbers. The Trump team has repeatedly noted that it wants wholesale change in the more expansive universe of “trade barriers”—foreign laws, regulations and policies that impede competition. For an idea of the challenge of cementing even one of the deals (much less dozens) consider India, a useful example given that it boasts a wide array of the barriers Trump wants to upend:
India in 2024 exported more than twice the value of goods ($87.4 billion) to the U.S. that it imported from us, leading to a $45.7 billion trade deficit. Trump remains obsessively focused on these imbalances, including India’s, which grew to nearly twice the size it was at the end of Trump’s first term. And while India is the U.S.’s 10th-largest trading partner, the U.S. is India’s top export market—making it highly vulnerable to the Trump tariff regime and eager to talk.
Tariff rates: A recently released USTR report on global trade barriers (broken out by country), notes that India’s average applied tariff rate was 17%—“the highest of any major world economy”—and that its maximum rate on certain agricultural goods (the most allowed under World Trade Organization commitments) can hit 300%. A Reuters analysis of WTO data found that (prior to Trump’s new tariffs) the U.S. applied a trade- weighted average tariff rate on India of about 2.2%, whereas India imposed a weighted average on the U.S. of 12%. That’s a big gap to narrow all on its own. Now add the other “barriers.”
Food fight: India’s average tariff of 38% on agricultural goods grates on U.S. exporters, though for some products the number is significantly higher: apples and corn (50%); flowers (60%); coffee, raisin, walnuts (100%). The U.S. is also frustrated with India’s range of subsidies and supports for its agriculture sector, which include subsidies for inputs like fuel and fertilizer, crop insurance and debt waivers (though the U.S. does plenty of its own ag subsidizing). And then there’s India’s “Minimum Support Price” program for key products—including rice and wheat—which the USTR report labels the worst sort of distortions, as it “bolsters planting decisions, resulting in overproduction, limited demand for imports and artificial export competitiveness.” The Trump team wants sweeping changes to this domestic farm program.
Import restrictions: India bans a range of items from coming into the country (for instance oils of animal origin, or ethanol for fuel use). It requires import licenses for others goods—including livestock products, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, technology products, and refurbished goods—which U.S. exporters complain are difficult to obtain. And it maintains a list of goods that can be imported only by government-controlled monopolies. U.S. negotiators want to an end to much of this.
Service barriers: India significantly restricts foreign equity in, and foreign participation in, many professional services, including banking and insurance, as well payments, telecom, accounting and legal services. One example: While India in 2023 said it would for the first time allow foreign law firms to open offices to practice international law, it has yet to get going on registrations. The administration has a huge list of demands here, as well as complaints about digital trade barriers and copyright and patent law.
Put it in the U.S. context: Trump negotiators would never be able to promise sweeping changes to the U.S. farm subsidy system, since Congress’s farm-state caucus (Republicans and Democrats alike) would refuse to go along.
Trump in this case isn’t likely to have to promise much of anything, even though some of its complaints are exaggerated and though India has its own legitimate gripes about U.S. trade barriers. The severity of the Trump tariff threat, and India’s reliance on the U.S. import market, is likely to make this a particularly one-sided deal. India’s barriers are voluminous enough that it even a modest retreat may be enough to allow Trump to claim a big win and move on. Indeed, don’t be surprised if many of the big “deals” contain relatively minor adjustments to thorny trade barriers.
But that won’t be the scenario in negotiations (if there are any) between the U.S. and its own largest export markets—Canada, Mexico, the EU, China—which have the heft to make demands of their own. In short, best of luck to those negotiators. They are going to need it. And a whole lot of—preferably nontariffed—coffee.
Will There Be a Single Comprehensive Deal?
It seems highly unlikely given Trump’s inane definition of reciprocal.
It’s possible we see some fluff announcements on some minor aspect that don’t amount to much.
Perhaps the penguins on the uninhabited islands of Heard and McDonald Islands are ready to sign.
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Let’s discuss a pair of articles from ZeroHedge and Politico.
The most important point here is that many national governments have approached the present U.S. administration requesting negotiation over the issue of tariffs. This means the Presidents strategy is working, at least in the early stages.
90 deals in 90 days guarantees that the deals will not be well thought out and consider more than a few of the variables involved.
Only a fool would propose this…
Oh wait, its trump…
trumps current negotiation technique is to insult and humiliate the other party
that only works on desperate masochists like marco rubio raphael cruz and lindsey graham
not working with china
Trump could trade Musk for Billy Beane.
Musk has gone AWOL.
Trump will slowly reduce tariffs or extend 90 days to another 90 days. When he makes statements that are impossible to achieve, he is testing reactions from those in the game. Honda just committed to move production from Canada and Mexico to the US. Those who protest the most are the ones who benefit most from trade imbalances.
trump is a lunatic with a mental disorder. anything more than that is just cult BS
OK so the issue is as I see it, Trump must go. Legal removal at this time is probably impossible, what has to happen is the house and senate must go dem in 2026 and then Trump can be removed by impeachment or 25th amendment. Natural death would be another legal way, other ways to remove him might be illegal but surely patriotic. He must not be allowed to continue full term or we will lose the America we know. Yeah I know MAGA you hate America as it is but what will replace it will be much, much worse.
How realistic is anything he says? about any subject or person?
According to 2023 BLS data, there are 18,820 economists in the US. If ONE serious economist out of those 18,820 economists can be named who is willing to defend Trump’s tariffs and is not working for the Trump administration (“where you stand depends on where you sit”), I would be very surprised if that ONE person exists.
Trump is insane. he only wants to be in the headlines for the past 50 years plus of his pathetic life. trying to analyze his motives beyond that, is itself insane. like talking to some nutjob on street corner blabbering on about jesus or some such.
The average rate on a standard, 30-year fixed mortgage was 6.83% in the week ending April 17, up from 6.62% a week ago, mortgage financing provider Freddie Mac said Thursday. That’s the largest one-week jump in mortgage rates in nearly a year.
On Friday, another monthly report on consumer sentiment came in substantially lower than expected. The expectation for inflation jumped from 5% in March to 6.7% in April, the highest level since 1981. All of this comes right in the heart of the all-important spring housing market. For most consumers, a home is their single largest investment. “Forget about housing in this environment, with mortgage rates back up, consumers certainly concerned about the job market, housing will also be on the weak side,”
The objective is to focus every trade partner on balancing trade, focus every manufacturer on relocating manufacturing to USA. “When a man knows he will be hanged in a fortnight it clears his mind wonderfully.” Samuel Johnson
I think 99 percent of economists understand that we have a trade deficit because we don’t like to save. The remaining 1 percent of economists now all sit in the White House. I don’t see anybody who is a serious economist defending Trump’s GTS (Great Tariff Stupidity).
Unilaterally set them at 10% and declare victory while continuing to negotiate new deals that have few restrictions and rates of 2.5% or less.
Trump’s negotiation tactics – Pointing gun on the forehead and demand.
It is called “Robbery”.
The destruction of the economy is a feature not a bug. This is how autocratic regimes govern in order to make the people powerless. The economy is a weapon.
Next week should be the largest global equity percentage crash since 1987. Historically congressional bipartisanship has emerged with fiscal crisis. Maybe, after some ice-water thrown in their faces, both houses of congress will re-exert their big boy pants on the declared national emergency.
“…since 1987…”
Did The Plunge Protection Team get early retirement buyouts?
Doesn’t seem like the Republicans want to stop Trump. They are enabling him further. What reality are you living in ? I predict mass protests and the US government turning on its citizens the way Putin has in Russia whenever there is a protest there. This next 7 year period is going to look like something you’ve never seen in American history. This is what happens when autocrats and dictators take over.
Well the Vietnam protests were pretty exciting. I think this time we will top those. The nation will again be divided. Many I talk too say it’s time for the revenge of the displaced workers. Little sympathy for unemployed bureaucrats and the investment class. This is a class war at hand.
Trump will have his meeting with China next week. They’ll make some tiny concessions that Trump will tout as the bigliest, most beautiful deal ever and the stock market will moonshot. Mark it.
and nobody on planet will believe anything that Trump agrees to. why would anybody but a nit wit.
we can only hope. i love when there is blood on the streets. wall street. not blood in lands that amerikan bombs drop.
Not realistic at all. But he is encouraging partners to sign up now or be left out.
Which “partners”? North Korea and Russia, maybe?
What partners?
The US has no partners now, unfortunately.
Is a trade deal equivalent to a trade treaty and does each deal require Senate confirmation?
Not sure, but Trump will ignore the law in any case.
It’s not realistic at all.
What’s most likely to happen is that Trump will cave, make deals that don’t really change anything (which I think is fine), and then declare victory. The idea of the “external revenue service” will go away quietly, therefore nothing to reduce the deficit (on the backs of American taxpayers), and he will claim victory. Same story different day.
Agree except there will be long term damage to the US. He will try to downplay it but it will be obvious to all.
Quite simply, “realistic Trump” is an oxymoron.
Like “Jumbo Shrimp” or “Military Intelligence.”
Has anyone ever seen “Duck Soup”.? (The Marc Brothers movie)
That’s going to seriously cut into his golf time.
He will negotiate while playing golf. The Saudis like that.
… and he likes it because they let him win and tell him what a great golfer he is.
How do you handle differences in domestic regulation? EU wants beef with no juice and this applies to domestic and foreign imports. US apparently won’t comply so limited exports are its own fault.
As others point out, tariff rates were broadly quite low already. Trump should have been focused on cases where different rules were applied to foreign imports than domestic products.
And that won’t eliminate the deficits because others do not desire our goods because there are cheaper/more suitable domestic (or other imported) products.
I’d rather have a president who strives too hard, who attempts the most, even if he falls short, than a man mentally incapictated and unable to even attempt to lead his nation.
if we fail to strive, we strive to fail.
Hmmm… as far as I know Biden was not on the ballot in 2024.
Just shows you how dumb some people are…..and they all seem to be trumpers.
Stupid, envious, scared, and mean are the defining qualities.
strange how I use no name for mentally incompetent individual, and everyone leaps to Biden…
curious isn’t it?
Trump was elected for that. If we had wanted a do-nothing president then Harris would have been elected.
i’m a libertarian. i’d prefer the whitehouse to be vacant for the next 20 years……..
A do nothing POTUS would have been much better than Trump who is a “do crazy shit” POTUS. He is mentally ill no question about that and must be removed ASAP, but I’m afraid we will have to wait for 2026 elections. If those elections fail to produce a Dem congress and Trump doesn’t die from natural causes our only hope is a true patriot with a drone.
India’s tariffs are kind of an outlier. Most of our trading partners’ tariffs are comparable to ours on them (i.e, in the 2-3% range).
Even if Trump gets the tariffs down from say 2.5% to zero (and those countries will demand that we take down ours too in exchange) – that’s not going to materially increase the amount of goods we export to those countries.
There really is very little logic in what this administration is doing. Get into a trade war and ruin our relationships with our allies just to get our tariffs and theirs from 2.5% to 0%? Doesn’t make any sense.
If you bleed enough red ink you don’t have a choice.
The madness of crowds is an astonishing thing. Push nations away from the dollar. Push them away from US trade. Treat allies insultingly. Push companies away from US financial markets. This bullying works on the Sopranos – until it doesn’t. The extreme miscalculations on Afghanistan and the proxy war with Russia are being ignored. Trump has a 5 vote majority in Congress and elections are about a year and a half away, after which the usual impeachment can be brought back. The public is averse to any wars of attrition. You can easily understand why he’s in such a hurry.
https://x.com/CitizenFreePres/status/1912714660106891276?t=DIDCm7dxYmAaz8fmFvMbWg&s=19
It’s unrealistic but that’s not the biggest problem. Assume Trump signs 89 beautiful bigly deals but the last one, China, refuses to play ball. I can already here Trump say, “anyone doing business with China will face 100% tariffs!” and nullify any amazing beautiful deal he’s signed. You can mix or match the players in any manner you want too.
No one can trust Trump on anything he commits to and the world will figure that out sooner or later. The trust is gone until he leaves office in 1373 days then the healing might begin…
Why would you make a deal with a country that twice elected that nut job? You know they’ll only honor it until they decide not to.
Trump has yet to fully understand that China is supplying EVERYONE EVERYWHERE.
Key sentence in that comment “No one can trust Trump on anything he commits to”. Absolutely true. You say the “world will figure that out sooner or later”. I wonder when Americans will!
While you are playing What If. What if it’s 89+1 vs China?
Lol! That’s not what’s happening. Xi is already on the road signing new agreements and commitments throughout SE Asia ; deals in Vietnam and Malaysia in the last few days. More to come as he hops from country to country over the next few weeks.
Meanwhile Trump sits back and waits for these countries to come crawling to him.
China does more trade with AESEAN than with the US. It also does more trade with the EU than with the US. And it is busy reinforcing that trade. While Trump sits and waits.
China exports 3.58 trillion in goods. Only 12.5% of that comes to the US. They can afford to ignore us while they increase trade with the rest of the world.
China’s got previewed lesson in his first term. China is well prepared this term.
Yes. I am sure they have detailed plans for every likely scenario, and they will take advantage of Trump’s recklessness. Their influence will expand, as will their trade. Just not with the US.
Whenever USAID leaves a country, China is stepping in.
When Trump puts tariffs on other countries, China is waiting in the wings with trade offers.
Not gonna happen.
The BRICKS alone are 10 and will probably gown in number.
When Trump came in to office in January 2017, he promised to scrap NAFTA because he said it was the worst trade deal ever. Seven months later, Trump began the renegotiation of NAFTA in August 2017.
The new deal, USMCA was signed Nov 30, 2018. Fifteen months to negotiate!
What changed? Not much. Trump did get access to 3.6% of Canada’s dairy market. Slightly higher North American content in autos. And he achieved mandatory renegotiation of the agreement; it is scheduled to be renegotiated in 2026.
He said it was the best trade deal ever made.
After being elected again, he said a moron must have negotiated USMCA and he broke the deal. Lol!
How easy will it be to negotiate a new USMCA now, when Mexico and Canada see that Trump won’t keep his word anyway?
Canada is about to elect a new PM. Mark Carney. He is going to be elected because Canadians want him to fight back against Trump.
Even if a new USMCA is negotiated, it won’t change much this time either. Though Trump will again crow that it’s the best deal ever.
And it won’t be done in 90 days.
And I suspect many Canadians will still refuse to buy US goods or travel to the US while Trump is in office.
“‘The new deal, USMCA was signed Nov 30, 2018. Fifteen months to negotiate!”
Don’t worry, they have ChatGPT now and those penguins don’t stand a chance!
Saw a piece on ZH where GS had Boeing sales of about 2% to China?
That’s not terribly encouraging hearing that Trump will be a major part of the negotiations. Trump is a terrible negotiator, regardless of what he may think of himself. He does not put a lot of effort into his strategy and usually what he demands are things that he knows he will easily get. His strategy is simply insults and bludgeoning the other side. On weak people, that method works great, but on smarter and stronger opponents that usually ends up with Trump getting the short end of the stick. It’s all about the show. Of course, all of the yes men around him will tell him he’s brilliant and that’s good enough for him.
In my opinion, if he is not able to turn this ship around by the end of summer, the best thing he could do for the country, but he won’t, is resign. By resigning he would allow others to undo the damage his policies have done.
More realistic than government contracts which are years behind and billions upon billions over cost in business as usual, meaning raising the debt to the stratosphere and still getting very little returns. Unless the recent bout of inflation was considered a return.
In any trade negotiation, it takes at least 90 days (sometimes years) to figure out an agenda. In addition, the present Trump team, as helpfully pointed out by Elon Musk’s apology to bricks, doesn’t have the trade expertise you would need to even get started on an agenda. While Trump’s trade clown show is proceeding, the economic and financial damages to the US economy will keep accumulating.
probably the admin will prepare some boilerplate agreement with blanks that do not get into the details as much as real trade agreements would. Wasn’t there one with China like that where it basically just said it promises to buy more ag products from US?
It’ll be some BS agreement that he’ll say, again are the best deals ever.
Saying it can’t be done in 90 days, this assumes they are normal trade agreements designed to fix problems. We are now in the Reality TV presidency where it resembles stupid people’s vision of what trade deals are.
Do the Constitution and Congress still exist?
Those things? So what? Neither of them put any real brake on warmongering. Notice how Democrats are silent about Iran. Their hope is not to save America but to regain dominance in a political cycle. And they may be right, sadly.
The Democrats’ silence about Iran is especially disappointing considering they were the most vocal of the BLM movement during Trump’s first term, but now they’re content to see our government auction off our Black military personnel to Israel at a price that, adjusted for inflation, is probably much lower than Black labor sold for at auctions in the 1850s.
When your opponent is digging his grave don’t take the shovel out of his hand. No need to help him either just sit back and watch him dig.
Real men hate America and its stupid constitution! I, for one, can’t wait until Trump finally gets anointed President for Life! That’ll own the libs!
It’s all about owning the libs!
Yes, but neither control an army or police force, so they’re irrelevant.
At least now I know the remoteness reference of Heard and McDonald Islands which were included in the tariffs and highlighted by the MSM. I can never unhear/unsee it. But that is how resistance works, identify the jot and tittle and then toss out the entire book as unreadable rubbish. It still may be rubbish but the minutiae thin-entering-wedge approach gets tiring.
If the Cayman Islands are home to more companies than people then with a little financial and legal inventiveness Heard and McDonald can be home to more companies than penguins.
Trump and his team operate as if they are working for Donald Trump’s company, where he is the President and CEO, and there is no Board of Directors to whom he is accountable. Congress must ratify a durable trade agreement in this country, which is true for many other countries worldwide. So, can the Trump administration get real trade agreements with 90 countries in 90 days? That is laughable! They likely could not get one real Congressionally ratified trade agreement by the end of the year.
Trump already has discarded the Constitution, and flouted a unanimous SCOTUS ruling including one third of the justices appointed by him. It’s way beyond Trump Inc, it’s Trump Inc and they own the entire pen company, we’re all dripping in company ink, if you get the reference.
the good news is that every time he violates a court order, it is extra ammunition for democrat’s impeachment trial. I suspect the “system” will keep giving him rope to hang himself with.
The democrats are, for the most part, doddering old cowards fat on insider trades. They have another generation of same poised to take their place when the oldest finally die.
They are not a viable party.
Stop talking about Republicans and Democrats. If you are an American, how about talking about the founding guiding principles of the nation, checks and balances, co-equal branches of government, equal justice under the law, and the President being a temporary steward of the Office of the President, not a unitary head of state?
That country never existed. Give it up.
Are you an American? That country exists in the idea of our nation, and America is a nation founded on the concept of continually working toward a “more perfect union.” That means that we continue to strive, we improve, we expand rights, and we do not allow those who want to take us backwards succeed.
Yes, similar to the UK prime minister – a steward, not a king.
No, they’re not.
We need for the young people to form a new party, that can win.
With a minimum age requirement for federal elected offices I see no reason not to institute a maximum age requirement of 65. Mandatory retirement for all govt workers at 65 will be a good law. Let the next generation get to work and take charge. I’m 74, I retired at 65 and have found many things to do that are productive and hopefully constructive.
I very much doubt that there will be an impeachment vote before January 2027 and then only if the Democrats control the House. Following impeachment by the House, a trial would take place in the Senate, where the Republicans still hold a majority. Even if the Democrats regain control of the Senate in 2027, it would take a 2/3 majority to convict a sitting president.
By 2027 at the current rate of stupidity and destruction we will be lucky to even have a country. However, if we do, even the Republicans will be ready to “ditch the don”.
Have you noticed that US Boards of Directors typically do not have contested elections? Shareholders are simply asked to ratify the candidates selected by the current management. At the government level, only the US Senate (not the House) must ratify trade and other treaties negotiated by the Executive branch.
Yes, you are correct! This does not change my contention that what Trump is trying to get in 90 days is not real trade agreements ratified by the Senate, but instead shakedown agreements made under duress.
That’s so 2024, the old days.