Don’t Miss a Post. Subscribe now.

Trump’s 90 Deals by July 9 Morphs Into a Quasi Labor Day Target

With 9 days remaining, Trump has only one deal, and it’s just a framework.

Only 89 Deals Short With 9 Days Remaining

Bloomberg reports Trump Deals Poised to Fall Short of Sweeping Trade Reforms

With just 9 days to go until President Donald Trump’s country-specific tariffs are set to resume, the White House appears poised to fall short of the sweeping global trade reforms it promised to achieve during the three months they were on hold.

“I would expect the White House will announce some number of frameworks that it’s going to call trade deals, but do not meet anyone’s ordinary understanding of that term,” said Tim Meyer, a professor at Duke University law school who specializes in international trade.

Bessent on Friday said about 20 countries that don’t reach deals by next Wednesday could continue negotiating but would see their tariff rates reverted to the higher April 2 rate or stay at 10% if they are deemed to be “negotiating in good faith,” Bessent said.

But hours later, Trump reiterated his threat to unilaterally set tariff rates for countries — even saying he could do so even before July 9. The US will not broker individual deals with hundreds of nations, Trump said.

“We can do whatever we want,” Trump said during a White House press conference. “I’d like to just send letters out to everybody. ‘Congratulations. You’re paying 25%.’”

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told Bloomberg Television last week that there will be some “top 10 deals” done with major economies by the July date.

“We’re going to do top 10 deals, put them in the right category, and then these other countries will fit behind,” Lutnick said.

For months, Trump and his aides have promised that numerous deals are coming — notably trade adviser Peter Navarro said in April that “90 deals in 90 days” was the target.

Not only is the president likely to fall short of that number, the deals that have been made have included cautionary tales for other negotiating partners.

The UK entered its framework expecting duties on metals imports to fall to zero, only to see the US keep 25% levies on steel and aluminum with a promise to broker a future quota systems. Rare earths shipments that Trump said China agreed to resume quickly in a round of talks in London have yet to fully materialize.

Some partners, including Japan, India and EU, have balked at signing deals without knowing how badly they’ll be hit by separate levies on exports including chips, drugs and commercial aircraft. The US Commerce Department will announce the results of probes into some of those sectors in the coming weeks, which could lead to levies.

Labor Day the New Target

Although Trump Says He Doesn’t Expect to Extend July 9 Tariff Deadline Bessent eyes Labor Day.

On Friday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent cast doubt on the timeline, saying “we have countries approaching us with very good deals” but they all might not be finished by the date when Trump’s April 2 country-based tariffs are set to kick back in.

“If we can ink 10 or 12 of the important 18 — there are another important 20 relationships — then I think we could have trade wrapped up by Labor Day,” Bessent said on Fox Business.

It’s also unclear how comprehensive the trade deals the administration is hoping to secure will be. The pact with the UK that Trump has touted as comprehensive still leaves critical points unresolved, and the recently inked China accord leaves questions unanswered with regard to fentanyl trafficking and US exporters’ access to Chinese markets.

Trump Threatens Japan

After insisting that trade negotiations with Japan were going well, Trump Says ‘Mr Japan’ Unfair on Cars, Floats Keeping 25% Tariff

“I’m going to send letters,” Trump said in the interview, referring to a plan to inform some trading partners that the US will unilaterally set tariffs. “I could send one to Japan. ‘Dear Mr. Japan, here’s the story. You’re going to pay a 25% tariff on your cars.’”

Trump keeps repeating the same lie, that exporters pay tariffs. Is he really that stupid or is he just a bad liar?

Q&A on Deals

Q: Will there be any deals by July 9?
A: Not in any true sense

Q: Will Trump announce any deals?
A: Of course, facts don’t matter.

Q: Is there any reason to believe Trump will honor any deal he makes?
A: Of course not.

Q: What about Labor Day?
A: Do you mean Christmas?

The Key Date is July 31

On July 31, the full appeals court hears Trump’s appeal on reciprocal tariffs but I am unsure when we have a ruling.

I expect Trump will lose by a very lopsided majority.

There is no reason for nations to give Trump anything but lip service until there is a ruling.

The Death of Reciprocal Tariffs

On May 28, the Court of International Trade struck down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs.

Trump’s violations of law were so flagrant that the court went straight to a summary judgment instead of issuing a temporary restraining order (TRO) while hearing further arguments.

However, On June 2, I noted Trump Gets a Meaningless Stay on Tariff Ruling.

Trump got a stay on reciprocal tariff rejections, but he has other options.

Please read the above post for all the reasons Trump will lose the appeal.

Meanwhile, Trump pretends to make deals. And nations pretend to negotiate in good faith.

Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

Subscribers get an email alert of each post as they happen. Read the ones you like and you can unsubscribe at any time.

This post originated on MishTalk.Com

Thanks for Tuning In!

Mish

Comments to this post are now closed.

40 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Pokercat
Pokercat
11 months ago

“There is no reason for nations to give Trump anything but lip service until there is a ruling.”
Lip service may be enough, these tariffs are just a way for Trump to feed his insane ego.

86/47

Six000MileYear
Six000MileYear
11 months ago

A blanket tariff on July 9 tightens the noose to get deals done. Trump’s success in Iran was largely because he backed his mouth with actions instead of chickening out. I think Trump now realizes no more chickening out; just rip the band aid off and ignore the screaming patient.

Last edited 11 months ago by Six000MileYear
Tenacious D
Tenacious D
11 months ago
Reply to  Six000MileYear

What success in Iran?

Jon
Jon
11 months ago

“Trump keeps repeating the same lie, that exporters pay tariffs. Is he really that stupid or is he just a bad liar?”

He can’t be both? That would explain just about everything.

TacoMan
TacoMan
11 months ago
Reply to  Jon

He doesn’t lie all of the time, a lot of the time,he
just doesn’t know what he’s talking about.

Pokercat
Pokercat
11 months ago
Reply to  TacoMan

“He doesn’t lie all of the time, a lot most of the time,he
just doesn’t know what he’s talking about.”

Fixed it for you.
86/47

Tenacious D
Tenacious D
11 months ago
Reply to  TacoMan

He’s a narcissist. They have a low sense of self-awareness. Meaning, they have no idea how ridiculous, immoral, unethical, or otherwise socially unacceptable their behavior is.

Stu
Stu
11 months ago

– “Peter Navarro” said in April that “90 deals in 90 days” was the target.

– “Howard Lutnick” told Bloomberg last week that there will be some “top 10 deals” done with major economies by the July date. > We shall see, but 10 seems to be the Target.

– “Bessent” on Friday said about 20 countries that don’t reach deals by next Wednesday could continue negotiating. > So not an End, but rather a Continuation. Quite a huge difference in those two scenarios. Perhaps some deals reached as well, is the message.

– “Trump” promised that numerous deals are coming. > They are.

Frosty
Frosty
11 months ago

TWM Syndrome Created by Trump.

Tariffs
With
Malice

Interesting that China continues to withhold rare earths! Say goodbye to those sophisticated missile systems that are now depleted.

Trump is playing checkers with our national security while our adversaries are playing chess!

Meanwhile Iran is now free to sell all the oil it wants and China and India benefit along with the rest of the world. Except our oil producers that are seeing their margins get crushed.

Who does Trump work for?

Stu
Stu
11 months ago
Reply to  Frosty

– TWM Syndrome Created by Trump. > Nope, it was created by Democrats for Democrats.

– Interesting that China continues to withhold rare earths! Say goodbye to those sophisticated missile systems that are now depleted. > Hmm… here I thought that they were still negotiating.

>> Wow! We are nearly out of missiles? Holy Crap! We’re doomed you say? OK…

– Trump is playing checkers. > Trump is not playing around.

– Meanwhile Iran is now free to sell all the oil it wants and China and India benefit along with the rest of the world. > It’s called Freedom & Capitalism and China and India as your example, have Both.

– Except our oil producers that are seeing their margins get crushed. They need to look in the Mirror and at the elites in Washington…

– Who does Trump work for? > America and the American Citizens 100%!!!

Pokercat
Pokercat
11 months ago
Reply to  Stu

Stu check into a rehab. Your TDS II has got to be debilitating.

86/47

TexasTim65
TexasTim65
11 months ago
Reply to  Frosty

To be fair Trump said he wanted to crash the price of oil.

That’s the only outcome of ‘drill baby drill’ along with a mandate for low gas prices.

Frosty
Frosty
11 months ago
Reply to  TexasTim65

Rig counts are down 8 weeks in a row. Trump is full of shit!

Tony Frank
Tony Frank
11 months ago

TACO will capitulate once again on the July 9th deadline. After drawing significant criticism regarding his indecisive tariff policy, he ‘claims’ the waffling is part of his “strategy.”

Michael Engel
Michael Engel
11 months ago

CL down to $68. Inflation bs. Beijing ordered Iran not to close the strait of Hormuz.
Xi, Iran best friend: China is ready to reconstruct peace in the ME. China is 90% of
Iranian oil. Iran supplies only 10% of Chinese oil import.
China is Russia biggest customer. Putin sells oil to finance a war. China trades with the US and the EU. Money moves the world around.
The pair: Trump/Bibi dismantle the greedy evil axis in twelve days: China, Russia, N.K and Iran.

Avery2
Avery2
11 months ago
Reply to  Michael Engel

To borrow a phrase from Cassius Clay, “…no Chinese, Russian, NK or Iranian ever called me a …”

Let those in the DC Beltway Of Evil do their own worrying. Sow the wind, reap the whirlwind.

Last edited 11 months ago by Avery2
Doug78
Doug78
11 months ago
Reply to  Michael Engel

Market back up higher than Liberation Day. Tariffs before that day were 2.5% on average. They are now 12.5% with peaks of 20% on most Chinese goods. That doesn’t look like a step back to me but I am sure some here will say that it is. Don’t listen to what Trump says. Look at what he does. In the meantime the economy hasn’t crashed as predicted here and other blogs and those who maintain it will keep pushing it off later and later. Perhaps the tariffs caused margin compression of the companies who are exporting to the US because they want to keep their market share. If so, and it probably is, then inflation will be lower than expected and feared. If you talk to companies exporting to the US losing market share is more important than passing on costs. In the meantime tariffs have brought in some nice revenue. Let the down votes come.

Frosty
Frosty
11 months ago
Reply to  Doug78

Soooooo Funny!

Exports are down 5.9% and imports up since Trumps masturbation day!

Winning Bigly?

Casual Observer
Casual Observer
11 months ago

Trump has george constanza level negotiation skills.

Creamer
Creamer
11 months ago

If we’re comparing him to Jason Alexander roles I’d say Duckman is an even more apt comparison. Seriously, go watch an episode and tell me that’s not him lol

Doug78
Doug78
11 months ago

Constanza negotiated himself into a sweet deal with the New York Yankees.

Last edited 11 months ago by Doug78
Doug78
Doug78
11 months ago
Reply to  Doug78

He also negotiated with Fidel Castro to let a star Cuban baseball player baseball play for the Yankees. That is a good negotiator.

Last edited 11 months ago by Doug78
Patrick
Patrick
11 months ago

Its a bit of a stretch to keep harping on Trump’s literality, no? You understand what hyperbole is.

Regarding the courts, as I’ve said before: The Supreme Court is the singular constitutional judicial authority. The lower courts were created by Congress, w/ SCOTUS oversight, essentially a veto power. Judge shopping and lack of standing for nationwide injunctions have just been swatted down. The “imperial judiciary” which you seem to have no problem at all with, is just as dangerous and unconstitutional as a run away executive. And it has been reined in by SCOTUS. A circuit court’s decision has to address the plaintiffs grievances within their circuit. The executive is not limited to regions of influence or individual cases.

Lefteris
Lefteris
11 months ago
Reply to  Mike Shedlock

Please also include the scenario “what will happen when conservative judges start going against a democrat president”.
Because if the result would be different than the current, then it’s a two-tier system, in which case it won’t be worth talking about politics anymore.

Pokercat
Pokercat
11 months ago
Reply to  Patrick

“You understand what hyperbole is”
Apparently you don’t understand what mental illness is.

86/47

Avery2
Avery2
11 months ago

Q. Who does one trade it?

A. So let’s have another cup of coffee and let’s have another piece of pie.

Last edited 11 months ago by Avery2
David Heartland
David Heartland
11 months ago

“I’d like to just send letters out to everybody. ‘Congratulations. You’re paying 25%.’”

He then should cc: American Consumers and advise us that Inflation is under control!

Michael Engel
Michael Engel
11 months ago

It’s 46C in Portugal. Barcelona beaches are clogged. Turkey is burning. In Punjab and Rajasthan: 51C. 500,000 people die each year from heat exposure.

Last edited 11 months ago by Michael Engel
Joe
Joe
11 months ago
Reply to  Michael Engel

4.6 million die from cold exposure each year

Albert
Albert
11 months ago

If Trump‘s BBB passes, the US will need a larger trade deficit to make up for a bigger shortfall of US savings relative to US investments. This is no big economic insight; it simply follows from accounting identities. Nevertheless, the White House seems to be completely oblivious to such insights. The US may well need an IMF program to get reacquainted with simple economic truths.

I’m back robbyrob
I’m back robbyrob
11 months ago
Reply to  Albert
TacoMan
TacoMan
11 months ago
Reply to  Albert

Trump and the tech bros are moving their assets into crypto, because they know they are crashing the dollar.

What’s happening is deliberate.

Jon
Jon
11 months ago
Reply to  TacoMan

Bessent said they wanted to crash the dollar in order to make manufacturing more profitable in the US.

TacoMan
TacoMan
11 months ago
Reply to  Jon

For them.

Mark
Mark
11 months ago

There’s grumpy ways of looking at this and there’s Reality. I’m going with reality. This mornings headline “ Futures Push Higher Into Record Territory Amid Trade Talk Progress”

TacoMan
TacoMan
11 months ago
Reply to  Mark

It’s appropriate to be grumpy when a bellicose, narcissistic moron is ‘negotiating’ things that directly affect your well being.

Tenacious D
Tenacious D
11 months ago
Reply to  Mark

So why don’t you go all in then? Ride it to the moon. Asses never travel in masses.

I’m back robbyrob
I’m back robbyrob
11 months ago

thank you! I had not forgotten about the 3 month delay to enact the tariffs!
Meanwhile:
Experts detail how the Trump administration has seriously weakened the public-private partnerships that protect US critical infrastructure from cyberattacks  

https://www.cybersecuritydive.com/news/critical-infrastructure-cybersecurity-partnerships-disruption-trump-government-industry/751589/

Decorate Your Walls with Mish Fine Art Images

Click each image to view details or purchase in the store.

Stay Informed

Subscribe to MishTalk

You will receive all messages from this feed and they will be delivered by email.