Before going into my rationale, please note that I voted for Trump against Hillary in 2016 and would do so again.
This call is based on my analysis of the setup, not political wishes.
I cannot recall the last time I voted for a Democrat for president, but I did not vote for Bush in either 2000 or 2004. I voted Libertarian.
This Is Not 2016
It’s important to note that this is not 2016. Trump was never well liked, but Hillary was despised.
Yet, despite the fact that Hillary was despised, Trump barely won. People pat themselves on the back for predicting a Trump win. In reality, they were lucky.
No one could have foreseen that Comey would come out of the blue at the last moment with a blast at Hillary. I believe that tipped the election.
It also took a completely foolish campaign by Hillary, ignoring key states like Wisconsin and Michigan.
Democrats will not make the same mistakes in 2020.
Caveat
My one caveat in my prediction is that neither Elizabeth Warren nor Bernie Sanders nor Amy Klobuchar wins the Democratic nomination.
Klobuchar is polling at 3-5% so she is an enormous longshot.
Given that Warren is slipping in the polls, and rightfully so, I do not expect any of those to happen.
Warren is a radical left Marxist.
To understand Warren, please consider Elizabeth Warren Has a Bad Plan for Everything.
Warren is just the kind of lightning rod that Trump could defeat.
I commented How to Re-Elect Trump in One Easy Lesson, nominate Warren.
Trump vs Biden, Sanders, Warren
Please consider Trump Trails Biden but Leads Warren in Battlegrounds.
Those polls are very stale (November), but they accurately reflect my thoughts.
Go to 270 to Win, and flip just three states, say Wisconsin (I believe a given), Pennsylvania, and Michigan.
2016 With PA, WI, MI Flipped
Plausible Scenario
That is a very plausible scenario and in fact close to my baseline. The Democrats could easily flip Arizona and North Carolina as well.
No Repudiation?
Anis Shivani at Counterpunch.org comments Donald Trump Will Easily Be Reelected: There’s Been No Repudiation Of What He Represents and There Won’t Be.
Now vs Then
I strongly disagree.
What got Trump elected is not what will get him re-elected.
In the UK, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn made the same foolish mistake. Corbyn was never elected but Theresa May lost her majority to Labout in 2017.
Corbyn attributed that to leftist policy as opposed to a piss poor campaign by May. He thus went with an even more radical Left campaign as noted in Jeremy Corbyn Goes for Broke With Last Desperate Act, US Democrats Take Note.
If the Democrats go nuts as noted in my caveat above, yep, I have to reconsider.
Trump Arrogance
Trump is acting in many ways, just like Corbyn. And his supporters are cheering him on.
Face the facts: Trump is an arrogant bully, one of the biggest narcissist political leaders the world has ever seen, and a complete jackass to alleged allies.
Independents could possibly overlook that vs Warren, but not against Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, or Pete Buttigieg.
Strongest Economy Ever?
I vehemently disagree with Barry Ritholtz on economic policy, unions, etc.
But here a Ritholtz post that caught my eye, simply based on facts: Economic Errors Right Wing Edition
Simply put, this isn’t the strongest economy ever. And wage growth in particular has been abysmal.
Steel Futures
Trump’s trade policy has been a disaster to both farmers and the steel industry.
Farming woes are well understood, but steel is another matter.
Reality
Trump is polling about 43% according to up-to-date Approval Ratings despite a record high stock market, plentiful jobs, and allegedly the best economy in decades.
**How unpopular is Donald Trump?**
Wow. Let that sink in. Trump ought to be polling 60% or higher with that economic report.
What happens if the stock market drop? Heck what happens even if it doesn’t?
Once again this reminds me of the UK election.
On November 18, with the election on December 12, I made this observation in Fear of Corbyn Outweighs Fear of Brexit:
“This election is no longer primarily about Brexit, it’s primarily about Corbyn.”
Right Slogan, Wrong Year
Similarly, and unless the Democrats are willing to nominate another lightning rod, this election, unlike the last, will be about “anyone but Trump“.
Appealing to the Base
Trump is making the same mistake that Corbyn did: Appeal to the radicals.
Trump is no longer bothering to appeal to the base, he has gone one further to appeal to radicals.
I have news for everyone who has not thought about this.
Base and Radicals Aren’t Going Anywhere
The base and the radical right wingers are going anywhere. The core conservatives and the radical conservatives will never vote Democratic.
It is not the core that Trump needs to win over, rather it is the independents.
The independents, me included, did vote for Trump in 2016.
On average, I believe the swing voters and independents that carried the day for Trump have finally had enough for all the reasons stated above.
It will no longer take a recession to beat Trump, all Democrats have to do is stay away from the likes of Warren.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Hmmm? Trump will “be easily be defeated…” and you have a bunch of data to support your conclusion.
Where have I heard this all before?
Oh…wait a minute…I remember now these types of predictions and the search of data to support or rather, prop up the same went on for more than a year from 2015 through election day in 2016. The day before the 2016 election there were people saying the same thing. The Clinton campaign, so confident in victory based on all the prognosticators like you, ordered numerous cases of champaign to celebrate her inevitable victory.
News flash: A socialist, who still refuses to call himself a Democrat (He refers to himself as a Democratic Socialist) is on track to win the Democratic Party’s nomination. After Super Tuesday, where he is positioned to win big, 40% of all the delegates will be awarded. Although Bernie will still not, by then, have enough delegates to take the nomination outright, he will have a insurmountable lead where no other candidate will be able to overcome.
As James Carville, Rahm Emanuel, Chris Matthews, and other leading democratic strategist have opined, Trump will landslide Bernie. Bernie will also cost the Democrats on the down ballot, the US House, Governorships and state houses. Most important of all, Republicans will have unfettered control over the 2020 redistricting. Can you say “ gerrymandering” neighbor?
The great James “It’s the economy stupid” Carville said that, people who think Bernie Sanders will beat Trump are either stupid, in denial or both.
Here is the extent of the corner the Democratic National Committee has painted itself into a corner:
If they sit back and allow Bernie to win the nomination, they will lose in a landslide because many Centrists will either not vote or, as some may even do, vote for Trump. They will lose nearly all of the independents.
If they refuse to sit back and go forth to find a way to steal the nomination from Bernie, like they did in 2016, they will also lose in a landslide as massive numbers of Leftist will either not vote or, as some may even do, will vote for a third party like the Greens. Remember Jill Stein? No way in hell will the leftists come back into the fold and support
the centrist alternative to Bernie after the nomination was stolen yet again – this time when he was on a clear and irrefutable path to victory.
Bernie will also cost the Democrats on the down ballot, the US House, Governorships and state houses. Most important of all, Republicans will have unfettered control over the 2020 redistricting. Can you say “ gerrymandering” neighbor?
In short, Democrats are damned if they do and damned if they don’t.
The party will become fractured either way – more so if the Democratic elites steal the nomination from Bernie.
The real question to ask is, how did we get here? It’s no mystery. It’s all happened before within the Democratic party. Most people today don’t remember Henry A. Wallace. He was a far left Democratic Vice-President for FDR. That is until FDR refused to keep him on the ticket when he ran for reelection. He called himself a “progressive” but his followers were socialists and even some Communists. Unable to advance further within the Democratic Party, due to his radicalism, he ran for President as a third party candidate under the ad hoc “Progressive Party.”
Although Wallace faded from the public eye, his rabid followers set out on a mission to take control over the Democratic Party. They eventually succeeded after coming ever so close in the infamous 1968 DNC Convention in Chicago where a riot took place outside the convention and inside, the competing camps of Democratic delegates where at each other’s throats and there were even physical altercations between the delegates. The Democratic party became fractured and Southern Democratic states began to turn red. This caused the election to fall right into the lap of Richard Nixon.
In 1972 the Leftists finally wrested control of the party away from the Truman, JFK, LBJ wing of the Democratic party. This gave us George McGovern. McGovern was a Socialist (although he wisely denied being such at the time) who talked about single payer healthcare for all and establishing a “minimum income for all people.” He also advance free higher education and other socialist policies.
When McGovern was nominated, Democrats controlled the Senate, The House, as well as most Governor’s mansions and state houses. In national party identification, Democrats enjoyed a 18% advantage over Republicans.
Yet, Richard Nixon, who only won in 1968 because of a fractured Democratic Party, blasted McGovern in 1972 winning 49 of 50 states. The greatest landslide in US history.
So, the questions to ask today are:
Will Bernie be able to carry his home state of Vermont?
Will rank and file Democrats be able to retake their once great party from the radical socialist left?
Well, looking in from outside I can only say this ………… are the American public really going to vote AGAIN for a man who has made the American Presidency and the entire country a laughing stock worldwide?
I know many of you don’t get out much, unless it’s to kill people with beards in foreign places. For many others the only foreign trip they have made is to the Magic Kingdom at Disney Land. But c’mon! Surely you’re better off with a pres. who has the early stages of dementia (Biden) than someone who’s already full blown bat shyte crazy. Reagan got a bit foggy over time but at least it wasn’t the dangerous sort like Trump.
Strongly disagree.
2016 featured the two worst candidates for President in my lifetime. As a Ron Paul Libertarian, I hadn’t voted for 20+ years. Both parties corrupt. But Hillary must not be POTUS. The only decision was Trump or 3rd Party? Never Hillary. I finally held my nose and voted Trump as the only way to keep Hillary out of the White House.
Trump’s major obstacle was GOP opposition. He won DESPITE the GOP, not because of it. Many GOP leaders and talk show hosts in Utah actively campaigned AGAINST Trump and said they would vote for HRC. Trump offended their religious sensibilities (and Hillary didn’t???). Third-Party CIA Spook Evan McMullin pulled 20+% of the vote.
At the time I worked for a software startup full of 20 and 30 something young conservatives. Dozens of them did not vote at all. Too busy. And neither candidate appealed.
Now is much different. Trump is battling the DC Swamp. He has outed the MSM as cheerleaders for Liberal Lunacy and Lies. He has exposed the Democrats as clueless, corrupt and anti-American “No Border” traitors.
The GOP is solidly behind Trump now. Conservatives are solidly behind Trump now. They see the stark contrast. You quote polls? I laugh in your face. The polls are propaganda tools.
It is not about the man or his personal lack of diplomacy and tact. He is a fighter. And he fights to put America first. Not Mexico. Not Ukraine. Not China. 2020 will be a Trump Landslide.
Texas will be a tossup state in 2020. It has the most new Latino voters who will vote Democrat. There will be 10M new latino voters in 2020 in just the southwest. Texas tried to invalidate the voter rolls but was rejected by a federal court. The Republican party is in big trouble. Kentucky has a Democratic governor. The blue wave is actually turning into a tsunami.
Even Warren and Bernie have a chance if there is an economic slowdown. They will simply be able to point to Trump and say he screwed up the economy.
Wow, I travel to FL for few days and you drop a bomb on your audience. Been following you for about 12 or 13 years. Haven’t always agreed with you but appreciate that you are fairly even handed even when you’re wrong. That said, you must have posted this just to flush out the most raving conspiratorial cultists of your readers. I tend to agree with your assessment but perhaps only out of hope that many people who voted for him may have come to their senses. ( I voted for the third party people in 2016, 2012, 2008) I do know this, he may very well win but if he does it no way will it be the same way that 2016 went – he lives or dies with his base.
Hi Mish,
You have provided red meat to the rabbit Trump haters so your analysis will surely be the center of attention during the next news cycle. At some level, your analysis is spot on. Same can be said of what was being offered as indisputable evidence supporting a Hillary landslide in 2016. However, what was missing then, and in your analysis, is the deep seated disgust for the elites and radical left’s addenda to destroy America’s moral compass. This is vital to accomplishing their objective because America’s Constitution defines certain American rights as inalienable, bestowed by God, and not our Government. I truly believe that there remains enough “deplorables,” to insure that we can put and end to their tyrannical agenda and preserve these rights for future generations of Americans…thereby once again providing a guiding light for those in other countries that are less fortunate.
Thank you for providing this forum.
Wild Cards are the criminal investigations of the Obama administration, DNC vs Trump campaign and the Ukraine kick back to Biden and other Democrats. These will be dealt out closer to the election
Over time a number of articles have surfaced on the subject of Trumps “flip flops.” Needless to say, this does not bode well for those seeking stability. Let me be clear, we are not talking about minor issues but some of the key issues of the day. The article below explores how this may cause Trump a great deal of grief.
My pardon if it’s been mentioned, but in 2016 many handed the keys to the White House to an untested citizen, who had no public office experience. Now, 2020 comes into play with “the devil I know”.
Tulsi is the only other candidate that might continue to drain the swamp, and reduce our overseas military footprint/exposure. She has my attention. Lots of water will pass under the bridge before I cast my vote.
Sadly, Tulsi is being solidly blocked in the same way Ron Paul always was.
Mish, when it comes to politics, stick to economics, please. Here’s your article in 2016 that says “is it possible Trump is throwing the election,” LOL.
“The base and the radical right wingers are going anywhere. The core conservatives and the radical conservatives will never vote Democratic.”
Mish I agree with almost everything in this post today, except for that which I quoted above. You must remember that it is right leaning voters that are more likely to register as independents and thos are the voters that got Trump into office with the slimmest of margins, there are not enough registered republicans to elect a president, they HAVE to get a substantial part of the independent voters.
The base…. By that I am guessing you mean the Trump base because the GOP base of yesteryear is not very happy with Trump, and while few will opt to vote against Trump many will for once just not vote at all. The old GOP has been taken over by a cult of personality which many true conservatives find an utter embarrassment. Radical right wingers – well they are a lost cause anyway, they are not going to vote for Trump but against whatever tinfoil hat notions they are nursing this election cycle.
On the other hand, you have democrats extremely motivated in 2020 and both house and senate races which were in the GOP’s favor in 2016 with more vulnerable seats of democrats, this time it is the other way around. This time it is GOP seats that are more vulnerable. It will only take 3 senate seats to switch from GOP for the senate to be 50/50, four for the democrats to control both houses. 11 GOP seats are safe, 7 likely, and 2 leaning. Out of 35 up for grabs. On the other side you have 6/4/1. But the point is 21 of the 35 seats up for this election round are GOP. And there are some notably weak candidates like McSally and Collins. I would not give Collins even a 50/50 at this point. Her vote vor confirmation of Kavanaugh absolute fired up voters in Maine, and more than $4 million in a campaign war chest awaits the democrat that was crowd funded in the weeks after the confirmation hearings.
Senate races were at least a factor in the 2016 race when it was more democrat seats than republican and the opposite is going to be true in 2020.
All the democrats need for a landslide is for republicans to just sit it out in disgust and there are a lot of people in key swing states now that may never vote democrat but this time will just stay home because they cannot vote Trump again.
I rather hope Trump gets a second term and the Republicans gain control of the House. And if this happens I hope Trump will unleash the wrath of God on the ‘deep State’ who have hounded him for the last four years. It is time the stables were mucked out and the rampant corruption exposed. There needs to be a parade of criminal trials.
Biden would be a godsend for Trump. All he has to do is play over and over that video of Biden boasting about bribing the Ukrainian president to fire the prosecutor investigating his crackhead son’s company.
The choice would be between a horrible narcissistic bully and a corrupt senile old man. Pretty easy choice for voters.
He’s safe unless the dems can find another Obamo. I don’t see any of the current goobers beating him.
Some will stay home, like they did last time. And yes, some DID vote for Trump. 10% of counties won by Trump voted for Obama in 2008 AND 2012. And the Blue Collars are doing even better now than 2016 as far as jobs go. Who do you think they’re going to vote for? Tell me the dem candidate that isnt going full job-killing Climate Change jihad that blue collar workers can vote for?
Biden, Amy, Pete, Yang and Bloomberg will not go full jihad on jobs. They will end dirty fuel subsidies, but will seek to have a strong economy under the current system. Bernie and Warren are committed to a platform that says the system is broken and they need to “fix” it. Right now, Bernie has the most solid, unshakable support. Good chance he has the most delegates for the first ballot in Milwaukee.
It’s early, but I believe an idiot could lose to The Donald. Biden could do it. He can’t go a day without saying something stupid and he has to make it to November.
I agree that the middle always decides national elections and the menagerie of leftists now running all scare the hell out of anyone with a balanced world view and old enough to vote.
Also, there’s the issue of incumbency to consider. It’s extremely difficult to dislodge an incumbent president, even a donkey like Donald. The last time it happened was Slick Willie’s defeat of Bush Senior, running on “It’s the economy, stupid.” Ironically, Clinton took office during the second quarter of the Bush recovery. Yes, his campaign was that bad and unleashed the Clintons from Little Rock on the innocent world.
“The young Bernie/Warren/Yang voters are not going to vote for Billionaire Mike or Establishment Biden;”
Then who the Hell will they vote for?
OK Let’s presume No one.
But what about all the swing voters who voted Trump and now can’t stand him?
Will they vote for Trump?
Sheeesh this is so simple
I guess our views on the issue of swing voters who voted for Trump depends upon our respective associations. I’m a swing voter that is more liberal than you seem to be Mike. Unless there is a sea change of events to persuade me otherwise, the Donald (who’s personality and rhetoric I dislike) is going to undoubtedly get my vote again. The Democrats have truly lost their way IMO, and the swing voters in my circle are saying the same. The sea change that could destroy Trump’s chances is a modest 30% stock market correction. He is foolishly taking credit for asset inflation, so he’d go down with that ship.
Personally, I think it more important to figure out what one’s going to do as US policy changes — I may move from the city to a small community.
The young Bernie/Warren/Yang voters are not going to vote for Billionaore Mike or Establishment Biden; The moderate dems–the upper middle class and higher suburban soccer moms wont vote for the above Leftists b/c they will get pillaged in taxes and the corporate MSM will diligently educate them b/c the wealthy ppl who own DC are not going to sit by and watch the Left raid their wealth.
Unless the dems pull off a magic fusion ticket that satisfies both factions then expect the younger dems to go start their own party. They’re not going to stick around if they dont get what they want this time around.
This is nonsense. A lot can happen in 11 months and any predictions made now are a pure guess.
Why does Mish’s prediction remind me of George Costanza?
Mish:
The great bulk of your argument seems to revolve around what the polls are saying now. Unless you think the polls now have a sudden accuracy and predictive ability they didn’t have in 2016, I can’t buy your argument. And if you do think the polls are more accurate now, what evidence do you have for that?
Couple of points.
Way TOO EARLY TO BET.
Your point about the black vote definitely has merit. The economic recovery, for all its flaws, has been especially strong for blacks, who are currently seeing one of the lowest unemployment rates ever. Also, they were disproportionately affected by the bursting of the housing bubble and the housing ownership situation seems to have stabilized as well. I have also noticed a surprising number of black youtubers expressing support for Trump. This is just minor anecdotal evidence and may not mean much, but still, I find it noteworthy,
“Democrats will not make the same mistakes in 2020.”
Exactly right. They will make other, equally fatal, mistakes. Just like the generals fighting the last war. Usually, the Republicans are the party to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. But recently, the Democrats have been in the “here, hold my beer” competition mode.
“You spent a long winded article arguing a concept when all it comes down to is there is no one who can beat Trump. That is TDS.”
Ironically, exactly correct.
Harbour accuses me of TDS when he is the one who has it.
This is TDS at its finest “there is no one who can beat Trump”
Yep, pure TDS
Who can beat Trump that is currently running???
Mish, when it comes to politics, you suck.
If a person doesn’t have TDS they are not paying attention.
You are clueless and a coward for never answering basic questions, like:
What current democratic candidate would improve the US economy / illegal immigration / healthcare costs, reduce foreign wars, and will not pursue economy-killing and fraudulent gloBull warming policies (when we are actually heading into a devastating cooling cycle)?
Do you think the establishment media’s propaganda campaign against Trump has influenced polls?
How did Independents vote after the Clinton Impeachment, which actually involved breaking laws?
Brexit has been an anti-establishment movement, like all of the others around the world. Anti-establishment movements
will continue to grow because govt’s will get ever more aggressive in going after other people’s money and freedoms. Corbin and the Dems running for President are examples of how aggressive and desperate the establishment has become, which only brings their lunacy into the light.
The election will only be close if another Dem comes out of the woodwork. Regardless of who wins, the result will not be accepted by the other side, which means the civil unrest trend continues to ramp into civil war. This will be foreshadowed by the violence around the election.
Gutsy call this early. Your analysis is shaded by your distaste for Trump, if you can’t keep name calling out of your case, it is weak. Trump is no more an arrogant bully today than he was in 2016. I think you are very wrong, looking forward to you gobbling crow.
No one can predict the stupidity of voters. The amount negative press against Trump can’t be won. It’s election meddling by the US media and digital media. The democratic party turned itself into the anti American party as for if congress follows suit on mass chaos is yet to be seen but from what we are hearing they want to steal an election. Warrens “Marshall plan for wealthy nations” is insanity.
Don’t jump the gun Mish – the Democratic nominee hasn’t been prepared for reception by the other side yet – once the election gets underway, there will lots of reasons to hate them and vote for Trump. The Republicans know that Trump won’t be voted “for” by a majority, so they need to get people to vote “against” his opponent. Revisit this column in August 2020 and see what changes.
At this point, I despise all of the offered options on either side almost equally. Trump, true to history, is not acting at all as he promised in the campaign. The prospect of any of the Dem offerings is sickening, but who knows what they would really do if elected. Maybe something more like what Trump promised. Makes one want to move to Chile.
Are you the guy who spends every winter in Chile?
Re: calling the race now…it’s way too early to call anything yet. We don’t even know who the Dem nominee is or if there will be legit 3rd party contender.
Re: voting for Trump alternative…me thinks the Trump bashers (like Mish) will hold their nose and vote for Trump in 2020 due to no good alternatives, in a time of RELATIVE peace and prosperity.
seems like you are assuming all the blue states from 2016 will remain blue——so many blacks and independents have left the democrats that may not be the case–then what?——perhaps another hole in a supposed “blue wall”
Thanks for a thoughtful argument with the facts to support it. I agree it will be close if the right person can face off against Trump. A Democrat ticket with Hillary, Warren, Sanders, Biden, or Butt Grease should logically not win unless the markets crash–they are all flawed. However, the right combo will appeal.
Hello Mish, whether Trump wins or loses depends on neither polls nor personalities. Hillat was despised but it was Obama’s economic policies that secured her defeat. The personal economic well-being of the swing-state voters you identified matters more than the persons in the running.
Professors Helmut Norpoth and Allan Lichtman are independent researchers with independent election forecasting questionnaires. And yet, both of them are singularly successful in predicting presidential election outcomes. Their questionnaires focus exclusively on personal economics. Nothing else. Based on this information, they independently determine whether the election favors the incumbent or the challenger. In May 2016, they both said Trump would win, even before he secured the nomination. They were alone in their prediction. They were right.
And at least Professor Allan Lichtman is saying that Trump will win again. His questionnaire shows is. “Barring some unforeseen development, Trump will win 2020,” he lamented, for he is a proud and vocal Democrat. He has given many warnings to his party to take his findings seriously. Professor Norpoth has not given an early opinion, as far as I know. But since he and Lichtman have been flawless since they started predicting in 1984, they deserve to be taken seriously.
Mish,
Interesting analysis. I think you’re right. This will be a referendum on Trump vs 2016 which was much more of a referendum on Clinton.
The wildcard is: will the Dems be “unifiable” enough coming out of what could easily be a disaster of a convention to actually make this an “anybody but Trump” election?
All sane Reps want the Supreme Court picked by Trump.
The “Ginsburg” Wildcard
If Ginsburg were to announce she’s leaving ahead of the election (which would be clear election interference), lookout…
With or without an announcement, I think most people believe that the chance she leaves the court in the next term are high.
I don’t see how the human gaffe generator, all seven dwarves, can win against Trump. With his Hunter problems. Creepy, Gropey, Grifty, Gaffey, Grabby, Mumbles, and Schlock.
Also see StyxHexen above.
This is nearly identical to the setup when Gingrich ran on “Clinton man bad!” but not on any policies. And in an off year election the GOP lost seats in a landslide.
Unless something really, really, bad happens to the Economy, Trump will win in a landslide, and take the house with him with very long coat-tails.
The Democrats have to have someone who can fight, and actually fight the right battles. Ted Cruz tried “Orange Man really bad” and lost. The only threat in the field was Montana’s governor – a deep Red State democrat. He got 0%. Tulsi and Yang are the only adults on the stage and I can disagree but they aren’t crazy-stupid-evil, the rest are too “green”. Medicare for all? Banning coal and fossil fuel vehicles? And intersectional identity? Maybe if Biden transitions and runs as the first Trans-Woman president and promises everyone can use the restroom they identify as.
Another thing that might happen is RBG departs just in time to make it a referrendum on whether the next 30 years will be under the constitution, or venezuelan oligicarchic kritarchy.
I see nothing in your discussion that argues the actual nominee can beat Trump in a campaign. Right now, it is the real ugly orange man v.s. a theoretical flawless democrat. But all the democrats are fatally flawed, even now (have you seen the latest Biden gaffes – just the last two weeks means he will lose Bigly). There is not a large enough #NeverTrump vote. There is a fairly stable #4More vote. You don’t have to convince yourself, you have to convince the moderate middle, e.g. the Matt Taibbis and Tim Pools of the world, and the latter has daily coverage he doesn’t want to do explaining why the Democrats are a dumpster fire running down a steep hill that will crash and still burn.
Trump would be easy to beat. Only not by anything the Democrats would permit to fight, either candidates or policies.
Quod Erat Demonstratum.
They will learn to code just long enough to train their replacements: H1-Bs from India like Disney, Harley, and AT&T.
Biden v. Trump will be Bambi v. Godzilla. Less energy than Jeb! (please clap), less sense and more Crooked than Hillary, Creepier than Al Franken. With a family worse than the Kennedys.
If Biden had any more negatives, he’s be causing static discharges more than Nikol Tesla could imagine.
Even though it is way too early, it is fun to speculate!! Here’s my analysis.
There is significant risk that the Ds will nominate a fatally flawed candidate. As of now, I think Sanders is the favorite for that role. He has the most ardent group of supporters. He is likely to win both Iowa and NH. And the field around him is very weak. Good chance that he goes to the convention with the most delegates, but not a majority. After 2016, the DNC and their MSM friends are going to have a hard time stealing the nomination from him if he has the most delegates going into Milwaukee The problem with Sanders is he will not change his platform or his style for love or money. He has been consistent for decades. No turning back or tacking to the center. In this case, Bernie’s integrity will be a curse more than a blessing.
On the other hand, there is also a significant risk that Trump head into the general election with further war wounds (including self-inflicted ones) that alienate I’s and moderates. It is clear that the House is going to keep digging right up until November and that the MSM will amplify anything negative about Trump with minimal, if any, regard for the truth. There are numerous leakers and anti-Trumpers in the WH, who will provide plenty of grist for the mill. Moreover, Trump himself provides a bonanza of material for the House to investigate and for the MSM to promote.
Taking all of this into account, I think that Bernie will get the nomination and lose to Trump. There is plenty not to like about DJT. But in the end, voters in AZ, GA, FL, NC, OH and WI will narrowly stick with the devil they know. Bernie may well flip PA and MI. Senate tightens to 51-49 and D’s keep the House and elect a new, more liberal speaker. And the rock throwing continues……….
Let’s revisit after NH, but before Super Tuesday. A lot will be happening on both sides between now and then!!
This is really a game of who shows up. Trump supporters will vote in mass. Will people show up to vote for Biden? I don’t think so. Will Joe Lunchbucket be showing up for Klobuchar or Bloomberg? I don’t think so. I tend to think people would show up to vote for the hard-core radical, Maoist, baby-killers like Warren or Sanders, but they will never, ever be allowed to defeat Biden by The Party.
Hillary is going to run again though. It’s obvious she will swoop in at the last minute HA Goodman has been on the money since 2015
There is no Democratic party- only the Clinton machine
Certainly it will be an interesting election. Common wisdom would be that a candidate can not have all the major media against him and win. Yet common wisdom would also tell you can in a strong economy the incumbent should win. I think that in the end, the election will be about which of these becomes the most powerful narrative. Can the media keep Trump on his heels? Can Trump generate enough advertising to frame the issue as one based on the economy?
Other minor issues also remain unresolved. Will manufacturing employees continue to support him, despite the fact that tariffs don’t work? Will farmers continue to support him, despite the losses that farmers have suffered? Will blacks, and other minorities cross over, realizing that they have benefited from Trump policies more than expected?
At this point, I have only questions, not answers. There is far too much that is unresolved for me to know how things will develop. The only thing I know for sure is that Trump has destroyed the traditional Republican party, and made it into something different than it was, and that the Socialists, meanwhile, are destroying the traditional Democrat party, and also making it into something different than it was.
My one prediction is that all of these changes are the beginning of a tectonic shift. The politics of the 20th Century were largely about race. The politics of the 21st Century will be about age.
Manufacturing workers, especially the ones filling the jobs recently created, arent going to have anyone else to vote for if they want to keep their jobs. Pretty much every candidate in both parties last election didnt make getting jobs back a consistent part of their campaign, except Trump. And that’s why Trump won.
Regarding the EC map, note even Biden is going to take FL in this cycle. It is going to go more red this time. NC too. AZ is a tossup. If Biden is the nominee you can put PA and WI back in the blue column which leaves OH and MI as must haves for Trump and the true battleground states.
This Dem field is too left for them to wrest AZ away and most voters there will just sit this one out or they could fall heavily into a Libertarian candidate like Hornberger splitting off the independent vote from turning the state blue.
Wanna bet? I am a democrat and I will be moving to Florida in the spring, and I WILL BE VOTING democrat in November. Trumpsky only won Florida because the Cuban bloc in South Florida tends to be the only conservative minority voting bloc in the country, they are not happy with him at all. Though some like his tough stance on Cuba reintroducing restrictions, many do not, they were being allowed under Obama to send funds to family there, and to go visit, now the border has all but been closed again and the pipeline of funds shut down. What the Cubans want in Miami seems to be that they will be the wealthy American business people that will take over when communism finally dies in Cuba. And they believed that the blockade and embargo was going to get that done for them, till Obama opened up travel and friendlier relations. Then the Cuban Floridians saw that that was working far better to get the communists to change than anything since Bautista was overthrown. They are NOT going to be the GOP voting robots they have been in the past, they will be split and the GOP will lose because without the Cuban voters Florida goes blue.
“People pat themselves on the back for predicting a Trump win. In reality, they were lucky.”
No, with me it was NOT luck. I predicted Trump would win and won a dinner bet with a friend over it. My reasoning was based historical analysis.
Whenever the presidency changes hands, the winner is the one who is, at least, perceived to be an ‘outsider’. I only count three elections – 1840, 1920 and 1988 -where the insider wins if the presidency changes hands.
Typical ‘outsiders’ who win the presidency are governors. They aren’t necessarily outsiders – Jimmy Carter belonged to some international groups – but they are perceived as such.
Who is an insider? Two examples are sitting vice presidents and sitting Senators. Only two sitting vice presidents have been elected president – Van Buren and Bush 41. And just three sitting Senators have ever been elected – Harding, Kennedy and Obama. Kennedy ran against a sitting vice president. Obama ran against another sitting Senator, McCain, who had been ‘sitting’ for quite a few more terms than Obama.
Hillary was the ultimate insider even though she was not in office when she ran. She had been a former ‘hands on’ first lady, a former New York senator and a former Secretary of State.
Trump was the ultimate outsider. If it weren’t for revelations about his vulgar talk on Howard Stern, he would have beaten Hillary by a landslide.
So who will win in 2020? Most likely it will be the one perceived as an outsider. Trump is supposed to be an insider now except when he’s being himself. The only outsider running for the Dems is Butti-whatever.
I hope the Dems nominate someone else because I am so sick of war that it now overrides every other issue combined. I’d rather have fucking Marxist for peace than warmongering killer like Bush, even if I agreed with the warmonger on every domestic issue.
I see Gabbard as the only outsider with a vibrant message in the D group. Buttigieg is just not going to appeal to the vast majority of people. Not in this cycle.
“Mish keep to finance – your TDS makes the US election a blind spot. There is no one who can beat Trump.”
One has to be TDS-Deranged to accuse me of having TDS
What a moron
Mish, I’m so hurt you called me a moron. You spent a long winded article arguing a concept when all it comes down to is there is no one who can beat Trump. That is TDS.
You aren’t a moron, you are both just talking past each other without meaning to.
To you there is no-one around who can beat Trump, not because Trump is (or isn’t) great. To not see that is to be obsessed about Trump.
Mish reads that as meaning because you think Trump is so great.
So who’s deranged I don’t know, all I think is that to beat Trump people will have to truly want change from the last few years. As an outsider, I don’t think Trump has been that bad, the US is stable in a way under his presidency that it wasn’t before. As for keeping to his election pledges, well that is reality, but he will have to come up with a way to move past that, to level the account, and that means a bit of redress and presenting some accountability. That means also getting back in touch with marginal voters and their concerns, and before it seems out of utility.
Of course you’d have to be deranged not to vote for Trump Mish! The man is a stable genius – he keeps telling us. All the stable geniuses I know remind me of their status on a regular basis just like Trump. They also remind me that the Kaiser is trying to steel their string, and they say incogerent things like “covfefe” and forget the words to the National Anthem – it is what “stable geniuses” do!
“One has to be TDS-Deranged to accuse me of having TDS”
Question for you Mish: Does Trump Derangement Syndrome refer to idiot Trumpies, or does it refer to people against Trump who are driven mad by his antics?
I see it used both ways.
I’m still assuming Trump will win in 2020, but I have no data to back it up. Nobody has failed in a reelection bid since 1992. The DNC won’t nominate Bernie, so one of the other blue teamers would have to win.
More importantly, it doesn’t really matter whether he wins or not. After the Iraq strikes this weekend, it’s another sign that he’ll allow himself to be dragged into a confrontation with Iran. Either Trump is powerless to prevent it or he’s complicit, but the result is the same either way. Foreign policy was the only reason to have any optimism about Trump so there is nothing left to support. Otherwise he’s just a guy with an irrational love of tariffs who constantly whines for the Fed to keep cutting rates. Any mainstream politician can snuggle up to the Fed and rely on cheap money.
Other than social mood not much would change if Trump or the blue team wins, just like it didn’t change when Obama took over for Bush or Trump took over for Obama. It doesn’t take much intelligence or insight to know that there will be a lot of debt and social strife in the US and globally in the coming years.
Look at the extraordinary turn of events that took for failure in the 1992 reelection bid. Same thing with failed reelection bid in 1980 but not quite as dramatic.
“Other than social mood not much would change ” … “there will be a lot of debt and social strife in the US and globally in the coming years.”
OUCH ! That rings so true with me.
Now who do we think would profit from such a scenario?
Thee most accurate predictions of the 2016 election was Styxhexenhammer666. Let’s see what his latest about Trump is. You might also check out Scott Adams, who went public and predicted a Trump win even though he knew he would lose a large portion of his followers. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NjFa97MIbO4
I will also add my own prediction. Hillary Clinton will throw her hat in the ring in January. The rest of the Democratic clowns are just her actors and actresses put there to make her look acceptable.
That would be awesome. 🙂
Nothing has changed… Democrats all bow to the highest bidder.
Would you be willing to bet on this prediction or is this just for fun?
Depends on who i am betting with.
I was just asking Mish the strength of his view – is this more analysis/ discussion or is this a “I’m about to make a bet on this view”
What actual crimes did Trump commit?? Answer: Not one. Here is what really is happening so pay careful attention. That liberal commie Ruth Bader Ginsberg is about to croak opps I mean die. Hopefully that happy day arrives sooner than later. Trump will get the chance to appoint a real conservative to the Supreme Court and then the court can begin to undo 50 plus years of liberal Anti-American court rulings and the liberal establishment can’t stand for that to happen so in complete desperation they concoct a bogus and fake impeachment to try to prevent the President from getting the chance to replace that worthless Ginsburg with a true American Justice. And that is what this whole impeachment circus is all about. My opinion but I think I am 100% correct.
This isn’t about Trump’s “crimes”. The electoral circus is all about performances and perceptions.
As for the supreme court undoing 50 plus years of liberal rulings, good luck with that. Never gonna happen. “Cthulhu may swim slowly. But he only swims left”. The US in its current form is unfixable.
Completely disagree with you and the fact that Trump won is all the proof I need to make my point. Trump beat the establishment and he will beat them again and his second term will return America to the way the Framers of the Constitution intended.
How?
Why not the first term?
Only Ron Paul could have ever actually accomplished that goal to return to the Framers’ vision. The best President we never had.
Liberal commie RBG eh? You have managed to lose any and all credibility with that slander alone. You may or may not like her rulings but she is among the greatest jurists to ever live, and compared yo your berr boufing asshole rapist O’kavanough she is light years ahead of anything you guys ever put on the courts. As to Trump’s crimes, where to begin? If you seriously do not know then you never will because you are in deep denial. Low information voters are like that, anything that challenges their warped racist nationalist views is simply ignored.
Good piece. A different pov, intelligently articulated:
https://amgreatness.com/2019/12/29/trumps-failures/
It could all be kabuki, but perhaps we are in for a little bit of political cataclysm in the States. Although I find it hard to believe the system will air its own dirty laundry in public, nevertheless things are shaping up for quite a climactic Season Finale in the Trump Reality TV Presidency. If the whole NSA-FISA-FBI-CIA-Senators-Media thing blows up – as looks like it might in next few months – all bets are off in terms of the Presidential Election.
And also, Trump is only 5 RINO votes away from being the first US President in history to be both impeached and removed after a Senate trial. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if in next few days some heavy bombshell stuff doesn’t come out coinciding with the Senate getting ready for some motions needing only 51 votes to pass determining much of the trial process. Quite possibly the Dems will get their witnesses passed in such motions but the R’s will not since Trump’s witnesses will expose how rotten is the State of Denmark whereas the D’s witnesses will only show how Trump truly is Orange Man Bad like they have been insisting all along. Past history suggests the Senate might well turn in favor of the Swamp and against an narcissistic interloper. The denouement of all this, however it plays out, might change many electoral equations.
If they take Trump out in an unconvincing fashion, the country will be the closest to breaking up since the Civil War. The chances of their doing that is slim so most likely we’ll get an acquittal and more talking points war. But it’s going to be an extremely hostile, and increasingly uncivil election since impeachment will be seen as a major crime the other side has perpetrated, i.e. both sides will be demonizing the other no holds barred. Nasty.
If Trump is still standing, he wins, but the country might never survive the ordeal.
But until the FISA business plays out, I think it’s too early to call. That whole business could end up being a real game-changer politically. I think your analysis above makes a lot of sense. But if it turns out that affair features a solid Trump counter punch exposing many bad actors who have not been playing fair, most likely he’s going to get more like 330, and also both House and Senate.
Trump is Miles away from being removed.
Takes 67 Senate votes
Of course, yes, which is why removal is highly unlikely. But that’s ground level reality. In the cyber-media ‘talking points’ level of reality, he’s already guilty, but depending on how the trial process plays out, most likely he will be proven guilty beyond reasonable doubt in the court of Official Media-Democrat Opinion, whilst found not guilty in the Senate trial.
After which you have a classic ‘throw the bums out’ election in order to rid the country of a corrupt, immoral, racist, homophobic, narcissistic President and a corrupt, enabling, thoroughly evil, right wing Republican-controlled Senate. It will be vicious since both sides will increasingly demonize the other, even more than already got out of hand in 2016 and immediately after the election.
I don’t expect them, but wouldn’t be at all surprised if finally we start to see more riots again…
PS Some more recent poll numbers:
https://zogbyanalytics.com/news/910-the-zogby-poll-2020-presidential-election-report
If we Democrats want to dump Trump, and avoid King Donald, Queen Ivanka and King Junior, all we have to do is show up and vote. 2018 proved that. Not an easy task when the young people naturally want to party all night and sleep in all day. But anyway … I myself voted for Donald in 2016 because, more than any other issue: “It’s the economy, stupid.” Im surrounded by friends who I really dont think will have a dime when they turn 70. Jobs, jobs, jobs. Hillary didnt care about jobs. She cared about Wall Street and Hollywood. Couldnt vote for her. At least Trump would go to econonic war with China. Im not sure what Im gonna do because Biden is a carbon copy of Hillary: sat there for 40 years while jobs left. Mayor Pete might be fun to watch …
The appeal of Biden to Dems is he effortlessly and instantly puts PA and WI back into the blue column. He only needs an OH, AZ or MI to win after that. I don’t see the Dems doing as well in FL as they did in 2016.
If defeated Mr. Trump will, for the sake of American People interest, dissolve congress, abolish the institute. Establish a Trump Republic of America
Did uncle Joe teach you how to troll? Because you are not very good at it.
Mish keep to finance – your TDS makes the US election a blind spot. There is no one who can beat Trump.
I tend to agree with you.
While married couples often elect, this time given how many people Trump has pissed off beyond belief, I”m thinking the youngers may be very motivated to dump him this time, as opposed to 2016 when Hillary supposedly had it in the bag …
Hillary will have her hands full defending Bill as this Epstein scandal continues to unfold. I think Bill is in big trouble with underage girls and maybe his time has come to be caught?
You are forgetting the fact that they and all democrats are above the law no matter what.
The hallmark of TDS is accusing someone else of having it.
I believe you are wrong, I think the only person that CANNOT beat Trump is Sanders. As a lifelong democrat that feels it is his duty to vote the nomination of Sanders is the only one that would see me voting for Trump.
In fact I also think that this is going to be the archetypal hold your nose and pull the lever election, one for the history books, but it will be a landslide for the democrat and one major problem the Trump party has is he is even losing the old GOP base. Demographics are against you. More republicans have died than democrats, and more democrats are entering the electorate than republicans. It is simple, republicans are older and mostly white, while democrats tend to be younger and better educated, and minorities overwhelingly vote democrat (when they bother to vote at all). 2020 will see anyone who was even tempted to vote but did not bother before to get off their asses and make sure that Trump is gone. You cannot underestimate the motivation to get rid of him, the only people who will be sitting this election out on the left are the Sanders’ borg just as they did in 2016, but then they were always doing nothing but play the spoiler for democrats anyway. They try to deny it but their denials are laced with hate for the democrats, they see us as the only impediment to a socialist empire. They also can stick it in their ears. There will still be enough democrats to defeat the Trump Party in November and I also think to take back the senate and that is what the GOP is REALLY worried about, they have no shot at the house, the senate will likely flip, and Trump is going to be indicted the moment he leaves the White House.