Biden Now Leads in Six States Key to Trump’s 2016 Victory, most by significant margins.
Biden’s improved polling in battleground states comes from a cross-section of demographic groups, but the Times poll shows the most significant movement comes among White voters — especially college-educated ones — and young people. He’s also flipped voters age 65 and older to his column, which helps to explain his standing in Florida and Arizona.
Only 31% of battleground voters approve of Trump’s response to the Floyd protests, and 63% say they would rather that the president address the causes of discriminatory policing than cracking down on protesters.
The roots of Trump’s troubles in Michigan may be deeper. There, 37% of voters say Trump treated the state more unfairly than most in responding to the coronavirus after the president feuded with Governor Gretchen Whitmer over her criticism of the federal response.
The Times poll shows neither candidate getting more than 50% support in any battleground state, suggesting that there’s still room for undecided voters to have an impact.
And state-level polling — despite its key to forecasting the Electoral College result — is generally less reliable than national polling. In 2016, national polls were largely accurate in predicting a popular vote win for Clinton but failed to anticipate Trump’s narrow victories in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Recent Battleground State Polls
Above composite created from 538 Latest Poll list.
Rating the Raters
538 rates Siena as A+, Marquette Law A/B, Quinnipiac B+, and Public Policy VB.
Margins of Error
Yes the polls were wrong in 2016, but more so at the state level where it mattered.
But Trump barely won Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
All of those states were within the margin of error.
Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are no longer within the margin of error.
Florida and Arizona are borderline. Ohio and North Carolina are within the margin of error but Trump can still win.
Trump Can Still Win
I rate Biden’s odds of winning at 70%.
People do not understand these things, mostly because they don’t want to, so let me spell out the math.
The Math
- 70 ≠ 100
- 30 ≠ 0
- 30 ≠ 95
Plug in any numbers you want, but if you think Trump is in the lead, think of yourself as mathematically challenged as well as having TDS Type II.
Factors
- There are just over 4 months to the election.
- It is no longer that early (but it also is not irrecoverably late).
- Trump’s path of victory is extremely narrow.
- Biden’s path of victory is wide.
- The economy is in recession.
- Swing voters indicate they are sick of Trump.
- No matter what you believe, polls show people strongly disapprove of Trump’s handling of Covid.
- No matter what you believe, people strongly disapprove of Trump’s handling of George Floyd.
- Focus on superficial issues like Lobsters is damn silly.
- Trump just cannot stay away from inane Tweets of all sorts.
Law and Order Tweets are Counterproductive
If you disagree please see point 8 above.
ChinaVirus Tweets are Counterproductive
If you disagree please see point 7 above.
Blatant Lie on Lobsters
Trump doubles down on nearly everything, including lobsters.
The fact of the matter is Trump destroyed the lobster industry with inane tariffs.
I Believe These Are Yours
Trump Lies From Lobsters to Ventilators
Bloomberg called out Trump Lies today in regards to sinking polls.
The president on Wednesday night announced some new initiatives to help the Maine lobster industry, and accompanied the plan with a false tweet claiming that “Pres. Obama destroyed the lobster and fishing industry in Maine.
Sure, he can keep falsely claiming that Obama destroyed the lobster industry. But no one aside from his strongest supporters is going to believe him, and reporters are going to check the facts because they expect to prove him wrong.
After all, they’ve surely seen CNN’s reporting on Trump’s “wildly inaccurate” claims that Obama had left him no ventilators; it turns out that according to the administration’s own figures the number was actually 16,000 — or more than they’ve distributed so far during the coronavirus outbreak. And this is hardly the only tall tale that Trump has repeated.
For further discussion, please see Trump Threatens China Over Lobsters.
Fake News of the Day
On June 24, Trump proclaimed “States Testing Too Much”.
This was the Fake News of the Day
Texas was one of the 5 states Trump complained about. He shut down testing at some Texas sites including Dallas.
Texas Halts Reopening Due to Coronavirus Surge
Today Texas was forced to Halt Reopening Due to Coronavirus Surge
Guess who prodded Arizona, Florida, and Texas to reopen early.
If you do not believe Biden is hugely in the lead, then you have TDS II.
But it’s not over yet.
70 ≠ 100
The one poll that matters is in November.
But the way Trump is headed, it is far more likely Trump loses in a landslide than he wins at all.
Mish
If you think Biden winning the presidency over Trump you are fooling yourself. All you will get is more Left wing chaos and higher taxes. Look around at all the looting and destruction championed by the democrat party nationwide.
Trump is behind in all 17 of the most recent polls in 6 key battleground states. In addition, Trump trails in the most recent Ohio poll.
But, we his base are 100% behind him.
Once Flynn is cleared by the Justice department and he talks about the Obama regime conspiracies. I would not be surprised if Biden is not subpoenaed. That is the end of his campaign
Clintons own the democratic party . . . she is waiting in the wings . . . she will be called at the right moment . . . she has a vendetta against Trump . . .
Trump, when asked by Hannity about his priorities for a second term, said:
…Well, one of the things that will be really great, you know the word experience is still good. I always say talent is more important than experience. I’ve always said that. But the word experience is a very important word. It’s an — a very important meaning.
I never did this before. I never slept over in Washington. I was in Washington, I think, 17 times. All of a sudden, I’m president of the United States. You know the story. I’m riding down Pennsylvania Avenue with our First Lady and I say, ‘This is great. But I didn’t know very many people in Washington. It wasn’t my thing. I was from Manhattan, from New York. Now I know everybody, and I have great people in the administration.”
You make some mistakes. Like, you know, an idiot like Bolton. All he wanted to do was drop bombs on everybody. You don’t have to drop bombs on everybody. You don’t have to kill people….
I literally couldn’t believe it when Trump hired Bolton. Someone would’ve needed to be in a coma for the past 20 years to not know that Bolton is a massive warmonger. So the fact that Trump apparently didn’t know Bolton’s reputation ahead of time speaks volumes about his judgement.
The US will be heaven on earth with a (another) corrupt fuck at the helm ! No doubt about it …
Mish, it’s clear that you’ve developed a disdain for Trump over his term. I get it the guy has his flaws but here’s what I’d like to know, do you really think things get better with Biden and the Dems in control? You’re leaving or have already left Illinois for Utah. You’ve seen firsthand what happens to states that are under liberal democratic control. I’ve seen you repeatedly bash Trump, so does this mean you’re all in with Biden and everyone who comes along with him? I haven’t seen you address this side of the equation and I’d be interested in seeing you post why you think things for our county improve under a Biden presidency.
It won’t get better, but it will at least get worse more slowly. Why reward trump for failure by re-electing him?
And people voting for Trump will say exactly the same thing… the country is screwed, but at least Trump is slowing the descent. Democrats aren’t going to “lift all boats” with their plans.
Mish will point out the flaws in Biden, too. I can’t recall him saying anything positive about Biden, can you? I don’t think he is pro-Biden at all. I think he is critical of Trump, and justifiably so. I can’t think of any criticisms he has had of Trump that are unfounded.
Biden has had an easy time lately, content to sit in the shadows of his basement and let Trump screw up. Not a bad strategy, really. But the debates are going to be a train wreck for Biden and his feeble senile mind. Will his performances rattle voters enough to care – who knows? As it stands, I feel like half the Democrats are expecting Biden to win on name recognition, then step aside on the day after inauguration and let his black female VP have the reins.
What Biden is doesn’t matter at this point. The only thing that matters is that he isn’t trump. They could trot out hillary for VP and he’d still win. They could probably even swap hillary in for president and she would win. trump barely beat her last time, and that’s before everybody saw what a global disaster trump is.
The trumplings are backing the loser.
‘Trump is a global disaster’ ? rrrmm…. I d rather say that the globe is a disaster, in all aspects….with or without Trump !
Biden may not agree to debates. He has nothing to gain from them. Trump refused to release tax returns, which have customarily been released, so does precedent really matter?
If Biden can get away with not showing his face and saying dumb stuff before the election, he will definitely win by a landslide. And with far and away most media organizations favoring him, he just may get away with that.
The Trump side won’t let that slide without a fight, though. “You have to vote for the candidate first, so we can see who is” may be Democracy The Pelosi Way; but man, will Trumplings throw a fit over it.
The Biden campaign has already commited to 3 debates, no? I suppose they could try to renege under the guise of worsening Covid-19 risks.
At first I also though Biden’s senility would be a huge impediment, but we’re at the endgame of the American empire where people no longer vote for a candidate, they vote against the other one. We’ve been trending in that direction for a while and it seems we’ve finally reached a post-idea society. These two candidates don’t even need platforms to run on!
Can’t imagine the virus surge we are seeing in the swing states will help Trump that much.
He needs the FoxNewsGrampa demographic, and coronavirus is picking them off.
What happens when Trump and Biden meet on the debate stage?
Elections are about turnout. You can complain about an elected official all you like, but if their opponent does not motivate you enough to go to the polls, what difference does it make.
Questioning the polls is also valid for several reasons.
2)Its too early and public mood shifts rapidly. Trump has proved to be like Teflon in 2016, will Biden fare as well in the event of an October surprise?
3)Historical precedent: incumbents fare better in second term elections.
4)A discrepancy in polls regarding the rest of the country and republican voters. He clearly still has the confidence of republican voters who are likely to more consistently respondent of their true voting intentions.
“What happens when Trump and Biden meet on the debate stage?”
Maybe comedy gold, maybe two pathetic old men trying to zing each other, maybe both.
Whatever happens, afterwards, trump will lose the election.
That’s a bit of inflexible thinking. There is a way for Trump to win the election this year and the path is well defined. Since the Advent of television, America had picked presidents based on debate performances. Biden might not be able to complete the debate and has a hard time stay coherent. I was recently watching a YouTube video and was interupted by an ad. At first I thought it was a trump campaign ad mocking Biden. Only at the end did I figure, it was actually a Biden campaign ad. He’s not there.
I think there is a definite possibility of no debates this year.
How could you vote against the most perfect person?
….President Donald Trump bragged about being “perfect” during a Fox News appearance that was broadcast on Thursday evening.
“I think I am the probably — a friend of mine said, ‘you have to be the most perfect person.’ Isn’t that true?” Trump asked.
Fox News anchor Sean Hannity then cut to a commercial break….
You are too funny unless of course you mean a perfect idiot.
‘you have to be the most perfect person.’
… and then trump gave his ‘friend’ a fat slice of government pork.
Once again we are left with two mainstream presidential candidates that leave a lot to be desired. At least Joe Biden is not “unelectable” like Hilary but he is definitely past his “sell by” date. On the other hand Trump is pushing himself into the “unelectable” column given his handling of the COVID crisis, his treatment of women and minorities and his general mean spiritedness. He is divisive at a time that calls for national unity. That said it is only a matter of time before the GOP roll out the attack dogs and go after Biden in the worst possible way. We also due for one of Biden’s classic “foot in mouth“ episodes. It is sad state of affairs that the American people are left with two flawed, some would say deeply flawed, presidential candidates. I would say let the best man win but this time round it is more like let the worst man lose. Right now that looks likely to be the Trumpster.
“It is sad state of affairs that the American people are left with two flawed”
That’s no different than in any other totalitarian state. It’s not as if Kim’s cousin vs Kim’s niece, is all that much better.
The fundamental, underlying flawedness of any Dear Leader, is too much power. I’m sure Jefferson had plenty of tendencies towards flawedness as well. But he had the benefit of a $7mill federal budget, no Fed, no IRS, no Army nor much of anything else to be flawed with. Making it a lot easier for him to not be so flawed. Restrict Trump similarly, and he would have a hard time practicing too much in the way of flawedness as well.
Interesting point re Jefferson. He was very early to the presidential power grab when he hired Lewis and Clark for their expedition without congressional approval or funding – until they got back.
I would expect Trump to be behind, after all we were told there are 120 million dead from coronavirus.
I would expect you to barf up the daily talking point, and so you have!
We are down to 18 weeks till we vote. And the way things have been going that just means Trump has 18 weeks left to be an even worse disaster for himself. I don’t put that much faith in polls, but if he did somehow pull off another poopular vote loss and electoral win given these polls as they are I suspect the margin of popular vote would be a lot larger than last time, and I would say that the US would erupt in riots that will make Floyd George rioting look like Mormon missionaries going door to door.
I think there are riots either way. People are still unemployed, and it looks like there isn’t going to be more aid for them. Forbearances and eviction moratoriums will be gone, their unemployment will have run out weeks ago, and they will probably be going hungry a fair amount.
trump has caused the government and economy to fail badly for anyone making less than 500k a year, and the bottom 20% is looking at an existential threat.
I agree, I suspect that there will be near revolution no matter who wins – and perhaps that’s what we need. Of course the Trumpers are better armed. . .
I would not bet on them being better armed… and their obesity is a yuuuuge liability in that kind of scenario. They do have the advantage of being able to live off their fat for a month or so, so the optimal strategy would be to wait, and slim down while the skinnies get weak THEN pounce!
HAHA, good plan
They may be better armed but they also on average are a LOT older, and they are grossly outnumbered. So I doubt they will actively seek out other people to shoot at.
Still, I am thinking about buying a gun for the house. I did not want to have guns in the house but it is looking like a matter of survival at this point. I am far enough away from the city that I should not have to worry, but we have our own poor who are going to get hungry enough soon to simply go on robbing sprees. The same isolated privacy I so coveted when house shopping works for criminals as well when they are selecting homes to target.
I feel bad for the decent people in the cities who have to live with racial hate and anger and now that the economy has been tanked, hungry criminals, and the cops neutered, they must be starting to think with a bunker mentality.
Not saying you are wrong, but the Political Science guys say riots are less likely when people are truly struggling, than when they feel a little better and more confident.
Such that riots are generally a spring phenomenon, and generally driven by people who still have something, just less than they used to.
While once its all gone, things are truly bad, and people have nothing left to lose: Random criminality; home invasions, kidnappings, holdups etc.; are more likely to result, than riots.
….And then, in order to have some order restored at least locally; people will start converting to rather stern interpretations of Islam…..
Expect to see the Libertarian candidate polling somewhere in double digits by September and October. By that time Biden will have as many electability issues on the table as Trump and a strong disgust will set in with the supposed “choices”. I’m not real interested in the polls as they stand now because they don’t include many factors that will be more pressing than Floyd or Covid by that time. Trump is definitely behind now but I don’t see him losing FL or AZ this time. I also think that Michigan and Pennsylvania will be solid blue because that is Biden’s strong area.
I don’t know about AZ but I do not think he will get Florida this time. For one thing DeSantis is pretty unpopular. And a LOT of people in Florida are very unhappy with how unemployment is being handled as the republican state government has done absolutely everything they can to cut people off and deny unemployment to people out of work. Plus, unemployment here maxes out at $275 per week, one of the lowest in the nation, even in Kentucky weekly UI maxes out at $552 per week plus the $600 per week federal, and we are only a little over 4 weeks away from that extra $600 per week ending with democrats wanting to extend it to Jan. 31 and republicans vowing that any possible second stimulus will not include that $600 UI benefit. That alone will be enough to push a blue wave and Biden to landslide territory as we will still have about 20 million unemployed when the UI ends. In fact, Mississippi, Louisiana, Florida, Alabama, Tennessee, and Arizona are all under $300 per week for UI. That is two big swing states where between them many will be in truly desperate financial shape by November. But if you look a little deeper at state UI we also see Georgia at $365 per week, Michigan at $362, Nevada at $469 (trust me that is not enough there), North Carolina at $350, Virginia at $378, and Wisconsin at $370.
Now that may not sound like it is fair to Trump but fair has really very little to do with presidential elections as we saw in 2016. In fact the key psychological barrier here is about $500 per week and anyone getting less than that is going to have a supremely hard time just eating and keeping a roof. And while some of the economy will be reopening and the number of unemployed will be lower, with only now 4 months to go till we vote that fear will still be in people’s heads. I actually believe that the optimism about the so called “V” shaped recover is strongly unwarranted. And a lot of people that the democrats in federal government intended to get UI benefits simply were denied at the state level so got neither.
Also, forbearance on rent and mortgages are about to end and people will start to lose housing. In the meanwhile democrats are calling for more benefits, larger and faster, while the GOP in the senate and Trump in the White House oppose them. Sure Trump occasionally issues weak hints that he might be open to a second stimulus, but if he were a strong leader he would twist arms in the senate to make that happen and he does not. Everyone knows it is just lip service. Everyone knows the republicans would not only not allow it to pass but that they would end all forms of UI on any level if they could get away with it.
Conservative ALWAYS lose in crap economies and we will still be in a crap economy in November.
The Libertarians have blundered a great opportunity. They nominated a sound candidate, who has good policies, in Jojo Jorgensen. Unfortunately, they were unable to nominate a VP Candidate. Oh, there is a name on ballot, but he is a joke candidate. He was the running companion for Vermin Supreme, the guy with a boot on his head, and both had as their campaign platform a free pony for everyone.
The horror is that, if Jojo is polling 10%, she may be the first Libertarian who is invited to the debates, but that will also mean that joke supreme’s running mate will appear in the VP debate and destroy the party forever.
Agreed.
I wish they would have taken a look at the field and realized that they had a legitimate opportunity to at least show up…
At what other point in history will they be able to run against a candidate who can’t do anything but repeat cliches or congratulate himself and another who can’t remember what he had for breakfast?
The rugged independence thing isn’t gonna fly this year. We may have people actually starving by the time the election rolls around.
At any rate, it’s too late for the libertarians to do anything meaningful. The country is already bankrupt. Might as well max the credit cards and hit that brick wall at top speed.
Libertarians are truly the only party that supports fiscal prudence. The other parties are absolutely heading for that brick wall at top speed. A trillion here, a trillion there. Pretty soon you’re talking about real money.
It’s highly unlikely “fiscal prudence,” going forward, will do it anymore. Things are far too gone for that.
And, at least as of yet, the Libertarians; perhaps aside from the ones with boots on their heads; aren’t willing to run on a program of strictly enforcing both current and future fiscal prudence; by straight up defaulting on all existing debt, and hence effectively telling everyone out there to not lend us any money any more.
Eventually, all that debt, and more, will be defaulted on regardless. So it’s really only a matter of kicking the can, vs taking out the trash. And the longer “we” keep insisting on the former, the greater the probability that the ones ending up doing the latter, will be a bunch of Jihadis or similar.
Carl, 15 days ago we crossed the $26 trillion mark on federal government debt, as of today we are at 26 trillion 301 billion, in just two weeks we added another third of a trillion. Fiscal rectitude is utterly meaningless at this point. We could strip government functions to the absolute bone and still not even begin to repay that in generations, centuries. And even if we could and did vow to repay it the money would just go to the top 10% of the population since under Raygun they were allowed to stop paying a fair share of the taxes and begin to lend it to the government at interest. So, they SHOULD have allowed everyone to stop paying taxes and instead buy treasury debt in lieu of those taxes, that would have been the FAIR thing to do. If you are going to do it for a select few rich you need to do it for all. So all the support of the government the rich contributed was pretty much loans they made to DC. They retain ownership of that wealth while the poor and middle class were just reamed for taxes.
All suggested solutions I have ever seen are just non starters so it will keep going down the same ruinous road till we collapse. When? I don’t know, but I will live to see it and I am 62.
Herkie, I hope you have finally kicked that infection, and are feeling better. Based on the tone of your recent posts, I’m thinking you have.
I’m a few years older than you, at 65, but I also expect to live long enough to see the collapse. It can’t be more than 20 years off.
LOL, I had to look up Vermin Supreme but I will say this, I would vote for Vermin before I would vote for an African American female democrat that supports slave reparations or a universal basic income that is NOT universal.
This is less about Biden and more about Trump. I dare say anyone including the devil could be the opponent to Trump and Trump would be down in the polls. I see a bounce for Trump later this summer when the death rate us actually the same as the flu but it looks worse because of no vaccine. I expect that in fall Trump’s numbers sink again as his tax returns are released and find some funny business with Russian oligarchs being part of his tax scam.
I expect the reverse. I expect that as it becomes clear how many people have disabilities because of Covid, and that starts getting added to the death toll to reflect the true cost, people will realize just how massive the cost will be for how we have handled this.
Trump is riding a tiger, he has NO CHOICE but to win or he will spend the rest of his life fighting one idictment after another. I think the anti Trump sentiment is big enough and durable enough that it will survive till November 3 just now less than 18 weeks away, and I predict that the blue wave that goes with it will turn the senate over to the democrats. With all organs of elective office in their hands they are going to go after Trump and I suspect as well they are going to root out the more politically minded partisan appointments to the federal bench. They also are going to go after Barr I think. Possibly O’Kavanaugh. Though his rulings of late are far more moderate than he boasted of in his so called hearings. I believe he knows what is coming and does not want to add to the fervor the democrats will be going after far right conservative with. But, it is not even far right conservatives that are the problem, because TRUE conservatives have zero in common with Trump. They know he is as phony as a 6 dollar bill.
Polls were wrong in the past and the this time the Dems have really shown America how Crazy they are and will be if elected. The national odds are for Trump to win against a radical left party……they really are not Democrats anymore. Not enough people will come out for Biden who cannot even stream a full logical sentence from his mouth……he definitely has some form of dementia . Trump will surprise people with another win.
LOL; BIDEN can’t “who cannot even stream a full logical sentence from his mouth…”
That is rich, thanks for the laugh of the day. By the time the election rolls around in just four short months so many people will be losing housing and UI benefits in an economy still tainted by virus that Trump would be lucky to get his 35% raving base.
And you’re saying that the Republican party is the party of common sense and practicality? With a narcissistic sociopath (who can’t stream a full logical sentence) at the top of the ticket? Wow.
Biden has the huge advantage of both not yet being “responsible” for any of the ongoing, and accelerating, decay which has been going on for decades; as well as of not being forced into the limelight to flaunt his incompetence every single day.
The longer he can sit in the background and let Trump self flagellate in public, the better off he will be.
Trump, OTOH, needs to focus on getting Biden in front of cameras as well. With both of them being so obviously clueless, this election is going to be the exception which proves the rule that all exposure is good exposure.
Watching them, will be like watching a senile guy and a crazy guy hopping around on stage shooting themselves in both feet, and seeing who can last the longest before he falls over.
Stuki, I would not at all be surprised if come October Barr issues a statement that they are investigating Biden for one made up charge or another, that is how they work. Trump (and possibly Putin once again) will be changing votes in unprotected insecure voting machines and he will eek out another win, but for that to work he cannot be 10-20 points behind in the polls and there has to be at least some reason given why people decided they could not trust Biden more than they cannot trust Trump. Announcing a major criminal investigation into a Biden would be just plausible enough to say that voters went cold on Biden at the last minute.
Many parts of the world probably prefer tRump to win the election, because they then get free circus show everyday
Only the comedians
Pooty poot and Pooh Bear love watching our country collapse…. they’re big supporters.
There’s something a bit scary, about a circus where the clowns have nukes.
And the Zogby Poll has Trump beating Biden. Which poll do you want to believe?
hmm – let me see
17 polls all saying the same thing in battleground states
1 Zogby poll
I will go with Zogby
Zogby is biased to the right but even if it were correct it shows in every single state that is considered a swing state including AZ and GA Trump’s disapproval numbers are higher than his approval number and most by double digits. Even TX is a dead heat.
Things will be worse by November as many are about to start losing housing and that extra UI from the feds. Forbearance is about to end in just a month. Even if the economy significantly improves by election day the memory of the pure economic terror will not have sufficiently faded and we ALL know who wants stimulus (democrats) and who wants to crush any help for the out of work (republicans in the senate).
Maybe if we just give the banks more money that they can’t safely lend, it’ll all go away?
The Trumpster is headed for the dumpster. What are the odds on the Republican Party strong arming Trump to stand down for health reasons? Might be the only way the GOP can hang onto the Senate. There is a real risk that Trump will drag down the entire Republican Party in November.
Hilarious how confident they were.
I’m a contractor in Ca, always meeting and talking with homeowners, and he will not win Ca but I am surprised how many people are for Trump, they are vehemently opposed to what the left did to try hold this guy back, very successfully I would add.
I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins again.
Popcorn ready to go.