Let’s discuss momentum. Nate Silver mostly dismisses it, but I don’t. And the election is in 17 days.
Yesterday, the Silver Bulletin election model flipped from Harris to Trump barely. That’s the first Trump lead since September 19.
Does Trump Have Momentum?
My answer is clearly. But Nate Silver mostly disagrees in his Q&A yesterday Does Trump Have Momentum?
To be open about my editorial thought process, it can be hard to know how much to emphasize these small shifts. Outside of major events like debates, the model typically does not move very much from day to day. And there’s no special significance to the 50-yard line. A change from 49.4 percent to 50.2 percent does not particularly matter more than one from 43.1 percent to 43.9 percent or 52.5 percent to 53.3 percent.
I agree with Silver on the difference on tiny shifts. But mercy, look at the cumulative shifts as shown in the lead chart.
Percentage Point Changes In the Last Month
- National: +8.5
- Michigan: +12.6
- Pennsylvania: +8.7
- Wisconsin: +8.9
Don’t worry Harris fans, this all happened with “tiny shifts”.
Silver continues …
The point is that most people tend to bet (literally in the case of prediction market traders) on trends continuing. If Trump has gone from 42 percent to 50 percent, in other words — already bad news for Harris — “momentum” implies that he’ll keep moving up: perhaps by Election Day, he’ll be at 60 percent, for instance. And that would be really bad news for Harris, the point where we could no longer honestly describe the race as a toss-up.
Once again, I disagree.
As in sports, momentum can change. So nothing implies Trump won’t put his foot in his mouth, or that Harris won’t have a disastrous interview.
But would you rather be in Trump’s shoes now or Kamila’s? As recently as a few days ago, Silver preferred Harris.
A good election forecast avoids momentum
The Silver Bulletin election forecasts are explicitly designed to be momentumless. In other words, the best prediction of what the forecast says tomorrow is what it says today; the technical term for this is that it avoids autocorrelation.
That is sort of reasonable. Overweighting the most recent polls too much leads to daily flip-flops on meaningless random changes.
But these changes are neither meaningless nor random. They are cumulative and reasonably consistent in direction.
Silver finally relented, after dismissing momentum for pages with …
The most important takeaways is are that 1) Trump has made real gains — at this point, we’re probably beyond the point where this can just be statistical noise but 2) you should be wary when you hear media talk about “momentum”: that he’s gained ground over the past two weeks does not necessarily imply that he’ll continue to do so.
I agree with both points emphatically, but momentum usually does not change unless there is an event. In football that might be an interception or a fumble. Now it could be anything, even something we don’t easily see.
Wisconsin Polls
Silver has Harris in the lead 50.5 to 49.5. One might look at that chart and be scratching their heads.
As I look it that chart I wonder about pollster bias. Rasmussen, for example is so consistently biased, that +2 for Trump might better be read as +1 for Harris.
But Emmerson College and Quinnipiac are little biased.
Today, I asked Silver to put in a link to his pollster ratings to better calculate.
I believe Silver errs in the opposite direction on recency. He goes back too far or back too far with too much weight.
Over time, and that might be weeks, Silver has slowly adjusted.
Chance of Winning Wisconsin
Those odds are well behind where they would be if Silver weighted recent polls more heavily, did not go back as far, or a bit of both as I prefer.
How Much of a Political Lagging Indicator is Nate Silver?
On October 12, I asked How Much of a Political Lagging Indicator is Nate Silver?
The answer, as you can see, is a lot.
This can be viewed as a feature or a bug, but Silver is slow to react.
Historical Momentum
I recall Silver’s 2008 election prediction. He got all 50 states correct and one of his reason was that all the polls were breaking the same way, in other words momentum.
But I got 49 of 50 states correct, in February, before Obama even won the nomination. I got Missouri wrong.
My rationale was that the economy would be so miserable by election time that every conceivable state would break for Obama.
One of my friends commented “What planet are you on to think Obama will win North Carolina?”
Why the Momentum Now?
To repeat my comment above “momentum usually does not change unless there is an event. In football that might be an interception or a fumble. Now it could be anything, even something we don’t easily see.”
That something most economists don’t see is the economy. For 67 percent of the nation (the asset holders and the home owners), the economy (the stock market) has been good to very good, offsetting inflation.
For the renters and struggling homeowners fed up with property insurance, food, and other inflation, the economy borders on miserable.
Who is that? Young voters, blacks, and those without a college education.
You can see that in the polls.
Harris is still ahead in those groups, but in percentage point gains and losses, Trump has made historic inroads.
I propose the remaining undecided voters are breaking as I suggested in February.
I repeated that message in April with People Who Rent Will Decide the 2024 Presidential Election and again on June 19 in Why Angry Renters Will Decide the Election, Take II
Economists say wages are now rising faster than the CPI. That’s not true for those who rent or wish to buy a house.
Trump fell way behind after a disastrous debate with Harris. That momentum ended a month ago.
People are again asking “Am I better off than 4 years ago?”
If you own stocks or refinanced your house at 3.0 percent, you likely are better off. And that’s a big majority. But that’s not who will decide the election. And it is a big part of why Harris is struggling.
Trump, not Harris is the candidate of change.
As a single homeowner with a college degree and stock plan as part of my retirement, I am struggling as much as anyone. Owning a home and doing well with stocks is relevant when either of the two are sold and monetary gains are realized. Until then, we’re just as fed up with inflation as anyone else. Yes, I have a home worth almost double what I paid in 2021, but I’m not selling it, so it doesn’t help me NOW.
Trump Bashes Lincoln: If I Was President The Civil War Would’ve Never Happened
blah blah blah blah
If only the dead could speak. My guess is they would like to have had their life. 500,000 dead Americans in that tragedy.
Silver seems biased to me, maybe unable to let go of earlier predictions.
imo Harris got a honeymoon bc of relief Biden was out. But then people began comparing her to trump, and she was unable to drop any of Biden;s policies bc her donors like them all. Of course not a word of how she might make anything better for workers, certainly not stopping any wars and focusing on us bc, again, it would annoy donors.
so now people are focusing on her and remembering why she didn’t win a single delegate in 2020. What will stop trump’s big mo? Certainly not more Harris softball interviews. Or more help for Ukraine. Or more telling everybody how everything is wonderful.
another big mo is ethnics walking/running away from useless dems, and this has been going on for for years. Why would Harris stop that given how many of them she jailed ?
dems are panicking, I assume bc their internal polls aren’t as biased for her as most msm polls. Emerson and atlas/intel were fairly accurate in 2020, they’re the only ones I look at, and swings look pretty much gone, except MN which was never that anyway.
even the pop vote looks vulnerable if msm polling is as off as in past years.
National polling is always off because California and New York distort the numbers.
I want to say it loudly: people could care less about Ukraine or Gaza!
We care about:
-economy
-inflation
-crime
-southern border stampede ( 15 millions immigrants granted “special entitlements” with voting cards too-see State of Florida law suit against DOH just for that.
-rising houses cost
-rising healthcare cost
etc, etc
Apparently, Sofia Patel of the British Labor Party, has 100 current and former staff members coming to the U.S. to campaign for Kamala Harris in Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Virginia.
This is foreign election interference.
If Trump could only get some Russians or North Koreans to go knocking door-to-door for him!
Allan Lichtman -who was right in 9 out of 10 last elections- by using his 13 keys is predicting Kamala wins!
Didn’t he say thr economy was strong? US household debt up savings down. Home affordability worst in 40 years. Food affordability worst in 30 years. People working multiple jobs up. Car loan delinquencies worst ever for low income people. More people living paycheck to paycheck. Food bank donations down, lines up. 401K hardship withdrawals up.
He seems to be disconnected from the reality of many Americans.
Economy doing good here in the SF Bay Area. Muslims made an economic mess of Gaza. Likely doing the same in MI.
When you have thousands of punters, that one of them (most likely many more) happened to get 9 out of 10 random binary bets correct, doesn’t, in any way at all, vindicate any “system” for picking randoms.
A “system” getting every single election since Washington correct, may have been closer to raising eyebrows. If it also included getting every house and senate race since then correct…; then the underlying randomness presumption may start to look shaky.
Yes you are correct.
I would like this guy to include in his 13 keys the following:
-democrats ability to cheat voting ( this is the major one)
-immigrants stampede with no relief in sight.
-soring housing cost
-soring groceries cost
-soring healthcare cost
-soring crimes
etc. etc
https://www.naturalnews.com/2024-10-16-usps-trucks-counterfeit-ballots-election-2020-lawsuit.html
Don’t underestimate:
a) the Democrats and their mass-media brain-washing machine
b) Trump’s ability to F’ it up.
It ain’t over until Karamela accepts defeat.
“you should be wary when you hear media talk about “momentum”: that he’s gained ground over the past two weeks does not necessarily imply that he’ll continue to do so.”
Trump absolutely has the momentum, and it’s completely biased for Silver to downplay its importance going into the final stretch. Again, it clearly shows his Comrade Kamala leaning.
Trump & Vance are not going to do anything to ruin their momentum. From here on out, it’s just campaigning and doing friendly interviews.
Look for Trump to do a JRE interview sometime in the last 5 days.
And as I’ve said for months now, The System is going to do everything it can to steal the election from Trump. There’s a real possibility, despite all of the momentum Trump is building, that we’re going to wake up the next morning to see his lead evaporate into an order of magnitude WTF moment???
If my grandfather would start behaving like Trump at his campaign events, I would consider calling an ambulance. You never know what happens next.
Democrats have been very coy about their efforts such as paying AntiFa and Act Blue activists to canvas for mail in ballots and register people to vote. Remember how all those votes came in for Biden late on election night such as in Georgia and Wisconsin ?
But just going by polling from Real Clear Politics, Harris is not faring as well as Biden and Clinton did within a 3 weeks of the election. We’ll see how this ends up.
Nate has never played Sports, if He doesn’t believe in “Momentum” He also doesn’t have a clue about the way Energy works in the human body, from within building up, and then exploding outwards. Not always in a positive way perhaps, but that’s not the point. It takes two to dance to get the floor filled up, but truly only “One to Dance” and you Need “One to Join In” and then the floor is full, and that’s what’s called Momentum…
Harris was done before the Fox interview was over. She has since rushed to fix things, therefore damaging her reputation and record even further. Now there is literally no time to fix the mess, and besides, You Can’t “Unsee It” Once it’s “Been Seen” What a literal “Train Wreck”
I see more and more negative tactics, lies, distortions etc. over the remaining time left. At this point, like Trumps Team has been doing, it’s best to let Her and the Democrats destroy themselves, all by themselves. Plus it’s fun to watch at times…
The script was –
Trump was supposed to be dead on 7/13.
Haley and Pompeo ticket named the following week.
Hilldog and Illinois Fats nominated a month later.
Crooks’ phone records lead to Iran.
False flag Iranian nuke incident in Middle East.
U.S. (Blinken, Sullivan, Speaker Johnson) declares war on Iran.
Yup. Deep State all the way. BTW, William Colby didn’t just decide to leave his half-eaten dinner and go canoeing in the dark. If Pompeo ever grew a conscience and gave any hint that me might spill the beans, he would have a canoe accident, too.
To quote Colby:
“What you have to understand, John, is sometimes there are forces and events too big, too powerful, with so much at stake for other people or institutions, that you cannot do anything about them, no matter how evil or wrong they are and no matter how dedicated or sincere you are or how much evidence you have. This is simply one of the hard facts of life you have to face.”
Former CIA Director William Colby to Senator John Camp
Harris is humorless and unlikable except to people who are themselves or are used to being around shrews of that type. She is mediocrity personified in living ‘color ‘
You tell yourself whatever you need to to make yourself feel better about voting for the likes of Donald Trump
Rob, do you think Kamala is a good representation of what the Democratic party wants from a presidential candidate?
does what she’s told by goldman and blackrock. adopts cheney foreign policy. she’s a perfect 2024 democrat. maybe they’ll wake up soon and stand for something again.
Rob is not worth your breath (or typing in this case)
He had me at pussy-grabbing.
He never actually said what the media said about him. Go read the complete unabridged transcript and you’ll see that Trump was complaining about a certain class of sexually-aggressive women grabbing his hand and sticking it on their privates. He wasn’t grabbing he was being grabbed.
If men did that they’d be sued for sexual harassment…
If we have learned anything at all in the past 8 years it is this: we cannot trust Anything in Any media outlet without checking the Original Source.
I checked every major story in 2016 and they were all basically false. Russia-Russia-Russia in 2017 was the same. In 2020 there was another crop, but I quit looking once we had Hunter’s Laptop. Now I ignore the media stories altogether and just go to the raw video or full transcript.
Which reminds me, CBS should be Bud-Lighted over the interview editing fraud…
It doesn’t help that the Democrat Nominees for President, talk nearly identical to the MSM.
I understand that the MSM is an arm of the Democrat Party, and therefore I expect the MSM to do the Parroting. What I don’t expect, is for the President to Speak & Behave identical to the MSM.
Are we electing the MSM to “Operate Our Country” by using Narratives & Talking Points, OR are we Electing A President to “Run Our Country” by using Intelligence and Data to steer our way forward, to “Prevent The Mistakes” of the Past?
So you got MSM BS withHarris / Biden
Or
Fix this mess Trump without the MSM BS
The legacy media in general are in the process of being Bud Lighted. It is simply taking more time, the reason being that there are plenty of alternatives to Bud Light, but the rise of alternatives to the legacy media is a slower process. But it’s happening as a consequence of the media’s ongoing self-destructive of the trust on which it rests.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/651977/americans-trust-media-remains-trend-low.aspx
The alternatives are, in aggregate, worse because they are even more partisan and less trustworthy than what they are replacing. This will become increasingly apparent, and as it continues, the media will reconstitute itself and return. But it will take as much time as their destruction has, with much chaos along the way.
If I can call out and admit Trump’s flaws as a Trump supporter why does the left have such a hard time admitting to seeing what’s right in front of them? BTW I don’t need to ‘make myself feel better’ about voting for Trump. I have weighed the factors and the decision is clear as is my conscience with respect to choosing between the two.
Strongly agree! Last week, I had a long conversation with a guy in a MAGA hat, in which I told him that I will be casting my third straight write-in vote for president because I can’t stomach either Trump’s manifest character flaws or Democratic policies and character flaws.
He admitted straightforwardly that Trump is an a-hole, but will vote for him anyway because he cannot stomach the Democrats. I have had similar discussions with Harris supporters and Democrats in general, and they go all epileptic-in-the-swimming pool at any criticism of their candidates or party.
It is far easier for me to respect the guy in the MAGA hat who is doing what voters have always done, which is to vote for the lesser evil. It’s very hard for me to respect the see-no-evil liberals, who simultaneously argue that conservatives are stupid and unable to engage in critical thinking while not doing so themselves.
I’m hedging Trump by buying gold. It works for Kamala, too.
Agreed! But she is NOT Trump and that is her advantage.
What advantage? Kamala is so stupid she makes Trump look like a super genius. He is not a genius, but he has common sense, a quality which liberals lack entirely.
Spot On!
Polling assumed that ALL voting takes place on a signal day, that people are paying attention to the constant media election horserace and that their votes can potentially be changed.
That doesn’t happen any longer. Large parts of the country will have voted prior to election day and once there choice in the past was made, the polls are meaningless for their votes.
Perhaps pollsters should only count those who claim to be voters but haven’t voted yet when they conduct their polls?
I wager you, Silver, et al are not taking this reality into account.
Wekk by that swtandard, Kamala is going to lose, I can’t see any enthusiasm for her- understandable really, who likes people who are dumb as dirt. I have rocks in my backyard that are smarter than Kamala, a fact on full display whenever she tried to do an iinterview, and failed. If she took an IQ test, she’d fail.
I am SO looking for Harris to win, just so I can rub all your faces in all the doo-doo you all have been spewing. It will be rewarding to watch all your huffing and puffing, foot stomping, breath holding, hair pulling, conspiracy accusations and general disaffection with the coming 4 years. [rotflol]
I think you mean “polling assumes that democrats won’t cheat”. Face it, its their only remaining strategy. Of course, no one has to tell you this. What’s despicable is that democrats don’t care.
All you vampires better get your abortions while you can. It’s never too early to kill your own children.
Worry not, Tim. In a generation or two, the extreme progressives will go the way of the Shakers.
Yes, they keep taking the death shot. Within 5 or 10 years, 10-20% of them will be gone
Trump is an agent of self serving chaos. He is lawless and the former CJCS, his former chief of staff and the former SecDef have all stated he is unfit. To choose Trump is to state that these men, whom have lived their lives serving our nation, are wrong about him.
Yeah, we’ll see who is “lawless” when Trump wins in a landslide, you ape.
Ape? Such compelling language and a commanding rebuttal. Thank you, citizen.
My neighbor across the street has no possible deep state connection. She worked for Harris in California. She is liberal to the core. She tells me that Harris is not worthy of the presidency. In fact, she asserts that Harris was not capable in her role in the California DOJ. What’s a voter to do?
Don’t vote, then. But don’t vote for the man demonstrably does not know, care or give care for our country.
Trump does care about the country.
What is the best argument for Kamala’s qualifications, leadership successes and judgement?
ha ha ha, some Deep State cretins are who you rely on ?
Deep State civil servants including military elites all suffer from deep conflicts of interest.
Military rank & file troops ARE serving nation (except for those who Walz away from deployments) but current leadership often promoted not for national service, but rather loyalty to defense contractors – often corrupted. Major loss in military effectiveness!
Also note that Current SecDef demonstrably not serving the nation. Lots of media coverage. Was in hospital AWOL without informing anyone, for instance. Biden far worse than Trump in military and national security issues (why are Ukraine, Houthis and Israel totally out of control??) … and Harris even less qualified than Biden.
50 intelligence officials stated that the Hunter laptop had all the earmarks of Russian intelligence. Bobolinsky had already proven that the laptop was the real McCoy.
We have a corrupt government.
What about the 52 Intelligence heads who declared the Hunter Biden Laptop was Russian disinformation? You claim they were serving their nation too?
Unfortunately both Trump and Harris are reckless, irresponsible and careless when it comes to the nations finances! It is absolutely pathetic one of these 2 will be the next President !
Oh NO!!!11! Peace & prosperity! Whatever shall we do?!?
Silver and polling in general are obsolete and out of touch. I trust betting markets way more.
Typically gamblers lose. There is a reason odds makers know more than than those who gamble or bet.
Silver is a mediocre political analyst, and his averages are in the meh category, but his pollster rankings a quite useful.
Kamala’s been fumbling ever since they handed her the nomination.
Harris was a poor choice that was heavily influenced by the incompetent Biden, his political hatchet people and the vocal black segment of the Dem party.
As I have stated repeatedly, her only saving grace is that SHE IS NOT TRUMP and that is what will carry the election for her.
What appears to be the case is that despite how voters feel about either candidate, the economy has been so bad for the last several years that putting Kalamata in this spot frees the Dems from having to deal with her again. She’s a failure of their making.
You should move to the SF Bay Area. The economy is great here! New cars all over the place, few people selling houses, already high apt rents increasing a bit, indicating people have excess money.
Yeah, just get the app that shows the feces on the streets, and you ‘ll be fine.
All cleaned up now after that Supreme Court ruling gave politicians the ability to fight back against the bleeding heart do-gooders who would institute a new lawsuit whenever a homeless, drug addict was arrested.
I haven’t ben to SF lately but have heard that most of the tents and homeless lining the streets have been removed. Looking forward to taking a ride up there and checking it out.
Condo prices starting to crash, because totally unaffordable, tech companies cutting jobs, state county and local governments unable to balance budgets despite years of record revenues…
Relatively few condos here compared to houses.
Condos lead the overall housing market. Look at data from past housing downturns.
She fumbled the DA job, AG job, senatorial job and obviously the VP job, despite incredibly low expectations.
Trump is a freaking convicted and still indicted CRIMINAL. He is a cheat, a thief and was an incompetent President in his first term. Stop trying to normalize a stone cold LOSER.
Kangaroo court is not legitimate.
You’re mixing up the USA with Russia and China, among many others in the world.
either way D or R the next four years are not going to be good ones
Agreed. The winner inherits a steaming pile.
But it will be a lot worse if Harris wins.
I appreciate Shamalamdingdong’s honesty when asked what she would do differently than oatmeal brain. “Nothing comes to mind” is what she replied with. Things are so bad she’s now helping produce and script tv ads for Trump.
So much momentum…
Trump might prematurely declare victory…
again.
Same shit..
second show…
a candidate incapable of change.
“It’s deja vu all over again.” —Yogi Berra
Trump’s chances of winning are far better than the chances of keeping his key election promises.
But then, who else have you got?
Americans are finally getting to hear from Kamala. It seems our Vice President is an empty pantsuit.
She is the epitome of an affirmative action baby. Handed the keys despite zero accomplishments as a CA senator other than a) flailing at Trump and b) preening as a woketard spirit whisperer.
…”woketard spirit whisperer…” EVERY DAY A NEW WONDERFUL LINE which encapsulates the weird times in which we live. THANK YOU!
Ask her any question and you get a dumb answer…If you had a child in school and you asked them questions and each answer was a dumb reply, you would probably start thinking your child might be dumb, or a serial liar.
Not true. If you look closely, there’s probably other DNA in there other than hers.
Don’t discount the voting power of the Taylor Swiftee’s, the clueless Gen-Z/Millennials and woman upset witht he Republican’s active attempts to ban abortion..
I was watching something on the TV the other day where it was mentioned that 25% of Gen-Z job applicants bring one or both parents to the interview with them!
One way or the other the Gen-zers are going to get a dose of reality in their face before too long
And you believed that 25% stat?
Do you have a different stat?
I don’t need one – the burden of proof is on you. “Something on TV the other day” isn’t a credible source for a preposterous stat
Shows you just how dumb they are.
But dumb people are still allowed to vote.
You don’t need polls to tell you Trump has momentum behind him.
Harris appearing on Fox tells you all you need to know. Her camp is panicking.
And she played games there, arriving very late to the interview.
The party with 150+ year history of (and experience in) stealing elections hasn’t suddenly grown a conscience. Just sayin’.
C’mon, man. They only took us into WWI, WWII, Korea, Vietnam, dropped nukes on Japan twice in one week, rounded up Japanese Americans for the crime of being Japanese, To say nothing of defending chattel slavery. Be a proud democrap!
I always point this out to my democrat friends. The democrats have a bloody warmongering history but now there are neo-cons in both parties, so history is less compelling.
Trump is winning. DEEP STATE is losing.
We will see the real fight from now on.
I think the late breaking undecideds are breaking for Trump in a major way. It won’t be anything close to Reagan’s 1984 victory (18% margin, 49 states) or Clinton’s in 1996 (8.5% margin in a three-way race, 31 states) but I won’t be surprised if the popular vote is close to Obama’s 4% and 26 states in 2012.
I tend toward conservatism when looking at the numbers, but I do think Trump will win by at least 1% and probably more and take all 7 battlegrounds, giving him 312-226 in the EC and relegating the D whining about the electoral college to the dustbin. If Trump wasn’t such an unhinged jerk, he could have walked away with it, but it’s still going to be a decisive victory, followed by left-wing rioting in several cities and again in D.C. on inauguration day.
The media other than Fox are pimping hard for Harris, but if anything that will only help Trump. The media have spent the last two decades throwing away the foundation of their influence, public trust. There’s a reason why both candidates have been talking on podcasts, and that’s why.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/651977/americans-trust-media-remains-trend-low.aspx
While I’m hoping for Trump and think he has the inside track, the idea of winning the popular vote doesn’t make sense, nor does it matter.
California is going to vote something like 66-33 for Harris which will skew the popular vote because the population is so large. Hillary talked endlessly about winning the popular vote in 2016 but the truth is it was skewed by California which Trump didn’t care about since he never had any reasonable chance there.
Worrying about the popular vote is like worrying about who scores the most runs in a 7 game series. What matters is winning 4 games even if they are all 1-0 and you lose the other 3 by a 10-1 score.
We shall see, but it’s looking like he will win both the popular vote and the EC
Kamala’s campaign is circling the drain.
She is the “Springtime for Hitler” of presidential candidates.
Opposite of “Springtime for Hitler”. Springtime for Hitler started out as a bomb, and ened up as a smash hit. With “The View” and other shows of that ilk pushing Kamala like they have a fake Rolex watch to sell, a large number of empty headed viewers fell in line — at first. Now they realize Kamala is much shadier than Trump, and she’s running the country into the ground, to boot. (No pun intended)
She may be fugly, but she sure is a whore!
I doubt very much that any of the “independent” polling can possibly adjust for the fact that there are more female than male registered voters, that in most swing states there are only a handful of areas (counties) that will determine the winner in those states, and the fact that, for example, in PA there are 340,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans. These nuances are important and it is doubtful they are adjusted for.
They also don’t pick up on the increased voter registration for the Republican Party in PA. Republicans have increased their numbers by more than 100,000. The overall Democrat spread has decreased to less than 3% due to the increased voter registration for the Republican Party in PA. As we all know, PA is a toss-up.
Donald has the momo eh?
Well internal polling is interesting for him. And I think there is a lot to be happy about there.
As for the woman she is in trouble hugely.
Polling is biased and used for fund raising … need to keep the horserace close — never too far ahead/behind.
Trump killed it at Al Smith Dinner yesterday. Saw highlights on X for lunch today.
Although libs would call his performance something …maybe crass, retarded, poor-taste, mean-spirited,… — let us know in comments.
Chuckie (ranking Dem of the night) sat to his left and took it like a
manperson.Kamala phoned-it-in via teleprompter.
yes indeed…..One of his best lines,(pointing to Eric Adams, NYC Mayor, Eric told me I cant make a long speech as they are renting out the room to a busload of illegal aliens from Texas……………..LMFAO………………..BTW, Michael Bloomberg, did not smile once. Not once and I do not think he clapped like almost all did at the end. He was a great mayor for NYC, but he acted like a complete asshole in the video
Even when the Cardinal was asking him to top off the $10M … why didn’t he just pull out his wallet and smile? It’s ok to hate Trump; but not Cardinal.
Plus the Church is funding many migrant passages.
He’s 82 y/o … at least still vertical.
Yes, you are correct on the Catholic Church funding this. Another reason why I am no longer a catholic
Maybe chuckie can play woman’s sports after his failed bid to become the first female president 😉 😉 😉
Chuckie looked like he was suffering from a bad case of hemorrhoids the whole time Trump was at the podium.
Trump apparently decided to hedge his bets…
on the off-chance his performance received poor reviews:
Trump says ‘people from Fox’ helped him write Al Smith dinner speech. The network denies it | CNN Business
But if enough people say it was great…
we should soon hear him proclaim he personally weaved all of it..
Smart people hang up on pollsters. That leaves Dimocrats.
Polling is not credible right now. Some better methodology is badly needed. Regardless of who you’re personally pulling for? Too many polls created to affect averages. IMO
The place to look at the polls and averages is Real Clear Politics. In doing so, you need to add 2.7% to Trump’s average, reflecting his outperformance of 2.5% in ’16 and 2.9% in ’20. As I write this comment, the RCP average is +1.4% for Harris, which is one-third lower than her unadjusted RCP lead only two weeks ago.
The +1.4% for Harris in the unadjusted RCP average compares with Clinton at +7.1% at this point in ’16 and Biden at +8.9% at this point in ’20.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
In any individual stories based on polls, check Nate Silver’s pollster ratings for the partisan bias. Past that, state-level polls have to be regarded with skepticism, because the sample sizes are not large enough for them to be reliable.
I see that the betting markets have turned toward Trump, and not just Polymarket, which the pro-Harris media are claiming has been inflated by a single “whale,” without mentioning the other 7 betting sites whose numbers match. There is no reliable data whatsoever, at least that I could find, regarding the predictive value of the betting markets.
However you slice it, Trump is finishing strong, and he gets stronger almost every day. This accounts for the growing panic among the Democrats. Even the pro-Harris media are “reporting” this through clenched teeth. Iron Law of the Media, to quote Bob Dylan’s Positively 4th Street: “You just want to be on the side that’s winning.” The NYT, WaPo, et. al, are — pun intended — positively shitting bricks right now, and by November 5th those bricks will be cinder blocks.
If you think you’re standing firm, be careful not to fall.
I’d say remove Rasmussen and Trafalgar completely from RCP and you have a point.
Okey dokey, then let’s go through all the polls in the RCP average ranked by Nate Silver. For starters, Trafalgar is not included, so your mention is irrelevant. Nice strawman there.
Emerson is somewhat pro-D. Fox News uses Beacon/Shaw, which is strongly pro-D. Reuters uses IPSOS, which is strongly pro-D. Harvard being slightly pro-D, but their latest poll is a blend of three organizations, so it’s impossible to really say.
Morning Consult is the 6th most biased poll out of the roughly 400 that Silver ranks, and is very strongly pro-D. It is significantly more biased than your irrelevant strawman, Trafalgar (which, again is not part of the RCP average) and is much more biased than Rasmussen
TIPP Insights is pro-R. Reuters/Ipsos uses Ipsos, which is very pro-D: more so than Rasmussen is pro-R, for example. . HarrisX is not ranked. CBS and Yahoo both use YouGov, which is pro-D. Marist is somewhat pro-D. NBC News is not ranked. Marquette is somewhat pro-D.
Bottom line: You are cherry picking. Bad idea. At least tell yourself the truth.
We will see if the people want to elect someone too old, tired, and infirm to even show up for interviews any longer. Wait, I’m not talking about Joe Biden? Well well well.