Trump will fail to increase exports with trade wars and tariffs. Currency wars will result. 
On a trade-weighted basis, the US dollar is the strongest since the early- to mid-1980s.
That’s because the US has the strongest economy in the world and high interest rates to too.
Tariffs will act to strengthen the US dollar. But to increase exports, Trump needs a weak dollar.
Boatload of Contradictions
I have discussed this before, but Trump’s policies are a boatload of contradictions.
Balancing the fiscal deficit would strengthen the dollar. Tariffs would strengthen the dollar and cause a rise in inflation.
Bigger fiscal deficits would weaken the dollar aiding exports, but cause a rise in inflation.
Is Trump a Free Marketer in Disguise?
That’s the amusing October 14, claim made by Omkar Godbole on Yahoo!Finance Trump’s New Administration Would Support Strong Dollar
- A potential Trump administration is unlikely to devalue the dollar deliberately, Trump’s go-to man on economics Scott Bessent told Financial Times.
- Trump’s inflationary-imports tariffs plan will be eventually watered down, Bessent added.
[Mish Note: Since then, Trump nominated Bessent for US Treasury secretary.]
A new U.S. government potentially headed by Donald Trump would support a strong dollar in line with the U.S.’ multi-decade policy.
“The reserve currency can go up and down based on the market. I believe that if you have good economic policies, you’re naturally going to have a strong dollar,” Bessent added, cautioning he is not speaking for Trump.
Bessent also defended Trump’s intention to impose across-the-board inflationary tariffs of up to 20% on all imported goods, saying these “extreme positions” will be eventually watered down during discussions with trading partners.
“My general view is that at the end of the day, he’s a free trader,” Bessent told FT. “It’s escalate to de-escalate.”
ECB Governors Back More Rate cuts
Reuters reports ECB Governors Back More Rate Cuts if Inflation Settles at Goal
Four European Central Bank policymakers backed further interest rate cuts on Friday provided that inflation settles at the ECB’s 2% goal as expected.
The euro zone’s central bank cut interest rates for the fourth time this year on Thursday and kept the door open to more easing, although some analysts felt President Christine Lagarde’s signal in that direction was less clear than they had hoped for.The ECB lowered the rate it pays on banks’ reserves by 25 basis points to 3.0% on Thursday and investors expect at least another 100 basis points worth of cuts by June.
Fed vs ECB Rate Cuts
In isolation, rate cuts weaken currencies.
In this case we have dueling cuts by the ECB, the Fed, and China. However, US growth is much stronger and inflation is higher. And China is in or near outright price deflation.
The combined impact of the above is a stronger dollar, not at all synonymous with rising US exports.
What About Currency Intervention?
The lead chart notes two instances of currency intervention, the Plaza Accord and the Louvre Accord.
The first was an agreement to weaken the US dollars and the second an agreement to strengthen the dollar.
Both failed.
Plaza Accord
The Plaza Accord was a joint agreement signed on September 22, 1985, at the Plaza Hotel in New York City, between France, West Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States, to depreciate the U.S. dollar in relation to the French franc, the German Deutsche Mark, the Japanese yen and the British pound sterling by intervening in currency markets. The U.S. dollar depreciated significantly from the time of the agreement until it was replaced by the Louvre Accord in 1987. Some commentators believe the Plaza Accord contributed to the Japanese asset price bubble of the late 1980s.
Background
From 1980 to 1985, the dollar had appreciated by about 50% against the Japanese yen, Deutsche Mark, French franc, and British pound, the currencies of the next four biggest economies at the time. In March 1985, just before the G7, the dollar reached its highest valuation ever against the British pound, a valuation which would remain untopped for over 30 years. This caused considerable difficulties for the American industry, but at first, their lobbying was largely ignored by the government. The financial sector was able to profit from the rising dollar, and a depreciation would have run counter to the Reagan administration’s plans for bringing down inflation. A broad alliance of manufacturers, service providers, and farmers responded by running an increasingly high-profile campaign asking for protection against foreign competition. Major players included grain exporters, the U.S. automotive industry, heavy American manufacturers like Caterpillar Inc., as well as high-tech companies including IBM and Motorola. By 1985, their campaign had acquired sufficient traction for Congress to begin considering passing protectionist laws. The negative prospect of trade restrictions spurred the White House to begin the negotiations that led to the Plaza Accord.
The devaluation was justified to reduce the U.S. current account deficit, which had reached 3.5% of the GDP, and to help the U.S. economy to emerge from a serious recession that began in the early 1980s. The U.S. Federal Reserve System under Paul Volcker had halted the stagflation crisis of the 1970s by raising interest rates. The increased interest rate sufficiently controlled domestic monetary policy and staved off inflation.
However, a strong dollar is a double edged sword, inducing the Triffin dilemma which, on the one hand, gave more spending power to domestic consumers, companies, and to the US government, and on the other hand, hampered US exports until the value of the dollar re-equilibrated.
Trade Deficit
While for the first two years, the US deficit only worsened, it then began to turn around as the elasticities had risen enough that the quantity effects began to outweigh the valuation effect. The devaluation made U.S. exports cheaper to purchase for its trading partners, which in turn allegedly meant that other countries would buy more American-made goods and services. The Plaza Accord failed to help reduce the U.S.–Japan trade deficit, but it did reduce the U.S. deficit with other countries by making U.S. exports more competitive.
Objective Failure
The Plaza Accord was successful in reducing the U.S. trade deficit with Western European nations, but largely failed to fulfill its primary objective of alleviating the trade deficit with Japan. This deficit was due to structural conditions that were insensitive to monetary policy, specifically trade conditions. The manufactured goods of the United States became more competitive in the exports market, though were still largely unable to succeed in the Japanese domestic market due to Japan’s structural restrictions on imports. The Louvre Accord was signed in 1987 to halt the continuing decline of the U.S. dollar.
Louvre Accord
The Louvre Accord was an agreement, signed on February 22, 1987, in Paris, that aimed to stabilize international currency markets and halt the continued decline of the US dollar after 1985 following the Plaza Accord.
Currency Interventions Don’t Work
The lead chart shows that the dollar had already started to fall by the time the Plaza Accord agreement was made (yellow highlights). The accord did not reverse any trends although perhaps it goosed the weakening that already started. And it failed totally on the primary mission vs the Yen.
Then the dollar continued to decline after the Louvre Accord tried to halt the decline (light orange highlights). So the Louvre Accord did not work either.
Then for decades, Japan tried to depreciate the Yen with currency interventions and failed. Now Japan is struggling to strengthen the Yen, also with interventions.
Finally, please recall the Bank of England vs George Soros. So don’t tell me these forex currency interventions work.
Debt Write Downs
Facing deflation, China’s best bet would be to allow more bankruptcies and write down debt. However, China is highly unlikely to do so because the state owned enterprises would take a hard hit.
Someone has to pay a price and China may end up doing what Japan did, stretching the problem out for decades in a foolish attempt to avoid anyone paying a price.
Meanwhile, China is still digging a hole with unproductive debt, just as Japan did.
Recall that Fed Chair Ben Bernanke advised Japan to write down debt to escape deflation but Japan didn’t. As is typical with monetary hypocrites, Bernanke failed to do so at our turn in the Great Recession.
Instead, Bernanke embarked on massive QE that ultimately froze the US housing market when Jerome Powell continued Bernanke’s mistake during the Covid pandemic.
Reserve Currency Curse
There is no mix of tariffs and other policies that would shrink the trade deficit without causing other problems elsewhere.
And Trump has threatened 100 percent tariffs on any country that tries to end US dollar reserve currency status.
However, Trump’s goals are so conflicting that he simultaneously needs a stronger dollar to fight inflation, but a weaker one to increase exports.
This is the reserve currency curse, exacerbated in 1971 when Nixon ended dollar redeemability for gold.
Should We Take Trump Seriously or Literally on Huge Tariff Hikes?
On December 15, I asked Should We Take Trump Seriously or Literally on Huge Tariff Hikes?
Companies are mounting a campaign to soften the Trump’s trade threats, but Trump’s team says he is serious.
As long as Trump insists on contradictory actions, I suggest we should neither take Trump seriously nor literally.
If we restrict ourselves to single promises, O.K. Trump will hike tariffs.
But I’ll go with Bessent: “extreme positions will be eventually watered down during discussions with trading partners.”
What About the Fiscal Deficit?
Anyone who thinks Trump will balance the fiscal deficit via tariffs is flat out crazy.
That idea should not to be taken either literally or seriously.
The Bond Market Doesn’t Believe Trump Is Serious About the Deficit, and neither do I.
Finally, the title of this post says “Currency Wars Will Be Next”. More accurately they are underway already.
China is devaluing the yuan in advance of Trump’s tariff hikes. And tariff hikes will further weaken the yuan.
For discussion, please see China’s 10-Year Bond Yield Hits New Record Low on Disappointing Data
The Japanification of China takes another big leap forward. And a huge fight with Trump is coming up.
A Word About DOGE
Question of the Day: Do You Have Any Faith that Sheriff DOGE Will Reduce the Fiscal Deficit?
If you do, you shouldn’t.
I have to laugh at the notion that “Trumps Trade Wars” will fail, as Trump doesn’t have any “Trade Wars” as He is merely a U.S. Citizen. In fact I have seen Zero actual plans for one, No official documentation as of yet, and nothing concrete of anything even remotely in regards to any War, as Trump doesn’t even like War as we all should obviously know.
Many just don’t seem to get and/or understand Trump. Mostly because they don’t pay attention to what’s Real, and what’s Bluster, coming out of his mouth. His way is and always has been the same.
1. Throw out thoughts and ideas, with no regard to what they may mean, or even imply, and await the opposing parties response.
2. They respond “In Kind” with the same sort of illiterate response as his thoughts were.
3. Throw out some additional thoughts, to round out what he was getting to, but still a bit vague.
4. Await more rhetoric, but a bit more heated and off the rails this time, showing their true colors.
5. Come out and say what he was getting at, but we’ll states, thought out with responses in mind, and clarified to make the people who thought they knew or made it up, look like the fools that they are.
6. Await more responses, but more made up, more assumed, and more off the rails. Looking even more delusional.
7. A Job Well Done Trump!!! They are simply “No Match” for You!
Nothing may happen at all, but nobody knows for sure, and that includes Trump! He is a Citizen like you and I. Nothing more, and nothing less. No special powers, no magic, and no crazy ideas.
Just some bluster like we all make, until He “Can Do Something About It” and then you can “Start Paying Attention” to what Trump says, and have a damn good idea, what he will plan to do. Not Until Then!
Do what Trump does, and sit and laugh at the “Clown Show” He is up against. He could sleep walk through this crowd of idiots…
“In this case we have dueling cuts by the ECB, the Fed, and China. However, US growth is much stronger and inflation is higher.”
What inflation?! Credit has been contracting for months! you can’t have inflation without credit expansion! Price rises are not inflation, they are synthetic taxes, like “green taxes” and “foreign aid” and synthetic scarcity like “sanctions on Russia” and “pandemic restrictions”… where is this imaginary inflation coming from when money supply is contracting?!
China is less certain, the CCP appears to be attempting to follow Japan, but they have a different set of domestic problems to manage: demographics and scale; and a different set of tools – authoritarian police state tools. China could implode politically.
I’m not so sure a country highly indebt to foreigners with a closed economy (which is what 60% tariffs will effectively lead to) will lead to a strong currency, notwithstanding the other obvious detrimental economic impacts of this policy. For one it is difficult to see how the currency of a nation with a closed economy can continue to function as the world’s reserve currency.
Trump is not a free trader, period. Anyone who wants the Fed to set rates, especially manipulate rates lower with money printing is the farthest thing from a free trader. Bessent is trying to deceive people but those familiar with the matter know he’s full of bull.
As clueless as the Dems are about economics, Trump seems worse. There is much evidence that he is a real estate businessman who has little clue about the actual economy.
Dude, you crack me up. I disagree with some of the things Mish says, but at least he provides very detailed analysis of his opinions.
You on the other hand, are nothing more than Trump Deranged anti-sycophant.
Voodoo Economics is another FUD troll.
“Anyone who thinks Trump will balance the fiscal deficit via tariffs is flat out crazy.”
Wait, are you suggesting Trump himself believes this? I certainly haven’t heard anyone, including Trump, make such a claim. Vance hasn’t made that claim.
Why the extreme assumption?
“Currency Interventions Don’t Work”
Unfortunately, countries institute currency intervention because what they were currently doing, didn’t work permanently, either. It never does. Why isn’t free trade actually free trade? Because someone’s ox is being gored, as they can’t compete without some kind of protection.
Judge the trade gambit by how many corporations move manufacturing to USA for tax, regulatory, energy cost, and labor cost advantages. USA has an excellent economic future. Europe and China are dead meat.
I am more of a free market person, but I believe the alternative to Trump was quite unappealing. It is my hope that he is playing poker with many of the threats. The fact that so many in the nation and around the world are petrified of his assuming power suggests that they fear his prowess. I can only hope that it is primarily posturing to attain a positive outcome. He does like to negotiate from power and fear created power
Not threats, as He has no power at the moment to make any threats. Some bluster to be sure, but He does that 24/7.
He is just yapping, and some are reacting in kind. Many to avoid any issues, as they know they are wrong in what they are doing. Just getting out in front of it, which is smart on their part.
When he begins to negotiate, there will be very few options for his opponents. He will state what needs to be done, and what he would like to have done. Needs are not up for negotiations and he will react in kind if needed. Wants are negotiable and with things back to them as well.
But I’ll go with Bessent: “extreme positions will be eventually watered down during discussions with trading partners.”
Based on all the ink you have spilled including today’s headline, you are clearly not going with Bessent. Bessent is saying what I have been saying – Trump is just negotiating, as our president should.
Mad bomber tactics – Nixon to get out of Vietnam, Trump to try and incentivize inbound intl real invt in US (avoid tariffs via US production owned by foreigners).
“Anyone who thinks Trump will balance the fiscal deficit via tariffs is flat out crazy.”
Too many third rails to think the fiscal deficit is going to get balanced at all. That is the reality of the situation. Obama said that the debt was not a problem in the short and medium term. Seems we’re past that now. Powell says he is concerned about the fiscal, but continues to accommodate government over spending. Civil unrest is a serious concern of the government in terms of solving the problem. Suddenly, governments have “fallen” in Europe. Trudeau is on the outs in Canada. In Jeffrey Sachs interview with Tucker, he said that the nuclear doomsday clock is at 90 seconds to midnight. 89, 87, 86…?
“Biden DID pardon 5 child killers and 32 mass murderers.
How is it that Joe Biden was deemed too senile to be charged for stealing classified documents, but is somehow fit to issue pardons and commute sentences?”
Politics? Just like Milley and many others claimed Trump was Hitler & a national security risk, then Trump won and everyone is eating lots of crow. Nobody wants to go to jail.
Perhaps the pardons can be overturned on the grounds of Biden’s own testimony or other testimony of him being mentally unfit to stand trial or make any decisions.
Trading volume in the Dollar is 1/12th the volume it was back on 9/26/22 which means Dollar trade transactions are slowly disappearing. “Emperor has no clothes?”
re: “had halted the stagflation crisis of the 1970s by raising interest rates”
Volcker’s reign is a myth. He instituted reserve requirements against NOW accounts in April 1981 to stop inflation.
12% yield on 30 year Treasury bonds didn’t hurt.
Lot of talky in the post about why something is bound to fail.
There are one of two things going to happen starting January 20.
Either it is all talk from Trump and he has no idea what is going on or
There are a whole lot of very intelligence people signing onto Trumps MAGA movement who have very deliberate ideas about how to straighten out the Calamity they are about to inherit from a Failed Biden Regime.
My Bet is going to be on the latter assessment. Very good evidence that Washington Deep State is freaking out over what Trump is positioning the Presidency to accomplish, says there is much merit to where he intends to go.
None of what I said has anything to do with the deep state.
Both what you said and I said can be true or false.
It all has to do with Deep State and the entrenched Bureaucratic Police state being imposed from Washington DC
This Nation is intentionally being dismantled just as China underwent its cultural revolution. I am old enough to have lived through those times and have seen My Country being destroyed from within in the same manner.
The complete depravity of consequences from Political class policy was fully evident while watching the video of that Woman burning to death on a Subway in NYC.
“The complete depravity of consequences from Political class policy was fully evident while watching the video of that Woman burning to death on a Subway in NYC.”
I guess you missed history class. The parts from Europeans invading the west, slaughtering people, stealing land and resources, slavery, jim crow, women’s oppression, lynchings, wars are all tolerable but a woman burning in a subway is your depravity limit.
After you go fuck yourself, for the rest of those posters who read this, ask a question. Harris has the thinking capacity of a Goldfish, so what exactly does that word salad she spouted actually mean?
“Unburdened by what has gone before”
This is coming out of the mouth from someone coming from California, specifically San Francisco. Not going to find anything but Left Wing nut jobs there in Politics.
Does not that sound similar to what a Cultural Revolution implies. We are destroying your Heritage so as to implement a new path forward.
More like the “New Yorkers came through again!” quote on the matter by one of the government parasites.
Most of the Saucony running shoes are made in Vietnam.
US International trade is so imbalanced that there will be some pain to rebuild industries critical to national security. It’s better to have the pain that can be managed internally than externally. While not popular, LOWERING the minimum wage would be the best way smooth out re-shoring costs since it does not rely on growing debt in the finance system, and employers will be able to match more people with fewer skills to jobs that require less skills..
Sounds serious. Time for Nate Silver to take a poll on the New York subways. As long as everything is cheap and everyone works cheap, then life is just a bowl of flaming cherries.
Even your own proposed approach to cut the deficit is lame. Most of the taxes will fall on the middle and upper middle classes (beneficiaries of SALT) while leaving rich folks and corporations paying very little. You cannot eliminate taxes on corporation unless you get a promise that the extra profits will go into salaries and not dividends or shares buybacks. We have already seen how tax cuts benefit the rich mostly.
Note that much fraud can be found in the government subsiding Walmart profits since most of its employees qualify for welfare benefits. And how about the money the Pentagon cannot account for?
Why do you never want to recognize that much of the waste and fraud has to do with a corrupt capitalist system? But no, let’s take away benefits for the rest of the folks.
Then it appears you cannot read.
Why is it that the focus is on who is paying more or less taxes, instead of just reducing the size of the government and reducing size of the tax bill for everyone?
It’s not as if every part of the government or public sector has a divine right to exist!
“Trump’s policies are a boatload of
contradictionsbuffoonery.” -fixed!The headlines on drudge are already very telling….
“Republicans Defy MAGA”
“Mass Deportation Plans Thrown in Doubt”
28 days till Trump takes control of all branches of government, take us to the promised land…..no excuses, no whining.
Your own quoted headlines disprove that Trump will be taking control of all branches. Also, isn’t it boring to post the same thing over and over?
The pot calls the kettle black. So you admit that trump and GOP are impotent then? No need to feel shame, no clown(s) going into office will fix any of this, you are on your own. No one is going to save you. The faster you learn that lesson, the better off you will be.
I’ve known that forever. Voters want $3 of government spending for $2 of revenue. Cut the spending and somebody will squeal. Take in more revenue and spending will increase by a 1.5:1 ratio. Democracy contains the seeds of its own destruction.
Well, we do need to have an enjoyable / tolerable / rewarding place to live, right? If society collapses, then I’d say your point is well taken. Until then, it makes sense to support the right politicians that you think are best able to make those three things happen without collapsing the system. That sure as hell wasn’t Biden or Comrade Kamala, and the government can certainly make your life hell no matter how much personal initiative you’ve got.
If we’re in a monarchy then let’s go with Prince Harry, Any idiot can come up with a phony birth certificate these days, no doubt California would oblige. .
1) Something has to be done; the status quo is unacceptable when “Free Trade” agreements are huge giveaways of American manufacturing jobs in the fine print. This point is always censored by regime media who cover for unelected bureaucrats and lobbyists destroying our economy.
2) Maybe legislation and policy that discourages offshore tax havens; repatriate wealth?
3) Hegemonic powers become great through mercantilism.
4) Even small changes can bring about goodness in aggregate
What is this? An advertisement for Jim Rickards’ books?
LOL……did I miss buy gold?
Great article Mish! One of your best!
interesting opinions, but really love the fact this AM, “Biden on Monday announced that he is commuting the sentences of 37 out of 40 prisoners currently sitting on the federal government’s death row”
According to Goehring & Rozencwajg LLC, a fundamental research firm specializing in contrarian natural resource investments, U.S. shale output is in the early innings of a protracted decline, with depletion, not market dynamics or regulatory overreach, the chief culprit.
The analysts had previously predicted that the explosive production growth triggered by the U.S. shale revolution would flatline in late 2024 or early 2025. However, the reality could be worse: According to data by the EIA, shale crude oil production peaked in November 2023, and has declined about 2% since then while shale dry gas production peaked that same month and has since slipped by 1% or 1 billion cubic feet per day.
And, it’s about to get worse, with Goehring & Rozencwajg’s model predicting an even steeper decline going forward.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-American-Shale-Patch-Is-All-About-Depletion-Now.html
You have been saying that US shale production would fall off a cliff for two years now. Yet it has been increasing that entire time. The factors that have been restraining more growth have been lower prices for oil and gas, resulting in fewer rigs drilling. If prices went from the current <$70, to $80+, drilling activity would rise. Another factor restraining growth has been a lack of pipelines to take away the oil and gas (particularly the gas). With the recent completion of a new gas pipeline, and several more pipelines under construction, this impediment will be removed. And with the addition of new LNG facilities and more to come, LNG exports are increasing. We just went from 13.4 to over 15 million per day of LNG exports.
Yes, shale production will eventually peak and begin a slow decline. But this is not a 2025 “fall off a cliff” story. It’s a 2027 -2035 slow decline story.
I never said it would fall off of a cliff… however it has now past peak….
We are living on borrowed time – conventional and shale are both past peak now
Yet world oil production keeps rising by 1 million barrels per day per year. And is expected to keep growing by 1 mbpd per year for the next decade. Which is why OPEC has held back production for two years. Too much oil.
World crude oil extraction reached an all-time high of 84.6 million barrels per day in late 2018, and production hasn’t been able to regain that level since then.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2024/09/11/crude-oil-extraction-may-be-well-past-peak/
Figure 1. World monthly crude oil production based on data of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). The straight orange line represents the 24-month average during the period June 2022 through May 2024.
Yet we consumed over 102 million barrels per day in 2023 and over 104 mbpd in 2024. And this number has been increasing every year.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/859133/global-liquid-fuels-consumption-outlook/#:~:text=Worldwide%20consumption%20for%20liquid%20fuels,104.46%20million%20barrels%20per%20day.
Your numbers are just for crude oil and exclude all the other petroleum liquids that make up the total of 104.
And the consumption number is expected to grow by 1 mbpd per year for the rest if this decade.
Oh great – so we are past peak yet we are pumping and burning what’s left faster than ever
And you are celebrating that hahaha
DUH
I don’t get the impression that you understand where oil comes from, what different types there are, how it’s used or refined or what products each type is refined into, nor about technology used to maximise the energy output from it, or who is selling what to whom, or the different costs of finding and extracting, storing and transporting different types of oil in different parts of the world.
Granted, the world is beginning a long period of economic downturn, weighted by the burden of colossal debt to fund unsustainable socialist systems, and unhelpful demographic change, but… it takes a while for all those factors to result in the outcomes you keep breathlessly trying (and failing) to predict.
I don’t get the impression PapaDave knows much more than you either, but at least he bothers to post links to create the impression of knowing more than he actually does.
I admire FastEddy’s honesty in showing how little he knows.
All anyone needs to know is:
World crude oil extraction reached an all-time high of 84.6 million barrels per day in late 2018, and production hasn’t been able to regain that level since then. https://ourfiniteworld.com/2024/09/11/crude-oil-extraction-may-be-well-past-peak/
And this :
Conventional Oil Sources peaked in 2008 and the Shale binge has now spoiled US reserves, top investor warns Financial Times.
Preface. Conventional crude oil production may have already peaked in 2008 at 69.5million barrels per day (mb/d) according to Europe’s International Energy Agency (IEA 2018 p45). The U.S. Energy Information Agency shows global peak crude oil production at a later date in 2018 at 82.9mb/d (EIA 2020) because they included tight oil, oil sands, and deep-sea oil.
Though it will take several years of lower oil production to be sure the peak occurred. Regardless, world production has been on a plateau since 2005.
What’s saved the world from oil decline was unconventional tight “fracked” oil, which accounted for 63% of total U.S. crude oil production in 2019 and 83% of global oil growth from 2009 to 2019. So it’s a big deal if we’ve reached the peak of fracked oil, because that is also the peak of both conventional and unconventional oil and the decline of all oil in the future.
Anyone who cannot understand this … is living in denial. For obvious reasons.
Sounds like a 20 year old Kunstler book.
“Do You Have Any Faith that Sheriff DOGE Will Reduce the Fiscal Deficit?“
Answer of the day: They already did.
I guess for some of us, that title must have appended, “… reduce the fiscal deficit, other than microscopically and marginally and by flashy impulsive last-second half-unsuccessful tweeted gimmick, already building grudges before more important flagship legislation is engaged.” For others of us, that might have been apparent.
What bullshit. They acted in a very minor way to not let it rise as much, just nearly as much.
Q: Did the bill just passed ad to or reduce the deficit?
A: It increased the deficit.
That’s a very narrow view of the situation. Musk saved us from hundreds of billions had the original bill passed (which it was likely to do if not for Musk’s efforts). This is indisputable. We need not get into all the terrible policy changes he saved us from in that bill too. Minor my ass.
“Musk saved us from hundreds of billions had the original bill passed (which it was likely to do if not for Musk’s efforts). This is indisputable.”
Name the specific spending reductions. Ones that were definitively rejected vs. Merely re-routed into other passed bills.
I do think the chaos (while largely impotent on actual net spending reductions) did herald an end to traditional DC uniparty bullshit logrolling – by drawing attention and fury to it.
If that fury can be continually refocused, some decent spending reductions might eventually occur.
But Trump’s attempt to completely remove the debt cap process was terrifying – suggesting simply a different form of looting from the US (instead of increased debt for DC spending, increased debt for further tax cuts.)
The two mafias in DC may have decided it is actually all over for America and the only left to do is to loot the corpse.
Did you read it? Has anyone other than Vivek Ramaswamy?
For starters, just look at the new spending. The CR adds at least 65 cents to every dollar of new spending for every dollar of continued discretionary spending.
72 pages worth of “Pandemic Preparedness and Response” policy; renewal of the much-criticized “Global Engagement Center,” a key player in the federal censorship state; 17 different pieces of Commerce legislation; paving the way for a new football stadium in D.C.; a pay raise for Congressmen & Senators and making them eligible for Federal Employee Health Benefits.
Anyone who thinks this was a minor thing is suffering from TDS.
But honestly no should waste their time reading it. It was designed not to be read. Instead, just put it on a scale and weigh it. If it weighs more than a few ounces on standard stock 8×11, then it needs to be rejected.
That’s a silly answer to a stupid question.
Oh, I forgot the $8 BILLION for emergency relief for surrounding counties of the Francis Scott Key Bridge. The bridge was slated to cost only 2 billion to rebuild.
The politicians taking payoffs from insurance companies is nothing new.
Everyone will rearrange and present the facts to show they are right, even Mish.
everything is going as planned Billionaire tied to shady military ops could be no. 2 Pentagon pick https://responsiblestatecraft.org/stephen-feinberg/
Trump Companies Accused of Tax Evasion in PanamaIn the latest chapter in ongoing litigation, the private equity fund that bought what used to be called the Trump Ocean Club claims the Trump entities pocketed money that should have gone to the Panamanian government.2019 still germane https://www.propublica.org/article/trump-companies-accused-tax-evasion-panama
that’s tiddle winks compared to the Biden Crime family. Which oh by the way has been a criminal enterprise disguised as a politician for 50 years.
But hey keep on keeping on with your TDS…………..Has your Musk DS started yet??
Jimmy Carter should be buried at sea in the Panama Canal.
Pollution of the ocean with garbage is a breach of MarPol, Annex V.