I updated my charts from the Covid-19 Project today. Let’s have a look.
New York Coronavirus Cases
US Coronavirus Cases
It was another bad day today in terms of deaths, with 34,475 but the cases and deaths are mostly flat-lining.
Pakistan a New Hot Spot
Trump Issues New Guidelines
As we knew all along as as discussed in Let’s Compare Trump 2020 Comments to Nixon Comments in 1977, this is a matter up to the states.
Trump looked very foolish say he and he alone would make the case when states reopen.
Midwest governors of MI, OH, WI, MN, IL, IN Announce Plan
Previous the West coast states did the same, followed by 7 states in the Northeast including Pennsylvania. That settled the fate over Trump’s bluster he would make the call.
No Pro Sports in 2020?
Lawsuits Just Getting Started
That was guaranteed to happen given the near universal short-term outlook of corporations.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Well, now that Covid19 has blasted by the deaths from the flu this year (24,000) and are approaching double that number, I see that the “it’s just the flu” crowd have turned to denying the numbers. Nevertheless, the fact remains that by mid-week, Covid will have killed twice as many people in a month and a half as the regular flu killed in an entire year, and that is despite the fact that social distancing has limited it, while the flu had no such limits for most of the year.
Right now we have a very interesting and unusual opportunity to compare them. Social distancing has limited deaths from Covid, and is also currently limiting deaths from the regular flu. Right now Covid is killing about 2,000 people a day in the US. I doubt that the regular flu is killing 20. Thus, it’s clear that the danger from the two are far from equal.
It’s the flu…you’re lying just like all the authoritarian governors throwing around fascist orders of house arrest…but stop spreading lies about this being worse than the flu, the data and Stanford test state otherwise, you just watch too much TV
The flu killed 24,000 people over the last year. That’s a fact. It peaked at about 200 people in one day, as opposed to Covid which has killed 2400 people in a single day. As for the Stanford test, that is a bright spot. I hope that it is correct that 3-5% of the people have already been infected. That is still not even a tenth of what is needed for “herd immunity”, but if it holds up, it does significantly lower the potential death toll in the absence of restrictions, from 2-10m to 480-800,000. (Figuring 60% minimum for herd immunity, 3% is 1/20 of the way, so 20 times 40,000=800,000, and 5% is 1/12 of the way, so 12*40,000=480,000).
My guess is that there will continue to be some form of restrictions in place, which will hold the death toll well under the maximum. The real test will come this fall. Every flu pandemic in the last 250 years has killed more people on the second wave (Nov-Mar) than the first wave the prior spring. That will be interesting, because the election will be held just as deaths are peaking, if this flu behaves the same way as other flu-like viruses of the past have behaved. It also means that the more they open up the economy now, the more people will be dying at about the time of the election, which will make it very interesting.
That was the low end flu range for 2019-20, the CDC says it is 24-62k…daily flu CFR vs covid CFR is covid had a higher rate of spread so infected more people at the same time (R0 factor of 3) but data shows could be less lethal than the flu.
The one thing that struck me about the cumulative bar chart is that negative cases are ‘flatlining’ just like positive/hospitalizations/deaths. This isn’t a good sign to me — doesn’t this mean that we’re just saturating our testing ability but we don’t really have any way to determine what’s really going on?
Or maybe more basically, wouldn’t we expect number of negative cases to start to outstrip positive cases (positive cases flatline while negative cases increase) if we are actually moving over the peak?
we are probably very close or at herd immunity…the rest if fodder for their authoritarian overreach, fascist orders of house arrest and destroying the lives of 22 million people.
I would think if we had herd immunity, the negative cases would be climbing very steeply because I believe (I could be wrong about this…) that the tests are currently for virus detection in a person’s system, not for antibodies.
Again, for negative cases to flatline along with everything else — that just seems like we’re not testing enough to get an idea of whether positive or negative cases are ‘winning out’.
They don’t test unless you are symptomatic and Stanford and few smaller serology test are showing we are
And yet, just today a bunch of counties in CA have pronounced that everyone MUST wear masks to stand on the street in the manufactured shopping lines or to enter any “essential” store, which is supposed to be every open store at this point.
The arrogance and conceit of our current leaders knows no bounds! I am voting against ALL incumbents in my state and local offices come Nov. since none have stood up against the tyranny that has been imposed on us citizens.
The new cases per day won’t be anywhere near accurate until we’re doing a lot more testing. Dead, however, is dead.
HIV-discoverer is not serious enough for you?
How about yourself ?
Research Dr. Frank Plummer…the live coronavirus sample they obtained in 2013 from Saudi Arabia…the firing husband wife team Chinese researchers in April/May 2019….connections of that team to several major US pharma companies now engaged in coronavirus vaccine
Too many researchers on the case world-wide to cover up the truth for very long …
Too many reports from varied research sources to be dismissed as “fake news” for very long …
Question is if it was released on purpose, much harder to answer, because you need access to the research and command that created it, to those who had access to the virus. Even if those were obtained you have plausible denial and accidental release or unregistered unofficial removal of virus from whichever lab. Even if it seems there is conclusive evidence of purposeful release, as onlookers we would not know if that itself was staged.
Very difficult question.
AMEN…the sheeple don’t care they place too much trust in their elected idiots.
Nice to know the current ideas floating around the innertubes netwebby thing–today “deaths are being over-reported.”
Italy, Spain, Netherlands and Germany have all looked at this in their own countries and the reported, confirmed via testing, death numbers in their own epidemic is only approximately half of the true death toll.
Deal with it.
The numbers we are getting in the US should be regarded as the lower bound of the true death rate.
Fire department of NYC (first responder) usually clocks in with 20 to 30 dead a day (on the street or in homes). They have been averaging over 200 dead a day for the last few weeks. Real stats.
I’m sure Hillary has patched her lost emails into the system to inflate the statistics so that Trump will look bad.
Sure. But dead from what? Are you saying CV19 victims are dropping dead in the streets? Shouldn’t they ALL be in hospitals when they die? It’s not like they go into a hospital and immediately expire.
they don’t bother with actual data/stats, the TV said it has be from the scary commoncold-19
I’m glad the US is reporting deaths and being relatively transparent. You can see counts for cities, counties, states, and of course nationally. A lot of countries are putting out a number with no verification.
China just revised its Wuhan death count upward by 50%. Critics within Iran allege that the deaths are double what’s being reported. Ecuador was burning bodies in the streets despite an official death toll of just 403. Supposedly large slums in India are infected, but they’re locked down even tighter than the rest of the country and little data is coming out.
Speaking of China finally admitting they’ve been lying, does anybody here still believe any of their data? They were being loudly touted as a success story for a while, ironically by people who normally despise China and automatically distrust their government.
The problem is they can’t lock down the slums in India internally and people are just hanging out in open air shacks.
Wuhan was the epicenter, so you would think they would have the biggest numbers. Even with their revision though, they are at something like 3836 deaths. Compare this to NYC, which claims 8500+ deaths. Now compare populations – NYC=8.5 million. Wuhan=11 million! Whose numbers are accurate?
China likely wants low numbers here while NY likely wants high numbers.
Our numbers are more accurate than China’s. We have no idea how many deaths Wuhan, Hubei, of the entire PRC have, but it’s far higher than they’re reporting. They basically stopped reporting new data more than two months ago.
The only solace we can take is that they can’t cover this up forever. Whether we find out through discovery of urns and graves, firsthand accounts of residents, or more astounding data like the loss of 21M cell phone users so far this year, eventually truth will leak out.
Non-sense. New York is clearly over reporting. In a event of this magnitude, you don’t assume cause.
Trump has egg on his face on this one, but more importantly the country has moved forward from closing down to ‘open or not to open’ issue, which is some sort of progress. Those territories which remain on lockdown on the authority of the governor, will have to answer to their populations who now have a frame of reference in the form of the guidelines.
That said, looks like we are now getting very close to civil war. The Dems (for lack of a better term) have the ability to do this. They will have to answer to their populations in November (if there is still a viable Republic left to vote…).
Someone above asked for some proof that CV death numbers aren’t accurate. How about this? And this only one bureaucratic dept that actually (foolishly?) has admitted that this is happening. See last 3 words of the quote?
“New York City’s Health Department said it will now also count any fatality deemed a “probable” coronavirus death, defined as a victim whose “death certificate lists as a cause of death ‘COVID-19’ or an equivalent.””
And then there is this:
Wednesday, April 8, 2020
If You Get Hit by a Car and Die, You May Be Recorded as a COVID-19 Death
Tony Fauci’s sidekick Deborah Birx stated on Tuesday at the White House press briefing that “if someone dies with COVID-19, we are counting that as a COVID-19 death.”
….
Remember, deaths are very heavily skewed toward the elderly with serious chronic conditions. Maybe COVID-19 pushed some such people, over life’s finish line, 5 minutes earlier than it would otherwise have happened but should this really be counted as a COVID-19 death? A type of counting that is fueling the lockdown of most of the country.
They are counting those dead who had Covid, because Covid is contagious, and hospitals have to isolate the patients.
Supposedly some countries, and for all I know even individual hospitals and doctors, try to dig deeper. But for operational reasons, they need to separate those with Covid from those without, regardless. So that count is already available, and done the same across all care providers. Any other way of counting, if it is to be representative across regions and hospitals, have to have buy in from lots of people with differing opinions. Most of those people have better things to do right now.
Sure, but the problem is that everyone is focusing on gross numbers right now. 538 just did a story mentioning the NY count but then went on to reinforce the likely fake numbers by predicting 50k CV19 deaths by the end of April. Huh?
And of course, the politicians, media and the headline readers only focus on what they see in headline (often designed to be clickbait) numbers. So they make bad decisions or believe in bad outcomes because of some unqualified number they saw in a headline somewhere.
As BIRX stated they were instructed to record any infected persons death as commoncold-19 regardless of cause of death…they are coding everything as COVID because the federal government is paying for covid case care…if you think otherwise need to wake up.
I talked with my cousin in the London area. My Aunt Barbara died in a nursing home of covid. He sais the hospital staff ‘helped’ her along due to her age (83). He wasn’t allowed to see her until she was unconscious and terminal. Now he must quarantine (which he was doing anyway).
Very little traffic in London right now.
when states are putting up 50% of their cases are from nursing homes when are people going to address the fecal spread in facilities where most patients are incontinent…
Mish, you know these numbers are bullshit. New York drop 3700 cases without even formally testing. This is beyond non-sense.
Yeah with our costly f’d up medical system, our politico’s not wanting to look bad, and the extremely slow ramp up of testing they are low. New York addition of probable die at homes added back some of the missing numbers. US in total is probably gonna run about 25% low, and with China you can add a couple of zeros…
Formal testing would be great, and give us greater confidence in the numbers, but it is not unreasonable to attribute a death to COVID if the major symptoms are present. I have a number of relatives who are doctors, and they have a high degree of confidence which of their patients have COVID. They tell me they are almost always correct in diagnosing COVID based on a clinical examination – later confirmed by testing. There are also telltale radiographic signs of COVID, often described as the lungs appearing to be coated with “broken glass.” And, does it make sense to test every corpse when tests are in short supply and the deceased had a clinical picture wholly consistent with COVID?
We can all agree that we should examine the numbers with a critical eye, and that political pressures can influence the count, but short of an authoritarian regime like China manipulating the data however it wants, it is hard to imagine the US numbers being similarly manipulated. The press, whistle blowers, and opposing political interests would likely ferret out any significant fraud.
In any event, I think most epidemiologists believe the most accurate numbers are developed with hindsight, mostly by looking at the number of expected deaths (based on historical data) versus the number of actual deaths. Again, not a perfect system, but a major data point in this kind of analysis.
Right under DAILY COUNTS, there is a bar graph of deaths per day. March 21&22 are the weekend. It repeats over again every weekend. They apparently don’t keep up their records during the weekend… maybe they complete the records during the weekdays. They catch up their record keeping during the week.
If you are referring to NY, the additional deaths were a result of a change in CDC classification guidelines that took effect on April 14th and explain the outlier 6000+ rise in US deaths on that day. NY added in deaths that previously were not counted to conform to the guidelines. Specifically
“On April 14, New York City reported 3,778 additional deaths that have occurred since March 11 and have been classified as “probable,” defined as follows: “decedent […] had no known positive laboratory test for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) but the death certificate lists as a cause of death “COVID-19” or an equivalent” [source]. “
Total deaths for the US now = confirmed + probable.
they have to juice the numbers somehow to prove their authoritarian overreach and fascist orders of lockdowns were necessary when they were not…and this proves herd immunity is here so they can take wear a mask recommendation and stuff it.
To those who believe death padding is being done. Can I please ask for intelligent reasons why? All I ask is the reason not be “so we can beat Trump in November.” I am as cynical as many people here, but I cannot believe governors want their economies destroyed just to beat Trump? Nov. 5th, are they really going to want to go “yea! we beat Trump” while there is rioting in every major city because we’ve been locked down for months?
In the US fatalities appear low compared to the number of case, if you compare that with many other countries. There can be reasons for this, like demographics, wider testing including asymptomatic cases, that the US is a week or more behind say European countries. In Europe often it is the other way, they are downplaying fatalities, but at the same time cases, which gives unreliable results. Either way, I don’t see US figures as correct because there are too many variables and a lot of confusion in presentation and method.
Follow the money. Extra funding for covid-19 patients.
40K each.
Remember the ADHD debacle where schools were paid $1,000 for each child diagnosed with the “condition”. I think it still exists, but maybe not. Anyway:
“The ranks of kids diagnosed with ADHD in this country continue to swell—to 12% of school-age children and as many as 20% of teenage boys, according to the CDC’s latest count—it becomes more and more urgent to look at what forces might be driving this phenomenon”.
ding, ding, ding…feds are paying for it all…not hard to figure out….guy falls off motorcycle today with brains hanging out, tested commoncold-19 last week, he died of commoncold-19 complications…because if he didn’t have we could have put his brains back together but we had to protect our doctors and not work on him.
I agree with you in wanting an intelligent reason why. When this ramped up in mid-March this “cootie” as its been called in these comments mocked the idea there would be significant deaths. It was argued the useless lockdowns would be justified by the lack of deaths after the fact. Now these people deny the deaths are happening at all. I’m sure mistakes are being made, but the fact is that two very dark blue states, CA and NY, are having very different outcomes. I doubt one has a good reason to lie in one direction while the other is lying in the other direction. I’m still inclined to think people are doing the best they can in difficult situations to save as many lives as possible. The intelligent reason for padding deaths needs to account for the radically different death rates in ideologically similar regions.
I haven’t seen one post that said nobody was dying of commoncold-19…it is all overblown and all govt officials overplayed their hand…serology testing not being done for a reason…we are at herd immunity just the old and weak immune people couldn’t fight it off as with ANY serious virus…for 98-99% this is not serious.
Maybe so the lockdown was more justifiable and doesn’t look like a blunder even though no one really knew how it would turn out.
That was an early argument, but doesn’t explain the different death rates in NY and CA.
this does…and they lied about this too, they said 2-3 weeks ago during the whole FL spring break thing that UV light DOES NOT kill this virus and FL cases are going to EXPLODE…never happened.
this also shows it has been there and we are all probably at herd immunity
When you refer to this as “common cold-19” you sound like a conspiracy theorist. Arguing the lockdown is excessive and other government actions in response to COVID is reasonable, dismissing the human toll this virus is taking is absurd. The virus is new and being studied as quickly as possible, “they” aren’t lying about everything. The government actually did the UV tests and is reporting its findings.
Winner, winner, chicken dinner!
The politicians and partisans who shutdown the world economy are not going to admit they were wrong and overreacted.
All of the politicians in power are downplaying the death totals. With the complete lack of testing during the onset likely 1,000’s of deaths were missed in the US. We all know about China’s numbers. They are confirmed cases but horseshit.
yeah, they just boosted their CFR count by 50%…so eventually they will report out the real number.
The worst of this pandemic is close to wall street, coincidence?
Fake death numbers! NY is throwing the kitchen sink into the death count. All told, the total is likely 10-15k high.
Bullet wound, “Ah yes. A common covid 19 symptom”. Lol. They did that with a shooting death in Chicago. Man found dead with 3 bullet wounds, he had heart disease, cause of death: Complications of heart disease.
Hey Jojo, how about some facts to support your claim? Otherwise your just more noise.
it is called google
Meal Team Six isn’t a threat to anyone but themselves.
I have little trust in the stats. No consistency, no cross section. Can’t trust the death rate either… too many reports of padding, ect. Ron Paul commented that there is a suspicious number of pneumonia deaths that occurred in previous years that are now missing from the present year data.
Show us those stats.
Not the best site, but supposedly the data comes from CDC:
“
Now after deaths for the entire month of March are reported, the results show that deaths in the US this March are 15% less than the average of the past four years!”
Looks like many deaths are being attributed only to Covid.
I believe the virus is real, alright, but it’s being used to benefit centralists. Looks like we are beginning a civil war tomorrow which will heat up in May when Red State trucks are turned away by Blue City barricades refusing entry into their strictly quarantined zones and locked down populations. This will promote conflict, confusion, frustration and anger.
Which is exactly what ‘they’ want. One never knows who ‘they’ are, but they are not we, us you or me!
The lizard people!
my dad always says, “‘they’ are the biggest liars out of prison”
As most cases are concentrated in certain states it makes no sense counting US total, plus March is early, plus current number of virus fatalities is small compared to total. Not saying one way or another, just saying.
In that tweet in Mish’s post, is Dr Grayson blaming the federal reply for no ramp up in testing ? I don’t know how the system works there but states have every right to buy and implement testing programs I think.. or do they just expect everything from a federal level and to hold no responsibility themselves… except not to be told what to do ? Odd system you have going there :/ .
It seems to me that viz the States constitutionally it’s up to them, but practically speaking it seems that everyone bows down to the FDA and CDC in a national medical context and they have been slow-walking everything, through either incompetence, inflexibility, stupidity or because they are on the side of those trying to effect regime change in this current global civil war (if you buy that interpretation).
So the testing was delayed since CDC first slow-walked and then bungled the testing protocols (for which of course Trump has got all the blame, surprise, surprise). Then they bad-mounted the HCQ + formulation which worked fine in 2005 and works well now, but either it’s because they are protecting some Big Pharma players potential profits, or they don’t want the disease cured before it does the damage they wish to inflict.
It’s not all as evil as it sounds, because Covid is not nearly as deadly as has been portrayed by the propagandists in mainstream media who are also playing for one side.
In war, truth is the first casualty.
And the first Big Lie always involves the true nature of the conflict and the true antagonists. The virus is a tactic in a much larger situation playing out, but everyone is getting into the medical minutiae of the virus.
These people know what they are doing.
They’ve been at it for decades but this may be their ‘finest hour.’
If I’m right, CV is not the only thing.
If I’m wrong, then this will be over with a month or two and all will be well.
Through March 31 there were only 4,064 COVID deaths reported in the US. Given the lockdown was in place for part of the month, there would be some reduction in accidental deaths on highways, in industry, etc. April will be a much better month to look at the data because of the concentration of deaths.
Correct, Schaap60. The lockdown limited many deaths from other causes, including the regular flu.
Regarding the curves not turning down. Take a look at Italy’s active cases. Still going up every day. The virus is still spreading faster than people are recovering+deaths. We are 2 weeks behind them. They and we have slowed it down so our hospitals are not overwhelmed, but we are a long way from killing it.
Some things can’t be killed. There will be a CV20, CV22, etc.
YOU’RE ALL GONNA DIE!
Spain is having trouble now also, new case started to dip, then just levelled off more or less. There are some pretty odd figures coming from the country also
Not good. Workers are in a rock and a hard spot. I suggest to any of them stay on unemployment as long as possible to get a feel for what’s happening. Honestly I don’t think opening up is a good idea but I understand. Time will tell.
COVID-19: Bats are Not the Problem, The Wildlife Market Is https://envirobites.org/2020/04/16/covid-19-bats-are-not-the-problem-the-wildlife-market-is
USA #1
USA #1
The #TrumpVirus and the #TrumpDepression are MAGA
Do you honestly think Hillary would’ve done better?
My dog would have done better
A giant, inbound, ocean boiling comet wouldn’t be worse than Hillary. That’s hardly a comparison.
What is a comparison, is that a bunch of genuine communists provenly did nearly infinitely better. As they have at most else, over the past several decades. Communists aren’t exactly a hard compare. At least not for any place staffed with anything even remotely resembling competent leadership.
As of current, Americans would be, and quite obviously too, much better off by writing in Xi, rather than voting for neither Trump nor Biden. That’s kind of sad.
best to avoid a post like that…their brains are being deprived of oxygen from wearing masks in their house so they don’t give themselves commoncold-19 virus…their TV told them that.
Do you honestly think Hillary would have done worse?