Hotspots Everywhere
National Geographic compares the New York Case Rate Peak to What’s Happening Now.
- The U.S. just experienced its worst two-week stretch, with more newly confirmed cases than at any point since its coronavirus outbreak began in early 2020. From June 25 to July 8, 674,750 Americans were diagnosed with coronavirus, and the nation’s tally grew by one million cases over the span of the past month.
- During its worst two-week period, 74,223 New Yorkers were diagnosed. That’s the equivalent of one in 114 New Yorkers.
- 536 counties have case density rates worse than one in 100 people. 294 of them have also had their worst two-week period since June 1.
- The worst density of all belongs to Lee, Arkansas, where county data indicates that on average one in 17 residents—a total of 545 people—were diagnosed every day during a two-week surge from June 4 to 17.
- Jacksonville and Miami, Florida; Los Angeles, California; Nashville, Tennessee; Oklahoma City; Atlanta, Georgia, and their surrounding areas have all just had their worst two weeks.
- In Houston, where cases have been spiking this month, one in 115 people has caught coronavirus. In Detroit, it’s one in 75. In Boston, it’s one in 39.
- One in 23 residents in Cass, Indiana, have been diagnosed with coronavirus due to cases at a meatpacking plant.
- One in 6 residents in Trousdale, Tennessee, have been diagnosed with coronavirus due to an outbreak at a correctional facility.
- Overall, one in 2,442 people in the U.S. have died from coronavirus (132,237 total).
TDS Nonsense Yet Again
I was accused of TDS for saying Coronavirus Surge in Oklahoma Linked to Trump Rally.
However, indoors air conditioning and huge numbers of people screaming do not mix. Oklahoma City had its worst two weeks. Cases in Tulsa are the highest ever.
But no, Trump had nothing to do with it. Anyone who believes that is inflicted with TDS type 2, that Trump is never at fault for anything and can do no wrong.
Reopening Disaster
In general, states that reopened early or dissed social distancing are the hardest hit.
More Covid News From Bloomberg
- Miami Mayor Calls for National Mask Mandate Ahead of Trump Trip
- New Jersey Governor Orders New Jerseyans to Mask Among Outdoor Crowds.
- Mexico Reports Record Rise in Virus Cases for Second Day in Row
Texas Governor Threatens Lockdown
The Texas Tribune reports Gov. Greg Abbott warns if spread of COVID-19 doesn’t slow, “the next step would have to be a lockdown”
With Texas continuing to break records for new coronavirus deaths and hospitalizations this week, Gov. Greg Abbott reiterated Friday afternoon that things will continue to get worse. And if people keep flouting his new statewide mask mandate, he said, the next step could be another economic lockdown.
“Things will get worse, and let me explain why,” he told KLBK TV in Lubbock. “The deaths that we’re seeing announced today and yesterday — which are now over 100 — those are people who likely contracted COVID-19 in late May.
“The worst is yet to come as we work our way through that massive increase in people testing positive.”
Houston Hospitals Turn Away Patients
Please note Houston hospitals are increasingly turning away new patients as coronavirus overwhelms emergency rooms.
Houston hospitals have been forced to treat hundreds of COVID-19 patients in their emergency rooms — sometimes for several hours or multiple days — as they scramble to open additional intensive care beds for the wave of seriously ill people streaming through their doors, according to internal numbers shared with NBC News and ProPublica.
At the same time, the region’s 12 busiest hospitals are increasingly telling emergency responders that they cannot safely accept new patients, at a rate nearly three times that of a year ago, according to data reviewed by reporters.
ProPublica and NBC News have previously reported that a public hospital in Houston ran out of a medication to treat COVID-19 patients and that a spike in at-home deaths from cardiac arrest suggests that the death toll from the coronavirus may be higher than official statistics show.
No Blame
- But hey, let’s not blame Trump for holding rallies in Oklahoma and Arizona.
- Let’s also not blame him for encouraging states to reopen quickly.
- And please do not blame Trump for anything, at any time, anywhere.
Because if you do, you will be instantly accused of having TDS by those who believe Trump is never the blame for anything.
The accusers are afflicted with TDS type 2. It is not curable. Neither is type 1, the belief that Trump is never right about anything.
Where the Hell is Hannity?
I am wondering where Hannity is hiding.
Dear Sean Hannity: Who Owes Whom an Apology?
Neither Texas nor Florida got it right. But who gives a damn these days about facts.
Mish
Haven’t you heard. This Kung Flu is nothing more than a hoax. I have that on good authority.
I can assure you that Canadians are not coming to the US for vacation. The border has been closed to non essential travel for months and will stay that way until September, I believe.
Population density is the measure by which success should be measured. Cou tries in the top left with low population densities but high rates of death should not be celebrated as successes.
Obesity is well-known to be a major risk factor for one’s susceptibility to the virus, and although the US has an absurd level of obesity in it’s population, not one person in this discussion has mentioned that factor in their analysis of our country’s infection numbers. Despite this extra risk, our morbidity and mortality from the virus are falling even though the number of cases are rising. Since the medical community can’t seem to agree on the best treatments or rationale to deal with this pandemic, there must be something else going on. Could it be herd immunity, or the fact that pathogens tend to mutate into less virulent strains in order to prolong their own survival? Nah, it’s far easier to blame the bogey man, this time the one with goofy orange hair.
A few countering articles:
A friend of mine who is an internet junkie sent me the links.
Did I miss the article where Mish apologized for voting for trump?
No, because he still believes that he was better than the alternative.
Mish,
It was I who accused you of TDS yesterday. I was hoping you would explain how you reached your conclusion re: Trump rally and the spike. I looked at the data and the ramp in cases occurred before the Trump rally, and then levelled off after the rally. Maybe you are seeing things differently to me, but I suspect you just have not even looked at the data.
PS – I am a long time reader and really like your blog. But increasingly you have you been criticizing Trump without providing supporting evidence which is why I bring up TDS. And if anyone calls you out on that then your only response is to call them idiots who think ‘Trump can do no wrong’. On the contrary, many of your other articles about Trump – e.g. on the folly of his trade war – I think are spot on. So I don’t wish to sound too negative, I think you do a good job in general.
tRump himself, basically everything he has said and done is the supporting evidence.
…Ok
How difficult is to get to a straight answer out of the anti-trump crowd. It’s a simple question.
You will not get a straight answer, ever. Everyone that voted for Trump know he’s an asshole in personality, and yet they voted for him because the alternatives are and have been much worse. Their solutions are always more government, which has proven to be a failure many times over. Power and control is all they want, so they can get rich and everyone else can fend for themselves for the leftovers.
Today on Zero Hedge: ‘Whitney: Looks Like Sweden Was Right After All’
“Presently, Sweden is very close to reaching herd immunity which is a condition in which the majority have developed antibodies that will help to fend-off similar sars-covid infections in the future.”
The shutdowns have suppressed the attainment of herd immunity in the U.S. and lead to s surge in cases when reopening the economy, which was predicted well in advance by experts.
The shutdowns also resulted in a back lash, even in leftist ruled California, which was also predicted by experts. Governor Newsom couldn’t keep the state locked down, because people were tired of being cooped up.
Every quack is always “very close” to some sort of greatness. Just not today.
Makes little difference whether the quack is promoting “self driving/battery powered cars”, socialist workers utopias or “herd immunity.” It’s always the same story. Quacks will quack.
Wasn’t Sweden on the verge of herd immunity in May too? I guess we’ll see, but I have no reason to believe it’s any truer now.
Does anybody remember Legionnaires Disease?
Remember it, no. Know a little about it, yes. Contaminated water systems, especially cooling towers, can make susceptible people sick with a bacterial pneumonia if they breath the contaminated vapor. It kills some of those who become sick. It can be treated with antibiotics. Before the CDC identified the cause of the illness it was very scary.
How does that compare to a respiratory virus that can be spread person to person, can infect multiple systems in a person’s body, can infect different animal orders, and may have a surprisingly long latency period both before and after the infected becomes ill?
For example, food production slated for commercial and institutional consumption was thrown away when the lockdowns happened. When governments ordered lockdowns, they had an obligation to step in to buy that production and distribute it through alternate channels. It is not as if there were fewer mouths to feed. Meanwhile, there have been record long lines of people waiting for food assistance from volunteer organizations. US governments could not handle even that simple logistics challenge. Meanwhile, the Biden campaign wants us to believe that government will correctly manage an even larger slice of everyone’s lives in the future? The claim is ridiculous.
I would appreciate if you can shed some light on what good option is available for our leadership selection, because I do not see any. The best I can come up with is that the legislative and executive branches need to be kept divided between the parties so they cannot easily agree on how to further skin the citizenry.
“To be fair, I think one also must acknowledge that many of the pandemic decisions are made at state and local levels. “
Exactly the problem. There was no unified national strategy which the President should have formulated and managed. The fact that many decisions were made at a local level does not give the President a pass, it is further evidence of his failings.
Although, if the “experts” at the governmental CDC were advising Trump, who’s the idiot, Trump or the “experts?” As I recall, there was a national set of guidelines updated as the data became available, but many states and locals chose their own way to interpret those. Are you suggesting roll in the tanks to force them to conform?
“Are you suggesting roll in the tanks to force them to conform?”
…
Why? DJT can just threaten states by withholding federal $$ … oh, wait … he IS doing that (re school openings).
My blue state government has handled things well, as did my local civil government including town and county health districts. It can be done, even in America, but not if you elect fools, and not if your population is full of fools.
https://www.psypost.org/2020/07/covidiot-study-lower-cognitive-ability-linked-to-non-compliance-with-social-distancing-guidelines-during-the-coronavirus-outbreak-57293
Thanks, Anda, for the article with actual useful data. Herd immunity seems key to why the protests in New York don’t cause a spike where the virus first arrived in the US, but the rallies and opening in the southern states can increase the number of cases, where herd immunity has presumably not yet been achieved. Mish’s map actually reinforces this, although I think he was really trying to imply that the southern states were wrong/stupid. Since sheltering at home has also been shown to result in increasing numbers of cases in NY, the argument that shutdowns are the answer is mixed at best, since on one side it may slow the spread, but on the other it will also slow the reaching of sufficient herd immunity. In the end, it seems as if Farr was right, and that sheltering the vulnerable instead of everyone else would have been the more prudent approach. If Trump is at fault, it’s because he was stupid enough to listen to the self-proclaimed experts who now appear to be wrong far more often than they were right.
“… but the rallies and opening in the southern states can increase the number of cases, where herd immunity has presumably not yet been achieved. “
Perhaps there will be marching in the streets in the southern states which might also help increase the number of cases.
If you were including “protests” under the category of “rallies”, then I misread you. Otherwise, given the inarguable power of three in literature, rhetoric and likely all things, I suggest amending your sentence thus (I added the “ing” to each type of gathering for the sake parallelism) :
“… but the rallying, protesting and opening in the southern states can increase the number of cases, where herd immunity has presumably not yet been achieved. “
*Note – the “power of three” assumes the new, non-Western math (which actually did not originate in the West) in which base 10 is deemed a racist, patriarchal construct has not yet taken hold.
I can’t count to three.
Is there really evidence that rallies bump up transmission very much? I’ve been getting the idea that outdoor transmission is not common.
Evidence is not compatible with TDS, BDS or RDS. Even Mish had ODS to some degree, so at least it’s bipolar. It’s the same can of crap over and over and over. Disagree and you’re racist or stupid or uneducated. Present evidence and it’s ignored.
Highly infectious.- everyone agrees
Airborne — many experts upgraded from just Person to person
So now it’s like a cold, virtually all are going to get this eventually.
Know why colds and flu are milder in SUMMER – VITAMIN D from sun exposure
Know what ethnic group produces Vit D easier?
Know what group appears to be affected by Covid the most?
Know what treatment is routinely used in Europe now?
Know that you can build up immunity without contracting a disease?
Most of Trump’s supporters are not college educated. Say no more.
Did that make you feel better? Smarter? Here–have a cookie.
In fact, the majority of Americans are not college educated. The percentage is in the seventies. And the number of black Americans that aren’t college educated–well–given that–it just makes your statement seem a tad racist.
I guess your semi-prejudicial labeling of the folks you seem to despise as “Trump supporters” gets you a pass. Here, have another cookie.
You might want to check your facts. My statement was that most Trump supporters are not college educated. In fact over 60% of Americans have some level of college education. More than 1/3 of Americans over the age of 25 have a 4 year college degree. Also, most blacks are not Trump supporters. Blacks vote overwhelmingly democrat.
I’m wondering whether you include the undocumented in your tally of the American population?
I’ll note again, your statements seem a tad racist because many of the undocumented and black American population are not college educated. Perhaps you only wish to include Asian Americans and white Americans in your count?
If you pull out Asian Americans and white Americans, the numbers of college educated drops significantly. And that’s when disparaging remarks like “Most Trump supporters are not college educated.” bite you in the ass. You get that, right?
You’re saying Trump supporters are idiots because they aren’t college educated. Substitute a pronoun for Trump supporters, e.g. Those people are idiots because they’re not college educated.
Now, go a step further and make the writing even tighter: Idiots are not college educated. You get it now, right?
Again you claim I am racist. I make no statements one way or the other about race. I agree that the majority of the US population with no college education were born outside of the US. That does not make me racist. You also seem to believe that most of the undocumented and blacks are Trump supporters. I know most blacks vote democratic. I Also doubt the undocumented are Trump supporters. Quite honestly I am shocked and appalled at Trump’s treatment of immigrants – whatever happened to “bring me your huddled masses”. Trump seems only to want nice white immigrants or at least plays that up to his white supremacist supporters.
Dude quotes a statistic, and presents no argument beyond the stats. You’re the one who is projecting racism on others. You sound like Trump projecting blame for his own actions and stances. Please explain how the act of quoting a statistic can be a racist act. Or admit your straw man fallacy states something unspoken by the poster. i.e. it was an ad hominem.
About a third of Americans have a college degree. The absence of a college degree does not somehow make Trump supporters superior. If it did, there wouldn’t be so many people becoming debt slaves to the government in search of a degree. It turns out that being stupid is a condition that affects degree holders and non-degree holders alike.
Regardless of which college-educated factoid percentage one throws out, the insinuation in the comment about Trump supporters was that college education makes one more apt to pick the right presidential candidate for their own beliefs and interests. But even that is an irrational point to make if you then point out that blacks, who are generally less college educated, vote overwhelmingly democrat. Then, if you consider that most large colleges and universities seem to be full of more nonconservative professors, it would make sense that Trump supporters didn’t attend those.
I’m sure that your statement applies to the BLM folks too.
The only demographic group still behind Trump are white men without college degrees.
The less educated you are, the less susceptible to propaganda. Intellectuals are most prone, farmers most impervious. That’s empirical science, unintuitive perhaps, but there it is.
Empirical science? Stands back in amazement.
Oh for crying out loud. The scientific method is empirical at its core: Make an observation. Make a hypothesis. Make a prediction. Test the hypothesis. Iterate. If the hypothesis is good enough then it becomes theory and others can use it to make predictions. At that point the process is no longer empirical.
People who are poorly educated are potentially ignorant but they are not necessarily ignorant. Also, one can be extremely intelligent and well educated and still be ignorant at the same time. Colleges can be a total waste of money or not, depending on what one gets out of it. Self-righteous behavior can be found among both the college educated and those without college degrees, and it is bad behavior in both cases.
And exactly how do you determine who is or isn’t susceptible to propaganda and how do you determine their level of intellect based purely on observation? Point me to a scientific study that says intelligent people are more susceptible to propaganda and I might agree.
“And exactly how do you determine who is or isn’t susceptible to propaganda and how do you determine their level of intellect based purely on observation?”
I was not commenting on that, but since you asked:
(1) Everyone is susceptible to propaganda. Propaganda involves clever people telling a lie that sounds like truth in an effort to steer the opinions of others. The best anybody can do is attempt to independently verify what is being claimed.
(2) We frequently try to measure intellect based purely on observation. An example would be standardized tests taken by students. As everyone knows, the methods are flawed.
And neither are they three legged.
This kind of snobbery played a significant role in the rise of Trump. People don’t respond well to condescension .
SUPREMACIST
“Trump is never at fault for anything and can do no wrong.”
….
I have a family member who thinks DJT AWESOME!!!!!
Facts are useless … EVERYTHING a conspiracy to make him look bad.
To me, tracking number of cases is less useful than tracking number of hospitalizations or deaths, though these are certainly lagging indicators. The problem with analysis based on number of hospitalizations is the lack of uniformity in how this data is collected and reported across the nation and the world.
States are hitting their limits on testing again so we are missing cases and that will cause more spread. Death is not the only negative outcome – people have severe lingering health impacts – we don’t yet know how many. I had to go somewhere yesterday and there were many people with flimsy masks placed below their nose in an indoor space. Are these people resigned to getting it? I have friends who have parties with family and friends indoors with no masks. I just don’t understand?
And all the while, a bunch of five year planning commies, repeatedly manage to test entire 10 million inhabitant cities by now. All in a few days and without much interruption to anything….. I suppose, even in The Age of Incompetence, some still manage to be even more incompetent than others….
It’s called freedom. Freedom can sometimes cost you. Some people fall into the grand canyon each year, killing themselves taking selfies. That is their right. Let people do what they are going to do, just don’t cry about the consequences later on.
Ignore for a moment the early failures related to PPE and test availability. The real failure of Trump is not using the bully pulpit to convince people to wear masks and take the virus seriously. Part of that too is failure to acknowledge that deaths are not the only metric of value.
Kudlow did recommend masks yesterday.
A. Day late and a dollar short.
Still, it shocked me. Better late than never. Masks can still do a lot of good.
Didn’t the surgeon general and Fauci make statements early on against the public wearing masks? These would be the experts that an alleged buffoon Trump is supposed to listen to, but somehow Trump gets the blame? Man, if these circular arguments get any more ridiculous …
Yes, both the Surgeon General and Fauci got it wrong. However, as the science changed, and the recommendations changed, Trump didn’t, at least for a long time. The WHO still recommends not wearing masks, by the way, but I doubt Trump listens to them.
The biggest mistake Trump made was inserting himself into the middle of it, and making it political. Had he simply allowed the task force to do it’s job, and stayed out it, he would be insulated from the blame.
Do you need someone to tell you to brush your teeth, wipe your ass, don’t eat dirt, etc? Assuming you can determine what is best for yourself, why is it government’s job to baby you and coddle you and tell you to wear a mask and be socially distant? Can’t you figure this out for yourself? Why does everyone beg to have the nanny state run their fucking lives? Idiots, all.
No really debating that the rallies are just a bad idea but also let’s not forget about the massive impact of the protests which are playing out in many US states today. The normalization of the protests in the mainstream media gave a free pass for Oklahoma.
Indoor vs outdoor transmission, do yourself a favor and look it up
One of the most fundamental reasons why everything always fail without exception in any possible progressive dystopia, is exactly this: The dumb ones can be counted on to always fall for the nonsense that “But….uh….Thiiings are diiferent thiiis time….My snowflakes are specialer than ‘theirs’….”
It doesn’t matter whether it is progressive idiot A saying Trump rallies are baaaad because of Covid, but “we have to protest”; or idiot B saying “protesters are risking lives by congregating during a pandemic” but “political rallies are demoooocraciii”, or C saying “I believe in free speech, buuuut Dear Leader has to do something about ‘hurtful’ speech”, or D saying “free markets!.. uh, but Dear Leader has to ban people fro supplying more housing to the homeless, lest the poppeti vaijue of my shack ‘ may ‘go down’..” blah, blah, blah, blah….
With the end result being nothing but pure arbitrariness, and abject failure at everything.
Well here is the other side to the argument, and I have no idea who is right. Herd immunity at 20% seems optimistic, I don’t know. What seems true for Sweden is that fatalities have decreased drastically in spite of high infection rate, but just too many variables for me to add it up.
It seems this is the only rational approach. The effects, short and long, human and economic, of lock downs is just too great for what appears by any measure no real benefit.
This virus is here and they’ll likely never find a good vaccine. If they could have made a vaccine for herpes how profitable would that be? And they haven’t, not for lack of trying or interest. And that seems a whole lot more straight forward of a virus to tackle than this manufactured monster.
Sweden’s controversial anti-lockdown strategy resulted in a high death toll and no real economic gain, data shows
https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-coronavirus-strategy-high-death-toll-no-economic-gain-data-2020-7
According to T-Cell testing Sweden infection rate may be as high at 30%. Maybe the current transmission rate from the Swedes modified social behaviors allows herd immunity at this infection rate. I guess we’ll find out in the coming weeks.
That ZH article is pure garbage, it quotes total nonsense: “… the quicker a virus will burn out as it loses the ability to infect more people, which is exactly what COVID-19 is doing everywhere, including the U.S… .” The virus is NOT burning out or losing its ability to infect more people in the US or globally, as cases continue to rise.
There is debate over whether there is even a HIT for the virus, as immunity may not last more than a handful of months. Too early for people to say they know the science to claim they have been proven right by anything with this virus.
The covidiots will never accept that this virus is both extremely dangerous AND that Trump shoulders significant responsibility for the failed U S response. As my friend says you can’t fix stupid.
The evidence is mounting to a place where the term with which you flippantly paint the “other” opinions or opinions of the “other” might morph and rotate 180 degrees, painting in large black letters the word across your own forehead.
Here’s a hint for you, bub, when you look in the mirror, the word will look like toidivoc, but make no mistake–it’s your word. You own it.
Dream on dude.
What is the evidence? Examples?
Likely heard it from a friend of a friend or Yahoo news
You use the word “covidiots” seemingly in all your short, meaningless posts. Does it make you feel like a big guy looking down on everyone who disagrees with you? I think it makes you look like the idiot.
Well isn’t that special.
Just to set the record straight. I don’t use that term to describe anyone who disagrees with me. I actually use that term to describe those individuals who believe that the COVID virus is no more dangerous than the flu AND that Trump bears little responsibility for the fact that the US response to the COVID virus has been woefully short of the mark.
People, trump is not a god. Believing that he or anyone else can save you from plague is moronic. Do what YOU think is in your own best interest and forget what anyone else says. Then you will only have yourself to thank or blame for the outcome. But nooooo, we all think we need someone else to blame for nature. Get real.
Health policy is one of the long standing functions of governments, going back thousands of years to governments that build aqueducts and controlled waste disposal. Why? Because no one person can control it alone. Take garbage. Suppose I have a garbage service, but my neighbor doesn’t? I’ll still have rats. Or mosquito control? Suppose I make sure my property has no pooling water, but my neighbor collects old tires? I’ll still be infested with mosquitoes. The same applies to pandemics. I can try to be safe, but only a unified effort can control it.
“Overall, one in 2,442 people in the U.S. have died from coronavirus (132,237 total).”
Is that math correct? There are about 330 million people in the US.
Yes, basically .04% of our country’s population has succumbed to covid19. More will die but it looks like the death rate is actually dropping so we won’t come anywhere close to the original model that showed a 2-3% death rate. That’s assuming most/all of our country’s population will be exposed to this highly contagious virus as some point.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/after-months-of-decline-americas-coronavirus-death-rate-begins-to-rise/2020/07/10/261fb24a-c2cd-11ea-864a-0dd31b9d6917_story.html
The original model I saw was by IMHE, and called for 75,000 to 200,000 deaths, with a most likely possibility of 150,000. they later lowered it to 75,000 when the country locked down, but raised it back up when they country re-opened. It’s actually a bit higher now than the original estimate, ranging from 140-200k.
Not 2-3%? Oh, that’s ok then.
Glibness does not respond to the fact that people die each year. You cannot save everyone. However, if we let these fools ruin the economy it could be a 15+ year great depression. I’m very sorry that some people will die. Someday it will be me. But I prefer to die doing what I want, not cowering against a disease with 0.04% mortality rate.
Glass half empty, Curious?
Case Fatality Rate (CFR) and Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) are not the same thing. IFR is possibly low because the majority of people have not yet been infected. Since the US does not seem to know what fraction of the population has been exposed, I am not aware how the IFR is useful at this point in time.