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Tweets of the Day: Leading Indicators, Supply Apocalypse, Omicron, Inflation

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22 comments on Tweets of the Day: Leading Indicators, Supply Apocalypse, Omicron, Inflation

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Leading Indicator of Recessions

“Large deviations of the Leading Economic index from the Coincident index have been a good leading indicator of #recessions. Watch for the LEI to begin to contract for a signal.”

Supply Apocalypse 

“The supply apocalypse is over. Omicron won’t change that.”

Omicron Most Cases Aren’t Serious

The Draft? 

We don’t want it or need it. 

Global Delivery Times

German Inflation 

“OOPS! Germany’s #inflation surges to 5.2% in Nov, highest since June 1992, exceeding 5% estimate. CPI EU harmonized (HICP) jumped 6% in Nov.”

Tulsi on Build Back Better

“Commonsense tells us that dumping trillions more dollars into the economy right now (via BBB) will make the inflation crisis worse, and we certainly don’t need 87,000 more IRS agents harassing regular folks.“

Tulsi for President?

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22 Comments
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Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
What causes the most annoying “Read more of this conversation” breakout link to a new page?  Why is this necessary at all?  What is this supposed to achieve by mangling an ongoing thread and pushing part of it off to a new page that few are going to open up????
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killben
killben
4 years ago
“Tulsi for President?”
Oh yes. But then she is too sensible, no playing to the gallery, no  rhetoric to get elected. Also going against her she does not want money printing. Oh my, what a crazy thought.
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Webej
Webej
4 years ago
Tulsi for President?
I wish.
She might appeal to common sense & the American people, but would be dissed by the media, Tech, the MIC, and the political class.
Neither party would support her candidacy.
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Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
Will Tulsi run for president again?
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thimk
thimk
4 years ago
Surprise surprise , the virus is mutating to a more transmissible/less severe  form .  Hasn’t past science shown that to be the case also ?  Have we thrown the baby out with the bath water ? Supply apocalypse will mutate into a more the deadlier form of demand apocalypse (more spike proteins) /s    
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Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
Reply to  thimk
That’s how it would work normally but the Covax’s throw a wrench into that equation.
The problem is that the Covax shots are LEAKY.  Lookup Marek’s disease in chickens for a parallel.  Leaky vaccines don’t kill (sterilize) the underlying virus.  So any vaxxed person who becomes infected by Covid will have the virus STILL festering in their nose & throat, continually mutating as it tries to complete its life cycle.
Because the leaky Covx shots don’t kill the virus but generally, just reduce its effects on those infected, people who are vaxxed AND infected may not feel very sick, thus allowing them to go to work and go about their lives , interacting with multiple people and effectively making the vaxxed act as super spreaders.
This is why the virus may not necessarily die down/off as it would naturally.  Actions have reactions.  When we screw around with things that we don’t really understand (like making our own cells manufacture spike protein targets for the immune system), there may be unintended consequences to the lack of understanding of all the nuances involved in this foolish attempt to minimize an already relatively small number of associated deaths.
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Scooot
Scooot
4 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
The irony is that if this theory holds true, vaccine passports are actually protecting the unvaccinated from the vaccinated. 
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Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
Reply to  Scooot
It’s not a theory.  This is what is happening.
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Scooot
Scooot
4 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
Yes, wrong word. From what I’ve read it happened over a long time period, which doesn’t make it any better of course. In fact it’s probably worse, because it’ll be too late when the powers at be try to do something about it.   I’ve read an interesting article about it in National Geographic (written in 2015).
I first read about it here.
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Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
Reply to  Scooot
Yes, great paper!  I had read this previously but sort of forgot about it in the mass of articles, links and refs I have accumulated.
I’ll be pulling some quotes out of this in the future, especially the Vicky/Carol story, which is a very good example of what is going on.
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Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
4 years ago
*chirp* … *chirp* *chirp* …
reflects (more or less) the results of my ongoing effort to find how Black Friday weekend retail sales went.
Wait a minute … maybe that DOES tell me all I need to know …
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Carl_R
Carl_R
4 years ago
Reply to  Tony Bennett
I was in the local Costco yesterday to get some groceries. The store was certainly not empty, but neither was it packed. I asked a guy working there, and he said it had been a very slow weekend. I wasn’t in any other stores over the weekend, so that’s the only data point I have for you.  I did find this for you, which is along the same lines:
“busy, but not black friday busy”, up 12.1% from 2020 (which was awful)
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Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
4 years ago
Reply to  Carl_R
Thanks.  I saw that, but  from Friday.  I’m looking for total sales  (instore + online) for Thursday – Sunday.
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Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus
4 years ago
Reply to  Carl_R
Costco is poor bellwether of sales.
For one, food is mostly purchased in brick and mortar stores.
Secondly, Costco has an amazingly poor online shopping site.
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Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
Reply to  Maximus_Minimus
Secondly, Costco has an amazingly poor online shopping site.
That’s because Costco computer systems are back in the 1980-1990’s.  Go to the people at the front and ask them to search for a product.  They are STILL using green screen CICS!  They don’t use RFID and have no idea where things are.  Ask them to find a product for you and they send someone out to physically walk the aisles looking for the product.
Here is an excerpt from a Costco employees resume back in 2013 found on Linkedin.  I would wager that they are still using the same obsolete systems in 2021.
Having experience in Maintenance of Legacy applications on IBM MAINFRAMES using IDMS, COBOL II, JCL, VSAM, IDMS, ADSO, CICS and DB2.
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Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus
4 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
Great find and laugh. I am not surprised, having done IBM mainframes, and even a course in COBOL in the eighties. 
If they didn’t have a brick and mortar food business, Costco would be a huge sell for me.
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Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
4 years ago
Nice move on S&P after POTUS said no lockdown (for now) … wonder if Sleepy Joe gave Hunter a heads up …
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Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus
4 years ago
Trade unions in Germany are asking for 5% pay raise. Temporarily, off course.
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Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
4 years ago
Reply to  Maximus_Minimus
German CPI (november) out today … year over year 5.2% (expected 5.0%)
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Scooot
Scooot
4 years ago
“When things are nuts, they don’t stay nuts for ever” 
Presumably the exception is financial asset prices! 
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Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
4 years ago
Biden’s brilliant strategy to win wars–place females on the front line, along with young males…  What could possibly go wrong?
You want to win wars with equal opportunity? Put the women in a separate force–let’s call them Amazons. Train them to be vicious in combat–take no prisoners with testicles intact.
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Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
4 years ago
NBER did a working paper a month or so ago on US “may” be entering a recession based on consumer confidence / sentiment.
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