Tweets of the Day: Making Money, Energy, Tracking Loved Ones, Stock Market Earnings

vanderlyn

3 years ago

short JPY and long USD is a gimme. get paid the carried interest too. gear it up and it gets juicy.

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JackWebb

3 years ago

The value of corporate equities is not the sum of future discounted earnings, but rather the sum of future discounted free cash flows. Similar but not identical.

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Doug78

3 years ago

Crowdfunding for science.

https://www.thefarside.com/2022/10/06/0

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RonJ

3 years ago

“Nuclear power and fossil fuels brought us here. They caused this crisis, they are not the solution.”

We wouldn’t have a modern world without them. The person who said the quote, doesn’t live in the dark and cold. Ask him if he would want them shut down right here, right now, and the response would be, “are you crazy?”

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Webej

3 years ago

Reply to RonJ

The insanity of the people “leading” us plumbs depths that one cannot describe.

Wheat & beef have brought us to this juncture. They cannot be the solution.

Steel & aluminum have brought us to the current stage. They cannot be the solution.

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Captain Ahab

3 years ago

Reply to Webej

Politicians and banksters brought us to the precipice. They should be guillotined.

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Webej

3 years ago

Reply to Captain Ahab

Ah yes, as Max Keser stated:

It’s not the banks that need to be recapitalized, it’s the bankers that need to be decapitated.

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MPO45

3 years ago

I track G20 inflation on a monthly basis. While all the data isn’t in yet, it doesn’t look good. G20 inflation went from 7.29% to 7.49% and those numbers are excluding Turkey and Argentina. If I add those numbers in it is 13.803333 to 13.80. The averages have been tracking upwards regardless of what has been happening with US CPI. I know a few people here are expecting a pivot on rates but I don’t see that happening barring a black swan or credit meltdown.

Global inflation is at 10% so plan accordingly.

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PapaDave

3 years ago

Regarding how the Russian invasion of Ukraine affects the worldwide energy transition: I read all the various analysts and their opinions. Pretty much a consensus. More support for fossil fuels in the short term. Greater support for renewables and hydrogen in the long term. And a desire to reduce dependence on OPEC and Russia.

Net result: growing demand for oil and gas, yet restricted supply; meaning higher prices and larger profits for Canadian and US oil and gas companies.

This ties in with the tweets on stock market earnings and making money.

With oil prices likely to stay in the $80-$100 range for now, and likely to average $100 in 2023, most of these companies are generating so much cash flow that they are paying down or even paying off their debt. Once debt levels reach desired levels that cash flow can be returned to shareholders through dividends, share buybacks or both. At $80 WTI Free cash flow levels should be in the 20% range. Add 5% for each additional $10 WTI.

I would be happy to receive 20%-30% dividends in 2023.

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Esclaro

3 years ago

So being “woke” is worse than being a freedom denying book burning Christian Taliban zealot? That’s the Republican Party – cult of the Orange Jesus!

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RonJ

3 years ago

Reply to Esclaro

Democrat Newsom is denying my doctor the freedom to tell me the truth about the Covid shots. It was Biden that wanted to mandate the unsafe injections, not Trump. Biden has also been working to suppress free speech, getting social media to block those speaking the truth about the Covid injections.

Seeking freedom, my Cuban neighbor left Newsom’s California two years ago.

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Captain Ahab

3 years ago

Reply to RonJ

Which proves Cubans are smarter than Californians…

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Zardoz

3 years ago

Can we get a definition of ‘woke’ beyond a simple pejorative? Seems to mean anything from “acknowledges slavery and the holocaust “ to “sacrifices babies to Nancy Pelosi”

I’m serious… what do you guys mean when you use the word?

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MarkraD

3 years ago

Reply to Zardoz

It’s a single word for “Political Correctness”… LBGT, race, women’s equality…etc.

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Zardoz

3 years ago

Reply to MarkraD

Thank you. Here I thought it was something original… should have known better. Conservatives love buzzwords and slogans, but they don’t ever have new ideas.

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pemdas1

3 years ago

Reply to Zardoz

I think that is because conservatives know that replacing ‘what works’ with ‘what sounds good’ is generally a failing strategy.

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Captain Ahab

3 years ago

Reply to Zardoz

LMAO. Democraps gave us ‘dreamer’ (spawn of illegal immigrants), among many others.

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Webej

3 years ago

Reply to Zardoz

As the word woke implies, your eyes have opened and you see the light.

What light do you suddenly see to which you have been blind?

It’s the CRT understanding of how things have developed, and it’s been around since Marx, Nietzsche, and Freud.

It’s when a feminist is confronted by women who are not onboard, and concludes that they have a ‘false consciousness’, identifying with the oppressor class. The ‘woke’ group understands the ‘causes’ of the other group’s behavior and attitude, but, of course, not vice versa.
If someone says something about the economy, it’s become completely commonplace to point out to their class background and interests, instead of arguing about the substantive point.
With psychology it’s even worse: You just treat me like that b/c your mother used to do this or that.

Once engaged in this dialectic, everybody thinks they perfectly understand the factors that determine other people’s thinking, but this creates an infinite mirror regress of deeper layers at which people think they have explained away the other’s behavior.

The only thing that never happens once you’re in this dialectic is discussion of the substance, and any meeting of minds.

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Webej

3 years ago

Reply to Webej

This comment disappeared to go into the moderator, and, for the first time, something re-emerged at a later time.

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Webej

3 years ago

Reply to Zardoz

As the word ‘woke’ implies, it means you have opened your eyes and see the light.

So what light are you now seeing to which you had previously been blind?

Well, it’s the CRT-like take on how the current social relationships have developed and what they mean.

This take on what things means has actually been around since Marx, Freud, and Nietzsche.

It’s when a feminist is confronted by women that are not on board, and explains away their attitudes and behavior in terms of their ‘false consciousness’, identifying with the oppressor class and ignorant of the history of patriarchal repression.
It’s when any statement about economics/society can be dismantled simply by pointing at the class background or material interests of the person involved, without having to engage in any kind of reasoned debate.
It’s when someone tells you that your behavior or attitude is due to how your mother used to treat you, or some such circumstance, like your narcissism, neurotic attachment to order, addictive escapism, etc.

The one party thinks they perfectly understand the circumstances that have led up to the other’s attitude and point of view.

But of course there is an infinite regress (hall of mirror reflections) involved in this avenue of approach, in which various parties are convinced only they understand the causes and determinants of the other’s attitudes while the other remains ignorant of them.

Once you engage in this sort of dialectic, in which everybody’s thoughts are not taken at face value but dismissed as ‘conditioning’, no substantive exchange of arguments or any meeting of minds is possible: the other side can be summarily dismissed as a product of conditioning vectors which you see but about which they are in the dark.

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Avery

3 years ago

Reply to Zardoz

It’s the state of being after the Wake-up Call.

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vanderlyn

3 years ago

Reply to Zardoz

it’s hooey phrase. like war on christmas. dumb social media phrases that mean nothing. musk is an idiot that just likes attention like trump and AOC…………..surprised mish fell for it. wokeness is nothing to fear. nothing to fear but fear itself old boys.

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grady

3 years ago

Reply to Zardoz

Dictionary definition is “awake to social injustice”. It was originally a term from the liberal side of the aisle, starting in the black community. It has been taken over as the new cool term for politically correct. Right-of-aisle folks use it as a negative term. I’m wondering if the left will abandon the term as more and more politicos start to embrace the negative image.

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spa sidechats

3 years ago

Everyone knows the bond yield should be slightly higher than inflation but it can’t go that high. Everyone also knows the money printing needs to stop but that can’t happen either. We are stuck in stagflation with no way out.

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Doug78

3 years ago

Playing the odds.

https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/i-know

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MarkraD

3 years ago

Reply to Doug78

I know what you did, Doug

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Felix_Mish

3 years ago

Reply to Doug78

Doug78, we share tastes in comics. Seen Dinosaur Comics? https://www.qwantz.com/

T-rex is Snoopy of spring/summer ’66.

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Doug78

3 years ago

Reply to Felix_Mish

What can I say? I like humor. I still read Dinosaur comics from time to time.

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Matt3

3 years ago

Reply to Doug78

Thanks for posting the link! Made me laugh!!

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Salmo Trutta

3 years ago

It would
seem that somewhere, somehow, if total net debt (not just Federal Debt) keeps
rising faster than production (Real-GDP), the burden of interest charges at
some point now indefinite and unknown, but nevertheless real, will become too
great to carry.

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A Dose of Reality 5

3 years ago

Reply to Salmo Trutta

There are few that understand this. Those that do will take advantage to build their wealth. A burst of high inflation will make yesterdays debt easier to pay with tomorrows dollars. The can will be kicked down the road until we get to the cliff. Will thw kicker or the can be the first one over?

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MPO45

3 years ago

I like that inflation chart from Alf. It’s been what I’ve been saying all along, it is mathematically impossible to get inflation down to less than 4% barring some black swan event. With biden now tightening the screws on china with regards to microchips, i expect some type of retaliation that will further cause supply chain issues or other shortages. Inflation is here to stay and throw the 60 million people that will retire over the next 8 years and it’s going to be long and painful across the board.

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MPO45

3 years ago

Reply to MPO45

https://www.dairyherd.com/news/labor/how-handle-labor-shortage-your-farm

I am reading through the article and one thing kept jumping out at me, WHY NOT JUST PAY PEOPLE MORE! The article has all these suggestions for employee retention like busing kids to daycare, ‘free’ cell phones, ‘free’ trips as bonus and training. People can achieve all of these things on their own if they are simply paid more money. The article hits it on the head though, “Further, as more immigrant workers achieve greater education and literacy, it’s become harder for agriculture to compete with other industries….”

I can tell you none of these things will help with retention so there is only one question left.

Got food stocked & stored?

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MarkraD

3 years ago

Reply to MPO45

Keep in mind, part of the Fed’s current conundrum is wage inflation, they’re raising rates to stunt excessive growth.

If you were to make an argument that demand isn’t the primary or only driver of inflation, I might not argue.

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A Dose of Reality 5

3 years ago

Reply to MPO45

The article writer does not understand the plight of the migrant worker. Someone living 4 plus to a room that can barley make rent. Does not have reliable transportation. May not be legal. May fear ‘la migrant. Relies upon an underground network where the suceeses and failures are shared – legal or not by those that have ‘made it’ May have to leave an area because they owe a coyote thousands of dollars and cant pay. Doesnt have medical care or insurance. Fears local law enforcement. This person will appear to act irrationally to someone that has all of the above and excess disposable income. Of course paying more will allevaite the majority of these problems. Very inflationary. We need more automation. Education will always lead to rejection of low wage dangerous physically draining life shortening labor intensive jobs. Using Mexico as an example. Maybe a job rotation agreement with Mexico would be a win win for everyone. Be legal and make money in the US. Build a better homestead in Mexico.

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Call_Me

3 years ago

Reply to A Dose of Reality 5

“Maybe a job rotation agreement with Mexico would be a win win for
everyone. Be legal and make money in the US. Build a better
homestead in Mexico.”

That used to be the way things were before ICE and friends stepped up enforcement efforts. Of course these days there are many more migrants and a significant portion are from south of Mexico, so the ‘commute’ might be unworkable.

https://fee.org/articles/enforcement-didnt-end-illegal-immigration-in-the-50s-legal-immigration-did/

Call_Me_Al

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dtj

3 years ago

Reply to MPO45

There are lots of cheap employers out there who want to get away with paying as little as possible. Here’s a real-world cheap employer example: https://boston.craigslist.org/nwb/lab/7544728362.html. The minimum wage in high cost of living Massachusetts is $14.25 and this employer gives a pay range of $14.25-$16 an hour for movers. Also of note is the employer pays no benefits for part time workers – so the employer is apt to prefer to hire just part timers.

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Avery

3 years ago

Reply to dtj

I didn’t open your link because you already had me at ‘Massachusetts’.

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TexasTim65

3 years ago

Reply to MPO45

Part of the reason they can’t just pay more is that lots of different foods have set prices (presigned contracts, milk marketing boards etc) that set the buy price for farmers products (wheat, milk corn etc). So unless they pay more, then paying more to employees simply causes you to go bankrupt because you can’t pass on the labor cost.

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MarkraD

3 years ago

Reply to TexasTim65

Too bad we can’t find a source of labor that could work at affordable prices, wish there was some hidden labor pool somewhere, willing to come here and work.

Would certainly help with wage inflation as a result of labor shortages, I would think…

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Zardoz

3 years ago

Reply to MPO45

If China retaliating brings production back here, that’s a Very Good Thing. It’s moronic to be dependent on your enemies, and China is very much our enemy.

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spa sidechats

3 years ago

Reply to Zardoz

Production can’t be brought back. China does not have corp health insurance, paid vacation, paid maternity leave for men and women, paid holidays, paid abortions, paid college, 401Ks, ESG scores and massive regulations that can change at anytime. My wife visited a plant there a few years ago. She said when she toured a factory the workers would put their heads down when she passed by with executives. If workers here start doing that then yes, America can bring production back.

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Felix_Mish

3 years ago

Reply to spa sidechats

Production will be brought back. Automated production. China and every other peoples of the world are going through that same process. People keep rising in value relative to machines.

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spa sidechats

3 years ago

Reply to Felix_Mish

You are still left with the same fundamental problem. People are needed to fix the automation when it breaks. Now who can fix it without health insurance, child care, free abortions, free college, paid vacations, paid holidays and man maternity? It is not the US. Why not just order new automation arm from from people who do not need all this welfare. Tell you what, just throw the old burger robot in the trash. Not worth it. Cambodia can make a brand new one for 75% less and have it here by next MON…meh.

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Felix_Mish

3 years ago

Reply to spa sidechats

Well, I’m not about to say that people won’t be needed, though automation repair, in particular, won’t use many people directly. But your thought of there being a fundamental problem is certainly heartening. That is, I agree that people will continue to be needed – more and more.

The whole history of the industrial revolution is that of people becoming more valuable compared to the things around them. People who are more valuable are, by definition, needed more. But that “more valuable” doesn’t come by magic. It’s driven by satisfaction of needs.

Now, as to what people will be doing to be more valuable? I don’t know. And neither does anyone else. (I guessed back in the early ’80’s, but my guess has not come to pass.)

So far as Cambodians, the world is quickly running out of people who aren’t worth health insurance, child care, abortions, college, etc. etc. The transition from easy-come, easy-go people to not-enough-people is the Earth’s story of 2010 to 2030. Fascinating to watch, given that it’s an event that will be marked on 10,000 year charts.

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hmk

3 years ago

Reply to Zardoz

I think the bigger problem is that there isn’t enough labor unless they lighten up on legal immigration policies. I don’t understand the reasoning by our political class at all. Anyone that is a law abiding citizen and is willing to work and PAY taxes should be welcomed in. This concept is lost to both parties.

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MarkraD

3 years ago

Reply to hmk

While I support rule of law, and I’m first to bitch about cultural/social/language differences with immigrants, it just seems insane the Fed’s raising rates as a result of labor shortages, while a large swath of Americans support spending billions on a wall instead.

God forbid we grant temporary citizenship (don’t get me started on the H1-B hypocrisy)

My Irish ancestors were greeted with “No Irish Need Apply” in the 1800’s, you’d think history taught us something.

.

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Matt3

3 years ago

Reply to MarkraD

How about increasing labor force participation? We have very low levels for males 55 -30. Why?

We need to let people know that working with your hands is not bad work. It’s to be celebrated and should be rewarded rather than looked down upon. Everyone can’t sit in a chair all day. We need to reward and value those that actually build things and repair things. We need more of people that do this.

Doing this will be inflationary but it’s what builds a solid middle class. We need to bring things back and build them here.

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MarkraD

3 years ago

Reply to Matt3

Men Age 25 to 54 participation rate was 89% as of September.

Not sure what you’re looking at.

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Avery

3 years ago

Reply to hmk

I’d admit every Asian teenager with a 36 ACT no prob with free ticket to mandatory admission to all the Ivies.

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MarkraD

3 years ago

Reply to Avery

That’s mighty white of you.

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A Dose of Reality 5

3 years ago

Reply to MPO45

Agree. To me it says rates may go higher than the fed is stating and stay higher longer.

Or there will be some manipulation of data or definitions as to what inflation is to sooth the market. Look no more inflation. Nothing to see here.

The problem will become apparent when long term 30 year bond rates start to spike.

Will we see 40 yr and 50 yr bonds in our lifetimes?

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hmk

3 years ago

Reply to MPO45

The trade sanctions that the US placed on Japan is what prompted them to attack pearl harbor. I am thinking Brandons sanctions on China will trigger them to invade Taiwan. Not saying if the sanctions in both cases were good/bad. Am wondering what the alternatives could be with China regarding semiconductors or with Japan prior to WW2.

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MarkraD

3 years ago

Reply to hmk

“I am thinking Brandons sanctions on China will trigger them to invade Taiwan”

Good point, maybe he should adopt Trump’s China policy, apparently China only threatened Taiwan after Biden reacted to China’s Taiwan threats…?

Did China react, maybe, to the Huawei ban in 2019?

FYI, China produces 25% of global chip supply, Taiwan is 65%….would it be a good idea to have China then control 90%?

.

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Salmo Trutta

3 years ago

The bond market has sold off in the last couple of trading days. The money stock can never be properly managed by any attempt to control the cost of credit.

The only tool, credit control
device, at the disposal of the monetary authority in a free capitalistic system
through which the volume of money can be properly controlled is legal
reserves. That’s how Volcker stopped inflation. He imposed required reserves against NOW accounts in April 1981.

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MarkraD

3 years ago

Reply to Salmo Trutta

“He imposed required reserves against NOW accounts in April 1981”

Something like this is appealing, especially in the post Glass-Steagall era, where it could also limit big bank prop desk speculation in commodities.

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Winston

3 years ago

Why would you want a yen hedged Japanese ETF? Wouldn’t you want unhedged?

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MarkraD

3 years ago

Reply to Winston

I’d guess that while the Yen is at decades low, we don’t know that it can’t keep plummeting, there are ETF’s that hold both Japanese yen and equities, this year they’re outperforming the SPX, but that’s not saying a lot, flat is better than down.

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Mish

3 years ago

Reply to Winston

Japan is far more likely than the US to have hyperinflation.

I rate the US at close to zero. Japan, don’t know.

But Japan is one of the few countries remaining that wants inflation. It’s likely to be massive when they get it.

But a mix of hedged and unhedged covers extra cases.

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