Here are some interesting Tweets on a variety of subjects worth discussing.
China Growth Sputters
Hoot of the Day on China Intervention
People tout this us as “China dumping treasuries” when the reason is they need to support the yuan.
Hot Day in Commercial Real Estate
Copper
Reflections on Cardboard Boxes
Ben Bernanke
More on Ben Bernanke
Soft Landing or No Landing?
Liquidity
Check Out DKI
All In
Cheapest Hedge Ever
“US stock bulls have grown so confident in the market that the cost of buying protection against a 5% dip in the next YEAR has fallen to what BofA strategist Ben Bowler is calling the ‘cheapest you likely have ever seen.’”
Yeah, we traded Ben, who did we get in return.
EV makers are moving to 48 volt systems. A 75% reduction in copper.
Marriot missing 415 mm payment is very interesting. The first crack in the hospitality juggernaut or is it bad management at Marriot?
Aptly picked.
Have to hand it to you today, Mish.
“Hot Day in Commercial Real Estate”
A lot of residential real estate also was bought with borrowed money with variable rates by large companies. With the market turning and with little possibility of seeing the Fed lower rates, we should start seeing distress selling in that market too.
And, with all of this wall of worry, the market is moving slowly to new highs. I thought a pause was coming a few weeks back, but did not get much of one. Now, it seems the sentiment (from what I have read) is saying the downturns coming in August and September. Will have to see which comes first a downturn or new highs?? It would be good for investors but also funny if it made new highs in both the Nasdaq and S&P first.
Meta closed Feb 2/3 2022 gap.
Ben Bowler chart : Aug/Sept might be red.
Vt is still accelerating through July. See: H.8 release
Stocks took off in Oct 22 when large CDs bottomed out.
Proxy: Large Time Deposits, All Commercial Banks (LTDACBM027NBOG) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)
As Dr. Philip George says:
“The velocity of money is a function of interest rates”
“Changes in velocity have nothing to do with the speed at which money moves from hand to hand but are entirely the result of movements between demand deposits and other kinds of deposits.”
N-gDp @ 4.7% in the 2nd qtr. is acceptable.
Regarding the economy; I continue to expect the economy to muddle along. I will leave it to others to discuss soft landings, no landings and crash landings. Regarding markets; I have been selling into strength lately, booking some profits and raising my cash position from 10%. Will continue this as long as markets keep going up, or until I hit 25% cash.
I continue to be heavily weighted towards oil and gas stocks. They have the lowest PE ratio of any market sector, while having the highest cash flow of any sector.
Regarding copper; it could rise in price as demand should remain strong for the rest of this decade. But I like oil and gas stocks more than copper stocks.