The betting markets are catching up to my prediction. 
Today, Democrat James Talarico passed Republican Ken Paxton in the Polymarket betting market for Texas Senate Election Winner.
The Republican nominee is Ken Paxton because Trump dumped Senator John Cornyn on a loyalty test for only backing Trump 99 percent of the time.
Republican chances were as high as 82 percent last year and 76 percent this year, now 48 percent.
Texas Senate Kalshi
This sudden shift in the markets directly mirrors a wave of recent polling:
- The Polling Surge: Four separate major polls released in early August show Talarico holding narrow leads within the margin of error. This includes a Fox News poll putting Talarico up 51% to 48%, and a Texas Pulse poll placing him ahead 47% to 43%.
- The Context: This massive tightening happened right after Paxton defeated incumbent John Cornyn in a divisive Republican runoff. The prediction markets are reacting to Paxton’s general election liabilities and Talarico’s massive $68.6 million fundraising haul. [
Even though Kalshi and Polymarket use completely different backend systems, their traders are absorbing the same frantic news cycle, resulting in similar razor-thin margins for a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic Senator since 1988.
A couple weeks ago I had odds of 55-45 for Talarico. The betting markets are catching up to my view.
I still think 55-45 is about right, perhaps 56-44 with the betting markets both nearly the same.
Both markets have Talarico simultaneously ahead for the first time today.
Kalshi Senate Odds
Polymarket Senate Odds
I will go with Polymarket here although the difference is miniscule.
Democrats have too many chances although they did not help themselves in Michigan.
Two Probable Democrat Pickups
Democrats are nearly certain to pickup a seat from Republicans in North Carolina after Trump drove Senator Tillis away. Democrats about 90 percent likely to take North Carolina according to Kalshi. I have North Carolina as safe Democrat.
Trump’s feuding with Maine Senator Sue Collins have hurt her chances. Democrats about 65 percent likely to take Maine according to Kalshi. That’s about right.
What Democrats Need to Do
Assuming Maine and North Carolina are in the bag, a reasonably safe assumption, Democrats need to hold Michigan and pick up two more seats from Texas, Iowa, Ohio, or Alaska.
All four are possible for a massive +6 for Democrats. That would reverse the Senate from 53-47 Republican to 53-47 Democrat.
My expectation is Democrats hold Michigan, and win at least two of Texas, Iowa, Ohio, or Alaska to win the Senate.
In Iowa, Senator Joni Ernst dropped out due to feuding with Trump. She would have been a heavy favorite.
Trump’s inane tariffs and war with Iran have cut agricultural exports to China, raised prices of diesel and fertilizer, and increased the cost of farm implements.
Farmers have no reason to vote for Trump, but they do anyway. My odds of an Iowa shocker for Democrats are 48 percent.
For similar reasons Ohio is going to be close. Kalshi has Ohio at 51 percent for Republicans. Polymarket has Ohio at 52-49 for Democrats.
I see Ohio more like 54-46 for Democrats.
Trump Really Screwed Up Politically
- Trump forced out Tillis, Cornyn, and Ernst.
- His feuding with Collins is likely the end of her.
Those are Senators that on average voted with Trump 90 percent of the time. But Trump wants full loyalty more than he wants to win.
Incessant bragging and lies don’t help. His focus on the ballroom, arch, ornate trimmings, and reflecting pool are all out of touch with what people want to see.
He is again making a mess with deportations. Support from interdependent and Hispanics has plunged.
The Hispanic vote alone might cost Republicans the state of Texas.
Trump Screwed Up Economically
- Tariffs are extremely unpopular.
- His trade wars have raised prices for small businesses and farmers.
- Deportations don’t help farmers.
- The war in Iran has been a disaster.
Looking Ahead
No one knows what is ahead.
But I see no good way out of the mess in Iran. And if there isn’t prices at the pump will stay high.
Housing is a disaster. Those looking to buy a home cannot afford one.
All the while Trump tells people what an amazing job he has done. This is the same mistake Biden made, but worse.
And a rate hike won’t help matters.
The are hike betting markets are 50-50 for September. It will depend on CPI and PCE inflation results.
A stock market plunge, also unknown, might kill any chance of a Trump win. That’s the only thing economically that Trump has going for him.
My 55-45 Democrat Senate call is on belief the path we are on won’t change. If it doesn’t call it 60-40 Democrats take the Senate.
Related Posts
August 9, 2026: Iran Toys with President Trump. Expect that to Continue Though the Election.
The MOU deal is off the table. Trump wants it back but Iran upped demands.
August 10, 2026: Are Hourly Earnings Rising Too Slowly to Cause Inflation?
That’s the claim by two prominent names. I respectfully disagree
August 11, 2026: US Fires on Panama Ship. Result Is Upward Pressure on the Price of Oil
Trump and Iran have blockaded each other. So who’s in control?
That’s an easy one, they are dumb. It explains a lot.
Do worry, Trump, Walrus, GOP, and democrats will find a way to make things even worse.™
As we approach the midterms, the odds of a Reichstag fire type of incident in the US increases dramaticaly.
While refreshing given his crooked opponent, I wouldn’t bet the bank on it. After all, morals, ethics and character are no longer in vogue with politics (assuming they once were that is a big assumption). Add politics to social media and you have the major contributors to many of our current ills.
Has America Already Undergone a Soft Breakup?
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/09/opinion/america-politics-blue-red-democrats-republicans.html?unlocked_article_code=1.4lA.zbX4.mWCBV4bvxJKH
Trump has made lots of mistakes in large part due to his ego and narcissism. However there may not be a blue wave due to how bad the Dems are. The Iowa farmer may not like Trumps mess but they can see the madness of Mamdani, Omar, AOC and the DSA. So even if their local candidate is a reasonable moderate the also know if the Dems take control it’s back to Somali fraud, open borders and men in girls lockers.
So it’s a case of smacking Trump at the cost of cutting your nose of or voting against the Dem madness at the cost of giving an ego boost to the Narcissist in Chief
the typical iowa farmer is an idiot. and also a welfare queen. they believed the apprentice was an actual documentary and not a BS television show.
Hey now, if you want ethanol in your gas and high fructose corn syrup in your food, you better thank an Iowa farmer.
ha ha. i forgot. they also produce poison they actually have the chutzpah to call food. i live in hudson valley surrounded by farms in same families for 200 and 300 years
No need to thank them, it’s their own survival pork. Over the years ethanol more than tripled farmland values if they wanted to cash out as many did.
i believe it was sarcasm directed at me.
VERY True.
The same type farmers in KS. I call it a “celebration of ignorance” – they are flat happy to be trailer types and not think more than 30 second stretches.
they also reside in south brooklyn. in usa, since the 1950s it’s ok to be ignorant and an idiot. one can survive. not so much in the 1930s or 1800s…….
All Democrats have to do is run on an American sovereignty platform. The Israel fatigue is through the roof.
They’ll have to get a waiver from their AIPAC sponsors to do that. That won’t happen.
Team D can run on whatever platform. Once they get elected, AIPAC will snap the leash and Team D will come to heel.
that is how it works. aipac stays out of primaries. you nailed it FF
AIPAC stays out of primaries? They spent millions to torpedo Thomas Massie. Here in MN the democrat primary to be the candidate for US Senate was between Congresswoman Angie Craig and Lt Governor Peggy Flanagan. Craig had millions spent on her behalf by AIPAC. Thankfully Flanagan crushed “AIPAC Angie”.
Israel fatigue is real. It’s also rarely voiced publicly because people are afraid of retribution by Zionists.
Just like Obama did
Can Texas manage not to elect a lazy eyed pedophile? Find out this November!
Talefreako is a kid toucher, so looks like either way is win-win for Texas
And your poof of this is where? Oh wait, you’re the other guy defending nazis and pedophiles. That makes a lot more sense!
That is shallow TOTALLY BS attack crap.
Stick to your own scum bags PROVEN FELLONY LIST. AND STILL COUNTING…, ask his ex,; or his adulteress.
I first learned about talarico from the Joe Rogan interview, and was very inpressed. That was last october I think. America could do a lot worse.
“Farmers have no reason to vote for Trump, but they do anyway.”
In recent history, I think fear and loathing of cartoon urban nonwhite communist, wrong-religion or no-religion hordes, could be easily roused, against more complex, fragmented, less mentally salient political-economic arguments. I thought the average Texan voter would, similarly, in the moment of ballot box truth, revert to deeply ingrained thoughts like that.
That’s easier to pull off when the economy is 1) putting up pretty good headline numbers, or 2) being reconsidered, as someone like Biden winds down.
But all that expectation was before the avalanche of everyday “in your face” economic factors Mish listed here. Then it becomes perhaps easier to reframe trouble, and who the troublemakers and bad guys to fear, are.
A flip of both Houses would make some interesting history!
At this point it’s becoming impossible to ignore that America is in a deep crisis either way. We have single states trying to set national (or in Texas’ attempts to govern the internet world) policy over others, an economy that makes no sense, and rule of law that is fleeting at best.
Even if Democrats do win in November, it is time to ask how we even begin to rebuild out of this pit. I don’t see it ending without significant fundamental changes to government and economy. We are disgusting right now.
Keep in mind that Team D is just as in the tank for Israel, and they like it when Trump does their dirty work.
From Talerico’s campaign website:
Take urgent action to support peace in the Middle East: Protect innocent life by stopping offensive weapons sales to the Netanyahu government while supporting defensive systems like the Iron Dome alongside agreements that American funds will not be used to harm civilians; use all of America’s financial and diplomatic leverage to secure a two-state solution that disarms Hamas, establishes a democratic Palestinian state, halts Israel’s illegal settlements, and respects the sovereignty of both nations; and promote long-term regional cooperation to defend American interests against adversaries like Iran.
Talerico does not accept money from AIPAC.
You can tell this is not a serious policy change by the words “the Netanyahu government”, which is an attempt to sneakily continue business as usual with Israel once Netanyahu is defeated in the upcoming Israeli election. If he is voted out, his successor will be even more fascistic than he is. Netanyahu is a moderate in Israel, and he is being attacked by his political opponents for being too soft and gentle in his genocide, war crimes, and daily killing of civilians.
The “two-state solution” language is the same rhetoric used for decades, but Israel is (and probably always has been) dead-set against it. The question is are any of these politicians actually going to stand up to Israel?
You might be correct. Talerico and all the others might also be as duplicitous as Trump. If you believe that there is no reason to bother voting. I think it is significant that he refused AIPAC money.
The zionist are quite prepared to create funding conduits that are zionist front organizations. And the Iron Dome system (to the extent that it works) encourages offensive actions.
The Iron Dome was not built to take out drones. The Israelis are wasting US taxpayer money shooting down tiny drones a million dollars a pop.
New wave Democrats will dump Israel because it’s a practical choice, no need for more reasoning than that even if it is ample. Despite Adolf Joe’s whines and cries about me being Jewish, I’ll gladly point out that Israel is part of what rightly got Joe and his pantsuited bitch slapped in 2024. Their voters (and anyone with a semblance of morality) hate Israel, including American Jews tired of being blamed for the behavior American Dems and Repubs both enabled with blank checks of voter money to a foreign country because of Jebus thumpers and Neolibs combining forces.
All Clinton era neolibs needed to be out of office pre-2024 and hopefully will be mostly pushed out by 2028 by the anti-AIPAC faction.
These newly-minted anti-zionist jews should have spoken up decades ago. They are like the blacks that you now see starting to call out unruly black behavior in restaurants, airplanes and cruise ships. Any outsider that did what they’re now doing would be called anti-semites and racists, respectfully. Things have gotten so out of control that no one cares about being called these names anymore.
They did, you just never heard them Grandpa. Oh so concerned and aware, but somehow not aware American Orthodox think Israel is an affront to biblical prophecy. Hmmm, and those respectable blacks. Couldn’t be the black president the GOP was calling a monkey could it? Or the MLK they now pretend they didn’t call a six letter word back when you were a kid? Lots of things missing from Grandpa’s memory today huh?
Democrats love them that sweet AIPAC cash.
It any more. Netanyahu has destroyed that.
israel won’t make it to their 100th birthday. they are a bitch colony and useful idiot of the amerikan empire. when we go broke we will retreat and let them go. the numbers of israelis leaving this year is off the charts. go long r/e in brooklyn and miami. i have many jew friends and family that despise zion.
Yer either on the bus or off the bus, kid.
But not taking AIPAC money isn’t enough either now so… why vote then? Just keep letting the billionares rape your kids I guess.
Team D likes disguising AIPAC contributions, while piously claiming not to accept AIPAC contributions.
https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/aipac-connie-chan-san-francisco-primary?utm_source=publication-search
We’re voting the AIPACS out. I voted one out today in the primary.
Team D is less in the tank for Israel as Oleg points out (from Talerico’s website). In the House, 210D’s and only 4 R’s joined forces pass a non-binding resolution to end the war on Iran. It was killed in the senate 49-47, with Susan Collins being the only Republican in favor of the resolution and John Fetterman being the only Democrat against it.
Admittedly, many dems only oppose Israel when it doesn’t matter, but they’re not “just as in the tank”.
Just more soothing rhetoric.
Keep in mind that Creamer is very semetic
That’s as good as you’ve got now? Calling random people Jews? Isn’t the /pol/ act tired Joe? Why don’t you go back there where your (Argentinian) kind is wanted.
I recently saw a you tube where AI was asked to pick between all major and some minor possible candidates for the 2028 presidential election. 7or 6 out of 8 AIs picked Josh Shapiro, the current D governor of PA. He is deep into support for Israel. As a progressive left person I could not vote for Shapiro, maybe I’d write in MISH.
Actually, we have cities determining what will be the norm for all. If there is civil war, the cities will not prevail. They will soon be starved of food, water, transportation and power by a determined foe. Look at the map of blue and red counties. I certainly do not want this. I live in a city and certainly enjoy all the comforts therein. I do not condone Texas’ move to control the direction of this nation for all. But, I also do not condone the cities of the country doing exactly the same. We are a Constitutional Republic for a reason and not a democracy. Our Republic yields power to minorities to insure unity. I am, incidentally, an old school liberal and hope that some wisdom can be mustered to unite us all for the future after this dreadful administration is hopefully unseated.
Ruralites won’t do shit when they’re outnumbered ten to one. They tried this the last civil war with the same exact logic, it got them steamrolled by the people with industry and population. Cotton can’t fight and, as polling shows, not even their own population is that interested. Go ahead and look at polls minus geezers too old to fight, you’re left with 20% of the population or so, less if you count only men. How many of them feel like dying for this? How many will travel to die for it?
Also, you should try to put together that a constitutional Republic IS a democracy before you tell people what you are and what you aren’t.
Trump WH Hatches Secret Plan To ‘Cover Up’ ‘Mountain Of Crimes’ If Dems Win Midterms
They already know they’re going to lose. All they can do now is try to control the damage.
https://zeteo.com/p/can-dems-stop-trump-from-epically
Luckily we have a pretty vigorous free press that has been digging stuff up. I have no trouble seeing more than ample grounds for impeachment. But yeah, there may be mountains we haven’t heard of.
Another question is what posts or other participants or activities might (along with the president, per SCOTUS’s recent ruling), be sheltered from criminal prosecution. Again, I have no problem immediately summoning to mind dozens of names. They will scream “lawfare” to the high heavens, but (as a onetime criminal and constitutional trial and appellate attorney, and history buff), I have never seen such a deluge of illegality connected to government. The law of governmental immunity will get a thorough working over.
Free press? That’s a good one!
Zeteo.com…you can’t be serious