A negotiated settlement, land for peace is what I said in 2022. Terms now include mineral rights.
Lost in a Hobbesian World
Eurointelligence notes the EU is Lost in a Hobbesian World
For a European, being isolated is probably the worst thing that can ever happen to you. Not getting invited to the Munich Security Conference would be an unrecoverable career setback. When Emmanuel Macron invited a few selected leaders to a summit a couple of weeks ago, the big debating point amongst EU folk was, who was invited and who was not. It was not about what the meeting should accomplish. Sitting at a table is really important to Europeans.
This is all fine for as you are dealing with relatively unimportant things, like financial regulation. But this is not the mindset with which you want to fight a war. We have yet to meet a European with a worked-out strategy to defeat Vladimir Putin. We are red-liners. We argue from first principles. We claim that we will support Ukraine for however long it takes. This idea worked spectacularly well for the ECB in the fight against speculators. But it does not translate to wars.
Ukraine has lost the war. We have no strategy to change this. Of all the nonsense Trump said and tweeted last week – and most of it was nonsense – he was correct on the essential issue – that the war is not winnable. He told us during his campaign that he wants to cut a deal.
The Europeans are in their unfortunate situation on the cats’ table of international diplomacy because they outsourced strategic thinking. The US acts, we react. Trump speaks. We are outraged. When Trump threatens tariffs, we threaten retaliation. Strategic thinking means making sacrifices, thinking ahead, factoring in what your opponent will do in response to your actions, have a strategy for second-best outcomes, and one for retreat and defeat.
In a world in which strategic thinking counts, the EU is hopelessly lost.
Delusions of Nonsense
CNN reports Zelensky says ready to quit if it brings peace, pushes back on US demand for Ukrainian minerals
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that he was “ready” to resign as leader if it meant it would bring peace to his country, suggesting he could swap it for NATO membership – while also pushing back against US demands for Ukraine’s critical minerals and other natural resources as part of negotiations to end the war.
Asked at a press conference Sunday if he was ready to quit if it ensures peace for Ukraine, Zelensky said: “If (it guarantees) peace for Ukraine, if you really need me to resign, I am ready. I can exchange it for NATO.”
Earlier this month, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said that Kyiv joining NATO was unrealistic, upending the alliance’s stated policy that Ukraine was on an “irreversible path” to membership.
The Ukrainian president’s remarks come amid an ongoing spat with US President Donald Trump, who has called Zelensky a “dictator” for not holding elections while Ukraine remains at war.
Zelensky on Sunday also pushed back against Trump’s demand for a $500 billion share of Ukraine’s deposits of rare earths and other minerals as part of a draft “deal” Trump said would reflect the amount of aid the US has provided to Ukraine during its war with Russia.
“I am not going to recognize $500 (billion),” Zelensky said during a press conference at a forum marking the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The US was one of Ukraine’s closest allies under the Biden administration, providing the country with tens of billions worth of military aid. But Trump has made it clear that he thinks the US should no longer send aid to Ukraine without getting anything in return.
Zelensky Pushes Back Against U.S. Mineral Deal and Announces European Summit
The New York Times reports Zelensky Pushes Back Against U.S. Mineral Deal and Announces European Summit
President Volodymyr Zelensky pushed back on Sunday against demands from the Trump administration for billions in Ukrainian natural resources and for holding peace talks that exclude Ukraine, while announcing plans for a major summit of European leaders on Monday.
Mr. Zelensky suggested that in assailing Ukraine, Mr. Trump had chosen the wrong adversary.
“If peace for Ukraine requires me to step down, I’m ready,” Mr. Zelensky said on the eve of the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion. “Another scenario: I could trade my position for NATO membership, if that’s what it takes,” he added.
Mr. Zelensky has said he will not accept any agreement negotiated between the United States and Russia without Ukraine’s participation.
“This is how we see this negotiation table: Ukraine as part of Europe, Europe, the United States and Russia. That’s approximately how we envision it,” he said.
Mr. Zelensky has been advised by European allies to tone down his confrontation with the American president. But on Sunday, he did not back away from his earlier comments and repeated his assertion that Mr. Trump is living in a disinformation bubble.
Mr. Zelensky’s pushback on Sunday could further anger Mr. Trump, who is pressing for a minerals deal and a peace agreement on terms he wants to dictate.
“I am not signing something that 10 generations of Ukrainians will have to repay,” Mr. Zelensky said, noting that negotiations would continue. Drawing on Ukraine’s revenue from natural resources, he said, it might take 250 years to pay $500 billion, which he called an unrealistic sum.
On Friday, the United States proposed a new draft agreement, obtained by The New York Times, which still lacked security guarantees for Ukraine and included even tougher financial terms. The new draft reiterated a U.S. demand that Ukraine relinquish half of its revenues from natural resource extraction, including minerals, gas and oil, as well as earnings from ports and other infrastructure.
Under the proposed terms, those revenues would be directed to a fund in which the United States would hold 100 percent financial interest, and Ukraine should contribute to the fund until it reaches $500 billion. That sum is more than twice the value of Ukraine’s economic output in 2021, before the war.
The agreement does not commit the United States to security guarantees for Ukraine, or promise further military support for Kyiv. The word “security” was even deleted from a formulation contained in a previous version of the deal, dated Feb. 14 and reviewed by The Times, which stated that both countries aimed to achieve “lasting peace and security in Ukraine.”
No, Yes, No, then Nonsense
Zelensky said no to a deal for minerals, then reportedly yes, then no again, and now nonsense about stepping down if the US will let Ukraine in NATO.
Heck, not even the EU wants Ukraine in NATO or the EU now because of the dollar commitment it would take.
And where is the EU going to get troops or weapons.
The EU announces a conference, fails to invite Trump, but Trump likely would not have gone anyway.
No Position to Make Demands
Neither the EU nor Zelensky is in a position to make demands. If Ukraine won’t give Trump mineral rights, perhaps Putin would.
The US will not let Ukraine in NATO, nor will Russia, and despite EU talk, the EU is not ready for that either.
Zelensky is driving for a bargain that neither the US nor Russia would accept.
When Zelensky pushed back, the terms offered by Trump got worse.
Questions of the Day
Q: Will the EU send troops?
A: No
Q: Will the EU give Ukraine enough weapons if the US drops support?
A: No
Q: Will the EU help rebuild Ukraine?
A: Perhaps a pittance
Q: Is there any point to a summit without Trump?
A: No
The EU wants to be at the table. Trump will make fun of table the EU set.
Negotiated Settlement
September 7, 2022: Q&A on Putin and Energy Price Caps, Does Anyone Have a Better Idea?
Two Good Ideas
- End the sanctions.
- Prepare for a negotiated settlement whether Ukraine likes it or not.
Instead, we are doing the opposite, compete with people suggesting there are no batter things to do than something that is downright asinine.
November 7, 2023: If the US Has a Goal in Ukraine or Israel, What the Hell Is It?
The US has already given Ukraine $75 billion. Biden wants another $100 billion for Ukraine and Israel. What exactly is the mission?
November 20, 2023: Is a NATO Backing a Negotiated Deal Between Ukraine and Russia?
What’s Guaranteed to Happen?
I have written about this many times before. There is going to be a negotiated settlement that is not going to fully please anyone.
When? It will happen after both sides have had enough of destruction and lives lost, likely accelerated by political events in the US.
February 16, 2025: Why is Trump Leading the Ukraine-Russia Peace Talks Without the EU?
Because 1) no one else has a plan, 2) Trump’s plan is likely to work, 3) the EU would screw it up.
The Goal and a Mission
Like it or not, we now have a goal and a mission. They are one and the same, end the war.
The war will end as I repeatedly stated since 2022, a negotiated settlement.
You can agree or disagree with Trump’s approach or the appeasement of Putin. But you cannot change the facts.
The longer Zelensky holds out the more territory Ukraine will lose.
Nobody but Putin was asking for peace. So why Donald Trump is now asking for peace as well? Don’t tell me he feels so bad about all the Russians and Ukrainians who died already. Putin is so weak that his soldiers should try to supply the front lines using donkeys, yes Donkeys! And this is not Ukrainian propaganda. You can watch it on pro-Russian telegram channels. Western satellite photos show that major tank storage areas in Russia were emptied during the last 3 years. Ukrainian soldiers destroyed less tanks recently, simply because they don’t meet enough of them anymore. Even Russians are supported with weapons, soldiers and equipment by N.-Korea and China, they are unable to make major progress. If they could continue the speed of last year it would take them decades to win over Ukraine. And last year was really not the best year for Ukraine, because of insufficient and unreliable support with weapons and ammo. This is not only a fault of the US. Major European countries should give more weapons and the US has the right to demand that. But I am wondering about the US. WWII was the last war the US were fighting until the very end. Trying to stop a war before it is finished means to lose that war. It is not the time now to make deals with Russia. After Russia is defeated it will be easy to make deals with them. A country with the GDP of Mexico that is using donkeys at war cannot be defeated only because it tries to frighten us with nukes? Putin is in an uncomfortable situation. He cannot frighten us with tanks and he knows that he cannot use his nukes. To say it clearly, it is not desirable for the free world to totally destroy Russia. Before Putin changed his mind there was even a chance to integrate Russia into the western world in the long term. A totally weak Russia cannot be our goal because it would open the door for China. China never was a real friend of Russia. China is waiting for the chance to regain large territories in the far east and maybe will try to get even more. The united free world is able to show Russia that it has no chance on Ukrainian soil, but also that we don’t want Russia to be eaten by China.
The Ukraine has been losing this war for at least 1.5 yrs. now as it moved from maneuver to WWI style trenches where Russian superiority in artillery and airpower began to grind the Ukrainian military down. Zelensky is now attempting to fill his “golden parachute” before he moves on and retires to his new multi-million $$ house in Ponte Vedra Beach, FL; just down the road from a smilier new house built for Nancy Pelosi.
Ukraine has lost this war but so has Russia. Trumps point is there are only loser and there are no winners. I think Trump is trying to save Russia from a worse fate and that is China.
One must think about this conflict as World War I with modern weapons. Trench warfare with soldiers going over the top. There have been approximately 1.5 million casualties and half a million dead. The once feared Russian military has lost most of its tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, artillery systems, air defense, helicopters, aircraft and black sea fleet. At the rate Russia is going they would need to suffer another 5 million casualties to get to Kiev.
On the other side, the west has only supplied Ukraine with enough second-tier and surplus weapons so they can beat back the Russian advance and not win. Most of the advanced systems have been severely restricted in their scope of use and in such quantity as to not tip the balance.
Here are some of the things the west could have done to stop the Russians:
1) Provide enough support to blow up the Kerch Bridge.
2) Close the Baltic Sea; there has certainly been enough anchor dragging.
3) Provide support to blow up the two railroad bridges that connect east and west Russia together.
4) Instead of pressuring Ukraine to invade Crimea they should have used lightly defended Russian territory and invaded the Donbass from the north and destroy the bridges over the Don River.
5) Stop oil and gas shipments.
6) Allow “former” military personnel to fly and maintain aircraft including the F-35.
7) Give Ukraine five to ten tactical nuclear weapons before the war started.
8) Let Poland out of Nato and let them make some noise on the Russian border.
9) Ete, ete.
The best thing I can say is Russia will never be a threat to anyone ever again in a conventional war. They are demographically, monetarily, intellectually drained. The real threat to them is having 100 million Chinese coming across the border. The best agreements are between equal parties that have more to lose than there is to gain. Putin stays in power and is not replaced by someone worse, and Kiev gets its future back.
Nonsense. This comment is delusional, stop reading fake news, like the UK media.
Your idiotic “strategies” would lead directly to nuclear WW3, and the end of life on earth.
Moron.
Nuclear war is what he wants. If asked he will tell you that the Russian nukes are ineffective because Russians lack the ability to keep them operational.
Sheer BS from brainwashed “Covid witness”…
I stated 3 years ago there was never any hope for Ukraine to defeat Russia, it was only ever a matter of how far NATO would force Russia to escalate.
Now the total defeat of the West is undeniable, and the brainless Eurotrash want to make it even worse. I encourage them to escalate, and make it even worse.
Now NATO is finished, and no one will miss it. One of the biggest own-goals in history.
Once again, I disagree with Mish – there will be no negotiated settlement; there will be a total defeat of Ukraine, and a surrender. Russia has withstood sanctions, has fairly easily handled every new wonder-weapon that NATO has thrown at them, is out-producing NATO in military eqpt and ammo, has developed the unstoppable Oreshnik, and is steadily winning the war. Why would they negotiate? They’ll keep fighting until they achieve the clearly-stated goals of the ‘SMO’.
I think the ‘mineral rights’ issue is a trap for Zel; concede and he can be portrayed as a sellout – now Ukrainian troops are basically fighting the US. Resist and Trump portrays him as uncooperative. In any case, are there any actual minerals? Have exploration companies got concessions, drilled, and proven economic deposits? Maybe, I haven’t heard, but if not, then minerals may be, at best, a rumour
There some promising results of something being there. They might even be economic to develop if subsequent drilling produces concrete results. After that all you have to do is extract and process whatever is there, find a way to transport the results and then, wait for it, find a market where your product is competitive.
Rare Earths are literally everywhere. What is extremely rare is
finding the right combinations in the right concentrations so as to be commercially worthwhile. That is the tricky part.
There are minerals in Ukraine, but about half of them are located in territories occupied by Russia. Who wants them has to regain these territories, or – maybe cheaper – negotiate with Russians who are already thinking to offer them.
Regarding the proposed mineral deal…IMHO it would be better for the US to procure Ukrainian minerals (or whatever) at market prices rather than to supply a security guarantee. The USA been in Europe for better than 8 decades providing defense for that region at who knows how many trillions of dollars expended. Bring our troops home and let the Europeans keep control of the military bases. Buy needed minerals on the open-market.
that only works, when the “open market” stays open. either you are naive or ill informed, the entire world is full of cartels that manipulate the prices of commodities. Oil is obvious, OPEC among others.
It matters not if there is an “open market” if you cannot afford the commodity, (being priced out)
or cannot access the commodity (goods are only sold to existing customers) Helium is currently in both these conditions.
There is no guarantee, Ukraine wouldn’t sell every ounce of rare earths to China, given Zelensky greed – without a military presence to guarantee his conduct “in good faith”.
Let’s say that the UKR gives the US mineral rights. US foreign policy now clearly signals that its about what’s in the US interest. If the US has 500 bn worth of mineral rights, isn’t it in the national interest to protect those minerals?
Remember Donald Rumsfeld and the umbrage taken at his descriptions of “old Europe” vs. “new Europe”? And the mavelous games of “I know that you know that I know …” with known unknowns, unknown unknowns etc. Good times.
Europe, old colonial power is still in delusional world of empire and want to make relevant to the modern day world. US exposed it all. It forms EU, NATO and perform group bullying tactics. The problem is EU can’t come out of its web nest and the nest will eventually collapse. EU of over 30 countries is stagnating for many years and fallen behind US and China. EU is only saved by US and EURO, reserve currency.
Europe, old colonial power is still dreaming delusional world of empire and wants to relevant in the modern day world. US exposed it all. They form EU, NATO and performing group bullying tactics. The problem is they can never come out of their nest and the nest will eventually collapse. Europe as a whole is stagnating for many years now fallen behind US and China. Europe is only saved by US and Euro, reserve currency.
Food is really good in many places.
Our biggest threat is from within. The Mexican cartel is all over the place. They are well equipped after Biden made the rich. They hate us and especially hate Trump. They have been colonized by James Polk, who made the US a Superstate, Their creed is to restore their national honor and get back territories they lost. They are willing to fight for it. The Mexican people became our slaves: the average salary is 11,000/year. Highly skilled industrial workers make $7/$8 per hour. The Mexican cartel bosses are billionaires. We import from Mexico more than China.
Mexico is our biggest national security threat, but first we have to recognize it.
MAMA,,,,,,,,,,Make America Mexico Again….
not sure that will fly. Too many, Mexicans realize their country is not less than optimum because it lacks northern territory – el notre- but instead lacks an efficient and honest government.
Why doesn’t Europe form their own little protection group that includes Ukraine? Oh, that’s right there will be no one to fund it now that Sucker Joe has left office.
Give Europe some credit. Only they know that words are more harmful than weapons. To prove it they are referring to potential peacekeeper troops as a “reassurance” force. 😜😜😜
Ukraine lost the war three years ago. Biden never figured it out either. Thank God we have a sensible president who is willing to take a stand to stop the death and destruction in and of Ukraine.
Couple of interesting headlines this afternoon over at ZeroHedge:
Europe Working On Plans To Send 30,000 Troops To Ukraine As Trump Talks Drawdown
and
In Three Years Of War, Almost 7 Million Ukrainians Have Fled
My impression from other articles has been that Ukraine has made it very difficult for people to exit. Those nearly 7 million may have a better grasp of the reality than the EU hacks.
Ukraine has made it difficult for men, especially fighting age men to leave.
Women, as usual, will take advantage of any opportunity for advancement, and have used their war refugee status to move into other countries and post on tik-tok/Trick-Talk, etc.
I myself have at least 17 Ukraine beauties who email me constantly assuring me of their undying love in exchange for american dollars and “help” relocating and “getting settled” – they are the new Nigerian officials who want to use my bank account to transfer millions and give me a slice of that pie in the sky.
The US are in no position to make demands of Russia either. The losing side never is. Capitulation is also an agreement.
an unbalance peace rarely lasts. an unfair agreement leads to further wars, it merely festers and explodes later.
a good negotiater realizes this and tries to get a balanced agreement.
Or the enemy is destroyed, like Germany and Japan were, resulting in lasting peace.
WWII was a direct result of a bad treaty for the end of WWI.
Destroying Germany and Japan, cost a lot of innocent lives, not to mention military lives.
you made my point for me, thank you very much
Are you that daft? You propose a mealy deal that could resemble WWI’s and I proposed a deal resembling WWII’s, but I made your point? I demonstrated how low your IQ is, that’s all.
Here’s a tweet from the US State Department. In it Rubio outlines 4 points regarding the capitulation to the Russians that he negotiated (a surrender negotiation I suppose,) after meeting with them in Saudi Arabia.
• Explore geopolitical and economic cooperation post-conflict
Why is the US treating Russia as if there’s some great advantage in partnering with them regarding geopolitical and economic topics. Russia is a 3rd rate country with a declining birth rate and a huge brain drain that primarily offers the world natural resources (in a world awash in natural resources.) We (meaning the US, don’t know about where the rest of you are from,) are throwing over actual partnering allies with capitalistic economies we trade with to our mutual benefit(s) for this dump of a country that has so little going for it they have to rely on North Korea for material and cannon fodder. The headlong rush by Trump and his minions to toss all our other international relationships in the dumpster and embrace Putin is insane.
https://x.com/StateDept/status/1893180786045788317
This is ignorant nonsense. Russia is the fourth largest economy in the world on a PPP basis. They have massive deposits of mineral wealth and are a key oil producing country. They are the co-leaders of the BRICS alliance and a strategic partner with China. Europe is dead without access to inexpensive Russian gas. Of course it makes sense to normalize relations with Russia.
Thanks for making my point. Russia is nothing but a natural resource producer. AI? Nope. Genetics? Nope. Chip making? Nope. Pharmaceuticals? Nope. Robotics? Nope. Agriculture? Nope. Pretty much nope across the board except for Oil, gas and some minerals.
Why do you think Russian soldiers were looting toilets and washing machines from Ukraine, not because Russia produces better (or even has,) either of those things.
What we have here is a natural resource colony of Europe acting up in a bad way because of fevered cold-war dreams and Aleksandr Dugin’s attempts to paint a path to continued Russian relevance. And you know if you don’t discipline naughty children you get more bad behavior.
<<<<<Agriculture? Nope.<<<<< Wacko alert!
Europe, China, Korea, Japan and the U.S. have declining birth rates. The US papered over the birth rate with immigration, and Europe tried to, but it didn’t work out very well.
Europe needs a new set of colonies to asset strip to hold their countries together a little longer. That was supposed to be Russia, but it turned out they objected.
the US overextended its empire and has to choose between immediate retreat which might not be enough to hold off an economic collapse, or riding the empire into the ground. See The Rise and Fall of Great Powers by Paul Kennedy.
“Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that he was “ready” to resign as leader…” BECAUSE HE HAS FILLED HIS COFFERS WITH ENOUGH STOLEN LOOT From the War.
One question would be whether anyone seriously thinks Putin would honor any agreement that acknowledged Ukraine’s right to self determination or would even enter into an agreement that made that statement. Any deal made now is just a pause for the Russians to refresh men and equipment prior to resuming their war of conquest.
The largest weapon in this war is propaganda, and you’ve been hit. I suggest finding other sources. Here’s one to consider – https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/ukraine/ny-post-joins-cnn-msnbc-with-propaganda-and-fake-news/.
Russia is saying the same thing about trusting the west after years of broken promises not to advance NATO eastward to the Russian border.
Russia has never indicated it favors or will accept Ukrainian self determination as you define it. In fact, that is what the war is all about.
Russia will not let the current regime lead Ukraine into a NATO alliance however that alliance is structured nor build up an army large enough to threaten Russia. They have never said anything different. They have said from the outset they will fight as hard as they can for as long as they can to prevent it.
NATO gladly accepted the challenge thinking about Russia the way you do. They found out the hard way that they were wrong. Now NATO is desperate to find a way out without admitting they were catastrophically wrong but without getting their hands dirty. Getting their hands dirty was supposed to the role of the U.S. but there is a new sheriff in town in America so that option is rapidly disappearing.
Fun Fact: NATO wants everyone to believe that sending in a force of thirty thousand light infantry into a battle field with a half million combatants to make a big difference is *not* a big joke.
Ukraine hasn’t lost the war. In two years, the Russians have taken the Crimea and a couple of eastern provinces. For that, they’ve lost 400,000 men and most of their tanks and other tracked vehicles. Every time the Russians try to advance deeper into the Ukraine they get their ass handed to them. If you want to end the war, the agreement is simple: Russia leaves all Ukrainian territory, and NATO agrees to never allow Ukraine to join or host NATO forces.
I think you meant to say in 11 years Russia has managed to take Crimea and a couple of provinces.
You fail to understand that the Crimea and the far eastern Ukraine is all Russia needs for strategic and economic needs.
They never wanted to take over Europe.
Totally unrealistic. Russia controls the region of Ukraine that produced 75% of Ukrainian GNP. Russia is steadily advancing westward. They have zero reason to leave.
and abide by the Minsk Agreement, which permits the Donbas to vote on leaving the most corrupt country in Europe. You must know that Russia could’ve taken all of Ukraine if it wanted, which was obvious because they never went after the infrastructure. They were simply coming to the aid of the Russians in eastern Ukraine who were attached by the Ukrainian Nazi’s on orders from the Neocons because they had the audacity to want to separate from NATO lovers in Ukraine.
I think Victor Davis Hanson has eloquently presented and hashed out the pros, cons, and likely outcomes in this conflict. Ukraine cannot defeat Russia on the battlefield due to a number of issues, the most salient of which are manpower, industrial might and basically the Russian tendency to dig in and fight to the last man, or North Korean. Ukraine just doesn’t have the population to prevail, therefore there will be a settlement eventually. I think the sooner the better. The waste of human life is tragic and wasteful in the extreme.
Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhye and Kherson oblasts are now part of Russia. They will never be returned. Russia has not lost 400,000 men. Barely 1/4 of that. Media Zona has kept a careful tally, and they’re a Russia opposition group funded by the West and run out of Latvia. You probably think the Ukraine’s losses have been smaller than Russia’s, too. Ukie media propaganda paid for by the US and regurgitated on US media for American dolts.
Ukraine survived HOLODOMOR 1932-33 ! STALIN ! CHERNOBY! and hold couple months of Russians Invasion and still fight !
You have no idea what kind patriots and fighters left in Ukraine !
Ukraine will survive and sooner or later be part of the Europe ! It’s hard to fight when the biggest ally stab you in the back and selling you for money.. money.. money !
this Putin paper divided USA and is dreaming to a first AMERICAN DICTATOR ! congratulations with your choice too !
May be Ukraine lost a battle NOT A WAR that has been with Russians for last 500 years ! but at least the whole world found out about true democracy supporters !
It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal.’ — Henry Kissinger. America is no one’s friend.
It’s fatal to be friends with them.
Taiwan- take note, Americans will sell you out too !
I’m hesitant to give you a down vote because it’s possible your comments are satirical. If so, nice job.
No one likes feeling used, but you must recognize it was the Neocons that used Zelensky (not the American people), and it was Zelensky who sold out the Ukrainian people. It’s very sad what has happened to the Ukrainian people, but they permitted the Azov battalion to remain relevant. If the US would’ve aloud Biden/Harris to remain in office, we would also be sunk. The anti-establishment is winning in other countries, but unfortunately, the Ukrainian people did not fight back against their corrupt establishment, and the result will be Ukraine will no longer exist by the end of the decade.
Ukraine will always exists as long as it is necessary in some way,shape, or form. Many things we have names for, no longer resemble that which they were originally named for “The British Empire” for instance.
Egypt was once a might nation feared around the Meditterian, not so much now.
Ukraine may become a Vassal or simply a “region” but there will always be a Ukraine, even if only in memories, like Atlantis.
You said one thing I agree with: “ Taiwan take note”. The US cannot perpetually prevent Taiwan’s reincorporation into China. It’s a small island off the coast of China, while we’re on the other side of the world. Taipei always acknowledged that they were part of China. They just claimed to be the legitimate government of all of China, not Beijing. We don’t have to like it, but it is what it is.
The Neocon objective was never for Ukraine to win the war, as that was an absurd thought from the beginning. The objective was to use Ukraine as cannon fodder to weaken Russia, and they new Zelensky would gladly sacrifice every last soul, as long as he gets his 30 pieces of silver (and a penthouse in Miami Beach). Someone else will pick up where Ukraine leaves off in order to continue to weaken Russia and/or force them to retaliate against a NATO country though some false flag.
Trump can fire as many Generals as he wants, but it won’t stop the endless propaganda coming from the mouths of Neocons, like Gen Jack Keane and others parading across the airwaves. FOX and the NY Post have now completely removed their sheep’s clothing, proving they also have a price.
The next big war is between the citizens of the world and the fraudsters of the world (establishment, Neocons, WEF, etc), who believe they can once again pit countries against each other to mask their complicit corruption and hand them more perks and power when the dust settles. The Germany citizens are just the latest of the silent majority, which will continue to grow as the Nutjobs are forced to get more totalitarian.
If the Europeans want to seppuku themselves in Kyiv, that’s on them. Let those loud pro-war voices be heard at the front lines. Let’s see how excited they are to continue this war fighting alongside middle aged men forced to pick up a gun.
So did the EU, and they haven’t figured that out yet either…
Within Themselves
Ukrainians lost the war the day it started. Zelensky and his supporters (including some US congressman) have become very rich. But they only temporarily win, until DOGE exposes them.
Now the world knows the 21st centuries conventional weapon capabilities.
Apparently, the new defensive posture is for every country/region/sect to have a nuclear deterrence.
My defensive posture advice?
Love and hold your children close today. Time is short.
Why would Ukraine be different than say Afghanistan? Ukraine certainly has the ability to field guerrilla forces that could harry Russia for many years, until they eventually got tired or Putin died and then the country retreated.
Ukrainians are Slavic and many are ethnically Russian. Zero comparison to Afghans.
It’s become abundantly clear that every nation on earth that doesn’t want to be bullied or invaded by the three amigos: U.S., China, or Russia needs to start investing in nukes. Canada, Greenland, and heck even Palestine should start building nukes right away.
They don’t need to build 1000 warheads, just two or three that can cut off the head of the snake when the time comes.
And since neither Trump nor Putin seem to be interested in honoring treaties or agreements, it’s everyone for themselves.
History has ALWAYS been like this. Are you just now noticing?
Strong always ends up bullying the weak in the end. The only question is how long before it happens (ie how soon resources get scarce).
Most nations signed onto the nuclear proliferation treaty, it’s time to tear that thing up.
I don’t recall the U.S. threatening to invade and “own” three countries in my lifetime, that’s what’s changed.
True, the US never threatened invasion. They just did it (Vietnam, Iraqx2, Libya, Afghanistan, Grenada) assuming you are old enough for all these to be in your lifetime.
Also true that the US never ‘owned’ those countries. But they did install puppet regimes in all the ones they managed to conquer. Not quite the same as making them into the 51st state but infinitely easier to control the local population when you install a puppet regime.
And where would all those countries acquire the materials and expertise to build ballistic nukes?
It was believed that only two countries would never allow deep penetrating arms on their border. Turns out it was actually three. The only thing left to do now is make it official.
Ukraine should be the first chapter in a book entitled why you shouldn’t give up your nuclear weapons
No reason why they can’t start back up.
Besides money, materials, and expertise?
The nukes didn’t belong to them, and they had no choice in having the “old” USSR in taking the weapons back.
No different than saying Germany “owns” the US nuclear arsenal simply because they are stationed there.
The Ukraine never had nuclear weapons. The USSR stationed some in the Ukrainian Soviet Republic, but the Kremlin has their codes, not Kiev.
Most minerals are in the Russian side of Ukraine. They need a lot of investment.
That’s what negotiations with Putin is all about right now.
Who do you think that the Ukraine lost to? Russia doesn’t have to negotiate anything.
Chihuahua Theory
Ever noticed that small dogs you could easily kick across the street act out the most aggressively and arrogantly, as if to compensate their total lack of stature and fearsome fangs? It’s the Jack Daniels, schnauzers, and chihuahuas that mount the greatest displays of ferocious barking, savagely tenacious. But it only engenders indifferent amusement in larger creatures.
International politics is the same. The most Russo-antagonistic states are countries like Estonia & Lithuania. Second order fanatics are Britain & the Netherlands. The big dogs like France & Germany are somewhat more measured. And only the US and Russia are completely calm, admitting that the war has been lost and a fight to the death (nuclear armageddon) is for dumbies.
AfD figured that Ukraine lost the war a long time ago. They are pro Putin and against NATO and Zelensky. The Berlin wall blocked people from moving out and in. Today Germany is exposed from every direction from 9 land borders. The risk is from within: EuroArabia. The AfD isn’t planning to exterminate Jews and 25/30 millions non German foreign descendants. They want to limit the foreign invaders holidays and celebrations. They want to rule the crate people with an iron fist.
To make a market reference, in a falling market the faster one takes their loss the smaller that loss is. He who exits first keeps the most. Well, they’ve waited too long, lost as they were always destined to do, and if they want to have anything left they’ll get to the negotiating table to try to save as much as they can. They have to catch the falling knife.
Many commenters on the blog just think there is some other outcome, like, we just need Russia to give up all the land and go back and we’ll just put this here border right where it was and, oh, we might even want NATO here or US troops or EU troops (if they had any or the political/economic will to create any). We’ll just say, “well, that wasn’t so good”, and pretend it never happened. Ha
There will be a negotiated settlement. It will be skewed towards Russia keeping most of the territory. Ukraine will not be in NATO. But the dying and wasting of resources will be over. Could have ended long ago with real Washington leadership, the very leadership the lefties and EU folks (same thing) make fun of….yet it’s only with that leadership there will be an end. The real peacekeeper is at the helm now. War is profitable for some but peace gives opportunity to all.
So I ask again, do you want peace or not? Going back to the prewar boundaries is a non-starter, a never-was-gonna-be type non-starter. Stomping feet and saying it’s not right won’t change a darn thing. Wishing this didn’t happen is also a waste of time/resources.
Mish has this one nailed down and has for some time. If polymarket had odds on “negotiated settlement, most land retained by Russia, Ukraine not in NATO” I’m guessing he’d have cleaned up taking all the money from many commenters here. Once this started and went on longer than a month this was always going to be the outcome, but we had to have unnecessary death and destruction first I guess.
Europe doesn’t have any cards. They could have had some cards but three years into the war and Europe’s defense budgets have hardly moved upwards. Their acts have not followed their rhetoric and the result is that they are out of the decision-making and incapable of influencing the outcome.
Now that everybody expects the war to end we have yet to hear from Putin so it’s not over till the fat lady sings.
Macron looks shaken. Trump read him the riot act.
New German leader is talking tough. Europe needs to stand on its own two legs w/o the support of the US. Time to terminate all the feel good living Europe has been used to.
Yes!! They must suffer!
Correct. The sooner it begins, the better.
Swine that they are!
Great thoughts Mish.
Trump is not and never was a politician – dont expect him to talk like one now.
Remember Obama let Russia have the Crimea without much push back.
Biden told Ukraine a “MINOR” invasion of Ukraine was acceptable. (Jan 19,2022)
A Neville Chamberlain redux? Consider the axis that has strongly solidified between Russia, China, Iran and North Korea over the last 3 years (plus a few days prior to invasion). Sucking up to Putin will not break that. But Putin will take everything offered on a platter by the USA anyway. Giving up the fight is surrender, which Trump is asking for. This will not work as planned.
Lord Halifax, too.
Acknowledging reality is not sucking up to Putin. Recklessly calling for the fighting to continue is cowardice unless you are enlisting to go fight on the frontlines yourself.
Sanctions can go on. Guerrilla, ambushes and bomb attacks against russians can continue indefinitely. Ukraine is no lost.
Petain signed a “peace agreement” with Hitler, but De Gaulle, definitely not.
And if not for the U.S. entering the war, De Gaulle would be a forgotten denier of reality. He and his few followers couldn’t have won France’s freedom. None of the allies liked him or his typical French arrogance, and if not for the U.S. charity, the U.S.S.R. would’ve froze him out of all wartime and postwar diplomacy.
If USA walks away from Europe now we will see just that. I don’t think Trump is looking very far into the future to be honest. But, can’t judge that before this negotiation is done.
Sanctions are damaging Europe far more than Russia. Guerilla attacks are just an invitation for Russia to take more of Ukraine.
1729 A Modest Proposal 2.0 … With the US administration leaving NATO and negotiating directly with Russia (like it earlier did with the Taliban), Europe (and Canada) can now reasonably sell 500 billion of their 3.3 trillion dollars of held US debt to buy deliverable nuclear weapons and maybe another 100-200 billion dollars worth of drones as a deterrent against further Russian territorial USSR-rebuild acquisitions. Maybe Musk can even win the ED weapons contract, a win win for all parties involved.
Trump is trolling Zelensky with the minerals deal.
Zelensky was the one who twice dangled the natural resources before NATO in the hope of getting more aid (the West is out of military means). Trump picked up on it and is using it as an excuse to get out of Biden’s war and present Zelensky as defiant and unreasonable. Like a cat plays with a mouse.
The minerals are not there. There is more gold dissolved in the oceans than all the gold ever mined, but there’s no profitable way to get it. The same is true of UA purported mineral wealth — where it’s economically viable, there are already leases and mines.
Shouldn’t Zelensky agree to the minerals deal? If he gets enough US industrial involvement, doesn’t that provide security against the Russians? If I’m Zelensky, I would stipulate that x number of mines have to be in far eastern Ukraine within 5 years.
Z promised mineral rights in now Russian territory. Has there been viable mineral deposits in eastern Ukraine, the Soviets would have developed them.
It takes quite a while to open up a mine, dig the materials out and purify them. If Zelenski were smart, he would slow walk the startup operation with the hope that Trump would no longer be President when the first shipment was ready.
But even were Zelenski to agree to this deal in return for a continued supply of US weapons (difficult to believe that Trump would accept this as he wants to protect Putin and Russia), it would be years before the first batch of minerals were shipped.
From the beginning, Zelensky’s only hope was to instigate a war between Russia and NATO. The proxy war happened and is ongoing, but the hot war did/has not. With the US stopping the gravy train, the European countries have taken up the NATO war banner. It is truly amazing that Starmer, Macron, and other European NATO neocons are even considering sending troops. Surely the public sentiment for this in their respective countries is overwhelmingly negative!
But Starmer has stressed that the force won’t work without American military might to back it up.
The US has lost the war. The Ukraine at least has preserved some of its territory, when the chances predicted the whole country would be invaded. This is a day that shall live in infamy for the the US.
The war was never about the Ukraine joining NATO. It was about reababsorbing the Ukraine into the Russian federation.
The war was about the US instigating a proxy war. It was about the Azov neo Nazi battalion committing genocide against ethnic Russian nationals where the current war theater is. Its about the CIA instigating a coup to overthrow a corrupt pro Russian president and installing a corrupt pro US president. NATO was a well know redline for the Russians and FJB basically gave Putin the finger. The US would have responded the same way as the Russians. Probably worse. Bush senior promised the Russians NATO would never expand eastward after the Soviet Union dissolved. Both Ukraine and Russia are rated in the top 20 worldwide for political corruption. The Ukrainian politicians enriched themselves with FJB’s billions. How evil and pathetic. All those innocent people lost their lives for a preventable reason. Those responsible for this should roast in hell for eternity .
The US doesn’t care outside of some warmongers. No one I know in the US cares one whit about what kind of terms Ukraine gets etc. They just want to stop sending tax payer money there. There is no infamy in what’s happening in the least.
On the other hard you are correct about absorbing Ukraine into Russia. But not all of it, only the Eastern parts where there are native Russian people. Even Putin wants nothing to do with the Western Ukrainians who would be more trouble than they are worth.
We didn’t lose… we betrayed an ally and fled. BIG DIFFERENCE!
No. Recognizing reality and stopping senseless death is not a betrayal.
Now the decline of the USA is spelled out clearly. Other countries will move on.
Why is Ukraine our ally?
Actually we know very clearly and definitively.
The policy wonks have stated it in infinitely painful detail, and no less than Secr of Defense Austen restated it: To weaken Russia; the strategic defeat of Russia.
There are papers dating back more than a decade with plans to lure Russia into conflict with Ukraine (in 2013 plans leaked into the public domain about the redevelopment of Sebastopol). These plans detail steps, risks, contingencies, and correspond amazingly well with what has happened. The ultimate aim is to push Russia into a Vietnam situation, regime change in Moscow, and ultimately devolution of the Russian Federation in smaller more manageable (for Western oligarchs) units.
Having UA in NATO or NATO in UA (since decades, but especially since 2015) was their surefire way to provoke a war. That is why it’s always called ‘brutal, unprovoked, full-scale’ war. All lies: not full scale (Kiev never bombed, liked Belgrado or Baghdad or Aleppo); decades of policy papers about how to provoke this war; not particularly brutal, almost impossibly low civilian:military casualty ratios in comparison to US and NATO wars.
Trump and Putin voted against Ukraine in the UN.
Ukraine voted against Ukraine when they elected the coke head as imperial commander of Ukraine.
I’d think he would have taken the ride out of town if he was such a schmuck. You couldn’t pay me *any* amount of money to be on Putin’s enemies list, full stop.
The Myrotvorets list is no joke either.
They have figured it out but that narrative is not the one in service of their globalist wef and other masters
Current “leadership” in the EU is the most worthless bunch of miscreants in European history
Worthless evil human beings
I wrote in my bangpath substack today that Trump should throw Macron and Starmer out on their ears. It is time to end the Special Relationship, or at least until they wake the f up in Britain
Don’t be too hard on the EU elite. They did everything as they were told by the US elite. They’re good vassals. The problem is that when the suzerain is run down, it feasts off the vassals.
Utterly tragic the loss of life in this war when it could have been settled shortly after it started at worst. It must end.
Could have been settled before it started, with 2 words: No Nato
Along with allowing the Eastern areas (Russian speaking) to be semi-autonomous.
IMO signing the deal won’t help. Trump will be happy to get money from Zelensky or from Putin, whoever controls the land. He has made it very clear that his only concern is money here.
Not sure why Ukraine would sign something giving away $500B without some significant commitment from the US (ie boots on the ground or something close to it).
Libs like you would rather feed another few hundred k into the meat grinder than admit Trump is forcing an end to the War.
My own politics have zero bearing on the situation. In Ukraine’s shoes, I wouldn’t sign a deal giving away an amount that is 2.5x my ENTIRE GDP unless it was going to guarantee survival as a free state/people.
Otherwise might as well fight to the death or flee west, since that’s the likely result anyway in a deal that makes no such guarantees.
You can sign up Walt! They need bodies. You seem to not give a shit about that. What future do dead people have?
They should just ask Russia if they can still take Russia’s 2024 deal where they evacuate from the four newly-Russian oblasts and forswear NATO membership. Sign the surrender docs. They would probably keep more minerals, oil and gas than if they hand it over to the US.
Exactly, how dare Trump try to end a war with no end.
Democrats now the Party of Liz Cheney. No joke
She transitioned. It’s no longer Liz but Leon.
Well either Ukraine pays 500 billion (I suspect it would already be bargained down to 100-200 range if Zelensky would shut his mouth and accept the deal) and it takes 20 generations or the US tax payer does and WE pay for it over 20 generations.
Now, who would you prefer to pay for Ukraine over the next 20 generations. US taxpayers or Ukrainians?
I know who I prefer to pay.
1. In the future, when Trump is a memory, a new administration would probably cancel any such agreement out of embarrassment.
2. Riffing on Trump’s past examples of treaty breaking, Ukraine could simply break whatever agreement Ukraine is forced to sign claiming they signed under duress.
Yeah, that’s a fair point. What’s good for the goose, and all.
Shit, they should offer to pay off the entire US national debt, or offer him 500 septillion, or whatever. Make minimal effort to pay anything at all, then renege later once he’s out of office or dead.