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Ukraine Says Major Escalation Probability is Low, US Says Russia Will Attack

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84 comments on Ukraine Says Major Escalation Probability is Low, US Says Russia Will Attack

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Kamala Harris at Munich Security Conference, image from YouTube Video. 

Decision to Attack

CNN reports “US Defense Secretary says it’s apparent Russia has made a decision and is moving into position to conduct an attack.”

Probability of Major Escalation With Russia Is Low

Ukraine’s Defense Minister, via US News and World reports Estimates Probability of Major Escalation With Russia as Low

“Our intelligence sees every move that could pose a potential threat to Ukraine. We estimate the probability of a large-scale escalation as low,” Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov told parliament on Friday.

Propaganda Wars 

There is no reason to believe either of these stories. 

Both sides have reasons to lie. 

Biden wants to be a hero to defuse the crisis and Ukraine does not want to create panic.

Russian Proxies in Eastern Ukraine Mobilize Troops, Kill Two Ukrainian Soldiers

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reports Russian Proxies in Eastern Ukraine Mobilize Troops, Kill Two Ukrainian Soldiers

The Russian-led breakaway regions of eastern Ukraine mobilized able-bodied men against what they said was an imminent attack by Kyiv, as shelling across the front line intensified, killing two Ukrainian soldiers.

Kyiv dismissed the call-up and moves to evacuate civilian residents of Russian-held Donetsk and Luhansk areas to Russia as a provocation. “It’s a fake mobilization in response to a fake threat,” said Ukrainian Interior Minister Denys Monastyrski, who came under shelling near the front line on Saturday. “What they are trying to do is to create panic and fear, also on our side and among our people.”

Russian-installed authorities in Donetsk and Luhansk on Friday night instructed the areas’ women, children and elderly to leave for Russia, organizing convoys of buses. On Saturday, Denis Pushilin, head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, ordered the general mobilization of men between 18 and 55 years old, including reservists, telling them to report to enlistment offices. Men of that age were banned from leaving the enclave.

Ukraine denies it has any plans to recapture by force the parts of Donetsk and Luhansk that Russian-backed forces seized in 2014. President Biden has said that he expected his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to invade Ukraine in the coming days, with targets including the Ukrainian capital.

Russia is evacuating its citizens from eastern Ukraine.

The US effectively says I told you so. But Ukraine calls it a “fake mobilization in response to a fake threat.”

Credit the WSJ for covering both ideas. 

Groundhog Day Update

Unprecedented Response 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZESHRRVIRsA

In an attempt to look useful, Vice President Kamala Harris warns Russia of ‘significant and unprecedented economic costs’ if Russia invades Ukraine. 

Speaking at the Munich Security Conference on Saturday, she said the US and its allies will levy huge economic and financial sanctions on Russia – and its allies who aid a Ukrainian invasion – if military action is taken.

How Severe and Unprecedented?

Not very. 

Understanding the Problem

“Nothing to do with that Stacy. It’s all about Germany. Russia is a huge trading partner and Germany objects.”

Low Grade Soap Opera

Germany will not stop trade with Russia, agree to cutoff Russia from the SWIFT payment system, or shut down the Nord Stream II pipeline with Russia.  

Thanks to former Chancellor Angela Merkel shutting down nuclear reactors to appease the Green Party, Germany is totally dependent on Russian natural gas. 

The US has mostly idle threats that add up to a low-grade soap opera. Kamala Harris is now leading the charge. 

Meanwhile, I am still unconvinced a major escalation is coming. Perhaps it does, but there is still no reason to believe US hype over repeated Ukrainian downplays of the threat.

This post originated on MishTalk.Com.

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Ron Cataldi
Ron Cataldi
2 years ago
“Meanwhile, I am still unconvinced a major escalation is coming. Perhaps it does, but there is still no reason to believe US hype over repeated Ukrainian downplays of the threat.”
Womp womp. Biden gave you clear, accurate information, but you’re cynical and a permabear so you didn’t listen.  Will you continue posting your content on ZeroHedge, with their ties to Russian intel?
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Robbyrob
Robbyrob
2 years ago
What it’s like having the Russian army around?
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Webej
Webej
2 years ago
Reply to  Robbyrob
Yeah yeah
Just like Manila, Okinawa, Thailand, and Ramstein.
It’s never pleasant for the locals to have an army around visiting.
But whining about Covid, nature conservation, and teen-agers with hormones kind of paints a self-portrait.
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Robbyrob
Robbyrob
2 years ago
El Salvador’s GDP grew double digits for the first time in its history in 2021
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honestcreditguy
honestcreditguy
2 years ago
Putin is long $NATGAS
Biden team is Long $NATGAS
War talk-excellent bros!
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blacklisted
blacklisted
2 years ago
The West is begging Putin to invade to get the needed distraction from their fraudulent and totalitarian response to populism (Canada being the latest example). Therefore, they are doing exactly what they hope will invoke a response from Putting.
BTW, Merkel was in that first graduating class from the WEF’s Young Leadership brainwashing, along with Bill Gates. Yes, this is the same brainwashing class that produced Trudeau, Macron, Mark Zuckerberg, Pete Buttigieg and Tulsi Gabbard – yea, Tulsi Gabbard.
Go ahead, look them all up here – 
Other former board members of the WEF have been stregically placed in key positions by Schwab, including:
– Christine Lagarde, former head of the IMF, and now President of the ECB (European Central Bank).
– Ersula von der Leyen, President of the EU (European Union)
– Kristina Georgieva-Kinova, head of the IMF (International Monetary Fund)
Other disciples of the WEF are the leaders of New Zealand, Argentina, and Italy.  Not only is Trudeau captured by the WEF, but so is 50% of Canada’s cabinet.  You can listen to Schwab boast how he has penetrated so many world cabinets (now you know why the Canadian truckers are so pissed) – link to youtu.be.
Fauci and John Kerry have participated in infomercials for the WEF’s Great Reset agenda. Build Back Better was initiated by the WEF in 2019, and used as the motto for many countries. I know, it’s hard to believe that Sleepy Joe did not invent BBB.  
Hundreds of the world’s biggest companies that attend the WEF’s yearly Davos meetings have thrown in with this sick agenda, including: Amazon, BofA, BlackRock, Blackstone, Bloomberg, Citibank, Ecolab, Facebook/Meta, Goldman Sachs, Google, Merck, Microsoft, Pfizer, Qualcomm, SAP, Softbank, Travelers, Verizon, Walmart, etc., etc. The strategy of large corporations is not to compete, but to eliminate the competition – usually through arduous and expensive regulations. Coronodoom was intended to destroy the competition (small businesses) though lockdowns and expensive covid processes. Wake up America!
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az_dirt
az_dirt
2 years ago
Reply to  blacklisted
Hmm, none of this explains why Putin is willing to go along with what the west is begging him to do.   Or maybe the west is not begging, maybe Putin is thinking he can get away with it like he got away with invading Eastern Ukraine.  
btw, the crisis actors in Canada are funded by Ziklag and are there to create chaos.
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honestcreditguy
honestcreditguy
2 years ago
Reply to  az_dirt
u do understand we put the current regime in Ukraine back in 2014…who was working for Ukraine gas companies? 
It all goes back to potus, they need to cover up the filth the created over there. Clinton Obama Blinken Biden were all part of it….
Get real, any half brained person can see what this is about, next up yellow cake or something
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FromBrussels
FromBrussels
2 years ago
Reply to  honestcreditguy
Maybe he(az dirt) never knew what was going on in 2014, but even then it is obvious  people’s short term memory is very short lived, CNN fans’ in particular , even half a brain would be sufficient to understand a situation, half a cell on the other hand …..
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Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
2 years ago
Reply to  blacklisted
Sadly, some readers here will never acknowledge the existence of the Bilderberg ‘syndicate’ and its goal for World domination.
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Webej
Webej
2 years ago
Reply to  blacklisted
Your link has been excised.
Here is the piece of video I think you’re alluding to:
The problem is not so much that these young global leaders are being brain-washed, but they are being selected and promoted through an old boys network type club that also engenders a high degree of mutual loyalty and group think.
In the Netherlands it turns out that the prime ministers (also an alum) was actually receiving letters about the Covid response from the WEF.
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Webej
Webej
2 years ago
Reply to  blacklisted
[My reply is being sent to the moderator, which in this forum means >dev/null
Your link no longer works
Here is the piece of video I think you’re alluding to:
rumble-dot-com /vtfrxk
These young global leaders are not so much being brain-washed, as being selected and promoted through an old boys network type club that also fosters mutual loyalty and group-think.
In the Netherlands it turns out that Rutte (prime ministers; also an alum) was actually receiving letters about the Covid response from the WEF.
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az_dirt
az_dirt
2 years ago
The US is making more of an issue about the Russian invasion threat because that’s how we attempt to create some doubt in minds of Putin and Associates about the cost of invading.  The same with the weapon shipments over the last couple of months.  If we did nothing it would be like when we failed to react to Sadam’s comments about invading Kuwait.  Perhaps it will be enough, perhaps not. 
Ukraine downplays the idea of invasion because they don’t want to provoke Putin (may be too late for that.)   It’s like the breakfast of ham and egg.  The chicken is involved, the pig is committed. 
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Dutoit
Dutoit
2 years ago
Reply to  az_dirt
I think that there is no invasion threat at all. But rather an attempt to create an intervention of Russia, for exemple to protect civilians in Donetsk and Lugansk, that would be a justification of sanctions  whose unique purpose is to break the links between Germany and Russia. They will try something else to break the links between Germany and China.
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Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
2 years ago
Let’s imagine that Russia is denied access to Swift, since it is clearly being hinted at. What then? Does Russia accept payment for its oil and arms in Euros? Or in gold? Now, that might be a game changer, particularly if China jumps onboard and requires payment for its exports in gold.  And it might not be that hard to arrange, perhaps using Swiss banks as the intermediary.
Perhaps the Biden Administration needs to think CRITICALLY before it acts.
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Scooot
Scooot
2 years ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
Might be wrong but I don’t think they’d be able to trade Euros, or any currencies for that matter, without access to swift. I suspect Russia has a plan. Seeing as no currency wants to be held hostage to the Swift system I wonder whether it might be the beginning of the end for it. 
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Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
2 years ago
Reply to  Scooot
A better question is why would Russia want Euros in the first place? It’s in virtually the same faux position as the US dollar. My point is sanctions can backfire by destroying the ‘petrodollar.’ Even the threat would be enough for Biden to soak his Depends.
Both Russia and China have been hoarding gold for some time. Got to wonder why ,especially  in Russia’s case.
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Webej
Webej
2 years ago
Reply to  Scooot
If they are cut out of Swift, Europe will not be able to pay and they would be shooting themselves in the foot.
Europe is going to miss the gas way more than Russia will miss the Euro’s.
People forget that energy is not some consumer item, but the basis of the entire economy.
Europe would be turning itself into a refugee camp with humanitarian suffering.
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Dutoit
Dutoit
2 years ago
There is not one Ukraine but at least two. The eastern part (in particular Donetsk and Lugansk republics) are in fact russian. They have never been anything but russian, their language, their history). The western part is completely different. It was not in USSR until 1945, and during several years after that, their was a guerilla warfare here against communism, that was even praised by Soljenitsyn in the Gulag Archipelago. And between, the two things are mixed. I think that Russia would not have problems to occupy the eastern part.
Anyway I don’t think that Russia wants it. But I am sure that USA wants an intervention of russian army inside Ukrain. The real goal is to have a justification to impose sanctions that would break the links between Russia and Europe. The present US nightmare is a block Germany-Russia-China. They will try anything to separate Germany from Russia first, and then from China. I don’t think Germans will let this happen.
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Doug78
Doug78
2 years ago
Reply to  Dutoit
I think France should take over the French-speaking areas of Belgium and Switzerland because, well they are French-speaking. Additionally France has historical claims to parts of the Piedmont area of Italy which until recently spoke French and were ripped from their native language by Italification by the Italian government. Since we are into redrawing borders wouldn’t you agree?
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Dutoit
Dutoit
2 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
I don’t think that the french language is prohibited in Belgium or Switzerland.
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Doug78
Doug78
2 years ago
Reply to  Dutoit
We are not talking about what people want but what is good for the greatness of France and how to reconstitute the Empire lost at Waterloo. France needs a sphere of influence around it just like the Russians do and for the same reasons.
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Webej
Webej
2 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
You forget that 80% of Russian boys born in 1923 were dead by 1945.
The Russians have been subject to Western interventions for centuries, always catastophic and genocidal.
When Putin mentions June 22 in addressing the Russian nation, he is reminding them of the solemn vow that the next war will not again be fought on Russian soil. 
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az_dirt
az_dirt
2 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
The Germans should take over German-speaking Lorraine again.  It’s only fair. 
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Dutoit
Dutoit
2 years ago
Reply to  az_dirt
The main thing is what people want.
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FromBrussels
FromBrussels
2 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
What a fn silly remark, but then  again that s exactly what one might expect from a acultural Yank avant la lettre !   As far as Belgium is concerned, and for the time being , the Flemish are paying Wallonia’s considerable deficits, and the dutch language is not compulsory, while russian is officially forbidden by the Nazi regime in Ukraine,  so I really don’t think Wallonia wants to be part of La France…..   
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Scooot
Scooot
2 years ago

I don’t think there’s any going back now, they’ve assessed the consequences and made up their minds, it’s just a matter of time. Hope I’m wrong.

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Doug78
Doug78
2 years ago
Alea Iacta Est.
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Webej
Webej
2 years ago
It’s not about the Ukraine.
It’s about Europe: The US is trying to defend its toehold on the Eurasian continent, an existential challenge to remain the boss of the world.
It’s an attempt to get the Europeans to rally to NATO and America as their big Daddy.
What Germany or France want doesn’t matter. They are not geopolitical players but pawns.
Nor does the Ukraine matter: Putin doesn’t want it, or he would have taken it already.
America is willing to sacrifice Ukraine down to the last Ukrainian to make Russia the aggressor and rally the European poodles.
America is willing to sacrifice the European economy, which will enter secular decline and humanitarian despair without energy.
The experts drawing maps with arrows about how Russia would go about conquering Ukraine all miss a key point: The entire Ukrainian army (150,000) are massed on the Line of Contact with the DonBas, pitched to invade. Russia could easily surround them from the back and destroy the entire army, without going to Kyiv or anywhere else.
Why does everybody miss that point? Because they think Ukraine are the good peaceful guys, and fail to see the aggression, threat, and constant shelling of civilians in urban areas in the LDNR. The West has played footloose with UN Sec Resolution 2202 and the Minsk accords, which are treated as non-existent. Ukraine has passed laws banning the Russian language, in March 2020 declared war on Crimea and the DonBas in the Rada, and has written NATO membership into their constitution, and failed to implement even an inch of the Minsk accords. Just like the West they played footloose, as did the West with the promises not to expand NATO eastwards and keep pressing into Russian ‘space’.
The Russians have a sacred vow that the next war with the West will not take place on their own soil: They need a neutral buffer zone in Europe to avoid repeats of catastrophic past Western ‘interventions’. Now they have the gear, their patience has worn thin at the propaganda stunts and antics, and they want the US and its NATO hobby poodles out of its backyard. The West keeps addressing them like a school master would a wayward pupil, but forgets that they have no means to stand up to the Russians.
Putin has already discounted the loss of Swift and any remaining trade with the West before launching his two treaty proposals.
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az_dirt
az_dirt
2 years ago
Reply to  Webej
So the Ukranians have no say in the matter and it is their bad luck to have been born in a Russian Buffer Zone®.
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FromBrussels
FromBrussels
2 years ago
Reply to  az_dirt
sh it happens don’t it ? 
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Webej
Webej
2 years ago
Reply to  az_dirt
They don’t have to go Nazi and commit suicide.
They could implement Minsk and keep their borders, develop their society and economy with cheaper than normal Russian gas, and simply remain neutral … aspire to becoming like Switzerland or Sweden.
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Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
2 years ago
Reply to  Webej
I think Pretend-President Biden is so out of it, he has no idea what is going on. His VP is an idiot, who knows her time is limited. They’ll boot her after the mid-terms if not sooner.
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Christoball
Christoball
2 years ago
Every time the Russians moved operatives into one of our Mexican country neighbors, the US got pretty upset. Cuba 1962, Nicaraguan Revolution 1979, Guatemalan Revolution, Salvadoran Civil War 1979, Dominican Republic…..The Ukraine is Russia’s Southern Mexican County neighbor and they are likely concerned about NATO in their back yard.  My Shrink calls it Passive Aggression. Russia has come a long way since the Czars and Khrushchev. Let Putin be Putin. No more wars over hackle demonstrations. Bear in mind that the root word of Demonstration is Demon.
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Jackula
Jackula
2 years ago
Reply to  Christoball
The Chinese are quite deep already: El Salvador, Brazil, the social worker’s paradise Venezuela, and Costa Rica.
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jtc1101
jtc1101
2 years ago
Folks, a few key points are missing from the narrative.  Russia may have 200k soldiers adjacent to Ukraine, but this insufficient for anything serious.  They could conquer and destroy, but not hold – not enough boots on the ground. Consider in WW2, Germany invaded Poland (about the same population, but half the size) with 1.5 million troops.  200k troops wouldn’t be enough to capture the urban areas.  Besiege them instead?  Sure, until NATO does a humanitarian “Berlin Airlift” in.  Also, we are now approaching the absolute worst time for offensive actions in these former Soviet republics – rasputitsa – a season of mud.  It stopped Hitler and Napoleon.  
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Jojo
Jojo
2 years ago
Reply to  jtc1101
Zelensky makes an excellent point – WHY haven’t sanctions been imposed on Russia already?  Give them a taste of the prong.
———
A defiant Zelenskiy promises Ukraine will defend itself ‘with or without’ allies
At Munich Security Conference, Ukrainian president chides Western powers for not doing more to protect his country and punish Russia.
February 19, 2022 10:39 pm
MUNICH — With his country under threat of imminent attack by Russia, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy received a standing ovation at the annual Munich Security Conference on Saturday — and then bit the hands that applauded him in a scathing speech that slammed Western allies for not doing enough to punish Moscow and move his nation toward the safety of Western integration.
Without naming names, Zelenskiy took jabs at Germany for hesitating to send weapons and offering helmets instead. He also threw shade at the United States for refusing to impose immediate sanctions on the Kremlin for threatening Ukraine, which is now nearly surrounded by more than 100,000 Russian troops and sophisticated weaponry.
“We are going to protect our country with or without the support of our partners,” Zelenskiy said, before referencing Germany’s donation of 5,000 helmets.
On sanctions, he asked: “What are you waiting for? We don’t need sanctions after bombardment happens, after we have no borders, no economy. Why would we need those sanctions then?”
But Zelenskiy’s most caustic words were directed at Moscow, which he accused of lying and plotting to destroy Ukraine.
“Ukraine wants peace; Europe wants peace; the whole world says it doesn’t want war; and Russia claims it doesn’t want to intervene,” he said derisively. “Someone of us is lying.”
….
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Christoball
Christoball
2 years ago
Reply to  jtc1101
I am sure that Stalingrad is taught well in the Russian Art of War guru school.
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Webej
Webej
2 years ago
Reply to  jtc1101
The satellite photos prove nothing, and those 100 to 200 thousand troops somewhere between 150 and 450 km in areas contiguous to Ukraine borders prove nothing … Canada’s whole army is in a swathe 150km from the US border … those troops need to be somewhere at all times, and European Russia is the most populous part of the country. Do you think they keep 900,000 service men in a cave in the Urals?
The German invasion is not comparable, technology has changed … it’s all stand-off weapons and networked artillery, not infantry.
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SmokeyIX
SmokeyIX
2 years ago
Reply to  jtc1101
One thing that stopped Hitler too was that the Germans grossly underestimated the amount of manpower they’d encounter.   The Germans were exactly right that the Soviets had 150 army divisions in the western USSR.  But the Germans thought the Soviets could field only 50 more.  Two months into Barbarossa the Soviets had already fielded 360 divisions.  The Germans killed and captured millions of Soviet troops in cauldron battles in 1941, yet when you look at the strength of the Red Army year by year, the manpower continued to increase.  Whereas the Germans losing 300,000 guys (50,000 of them Ukrainian) at Stalingrad was catastrophic. 
The Pentagon always paints the most optimistic scenario and no longer has any credibility.  I’d take their estimates and opinions with a grain of salt. 
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RonJ
RonJ
2 years ago
” …Soap Opera”
We don’t know what is going on behind closed doors. The Durham investigation is now exposing some of the previous unknowns. Who knows how long it will be before we know some of the past and current unknowns of the situation surrounding Ukraine?
These leaders and governments are playing with our commoner lives for their benefit. Allegedly, 700,000 people in the Ukraine disputed zone have been told to evacuate to Russia. This upends their lives. Trying to overthrow Assad upended millions of lives in Syria, eventually creating a refugee mess in the EU, that has upended the lives of some of the citizens in those countries.
In WW1, half the men of military age in France were killed or wounded. For what? It is maybe more complex, but the precipitating event was the death of just 2 people, Arch Duke Ferdinand and his wife, by a Serbian activist. Something like 16 million died in the war that followed, which precipitated a larger war that killed some 40 million.

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Christoball
Christoball
2 years ago
Reply to  RonJ
The Sandbox Spring did not go well. Neither will the Borscht Spring. They need to have some sort of Hippie festival along the border to Quash this sort of thing.
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TCW
TCW
2 years ago
The fact they’re actually using Kamala makes this seem like a contrived press op.  I’m sure she’s got Putin shaking in his shoes.
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Jackula
Jackula
2 years ago
Reply to  TCW
Trying to show she is presidential material to the military industrial complex. Yeah right, not!
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OldGuy
OldGuy
2 years ago
Mish this story has been going on now for 8 years.  This administration needs something, anything to look strong and decisive when our inflation is out of control.  Shortages they continue to blame on corporations when it is politicians and their illegal conro virus edicts causing the problems.  Heck even Californians are sick to the crap and protesting.  Too much money in the system and   this administration wants to hand out even more free money.
Disagree with the media and the left and you may well wind up in trouble.  I have been here a long time and seldom post but this administration may well start a war we cannot finish.  I love this country but China will join the fight and nukes may well be exchanged  scary indeed.
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Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
2 years ago
“And let me clear, I can say with absolute certainty,… blah blah blah.”
And to think over 81 million people voted for Kamala.
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FooFooFed
FooFooFed
2 years ago
The real crime is we are as we have been for 1000’s of years psychologically. Calling ourselves civilized and then going off to kill each other. The general human condition is pathetic. If there are aliens, they certainly are laughing at our lack of progress. It is no measure of health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society.
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Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
2 years ago
Reply to  FooFooFed
Your presumptuous assumption is aliens do not kill each other.
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Doug78
Doug78
2 years ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab

You just answered the Fermi Paradox.

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Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
2 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
Actually, it’s a comment on Darwinian evolution, and the tendency of higher-order species to assume they know every thing, and that their values are the only values.
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Doug78
Doug78
2 years ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
I agree. My cat makes it clear to all that its values are the only ones that matter.
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Carl_R
Carl_R
2 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
I thought that the answer to the Fermi Paradox was gain of function research.
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jhrodd
jhrodd
2 years ago
Reply to  Carl_R
That’s the final solution, actually.
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Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
2 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
The problem with the Fermi Paradox is the failure to expand assumptions beyond what is known. For example, inherent in Fermi’s estimate, is an assumption that all ‘lifeforms’ require environments similar to Earth. No carbon, hydrogen, and oxygen; no life.
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RonJ
RonJ
2 years ago
Reply to  FooFooFed
Safe and effective.
Human nature never really changes. Even though only 10 years apart, people chased the Nikkei bubble, then chased the Nasdaq bubble, then chased the housing bubble, then chased the everything bubble.
One would think that people would have learned the lesson somewhere along the way. But Bill Murray keeps waking up to Groundhog day over and over again.
People are happy during booms and unhappy during busts. In the Great Depression, WW1 vets suffering from the bad economy, marched on Washington, over a promised war bonus. The then current army was sent in to breakup their camp.
There is an old adage that when goods don’t cross borders, armies do. Up and coming empires are a threat to old declining empire. So round and round it goes.
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Carl_R
Carl_R
2 years ago
In the end only one thing matters, and that is what actually happens. Russia either will invade, or they won’t.
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Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
2 years ago
Reply to  Carl_R
From the preparation I would say they invade. 
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goldguy
goldguy
2 years ago
This appears to be what is really happening
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Carl_R
Carl_R
2 years ago
Reply to  goldguy
Thanks for that link. Indeed, it appears that a false flag operation is beginning. I would like to hope that this all amounts to nothing, but it is starting to look like Russia might actually invade.
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Doug78
Doug78
2 years ago
Perhaps you should mention that every country in Nato is saying that Russia is highly likely to invade Ukraine and and most except for Germany have sent lethal arms in extremis to that country. You believe that it is just posturing by Biden but I doubt that the others in Nato would be following Biden’s posturing if they themselves were not worried. All these countries have their own intelligence services telling them the same thing. This is not brinkmanship. It’s the real thing.
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Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
2 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
Wasn’t NATO also a firm believer in Iraq’s WMDs? Group think is alive and well in the intelligence services.
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Doug78
Doug78
2 years ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
Yes they were thanks to Bush and Cheney telling them so. That lie did a lot of damage to our reputation. The result was that the other countries double check before believing anything we say. Of course other countries lie to us also. In the Ukraine case the other intelligence services concord with our estimations.
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Eddie_T
Eddie_T
2 years ago
To me, I see Putin having taken Crimea with no real repercussions ( I don’t consider the sanctions to be a significant deterrent) , and now I see a very large percentage of his armies literally surrounding the rest of Ukraine and making what look a a whole lot like last minute preparations for an invasion.
I don’t buy the argument that NATO represents a threat to Russia. Even if all the former Soviet bloc border states were to join NATO, where is the evidence that NATO was ever any kind of aggressor against Russia (or in fact anybody at all)?   
In 1990, had NATO wished to do so, Russia could’ve been brought to its knees and forced into becoming a vassal state to Europe. But there has never been anything particularly scary about NATO. Putin just sees it as weak and he wants to make it weaker.  
The most interesting aspect would be what happens if Putin does take Ukraine. I think it might prove to be a terrible misstep for him, but NATO is such a split and ineffective coalition these days I could be wrong.  
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Doug78
Doug78
2 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T
Nato is surprisingly unified on this. Germany is less so but Germany’s armed forces have atrophied so much that they are a joke so they have little to offer to defend Europe except access to bases and they are doing that. Russia’s actions has been a very cold shower for the European countries. They are all planing to increase defense spending by good amounts now.
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TexasTim65
TexasTim65
2 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T
Technically since the US is part (the major part) of NATO, any US aggression is in fact NATO aggression.
You obviously know US aggression has taken place in Iraq, Syria, Libya in the last 20 years (Afghanistan was justified due to 9/11 even though staying for 20 years was not). In the mid 90’s NATO was in the Balkans during the split up of Yugoslavia.
The US has continued to put military bases, missiles etc into former Eastern European countries as they’ve expanded NATO eastward. That can also be counted as aggression.
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Eddie_T
Eddie_T
2 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
If it weren’t for Putin’s saber rattling, NATO would disintegrate over time for lack of a threat. As it is, alliances and geopolitical interests in Europe have largely already shifted. Germany needs Russian gas and Russian markets for its export based economy. To a lesser extent, so do may other countries in the EU.  The US is tired of carrying all the freight for NATO. We no longer have the money to burn, and we aren’t getting that much bang for our buck. Putin is the only real reason for NATO to exist, and the Eastern European countries that are clamoring to be part of NATO understand Putin and that’s why they want our protection. They need it.
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jtc1101
jtc1101
2 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T
Please recall that Russia had asked to join NATO long ago.  They were rejected because the US needs no counter-balance in an alliance to keep at its behest.
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Eddie_T
Eddie_T
2 years ago
Reply to  jtc1101
Russia asked to join NATO in 1954. At that time half of the US congress thought there was a communist under every rock and behind every tree. The mistake was not to welcome Russia in, in 1990-91, before a ruthless dictator/criminal Godfather took the helm.
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Webej
Webej
2 years ago
Reply to  jtc1101
And in 2001
It has been made clear with all the sanctions and propaganda antics and the expansion of NATO (Serbia, or being the air force for ISIS, Chechnya terrorist support) that the US is not acting in good faith.
There is no room to include Russia in any security architecture, so Russia will create its own.
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whirlaway
whirlaway
2 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T
” Putin is the only real reason for NATO to exist …”

Putin is the excuse for NATO to expand the Empire…

There.  Fixed it for ya.

You are welcome!   

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Webej
Webej
2 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T
You forget that the 2014 ploy in Ukraine was mainly a plan to get hold of Sebastopol and the Black Sea fleet.
In 2014, for the first time since WW2, ethnic Russians were being killed (in Crimea, Odessa, DonBas) as a direct result of Western interventions, in league with actual fascists (Azov, Bandera, mercenaries, Yats, swastika’s and all).
The whole point of NATO expansion (contrary to solemn promises) is not to strengthen NATO, but to contain and dismember Russia.
Russians remember well what Western advisers brought about in Russia in the 1990’s.
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jtc1101
jtc1101
2 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T

Just like the Cuban missile crisis, nukes are too close for comfort.  A hypersonic missile can go from Romania to Moscow in 5 minutes – was it a flock of geese?  reflection off a satellite?  Also, with implementation of super-fuze technology, the US military considers first-strike capability a possibility.  Yeah, hypersonics are too fast, but they are perfectly still until launched.

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Webej
Webej
2 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T
You have obviously forgotten bombing Serbia and redrawing the border with Kosovo, which took place when the Soviet Union was falling apart.
How about Syria, Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan where NATO joined in to commit war crimes?
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goldguy
goldguy
2 years ago
What a complete bunch of BS. Where can one find honest reporting?
The truckers in Canada are terrorist,
Covid vax works,
The fed is going to increase interest rates…one could go on and on
I don’t believe any of it….
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cindylouwho
cindylouwho
2 years ago
Reply to  goldguy
You don’t believe any of it because you only pay attention to alt-right, racist, bigoted garbage. Which is what you are. A piece of garbage. I have watched many like you die because you don’t believe  in the vaccine. I used to pity people like you. Now I’m simply tired of you. So tired of all your stupid garbage. 
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goldguy
goldguy
2 years ago
Reply to  cindylouwho
Having a bad day? I’m giving you the opportunity to work on your patience. You need to change your handle to karenlouwho, would be more appropriate.
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Christoball
Christoball
2 years ago
Reply to  cindylouwho
80% of Covid deaths are Baby Boomers. Baby Boomers are going to die of something. There are over 5,000 Baby Boomers a day dying of gluttony or natural causes and are either looking up or looking down “choose
this day whom you will serve”….. From here on out Expect 500,000 to one million extra deaths a year with or without Covid. It is baked in the cake of demographics
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Carl_R
Carl_R
2 years ago
Reply to  Christoball
Umm, I presume you know that “expected deaths” are computed based on demographics, so any computations of “excess deaths” are deaths in excess of those that would be predicted based on demographics.
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Christoball
Christoball
2 years ago
Reply to  Carl_R
I said extra deaths not excess deaths. Baby Boomers are called such because there was a Boom in births. 75-90 years after the start of the Baby Boom there will be a Boom in deaths. “From here on out Expect 500,000 to one million extra deaths a year with
or without Covid. It is baked in the cake of demographics.” My findings are based on total deaths per year which are, and will be quite solid numbers. 2020 was the start of this trend.
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SmokeyIX
SmokeyIX
2 years ago
Reply to  cindylouwho
I’m fully vaxxed, but it gets old hearing and reading accusations of racism where none exist.  He didn’t say anything racist.  You’re saying he’s garbage for being unvaccinated when the least vaccinated racial demographic in the USA is blacks, so we can conclude that you believe blacks are the most garbage demographic in the US.  Plus, leftists elected Biden, knowing and not caring that he has the blood of hundreds of thousands of innocent Arab children, men, and women on his hands.    
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blacklisted
blacklisted
2 years ago
Reply to  cindylouwho
You may benefit from the lessons of KGB defector, Yuri Bezmenov  – link to armstrongeconomics.com.
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thimk
thimk
2 years ago
Biden quick to defend the borders of Ukraine , but allows USA border to become porous/unsecured. 
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Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear
2 years ago
Joe Biden, the boy who cried “Bear!” to divert voter’s attention from the path of destruction he has created in his first year as POTUS.
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Jojo
Jojo
2 years ago
Reply to  Six000mileyear
Why is Biden now less popular than Trump? He’s earned it.
‘Lower than Trump’ is hardly the first year result the White House expected.
James S. Robbins  |  Opinion contributor
play
President Joe Biden is now so unpopular that he has fallen a bit below even Donald Trump’s dismal showing at this point in his presidency.
Real Clear Politics average of presidential approval polls has Biden at 41% approval and 53% disapproval. Trump’s corresponding 2018 approval number edges Biden at 41.4%, with disapproval at 53.9%.
How did it come to this? Biden started out with much higher approval than Trump, who was hampered in his first year by the false Russian collusion narrative and highly negative news coverage. But by the start of Trump’s second year, his numbers began slowly to improve; Biden’s have continued to sink. Now those converging lines have crossed.
“Lower than Trump” is hardly the first year result the White House expected. Biden received the most popular votes of anyone elected to the presidency. “Working class Joe” ran as a moderate who would restore sanity to Washington and move Americans forward together. He used the word “unity” eight times in his inaugural address.
But then came the bait and switch. In office, Biden veered to the left, pursuing a “big and bold” progressive legislative agenda. Things looked good at first; Biden’s honeymoon period of robust poll numbers stretched into July.
Mistakes began to pile up
….
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