The housing trends remain flat to down: starts, permits, completions, and sales.
September 2026 New Residential Construction
The monthly New Residential Construction report for September 2026 shows a decline in starts and permits, but a rise in completions.
Housing Starts
- Privately-owned housing starts in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,221,000.
- This is 5.2 percent (±11.8 percent) below the revised August estimate of 1,288,000 and is 7.4 percent (±11.5 percent) below the September 2025 rate of 1,319,000.
- Single-family housing starts in September were at a rate of 859,000; this is 4.6 percent (±10.0 percent) below the revised August figure of 900,000. The September rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 349,000.
Building Permits
- Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,400,000.
- This is 0.2 percent below the revised August rate of 1,403,000 and is 3.0 percent below the September 2025 rate of 1,444,000.
- Single-family authorizations in September were at a rate of 845,000; this is 4.0 percent below the revised August figure of 880,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 503,000 in September.
Housing Completions
- Privately-owned housing completions in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,192,000.
- This is 2.2 percent (±10.8 percent) above the revised August estimate of 1,166,000, but is 14.0 percent (±11.1 percent) below the September 2025 rate of 1,386,000.
- Single-family housing completions in September were at a rate of 840,000; this is 2.4 percent (±10.8 percent)below the revised August rate of 861,000. The September rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 339,000.
Note the margins of error on single-family housing starts ±11.5 percent.
Single Family vs Multi-Family
Single Family vs Multi-Family Details SA in Thousands
- Total: 1,221
- Single Family: 859
- Multi-Family: 362
Housing Permits
The Covid permit rebound was sharp, in two phases, culminating at 1.923 million in January 2021.
That was followed by a slump to 1.398 million permits in December of 2022.
Since February of 2023, it’s been a meander to nowhere.
You cannot start what isn’t permitted.
Housing Completions
The wave of completions surged 1.7 million units in August of 2024.
Conventional wisdom was the surge in completions would lead to falling home prices and a big drop in the price of rent.
Neither happened.
Prices vary greatly by region with declines in areas hugely overbuilt. However home prices are still rising nationally and the widely-expected decline in rent never happened either.
Housing Units Under Construction
Units Under Construction Details
- Total: 1,280
- Multi-Family: 693
- Single-Family: 587
Despite the big decline, there is still a large number of units under construction. But who can afford to buy?
On the surface, this will put price pressure on units as they complete. But many of these are pre-sold, I believe to buyers who will regret buying.
And people have been predicting a huge price collapse in homes and rents on the basis of completed supply. Neither happened despite the surge in completed homes.
Mortgage Rates
The average 30-year mortgage rate is 7.40 percent, up from 5.99 percent in February according to Mortgage News Daily.
Related Posts
January 30, 2026: Dear Zoomers, Trump Says He “Wants to Drive Up Housing Prices”
Somehow, I doubt Gen Z will like this message.
September 24, 2026: New Home Sales Rebound in August but Housing Remains Stagnant
Housing sales, new and existing, have been comatose for over 3 years.
October 13, 2026: Existing-Home Sales Meander Nowhere for Nearly Four Years
Since December 2022 sales have gone nowhere.
A national homebuilder has closed on nearly 500 acres in southeastern Lakewood Ranch FL where it plans to construct 1,000 homes. PulteGroup calls the community EverCreek, which will be developed by its subsidiary Pulte Homes. Terms of the 464-acre property sale were not immediately available.
At least we won’t get nuked by Iran. /s
Hard for an entry-level or mid-level buyer to accept how much more the mortgage will cost, than recently. Savings gathered over time to get started, suddenly aren’t enough. So a hopeful buyer waits out interest rates, and/or goes back to building up the buy-in fund. I think high interest rates will be sticky, along with inflation, unless there is a big crash.
The exception now is at the high end, where cash offers are plentiful, or financing can be customized.
The graph of housing units under construction shown looks bad over the 56 years, but in reality the situation is even worse because it is critical to normalize this data for population growth, about 60% over the time span used. The absolute peak remains in the early 70s. The 2006 peak isn’t as impressive on a per capita basis, not really matching the early 70s peak despite looking like it did in the graph. And the current time point is a disaster, on a per capita basis we aren’t building anywhere near what would be expected for a period of economic growth. Mish is it possible to do a graph on a per capita basis?
The situation is nowhere near as dire as you imagine.
https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/usa/united-states/population
Take a look at say 1971. US population was 202 million with a growth rate of 1.29%. That’s a additional 202*.0129 or 2.6 million people.
Now look at 2025 the most recent full year. US Population was 343 million with a growth rate of 0.52% (1/2 of 1%). That’s an additional 343*.0052 or 1.78 million people.
Technically we needed more housing starts in 1971 than in 2025.
Q: what was the multiplier for avg salary to avg house cost? Ie how much of your life is tied up in it?
1971: Salary: 10k House: 25k
About 2.5 years salary.
2026: Salary: 65k. House:400k
6+ years salary
And that’s just principal.
Apples oranges
I bought my first house in 1991 in Central Florida at age 29. The rule of thumb at the time was never, ever buy a house for more than 3 times the husband’s income. I made about $40k/year at the time so I figured I could do about $120k. I ended up buying a 3/2, 1500 sq ft in a decent neighborhood for $82k. About double my salary at the time.
Today, the median income for a full-time worker is $56k (I guess I was doing ok at $40k!). The house I bought back in the day is valued at $312k today, almost 6 times the median, which is probably low because it includes women folk (sorry ladies). So, yes, houses are wildly overpriced relative to income, at least in Florida. And don’t get me started on homeowner’s insurance!
I’m guessing though that housing is no longer that big an economic factor in the US. When I was young housing development was a major driver of the economy, and a slow-down meant a recession. It doesn’t appear to be that way anymore.
That 1991 rule would have to be amended today to be the household income rather than the husbands.
So if the median income is 56K a 2 person household would be 112K and your home at 312 would be within their 3x income range.
I think the cost of children (2) should be in the mix someplace. They are costly, and must be considered. I went through it, and it took a lot of work in and out of the home. Not to mention 3 jobs ongoing to break even.
Many don’t want them, so your calculations would get you approved. Just wanted to add that in.
Twice as much work for the same house! What progress! At least the kids are getting quality time from the state!!
And while we’re at it, how many working stiffs here feel confident they’ll even have their jobs in 6 years time?
Those of us not born on third base feel the pain