Housing sales, new and existing, have been comatose for over 3 years.
Ignoring the Covid spike, new home sales have gone nowhere for seven years.
New Residential Construction Report
The New Residential Construction Report for August 2026 remains a meandering to nowhere broken record.
July sales declined 10.5 percent. August sales rebounded 6.4 percent, heading nowhere.
New Home Sales
- Sales of new single-family houses in August 2026 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 684,000.
- This is 6.4 percent (±19.5 percent) above the July 2026 rate of 643,000, and is 2.0 percent (±15.7 percent) below the August 2025 rate of 698,000.
For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply
- The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August 2026 was 483,000. This is virtually unchanged from the July 2026 estimate of 483,000, and is 2.0 percent (±4.0 percent) below the August 2025 estimate of 493,000. This represents a supply of 8.5 months at the current sales rate.
- The months’ supply is 5.6 percent (±17.2 percent) below the July 2026 estimate of 9.0 months, and is virtually unchanged from the August 2025 estimate of 8.5 months.
Sales Price
- The median sales price of new houses sold in August 2026 was $393,700. This is 0.4 percent (±7.4 percent) above the July 2026 price of $392,200, and is 5.8 percent (±8.2 percent) below the August 2025 price of $417,900.
- The average sales price of new houses sold in August 2026 was $478,700. This is 9.1 percent (±11.2 percent) below the July 2026 price of $526,400, and is 8.8 percent (±7.7 percent) below the August 2025 price of $525,100.
Note the huge margins of error on these stats, ±19.5 PP on monthly sales and ±15.7 PP on year-over-year sales.
The Census Department does not have a lot of faith in these monthly numbers and neither do I.
However, the trends are easy to spot and that’s what matters more than any single report.
New Home Sales Annualized vs Homes for Sale Detail
Supply of new homes for sale has generally been rising. Actual sales have generally been falling.
Both measures appear to have stabilized but the number of new homes for sale is historically elevated.
New Homes For Sale by Stage of Construction
Stage of Construction Details
- For Sale: 483,000
- Not Started: 114,000
- Under Construction: 256,000
- Completed: 113,000
- Under Construction Plus Completed: 369,000
Counting vacant lots as a home for sale strikes me as silly. But the Census Department includes not started homes in its measures of supply.
The important numbers are completed and started plus completed. Those homes represent builder commitments and carrying costs.
To sell these homes, builders are under pressure to lower prices, offer financing, or other incentives.
New Homes for Sale Supply in Months
Supply in Months Detail
- All Supply: 8.5 Months
- Under Construction or Finished: 6.5 percent
- Finished: 2.0 percent
All of these numbers are historically elevated.
New Home Sales vs Existing Home Sales
One Word – Stagnant
Monthly reports are noise.
New and existing homes have both been stagnant since January 2023.
This is despite significant interest rate moves in both directions.
30-Year Mortgage Rates
Rates courtesy of Mortgage News Daily.
Pool of Price Insensitive Buyers
Taken together, the preceding two charts tell a story of price insensitive buyers.
This pool includes all cash buyers, those with huge stock market gains who are unconstrained by affordability measures, those with significant home equity who want to trade down, and speculators who believe the stock market or the Fed will bail them out.
Everyone else has been priced out of the market by a price-mortgage rate combination that is just too high.
Few existing-home owners want to trade a 3 percent mortgage rate for one again well above 7 percent.
Related Posts
August 21, 2026: Trump Threatens to Use the Military on the US Bond Market. What!?
Trump responds to a reporter’s question with an answer that makes no sense.
September 13, 2026: Existing-Home Sales Drop Two Percent, Gone Nowhere for Four Years
It’s more nowhere for now, but a big caution ahead.
September 17, 2026: Housing Starts Decline 2.6 Percent in August, Overall Weakness Continues
The trends in housing all remain down: starts, permits, completions, and sales.
September 23, 2026: Long Bond Yield Surges to Highest Level in 22 Years, What’s Behind the Increase?
The S&P Services PMI is the trigger. Prices leap and shortages noted.
I wonder what “sold in August” means. Closed or purchase agreement signed? The 10 Year Treasury was 4.37% on June 29. It’s 5.16% now. 30 Year Fixed mortgages are also up about 1% since then.
A new some sale is recorded at signing.
Existing home sale is recorded at closing.