US Suspends Sanctions on Iran Oil Sales Plus Progress on Lebanon

Iran to Sell Oil in Dollars for First Time in Decades. Financial impact on Iran?

Iran to Sell Oil in Dollars

In another victory for Iran (and the world), Iran can sell oil for dollars with sanctions removed.

Oil in Dollars Analysis

Analysis Snips

These waivers allow Iran to sell oil to more countries, and receive payment more easily.

The strategic benefit of unwinding the damage of the blockade is more significant that the total financial benefit. This will begin to cement Iran’s victory in the war, and eliminate the chance that a future blockade could be successful.

Why does Iran need these waivers in the first place? Because Iran has very few countries that are willing to risk these sanctions, this reduces demand, and increases buyer leverage, forcing down prices. This means that Iran sells to China and co at a discount to normal oil prices. Before the war was initiated on February 28th, Iranian oil was trading at a ~$10/barrel discount to Brent. Given that the price of Brent on 2/27 was ~$66/barrel, this means that Iranian oil would be selling at roughly ~$56/barrel, a 15% discount.

By issuing waivers on the sanctions related to the ability for countries to purchase, pay for, transport, etc. Iranian oil, this both lessens the discount to Brent that Iranian oil trades for due to increased purchasing competition, and lowers Iran’s expenses, increasing their realized revenue share.

Now realistically, would we expect to see a jump in Iranian price-to-Brent of $11/barrel under these new waivers? Likely not, as that would mean purchasers paying $10/barrel more than Brent. Would it be reasonable to expect Iranian oil to perhaps see a ~$4-$8/barrel price increase? That seems more likely.

How much MONEY does that mean Iran is going to earn now as a result of this waiver? Well that will of course very much depend on how many countries are still able to purchase Iranian oil, given that the EU, UK, Canada, Australia, Japan, and South Korea all have sanctions on it regardless of whether or not the United States lifts their own sanctions. Under General License U, the primary purchaser of Iranian oil was still China, followed by the UAE and India. We may see new countries enter the fray under this more expansive set of waivers, but the important point is that just because the US lifted sanctions, that doesn’t mean it’s open season either.

As of today, Iran has ~30M barrels of oil still inside the Strait of Hormuz loaded onto vessels already, and then another ~90M on vessels outside the SoH. In addition to this, they also have ~60M in storage containers inside of Iran and Kharg Island. This total sum means that Iran has ~180M barrels of oil that they can immediately sell to purchasers. Over the course of 60 days, that means Iran can sell an absolutely maximum daily amount from already extracted oil of 3M barrels per day. Now, in addition to Iran’s already loaded or stored oil, Iran is producing about 2.33M barrels of oil per day, of which, they consume about 2M domestically, leaving an excess production available for export of ~0.3M barrels per day. Prior to the start of the war however, Iran was exporting at a rate of ~2Mbpd. It will take time for Iran to safely ramp up production of their oil wells (which I should note, have NOT shut-in or seen catastrophic damage), but it should be factored in that Iran will not be able to immediately begin extracting at levels seen immediately prior to the war.

As a result, it would be reasonable to estimate that on top of the 180M barrels already produced and ready for sale, Iran will also be able to extract excess oil of ~500kbpd that can be then exported out of the Strait of Hormuz. Over a 60-day time period, that means that Iran will be able to generate excess supply of ~30M barrels. However, it needs to be factored in that it takes about 2-3 weeks for vessels to sail from Iran to their end purchasers, meaning that in a 60-day waiver, only ~43 days of production can be accounted for. This means that, at best, 21.5M barrels can be produced and sold during this window, for a total pool of sellable oil of ~201.5M barrels.

Over the course of 60 days, that means that the maximum total daily sales volume of Iranian oil is ~3.4M barrels per day. With Iranian oil likely to receive a premium to Brent of ~$4 to $8 per barrel, that means that Iran can earn up to between $13.6M to $27.2M per day as a result of these waivers

Over the course of the 60-day window, this calculates out to a grand total of between $2.24B and $3.06B of additional revenue for Iran. It should be noted that this assumes Iran is able to sell ALL of their possible oil over this period of time, something that is unlikely to occur.

The US blockade officially ended on June 18th, lasting 66 days. At daily losses of $175M/day, that means Iran lost approximately $11.55B during more than two months of US economic warfare. The single greatest concern right now for Iran is not continued strikes from the United States, it is maintaining control of their economy and population that has endured significant economic hardship throughout this war. Now, let me be clear… Iran was not even close to economic collapse or seeing so much economic devastation that they would make major concessions at the negotiating table. This is something I have argued very publicly since the day the blockade was imposed, and have been proven right by the US capitulation in the Memorandum of Understanding. But with that said, every dollar that Iran can unwind of these losses throughout the two months of the blockade make it that much more insane for Washington to attempt to reimpose in the future with any realistic expectation that it could now produce a different result. That is why these oil sanction waivers matter so much to Iran. It’s the cementing of their victory by eliminating the only possible, regardless of how unlikely, path to victory the United States still had remaining.

With up to $3B of additional revenues that Iran can earn from the sale of their oil over the course of the 60 days of the US oil sanction waivers, Iran turns leverage into concession, and ends the only remaining hope of a US victory in Iran.

A big word of thanks to Brett Erickson for his analysis.

Click for full details. I condensed to the key points.

Nuclear Inspections

Truth Social: Everybody is fully aware that Iran will agree to have Major Weapons Inspections in order to ensure “Nuclear Honesty” long into the future. President DONALD J. TRUMP

Jun 22, 2026, 10:58 AM

Denial by Iran

Major Progress on Lebanon

Netanyahu on Lebanon

A Major Victory for Iran

A Win for Iran and Hezbollah

More accurately, if it holds, it’s a win for everyone. \

Israel Election

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel by October 27, 2026 to elect the 120 members of the twenty-sixth Knesset.

The elections could be held earlier, as 106 members of the twenty-fifth Knesset have supported a bill proposing earlier elections.

I think Netanyahu’s days are numbered.

Six Key Points

• Sanctions off
• Iran unlocked financially and can sell oil for dollars
• Israel somewhat reined in
• Nuclear inspections debatable but no better than what Obama achieved
• An up to $300 billion pool to rebuild Iran is on the table
• No tolls, just fees, but essentially the same thing

Trump Says No Tolls

For a discussion of tolls and fees, please see Trump Says No Tolls. Technically Correct, But Essentially Wrong

There will be no tolls. However, there will be fees.

Disinflation Coming?

For a discussion of oil-related disinflation, please see How Much Does the Price of Oil Influence Interest Rates and Bond Yields?

Pictures show the answer is shockingly little.

• The bond market does not believe in oil-price disinflation.
• Why should anyone else?

Good Deal?

Actually, yes, compared to continuing the foolish war Trump started.

From the stupid spot Trump put himself in, this was the expected best result.