Used Car Are Prices Up 42 Percent in One Year, Have They Finally Peaked?

New and used car prices from BLS, chart by Mish

Flashback March 11, 2021

Please recall Biden Signs $1.9 Trillion Covid Relief Bill.

Key Points 

  • President Joe Biden signed the $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package on Thursday afternoon.
  • The plan, his top priority as president, sends direct payments of up to $1,400, extends a $300 per week unemployment insurance supplement, expands the child tax credit and puts funds into vaccine distribution.
  • Democrats passed the legislation on their own in Congress, as Republicans question the need for a major stimulus package while the economy improves.

Unprecedented Jump in Used Car Prices

New and used car prices from BLS, chart by Mish

New and Used Car Indexes Detail 

New and used car prices from BLS, chart by Mish

Three Rounds of Fiscal Stimulus 

The US federal government sent out three waves of stimulus payments since the start of the covid-19 pandemic in March 2020. Here’s a look back at Three Rounds of Stimulus.

  • First round of economic stimulus checks: April 2020 – The CAREs Act included a provision for a round of stimulus payments – eligible tax-paying adults received a check of up to $1,200 while eligible dependents under 16 years of age received $500 each (a maximum of three dependents could be claimed for).
  • The second round of aid, a $900 billion package which was part of the Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations Act of 2021 was signed off by Trump on 27 December 2020. It provided a one-off check of up to $600, but this time, households were also able to claim an additional $600 for child dependents aged 16 or under. 
  • On Thursday 11 March, Biden signed his $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan into law. The third payment provided eligible individual taxpayers for a check of up to $1,400, while couples filing jointly could receive a maximum of $2,800. In addition, families with dependents were eligible for an extra payment of $1,400 per dependent, regardless of the dependent’s age – this time, there was no limit to the number of dependents that could be claimed for.

Why Did the CPI Finally Jump?

Real Income and Spending data from BEA, chart by Mish

Free Money

Those blaming money supply have the wrong narrative. It was FREE MONEY.

Note those three spikes on that top yellow line. The biggest one was courtesy of the Biden Administration.

Those were three rounds of free helicopter drop money.

The CPI took off after Biden did a massive shotgun blast of free money to nearly everyone. 

CPI Index Levels

CPI Data from BLS, chart by Mish

Helicopter Drop Impact

In previous posts, I stated two rounds of stimulus happened under President Biden. Technically that is true, but the authorization of the second round was by Trump. 

The third round of stimulus, Biden’s American Rescue Plan, was tremendous overkill. The economy and jobs were already in a fast recovery. Yet, the overall $1.9 trillion package was the largest by far. 

In addition, the Biden administration repeatedly extended eviction moratoriums putting massive amounts of free money into people’s hands. This also ignited inflation easily seen in the charts.

Have Used Car Prices Finally Peaked?

I got a phone call a few days ago from a nearby car Toyota dealer (TD) it went like this. 

  • Ring
  • Me: Mike Shedlock
  • TD: Hi, this is Stephen Wade Toyota
  • Me: What’s up?
  • TD: Do you still have your Nissan Murano?
  • Me: No, I traded it in.
  • TD: What did you buy?
  • Me: A Toyota 4-Runner, but you ought to know. I traded the Murano in to you.
  • TD: Oh, sorry. Do you like the 4-Runner?
  • Me: Yes, very much
  • TD: Do you want to sell it?
  • Me: Uh, no, I like the car.
  • TD: Ok.
  • Hang Up

Seriously, that was the call. It shows how desperate dealers are for cars. But it also got me thinking: This has to be close to the top in used car prices. 

Nancy Pelosi Hoot of the Day “Government Spending Reduces Debt”

Meanwhile, I am pleased to report this exciting news: “Government Spending Reduces Debt”

Also From the Rabbit Hole

CPI Data from BLS, chart by Mish

Also from the Rabbit Hole is Biden’s Lie of the Day: “Make No Mistake, Inflation is Largely the Fault of Putin”

Curiouser and curiouser, inflation across the board accelerated in early to mid-2021. Yet, inflation is “largely Putin’s fault“. 

This post originated on MishTalk.Com.

Thanks for Tuning In!

Please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

Subscribers get an email alert of each post as they happen. Read the ones you like and you can unsubscribe at any time.

If you have subscribed and do not get email alerts, please check your spam folder.

Mish

Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

Subscribers get an email alert of each post as they happen. Read the ones you like and you can unsubscribe at any time.

This post originated on MishTalk.Com

Thanks for Tuning In!

Mish

Comments to this post are now closed.

19 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Christoball
Christoball
4 years ago
It is getting cheaper to fix your own jalopy with a known history than to buy someone else’s jalopy with an unknown history.  It is getting harder for people to find cars nicer than the one they already own. In most all circumstances people will not trade their own problems for someone else’s. This is a universal psychological phenomenon.
AWC
AWC
4 years ago
Ha! Bought a new ‘20 Tundra back in peak Covid panic, when the dealers couldn’t even get people out of their bunkers to browse the lot. Got $2500 off sticker price from the dealer, and $2500 from Toyota, for a total $5k discount. Took it in for service recently, and the sales manager offered $10k more than I paid! Had I sold it back to them, it would have become the only Tundra on the lot. 
StukiMoi
StukiMoi
4 years ago

“In addition, the Biden administration repeatedly extended eviction moratoriums putting massive amounts of free money into people’s hands. This also ignited inflation easily seen in the charts.”

Eviction moratoriums, Biden money drops etc. does not affect inflation in and of itself. Only inflating the money supply does.
Biden channelling a sizable chunk of the money supply to a certain group of people; obviously increases demand, hence prices, for goods this group buys. Just as instead channeling even larger chunks to the traditional recipients, those on Fed Welfare, increases demand, hence prices, for the goods those guys tend to buy. Arbitrarily declaring that what the former group tends to buy makes up something called the CPI; while what the latter group tends to buy does not; has exactly no bearing on inflation in any which way whatsoever.
Fooling the stupid and easily fooled into blind, uncritical belief that it somehow magically does; only serve to enable The Fed to go on with it’s mission of stealing for the benefit of the latter group, entirely without constraint: As long as The Fed makes sure the ones who are robbed are from the former group, demand for goods arbitrarily included in the CPI does not rise at all. Almost no matter how great inflation is, all demand increases will only be for goods demanded by the theft recipients, hence not goods arbitrarily included in the CPI. Since, after all, that’s how which goods are arbitrarily included in the CPI, are determined in the first place.
And so…., all the little stupid dupes; who know nothing, understand nothing and have no neither clue nor use nor value; can sit there and, in their infinite illiteracy and idiocy, continue to believe, and mindlessly regurgitate, that “inflation” is somehow “subdued”; despite it being trivially obvious to anyone with even a fractional brain, that the actual money supply is being inflated hand over fist.
FromBrussels
FromBrussels
4 years ago
Make no mistake …it is ALL Russia’s fault….again 
Doug78
Doug78
4 years ago
Reply to  FromBrussels
Yes
FromBrussels
FromBrussels
4 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
you should at least give me a liky then, shouldn’t you …..I changed camps today , ‘Churchill from Ukraine’ is my favorite now …. 
FromBrussels
FromBrussels
4 years ago
Reply to  FromBrussels
 ….yer definitely in a high spirited  mood today !   Enjoy !
Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
4 years ago
Anyone tracking usd/jpy?
High since 2015 …  when China devalued yuan (to compete).
Doug78
Doug78
4 years ago
Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
4 years ago
Have we heard last click-clack of coaster?
Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix-, mileage-, and seasonally adjusted basis) declined 2.1% in February from January. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index declined to 231.3, which was a 36.7% increase from a year ago. The non-adjusted price change in February was a decline of 2.2% compared to January, leaving the unadjusted average price up 32.4% year over year.
Christoball
Christoball
4 years ago
Reply to  Tony Bennett
Yes, all markets are running out of new buyers and believers.
whirlaway
whirlaway
4 years ago
QE is free money too.   It is free money for the morbidly rich.    
KidHorn
KidHorn
4 years ago
Do the new car prices include the ending or reduction of incentives? I would guess no. I think new car bottom line prices have gone up much more than what’s shown on the graphs.
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
4 years ago
Reply to  KidHorn
Incentives on new cars have been dropped for some time now (early 2020) because there was no need to offer them because so few new cars were being made relative to demand.
The prices have gone up by quite a lot. However, some of that jump is because there is a shortage of parts (microchips mostly) so the car makers have prioritized putting chips in their most profitable vehicles (most expensive) and not building their least profitable ones. Makes perfect sense but skews the price of new cars because cheaper models just aren’t getting made due to lack of parts.
Wolf Richter has done some excellent reporting on this on his Wolf Street site (he has a car sales background) and I’ve summarized what he’s written above.
Doug78
Doug78
4 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
Tesla has been able to slip through the chip shortage because they use a unified computer architecture that allowed them to rewrite the firmware to use a wider variety of chips. Legacy carmakers still use a patchwork of separate computers to control different systems and which are made by different suppliers. Legacy carmakers build a car and put computers in it while Tesla builds a computer and puts a car around it.
SAKMAN1
SAKMAN1
4 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
LOL, I would think it is easy to get the piddly amount of chips tesla needs for the 300k or so cars it sells. Toyota would need almost an order of magnitude more.
Doug78
Doug78
4 years ago
Reply to  SAKMAN1
You would think that Toyota would have sufficient pull on their chip suppliers because of their volume but apparently they don’t. Tesla’s chip performance comes from their ability through firmware to repurpose chips to do jobs they were initially not intended to do. It’s just smart production. You can do that if your computer system on the car is centralized. If Toyota had the same centralized system they could have done the same thing as Tesla. Instead in a Toyota car each separate system has it’s own dedicated chip and that system is supplied through a different supplier. Each supplier would have to rewrite its programs to use different chips and then integrate them into the car. You can see how rapidly that would become difficult to manage.
DHM
DHM
4 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
I remember when I bought my 2002 Subaru WRX wagon brand new.  Turbo, AWD, 5-speed, 227HP, and throttle control by cable, which made rev matching a breeze.  Now everything  is computer driven (throttle and everything), and the rev matching has to be relearned and it really disconnects you from the road.  There really was no reason to computerize everything.  I hope the time will come when people will demand less bells and whistles and more reliability by keeping it simple and less costly.  It just blows my mind.
Mr. Purple
Mr. Purple
4 years ago
Reply to  KidHorn
Incentives?  I was in the market for a Kia K5.  The first dealer I went to said the price was sticker PLUS $5K!  The second dealer said the price was sticker plus $5K but call us when they come in in a couple of weeks and we may be able to cut a couple grand off that!
Needless to say, I am delaying my purchase.

Decorate Your Walls with Mish Fine Art Images

Click each image to view details or purchase in the store.

Stay Informed

Subscribe to MishTalk

You will receive all messages from this feed and they will be delivered by email.