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Biden’s Lie of the Day: “Make No Mistake, Inflation is Largely the Fault of Putin”

CPI data from BLS, chart by Mish

Scapegoat of the Day

Make No Mistake 

Biden is a liar. Of course they all are.

Not Even the Wall Street Journal Gets It Accurately

Please consider The Fed Needs to Put Its Eye on the Money Supply

The true source of the current inflation is the cumulative increase in the money supply measured by M2 since February 2020—an incredible 41.2%. In January the rate of growth of M2, even after three months of tapering bond purchases by the Fed, was still 12.6% over its level a year earlier. That’s about double the rate it needs to be to hit the Fed’s 2% inflation target.

I Object to the Narrative

I don’t object to the WSJ title, I object to the narrative and the implications.

Inflation has been rampant all along. Yes, the Fed is to blame. But that inflation was primarily in asset prices. 

In January of 2021, the year-over-year CPI was only 1.4%.  

Economists, including the Fed, are brainwashed into believing inflation is about consumer prices. 

Home prices are not in the CPI.

Not Inflation?!

Case-Shiller Home Price Index data St. Louis Fed, chart by Mish

Smell the Fire

Inflation, as accurately measured by asset prices has been on a rampage since 2013. The Fed not only stood by and watched that, it encouraged speculative behavior.

The Fed wanted to make up for lack of prior inflation that was blazing right in front of its nose. 

Why Did the CPI Finally Jump?

Helicopter Drop

Those blaming money supply have the wrong narrative. It was FREE MONEY. 

Note those three spikes on that top yellow line. One was on Trump’s watch, the other two, and the biggest one was courtesy of the Biden Administration.

Those were three rounds of free helicopter drop money.

The CPI took off after Biden did a massive shotgun blast of free money to nearly everyone. 

And that was on top of rent moratoriums that also put money in people’s pockets.

Teamwork!

The irresponsible Fed added fuel to the inferno via totally inane QE policy further goosing housing. 

The Fed goosed assets while Biden goosed spending. That’s the lethal combination explaining what happened. 

Sure, Russia is further exacerbating the problem. But Putin did not invade until February 24, 2022. 

The CPI took off in early 2021 following free helicopter drop money. But inflation, as measured by asset price bubbles had been brewing since 2013.

Fed Cannot Fix This Mess

The Fed cannot possibly fix the geopolitical mess on top of Biden’s mess, on top of it’s own lingering mess.

Don’t expect anyone to admit huge policy errors. Do expect more scapegoats in every corner.

Real Wages Decline 12 Times in the Last 14 Months

Hourly Earnings and Real Hourly Earnings Since 1964 – Data BLS – Chart and Calculations by Mish

Meanwhile, thanks “largely” if not entirety to the Fed and politicians Real Wages Decline 12 Times in the Last 14 Months

But ignore the last year and take a look at the above chart. 

In the last 49 years wages have risen about half of a penny per hour per year, and that assumes you believe the CPI is accurate. 

Thank the Fed and politicians working hand in hand to destroy the US dollar.

Bubbles Will Pop

Please note Most People Have No Idea How Much Stocks are Likely to Crash

As a result of these bubbles popping, expect a big deflationary crash. Then it will depend on how reckless the Fed and Congress gets.

The Benefits of Running the CPI Hot

Meanwhile, Fed jackasses, especially Chicago Fed President Praises the “Benefits of Running the Economy Hot”

This post originated on MishTalk.Com.

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49 Comments
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Oldest Most Voted
Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
4 years ago
I’ll say it again. Inflation cycle started in 1999 and 2001 when derivatives were deregulated and the laws that prevented mixing of commercial and savings banks were undone.  The roots of this inflation cycle are there. Until those are undone, speculative money that doesn’t take delivery of commodities including oil will drive up priced.  Actual consumption of commodities is at levels from over a decade ago but speculative money now has doubled or tripled commodity prices.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
4 years ago
Yes. Prices are set at the margin. With more and more “spare” money sloshing around even the affluent middle class have been bidding up prices. After all, they can always sell before expiration or delivery. FOMO has forced them into TINA. YAA (yet another acronym).
Roadrunner12
Roadrunner12
4 years ago
Can someone explain this to me? I know sometimes I can be a financial illiterate. How  is government spending  reducing the national debt?
honestcreditguy
honestcreditguy
4 years ago
Biden has been a liar for years, not just now! No different than the black democrat caucus, those folks have been lying to inner city folks for years, broken promises and just making tons of money to live like kings while spoon feeding serfs…..that whole party is a lost fool on a ship to nowhere…..
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
4 years ago
Do a simple web search for “biden plagiarism” – interesting.
PreCambrian
PreCambrian
4 years ago
I usually disagree with part of your narrative but you are 100% correct on this one. Monetary easing (QE) led to asset inflation, fiscal (helicopter money) led to CPI inflation. The Russian/Ukraine conflict hasn’t even shown up in the numbers yet. It will be like pouring gasoline on the fire.
Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
4 years ago
Reply to  PreCambrian
No. It started way sooner than that. 
Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
4 years ago
For those who think the  three stimulus payments did NOT add to directly to inflation… How much did those three stimulus payments cost you as taxpayer? Yup, a big fat zero. Long term value of the three stimulus payments? Yup, a big fat zero. Where did the stimulus payments go? Inflation.
ColoradoAccountant
ColoradoAccountant
4 years ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
Cost was trillions in new debt.  It is not zero if the debt is to be paid in due time, either by taxes or inflation (tax on the little guy).
shamrock
shamrock
4 years ago
You keep assigning 2 of the 3 stimulus payments to Biden, and that’s just factually incorrect.  $1200 in April 2020 (Trump), $600 in December 2020(Trump) and $1400 in March 2021 (Biden).  BTW Trump pushed to make his second check $2000 but McConnell blocked it down to $600.  And don’t discount the effect on inflation of the enhanced unemployment payments that gave people more to stay home than to work.
thimk
thimk
4 years ago
yes , but what exacerbated and prolonged the CPI inflation pre Russia/Ukraine but post covid lockdowns was the realty that it is very easy to shutdown a global economy with its sophisticated just in time supply chains BUT very difficult to “re prime the pumps” once all economic activities  have been restored.  You kinda have lost your momentum and cracks form in your supply.      hell we lost what 3 million jobs that never came back . we really need to rethink this “shut down mentality” .  Biden shows up to the party as Mister Green Jeans . and the rest is just history . Here we sit with our thumbs up our arse blaming our favorite villain Russia .    
Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
4 years ago
Reply to  thimk
which is why government is incompetent (and democrats are to blame) , because restarting was never an issue when all the attention was on Jan 6.
Rippletum
Rippletum
4 years ago
I hope you understand that we are in a war now with Russia.  The Russians may not be bombing us now but we are in a war.  Your negative and historically nasty comments about our leaders and differences between the political parties is disgustingly in very bad taste, is designed as shock value to make you money  and is in many ways results in assisting our enemies that want to kill you and me.  Shame on you.
Naphtali
Naphtali
4 years ago
Reply to  Rippletum
It is essential that we are free to criticize those who pose as our “leaders”. Perhaps, through that exercise, we shall finally have some worthy of this nation.
Rippletum
Rippletum
4 years ago
Reply to  Naphtali
In times of war you band together with your leaders. 
Rippletum
Rippletum
4 years ago
Reply to  Rippletum
and criticism is ok, but calling people liars and worse doesn’t add to critical dialogue
Scooot
Scooot
4 years ago
Reply to  Rippletum
Having the freedom to do so is one of the positive differences between our societies.
Anon1970
Anon1970
4 years ago
Reply to  Rippletum
Too bad there is no thumbs down.
prumbly
prumbly
4 years ago
Reply to  Rippletum
It was Brandon that started this war with his incompetence. He’s a joke. All he had to do was take NATO membership off the table for Ukraine but instead he threw fuel on the fire and said Ukraine can join if they want. With leaders like Brandon, who needs enemies?
Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
4 years ago
Reply to  Rippletum
By this approach, the leaders of a country could start a war to stifle criticism.
Corvinus
Corvinus
4 years ago
Reply to  Rippletum
What a myopic view. It shows how little humanity has changed – always ready to clamp down on those that try to look at things clearly instead of with glasses tinted darkly from fear. It is precisely in such precarious times that we must hold our “leaders” to account.
TCW
TCW
4 years ago
Reply to  Rippletum
I don’t find them negative, I find them factual.  Biden has proven over and over to be a liar.  There’s nothing wrong with pointing that out so that folks can make a good decision next time they’re voting.
Carl_R
Carl_R
4 years ago
Reply to  Rippletum
Obviously there is no truth to the idea of blaming Putin for inflation, since inflation was already at the highest level in 40 years before Russia invaded Ukraine, so Mish is 100% right. I’m guessing that your problem is in the semantics? Are you saying you would have preferred if, rather than calling Biden a liar, he had simply pointed out that what Biden said was totally untrue?
FromBrussels
FromBrussels
4 years ago
Reply to  Rippletum
you are at war because you ve been craving for conflict  with Russia ever since Putin had the damn cheek to wipe out your terrorist gangs in Syria ! 
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
4 years ago
Reply to  FromBrussels
Sorry FB. It goes back to Gen. Patton in early 1945.
honestcreditguy
honestcreditguy
4 years ago
Reply to  Rippletum
Biden is a liar, do you have a hard time with truth? He just lied and Mish pointed it out….is that so hard to swallow?
A demented 50 yr pubic employee with 8 bills co signed or introduced in that juncture. This is why America is falling apart, its full of folks who make excuses up. That is what sheeple do….Democrats have been a complete failure from Barney Frank homes for everyone, Obama’s open border policy that Biden scaled up to the current disaster…..
We started this war, we inflamed it, by executive order Demented fool cut off all investment in Russia forever..
The guy is the pale white horse…more death and destruction under him than Carter…..fail!
AWC
AWC
4 years ago

Inflation? Nothing a few $trillion more in pork barrel spending won’t inflame. 

Eddie_T
Eddie_T
4 years ago
Make no mistake, Every bad thing that ever happened is somebody else’s fault. What an absolute crock. Does anybody believe that bs? It’s hard to believe he can even say it with a straight face. All the numbers are  from before the invasions. Did we get inflation because Putin was going to (someday) invade Ukraine? 
Only idiots would believe that story. So I’m sure many Americans do believe it. Idiocracy.
Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
4 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T
With dementia and senility, is he even responsible for what he says?
The real problem is the 81 million fools who voted for him, and to be even-handed, the 70 million who allowed Trump a chance to run again.  Until the US wakes up and picks true leaders, it will continue to decline.
Corvinus
Corvinus
4 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T
4 years of Russia-Gate primed the public to believe Putin is the latest “Madman” that “hates our freedoms”. Be careful, I think he might also want to impurify our bodily fluids.
Doug78
Doug78
4 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T
I can’t recall a politician ever taking responsibility for something major going wrong and I have been alive for a long time. I think maybe Carter took responsibility for something bad but that’s it.
Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
4 years ago
“As a result of these bubbles popping, expect a big deflationary crash.”
Another Day Another Circle Of The Drain … for China:
“Capitulation is starting to take place,” said Gilbert Wong, a quantitative strategist at Morgan Stanley, whose team predicted the rout in Chinese shares last year and refrained from joining the bullish consensus on China going into 2022.
(Bloomberg) — Some dollar bonds of higher-rated Chinese developers were poised for their biggest-ever weekly drops, amid declines for many risk assets around the world, as ongoing worries about the property sector spread to stronger builders.
Eddie_T
Eddie_T
4 years ago
Reply to  Tony Bennett
Okay Mr. Bennett. I’m at zero leverage now and if we get a waterfall drop I’m going 100% to physical uranium on the bounce. It’ll be interesting to see which does better. Uranium or the long bond.
CRS65
CRS65
4 years ago
Can we please stop politicizing inflation!  Anyone with an ounce of knowledge about economics understands that we have had long-duration macro forces which have been dis inflationary for a very long-time.  Has the world really changed that significantly following the pandemic to reverse these long-duration forces?  If not, the 2021 inflation that we have been experiencing here and around the world must be categorized as largely transitory.  With advent of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions that followed, energy and certain agricultural and metals prices have been pushed significantly higher.  In a way, this military action and the resulting sanctions are sowing the seeds of much lower inflation 12-24 months from now given that to lower inflation prices do not need to come down in absolute terms, they just must not continue to rise versus the prior YOY period.
Mish
Mish
4 years ago
Reply to  CRS65
“Can we please stop politicizing inflation!  “
I blamed the Fed under Bush, Obama, Trump, and Biden
I also blamed Bush, Obama, Trump, and Biden
This is not exactly being political 
CRS65
CRS65
4 years ago
Reply to  Mish
Let me be clearer. Blaming the Fed for financial asset price inflation (e.g. stock and bond prices) is 100% fair game and spot on.  However, blaming the Fed for CPI or PPI inflation just does not hold water.  The current post pandemic period inflation of real assets cannot be directly tied to the Fed.  I see the current period of real asset inflation a direct function of unprecedented fiscal stimulus through the various pandemic programs which directly put money in the pockets of the majority of Americans.  The economic recovery from depths of the shutdown period in early 2020 proves that these fiscal programs were very effective, however they created a major sequencing problem which has directly created the real asset inflation that we are currently seeing.  That sequencing issue came about due to the fact that directly putting money in the pockets of consumers instantly stimulated consumer spending while the recovery of manufacturing, logistics, and other supply chain lagged far behind the ramp in spending.
Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
4 years ago
Wait, what? … 
… then why has POTUS and Yellen – for MONTHS –  been touting Build Back Better infrastructure bill as panacea for inflation???
StukiMoi
StukiMoi
4 years ago
Children, and the childbrained, always blame some mean Hobgoblin when things go wrong. Because other children, as well as other childbrains, believe them.
When “our” so called “Leader” is THAT stupid and illiterate: It’s almost inconceivable that Ukraine will not, indeed, be better off allied with Russia, than with anything that includes this rank idiot. Big, bad boogeyman Putin may not be the nicest guy around, but at least neither is he an unusually slow witted three year old with nukes.
Scooot
Scooot
4 years ago
Reply to  StukiMoi
“It’s almost inconceivable that Ukraine will not, indeed, be better off allied with Russia,”
A pity Putin didn’t explain this to them and give them a choice. It would have saved everyone an awful lot of trouble and heart ache.
FromBrussels
FromBrussels
4 years ago
Reply to  Scooot
….they actually HAD a choice….but that choice was obviously never approved by the US of A….and with some more billions  sent by the US as yet another ‘incentive’, the choice was wiped off the table ….  
StukiMoi
StukiMoi
4 years ago
Reply to  Scooot
Like lots of people with Soviet era memories, I suspect lots of Ukranians retain an entirely outsized, and completely unrealistic, image of American “Leaders.” America used to be an awful lot better and more justly governed than the Soviet Union. An awful lot better, and more justly, governed than current Russia under Putin, even. Problem is, that America don’t exist anymore. The one which replaced it, rob by way of debasement, harass by way of arbitrary dictats and kangaroo courts, and bomb people for no other reason than Americans back home being indoctrinated to cheer for the resulting fireworks display on TeeVee.. And does precious little else.
Current day America may not be any better than Putin’s Russia, but neither is it any better. Just two rather indistinguishable totalitarian dumps, whose rulers rob and harass, cultivate animosity in order for the clique closest to the rulers to sell arms, and have too many nukes for anyone’s comfort.
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
4 years ago
One of my favorite meme’s on the inflation lie by the Democrats is right here:
1) “Inflation is transitory” @ 4%
2) “Inflation is good” @ 6%
3) “It’s just corporate greed” @ 7.5%
4) “Putin did it” @ 10%
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
4 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
Here is the link to the meme. Can’t understand why this site doesn’t allow pasting images or links
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
4 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
Sometimes this site doesn’t allow links and sometimes it does. It’s very frustrating to be able to post and then your edit of your post fails so that I have to do a ton of small posts to fool this editor. All in all this site hosting really leaves a lot to be desired.
Pacioli
Pacioli
4 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
Use a URL shortener.
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
4 years ago
Reply to  Pacioli
I tried. It rejected it every time as potential spam.
KidHorn
KidHorn
4 years ago
Governments always say what they hope is true. Doesn’t mean they always lie. Sometimes what they hope is true is actually true.
The current administrations hopes and reality are so far apart on pretty much everything that it’s far more surprising when they tell the truth than when they lie.
Karlmarx
Karlmarx
4 years ago
So Mish  – what do you really think about the Fed?
RonJ
RonJ
4 years ago
“Those blaming money supply have the wrong narrative. It was FREE MONEY.”
Spending supply. A check in the mail, across the board.

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