More Good Vaccine News
There’s more good news on the vaccine front. The FDA Finds Moderna Covid-19 Vaccine Highly Effective.
The Food and Drug Administration said Tuesday that the Covid-19 vaccine developed by Moderna Inc. MRNA was “highly effective,” setting the stage for an emergency authorization later this week that would add a second vaccine to the arsenal against the pandemic.
Barring complications, the FDA is aiming to authorize emergency use of the Moderna vaccine Friday, following the same timetable as last week with the first Covid-19 vaccine from Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE.
Moderna’s analysis, posted by the FDA, also included new data suggesting that the first dose of its vaccine can reduce infections that don’t cause symptoms. If this finding holds up in further analysis—including after the second of the two-dose regimen—it could mean that the vaccine not only protects individuals from disease, but also curbs transmission of the virus from person to person.
Moderna has said it expects to have 20 million doses available for the U.S. to ship by the end of 2020, enough to inoculate 10 million people with the two-shot regimen. Moderna, with its own manufacturing plant and working with contract manufacturers, expects to produce between 500 million and 1 billion doses in 2021 for global use.
FDA Analysis
There is no excuse for failure to link to the study, but unfortunately that is typical.
Here is the FDA Report.
Moderna Efficiency
Moderna Efficiency Final Analysis
Key Points
- All 11 cases of severe COVID-19 at least 14 days after second dose as assessed by the
adjudication committee were in the placebo group. - Of these 11 participants, 5 had risk factors for severe COVID-19 and 6 did not.
- In the primary efficacy analysis, there were an additional 19 cases of severe COVID-19 (one of which resulted in death from COVID-19), for a total of 30 severe COVID-19 cases starting 14 days after dose 2, per adjudication committee assessment.
- All 30 cases were in the placebo group. Nine of the total 30 severe COVID-19 cases resulted in hospitalization.
The Most Urgent Vaccination Effort Since Polio Shots has Launched
Previously I noted The Most Urgent Vaccination Effort Since Polio Shots in the 1950s has Launched
Competition Is a Good Thing
The problem with the Pfizer vaccine was the extreme cold storage and handling conditions it required.
Moderna is much less sensitive.
In addition, two sources will provide competition, increase supplies, and help keep costs down.
Mish
71% of Americans now say they are likely to take the vaccine.
worldwide covid vaccination dashboard. will be interesting to see how this changes over time
From SCMP
Should Hongkongers get a financial incentive for taking the new Covid-19 vaccines? Some local lawmakers think so.
Hong Kong lawmakers have suggested providing a cash incentive of up to HK$5,000 (US$645) to encourage residents to get vaccinated against the coronavirus when the first million shots become available early next year.
Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor last Friday announced that a deal had been reached to secure 15 million shots of Covid-19 vaccines manufactured on the mainland and in Europe, but faced tough questions as to whether residents would be open to jabs manufactured and distributed by Chinese companies.
On Wednesday, Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan Siu-chee continued to face questions from lawmakers on the Legislative Council health services panel about how the government would encourage residents to get vaccinated.
Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan addressed concerns from local lawmakers over the city’s pending vaccine programme on Wednesday.
“You have already been criticised by residents when you said infected people would be given a subsidy, so will there be a cash reward for getting the shots?” Leung Che-cheung of the pro-establishment Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB) asked Chan.
“If there is nothing to motivate residents to be vaccinated, it will be the end of Hong Kong. So if HK$3,000 is not enough, then give them HK$5,000,” he said.
Insurance industry lawmaker Chan Kin-por also said he had heard from constituents asking if they would be given cash for taking the Covid-19 shot.
Smart idea
A good breakdown of some longer-term problems from getting covid–better, but not fine.
This is the real cost of Covid. It will be a long time before we know the true toll on the economy. Hopefully, treatments for long covid will improve, because there will be an awful lot of it around.
LONDON (Reuters) – British scientists are trying to establish whether the rapid spread in southern England of a new variant of the virus that causes COVID-19 is linked to key mutations they have detected in the strain, they said on Tuesday.
Slideshow ( 5 images )
The mutations include changes to the important “spike” protein that the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus uses to infect human cells, a group of scientists tracking the genetics of the virus said, but it is not yet clear whether these are making it more infectious.
“Efforts are under way to confirm whether or not any of these mutations are contributing to increased transmission,” the scientists, from the COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium, said in a statement (bit.ly/3mhpTJX).
The new variant, which UK scientists have named “VUI – 202012/01” includes a mutation in the viral genome region encoding the spike protein, which – in theory – could result in COVID-19 spreading more easily between people.
The British government on Monday cited a rise in new infections, which it said may be partly linked to the new variant, as it moved its capital city and many other areas into the highest tier of COVID-19 restrictions.
As of Dec. 13, 1,108 COVID-19 cases with the new variant had been identified, predominantly in the south and east of England, Public Health England said in a statement.
But there is currently no evidence that the variant is more likely to cause severe COVID-19 infections, the scientists said, or that it would render vaccines less effective.
“Both questions require further studies performed at pace,” the COG-UK scientists said.
More on the Moderna roll-out.
Of the various vaccines, Moderna is the one I would prefer. I wonder if, when you get a shot, you will know which one you are getting?
Whoever is giving it will no doubt know, and they should divulge that information.
I expect to get the Moderna vaccine, because in these early days….the next couple of months, it looks like it will be more widely available. I will take whichever I’m offered first.
The COVID maven here was on TV today (saw it on YouTube, actually)….and said the local high exposure healthcare workers had signed up for every dose that arrived this week. All spoken for and plenty of people waiting in line for the next shipment.
I expect it will be that way for a few weeks.
Some info on vaccine pricing.
Thanks. That is about what I expected. The vaccines themselves will end up being free to people getting vaccinated, but the persons doing the jabbing may charge a small fee. If so, the consumer can seek reimbursement for that fee.
I the long run, the whole equation is different. I present this as a primer for the lay public……as an example of something I see a lot….how providers (doctors) get squeezed…between mandates by governments, expectations from the public, and the reality of what insurance companies are willing to pay them for what they do.
Sorry, wrong link. I am having difficulty with the link…and with no edit…..let me try again. Okay, this is the right one.
It’s great to see that soon this pandemic will stop, but the economic backlash that happened still affects millions of americans in a economic way. Nevertheless there are many ways to earn money, for example, investing in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, sites like http://www.mintme.com teach the people how to start in this form of monetary system.
What ever happened to the ‘report’ option Mish?
Efficacious at what? I have a Hard Drive on my desk that is a particularly efficacious paper weight, but not much for data storage.
There are many measures of efficacy, but one of the most pertinent is not yet known: How many people do you need to vaccinate to prevent a single death?
With my great knowledge of mathematics, and after great consideration… roughly 1.
Vaccine = no infection = no death.
No it isn’t. And this is not some made up measure but is scored by epidemiologists on a routine basis when weighing the balance risks and benefits.
Anybody else notice in the tables@Mish has snapshotted, the placebo 65+ group had Covid 19 half as often as the 18-65 group? .4% against .7%, 20 against 40, 30 against 60, depending on the number.
Gotta remember, the trial happened with the participants behaving differently than they would have a year earlier.
Assuming those most vulnerable would take the vaccine, very roughly:
“Of these 11 participants, 5 had risk factors for severe COVID-19 and 6 did not. “
So @ 50% of severe are those not vulnerable.
“In the primary efficacy analysis, there were an additional 19 cases of severe COVID-19 (one of which resulted in death from COVID-19), for a total of 30 severe COVID-19 cases starting 14 days after dose 2, per adjudication”
So very @ (and if p.e.a. doesnt include the first 11) @ 10 not vulnerable (19×50%) were severe of 156 (not vulnerable) <65 who caught the virus. Therefore it stopped the 6% of severe cases that occured in those not vulnerable infected, and stopped the 30% number of hospitalised of those – roughly the two of every hundred infected.
The fatality I put as in the vulnerable group who “would have made a choice” to be vaccinated – because fatalities in non vulnerable are much less an occurrence by all other data.
So millions of people are vaccinated… sorry how often the double shots !?… continuously ? …. so that during whatever total time frame, two of every hundred not vulnerable infected…. or 2 % of 1.5 % (case n%) = 0.03% …. that is 300 per million people during that time frame … do not end up in hospital. Ultimately sparing 20 000 hospital visits per million people assuming they were all infected.
That is being optimistic, ignoring sequela, rare fatalities that would occur in both groups, side effects of vaccine, new strains etc.
That those vaccinated are less contagious is obvious, sort of sad to see it used as promo for having others vaccinated.
Well, it’s a perspective, and people of whatever group are going to choose what they choose, most of the 20 000 by choice non vaccinated who end up in hospital will probably think they made the wrong choice, most of the other 980 000 probably not.
Free to correct those figures if there is large error.
On ZH –
NICK THE GREEK RESTAURANT OWNER ASKS PUBLIC HEALTH INSPECTORS ISSUING CITATION: “ARE YOU GOING TO PAY MY RENT?”
Money Shot –
“Are you going to pay my rent ? says owner Anton Van Happen of ‘Nick The Greek’ to public health inspectors issuing him a citation for staying open after being issued a closure order.
“Why aren’t you at Costco right now, there’s 500 people inside Costco” a customer of ‘Nick The Greek’ says to public health inspectors.
All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others.
Is he going to pay the hospital bill for the people that get infected in his restaurant? That’s a lot more than what he makes off a table. Of course not… somebody else gets to pay that.
This is a place where Democrats and Republicans disagree. Democrats think the people should be able to sue businesses if they get infected there. Republicans think that businesses should be exempted from liability, even if they didn’t follow health guidelines.
I’d say it should be 50/50. The dipshits that dine indoors definitely bear some responsibility. Insurance shouldn’t apply to deliberately stupid actions.
There is some dissonance in Nick the Greek owned by Anton Van Happen.
Good news, if I read a graph right:
The FDA report, Figure 2, top of page 28, shows C19 incidence counts over time for the two groups, vaccine and placebo. The placebo group has a smooth, rising curve. The vaccine group’s curve never really takes off.
C19 incident numbers from the study are really low, so there’s always a question of whether they might be noise or whatnot.
That smoothness says the numbers over time are solid – not random noise.
WTF is going on with this?
Well, the graph appears to be a Google product. I see it when searching “covid 19 data” without the double-quotes. The graph can only show “New Cases” and “Deaths”. By “Deaths” they mean whatever numbers the geo-entity has assigned to Covid 19. So, not very comparable between geo-entities or over time. Ditto, “New cases”.
In short, Google should be embarrassed.
The chaos on the right of Sweden’s lines is clearly an indication that someone isn’t working on the weekend. Bring up the live graph and hover your cursor. You’ll see zeros for Sat/Sun.
Unless journalists are now bots, that impression is being bandied around on purpose. Yesterday I saw a headline in elmundo (considered reputable) saying how bad fatalities were in Sweden terrible terrible… so I look it up at
and its just a straight lie. Sweden is about similar to various other countries, including Spain (except Spain had very high fatalities during spring, and now is also closer to other countries) .
Yeah, the US press can’t get enough of how bad the USA has been, what with the wrong president and all. But, it’s fun to look at places that just list US states and European countries (which are pretty similar geopolitical entities).
BTW, others have noticed that Spain, Latin American, and maybe Portugal have done particularly badly so far. Genetics and/or intra-travel?
Sweden does have issues, whether it appears on that chart or not. It would seem that their hospitals are at capacity, or over, and neighboring countries are offering to help:
I have noticed erratic reporting of data from Sweden in recent weeks, with no data being reported for days at a time. It may be that their reporting system is behind. It will all sort out in time, however.
In any case, it seems clear that Finland, Iceland, and Norway are faring much better than Sweden. I suspect that when the dust clears, the economic toll on Sweden will end up being much higher than the economic toll on Norway, Finland, and Iceland.
They are not lying. They are bullshitting. To lie you need to know the truth because the purpose of a lie is to deflect from the truth. Bullshitting on the other hand is indifferent to the truth. They just make it up on the spot. Their aim is to entertain. Many bullshitters start out as liers but since good lying takes energy and research they go the easy way and devolve into bullshitters.
Mish, you need to do an write up on the superiority of SOCIALIST MEDINCE over libertarian medicine.
Perhaps you begin by comparing/contrasting medical care in Libertarian Yemen vs Socialist Sweden/Norway/Canada/Japan/South Korea/Tiawan/Australia/Germany/Franch…etc etc.
As you know, most medical innovations and drug discoveries have been financed by SOCIALSIST GOVERMENT UNITED STATES tax dollars. Covid is just the latest example.
Are they vaccinating for free?
You mention keeping costs down. I’m sitting here thinking that every US taxpayer has paid the cost for this vaccine and then some, and they’re pressuring/requiring people to get jabbed — this should be a “free” distribution.
Lucid comments like those will cause .gov to pull the plug on the internet.
The Pfizer vaccine being distributed now is being offered free to healthcare personnel.
Quote likely, however, millions will eventually be vaccinated, and insurance will pay for it. The money will be made on the back end.
Have US taxpayers have already paid for the vaccine?
Wasn’t the deal that the US government would pick up the tab for a big, X amount of the vaccine even if it didn’t work out? Effectively paying for much of the trials. But if the vaccine works out, then the the vaccine would be sold like anything else. No need for a subsidy.
That said, given that the vaccine is being touted (I’d say honestly and rightly.) as a public good, then it makes sense for the public taxpayer to pick up the tab. Hard to establish a fair price in that case, of course, but what else is new?
The mRNA technique they’re using was developed at tax-payer expense. They only patented it in March 2019 when the Covid was in route, so to say, but many contest that it is legal to patent technology of which the government is the owner.
Interesting. I guess the patent situation would be in the contract. Do you know what kind of bucks we’re talking about here – the tax-payer expense, that is? Like, was this a quick, chump-change contract or something the gov has been backing for some years now?
No, it’s a long time ago I read about it, but it’s years of research dating back to before 2010. Fauci is a broker enabling this kind of private/public partnerships (thousands) where commercial benefits accrue to both parties, but the research is funded largely at tax payer expense. In the case of this research also Defense funds.
Congress has made this legal with a new law. In the case of Moderna, there seem to be a lot of people who think the patents rightfully belong to the US government.
This kind of stuff happens more often. The super expensive (in the USA) epi-pens was also developed by the army. The research sums are not always high, but only some research of all that is funded hits the commercial bull’s eye. Having parties that did not actually contribute innovation milking the public with patent monopolies is an odious racket, which has no public benefits.
Note that Moderna took government money, but Pfizer didn’t, in the development of the vaccine. Still, I expect the vaccines to be distributed either for free, or with a very small charge.
At this point the vaccine shortage IS the issue. We need to get ramped up much faster than what is happening with the Pfizer product.
If Moderna can ship more vaccine, then we should be taking the Moderna vaccine.
Like..this week. People are dying. Numbers are going exponential in a lot of places.
Over the longer term more competition means a better price point…but let’s not worry too much about how much it costs right now…..lets get the vaccine out there so people who want to take it can take it.
People who have concerns about safety can wait….very soon the data will be out there on safety. Millions of people will be vaccinated and we can look at the data on side effects and efficacy with the advantage of large group studies.
My guess is that there will be a small but significant cohort that will find reasons to not take the vaccine not matter how safe it is……no amount of data will satisfy them.
I’ve heard the Oxford/AstraZeneca 70% effective vaccine is much easier to make, still testing it tho. Don’t trust Ffizer and Moderna is the brash new kid on the block. All eyes are on how these work and yes its always great to have competition and choices.
I’m having trouble understanding h ki w the pfizer and moderna vaccine are considered equivalent. Granted they both are 95% effective but the moderna dose is smaller and is less fragile meaning requiring less refrigeration
The most likely option for most Americans will be Moderna, which I am happy with, for the reasons above.
Moderna’s vaccine has had much smoother sailing. The F.D.A. review showed that it worked equally well in white, Black and Hispanic volunteers, men and women, healthy participants and those at risk of severe Covid-19 with conditions like obesity and diabetes. For people 65 and older, the trial provided an estimated efficacy of 86.4 percent, lower than the overall estimate of 94.1 percent. But the apparent difference was not statistically significant. And 86.4 percent is still very high.
So far, two potential differences between the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines have emerged in the F.D.A.’s reviews, but the findings may reflect a shortage of data rather than genuine distinctions….
….Moderna produced more evidence that its vaccine can prevent severe disease. Of 30 volunteers who developed severe cases of Covid, all had received the placebo, not the vaccine….
…..How long that protection will last is still an open question. In a recent study, Moderna found that three months after the second dose, volunteers were still making high levels of antibodies. But researchers don’t yet know what levels are needed to maintain immunity. Time, and more research, will tell whether booster shots will be required.
Another puzzle is whether the vaccine can prevent people from spreading the disease, which would greatly help to stop the pandemic. Those who are infected but have no symptoms are thought to be a major source of transmission.
A vaccine that prevents illness might still allow people to become infected and harbor the virus in their noses long enough to transmit it.
New data from Moderna suggest that its vaccine may reduce transmission. Researchers found that people who had one shot were less likely than those in the placebo group to have symptom-free infections in their noses — and therefore less likely to be contagious….
Excellent comments thanks.
I had to go digging for that report. No excuse for the WSJ not to. It is typical.