When the subsidies run out, EV sales show their true colors.
Volkswagen Leads the Way
Please note Electric Car Sales Plunge as Europe Returns to Petrol.
Sales of Volkswagen electric cars have plunged by almost a quarter in Europe as demand for battery-powered vehicles stalls and buyers return to petrol.
Electric vehicle (EV) sales fell by 24pc in the first three months of the year as high inflation and rising energy prices dampened demand. The drop-off in EV demand comes as politicians in the region rollback subsidies and reconsider ambitious targets to dump petrol and diesel cars.
In September, Rishi Sunak, the Prime Minister, pushed back a deadline to block new petrol and diesel sales in the UK from 2030 to 2035. Incentives for drivers buying new EVs were scrapped in 2022.
Data suggests that demand for petrol cars is rising faster than for electric models in Britain.
Demand Reverts to Petrol
The Telegraph reports Demand for Electric Cars Slows Sharply as Customers Revert to Petrol.
Electric car demand has slowed sharply in a sign that drivers are turning back to petrol.
The market share of battery electric vehicles (EVs) declined last month, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) said.
EV registrations rose only 3.8pc from a year earlier, compared with a 10pc advance in the overall car market. What gains EVs did achieve in March were driven entirely by fleet and business purchases, with sales to ordinary drivers dropping, the SMMT said.
The SMMT’s figures came as Carlos Tavares, the head of carmaking giant Stellantis, whose brands include Vauxhall, Peugeot and Fiat, warned that electric vehicles are unlikely to ever be universally popular among drivers.
Mr Tavares said the 500kg of raw materials currently required to produce an EV battery pack isn’t sustainable and said a technological breakthrough was required to halve the weight of battery packs over the next decade.
SMMT called for VAT on new EV sales to be halved, changes to plans to introduce road tax for the vehicles and a reduction in taxes on public charging points to bring them into line with home charging.
At least 22pc of new cars sold by a manufacturer this year must be zero emission under government net zero rules. The threshold will rise annually to 100pc by 2035.
Carmakers face fines for failing to hit the targets, levied at £15,000 per vehicle above the threshold.
There is a near zero percent chance 22 percent of cars will be zero emission in 2024 without massive subsidies and perhaps even with massive subsidies.
Green Wave in Reverse
In the US, the Green Wave in Reverse, Biden Rolls Back EV Mandates, But Not Enough
Under EPA rules, EVs will need to be 30-40% of the market by 2030, down from the proposed 60%.
In the Zero Chance Category
Most popular gas-powered pickups emit about 430 grams of CO2 per mile. Under EPA’s final rule, trucks will have to average 184 g/mile in 2027, 128 g/mile in 2030 and 90 g/mile by 2032. Ergo, the companies will effectively have to produce one to two electric trucks for every gas-powered one in 2027. The ratio will be closer to four to one by 2032.
Ford to “Re-Time” New EV Production, Expand Hybrid Production
On April 4, I noted Ford to “Re-Time” New EV Production, Expand Hybrid Production
Ford announces a two-year delay, “retiming” until 2027, on new EV models scheduled for 2025. In addition. Ford will focus on a full line of hybrids.
Tesla’s Deliveries Drop for First Time Since 2020
Also note Tesla’s Deliveries Drop for First Time Since 2020, It’s Demand Not Supply
Tesla’s (TSLA) quarterly deliveries in the first quarter of 2024, are down 8.5% from a year earlier. It’s the first quarterly decline since 2020.
Only 35 Class 8 Truck EV Charging Stations
One of the things holding up use of electric semis is expense. A second is the number of charging stations.
Please note there are 4 Million Semis on the Road, Only 35 Class 8 Truck EV Charging Stations
For the 5th year, Musk is hyping 50,000 electric semis without having a factory to produce them. And now Tesla auto sales are falling.
One of two things is about to happen. EV targets will plunge in Europe and the US, or there will be some hugely missed targets.
My guess is both.
This is what is known as … a race to the bottom… as this gains steam manufacturers will desperately try to out do each other reducing prices to try to clear out EV inventory to try to mitigate their losses… as the entire market collapses.
Too bad the batteries are so heavy … otherwise I could see Teslas repurposed as high tech golf carts… hahahahaha
Jeff… high tech golf carts… on a serious note — if I were you Jeff (thank god I am not!!!) I’d get ahead of this curve and unload your EVs… before they are totally worthless.
There is still a window of opportunity … fire sale those suckers!!!
(did I mention the Lexus dealer has not sold an EV this year? That’s your canary)
Ford Lightning Price Cut “Sends Shockwaves Through EV Market”
Shares of Rivian Automotive, Lucid Group, and Tesla Motors moved lower during the cash session in the US after Ford Motor announced price cuts for its electric F-150 Lightning pickup truck amid concerns about sliding demand across the EV industry. Meanwhile, an EV price war between the automakers rages on as unprofitable EV startups struggle to survive.
Let’s begin with a Bloomberg report that says Ford is reducing the price of its Lightning pickup truck by up to 7.5%. Earlier this year, the company paused production of the truck and is set to resume production later in the month
The largest price cut is on the Flash extended-range model, where customers could expect to save $5,500. The model now starts at around $67,995.
Ford told Bloomberg that price cuts will help it “adapt to the market to achieve the optimal mix of sales growth and customer value.”
link to zerohedge.com
Getting ahead of the curve:
Toyota cuts 2023 EV sales forecast by nearly 40% in latest questionable strategy shift link to electrek.co
‘Questionable’…. hahahahaha now that’s a good one!!!
It’s like me going to my board and suggesting we continue to try to sell fridges to Eskimos… after having convinced them to do this a few years ago and subsidizing the losses by selling fridges across the rest of the world….
Eventually — they’d find a way to remove me as CEO… and commit me to an asylum for the mentally ill.
And this …. is in spite of massive subsidies tempting the herd to buy one of these contraptions.
EVs are going the way of the dodo – it’s inevitable … (cuz logic will prevail and EV and logic do not belong in the same sentence)….. but it will take a bit of time to cure the stupidity of the masses with regard to this issue….
If the subsidies were stripped… overnight sales would completely collapse
When the economy, such as the energy industry, is directed by ideologues, there is no telling how long failure must be endured before the ideologues are removed and the ideological policies are reversed.
A problem here is that behind the EV ideologues are other green ideologues who think that no vehicles, no transport, and local sourcing are best.
Too expensive, too compromised in real world use for the majority of people, not enough public charging that works, expensive to set up at home charging. Meanwhile, hybrids have none of these downsides and some of the upside of electrification. Gosh, this one’s a head scratcher.
Way off topic but is anyone investing in CAVA?
I bought 100 shares for fun the other day when it was around $60. I have to admit feeling a little squeamish buying a 300+ P/E ratio, but sometime TINA FOMO Meme YOLO beats fundamentals. I remember like yesterday when Zerohedge was relentlessly bashing CMG as overvalued at $700/share. Things are going well so far.
Just allow free, such as they now are, markets do as they will. Nah, The Powers That Be know what’s best for All.🔦✝️
Winners of EV success would be China, Indonesia (nickel) or Chile (copper, lithium)
Winners of EV defeat would be oil exporters. Russia or Iran.
China and Russia are like oil and water. Both feign friendship while hiding a gun under the coat.
Enterprise Wins Approval to Build Texas Oil Port as Exports Soar
link to finance.yahoo.com
If you want to know where the future of EV’s & the auto industry is headed, pay attention to BYD & CATL.
There is no point getting upset about mandates. Mandates change when they typically prove unworkable.
EV sales are flattening out, or even declining in some cases. I suspect that PHEV sales will be the new growth area.
In the long run, there will be a growing percentage of vehicles powered by electricity and a declining percentage of those running on gas or diesel. Which will reduce demand for gas and diesel. Which will help keep gas and diesel prices lower (not counting taxes) in the long run.
Those using gas and diesel should be cheering for more EV and PHEV vehicles on the roads as it will help keep fuel prices down.
Biden to send US refinery coordinates to Hamas.
Innovation adoption follows a bell curve and that curve is similar whether it is about smart phone or 19th Century agricultural equipment. The market is divided into roughly 5 segments and each segment has different characteristics and reasons for adopting an innovation.
The segments are:
Innovators (2.5%),
Early Adopters (13.5%),
Early Majority (34%),
Late Majority (34%),
Laggards (16%).
We are now in the Early Adopter phase where those who adopt do it for practical reasons that are practical for them such as being able to charge at home and primarily for commuting. This phase has a slowing growth rate and can be choppy as consumers decide whether it is good for them or not. The decisions are no longer based on passion but on fact.
What often isn’t discussed is the secondary market. EV batteries do not age well and lose capacity over time, so that a used EV might have only 50-60% of the range of the same vehicle when new. Just like a computer battery.
And battery replacement costs are still prohibitive. IF battery technology improves, such as lifespan, lower cost of replacement, and improved recharging rates (for traveling purposes) then EV sales MIGHT improve.
Citation please for your false statement
Which part do you consider false?
All batteries lose charging capacity over time. That’s a fact.
Replacement costs are still prohibitive. That’s a fact.
If battery tech improves, then EV sales might improve. That’s speculative but reasonable.
Facts do not matter to those captured by a cult
A friend of mine was planning on buying a used ev but decided against it because of 1. battery longevitiy of the used car. 2. increased car insurance costs. Not sure if there was more but as explained to me after doing the research it was not a cost savings at all and would cost him more than an ice. He holds a technical degree and is employed by an oem supplier her in MI.
Reason #3 is excessive tire wear – what to people think 2.2 tons does to rubber longevity?
Reason #4 is reduced trunk space – ALL BEVs have smaller luggage capacity compared to their fuel equivalent. Terrible for families.
Reason #5 is that in winter your range will drop by 25-40% depending on circumstances. How do you recognize an electric car driver in winter? He climbs out of his car in full winter clothing, scarf and wool cap.
Reason #6 is that only a fraction of car workshops are capable of finding and repairing defects in the electric circuitry. 800 VDC is lethal. Our brand new Audi PHEV spent 5 weeks being repaired in 3 different Audi locations until they found a defective battery cell.
Toyota is supposedly better.
Perhaps.
You sound a bit sour.. is that because you are now stuck with an EV that has collapsed in value?
Someone somewhere said this — would you buy a 5 year old used mobile phone?
What’s yet to be determined is whether this innovation will progress to the final 3 stages. Some innovations never get past Early Adopters due to the innovation not being that great or bypassed by other innovation comes along that renders it obsolete.
For example Blu-Ray tech was once the hot thing for Hi Definition movies. It got as far a Early Adopter stage but because of delays (the famous fight over Blu-Ray vs HD) it got bypassed by internet streaming speeds that allowed directly streaming Hi Definition movies. Today the tech is all but dead.
It’s possible PHEV or something else does the same to EV’s.
You are right. It’s not written in stone. However to jump the Early Adopter chasm and bridge the divide to full EV we have Hybrids that will take that function and get people used to operating in a slightly different manner and allow time for the technology to mature more.
Not one mention of the fact that in the NET NET materials area, EV’s are NOT as Green as regular cars. It takes loads more diesel equipment to mine materials.
The entire sham might un-do itself if they stop lying and get real.
Mining is working on cleaning up. There is momentum in the world to change.
Exactly. When has the world been wrong about anything?
Hahahahaha…. I like that you just make stuff up…. your creativity is amazing
KTLA News crawl 2 on Tuesday: “battery electric bus service in the Antelope Valley has been suspended.” Apparently, electric busses aren’t working out well there.
Burbank City Council is forcing dedicated bus lanes on Olive Ave. Currently, i don’t see a need for that. The Council ignored citizens opposed to it. The leftist mayor said he wouldn’t support Schiff for Senate, unless he supported a cease fire in Gaza. The dedicated bus lanes ruling is ideological, not because of legitimate need due to dramatically increased bus traffic.
If you elect stupid people you get stupid policies.
Doug78: Nailed it!
Dumb is as dumb does.
Its more corruption via “campaign donations” than stupidity.
Way Way too early . . . Too Bad Governments and Politicians never really look at the details before they shoot their mouth off . . . Going to be Car lots full of new unsold EVs soon.
Demand for engine rebuilds is going up.
In my view, EVs have hit market saturation. Those that wanted one have already bought one. Some of those that purchased an EV experienced serious buyer’s remorse. I have no doubt that EVs are here to stay, but the growth they experienced during multiple rounds of stimulus will be difficult to replicate for quite sometime. Until EVs are a one for one swap with an ICE vehicle (taking into account purchase cost, range, maintence costs, charging cost, and charging availability, etc) the average Joe/Jane will largely steer clear of them.
“EVs have hit market saturation.”
Concur. I could see the logic of a small EV for commuting within an urban area and having a charger at home. That might make sense. But still, what will that same EV be worth when sold as a used vehicle. I suspect that they will increasingly not retain their values viz. gasoline-powered cars.
EVs actually come out ahead over time.
Not if you’re in an accident and your battery needs to be replace and/or you need serious repairs. Insurance companies are totalling new cars in accidents due to the cost of batteries and repairs. Not all body shops do repairs on EVs.
Jeff, you forgot to include the 8 asterisks needed to make your statement true.
I suggest you walk or only ride a bike the rest of your life.
Walk the walk if you’re gonna talk the talk. Stop killing the planet, and kill humans instead! Endless wars forever!
YES! However if you suggest taking the bus… a bike … or walking … the green groopies will suggest you are crazy.
It’s kinda like telling Al Gore not to fly in his private jet.
Sure they do Jeff… sure they do… (as the resale value of your boondoggle collapses further every day… and your battery life degrades)
The great thing about ICE — is that you still get the same range … from every tank of petrol…. how cool is that!!!!
This explains the hilarious depreciation curve on all EVs.
It’s gonna get a LOT steeper in the coming months… cuz the hype is bursting
Eventually you run out of fools.