Tesla’s (TSLA) quarterly deliveries in the first quarter of 2024, are down 8.5% from a year earlier. It’s the first quarterly decline since 2020. 
Tesla blames production setbacks for the Decline in Quarterly Deliveries, but falling demand is the bigger issue.
Tesla reported its first year-over-year decline in quarterly deliveries since 2020, badly missing Wall Street’s expectations and stoking further concern about the company’s growth prospects this year.
Elon Musk’s electric-vehicle maker delivered 386,810 vehicles globally in the first three months of 2024, down 8.5% from a year earlier. It was the company’s lowest quarterly performance since the third quarter of 2022.
First, the company halted output at its plant in Germany for two weeks beginning in late January, citing parts shortages stemming from attacks on ships in the Red Sea. Then, in March, the assembly line ground to a halt once more after an arson attack on the grid that supplies power to the factory.
Meanwhile, Model 3 production tumbled in the U.S. as the company introduced its refreshed version of the car domestically.
Tesla produced 433,371 vehicles in the first quarter, down from 440,808 in the first three months of 2023. Most of them were Model Y crossovers and Model 3 cars. The company didn’t disclose how many Cybertruck pickups it produced.
The gap between production and deliveries suggests “that beyond the known production bottleneck, there may also be a serious demand issue,” Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner wrote in a note to investors.
The company’s first-quarter performance calls into question whether it will be able to achieve even modest growth in 2024, Rosner added.
After years of chasing 50% annual growth on average, the highflying carmaker has warned of “notably lower” growth in 2024, and Chinese rivals are nipping at its heels.
Tesla’s Auto Growth Heydays Are Over
I side with Rosner. Tesla’s heydays of surging demand growth for Teslas is over. Competition is increasing and relative demand growth, if not absolute demand growth, is falling.
If Tesla can scale up semi production that would be a big boost. But Elon Musk has been promising 50,000 semis a year, every year for four years and has delivered a grand total of 100.
Tesla has a drought of new products and competition is catching up everywhere. It’s autonomous driving features are an outright joke. More importantly, they are a huge safety risk.
Tesla far lags Waymo on autonomous driving features and safety.
Every year since 2017 or so, Musk has said he would deliver fully autonomous driving in two years. Waymo is close. Tesla is not even in the ballpark due to flawed design.
Tesla Recalls Nearly All Vehicles on US Roads
In December, Reuters reported Tesla Recalls Nearly All Vehicles on US Roads Over Lack of Autopilot Safeguards.
Tesla, is recalling over 2 million vehicles in the U.S. to install new safeguards in its Autopilot advanced driver-assistance system, after a federal safety regulator cited safety concerns.
The largest-ever Tesla recall appears to cover nearly all vehicles on U.S. roads to better ensure drivers pay attention when using the system. Tesla’s recall filing said that Autopilot’s software system controls “may not be sufficient to prevent driver misuse” and could increase the risk of a crash.
Hardware and Musk’s Mouth
The recall is a software issue. However, hardware and Elon Musk’s mouth are much bigger issues.
Musk keeps hyping fully autonomous driving when Tesla is not even close. Then Musk blames “driver error” when drivers attempt to drive as Musk claims.
Tesla Semis Hype vs Reality
Elon Muck said he would be producing 50,000 EV semis a year. That was in 2017.
As of December 21, 2023, the Tesla Semi Fleet Has Almost 100 Trucks
Tesla delivered the first Semi trucks in December 2022, but little has been said about the Class-8 truck or its dedicated production line at Giga Nevada in the past year.
Now, Tesla’s VP of Engineering Lars Moravy reveals that Tesla has tripled its Semi fleet, with volume production planned for 2024.
It took Tesla 5 years to produce a single truck. And we are now up to a grand total of 100, almost.
Only 35 Class 8 Truck EV Charging Stations
One of the things holding up use of electric semis is expense. A second is the number of charging stations.
Let’s discuss some of the obvious flaws in Biden’s latest mandates that will require EVs to account for 60% of new urban delivery trucks and 25% of long-haul tractor sales by 2032.
Please note there are 4 Million Semis on the Road, Only 35 Class 8 Truck EV Charging Stations
And Electrek says Tesla’s giga factory is only about 30% complete and Tesla hasn’t expanded the facility for years.
After years, there is finally some movement at the giga factory. Electrek thinks it may be work on a parking lot.
For the 5th year, Musk is hyping 50,000 electric semis without having a factory to produce them. And now Tesla auto sales are falling.
TSLA Monthly Chart
Fundamentally, Tesla is dramatically overpriced. Technically, a descending triangle is a bearish formation.
It’s a long way down to a reasonable valuation.
Dear Jeff Green
Musk has been promising fully autonomous self-driving cars in two years, every year since 2017.
Tesla technology seriously lags Waymo, and likely everybody’s at this point.
Musk has promised 50,000 semis “next year” for about 4 years. He has delivered a grand total of 100.
His giga factory is 30% complete at most. It is unclear if it is even being worked on.
There are only Only 35 Class 8 Truck EV Fast Charging Stations for the entire nation.
The US grid is unprepared for the charging stations and Biden’s forced rollout.
Consumers are balking too, despite subsidies. That has the US automakers dramatically slowing production.
Note to PapaDave or whoever it was that asked.
“Ignore” feature is being looked at by WordPress
Not sure how long it will take
Woohoo! Thanks Mish! It would be great to filter out the conspiracy kooks, misinformation morons, and hate mongers.
I want to be able to efficiently focus on people who actually have something worthwhile to say. Which saves me a lot of time.
It’s not that difficult to simply scroll past a comment made by someone you don’t care for. I tend to read most comments. Even the “kooks” have something interesting to say from time to time. Limiting your ability to see alternative ideas, regardless of how “kooky” you may think they are, puts in you in a self imposed echo chamber. That’s how world works now though. To each thier own.
In my experience, it is very rare to read something worthwhile from many of those who comment here. It’s the same garbage in virtually every post. They are simply not worth my time. Even skipping their posts is unnecessary effort. An IGNORE button is more efficient.
Wait, so you admit “…it is rare to read something worthwhile from many of those who comment here..”,and yet you keep coming back to the comments? Seems like a giant contradiction to me. Why waste your time on comments at all if that is the case?
Absolutely. I have made millions by getting investment ideas from a handful of very bright people in the comments section of this blog. That is in addition to Mish’s excellent economic analysis.
Those two things mean I will keep returning and occasionally wading through the piles of excrement that appear in this comment section.
An ignore feature would reduce the amount of excrement I have to wade through.
I agree. Lots of unhinged bullshit in the comments, and I will eagerly implement an ignore feature.
I find it is important to know what the loons are thinking. Especially as they appear to be running the asylum.
This☝️☝️☝️☝️☝️
Safe and effective was a lie. There was a government conspiracy to promote the lie. The government also keeps a lot of secrets. Every one requires a conspiracy in order to keep it. Mainstream media is propaganda. That is not by Accident. It is by design. Interesting how they all parrot “threat to our democracy.” No conspiracy there, right? Mika on MSNBC telling us that it is their job to tell us what to think. Also odd how the open mouth committee of the FED times their statements, to influence market participants. Good cop, bad cop.
Lol! Even you are aware that you are a conspiracy kook.
I look forward to ignoring you completely.
Yeah, crazy how when you storm the Capital people start talking about “Threats to Democracy”. That’s OK…Angry Orange Mussolini Wannabee will keep losing his cases.
As far as Jeff Green goes. He is just a wild eyed optimist when it comes to EVs. Like those who think nuclear fusion or a cure for cancer is right around the corner.
Sadly, EVs are just a huge distraction and will take many decades to have much of an impact on emissions.
As I have predicted here many times, I suspect that PHEV sales will overtake EV sales within a few years. Demand is strong for PHEVs and wait times are up to two years long as supply cannot meet that demand at this point.
Jeff is in the Elon Musk Cult. There is no saving him
There is the long road ahead. Volvo is coming out with a 35000 dollar car this year, and Tesla is expected to come up with their $25,000 car built in Mexico. I think Mish you are celebrating the demise of the industry way too soon. Shifting to battery based propulsion is a big deal and will have some hiccups along the way. But be certain, the gas car is on its way out..
.npr
/2024/02/07/1227707306/ev-electric-vehicles-sales-2024
Not so fast. Take a closer look, and a different picture emerges.
After a record year in 2023, EV sales are expected to set another record in 2024. The CEO of Hertz says the company “may have been ahead of ourselves” in how quickly it moved toward EVs — but maintains it’s the right long-term plan. Ford and GM are shifting their timelines, not their targets. And Tesla, of course, remains all in on EVs.
A slowdown in sales growth doesn’t signal that EVs aren’t coming. To the extent that it’s prompting a reckoning, it’s over the pace of the journey, not the destination.
“We’re just going from, we like to say, rosy to reality,” says Stephanie Valdez-Streaty, with Cox Automotive.
“Our data shows consumer interest, EV availability and EV affordability are all hitting the highest levels that we’ve seen,” says Elizabeth Krear, of J.D. Power. “Nearly one-third of all consumers now say they are ‘very likely’ to consider an EV for their next vehicle purchase.”
Hi Jeff. Glad to see you admit that EV sales are not growing as fast as you had hoped. It is important to be realistic.
What is your opinion on PHEVs? I think that PHEV sales will exceed EV sales in 3 or 4 years time.
You probably know this, but here it is anyway: Volvo Car Group is owned by Zhejiang Geely Holding of China.
I’m not sure if the US is going to try to prevent their sale here because they are Chinese.
Poor Jeff… he’ll go down with the EV ship.
BTW – I informed the Volvo salesman that I had no interest in a hybrid either… why? Cuz the warranty on the battery is 8 years … and the replacement cost at this time is $6000 … so the only way to sell the thing as it approaches or exceeds 8 yrs will be to offer a massive discount.
Cuz only a total fool would buy something with a battery coming off warranty without said huge discount.
It’s kinda like trying to sell an 8 year old Samsung phone… hahahahahahaha
The guy was kinda stunned … he thought about it … then said — I see your point.
Can you run the hybrid still if the battery needs to be replaced? It seems it would be cost efficient just to run it with gasoline.
Batteries rarely need replaced. That’s why warranties keep getting longer and longer and this is a tired trope.
Yes. Your point is on top of your head.
The Largest Auto Market in the entire world…BY FAR has already made its move.
China hit nearly 50% Plug-in sales last month. The Legacy ICE makers are literally dying there.
GM / SAIC just announced they’re cutting 30% of their employees. VW / SAIC is also cutting its employees significantly in China. It’s the ICE employees, not the EV employees that are going bye-bye.
ALL the automakers will convert to EVs in China…or die in that market. Almost NONE of them can afford to die in the world’s largest Auto Market. They need the SCALE.
Doesn’t matter what you think…or what an auto salesman says.
The trends are clear. Globally EVs are taking over…it’s now inevitable. There will be Plug-In Hybrids sold for a decent while…then those will go away too. Two different mechanical systems with all the maintenance issues and parts, that will keep stealerships happy with maintenance…but won’t last.
Most automakers are Global…so they can’t afford to have their ICE sales plummet in TWO of the Three largest markets representing more than TWICE the size of the US market…and still try and pretend that it makes sense to keep ICE vehicles going for a decade or more beyond when they’re needed, while their sales continue plummet.
They’re building EV plants in Mexico…only a matter of time before they’re importing them to the US, just like GM and Ford have been doing for years.
Since I believe AGW to be a serious problem, PHEVs are just a half way solution. That is my personal point of view. Being that switching over to EVs is a really big jump in people’s minds, its a start. I jumped into a short range car as my first EV with only 64 mile range. For me, I had access to other family’s vehicles when I needed them. That kind of management helps me to use my EV in rural areas with less or no fast chargers.
The $25,000 Tesla will have Chinese involvment in it. Its going to be hard to make things cheap without the Chinese. I don’t think India is ready to fill those shoes for us.
Volvo Car Group is owned by Zhejiang Geely Holding of China.
Americans don’t pick our vegtables and fruit, nor clean toilets. Some do, but not enough of them do. We thrive on cheap labor that are not US citizens.
I am well aware that AGW is a serious problem. I am also well aware that we cannot do very much about it.
EVs are simply an example of how little we can accomplish to fight emissions. Transportation accounts for 20% of global emissions. Road transport is 3/4 of that, or 15%.
After two decades of promoting EVs we now have roughly 40 million on the roads globally. Compared to 1.5 billion ICE vehicles. Thats less than 3%. Assuming they are emission free (and we know they are not) that would reduce emissions by 0.45% max, and probably only 0.1% at best.
We can do 100x more by replacing coal with natgas in the next decade. For 1/100 the cost. To get the equivalent reduction with EVs will take a century to accomplish.
You’re barking up the wrong tree.
Climate has always been a serious problem. Hurricanes are not a recent development. They sank ships in the Carribean during the Little Ice Age, when Spanish conquistadors were stealing the gold. The US had a new record 12 year drought of CAT 3+ hurricanes during Global Warming. The “never ending” California drought has ended three times now. Probably next season will be a drought year again. How long till the next El Nino? Who knows?
Yep. There has always been natural climate change and extreme weather. And scientists can give you a complete history of it, going back 4.5 billion years. I bet you make use of their data all the time. Such as “the earth has been warmer”, “CO2 has been higher” etc. All that info comes from the scientists that you now disparage.
Science explains that the earth has been in a natural cooling cycle for thousands of years now. And it should keep slowly cooling for many tens of thousands of years more.
Scientists can also explain how mankind has impacted and even overwhelmed this natural change over just the last few hundred years; reversing 6000 years of cooling in less than 200 years. And now we are moving rapidly in the direction of more warmth and more extremes.
Of course, I don’t expect a cult conspiracy follower such as yourself to ever realize this. You are too far down the rabbit hole.
Looking forward to that ignore button.
“We can do 100x more by replacing coal with natgas in the next decade.”
In the US, sure. Sort of. And even here, only temporary. On any meaningful global scale, not at all.
As the rest of the world develops, the US is becoming increasingly small and irrelevant, as far as global scale “problems” go. And almost everywhere else, the only realistic answer to natgas vs coal, is both. In addition to oil, nuclear and any renewable which can make even a small contribution.
People need energy. Any source they can get it from economically, will be exploited. The delusion that some “we” can indefinitely pick and choose only the “nicest” and most “premium” energy sources, while discarding all others, is a hangover extrapolation from the postwar era, when the US was where “all” energy was used, and Americans could hence freely pick and choose the choicest sources from across the entire globe, leaving the less attractive offering undeveloped.
These days, and forward, it will all be developed.
A rarity. I agree to a large degree with your comment. If you keep making sense, I might not add you to my block list.
Its happening right under your nose. Maybe someday you will see or maybe you won’t. All kinds of products have rode the S curve.
.bloomberg
news/articles/2024-03-28/electric-cars-pass-adoption-tipping-point-in-31-countries
Electric Cars Pass the Tipping Point to Mass Adoption in 31 CountriesOnce 5% of new-car sales go fully electric, everything changes — according to a Bloomberg Green analysis of transitions underway across four continents.
New technologies have a tendency to blindside. When color TVs were introduced in the 1950s, for example, they seemed like a flop. The devices were expensive, programming was scarce, and after a decade on the market few homes had one. Then suddenly prices dropped, a ratings war ensued, and in just a few years most US households were watching The Jetsons in its futuristic palette.
A comparable shift is currently underway with electric vehicles, according to a Bloomberg Green analysis of adoption rates around the world. By the end of last year, 31 countries had surpassed what’s become a pivotal EV tipping point: when 5% of new car sales are purely electric. This threshold signals the start of mass adoption, after which technological preferences rapidly flip.
I don’t disagree about the eventual mass adoption of EVs. Where I disagree is how quickly it will happen and how much of a difference it will make to emissions.
EVs are less than 3% of all vehicles today. I will be optimistic and say 8% by 2030, 20% by 2040, and 40% by 2050. (I include both EV and PHEV in those percentages.)
And how much difference in global emissions will that make by 2050? Perhaps 3%. Which is insignificant. And CO2 levels will have increased from 425 today to 475 ppm by then.
Our world will be much warmer by 2050. Weather extremes will be much worse. Plants will be happy. But humans, birds, animals, insects, ocean life, etc will be suffering.
Driving an EV will not change anything.
Driving an EV will not change anything.
It already has changed.
EV credibility took a major hit in the Chicago cold snap. How much energy does it really save if you have to keep the car plugged in all night to keep the battery warm?
Down south they are more practical.
I live in the Chicago area and mine along with 1000s of other Illinois people did just fine. If it bleeds it leads. Panic sells. I was driving mine in below zero weather and had no problems.
The credibility hit was only among those who didn’t know that batteries of all kinds do worse in cold weather.
I just bought a Volvo XC40… I was offered the EV version and I laughed in the salesman’s face letting him know if you try to push anything on me with a battery I will leave.
I was also looking at a Lexus… funny story… I dropped by a dealer to test drive a couple of their ICE vehicles…
The guy did not try to push an EV or a Hybrid on me….
I asked him how sales were going with the EVs… given the bad press of late and he said:
WE HAVE NOT SOLD A SINGLE EV LEXUS SO FAR IN 2024.
Hahahahahahha… seems they are running out of suckas…
Mish has previously posted all the downsides of owning an EV… there are ZERO upsides…
Peak EV bitches… peak EV … hahahahahahaha
I was at the dealers recently for service and commented to the Cadillac manager on the high numbers of the Lyriq cadillac ev’s sitting in the lot. He also said no one wants them despite the fact that its cost is competitive with most off the ice models. He states they were forced to take them from GM.
Schadenfreude has its time line and will soon end.
You are denying reality Jeff. NOBODY WANTS THEM.
What part of that don’t you understand?
Tesla sales are tanking — mainstream manufacturers are discontinuing them.
LOL LOL LOL. That is really funny. You don’t realize how solid Tesla really is. The world is going EV and you are ever so reluctant to accept it. I’ll enjoy watching you struggle with this.
Please address all these points:
Basically, anyone that rents, is traveling, cares about the environment, wants to tow stuff, wants a vehicle that depreciates less, wants cheaper insurance and repair bills, wants safety, wants to fill their tank to 100% fast, doesn’t want a stupid EV.
Teslas hold their values. Cyber Truck towes excellently. EVs are simpler and break down less. No gas station fill ups. You can charge off of a 120 volt outlet. Meaning less time to the supercharger. EVs are 11 to 20 times less likely to catch fire. Gas stinks. EVs have no smell and way less pollution.
OH? https://finance.yahoo.com/news/used-ev-prices-are-collapsing–and-tesla-is-the-reason-why-144449893.html
When interest come back down, it will be interesting to see where this goes. Other EV sales are doing really well. Its just a short term wiggle in the long upwards S curve.
Given a computer cannot think… then safe self-driving cars… are an impossibility
I seem to think you are experiencing schadenfreude at this dip in sales.
I’m actually satisfied with the TESLA approach to the semis. I’m hoping this go slow is about keeping quality high. Interesting though nobody has come close to a 500 mile semi like Tesla has.
I see this is that Tesla is no longer in the do or die mode. Which it is a company that is maturing in its ability to be a thriving business.
Also this is a company that is taking the bigger risks to get out ahead of the competition. Tesla is now doing the one peice castings that no other auto manufacturers are doing. Truthfully its really impressive. To those that take the risks come the rewards. ICE companies are lagging way far behind on EV technology and manufacturing.
I’m not concerned about Tesla. They are where they are supposed to be in the S curve of change. Its the legacy autos that need to worry.
what if your wrong/incorrect? Will you ever admit it?
What would you like me to be wrong about?
Does Telsa pay you to post this nonsense? Surely you cannot believe this stuff otherwise you’d starve to death
I gladly put time into blogs this. It is lively conversation with people expressing their differences. I am on another site as well. If you ever decide to sample electric driving, it’s an interesting experience. The economical EVs are arriving in a few years. This stuff takes time.
The legacy gas manufacturers were caught flat footed on this one and they are trying to catch up. The ones that can lose money in the beginning to reach profitability will make it throught the transition. Others just may fail.
Mish has detailed the downsides of owning a Fossil Fuel Charged EV.
Hertz is the perfect example demonstrating the more EVs that people buy/rent… the faster EVs are going to go extinct.
You’ve got your cult lunatics who refuse to acknowledge the downsides… who go out and buy an EV… and even when faced with all the downsides — refuse to criticize EVs… because they believe they are saving the world — they grin and bear it.
But there is a limit to mentally ill people of this nature.
Once EVs start to penetrate the mainstream — the average person buys/rents one — and gets right pissed off when reality hits in the form of all the downsides.
And they will not hesitate to spread the word that buying/renting an EV was a terrible decision.
Obviously that is what happened with Hertz… that along with the other negative press (see trying to charge an EV in cold weather)… is spreading far and wide … and the masses are no longer buying the hype.
Like I said — the Lexus dealer in a major city has not sold a single EV in 2024.
EVs will soon be the new Edsels hahahaha
You’d have to be either dumb … or not care about burning $$$ to buy one of these Coal and Gas Powered contraptions
Both EVs and ICE vehicles have down sides and up sides. I prefer the ups and downs of EVs over living with ICE.
Do you even pay the least amount of attention to what is going on in the world? You are quite the blowhard. Should you even look at this link and go to the years that gas sales are going to be banned. Some start as early as 2025 and most on the list are before 2050. This tells the car companies gas cars are history at some point. If you are young enough, try running your gas car when it doesn’t have support any more.
.wikipedia
/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehicles
Countries with proposed bans or implementing 100% sales of zero-emissions vehicles include China (including Hong Kong and Macau), Japan, Singapore, the UK, South Korea, Iceland, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Slovenia, Germany, Italy, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Portugal, Canada, the 12 U.S. states that adhered to California’s Zero-Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Program, Sri Lanka, Cabo Verde, and Costa Rica.[2]
How is an EV zero emission when the vast majority of electricity used to charge them is produced using fossil fuels?
Let’s take China for instance… most of their electricity is coal generated — and the % is growing hahaha
link to statista.com
I am thinking…. given the delusional world you live in … that you trust the science… believe in Safe and Effective and you have had…. 7 Covid shots… and can’t wait for the next one.
Not only are EVs growing in numbers but so is RE and storage. RE will grow and FFs will shrink in time.
NOT POSSILBE
Let me know which part of this you don’t understand Jeff.
I am standing by to help
Replacement of oil by alternative sources
While oil has many other important uses (lubrication, plastics, roadways, roofing) this section considers only its use as an energy source. The CMO is a powerful means of understanding the difficulty of replacing oil energy by other sources. SRI International chemist Ripudaman Malhotra, working with Crane and colleague Ed Kinderman, used it to describe the looming energy crisis in sobering terms.[13] Malhotra illustrates the problem of producing one CMO energy that we currently derive from oil each year from five different alternative sources. Installing capacity to produce 1 CMO per year requires long and significant development.
Allowing fifty years to develop the requisite capacity, 1 CMO of energy per year could be produced by any one of these developments:
4 Three Gorges Dams,[14] developed each year for 50 years, or
52 nuclear power plants,[15] developed each year for 50 years, or
104 coal-fired power plants,[16] developed each year for 50 years, or
32,850 wind turbines,[17][18] developed each year for 50 years, or
91,250,000 rooftop solar photovoltaic panels[19] developed each year for 50 years
The world consumes approximately 3 CMO annually from all sources. The table [10] shows the small contribution from alternative energies in 2006.
link to en.wikipedia.org
“To provide most of our power through renewables would take hundreds of times the amount of rare earth metals that we are mining today,” according to Thomas Graedel at the Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies. So renewable energy resources like windmills and solar PV can not ever replace fossil fuels, there’s not enough of many essential minerals to scale this technology up. link to energyskeptic.com
Renewable Penetration link to gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com
Renewable Energy’s $2.5 Trillion Problem link to technologyreview.com
Renewable energy ‘simply won’t work’: Top Google engineers
Two highly qualified Google engineers who have spent years studying and trying to improve renewable energy technology have stated quite bluntly that whatever the future holds, it is not a renewables-powered civilisation: such a thing is impossible.
Both men are Stanford PhDs, Ross Koningstein having trained in aerospace engineering and David Fork in applied physics. These aren’t guys who fiddle about with websites or data analytics or “technology” of that sort: they are real engineers who understand difficult maths and physics, and top-bracket even among that distinguished company.
Even if one were to electrify all of transport, industry, heating and so on, so much renewable generation and balancing/storage equipment would be needed to power it that astronomical new requirements for steel, concrete, copper, glass, carbon fibre, neodymium, shipping and haulage etc etc would appear.
All these things are made using mammoth amounts of energy: far from achieving massive energy savings, which most plans for a renewables future rely on implicitly, we would wind up needing far more energy, which would mean even more vast renewables farms – and even more materials and energy to make and maintain them and so on. The scale of the building would be like nothing ever attempted by the human race.
In reality, well before any such stage was reached, energy would become horrifyingly expensive – which means that everything would become horrifyingly expensive (even the present well-under-one-per-cent renewables level in the UK has pushed up utility bills very considerably).
link to theregister.co.uk
/
Jeff???? Jeff???? Where did you go buddy????
Jeez I hope you didn’t go get that booster shot … and have a bad outcome
Solar – After Hundreds of Billions of Dollars of Subsidies and R&D and this is what we get?
hahahahahaha
link to reneweconomy.com.au
Then just SHORT Tesla Mish…
Short Term money can always be made…
But Ford, GM and several other Legacy Automakers are much more likely to go BK in the next few years than Tesla.
Anyone that’s followed Tesla since 2009 or 2010 or 2012 knows that shorts have been handed their arses numerous times by TSLA. We ALL know that.
GM / SAIC is losing its arse on ICE vehicles in China…30% of their workforce is being laid off.
VW is losing 10% of its workforce with its SAIC partnership in China.
ICE vehicle sales in China are collapsing.
Plug-ins reached nearly 50% of all light passenger vehicle sales in China in March…the largest market in the world.
EVs are being exported by most manufacturers who have factories in China, which is most of them.
The CyberTruck is cranking up and is / will be pacing at 50,000 per year. They’ll sell every single one they produce.
Global Demand for EVs has continued to rise…at the expense of ICE vehicles.
It’s now inevitable. (It really HAS been for years but even the luddites will begin to see it now that the largest market in the world has pushed close to 50% Plug-ins.)
Keep wishing on a star that everyone who buys an EV will go back to OIL suckers. Not gonna happen.
Cheers!
For me this is a welcome sign. For others, well, tell me what this means to you. 86% increase is a really nice little jump.
//electrek
./2024/04/03/ford-takes-second-us-ev-market-price-cuts-take-effect/
Ford takes second in US EV market after sales climb 86% as lower prices take effect
Jeff – it’s dangerous to follow EV Fan Boy sites… they give you a slanted picture i.e they lie.
If Tesla … the marquee EV brand is experiencing this
Tesla sales plunge far more than expectedhttps://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/02/business/tesla-sales/index.html
Then the entire market is set for an implosion.
I recommend you sell your EVs urgently … before there are completely worthless.
Oh … and make sure to get another booster shoot… cnnbbc are still insisting they are Safe and Effective.
(even though you can still get covid even if you shoot every booster on offer hahaha)
Something has got you triggered big time. Time to calm down there fella.
Teslas hold their value better than the ICE cars.
A recent study from iSeeCars.com showed the average price of a 1- to 5-year-old used EV in the U.S. fell 31.8% over the past 12 months, equating to a value loss of $14,418. In comparison, the average price for a comparably aged internal combustion engine vehicle fell just 3.6%.
According to iSeeCars, dramatic drops in used electric vehicle values in the U.S. have largely been driven by aggressive price cuts by Tesla amid a broader price war in the EV market.
“If [Elon Musk] continues to reduce Tesla prices in an effort to stimulate sales, he’ll continue to pull the entire market down, as he did over the past 15 months,” iSeeCars’ Brauer said.
link to cnbc.com
Slashing prices on new Tesla’s is hardly a vote of confidence in the EV market hahaha…
The problem is — demand is waning — because people are realizing EVs are a money pit
Another reason for optimism. The EV industry is quite healthy. About 176,000 chargers in the United States, with 900 more being added each week. The author of this blog doesn’t show us these numbers.
axios
/2024/04/03/electric-car-transition-hybrid-consumer-options
By the numbers: Americans bought a record 1.2 million EVs in 2023, according to Cox Automotive’s Kelley Blue Book. That’s equivalent to 7.6% of the total U.S. new-vehicle market, up from 5.9% in 2022.
But EVs’ share fell back to 7.1% in the first three months of 2024.Cox is sticking with its forecast for 10% EV share by the end of 2024 — for now at least. Throw in hybrids and plug-in hybrids, and Cox says “electrified” vehicles could comprise almost 24% of new car sales by then.Between the lines: Wider EV adoption faces two big hurdles: affordability and charging access.
Most EVs are still priced like luxury cars.
Prices have come down a bit, but their average selling price in February was about $52,300 — almost 20% higher than mainstream non-luxury vehicles, according to Cox.Cheaper EVs will help attract mainstream buyers, but stubbornly high interest rates are making car loans more expensive.The U.S. currently has about 175,800 public charging ports, with an average of 900 new chargers opening each week, according to federal data.Of those, about 41,400 are so-called “DC fast chargers” — the type you’d want for long trips.The rest are slower “destination chargers” meant for topping off your EV while you’re shopping, working or eating.Yes, but: Charging network needs vary depending on where EV owners live, the Energy Department notes.
The agency expects 33 million EVs to be on the road by 2030. Of those, 60% will be in the suburbs, 20% in rural areas and another 20% in cities.While fast-chargers will be needed in cities, slower chargers should suffice in single-family homes in suburban and rural areas, DOE says.
Jeff – I suspect you are a paid troll. If you are not then you have some form of mental illness that prevents you from seeing reality
I get my sources and you can look at them if you want. Small minds think their own opinions are reality.
Now now Jeff… why don’t you take your meds with a warm cup of milk so as to better enjoy your time in DelusiSTAN
Great analysis Mitch, I would add as always.
One more thing, call it an intangible…… He is now on the outs not only with this administration, but the Democrat Machine. That Democrat machine has corrupted every Government agency in America.
Elon Musk better watch his financial back so to speak.
Batteries are still in their infancy in development. This easily competes with the diesel engine in lower cost of operation. This is one of many reasons why the transition will happen sooner than you think. Nearly a million mile warranty. Papadave says I’m toooooo optimistic. Reading articles like this is being grounded in reality about my optimism.
CATL launches new EV battery with close to a 1 million mile, 15-year lifespan
electrek
2024/04/03/catl-launches-new-ev-battery-last-1-million-miles-15-yrs/
CATL, Yutong launch new long-life EV batteryCATL launched the battery pack with Yutung Bus Co to power commercial vehicles like buses and different classes of trucks.
Yutong, one of China’s largest bus makers, said the new battery packs will be used in upcoming electric vehicles. According to the company, the new long-lasting EV battery has zero degradation through the first 1,000 cycles.
The new EV battery pack, made with CATL, has a 932,000 mile (1.5 million km), 15-year warranty. Yutong calls the long-life battery an industry first.
The bus manufacturer introduced another battery with a 10-year and 621,000 mile (1 million km) lifespan.
CATL and Yutong first established a ten-year partnership in 2012 to jointly develop commercial vehicle batteries while exploring new tech and materials. The partners plan to leverage their resources to expand overseas with new vehicles and batteries.
Mish, what’s with your filter? It lets every disgusting antisemitic comment through, but blocks mine.
While a moment of schadenfreude exudes from a few, one of the smarter investors is solid on EVs. Yes I am optimistic. Tempered with realism.
thinc
/2024/04/03/investor-bullish-on-evs-tesla-and-ai/
Cathie Wood has been a successful investor in high tech stocks over the last decade, including, prominently, Tesla, and is a huge bull on EVs in general.
Here she makes some bold statements.
Tesla is going to be the autonomous Taxi network.
Tesla epitomizes the convergence of technologies.
Robotaxis are not an if, but a when.
Robots, energy storage, artificial intelligence are the converging technologies.
Autonomous vehicles are the biggest AI play in the world.
In 5 years, 75 to 85 percent of US auto sales will be electric, and the average EV will be in the 20 to 25 thousand dollar range.
Tesla will be trading at 2000/share in 5 years.
The World overall, is not even remotely ready for EV’s. Only well developed countries have the overall capabilities to support them. Even many of those, like the EU & U.S. currently, are still struggling with infrastructure needs. That doesn’t bode well for gathering further interest, and in something that already struggles with that due to cost and technology, in many cases. Add on low cost foreign competition and Hybrids now as an alternative to EV’s, and the advancement of much more preferred GV’s around the World, and EV’s days are far from being widely adopted.
In fact, if they don’t get their collective sh$& together in a hurry, there best days of hope may end up being behind them…
Only a shrinking 10 cent spread between diesel and unleaded in California. This tells us all we need to know.
What does it tell us?
All we need to know
It tells us that military, freight, and airline usage of diesel is a fragile market, and that necessity usage of the automobile is carrying the full weight of petroleum markets. Yesterday I saw the spread went down to only 5 cents a gallon. The price spread is only a 1% difference. Diesel prices have remained flat while unleaded has gone up seasonally.
Tesla presents quite a quandary for the greens, the globalists and the government. They love electric vehicles but hate Musk. Will love trump hate?
Come on: 35 Charging Stations to 100 Trucks is a better ratio than Tesla Sedans!
😉
The first EV surge is over and as always, the early adopters came from those who bought them for the technology aspect. The next surge will come from the price advantage EVs will have over ICE cars. Not everybody is obsessed by cars and most people want their car to be reliable and cheap enough to afford and that’s it. EVs will increasingly fit the bill because they are cheaper to make, run and fuel. The adoption of any new technology rarely goes in a smooth curve and EVs are no exception.
As for self-driving software, the more companies competing the better. After all the drop in civil aviation accidents over the decades has not come from better pilots but from better software.
Semis are a different market altogether and depends on strict economics of the particular company and the specific function the semis will be used for. Undoubtedly some will find them useful. How many and how quickly, I don’t think anyone knows at this time.
This slowdown is good for the legacy ICE manufacturers but it will not last long and they know it. EV market share is much lower in the US than in Europe let alone China and the trend has not reversed back to ICE. They are using this time to retool and especially to study Tesla’s manufacturing methods to copy them.
Empirical results show that might not be true. Time will tell.
It certainly will.
OT- it seems Florida isn’t all it’s cracked up to be .
link to nbcnews.com
Left-wing media doesn’t like right-wing states. Somehow I am not surprised.
Since the other automakers like Ford announced reduction in EV manufacturing, I am not surprised by this bad quarter for Tesla.
This is why EVs are dead: Basically, anyone that rents, is traveling, cares about the environment, wants to tow stuff, wants a vehicle that depreciates less, wants cheaper insurance and repair bills, wants safety, wants to quickly fill their tank to 100%, doesn’t want a stupid EV.
What problem do they solve? The only “problem” they solve is ICEVs just don’t accelerate fast enough for some people.
One would have to be mentally ill to buy an electric pick up truck. Try hauling any significant amount of weight and watch your range plummet.
hahahahaha…
EVs are fossil fuel powered – and manufactured – jokes.
Safe and Effective!!!
I’m convinced fools exist for our amusement. I just wish they lacked so much influence. They say dumb things like “EV is a new technology” WTF? They been using them on the golf course for what, 50 years?
This is not about Musk, this is all about no SSB solution and no infrastructure.
I
We need more coal-fired power plants to provide the electricity to charge the EVS!!!
A question for you Mish. You have been a big fan of self-driving or autonomous vehicles for several years now. Have you changed your opinion on how quickly they will become commonplace? I used to think we would see full autonomous sometime in the next decade. Now, I’m thinking it will be the 2040s instead.
I actually think they are ready. Not Tesla, Waymo. I believe the slowdown is gov’t bureaucracy. They are ready now. Trucks should be easier, at least point-to-point on the interstate. It appears cars may be first.
It is bad enough insurance companies feel they are gonna be destroyed when all these climate change claims come in for new homes in the next few years (house premiums up 33% in 2023 — 2024?). And no insurance company is gonna insure a vehicle that is driven solely by a computer — especially in an urban environment. I guess driving a car isnt as simple as everyone thinks it is.
Somehow you seem to imagine that ICEVs aren’t chock full of semiconductors. Remember a couple years ago when both ICEV and EV vehicle availability declined because chis weren’t available? LOL
I “hope” that you are correct as it would probably save many thousands of lives per year eventually.
But I personally doubt that full autonomous is ready now, other than very specific closed systems. Only time will tell. I will stick with my 2040 prediction.
Secondly; you seem to be wary of EVs yet everyone working on autonomous seems to be focusing on EVs exclusively. Will autonomous also be applied to ICE vehicles? Or will it be just for EVs?
The following is from a GM website:
“Whether you’re a human driver or an AV navigating public roads, reaction time matters. By the nature of their design, electric propulsion systems have lower latency and more consistent response when accelerating. As a result, when compared to internal combustion counterparts, an all-electric AV will have a lower delay between the time it decides to make and the time it completes a maneuver“
AVs can be ICE or EV – makes no difference to the technology. The money side of AVs is interesting, along with the public’s perception of safety. You can safely ignore what the car companies PR people spout.
There’s no doubt that fully autonomous vehicles (that’s when the vehicles are connected to all other local vehicles and react with them) will almost end “accidents” and the related costs and damage we currently accept. This will put many out of work (lawyers, medics, body shops, insurance actuaries etc. etc.) and put downward pressure on adoption. However, the drop in deaths and injuries will drive adoption then add to the available labor force.
However, just like the adoption of EVs will take decades to achieve full conversion (if at all), full adoption of AVs (with my inclusion of interconnectedness) will also take decades – ALL road vehicles will have to meet the legal technological threshold. My 1952 MG won’t cut it; but I’ll be dead by then.
Recent events in California have marked a significant uptick in public unrest concerning the proliferation of autonomous vehicles, culminating in a dramatic episode where a driverless taxi was set ablaze in San Francisco’s Chinatown.
The incident is not isolated but part of a growing series of protests that underscore the public’s mixed feelings toward the burgeoning self-driving car industry.
In a startling act that caught the attention of both local authorities and national media, a Waymo-operated Jaguar I-Pace was the target of a mob’s fury during Lunar New Year celebrations. Eyewitness accounts and footage shared on social media by the San Francisco Fire Department show the vehicle being vandalized and torched, a sign of escalating tensions between the community and proponents of autonomous driving technology.
Or not … link to wired.com
With the recent progress of sentient-like AI robots, autonomous driving may be closer than people think. AI tech from the big traditional companies such as Google and Apple is not doing very well. It may end up taking a human-like robot to bring us truly autonomous driving.
I feel vindicated, having been a pretty fierce Tesla critic ever since they promised that Lotus conversion Roadster for $90K and delivered it more than a year late at $130K. Tesla’s biggest problem is that, even though they do the batteries and powertrain reasonably well, they pretty much suck at the car side of everything they do.
The suspensions are bad, the cabin electronics stink, the fit and finish is substandard, and like every Silicon Valley company they have terrible customer service and blame all problems on the customers. What made their bones was sticking big electric motors in the cars, fuel economy be damned, to take advantage of electric torque. That, plus the early adopter buzz, is what really did it for them.
Even the absurdly high prices helped by making Teslas a Rolex on wheels (just as Rivian does right now), not to mention the laughable virtue signaling of the owners, at least until Musk’s politics turned wingnut. What will really kill them is that the Models S and X are at the end of the usual vehicle model cycle, and the Model 3’s downward dog is fast approaching. The “Cybertruck” is an ugly, laughable, overpriced joke that is getting terrible reviews, and there is nothing visible at the mass market level to enter a mainstream market.
Past that, Musk picked the wrong technology for full self driving, using cameras instead of LIDAR and radar, or a combination. Tesla’s cars are just as vulnerable to the slow charging issue as any other EVs are. The so-called “superchargers” are a little faster, but they are still a slow insult that will not cut it in the mass market. Stop for an hour every 200 miles to fill ‘er up? Good luck with that.
If there’s one thing maybe going for them, it’s that there is room to cut prices given the high gross margins. What they have done so far is laughable. To get it going, Tesla needs to come out with a cheap Model 2, and dramatically cut the price of the Model 3. We shall see.
Briefly mentioned is that the Model S is now 12 years old and looking dated (no other car still looks like it did 12 years ago). Model 3 starting to get long in the tooth now too.
Gonna cost a lot to refresh the models because it means the entire assembly line has to be reworked.
Exactly! When I first saw them, I thought they looked nice. Now they look old.
I still remember looking at a Model S in a showroom in Portland when they were new. Three instant impressions. First was that they had hired the dumbest girls in that showroom. Booth babes. They didn’t know a single thing about the car. Second was that the back seat felt claustrophobic. Third was thinking, “Who in hell would ever want that obnoxious screen up front?”
I was wrong about the screen. Obviously, the tech bros loved it. There’s a smaller one in my diesel pickup truck, but I can turn it off. I wonder about the Model S, which I immediately compared to a 1980s-style Ford Taurus. At the time, Tesla could get away with it because no one else was in the segment. Today, not so much.
In any case, I really do wonder if Tesla has another pig in the python, car-wise. I would be amazed if they don’t, but I have been amazed before, including by the felony-stupid geek wing doors in the Model X that kinda sorta worked when they worked.
Ya just never know.
Nobody is buying sedans these days. Model S is a sedan.
Sounds like something Yogi Berra said – something like “No one goes there any more – it’s too busy.”
That may be true but the Y and 3 suffer from the same problem. Tesla doesn’t have any plans to update them because they single model cast the vehicles and changing that is very expensive.
So they will keep churning out the exact same car while other manufacturers refresh theirs every few years. You think they like doing that? They don’t but they do it because consumers demand it and are used to it.
Sedan sales are about 30% of the total. That’s a smaller share than what once was, but its far from nobody. And I’d like to see what the share of station wagons was in the goodle days. The SUVs are the new station wagons.
my 1956 chevy still looks good to me
I love old car designs, but there is a flip side. Those cars were death traps compared to today’s vehicles, and the average ones were much less comfortable than today’s average vehicle. They were cheaper, but they didn’t last as long.
Abroad an additional problem is more competition as this Zero Hedge article suggest:
link to zerohedge.com
AWD 500 mile range for ~ $42K
I haven’t seen efficiency data yet. I’m still waiting on Aptera to start production where they are sure to blow everyone else away on driving efficiency.
I was interested in the Aptera when it first appeared, but let’s face it: There is no significant market for a three-wheel car. They are much less stable, and lack traction in snow.
Tesla has self driving feature available in its cars (at least some). The cost is $200/month or $12,000. I am not sure how this feature compares to Waymo. I do not know of any other EV with the self driving feature available now.
Tesla hasn’t been selling as much of that (full price or subscription) as they’d like. They are currently offering 1 month free as a trial. In effect it’s a subsidy similar to what ICE manufacturers offer with low interest rates or cash back etc.
In the end, I suspect self driving cost is going to drop like a stone until it’s given away free because other manufacturers are doing similar things and once someone gives it away they will all have to do it. Or it will be legislated by government (via insurance companies) in some manner that forces it to always / never be there for safety reasons.
A lot of hype around Tesla was that it was a software company that sold vehicles as loss leaders for the software subscriptions. Investors are discovering they bought a car company that has excess software and that this company has 100x the valuations of ICE manufacturers for some reason.
If one has a death wish … set the car to self drive… and take a nap…
A fad worse than parachute pants and break dancing but way more entertaining. I feel bad for those that bought the sizzle but that is life. General rule of thumb; NEVER listen to the US Government when they tell you the righteous path or, even the Pope:
link to youtube.com
Who could know what the EV Insanity has cost US taxpayers to date, not to mention other countries?
Price, some models tax credit expiring, increasing options in the EV space, unwanted product relative to cost/ease of refueling in existing infrastructure… oh and I’m sure to some degree the former love of Musk by the left face-melted away when he bought Twitter. I don’t think the hard core left appreciates the free speech unleashed when he bought the formerly FBI-censored Twitter and i would bet some would refuse to give him one dime now. Just a guess. I wouldn’t buy one for all the reasons mentioned previously–it’s an introduction of a problem that I don’t have now nor wish. I want a vehicle with unlimited range in a climate zone that punishes EV range. Do I think my worry may be misplaced? Perhaps, but I don’t need one more thing to worry about. Today I get in and drive to Des Moines without range risk nor refuel concerns. I head to SW Missouri and fuel up once in 5 minutes just outside of KC. (or at 2,000 places between here and there)
That depends entirely on whether or not the solid state battery hype comes true.
Hopefully its a case of people getting smarter and realizing that a dedicated electric vehicle with no way to move itself forward when the batteries are dead is about the dumbest thing you can spend your money on.
I can cite positives and negatives about EVs, but please do tell us just how a dedicated ICEV moves itself forward when the gas tank is empty. Thanks much. LOL
Gas can be carried in a can to refuel a hybrid or normal car.
A gallon of electrons is a different matter.
You carry a can of gas in your car? LOL
What are the positives?
Smoother and quieter ride, faster acceleration, wide torque band, charge at home overnight, less maintenance, better cornering due to heavy battery on the floor, faster heating in winter. They are viable urban commuter cars, but not suitable for road trips. You don’t want to run out of juice, but nor do you want to run out of gas in the vehicles with fuel injection.
The main negatives are higher current acquisition cost, battery degradation, lack of charging stations, long time to charge, poor towing and hauling, major reduction in cold weather range. If the solid state story is true, those problems will go away and so will ICEVs. Even before then, with the current battery chemistry, acquisition costs will equal ICEVs before 2030.
All of these are engineering issues. I don’t care about the political yammering or the climate bullshit, and I don’t think they should be subsidized. They are cars, not causes in either direction.
Hey there, sorry if someone already commented that if EV’s were going to save mankind then they wouldn’t be more expensive than ICE, in fact…
They’d be FREE.
Anything short of that calculation puts one, (not you, of course ),in the hyper hypocrite posse.
Humans are dumb, yes?
Let’s save the world by making the solution un affordable….
Gawd, i must be a low brow jabberrwaukie?!
Huh?
Make the solution to our problems affordable or better, free, or STFU.
PLEASE EXPLAIN HOW MAKING THE SOLUTION TO CLIMATE CHANGE MORE EXPENSIVE TO FREE IS THE RIGHT APPROACH?
Looking forward to answers that will retard, (it’s a French word), CLIMATE change as each of you separately define it.
Mahalo
Sounds like an argument for Marijuana. It should be free, but it isn’t, due to govt intervention!!!
I have never once thought EVs were the solution to climate change. I have never done anything but laugh at that idea. It might help that I don’t accept the anthropogenic global warming hypothesis to begin with.
a 1968 Cadillac does all those things
The key issues with EVs are as follows.
The cost upfront is much higher.
Financing charges are higher.
They depreciate at a higher rate than internal combustion cars.
The insurance is more expensive, by at least 25 percent.
Repairs are much more expensive, if you can get them done at all, and take longer.
Tires are more expensive and don’t last as long because the car is so heavy.
Refueling is not easy and missteps here can have nightmarish consequences.
They are more likely to catch fire.
Any motor vehicle accident that impacts the battery can lead to repairs higher than the value of the car, that is totaled with so much as a scratch.
To top it all over, there is no longer any financial advantage to the driver. It now costs slightly more to charge under many conditions than to refuel with gasoline.
The novelty of driving one for a day wears off after the first day. At first they seem like the greatest thing that ever happened, like an iPhone with wheels. That’s great but then the problems crop up and people start to realize that they are fine for urban commutes with home chargers and not much else.
They make truly terrible rentals. Obviously, under rental conditions, people have to use charging stations rather than a charger in the garage. That means spending part of your vacation figuring out where to find one.
Not all are superchargers, and if it is a regular charger, you are looking at an overnight wait. If you do find a station with fast chargers, you might have to wait in line. They might not work. You waste hours doing this. And you likely have to reroute your trip even to find a station without any certainty that you will get a spot with a functioning charger.
No one wants to do this. When you rent a car, all you want is a car that goes the distance. And typically car rentals are for going some distance else you would just take a taxi or a Lyft from the airport. You might need to drive several hours. And god forbid that this takes place in cold weather because that can reduce your mileage by half. Your whole trip will be ruined.
Why in the world would anyone want to rent one of these things rather than a gas-powered car? You might be better off with a horse and carriage.
link to zerohedge.com
Forgot to mention – they are manufactured using fossil fuels – they are charged using fossil fuels.
DUH
EVs are charged using the same electricity that any other appliances use. It all depends on where someone’s juice comes from. Where I live, less than 3% of the juice comes from fossil fuels. The vast majority comes from hydro. Some from wind (I am no booster of wind turbines, but they are here.) Some from a nuke about 100 miles away.
To me, EVs are a niche vehicle. If your needs align with that niche, they are a viable choice. The addressable market is much larger than it was, but is does not cover the entire personal transportation market. If solid state batteries at a low cost come true, ICEVs will be history, but that is a big if.
I will say it over and over and over again: These are cars, not causes. It is ENTIRELY about engineering and NOTHING else. The political wrangling about EVs is whipped cream on dogshit from both sides.
The EV “haters” remind me of the story about J.P. Morgans father Julius, who told his son that electric lighting was a fad not worthy of attention or investment. Ol’ J.P. took over the bank after dear old dad kicked the bucket, and backed both Edison and (the original) Tesla, and then forced them to consolidate via Tesla’s alternating current. The rest is history.
EVs are all about the batteries: their cost and their energy density. The current thinking, with which I agree, is that solid state lithium batteries are the great white hope. If they happen and perform as promised, ICEV goes the way of the kerosene lamp. It will be ENTIRELY about the engineering.
Sorry to burst your bubble mate:
Distribution of electricity generation worldwide in 2022, by energy source
link to statista.com
I don’t get my electricity from the whole world. Do you? LOL
Global coal use expected to hit all-time high in 2023, IEA says
link to theglobeandmail.com
China is surging ahead with coal, a new report shows, rapidly approving and building new power plants despite its own promises to cut back on carbon.
Last year, the country approved the highest number of new coal-fired power plants since 2015, according to the report, released Monday by the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and the Global Energy Monitor (GEM).
link to edition.cnn.com
Could this be because people have been buying more EVs… and needing to charge them?
Replacement of oil by alternative sources
While oil has many other important uses (lubrication, plastics, roadways, roofing) this section considers only its use as an energy source. The CMO is a powerful means of understanding the difficulty of replacing oil energy by other sources. SRI International chemist Ripudaman Malhotra, working with Crane and colleague Ed Kinderman, used it to describe the looming energy crisis in sobering terms.[13] Malhotra illustrates the problem of producing one CMO energy that we currently derive from oil each year from five different alternative sources. Installing capacity to produce 1 CMO per year requires long and significant development.
Allowing fifty years to develop the requisite capacity, 1 CMO of energy per year could be produced by any one of these developments:
4 Three Gorges Dams,[14] developed each year for 50 years, or
52 nuclear power plants,[15] developed each year for 50 years, or
104 coal-fired power plants,[16] developed each year for 50 years, or
32,850 wind turbines,[17][18] developed each year for 50 years, or
91,250,000 rooftop solar photovoltaic panels[19] developed each year for 50 years
The world consumes approximately 3 CMO annually from all sources. The table [10] shows the small contribution from alternative energies in 2006.
link to en.wikipedia.org
“To provide most of our power through renewables would take hundreds of times the amount of rare earth metals that we are mining today,” according to Thomas Graedel at the Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies. So renewable energy resources like windmills and solar PV can not ever replace fossil fuels, there’s not enough of many essential minerals to scale this technology up. link to energyskeptic.com
Renewable Energy’s $2.5 Trillion Problem link to technologyreview.com
Renewable energy ‘simply won’t work’: Top Google engineers
Two highly qualified Google engineers who have spent years studying and trying to improve renewable energy technology have stated quite bluntly that whatever the future holds, it is not a renewables-powered civilisation: such a thing is impossible.
Both men are Stanford PhDs, Ross Koningstein having trained in aerospace engineering and David Fork in applied physics. These aren’t guys who fiddle about with websites or data analytics or “technology” of that sort: they are real engineers who understand difficult maths and physics, and top-bracket even among that distinguished company.
Even if one were to electrify all of transport, industry, heating and so on, so much renewable generation and balancing/storage equipment would be needed to power it that astronomical new requirements for steel, concrete, copper, glass, carbon fibre, neodymium, shipping and haulage etc etc would appear.
All these things are made using mammoth amounts of energy: far from achieving massive energy savings, which most plans for a renewables future rely on implicitly, we would wind up needing far more energy, which would mean even more vast renewables farms – and even more materials and energy to make and maintain them and so on. The scale of the building would be like nothing ever attempted by the human race.
In reality, well before any such stage was reached, energy would become horrifyingly expensive – which means that everything would become horrifyingly expensive (even the present well-under-one-per-cent renewables level in the UK has pushed up utility bills very considerably).
link to theregister.co.uk
Not that manufacturing solar panels, batteries, and wind mills is exactly a green activity hahaha…. these involve massive industrial processes that operate using diesel and electricity from fossil fuel sources.
Hey bud… I don’t expect you to change your mind based on these facts…. that would be like trying to extricate seme one from a cult…
Make no mistake – this ‘green’ movement … is a cult …