Bury Head in Sand Approach
Mexico shuns Covid-19 testing even though Half of All Covid Tests Are Positive.
The sky-high results are easy to explain — though not so easy to fix. The Latin American nation has stubbornly shunned wide-scale testing and instead runs exams only on the sickest of patients. Deputy Health Minister Hugo Lopez Gatell in late May said anything more would be “a waste of time, effort and resources.”
Throughout the pandemic, Mexico and parts of Latin America have reported positivity rates that dwarf anything seen from China to the U.S., including new trouble spots like Arizona and Texas. With half of all tests coming back positive, Mexico ties only Bolivia for title of the world’s highest rate. In Argentina and Chile, almost 3 out of every 10 exams lead to a Covid-19 diagnosis. And in Brazil, where 1.4 million people have been infected, no one knows for sure because the government doesn’t release that data.
Hey, Why Bother?
Mexico vs Russia vs Germany Population
- Population of Mexico: 126.2 Million
- Population of Russia: 144.5 Million
- Population of Germany: 82.8 Million
Mexico vs Russia vs Germany Tests
- Mexico: 581,580 Tests
- Russia: 19,852, 167 Tests
- Germany: 5,873,563 Tests
Question of the Day
- Q: What do these numbers suggest?
- A: Mexico is broke. It cannot afford wide-scale tests nor can it afford to shut down the economy.
That is why Mexico sticks its head in the sand and pretends “testing is a waste of time, effort and resources.”
Mexico is in a terrible no-win situation.
Meanwhile, back in the US, The Recovery Will Have Many Shapes, Not One.
Also note that The Fed Promotes a Quickening that Takes Many Years.
Mish
Nice to read here latest covid updates of different countries. I hope all are safe and recover soon.
Regards, Alyssa. http://www.secureassignmenthelp.com/statistics-assignment-help/
Your ans, Mish is 110% correct. Man, sometimes you kill it….oops, sorry for the metaphor. Oh, by the way, its a waste of time here also; for other reasons
Black lives matter. Indeed.
All lives are not to be considered at this time. Or, one is a accused and canceled.
A lot of discussion about herd immunity, scientists are not even certain immunity will even last for more than a few months with covid.
If natural immunity doesn’t last more than a few months, then in all likelihood, there will never be an effective vaccine.
Herd immunity in Mexico?
Population 126 million.
Reported cases 239 thousand.
If they are finding only 1 in 10, that’s 2.4 million cases. 1 in 20–4.8 million.
100 million required for herd immunity.
No herd immunity in sight in Mexico.
Mexico may have a point.
I find today’s US infection rate statistics almost unintelligible. Are these new positive cases all verified with PCR tests, antibody tests, or some combination of different tests? Are the tests all highly sensitive and specific or are some not very good? How many of the people being tested have symptoms and how many of them do not have symptoms at the time they are tested? How many separate tests are repeat tests being run on the same individual who keeps getting tested as a way of continually screening himself or herself?
Meanwhile, since it is no longer possible in the US to focus containment efforts on only infected individuals, what good are these tests except to screen people who will be in contact with high risk individuals or as a diagnostic tool to confirm a course of medical treatment for those who are sick?
This X 1000.
When this started, the big demand was for more testing. And the big complaint was that we weren’t testing enough. As a result, we were told that they would “ramp up testing” and we did. In April, I think the number was about 50K per day and now we I am pretty sure we are at over 500K per day.
The problem is that there is no structure or common methodology to the test protocols. When you go to a testing center, you’re asked if you have any symptoms – that’s the extent of the protocol. All anyone has to do is lie and claim they have a symptom. And as you said (and as my daughter actually did recently) one can go from center to center and be tested multiple times on the same day. If you do that, and get a positive result multiple times, my guess is that you go into the system as multiple cases as well since there doesn’t seem to be any data sharing going on between the testing centers.
To make matters worse, we test with a variety of kits from a variety of sources and no one seems to have a handle on what the actual (versus advertised) accuracy rate is for any of them.
Even the hospitalization stats are skewed because hospitals are testing people who are admitted for some other reason and if they show positive results, they are being listed as Covid-19 patients even if they have no symptoms and report that they’ve never had any.
Still, in the end, we continue to make very important decisions that affect the lives of over 300 million people based on this shit-show.
I was recently tested for the virus. It’s been 48+ hours and I’m still waiting for the results — not complaining, just stating. I have coronavirus-like symptoms, but I might a flu bug.
If my test shows negative, was it a ‘false’ negative? Especially if my symptoms persist, do I need to be tested again? When? How often?
Even more, if I haven’t contracted the coronavirus, that means I still might. Then I will need to be tested again. How often?
I’m not sure what needs to be done, but testing more and more, while increasing the data points, may not help us to control the spread. So, everyone gets quaratined again? We know the downside to that.
Maybe Sweden has the right model and Mexico has figured this out.
Mish, he’s right. Herd immunity is at 70 to 90%. Mexico is very close.
Also please note that “herd immunity” does not mean the virus is gone or that someone who is susceptible but hasn’t been exposed will not get it. It simply means that the available hosts have dwindled to the point where the transmission rate of the virus is next to zero.
There can still be bursts and spikes of cases if the virus gets into an area with multiple viable hosts, but overall the more exposure a given population area has, the slower the virus can propagate.
Only two end games, suspension of rights forever or herd immunity. Name your poison. I, for one would rather take my chances with Covid-19 than live forever under the present circumstances.
While South Korea, Japan, Taiwan & HK did implement some mitigation strategies, like suspending schools and encouraging work from home, their economies didn’t really close and have been open from since the beginning of the crisis. Mandating mask use, maintaining social distancing, and implementing contact tracing can work as long as you start very early.
We’re getting a watered down “mish” since going to theStreet.com. This posting is a joke. … Test only the sick – get a biased statistic. Mish… you can do a lot better filling up your quota of words.
Most People With Coronavirus Won’t Spread It. Why Do a Few Infect Many?
Growing evidence shows most infected people aren’t spreading the virus. But whether you become a superspreader probably depends more on circumstance than biology.
By Carl Zimmer
June 30, 2020
Following a birthday party in Texas on May 30, one man reportedly infected 17 members of his family with the coronavirus.
Reading reports like these, you might think of the virus as a wildfire, instantly setting off epidemics wherever it goes. But other reports tell another story altogether.
With 57k+ cases yesterday we must have 2500+ superspreaders.
Everyone keeps saying “cases” when what they should be saying is “positive test results.”
The tests only know that the RNA for coronavirus is in the sample. It doesn’t say when the individual was exposed or if they are contagious. For all the test knows, the exposure could have been months ago and the symptoms – if they every had any – are long gone.
Until a few weeks ago, most states and localities were only testing those who went to a hospital with symptoms and breathing problems. At this point, there are free drive-up testing centers everywhere and people without symptoms are getting tested for any variety of reasons. And if the tester asks if they are having symptoms, they say “yes” because they want to be tested. Hell, my daughter went to three different centers and was tested three different times this past Monday because her employer demanded it after she was out sick Saturday with a stomach issue. They refused to let her work Sunday and told her they needed a negative test result before she could come back. The first center told her the results would take a week, so she went to two others trying to find one that could do the “instant” test. In the end, the third one did it in a day. And yes, it was negative.
For the longest time, the CDC and a bunch of other agencies were saying that the virus was far more widespread than anyone thought. All we are getting now is confirmation of that fact along with further confirmation that as widespread as it is, the number of those actually having life-threatening symptoms pales in comparison.
Now of course some of those new infections will be superspreaders say 2% like the article says. So now we have an additional 1140 superspreaders. Yup the math still sucks. Social distance, for gods sake don’t go to an inside location with people that are not wearing masks, wash your hands. If we all do this “It will magically disappear” and tRump can be correct, well accept for the “magic” part.
Meanwhile in Texas, new counting protocols turn 1 positive case into 17 ‘new cases’ count:
The President of Tonga(?) sent in a test of animal tissue and a fruit: both came back positive. The tests aren’t all that good. The ‘pandemic’ is over in the States but fraud and political corruption are making it look like it is about to rage through the country again. Biden is in his basement so he doesn’t have to campaign – since nobody shows up when he does – and so he can attack his political rival for doing such a bad job – when of course everyone on his side is doing whatever they can to make things as bad as possible.
The President of Tonga….really that is what you are going with BaronAsh…!
mmmm, that’s from the NYTimes?????
Why are all these southern and mid west states backtracking on opening up businesses and now requiring face masks in public? Where is the outrage and the demonstrators screaming for an easing up of COVID restrictions? Why would a silly thing like record numbers of daily infections suddenly cause anyone to change their viewpoint? Get back to work everyone. It is no worse than the flu. Bunch of wimps.
THis might have something to do with it….
Connecticut backtracked on opening bars later this month because positive tests are on the rise again.
You could test everyone, everyday, for a year, and isolate all those infected, and afterwards the virus would still start circulating again.
The guy in the black suit runs Spain
And his main advisor is below.
I would say that Mexico is part Spanish culture, except even many Spanish detest this kind.
Until if the twitter link passes
Coronavirus was circulating in brazil in november 2019: https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200701/SARS-CoV-2-circulating-in-Brazil-back-in-November-2019.aspx
Study pending peer review. 1st half hour is interview.
I’m in Tucson and local doctor of HOSPITAL with 50 doctors has 1 doctor who got covid-19 – FROM HIS HISPANIC housekeeper
HOSPITAL has THREATENED employees that they will FIRE them if they report 90% increase is HISPANIC
There goes Trump’s pretense of protecting Mexico from COVID in Texas by building a wall between the US and Mexico.
Mexico is a failed state in the throes of a decades-long narco civil war.
If it weren’t so sad, it would be funny if the cartels provided testing. They are the de facto state, after all.
Better to be ruled by Narco Cartels than banksters.
At least the Cartels produce something, anything which has some value to someone. And hence aren’t entirely dependent on teaming up with the junta to rob third parties for their sustenance.
We’ll get there as well, though. When all fruits of every attempt at any even semi productive endeavor, is systematically stolen to be handed to bankster garbage, people can respond in only one of two ways: Revolution, if they have the brains and insight to figure that out; or criminality if they don’t.
I’ve pretty much given up hope in the drone masses comprising the pliant American indoctrinati ever figuring out the benefits of the former so: The latter it will be. Kidnap the kid of some bankster trash, or whore yourself out to his dad, and get paid better for it in a week, than with a lifetime of productive work…..
Alabama students throwing ‘COVID parties’ to see who gets infected WOOHOO!!
That is wise. They are not at risk. Good to have positive antibodies.
LOL! Is that you Don?
Why would anyone on planet earth give a care to what DT says about any health issue? I only look at statistics and research. But I’m a math guy, I can’t help it.
If you are a math guy who looks at statistics you would realize that they apply to population samples, not individuals. So it is the all too common foolish mistake of too many people to say “the rate of death among those 20 and under is a very tiny X% so MY chance of dying (since I am 20) is that very tiny X%”
WRONG.
So when you write “Its a Darwin Award only if you are at risk of dying. And at age 20 they have a near-zero risk of death.” you suggest that you are not much of a math guy.
Nor are their parents or grandparents I assume?
What’s truly sad, is that the junta is effectively runing interference for the idiots, by barring those effectively exposed to higher risk by their partying, from throwing Wilhelm Tell parties with them a targets.
The obsession with testing is idiotic.
Reasons to test:
Testing informs public health officials how the outbreak is moving through the community. This doesn’t require millions of tests, but sample data to extrapolate. They can run tests on people who present with critical symptoms, and others at random when they come for non-Covid treatment. Any decent public health statistician can work with that. The obsession with testing everyone is stupid and wasteful.
Everyone keeps ignoring that the test aren’t reliable even in rich countries like US. Now maybe that’s just deliberate corruption. Maybe the ones in Taiwan and SK are excellent. Maybe Mexico has those same ones, maybe they don’t. But you can’t just talk about ‘testing’ as if all tests are created equal. They aren’t. In any case, thus far Mexico’s death count is 1/3rd that of US on Mish’s chart, so they aren’t doing that bad, however who knows how accurate their count is? But also: who knows how accurate the US count is? Lots of funny policies there – though of course pandemic fans choose to deny it and insist there is massive under-counting, just as they choose to ignore how much of a political football the whole thing has been from Day 1.
There was a reason Nancy P delayed the impeachment for a month…..
I wonder what it was…..
Surely it had nothing to do with a pandemic outbreak in Wuhan that needed incubation time and a worldwide release leading up to Chinese New Year in late January? Nah, they wouldn’t do anything like that now, would they? Just like they wouldn’t start race riots all over the country just to win an election, now, would they? Nah… entirely spontaneous event from deep-rooted issues inflamed by the racist bigot Orange Man Bad in the WH, nothing to do with us!!!
Yes all the data points to the risk from C19 being far less than the extreme measures taken to flatten the curve.
Of course I could be wrong. Hopefully I’m not. But from an odds/risk perspective things are looking good.
As a 71-year-old, I say “thanks for thinking of me”.
He did think of you –
You got all of line item 2. — unfortunately.
Didn’t you get the memo “all lives don’t matter”
I had it and when tested for antibodies two months later, I had none. So much for the antibody tests. Worthless.
Let’s see your source data supporting point #4. You did not even geofence your claim.
Where does random antibody testing show that as much as a third of the population has been infected?
maybe they will be the first to achieve herd immunity. time will tell.
Since the CDC has stated we only capture 1 in 10 cases in the US… i wonder what that rate is in Mexico? Maybe 1-20 or 1-50?
But, on the brightside HCQ is back in the “helpful” column as a C19 treatment with this retrospective study done by HenryFord Hospital – the key is to treat is early! And statistically is better than remdesivir.
And before you “poo-hoo” the study for not being a RCT, just remember that not a single RCT study shows that masks have any impact on slowing C19 – all the data is retrospective, observational or theoretical based practical flow tests, just like this HCQ study – you can’t have it both ways.
The deaths are the key metric. Mexico is showing over a 10% death ratio. That, combined with the 50% positive ratio tells you that they are only catching a tiny fraction of cases, perhaps 1 in 50.
I think (opine) that it shows Covid19 is not the killer portrayed (portrayed being the operative word here)
When Mexico makes a move to the Top 10, you’ll realize that 4 of the countries there are in the American continent.