Here are some Tweets from people I follow that merit discussing.
Surveillance Not Working
Carbon Footprint Sarcasm
Deficits Matter
The Mexico Border
Savings Are Contracting
Last Gasp at Good Earnings
Stunning Drop in Consumer Credit Due to Student Debt Repayments, What’s Next?
If you missed it, please consider Stunning Drop in Consumer Credit Due to Student Debt Repayments, What’s Next?
Twitter is like a virtual conference room where reality doesn’t exist. Very similar to being a vegetarian and not expecting to get eaten by carnivores.
I wonder if the welfare/warfare chickenhawk uniparty of RINOcrats is going to be wishing they had a bigger Plunge Protection Team by the end of the week.
The media propaganda apparatus is going to have their hands full this week and may have to dial back airtime on toxic masculinity, privilege, and Orange Man Bad! to get everyone to support the new current thing!
How do they figure interest will take 20%+ of tax revenues in 2030 or thereabouts? The debt is growing, fast. The bonds that expire in the next few years will roll over into a much higher interest rate and the deficit each year needs yet more new bonds.
Have the calculations only factored in say 5% yield on the new bonds when they might go higher, much higher.
Egypt is currently paying 24% yield on new bonds and the interest payments are approaching 40% of the governments revenue. Where Egypt is today might be the US in a few years as your federal debt will exceed 50 trillion this decade.
The idea of ending wars is like a wet dream. Israel is about to wipe Hamas off the face of the earth. Effectively Hamas’ surprise attack and Israeli intelligence failures are their 9/11. Now there will be no mercy. Hamas has gone the route of Putin by taking Israeli civilians and especially women captive.
Anyone who thinks ending wars will happen is like a vegetarian believing they won’t eaten by carnivorous angry animal in the jungle. Libertarians and liberals have this is common.
after the USSR fell, the idiots on right wing said it was now peace dividend forever. i remember arguing with wall street analysts, in my company and others, they couldn’t really believe that nonsense? but alas they did. why the PNAC was formed, and we thankfully to those slime bags the twin tower attacks on 9.11.01. the rest his history. hat tip to authors of PNAC for their evil ways. i’d prefer they die from anus cancer. on 9.11.01 i knew they got what they wrote they wanted. the old raygun/bush crime family war mongers…………..
I suspect there is far more at play here than some random attack. From all indications this was well planned and kept very quiet suggesting deep planning. If so, there is likely a phase 2 to this whole thing that people aren’t expecting or thinking about.
It came on the 50 year anniversary of the Yom Kippur war. Is there a new hidden coalition? Who knows but I suspect more is coming.
I was planning on a better entry point on RTX but now may be a good time.
It isn’t hidden at all. It’s there for all to see although many close their eyes and hope it goes away.
Years ago gasoline was dumped at sea as it was a useless by-product of making kerosene. I assume we can do that again.
An unlikely possibility. I would think that surplus gasoline from all over the world can be purchased by African countries and India at low prices and used for electricity generation. Something I mentioned earlier. Of course, the extra shipping requires more use of other fuels.
“Deficits might matter again, as estimates interest costs of deficit could eat up >20% of tax revenue by 2032”
That equals 1/5 of our Government’s Tax Base Revenue! For perspective, say your Family is bringing in $2,000.00 per month, and just scrapping by, and then you were told that 2K per month is now going to be Only $1,600.00 per month, what would/could you do? Have your Family take 1/5 less medicine a day? Will that disrupt your medicines purpose with less? How about eat 1/5 less, so you eat only 1 piece of toast, and 1/2 glass of milk and skip all fresh Veggies for canned and less nutritious and a less tasty substitute. Will that disrupt your caloric, and vitamin intake, and therefore your health?
What if you get sick because of this cut back and need care, or medicines? You can’t afford the medicine unless you cut back more on your food and other medicine perhaps? See where this went and how fast? That’s called REALITY!!!
“The Biden administration says there is an “immediate need” to wave regulations and build a border wall as the migrant crisis spirals out of control”
Funny how the Migrant Crisis (glad to see them call it what it is for a change) was not a crisis at all, UNTIL the Democrat Cities started screaming… Sure, when the Cities filled with Grifters, Free Theft, Free Housing, Free Food, Free Money, Free Everything People, they start to get antsy when “The Free Ride” is coming to an end. Biden Inc. can’t have that message getting out, so shut them up and appease them quickly, with More Tax Revenue from the Citizens! If these 5? Million Invaders don’t get what they came here for and were promised quite frankly by “Old Joe”, then they Will Just Take It!!!
“Savings Are Contracting”
No surprise, an they have been for the better part of the last 2 years for just about everybody that is a day to day individual, and Not Connected!
“Stunning Drop in Consumer Credit Due to Student Debt Repayments, What’s Next?”
No surprise there either, and this will affect several areas of the economy. The kids, if you will, have been living it up with the money they had for College, but has been blown for parties, eating out, clothes, makeup, sneakers, autos, travel and more… Unfortunately everything and anything that wasn’t educationally related. That is, by the way, exactly what the Government wanted these kids to do!! Keep the economy charade afloat with other peoples money meant for education, then force them (recourse loans) to pay it back by garnishing wages, tax returns, and any form of income that you may have. Kids become debt slaves overnight, and will vote for ANYBODY offering them free stuff, debt forgiveness, write downs of debt, etc. They become paddy in the hands of bill collectors and the garnishment of their wages.
The Sheep are being led to there slaughter, and they will take down there Families along with them (especially co-signer Families) trying desperately, but foolishly to help. In time they too will become broke, destitute and also vote the same way…
Looks like Biden Inc. I’d doing exactly what they planned, and it’s working out perfectly. They should have the Kids and their Parents firmly in there pockets in no time at all now!
JS…
Snowden is officially a Russian citizen and probably will be drafted soon as his utility to Putin is zero now. Steven Seagal is too old but Snowden is the right age.
I can’t imagine any wannabe totalitarian, being keen on drafting Snowden for much of any of the tasks such cretins are involved in. Totalitarians prefer to hire loyal lackeys. Not ngas too uppity to show gratitude to Massa for “giving” them their house-nga jobs.
Some people make really bad life choices and he is one of them. His livelihood depends totally on one man staying alive.
“Governments can offset low gasoline prices with higher gasoline taxes. But that doesn’t solve the problem of refineries producing too much gasoline.”
It may not solve the mix for refiners but it sure solves revenue generation of governments. As the price for gas goes down, the taxes on gas go up. Eventually, if your projection is true, the majority of the price of gas at the pump will be taxes. That is a beautiful cash cow. European governments got on the gas tax train early and generate a lot of revenue just from gas taxes. If my memory serves me right, in France taxes constitute 40% of the price of gas at the pump.
Agree.
Still trying to think about what to do with the surplus gasoline coming out of refineries. Perhaps new industries will develop to make use of this unwanted and low priced product. Assuming they can buy direct from the refinery before gas taxes are added at the retail pump.
I think the extra gas will be mixed back in and burned to produce electricity for EVs. It is the most efficient use of a gas since it contains high energy. You would save money by only having to ship it to the power station than distributing it to a 1000 different gas stations.
I was thinking something similar. Large exports of low priced gasoline from all over the world to Africa, and India, to be used for electric power generation.
Like natural gas for us now. It’s priced as a byproduct in the US. Exporting it by ship makes good economic sense so we do it. Could be the same for gasoline.
Good luck servicing corporate, state, local, and federal debt at high rates.
I know it has already started, but I am assuming many of the self-ordained “brilliant” startup douches will continue to be canaries in the coal mine as expensive debt eats them alive.
Books by Sam Harris and Ryan Holiday will not help the young dweebs now.
Hate to say it like that, but I am quite sick of seeing some of these guys/gals proclaiming themselves to the best thing since Jesus.
Funniest thing I have read in a long while
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/sep/30/the-quotes-were-5000-or-more-electric-vehicle-owners-face-soaring-insurance-costs
Tesla’s insurance business will rake in the profits since they can see how each individual driver drives from a safety point of view in Realtime. That means they can predict who will get into accidents and who will probably not. The bad drivers will have to go to other insurers and Tesla keeps the best.
Problem is that only predicts half the problem since it can’t predict anything about the other driver.
Florida is a great example of that. There is a lot of people here who drive with no insurance. They can’t afford it yet drive anyway so if there is any kind of accident your insurance has to cover all of it. There is also a lot of parking lot ‘hit and runs’. A guy on my hockey team has had his new Tesla hit 3 times in the parking lot already. Nothing major, just minor dents but he’s trying to make claims to get it fixed including paint etc and insurance is giving him major issues because it costs an incredible amount since on Tesla cars so he may not be able to get it fixed.
Define “work”. If it is “useful work” then very few of us would qualify. Then you have “make work” and its twin “government work” and finally we have “bullshit work”. A new category that has appeared since smart phones is “fantastically stupid work that generates a ridiculous amount of money”. It is better to be in the last category.
Being able to predict one half is better than not being able to predict any. That itself from a statistical point of view is very significant and makes it worthwhile.
In the Land of the Blind the one-eyed man is king.
He may be king but he has no inherent depth perception.
A quote from that link: Its figures, derived from quotes, show that insurance premiums for electric vehicles are 72% – or £402 – higher than this time last year, at a typical £959. Meanwhile, for petrol and diesel car drivers, the increase is 29%, or £192, taking the figure to £848.
Those that read my comments, know I have been harping on insurance for a while now. I started investing in insurance companies because it is clear they will be far more profitable moving forward because they are shedding themselves of liabilities like exiting California (forest fires) and Florida (hurricanes). It looks like auto insurance companies are doing the same so I need to research those too. High premiums and lower liabilities = higher profits for insurance companies.
Ultimately, what may kill the housing and auto market is interest rates or capital cost, it will be carrying cost (taxes & insurance). it’s great to be car free as i don’t have to deal with it for cars.
I would like to add something else for folks to think about this weekend.
An interesting aspect of the oil market is the refined products market. A 42 gallon barrel of oil produces close to 45 gallons of refined product: 42.7% gasoline, 27.4% diesel, 5.8% jet fuel, 5.0% heavy fuel (like for ships), 4.0% asphalt, 3.0% light fuel, 2.0% hydrocarbons (like propane and butane), 10.1% other (residual fuels, petrochemical feedstock). Those breakdown percentages are not easily altered.
The demand for every one of those products will continue to increase for decades, with one exception; gasoline. With the increasing number of EVs and plug-in hybrids it will eventually decrease demand for gasoline.
But current refineries cannot significantly alter the product mix without a completely new design. So it stands to reason that gasoline will become a product in growing surplus as EV sales increase. Which means prices for gasoline should eventually decline.
If gasoline prices drop too low, that will likely begin to slow EV sales and reinvigorate ICE sales. A catch 22. Governments can offset low gasoline prices with higher gasoline taxes. But that doesn’t solve the problem of refineries producing too much gasoline.
I do not know how this all works out. But I suspect that we will need to build new refineries with different technology that produces less gasoline than current refineries. It is certainly possible, but the question will be whether it is economically viable to do so.
Have a good weekend.
Papa, gasoline isnt going anywhere. EVs are a rational response to what could be a “peaking” in the production of cheap oil on this planet (just watch the pump prices). We need to try something else. EVs will work for certain, and maybe in a majority of cases, where people: drive less than 40 miles a day (I’ve seen figures that say this is 75% of the population), when its just 1 or 2 passengers (not every car needs to carry 6 kids) and rarely any other weight, and where they live in temperate climate most of the time. The rest of vehicle usage can be with the beloved gasoline. It doesnt have to be either-or. It can be a mix, if its handled correctly. I have a Chevy Volt that runs on batteries, and when theyre dead, it runs on gasoline. This fills a lot of people’s needs. Everyone does NOT have to drive a 100% EV. They probably shouldnt anyway.
I am not sure that you understood what I wrote, or perhaps I could have written it better.
First: I have no issue with EVs, though I personally believe plug-in hybrids are a more practical alternative at the moment. And if gasoline prices do drop, those with a plug-in hybrid can take advantage. I did mention plug-in hybrids in my post as well as EVs.
Second: Yes, we will continue to use gasoline for a long time. The question is how much? ICE sales are already declining. If they continue to decline, we will consume less gasoline with every passing year. But refineries have no choice but to keep producing gasoline in order to get all the other products. If they keep producing the same amount of gasoline each year, but the demand for that gasoline begins to drop, what do you think will happen? It will lead to surpluses of gasoline. And lower prices.
Agree with PapaDave twice
First: I have no issue with EVs, though I personally believe plug-in hybrids are a more practical alternative at the moment. And if gasoline prices do drop, those with a plug-in hybrid can take advantage.
Second: Yes, we will continue to use gasoline for a long time.
I wonder about the life of the battery/replacement costs and whether there are still government subsidies in place for EVs.
I look at it as national security. Diversification of energy sources. If its cleaner bonus. Lower gas prices bonus.
what many don’t calculate is the government sponsorhip of many sectors, from EV to wind, to petroleum and coal. also the calculation of the US navy cost to protect the oil interests around the globe not to mention the offshore factories of amerikan companies all over globe.
If you are rural, especially just west of the Rockies, a hybrid will be preferable until there is no gasoline.
Why can’t gasoline be exported from the US? Usage will go down in the US and increase in the developing world.
Gasoline consumption has been declining/steady in the US for over a decade, mainly because mileage has been improving drastically. The rate of decline of gasoline usage will accelerate in the next decade.
Papa, I don’t believe that you understand the modules and chemical processes refineries use to produce various outputs. The amount of gasoline obtained from a barrel of crude is quite variable and under the control of the refinery operator. It is not simple distillation, although that is one process. Also included are cracking, isomerisation and reforming processes.
The bigger problem is that gasoline sales pay for 42% of the price of the barrel of oil. If there is no demand for gasoline when ICE vehicles go away, then the remaining 58% must pick up the 42% price. In other words the prices of all the other products that come from a barrel of oil (fertilizers, plastics etc) will practically double in price making many things cost an awful lot more.
At the moment there is nothing else economically viable to do with that 42% and there is a reasonable chance there never will be either. The enviro-nuts don’t want to even discuss that problem.
Agree. As I said, demand for everything other than gasoline will continue to increase. Which will result in higher prices for those products. But this is a problem that will develop slowly at first because it’s going to take a few years to see enough of a decline in ICE sales to create a gasoline surplus.
The way around this problem is with new or completely refurbished refineries with new technologies that produce far less gasoline.
Or more exports of gasoline. But I assume this will be happening worldwide so there may be no place to export it to.
Gasoline usage increase in India far outweighs the decline (both past and projected) in US gasoline consumption.
All developing economies will need additional gasoline supplies for a long time to come.
So export is a viable option.
There’s cracking, isomerisation and reforming to make the petrochemicals that you need. The native gasoline will become a feedstock.
Adding to the misery – where will the refineries be built with the politics against fossil fuels? Ancient Chinese curse – may you live in interesting times.
New refineries are being built worldwide and many are planned going forward. Most are in Asia. None in the US. I have not seen much info regarding new technology in these refineries and any fundamental changes to product mix. Which leads me to believe that they will still be producing a lot of gasoline.
Relating to your ancient Chinese curse, two new refiners began operating in China this year, which helps explain China’s recent demand increase for oil imports, which provide feedstock for these refineries. I also assume that means that some of their output is for export.
A simple search brings up a few articles.
https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/petrochemicals/121922-oil-refining-landscape-to-resume-transformation-in-2023-after-hiatus
https://www.offshore-technology.com/comment/global-refinery-projects/?cf-view
https://www.greencarcongress.com/2022/07/20220721-eia.html
https://www.offshore-technology.com/data-insights/global-top-five-upcoming-oil-refineries/?cf-view
My first comment went to moderation. I will try again.
Two new refineries in China this year. Many more planned all over the world over the next decade, but none in the US.
And I have seen no indication of any change to product mix yet, though I am sure that refiners are looking into it.
Which leads me to believe that a possible surplus of gasoline is coming eventually.
Lots of current diesel workloads, can easily be shifted to gas, if relative prices change in a major way for a long time. European passenger cars, for a start…..
For lots of diesel users, it is specifically price which has them picking diesel. For most usages, gasoline is “preferred”, all else being equal: Cheaper to build and maintain; lighter; at today’s emissions expectation more reliable….
There are, no doubt, uses for which diesel is harder to replace. But usecases for the two are interchangeable more often than not.
For a recent example: Take the past decade or two’s shift to outboard gas in smaller boats previously powered by diesel. Now, a small, flammable fiberglass boat way out in the ocean, is exactly the last place I would want to be sitting atop hundreds, to thousands.., of gallons of explosive gas. And that’s not counting how much more tankage has to be squeezed into a small hull, in order for gas engine range to be comparable to denser, more efficient diesel. As well as how much laxer diesel particulate emissions can sensibly be in the ocean than in cities. Yet, gas is what people increasingly prefer, due to total costs skewing in favour of outboards. If it can happen to a machinery industry THAT intrinsicly diesel-favouring, it can happen to most any.
So, don’t hold your breath for $1/gallon to fill up the tank of your V12 Ferrari, while the farmer next door has to pay $10/gallon for diesel….
Good point. There could be a decline in sales of diesel vehicles which is offset by an increase in gasoline vehicle sales in response to increasing diesel prices and declining gasoline prices.
But that assumes that gasoline prices actually decline. If government offsets price declines with even higher taxes, then that removes the incentive to make the switch.
In addition, given the large installed user base, it would take some time for the switch to happen.
But yes, a switch from diesel to gas vehicles would help alleviate some of the gasoline surplus.
“But that assumes that gasoline prices actually decline. If government offsets price declines with even higher taxes, then that removes the incentive to make the switch.”
The people making equipment purchasing decisions, mostly have their kids in the same schools as politicians. Hence get exceptions from “even higher taxes.”
Hi, your assessment misses a critical Component: METALS. Mining MUST increase (Copper, Lithium, other metals) in order to produce “CLEAN EV’s” – – a misnomer that I should not have to explain to thinking people. Thus, in support of your assertions (arguing that Unleaded demand COULD decrease), DIESEL production must increase, in order to continue mining ops. We are truly in a CATCH 22 situation on other fronts.
Yes, mining uses a lot of diesel. (Though some mining operations are switching from diesel to electric where practical.) Still, this is an example of increasing diesel demand from increased mining.
And yes, presently you cannot increase diesel production without increasing gasoline production. More diesel requires more oil being refined, and therefore more surplus gasoline.
Incidentally, some people are worried about a lack of metals which could curtail EV production.
I am not worried about metals and their role in EV production. If there was a shortage of metals, then metals prices would be rising. But metals prices have been falling. So there is no shortage yet. And EV production should continue to grow.
Papa, virtually all “electric” powered mining equipment is supplied by diesel generators. Except, of course, the mines right next to hydroelectric and nuclear. Windmills and solar usually can’t cut it for these giant machines. Check out Bucyrus-Erie.
thanks papa. now to all you people, and especially you papa d, what public company would benefit from the new refinery buildouts……..or changes……….?
Build a new refinery in the US?
The green dreamers would not allow it.
The product mix at an existing oil refinery can be adjusted by a few percentage points in either direction = not much. They need to sell gasoline, diesel fuel and jet fuel at a profit to stay in business.
Chemistry rules, OK?
This “split” in how oil is turned into products is dated. In South Africa they make all petroleum products from coal and natural gas, not oil. Retooling a plant is quite possible and if there is a large shift in demand they will do it. China built two SASOL plants with South African technical assistance. They could build dozens. The input is primarily carbon and hydrogen from any source, with added oxygen:
https://www.gasworld.com/story/worlds-largest-oxygen-production-plant-officially-opened/
The rest is imaginative chemistry. SASOL profitably makes everything from wax to polyethylene to creosote without using oil. They have manufactured 1.5 billion barrels of fuel in 50 years. If they had oil it would be all that much simpler. Texas can do the same.
You don’t need a completely new refinery design, you would need an add- on unit. Catalytic crackers already exist to cut down the excess heavy hydrocarbons, and Fischer-Tropsch can join light hydrocarbons to heavier ones.
Which way they will go depends on the market and the crude oil supply.
Papa Dave can asphalt be replaced by concrete?
At what expense?
Regardless, that is only 3.0% by your statements
Yes it can. Concrete is more expensive than asphalt, but it lasts longer. Lots of pros and cons.
https://www.perrinconstructionredding.com/blog/2018/9/25/concrete-vs-asphalt-roads-pros-and-cons-of-each
If oil demand keeps increasing, we will get increased quantities of all refined products, including asphalt. So I suspect we will keep using all the asphalt we produce.
In addition, both concrete and asphalt are bad for the environment and for global warming.
And finally, other new problems are appearing more frequently with both asphalt and concrete roads. Asphalt gets soft at very high temperatures. And with global warming increasing temperatures and causing more frequent heat domes, we are getting more stories of asphalt roads becoming too soft and unusable.
When concrete slab roads get too hot the concrete expands and can buckle. Also making them unusable.
https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/the-worlds-roads-arent-ready-for-a-hotter-climate/wcm/43c4f256-fea7-488f-a916-1a47ac1bd8f8/amp/
Another comment sent to moderation. Hopefully it will appear eventually. Till then, here is my first paragraph.
Yes it can. Concrete is more expensive than asphalt, but it lasts longer. Lots of pros and cons.
The world currently has a sand shortage. Sounds like a joke, but it’s not.
Illegal immigrants taking jobs away from the already poor. Why would any working stiff such as myself ever vote for a Republicsn Worse yet, a Democrat?
The Constitutional Contract between the Federal Government and its citizentry is lost. Oh wait, there is no such thing as a citizen of the United States. The citizens have been disenfranchised in favor of the affluents desires to be served with cheap labor.
I don’t agree with all of his views but I believe RFK would end the wars and solve the border crisis.
Kennedy announced yesterday his call for more Ukraine Funding.
i don’t think that is true. anyone have any proof of that. i’d like to see.
That was funding for Israel for the “long war”. He probably will slip in Ukraine soon. After all his uncle said during his inaugural speech:
“Let every nation know, whether it wishes us well or ill, that we shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe to assure the survival and the success of liberty.”
He sees this as a part of his legacy..
Spot on logic. We need to pay $40 an hour to car wash attendants and such to make everything fair. Or better yet just give out a 100k UBI. Perfect. If you don’t allow legal immigration and allow those immigrants to work and contribute to the economy we will circle the drain faster than we are now. We have both parties subsidizing those who don’t want to work so they can stay home and reproduce and buy twinkies while those with a family and work ethic slowly wither away economically from the corrupt policies of the govt and fed.
“We have both parties subsidizing those who don’t want to work…”
Couldn’t agree more. we have 71 million socialists collecting social security and relatively free healthcare from the rest of the working population. By 2030 it’ll be 82 million or more. It has to stop, we need reform now.
https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/quickfacts/stat_snapshot/
Social security was paid for up-front by its recipients. Blame your politicians for raiding that fund.
“Social security was paid for up-front by its recipients. Blame your politicians for raiding that fund.”
You’re assuming the amount paid into the system while working equates to, or is somehow more than, the retirement benefits they receive after retirement.
I’d be willing to bet the majority of the population has put nowhere near enough into the system to make up for the amount they eventually receive.
NOT TRUE. FFS don’t you bozos know how SS works?
You are an annoying broken record on SS. Get a life.
Take a look in the mirror.
Define “work”. If it is “useful work” then very few of us would qualify. Then you have “make work” and its twin “government work” and finally we have “bullshit work”. A new category that has appeared since smart phones is “fantastically stupid work that generates a ridiculous amount of money”. It is better to be in the last category.
There are labor shortages everywhere, pick your poison. Perhaps training all the billions of people streaming across the border in whatever professions retired people were may be a good start.
graeber’s book, “bullshit jobs, a theory” was so right.
Learn how to do math please. Let’s use a lower base than the ss tax max ,100k. Calculate 40 years of wages ss tax. 500k. That is without investing it. Most people won’t collect even the principal back. Please STFU about ss now.
Don’t forget those that paid in for decades then expired before they could collect one red cent.