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What Does the Demand for Temporary Help Suggest About a Recession?

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8 comments on What Does the Demand for Temporary Help Suggest About a Recession?

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Temporary Help data from the BLS, chart by Mish

Demand for temporary help is rolling over on a seasonally-adjusted basis as it did in four prior recessions. That’s as far back as this data series goes.

Temporary Help Change From Year Ago Thousands of Persons 

Temporary Help Percent Change From Year Ago 

On an unadjusted basis demand for temporary help is down from a year ago. 

There was no lead time warning for the recession that started in August of 1990 but there was lead time for the 2001 and 2008 recessions. 

Given a slew of other recessionary data, don’t expect any lead time now.

Related Articles 

Not to Worry, Jobs are Strong

This post originated at MishTalk.Com.

For a Wonderland debate over the strength of the economy, please see Alice Debates the Mad Hatter and the Red Queen on Timing the Recession.

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Mike Shedlock

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8 Comments
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Doug78
Doug78
3 years ago
We now know who engineered Saudi Arabia’s rise.
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8dots
8dots
3 years ago
Temp might cont with lower highs and highers lows, forming a diamond. There will be more stability in the labor market. If higher
highs and lower lows cont, the system will be out of control and break.
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8dots
8dots
3 years ago
Temp is great, temp is flex. We send recycled Abrams tanks to our good friends in Ukraine, because we are obligate to help them, to keep inflation high and reduce gov debt in real terms. Inflation can bootstrap temp, Temp have no benefits and obligations. The temp can work any number of hours, or tossed out. Since 2001 the temp gyrate in higher highs and lower lows, forming a megaphone.
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worleyeoe
worleyeoe
3 years ago
Wait, I thought all of those job gains over the last 3 months or so were all temp, second jobs?
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xbizo
xbizo
3 years ago
Some sectors still not back to 2019 levels, and they need to go back down? That inflation is a supply problem- destruction from the great lockdown.
We can have a GDP decline without unemployment problems because of the number of available jobs. Tech layoffs are miniscule but directionally the change from hiring every warm body to stable workforce is not inflationary.
Wage increases are keeping pace with inflation in trades and service work, but not elsewhere.
I’m seeing at least 10% increases in everything and sneaky increases beyond that. Don’t see how we can have 20% inflation and positive GDP.
Too many variables changing in big ways at the same time.
Economy is 70% consumer. Spending is going to be fine in nominal dollars but terrible in real dollars. With stable employment, is that a recession?
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MarkraD
MarkraD
3 years ago
Welp, I’m finally convinced, just put my life savings into SPX puts, bought 500 lbs of spam and packed my life’s belongings into a van.
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randocalrissian
randocalrissian
3 years ago
Reply to  MarkraD
An unassailable plan. /s
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Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear
3 years ago
It looks like some sort of slowdown was developing before COVID hit.
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