Trump is upping the rhetoric on Mexico, Canada, and China on top of previous tariff threats. Who will be hardest hit? 
Threat to Scrap USMCA
The Wall Street Journal writes Trump Fires Salvo on North American Trade Pact
Donald Trump’s new tariff pledges send a clear signal that he wants to rewrite the terms of North America’s free-trade pact and follow through with plans to hit China with tariffs, demonstrating to allies and adversaries alike that he is serious about renewing confrontation over a global trading system that he believes costs the U.S. dearly.
On his Truth Social social-media platform on Monday, Trump said he would levy tariffs of 25% on imports of all goods from Mexico and Canada, accusing both countries of facilitating illegal immigration and fentanyl abuse in the U.S. The Mexican peso fell 1.4% against the dollar in Asian trading Tuesday, while the Canadian dollar lost 1%.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said Mexico would retaliate if Trump imposed tariffs, as it did in 2018 when it responded to levies on its steel exports by imposing matching tariffs on U.S. steel and slapping duties on other goods including pork, cheeses, apples and Bourbon.
“President Trump, threats and tariffs won’t be the way to address the migration phenomenon or drug use in the United States,” Sheinbaum said at her daily news conference Tuesday morning. “One tariff will be followed by another, and so on until we put companies at risk,” she said, referring to U.S. carmakers such as General Motors, Stellantis and Ford, which she said arrived in Mexico 80 years ago.
Impact on Autos
The US imports $130 billion of vehicles from Mexico and another $56 billion from Canada.
A 25 percent tariff on vehicles would, in theory, cost US auto manufactures about $46.5 billion.
But the manufacturers would not east this cost, they would hike prices by $46.5 billion.
Impact on Electrical Equipment
The US imports $86 billion of electrical equipment from Mexico and another $10 billion from Canada.
A 25 percent tariff on electrical equipment would, in theory, cost US auto manufactures about $24.0 billion.
But the manufacturers would not east this cost, they would hike prices by $24 billion.
Retaliation
It is ridiculous to believe Mexico and Canada would not retaliate.
They would do so by hiking tariffs on US goods by 25 percent, or by turning to China, Asia or the EU for supplies instead.
US exports would shrink in retaliation. Also US sales of autos and electronics will drop due to price hikes.
One can go through the above math on every category. Take a look at plastics. Why does Mexico need $21 billion in plastics from the US and why does Canada need $15 billion?
Mexican and Canadian importers will seek a lower cost alternative. Why not the EU or China? There are switching costs of course, but 25 percent is one hell of an incentive.
Even if there is no retaliation, costs would rise in Mexico, Canada, and the US as a result of such nonsense.
The result would be stagflationary, higher prices and lower growth.
US Imports – Goods Only – China, Canada, Mexico 2023
US imports China, Canada, Mexico, World
- China: $427 Billion
- Canada: $419 Billion
- Mexico: $475 Billion
- World: $2,018 Billion
- World Excluding China, Canada, Mexico: $697 Billion
Tax Hikes (If Collected, But They Won’t Be)
- China: $256 Billion @ 60 percent
- Canada: $105 Billion @25 percent
- Mexico: $119 Billion @25 percent
- World Excluding China, Canada, Mexico: $70 Billion@ 10 percent
- Total: $550 Billion
Tax Hike $550 Billion
That’s a tax hike of $550 billion assuming the US collected it all, which of course is preposterous.
Unlike China which relatively imports little from the US, Canada and Mexico have plenty of scope for retaliation as the lead chart shows. Here is the broader export picture.
US Exports – Goods Only – China, Canada, Mexico 2023
Whereas China would strike back at the US with agricultural imports, Canada and Mexico both have ample means to retaliate tit-for-tat.
In what fantasyland world does it make sense for the US to up tariffs by 25 percent when Mexico and Canada would likely do the same?
Which States Trade the Most with Mexico?
The above chart is courtesy of the Voronoi report Which States Trade the Most with Mexico?
Decades of cross-border transactions have integrated the North American economy to such a degree that today each US state has its own fascinating trade connection with Mexico.
This has been the case under both NAFTA and the subsequent United States—Mexico—Canada Agreement (USMCA), which was signed in 2018 but essentially modernized the existing agreement. The market for light and medium vehicles in North America was estimated in 2020 to be worth over $700B.
From auto-parts and related goods to finished vehicles, transportation equipment remains the largest two-way trading category between Mexico and many US border states across the Southwest and Midwest.
This list includes Texas, California, and (interestingly) Michigan, the former auto capital of the world and a border state on the other side of the country. Part of this continued vehicular dominance is in no small part due to a USMCA provision requiring automakers to source at least 75% of their car parts from North American sources.
If Trump scraps USMCA, that 75% North America requirement would be null and void.
Trump Threatens to Cancel His Own “Best Ever” Trade Deal
Yesterday, I noted Trump Threatens 25 Percent Tariffs on Mexico and Canada on Day One
Trump says he will unilaterally scrap his own allegedly “Best in History” trade deal with huge tariff hikes on our top two trading partners. Is this constitutional?
I doubt the move would be constitutional, but who cares about that?
MAGA fans who scream at Biden’s unconstitutional executive orders are mostly cheering Trump’s Make Tariffs Great again (MTGA) policy.
No One Wins Trade Wars
A reader asked “Who do you think is gonna win that one?”
I replied: Nobody will win this because nobody wins trade wars.
The Art of Total Bullshit
Bear in mind USMCA was essentially the same deal as NAFTA.
But in one key retrospect USMCA was worse. Trump agreed to let Mexican courts instead of US courts to settle some trade disputes. How foolish is that?
Trade Is Not Bilateral
A fundamental mistake is that nearly everyone, especially Trump, believes trade is bilateral and there is a winner and loser to every deal.
Here is a better way of looking at things.
Trade Wars Are Easy to Win Key Points
- Biden did not touch USMCA. That means the best trade deal in the history of the world increased the Mexico+Canada trade deficit by $92 billion.
- On the bright side, since Biden did not touch Trump’s tariffs on China except adding a bit to them, we need to give full Trump credit for reducing the trade deficit with China by $96 billion.
- However, we must also credit Trump with a 5-country wallop of negative $257 billion since 2017.
How can one not brag about impressive results like those? And Trump is. So I am willing to give Trump full credit for these impressive net results.
Totals Goods Balance of Trade
NAFTA/USMCA accounts for 34 percent of the deficit increase since 2017. And USMCA accounts for 57 percent of the deficit increase since Trump signed the deal.
This is why we don’t use the words “best ever” lightly.
It’s an amazing performance.
What Happened?
Trade is not bilateral. We improved the deficits with China at the primary expense of increasing the deficit in Mexico, Canada, Taiwan, Vietnam, and South Korea.
Some will argue the shift is good. But how much is Chinese exports rebranded as “Made in Vietnam” or “Made in Mexico”?
He’s Got the Whole World In His Hands
Trump now threatens to put tariffs on the whole world. That’ll teach em!
And if that doesn’t work (or start WWIII with China), then Trump will bully the entire rest of the world into putting 60 percent tariffs on China, Vietnam, and Mexico.
In response, China would cut off the supply of rare earth minerals to the world. After all, if no one trades with you, then don’t supply anyone with materials they need to produce anything, especially weapons and microchips.
Critical Materials Risk
The US Department of Energy has placed some of the rare earth minerals we need for weapons systems, windmills, batteries, missiles, microchips, and aircraft on a critical materials list.
have been warning about this for years
China controls more than 80% of the world’s supply of tungsten and about 90% of global magnesium production
China has an effective monopoly over processing major heavy rare earths – Dysprosium (Dy) and Terbium (Tb), and Light Rare Earths – Neodymium (Nd) and Praseodymium (Pr).
It takes decades to get a mine up in the US and mining is one thing. Processing is the second. China controls about 90% of global rare earth process.
No other county has the processing technology.
Trump’s Proposed Tariffs Are a Tax on Consumers, Primarily the Poor
In response to my November 22, 2024 post Trump’s Proposed Tariffs Are a Tax on Consumers, Primarily the Poor a number of readers commented they did not give a damn about the poor.
Since the poor don’t matter, I fail to see what else can possibly go wrong.
China’s Export Curb Threat
In response to tariff threats, please note China’s Puts Export Curbs on Minerals US Needs for Weapons and Technology
In a warning shot to the Trump administration, China tightens export controls on some dual-use minerals.
Some might be worried about a Smoot-Hawley type reaction in which every country responds in kind to Trump’s tariffs, starting with Mexico, Canada, and the EU, and culminating with China blocking exports of all rare earth elements.
Not me. Trade wars are good and easy to win. And the tax on the poor doesn’t matter. Nor does the $46.5 billion tax on cars, the $24.0 billion tax on electronics, or the combined $550 Billion tax on everything
Recall how well tariffs worked in the 1930’s ? MAGA was also at work at the time; then known as nationalism with protectionism, all in a socialist framework ? Socialism is stronger today, at least for illegals ?
If only we had some indication he was going to act like this…
Just 48 hours after Trump threatened to impose tariffs, president Claudia Sheinbaum agrees to stop illegal immigration through Mexico. The leftist tard from Canada called even sooner than that.
Don’t let anyone tell you that tariffs don’t work.
Sorry, need to change my answer to the Mish question.
The middle class industry will suffer the most…
Lower class don’t readily recognize being elevated or lowered in class.
Upper class are picking out the latest lifestyle choices, quite the chore…
Middle class trying so desperately to not be lower while spending non recoverable hours away from loved ones to gain upper class suffer the most with king orangee tari-ffica policy.
Class dismissed
Department
Of
Government
Efficiency
Make government smaller by making it bigger…..
Bunch of rubes, all of US.
I’m a big fan of Trump, particularly because there was no alternative. If he actually imposes tariffs, he will prove he’s an idiot by not knowing history, economics, and that advisors with only academic experience are at best useless.
Instead of threatening tariffs he needs to be threatening DOD that if they do not stop their Russian propaganda and provocation, he will expose all of their money laundering and push for an immediate 10% cut in their spending and the # of generals.
Mish,
I have great news for you. Trump will follow through with a strong mix of tariffs and many other 180-degree policies than those of Brandon. The United States is about to see a massive shift in all sorts of things. Time will tell who wins the debate.
I’m very pleased Trump won. I am hopeful that DOGE will gain traction very quickly and highlight much of the waste, fraud & abuse that needs to be addressed by legislation & EOs. No earmarks, no CRs & budgets will be a great start.
America cannot stay on the path that we were on. It’s that simple. Big & bold actions are needed. If something doesn’t work, I’m sure Trump will throw it out & try something different.
I also look forward to endless articles talking about all of the impending inflation. Just make sure if things start to turn positive that we document that as well.
Thanks!
Congress isn’t giving up their pork. DOGE is DOA. All he can do is publish lists of govies, and imply the trump mouth breathers should do something about them.
Until Trump declares no earmarks, no CRs & pass 12 budgets, then you may be right. Fortunately, it’s not going to take too long to figure out how serious he is. With $36T in debt & $1.8T annual budget deficits, now seems the right time to bring the beginnings of fiscal sanity back to DC.
Likewise, there’s tons of opportunities for Trump to deliver on his promises.
You have big plans for the country!
Trump does.
DOGE can make progress quickly with a short statement from Trump to his cabinet picks. Advise ALL employees must work in the office 5 days per week. See how many employees will resign quickly. No need for layoffs, severence, etc. for these people. Then start working on cutting the spending. Start with NPR.
Agreed. In addition, he can force departments to not rehire people as they retire. Over the next 4 years, that probably would be close to a 5% workforce reduction all on its own.
The rest of the world will shift their purchases to Asia and Europe and leave the US behind. They will move on and prosper and we will stagnate. Peron did exactly this in the ‘50’s in Argentina hoping to bolster industrial development. In the end, Argentina just fell decades behind, ending in stagnation, inflation and political instability. The population adored Peron. Trump is following perfectly in his footsteps.
Peron ran a socialist economic policy that was admired by many Marxist at the time including Che Guevara. Actually his policies resemble those we see in the EU today and unfortunately the results look erringly similar as well.
Peron, a great admirer of Mussolini, is indeed the perfect role model for Trump. Just like Trump, Peron turned his country’s “deplorables” into a winning election machine, and then ruined Argentina with protectionism and loose fiscal policies. That said, Melania is no Eva Peron.
Yes, trade wars always generate new supply chains.
The middleman industrial complex will get destroyed. Those whose self preservation is at other peoples expense will get a dose of reality.
Won’t there be more middling of goods through other third-party countries for tariff arbitrage purposes? Similar to the middling of Russian oil through India?
Tariffs will result in inflation which is simply a tax. Since the poor and middle class spend most of their income on necessities it is a very regressive tax that the rich don’t even notice. You asked for it, now you’re going to get it as Roosevelt told the Germans.
WTI < west Canadian Select ??
I didn’t
Canada would be better off having free trade agreements with China & the rest of Asia.
And put at least a 25% tariff on all US imports.
Every four years now any agreement with the US is subject to being arbitrarily torn up because some blow hard gets elected by the stupidest people in the country.
Enough with that, better to deal with serous countries.
Everyone who doesn’t vote for my candidate is stupidest person—greg
The collapse of the education system is a boon for magats. We’re transitioning from the bullshit age to the stupid age.
Being a meritocracy would make every country better off.
Ain’t gonna happen with the wealthy in control.
But not the stupid people in each respective country.
And, 50+ years past all outcomes being determined solely by arbitrary Fed closeness, stupid people are the ones who own, and hence, run everything in near every country. At least every Western one.
*In purely objective terms, even most stupid people would eventually benefit. But one of the hallmarks of stupidity, is obsession with relative rank over any “absolute” utility: If one is dumb enough, it seems to hardly matter if ones costs go up, ones income down, healthcare disappears and ones children gets shot and addicted instead of leaning how to read. All that is forgiven, as long as Dear Leader promise to make sure that those Wetbacks will suffer even worse!
Neither is good. Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day, learn him how to fish and you ll feed him for his life. The real point is instead having as max competent peoples as possible you d need a Master degree to know how to fish instead of getting peoples learning faster.
Optics-US is agreement incapable.
Can any world leader trust the USA to keep an agreement? If the US cant keep agreements with so called friendly countries, what do you think other countries think of the US’s reliability? Not a plus on the world stage!
With respect to the US, if you exclude energy, the US pretty much exports more to Canada than it imports in everything else as per Mishes chart.
Guaranteed inflation for the US consumer for what gain?
President Elect Trump doesn’t care and with his cabinet picks only the congress could stop him, but they are on their knees to Trump. This is what 49% of the people that voted chose, now they will live with it. The poor and rural populations will bear the most punishment from these policies.
I live in a rural area. There won’t be hardly any impact. It will hit urban areas the worse. I’m not poor but poor people, if you don’t already know, don’t have a lot of money to buy things and are quite resourceful. They get parts from scrap yards and are not into Jeb guac bowls so no issue with threats from the Mexican Marxist President.
Thank goodness for scrap yards.
If times get harder, resourcefulness may not cover it.
49%?
Last I saw Trump had 51% but there were still a lot of votes not counted. As the remainder were counted his % of total vote dropped to 49.4% not exactly a landslide or mandate.
And they will blame it on Democrats.
Did @Mish answer the question posed in the title?
Or was the title clickbait?
The USMCA didn’t address the exchange rate among the respective currencies, which can lead to trade imbalances alone. These currencies should trade in narrow bands or lower floor.
If China and Hong Kong can peg their currencies to the US dollar, why not the immediate trading partners?
1M CL completed its downturn in Oct. Momentum might cont to take it down, thereafter CL should rise. Tariffs might reduce high CL prices.Tariffs will reduce suv and pickup trucks prices. BLS cheated on inflation. Trump will reduce the trade deficit with Mexico, Canada, China, Europe and other countries. When Boeing fills its open orders, when home builders will produce houses that people want, when our national interest factories will be ready ==> the economy will boom.
“When Boeing fills its open orders, when home builders will produce houses that people want, when our national interest factories will be ready ==> the economy will boom.”
Oh, when Santa Claus comes to town! Obama will pay my mortgage. Trump give me a job! And Musk, he will give me a Marsedes Benz! With the AI option and Hope and Change. Works every time. Just gotta believe, man!
Can I get an
AMEN?!!
Most will never realize how close they came to total government control of everything. Why other liberals haven’t woken up is beyond me.
For decades, Andreessen has supported Democrats, including Bill Clinton, Al Gore, John Kerry, Barack Obama, and Hillary Clinton. However, a troubling spring meeting with Biden administration officials caused major concerns. During the meeting, officials explained their plan to control AI through government regulatory capture—a strategy reminiscent of Communist policies in China.
But instead, we have a small number of rich people that control the government. Winning!
76M+ people just threw out the crazy liberal agenda. I’d call that winning.
… and anointed the new First Lady, Leon Musk.
Investopedia: “The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, enacted in June 1930, added about 20% to the United States’ already high import duties on foreign agricultural products and manufactured goods. The Fordney-McCumber Act of 1922 previously raised the average import tax on foreign goods to about 40%.”
Interesting that no one talks about Fordney-McCumber. Never heard of it till today. The U.S. Roaring 20’s followed it’s passage. “Congress passed the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act in 1934,” to reduce tariffs. Yet the U.S. remained mired in a depression for the remainder of the decade.
The drug trade into the US has to stop. Trump may be just talking, but I support his intention.
It’s not going to stop. Never has. Maybe worm brain will get them to legalize, and defund the cartels.
The vast majority of drug usage in the US is alcohol, nicotine, opioids and marijuana. The vast majority of which is produced in the US and perfectly legal. What you are really asking for is the abolition of lower cost imported drugs that Americans are happy to pay for. Maybe we should finally declare a “war on drugs” and maybe set up a federal law enforcement agency to stop these countries from sending drugs here. Call it the “bad drugs enforcement agency” or something. This will surely be successful in no time!
You have to stop the demand for drugs, not the supply.
Last I learned demand controls supply
Did I miss a class?
If tariffs were a disaster why do so many countries do it to us without much consequence? One can buy a US car in the UK but it will cost damn near double the price. It wasn’t always that way. Even with Mexico, we had a trade surplus before Clinton.
I know there is no such thing as fair trade, somebody always gets screwed in a trade, albeit by varying degrees, but what is going on now in the US where we lose on purpose says a lot about what elected officials truly think about its citizens and have thought about them for decades.
” … somebody always gets screwed in a trade, albeit by varying degrees ….” Trade can be a positive-sum game, i.e.,it produces more for both participants, if each side provides something the other needs or wants, but cannot produce for itself at the same cost. That was the basis for classical economics: Adam Smith, etc., which accompanied the unprecedented flowering of life improvement all over the planet. Yes, it can be a zero-sum (winner-loser) or negative-sum (everybody loses) game. But it doesn’t always have to.
I should not have used the word screwed. I only used it for brevity to describe the complexity of trading. Say trading a rare Beanie Baby in the 80’s for 1 share of Apple stock. Over time, the fairness of trades, more often than not someone does in fact get screwed.
Tariffs are a disaster because the government picks the winners.
It is certainly an interesting view of the world. I wonder if it is even feasible to resurrect 19th century mercantilism and be the worlds manufacturer, all the while turning every other former trading partner into a simple hewer of wood and drawer of water. Of course it assumes that everyone will willingly play along. Maybe it can work but only if Jack can fit back in the box.
Most of the kids that will graduate in the next 20 years will be unable to read or do basic math. They aren’t going to be any help rebuilding our industrial base.
Mercantilism seemed to work when one side had radically better technology, and the will to exploit the other to any degree. So, it was the world of slavery, for example. Trade anything and always screw the other guy to the fullest possible extent.
Not to worry as King Donald will fix everything.
Lol, love it! This election keeps giving over and over again. I’m not going to tire seeing left-tard meltdowns any time soon.
Pearl clutching is all they have left. TDS has taken souls
Come 2026 Republicans will be clutching their “pearls” if they haven’t sold them to pay for food. 2026 3rd quarter the DJIA will be half what it is today. We will be in a deep recession or depression. Look at how Warren Buffet is preparing for an indicator, he’s moved something like $3B from the stock market to cash.
What’s this “DJIA” idol?
You mean laughing at your stupidity. Your denial skills almost keep that fact away.
King Donald. Nice nickname, TF!
I am anxious to see Trump’s tariff plans unfold. As he repeatedly said, he WANTS tariff revenue to offset his tax cuts on tips, overtime, SS, corporations etc. Not to mention paying down the national debt. Claiming that he is doing this to stop illegals and drugs is partly an excuse, because we get very little of either from Canada (though lots from Mexico).
One thing we do get a lot from Canada is oil: 4-5 mbpd. That’s because Canadian oil is “heavy” and that is what all US refineries are designed to use. Our refineries are not designed for “light” shale oil, which is why we export almost all shale oil and import “heavy” oil from Canada, Venezuela, and Mexico. Could we build new refineries that would process light shale oil? Yes. But it would take 5-10 years to build them, and by the time they are ready, we will be running out of light shale oil anyway. And since refineries have a 20-30 year payback period, it makes no economic sense to build those refineries. So we will continue to import over 8 mbpd from Canada, Mexico, and Venezuela, while we export 10 mbpd of light shale oil.
In the US midwestern PADD2 zone there are 25 refineries. They operate solely on Canadian heavy crude. The pipelines from nearby Canada are their ONLY source of feedstock. (2.8 mbpd)
PADD2 includes Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, N Dakota, S Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Wisconsin.
Add in other refineries throughout the US and Canadian crude is 25% of all US refining input. (4-5 mbpd)
I cannot imagine Trump raising everyone’s energy prices by 25% in those midwestern states. Though he would sure like the revenue. But he would be screwing over all the MAGA voters in those states.
You earned a downvote from someone and I up-voted you to cancel it out. Papa, it seems that other readers here have a problem with facts – – and you presented unemotional facts on oil.
Thanks David. Though I don’t mind the downvotes. I am not here to be popular. Just to gather info and provide info.
I upvoted you because someone downvoted you unjustly.
“You earned a downvote from someone and I up-voted you to cancel it out. Papa, it seems that other readers here have a problem with facts – – and you presented unemotional facts on oil.”
Perhaps Papa could present some facts on natural gas also. The US at most has 10 years of natural gas left left. Just take US yearly natural gas production and divide that by reserves. Once shale oil goes into decline, natural gas production will also go into decline. Europe gets the bulk of the American exports and as if their not hurting enough, wait til their supplier is out.
Some companies like Occidental warning the US faces an energy crisis in 5ish yrs.
Degrowth and Depression coming with different timelines and conclusions
for all countries. Germany now has 2 years of negative growth and next year no doubt continuing the cycle. Whats the definition of a depression? Germany definitely going for 3 years of negative growth.
US Natural Gas
Proven Reserves: 691 Tcf
In spite of record annual production, reserve numbers have been increasing each year as we drill more wells and prove more reserves. So it’s a moving target.
https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/natural-gas/how-much-gas-is-left.php#:~:text=According%20to%20U.S.%20Crude%20Oil,trillion%20cubic%20feet%20(Tcf).
Annual Production: 38 Tcf (#1 in the world)
Annual Consumption: 32.5 Tcf
Annual Exports: 8.5 Tcf (LNG exports are increasing rapidly, pipeline exports to Canada and Mexico are stable)
Annual Imports: 3 Tcf (from Canada)
We have a lot of natural gas left and production numbers will increase for the rest of this decade. Reserve levels will probably continue to grow if we continue to drill wells in shale, which is becoming more gassy and less oily. Whereas oil production will peak in the next few years and then begin a slow decline. We have far less oil than gas.
Hope that helps.
“We have a lot of natural gas left and production numbers will increase for the rest of this decade. Reserve levels will probably continue to grow if we continue to drill wells in shale, which is becoming more gassy and less oily. Whereas oil production will peak in the next few years and then begin a slow decline. We have far less oil than gas.”
I’ll take the other. The US does not have a lot of natural gas left and any increase in production numbers if they do materialize will rapidly deplete gas reserves even more quickly. Reserve levels will not increase despite any increase in shale drilling. Shale is at a plateau and will decrease rapidly once the decline begins.
The world production-consumption of gas. Expected prices. Shale gas USA.
2) The U.S. is a monster with feet of clay. Production is enormous, almost 26% of the world total, but consumption is also gigantic, more than 22%. At the moment it is enough to export large quantities in net, but its low reserves put a very unpleasant limit. In 10-15 years it will go from exporter to importer and Europe will once again depend on Russian gas or from the Middle East, which is where the large reserves are.
No worries. You asked. I replied.
If you want to see a graph of how natural gas reserves have been increasing over time, check out the link below. In 2012, reserves were 320 Tcf. Today close to 700 Tcf. And still going up.
https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/crudeoilreserves/
Just curious how is that trade flow analysis of currencies going for you?
Must be knocking them dead, eh.
I don’t trade currencies. I trade stocks.
You said Trump was threatening Canada with tariffs because he thinks the C$ is artificially weak, which gives them a trade advantage. Then you said that Canada should raise its currency value.
I asked you how Canada will do that because their currency freely floats based on supply and demand.
You could not answer that question.
I also pointed out that since threatening Canada with economic harm through tariffs, the C$ has dropped even further in value.
I personally don’t care what the C$ is worth. And I certainly wouldn’t waste my time analyzing it if I don’t trade it. You seem to be the interested party here.
Now, how about telling me what Canada should do to raise the value of its currency. Or will you avoid answering again.
“Proven Reserves: 691 Tcf”
This is from your post 2 weeks ago
Now Germany Has a Green Electricity Outage With Huge Consequences – MishTalk
“8. The countries with the largest NG reserves are:
Russia: 1,688,228,000 mmcf
Iran: 1,201,382,000
Qatar: 871,585,000
US: 368,704,000”
Amazing how in the span of 2 weeks from your own numbers, NG reserves have doubled.
I can we can dicker which is the correct number you posted. Im going with your first number 368,704,000 mmcf.
The US is facing a natural gas crisis along with an oil crisis in the not too distant future.
I do give you credit for your analysis of states dependent on Canadian oil. The same goes for natural gas as a number of states are dependent on Canadian natural gas.
They are not “my” numbers. They are numbers I found on a website when looking to compare data from different countries. There is a lot of old data online. And there are several sites that have similar comparative numbers. However, when I looked up the most recent US data, this time from the IEA, it was interesting to see their numbers. You are entitled to believe whichever numbers you wish.
link to eia.gov.
Reserves aren’t static. Increase the prices and reserves expand. You may pay more for fuel, but that’s better than driving a Tesla.
Facts are like sunlight to vampires for them, so they stay safe under a blanket of stupidity and willful ignorance, choking back angry tears.
Those are the kind of nuances that MAGA voters avoid.
If it ain’t in the newsmax talking points for the day, it don’t exist.
Yesterday Pierre Poilievre who will probably be the next Canadian PM said that in December 4.5 million people will have their temporary visas run out and asked Trudeau what he plans to do with them because they can’t stay. Before I suppose they would have pointed them south but Trump’s tariffs will no longer allow that. He said that Canada has to be realistic about the tariffs and their effect on the Canadian economy so he is asking what Trudeau is he planning to do with those 4.5 million who have to leave before December 2025. Trump didn’t decide the tariff on Canada on a whim. He wants them to make a choice.
And what will he do when he is in charge?
I agree. The MAGA voters will be colder, poorer, and have little access to fresh or canned produce.
They’ll blame the transexuals.
They’ll blame the government.
I doubt Trump would do that to his supporters. Which is why I think he will exempt energy from any tariffs he implements. They may pay for more for other things though.
This is why I have been buying SPY puts for 2027 😉
Trump is, and always has been a financial illiterate! SAD!
When you put an idiot in charge, you get idiotic policies. To be fair to Trump, he gave fair warning to US voters that he is an idiotes (=Greek for a person lacking knowledge).
Lol, Merry Xmas to you too!
I actually think that he is stubborn stupid just so that he can display his BRAVADO! “BRIVATA” en Espanole.
In my USA ‘hood as a kid, the biggest badass in our neighborhood was simply a scared pussy after my best friend punched him OUT COLD one night. Chris, my Pal, kicked Buddy’s ass and Buddy died in his 20’s, a fat fuck.
Idiots demand idiot representation.
The 49% who pay no income tax can start paying their fair share.
Mic drop
That would be a lot of MAGA voters in the $30,000-75,000 bracket.
That’s cuz the gubmint checks they live on are so stingy.
Pandemic, the roaring 20’s, populism, tariffs, blame the immigrants, history sure does repeat itself. Trump is the resurrected Herbert Hoover.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herbert_Hoover
I don’t know which industries will be losers and winners, I just know strategic PUTS are the way forward.
Lol Wikipedia.
Wikipedia is especially useless for economics.
LOL… ya got nothin. Eat it.
The stock market will crash at about Mach 13. Make sure you are quick on the click to cash in on those options.
The Smoot-Hawley Tariff helped put Germany into a depression and raise the popularity of its Nazi party. In 1932, the Nazis won the largest number of votes in two national elections and were able to form a coalition government in January 1933. The rest is history.
Won’t work if it’s the new nazis that crash the economy.
Hoover was a spender. The US was hit by floods from the Mississippi to MA and
VT. He He built dams in the south, in the north and the west. He saved the people
in the US as he did in Belgium. Tariffs reduce inflation
Trump is a spender. The US is hit by floods of fentanyl from Mississippi to MA and VT. He built “walls” in the south that did nothing. He has yet to save anyone. We’ll see what tariffs do soon enough.
He presided over the largest deficit in US history, by far. The tariffs won’t dent anything but consumers.
Interesting to note that 550 billion is a tiny fraction of total federal revenue, one third of which is discretionary. Let’s see what DOGE accomplishes with that. Add deregulation and that could put us way ahead of the curve.
Chris Hedges confirms: Musk-led oligarchs won with Trump a critical battle in the capitalist civil war
https://www.failedevolution.net/2024/11/chris-hedges-confirms-musk-led.html
Did Chris plagiarize that?
The only “good thing” coming out of tariffs would be that the tax goes directly to the deficit. Other than that, it is all a bunch of BS. Taxing the poor is the worst part of it.
Don’t forget, that he is raising tariffs in order to lower income taxes- – watch the deficit explode- – buy long term puts.
If you aren’t wealthy, your taxes aren’t going down.
It’s going to trump and his cronies… either directly or via tax cut.
That’s why the tariffs in 2018 brought about so much inflation and economic devastation. 2019 ended up with the Mish predicted high inflation and a terrible economy or was 2019 really a pretty good year for the economy? I’m thinking back and it seems to me that 2019 was much better than the inflation and economy we have had since.
Reckless money supply increases causes inflation. The Fed and the ridiculous Covid stimulus is what caused the inflation. Not the tariffs
Are you putting your money where your mouth is? I’m buying puts; are you buying calls?
“Professional and EXPERIENCED Options Traders NEVER BUY OPTIONS, they SELL THEM! They sell puts at relative lows, maximizing PREMIUMS with the intent to book profits when those PUT options expire WORTHLESS. I sold SPX PUTS months ago and they are now worth a penny.
Phil, your bragging about BUYING PUTS is simply putting you out here as an OPTION BEGINNER.
So Trump threatens Mexico and Canada with a 25% tariff on all imports until and unless they stop the influx of illegals flooding the US.
The result: within 24 hours (12 hours for Mexico) the ‘leaders’ of both countries are publicly promising to work with the incoming administration to do just that.
Are they serious? Will it work? IDK. There are reports that the current caravan of 1500+ illegals in Mexico are being turned around. We’ll see.
But that is more than occurred in the past 4 years under Obama’s 3rd term.
While it’s true that the US imports massive amounts of produce from Mexico, there are plenty of countries in LatAm (Paraguay would be one) who produce far more than they consume, and would be happy to fill the gap.
And then there is the issue of the 50 billion or so that flows from illegals working in the US being sent back to Mexico. It’s not a small portion of their overall GDP. End that outflow, or tax it in some fashion, and you will see a whole lot of self deportation.
The point is, while I don’t disagree that the actual implementation of tariffs could be inflationary, we need to be viewing them in the context of a much broader picture than just the economics.
But, but, but, no!
Oh forgive me, my TDS is flaring up.
A rich person’s analysis.
One who doesn’t do the grocery shopping.
They’re lying to him like he lies to everyone else. He’ll believe them, then conveniently forget the whole affair.
Produce. He wants to send all the labor back to Mexico, then put tariffs on the stuff they produce in Mexico.
You can tell by looking at the guy he’s never eaten a vegetable.
Trump proves he is serious on tariffs – but it’s not about tradehttps://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0k808xdp18o
The U.S. Navy Can’t Build ShipsDecades of deindustrialization and downsizing have left America without shipyards to build and maintain a fleet.https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/05/17/us-navy-ships-shipbuilding-fleet-china-naval-race-pacific/
Wow. We’re in grave danger of peace breaking out.
If only.