Eight states opened up or partially opened up restaurant operations on May 1 or earlier according to the New York Times.
States Reopened for Restaurants
- Alaska: April 24
- Florida:Traffic May 4 -25%
- Georgia April 24
- Indiana: May 11 – 50%
- Iowa: May 15
- Kansas: May 4
- Missouri :May 4
- Montana: May 4
- Nebraska: May 4 -50%
- Nevada: May 9
- North Dakota: May 1
- Oklahoma: May 1
- South Carolina: May 11 – 50%
- South Dakota: Never Closed
- Tennessee: May 1
- Texas May 1 – 25-50% by location
- Utah: May 1
- West Virginia: May 4
- Wisconsin: May 13: By Supreme Court Ruling
States May 1 or earlier: Alaska, Georgia, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah
Open Table
OpenTable tracks sit-down diners at 20,000 restaurants and it also providers downloadable data from which one can produce charts.
The data indexes two things: first, overall impact of Covid 19 on the industry by showing year-over-year seated diners at a sample of all restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins; second, how the industry rebounds as markets reopen by showing restaurants re-opening rate multiplied by their fill rate as compared year-over-year.
For year-over-year comparisons by day, we compare to the same day of the week from the same week in the previous year. For example, we’d compare Tuesday of week 11 in 2020 to Tuesday of week 11 in 2019. Only states or metros with 50+ restaurants on the OpenTable network for 2019 or 2020 are included in the sample.
To better reflect the state of the overall industry, this dataset is based on a sample of approximately 20,000 restaurants that provide OpenTable with information on all of their inventory. This sample of restaurants typically accounts for a majority of our seated online reservations.
Of the 8 states open May 1 or earlier, OpenTable tracks Georgia, Oklahoma, Texas, and Utah. Tennessee.
Global Restaurant Traffic
May 14 Global Synopsis to Nearest Percent
- Global: -96%
- Australia: -99%
- Canada: -100%
- Germany: -92%
- Ireland: -99%
- Mexico: -99%
- United Kingdom: -99%
- US: -95%
May 14 US Synopsis to Nearest Percent
- US: -95%
- Georgia: -88%
- Oklahoma: -79%
- Tennessee: -85%
- Texas: -83%
- Utah: -88%
Trends?
Several people on Twitter projected the states’ percentage trendlines to get back to 100% but such projections are not close to reasonable.
Rules are subject to change every day and so are consumer concerns.
That aside, it is sure to be a long slog nationally.
Some states will not open until the end of the month or even June. And the percentages of traffic allowed varies by state and even county.
Perhaps traffic gets back to 75%-80% by the end of the year.
Consumer balance sheets have been so damaged and social changes disrupted so much that full recovery this year is highly unlikely.
No V-Shaped Recovery
As noted on Friday, Retail Sales Plunge Way More Than Expected
Even the fed understands there will not be a V-Shaped recovery.
Instead they are promoting a helicopter drop of money. For details, please see Panic Sets In: Fed Promotes More Free Money
Mish
one restaurant we frequent during c-19 has RAISED PRICES 20.3%
couldn’t believe it – shortened our order to reflect cash I had
informed cashier to tell owners we would be REDUCING OUR trips by 20-30% and then buying less when we do come by
Unemployment up to almost 25%. Social distancing all over and restaurant capacity reduced. The added expenses for restaurants of constantly cleaning and disinfecting everything. Three things that will doom a good portion of our restaurants. They will never come back for years to what they once were.
Restaurants are doomed. I used to eat out about 9 times a week and I’m not going to restaurants until I have received a vaccine. Almost no restaurant can make it if their business drops 25% but the sustained drops will be larger than that.
Good news from Cheyenne, WY:
Traffic was decent:
“As The Den’s parking lot fills with pickups and SUVs, the mostly male crowd inside grows. Chavez says the crowd is a mix of regulars and unfamiliar faces. Oil and gas companies have large operations in the area, and many of the men look as if they’ve come in from the oilfields for the night.
None of them are wearing masks, and they’re clearly looking for a much smaller social distance than Americans have become accustomed to as dancers wrap their legs around them from the stage. Thomas, the union president, said she’s worried that customers won’t feel safe returning to clubs, although The Den was about as busy as usual for a Friday night, Chavez says.”
I suspect that some places will be slow to pick up where they left off, but others will be fast. Depends on how bad things have been and how terrified people are. This strip club obviously has a clientele that isn’t much impressed by covid19. Other locales will be very different. Beaches seem fine to many as well – being packed as soon as they re-open. Since they are maybe the safest place to go, probably a good thing too.
Beijing announces wearing masks outdoors not necessary
I am no hurry to return to restaurants. It is rare when I ever do go to one when I do not leave feeling ripped off.
Interesting discussion of coronavirus with Investor Jim Bianco.
Stephan is always fun to listened to.
I’m never going back to a restaurant. Why pay $70 (with tip) for a burger and a couple of beers for the two of you when you can buy a good steak and a decent bottle of wine for half that. We bought clippers for dog grooming and another for haircuts. Not using those services again. They want to illegally lock us in and close tax generating businesses, OK. EFF em. I’m reducing my income as much as possible so we can jump on any govt assistance that will still be available. My turn to milk the system.
What are you wearing, Jakefromstatefarm?
you re gonna be the richest man….of the graveyard…
When will I go back to a restaurant, you asked? When they invent a facemask with a mouth hole, and invisible earplugs, so I don’t hear the roaring noise from all the diners trying to outscream one another – for a genuine dining experience.
I use the pandemic as an excuse for many things I wanted to do anyways, including avoiding restaurants.
Don’t forget the pots and pans being banged from the open kitchen that is all the rage these day, echoed around the room by hard floors, decorative steel ceiling panels, large un-curtained windows, and the lack of carpeting. Why don’t they just send the waiters out in the dining area with a pot and a huge spoon to bang together in your ear. BTW, my wife and I areholders of one of the largest collections of restaurant gift cards in the United States dating back to 2010. Another couple of Christmases and we can wall paper the kitchen with them things.
We have a local Durangos with exactly that scenario, plus piped-in music. I ate there once and never went back. From the time it takes you to get in, get seated, wait for a waitress, scream your order and get served, I can invite a couple of good friends over, cook some steaks on the grill, and share some beer and wine.
Survivor Bias
Many restaurants (25%?) will close … forever. However, their customers will “survive” and will migrate to restaurants still open … creating a bump for them … and thus Survivor’s Bias … those still standing will benefit … maybe not back to normal, but better considering competitors wiped out.
Look for chains such as McDonalds to benefit … and just as surely for Bulltards to trumpet … all the while ignoring Total restaurant sales.
There is no way around it, a lot of service businesses are going to have a tough go of it, no matter what the policy. However, over time the hysteria will die down and things will pick up. Still the worst way to go about it is a government goon, total lock down.
I think many experts think herd immunity is the primary way out of this. There has never been a vaccine for a Coronavirus so that hope is small. Also, what are the side effects of such a vaccine? I don’t want to take it,or at least not right away. We can hope the summer kills it off, but, not likely.
The real motivation for controlling people’s behavior is to keep healthcare from being overwhelmed. But the flattened curve (with an economic shut down) is running at a rate of about 20,000 new cases per day. At that rate, herd immunity is developed in 20+ years. If instead, only those at high risk self quarantin and the healthy get back to normalcy, herd immunity can be achieved much quicker while keeping healthcare from being overwhelmed.
I wonder how many people would consider themselves high risk? Whom would you consider high risk? I would consider anyone over the age of 65, and anyone with certain health issues (anything lungs, kidney, or heart).
I have a hard time telling 50 million or more of my fellow Americans hey screw you, stay locked up at home because I want to be able to go to a restaurant, shopping, movie theater, church…oh and btw my fellow Americans we have no real idea of when we will get to herd immunity, and if herd immunity with antibodies is even a thing, and for how long it is a thing if it is a thing.
Have you seen what is happening in Italy? It is almost gone, if they stay vigilant they can virtually eliminate it. Why are Americans such pansies. A bunch of whining crying bitching pansies because they cant go do what they want to do when they want to do it, some of them even threaten physical violence, during a pandemic, Brilliant!
I hate to say it but herd immunity does look like it will be the likeliest path for this virus. If so that will be a devastating proposition as there is no way we can just let it run rampant. That approach would completely overwhelm the healthcare system across the entire country. The only other alternative is to manage the “hotspots” and flatten the curve. Perhaps for multiple times in some locations. We need a miracle vaccine ASAP.
There are 33 strains of the coronavirus. There is literally no way some people dont have immunity to many of them. There has still been no rational explanation as to why the strains on the east coast are killing healthy people but most of the rest of the country has been immune to the mass death seen in some hotspots on the east coast.
I sure as hell hope I am wrong.
An epidemiologist with a different take. (Banned on Youtube, which is always a sign of something worth paying attention to!)
Where the video is available:
He’s a herd immunity fan.
As am I. I think the shutdown has been the single worst decision made by government(s) in my lifetime, but hopefully the damage isn’t too deep and this will soon be over and by year’s end things will be humming again – ‘a consummation devoutly to be wished.’ If not, and there is a second wave or a second something else as part of an emerging global civil war, then most likely we are in for a very rough road for a long time, 1930’s style catastrophe.
Mish . You need a post on the senate flipping to the Democrats this year. It could easily happen. Additionally Texas is now in the tossup category for the presidential election. The Republicans are in real trouble unless they interfere in the elections. It looks like a private equity company now owns the companies that make election equipment. That alone should strike fear into voters.
The American people will be in real trouble if the Democrats win. There will be helicopter money by the boat load and everyone will cheer it on until the consequences start manifesting themselves. The result will make the 1970s look like a time of economic prosperity.
I agree with you. Immigration and jobs will be the issue come fall and Democrats are big losers there. Trump is the only guy in Washington on the side of citizens when it comes to jobs. At least he portrays himself that way. The parties don’t even try to act anymore. They know they have sold out the American citizen.
The American people ARE in real trouble. No “will be” about it.
As well, there’s been nothing but helicopter money since 1971. And the consequences have already long ago manifested themselves. Boeing planes didn’t just decide to start falling out of the sky for no reason, after all. Nor did “us” degenerate into a dump beaten 100-1 by a bunch of commies at dealing with a disease outbreak, just come about all by its random self.
Compared to any period since the 1970s, the 1970s was a time of economic prosperity. That’s what decline means.
And the entire third world, at least those who can afford it, will cross the border unchallenged.
This is the problem for the Democrats. Biden needs a speech on jobs and immigration that addresses the American citizen The biggest disservice done by Obama to the Democratic party is that he basically let anyone who wanted to come to America come here and overstay their visa. I do think there will be multiple paths to 270 for Biden and Trump. This may be the most interesting election electorally in long time even including the 2000 election.
” It looks like a private equity company now owns the companies that make election equipment”
Duh! The Fed handed everything to private equity companies. Leeches gotta leech in splendor off of the work and talent of others, after all. Wouldn’t be America in the Fed Age otherwise.
Don’t underestimate the Russians!
Things will improve this summer.
Why?
Please specify.
People will be out spending more money than they did in March and April. Please note I didn’t say the level of improvement but I think we are fairly certain there will be more economic activity. I live in California and already see signs of it. Restaurants are open in my area and people are going out again.
September 7, 2021
You can take that to the bank.
…to answer your question Mish ;NOT ANY TIME SOON, while ClintonNN and other democrat news outlets keep on brainwashing people that going to restaurants is VERY dangerous….
Me thinks that since the consumer is already in preparation mode for a recession(saving money) traffic will stay at depressed levels for the foreseeable future.
At this point I think the virus is number 1 but the fear of job losses and economic unknowns will slow peoples money spending habits all the way around.
Restaurants are the #1 place people can save money. Eating out will go from a normal night to a special occasion.
People stopped going to restaurants before the lockdown. They expect a recession and are getting their house in order. Recessions like this are a self fulfilling prophecy.
I don’t see 80%, maybe 50% in a years time. Half the population are ready to “mingle” , the other half not, and not for a long time.
Then there is tourism, which must make up a large part of dining out because tourists are more or less obliged to. That will not take off any time soon, airlines are talking of starting a small framework of international flights next month, but that is tentative and not your usual tourism. I expect some will be itching to get away over the summer, many not, depends on how contained the virus is plus what restrictions are in place such as quarantines which now exist. I reckon most people book or at least plan well in advance, and if they are uncertain now most aren’t going to head off at a moments notice over summer because they just lifted restrictions – figure if someone catches the virus they are as likely going to have to be in the hands of local healthcare rather than return home.
Apart for the owners and employees, I don’t see a need for dining out to rush towards previous levels, would be a shame to see some places close though and a lot of local makeup or mood comes from them.
España va a sangrar, mas que ningun pais ….
Yo creo que si.
It is so reliant on tourism. To top it off they have incoming quarantine measures of two weeks, and those will likely stay in place at least for another month. Italy is opening its border soon without quarantine, various countries are at the stage of doing so soon. France at least has decided to quarantine anyone from Spain “to keep the balance”, and Portugal is not ready to open the border with Spain yet, but otherwise I think they will start more flights between european countries. Africa is still pretty much locked down for flights, some middle eastern and asian countries also. Here is flights in europe vs flights in US today, both taken at 5pm local time.
Flightaware is very misleading when it comes to displaying flights. Each icon is scaled up to the size of a city. Look at departures and landings for airports. KASE (Aspen, CO) is the third busiest airport in Colorado. They went from having 30+ commercial flights a day to 5 major hub airports, along with a constant stream of private aircraft, to 3-4 flights per day. And those flights aren’t direct. SkyWest has begun “milk run” flights between KDEN, KEGE, KSLC and KGJT (and on RJ sized equipment no less!). Sardy field’s apron is normally filled with Gulfstreams and other interesting aircraft but has been largely empty since March. NO ONE is flying and I’ll bet a major chunk of business travel won’t be coming back. People seem to be enjoying working from home despite what many were saying even a year or so ago. We’re figuring out how to make videoconferencing work. We old timers getting used to seeing regular people (without makeup and lighting techs) on screens, something the kids have figured out long ago.
That said, I think the travel and leisure industry will pick up soon. However, the prices will be much higher. In the short run it will be a golden age for travelers, with the infrastructure in place for mass scale but no customers. If you can afford it and you don’t have ongoing respiratory issues after recovery that is…
Maybe, I don’t know if there is aircraft scaling but I used the same scale of map on the flightradar images above. Take offs and landings list would be better though. There is throughfare at major hubs in the north of europe , and some travel between, but little else for now. I don’t know for US, you seem to have planes in the air though by comparison…by comparison :/ Europe is roughly the size of US and there are few flights between countries, I guess interstate flights are still mostly allowed in US ?
I will NOT be going to any Cracker Barrel (or similar) eatery. They are frequently very crowded with overflow groups waiting outside for a table especially 10/11 am Sunday (the church crowd)
The restaurant industry is easily moldable to consumers.
Once a trend begins, that makes consumers feel safe to go out, they will. Whether it’s plexiglass partitioning, robotic food delivery systems or operational changes like more food trucks, portable kitchen operations…something that keeps consumers feeling safe will catch on and explode….one day
Interesting, I think people have a higher level of concern at restaurants. It takes momentum to change people’s habits, and obviously some percentage of people are not going to go back until they have received an FDA-approved vaccine. There certainly is no shortage of people in the retail stores that are open, from my own anecdotal observations.
It is really uncertain because attitudes can change in a flash. And also by state. But I do think this will take a while to get to the 80% marke, then the rest will be slower. people are broke
According to a recent article, spending by the bottom 20% was running ahead of last year in April, and I would guess it is far ahead in May. With a stimulus check, and +$600/week unemployment, they are no doubt flush with cash, so that’s not surprising. It’s the middle class and up that have seen big income declines, and they are probably responsible for most of the fine dining. I would guess that some restaurants will recover faster than others, and the ones catering to the middle to high sector will recover the slowest.
It sounds crazy to think it, but an FDA stamp of approval isn’t going to cut it for a lot of folks. I’d rather take whatever they’re taking elsewhere.