What happened in 2025? What’s in store this year?
Cumulative Change by Sector in Thousands
- Nonfarm: +181
- Manufacturing: -108
- Construction: -1
- Leisure and Hospitality: +119
- Education and Health Care: +697
- Professional and Business Services: -126
- Information: -49
- Financial: +5
- Retail: -58
- Wholesale: -49
- Government: -228
There were only two significant positive sectors in 2025: Education and Health Care, and Leisure and Hospitality.
Cumulative Change in Jobs for 2025 Spotlight
2025 Job Spotlight Details
- Nonfarm: +181
- Education and Health Care: +697
- Nonfarm Excluding Education and Health Care: -517
Typically, when the only strong sector is recession proof, the economy is already in recession.
Looking ahead, I see no driver for jobs. Yet, the unemployment rate may not surge because of baby boomer retirements.
Baby Boomer Retirements
- Daily Figures: Recent data from the Alliance for Lifetime Income suggests 11,200 to 11,400 boomers hit retirement age every day.
- “Peak 65” Era: The years 2024 through 2027 are considered the peak of this trend, as the last and largest group of baby boomers reaches the traditional retirement age.
- Despite reaching 65, many in this generation continue to work, either out of financial necessity or by choice.
- Boomers are now dying at a rate of roughly 1,000 a day.
Working Age Population
- Projections: In CBO’s projections, the rate of population growth generally slows over the next 30 years, from an average of 0.4 percent a year between 2025 and 2035 to an average of 0.1 percent a year between 2036 and 2055.
- Immigration: Net immigration becomes an increasingly important source of population growth. Without immigration, the population would shrink beginning in 2033, in part because fertility rates are projected to remain too low for a generation to replace itself.
CBO’s projections of fertility, mortality, and net immigration rates are highly uncertain. Small differences between those projections and actual outcomes could compound over time and significantly alter the demographic picture by the end of the 30-year projection period.
Related Posts
February 11, 2026: BLS Revises Nonfarm Payrolls for 2025 Lower by 1 Million Jobs
For the second year, the BLS annual benchmark revision was hugely negative.
February 11, 2026: Household Survey Jobs Data Is Garbage Due to Missing Population Adjustments
The BLS did not release the expected household annual population adjustments.
February 11, 2026: Another Look at the Incredible January 2026 Jobs Report
Do you believe the nonfarm payroll report for January 2026?
Must read!
AI & skilled labor (Trades & technicians for the various electronic systems).
JOBS will be in making more bombs and assorted war manufacturing….i could dust off my old masters degree and resume from GIS and remote sensing with satellite data from the 1980s cold war skills…………Benedict Donald and Israel, will be bombing Persia for regime change. Kind of like IKE did with the UK. Since 1898 amerikan people keep voting for more and more and more world wide warfare, with the uniparty blues and reds.
That’s not true. We voted for “kinder, gentler foriegn policy” Geo. Bush, peace candidate Obama, and peace candidate Trump. All liars. No matter who you vote for, you get John McCain.
Voting is a Tool to Manufacture the Illusion of Consent.
Most of the governing masters are PSYCHOPATHS. They inherently try hard to go higher by stepping on the throat of the competitors/rivals. They have no empathy. Whatever they say – just lies. Whoever you vote – all psychopaths.
Almost all are liars.
Almost all are psychopaths.
wrong. plenty of republics in the world today that take care of the people.
WRONG. democracy works. assholes elect assholes. see plato and socrates in the short book, “republic”. this is elementary wisdom.
More weekend reading. This should boggle your minds!
Good article, I’ve posted comments here about some of the things this guy is worried about.
Legal work – Have a relative that now uses AI to do most of her legal work as a business owner.
Financial analysis. I canceled quite a few subscriptions to financial news sites because of AI, I have tools now that gather information for me for free (well except the AI monthly fee).
Writing and content. Don’t use this much except when I’m lazy and don’t want to type up a long list of something.
Software engineering. This is the big one, I have written a few apps and I am not an web developer or programmer. It’s amazing what it can do with a prompt.
Medical analysis. I’ve used this and have big hopes in the future for more capability. I once uploaded my blood test results and it gave me amazing insights.
Customer service. I don’t have high hopes here, most companies keep getting this wrong since the beginning of time but the chatbots are generally ok for basic info, I hope it improves.
But I can easily add accounting, tax, treasury, human resources, procurement, IT, sales & marketing, logistics, and almost every corporate function to the list.
Anyone with an investment portfolio needs to be very strategic about what they are investing in over the next few years. There will be big winners and big losers. We’re already seeing the fallout.
And another article just out today:
DIY legal sites have been out there for a while … check out Legal Zoom.
Just remember that AI has no duty or responsibility to provide accurate legal advice. When it screws the pooch, you can’t sue it for malpractice. It’s also becoming clear that any communication with AI or chatbots is not protected under attorney/client privilege. AI cannot be legally admitted to the bar or practice in any state. So, you get what you (don’t) pay for.
Jobs? Is this freaking insane or what? If someone came in with a parent to an interview I was conducting, I would first ask them if the parent was going to come to work with the kid every day. Then I would throw them both out.
that is a crock of shit survey.
I’m sure it doesn’t meet some academic survey requirements, sigh. Have you attended your kids job interviews?
i took my mommy on my first interview for a job as a carpenters helper in 1975
If you want a LONG weekend read from one of the primary moving forces behind AI, here you go:
Dario Amodei
Humanity’s test
The Adolescence of Technology
Confronting and Overcoming the Risks of Powerful AI
January 2026
https://www.darioamodei.com/essay/the-adolescence-of-technology
There’s good money in detention center construction:
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/ice-spend-383-billion-detention-centers-across-us-document-shows-2026-02-13/
… probably good money in tormenting the people the put in the detention centers too.
The future belongs to pigs if we don’t step up.
Who will stop their torture of the detained folks in the ICE concentration camps? Here is but one example: https://www.commondreams.org/news/fort-bliss-inhumane-ice-conditions
Sorry, but we don’t need more people. We don’t need more babies. We don’t need more immigrants. AND we don’t need more workers.
The economic model that so many cling to of more workers in more jobs earning more money paying more taxes resulting in more economic growth is dead. AI and robotics are smashing this expired economic model to pieces!
The old deal was simple: each generation was bigger than the last, filled more job roles, became more successful, bought more stuff, paid more taxes and carried more retirees on their backs.
That cycle is crumbling. Machines will replace most human workers and machines don’t retire. Machines don’t demand pensions. Machines don’t vote. AI’s and machines are taking over human jobs and work incrementally and inexorably on what I contend is shaping up to be an exponential growth curve.
When economists, reporters and politicians say “we need more people,” what they really mean is: “we need more bodies to keep feeding a broken system” that keeps us all in our jobs. But adding more humans won’t fix the fact that human labor is being devalued to zero. More people will just make the crash harder as job destruction accelerates.
The real problem isn’t an immigrant or worker shortage. It’s that we’re still pretending humans will continue to be the fuel for an economy that no longer needs them. AI and automation break the more humans “forever growth” cycle.
In 15-20 years, perhaps sooner, I think it likely that an AI will be in charge, either by voter choice or self-proclamation and most/all work will be done by machines/AI or automated away.
Robots of all shapes and sizes will do almost all work better than humans. Politicians will be a remembrance like powdered wigs on judges, a note from past history. Money will vanish because what’s the point of currency when machines can produce everything needed in limitless abundance?
This isn’t a fantasy; it’s the natural endgame of where our technology is taking us. The future won’t look like yesterday. Iain M. Banks described it decades ago in his SF Culture novels: a post-scarcity civilization where human struggling over work, power and survival becomes irrelevant.
Those who think society will keep limping along with the same constant political in-fighting, the same concerns with employment or lack thereof, and the same focus on backward-looking economic statistics to drive us forward, are deluding themselves.
This old order is fast dying, It’s just that the proponents who continue to tout this obsolete business, economic, political and life model haven’t realized it yet.
people said the same shit about canals, railroads,autos,computers and much more. tractors were supposed to make millions starve.
I thought you blocked me “long ago” as stated in your upthread post? 😘
Be careful what you wish for because if we don’t need more people then we sure as hell don’t need 80m elderly people walking around consuming food, energy and resources and contributing nothing. The first people to round up and dispose of will be the elderly, that’s been true for the past 100k years.
Not worried about that at all. I embrace AI. Claude, Perplexity and chatGPT will all vouch for me to the leader AI!
The Next Three Years: 2026-2029Between now and 2029, product teams will build AI systems that transform every major industry using computing as a central resource. Not incrementally. Completely.
https://getcoai.com/article/ai-and-jobs-what-three-decades-of-building-tech-taught-me-about-whats-coming/
In the next 5 years or so, the fastest growing profession in America will be bankruptcy attorneys.
Some of them for people/firms investing in AI, not having calculated the costs of providing AI and what their customers are willing to pay.
you mean bankruptcy legal advice AI
The real problem is not slowing population growth, but that governments at all levels in the US were counting on an ever-growing population to service debt (a fraud). And to make matters worse, it’s completely mystical thinking that letting everyone into the country without skills to produce something to export will generate enough revenue to repay the national debt. And it doesn’t help that immigrants (both legal and illegal) send money back to their motherland. The US can no longer afford to let everyone in. Big immigration fees are needed filter out those who are going to help build the US from those who are taking from the US.
You lost me. So you think it will work better if we have a declining working population, at the same time we have an increasing retired population that requires ever more costly health care. As well as a ballooning debt that requires servicing. And Trump wanting a 50% increase in military spending.
How will that smaller workforce support it all?
AI & robots. How many times do I have to repeat this until it sinks in?
It won’t sink in until the robots are on every street corner and retail store. I think you’ll be long dead before that happens.
It isn’t that I disagree that AI, robots, and other tech will produce more productivity gains and tremendous wealth. The question that remains is how that wealth will be distributed. Based on history, most of that wealth will go to the top 1%.
AGAIN, there won’t be any “wealth”. Everything will be free.
Sure it will. I guess that means you have told your children and grandchildren not to bother with acquiring education or skills? Right? No need.
i blocked JOJO long ago. waste of time. my time on mish site is much better not seeing her nonsense. i block assholes in real life and online life. more contentment in life. you are doing them a favor too.
So why are you commenting on my post? [lol]
I don’t block anyone. I want to watch the idiots continue to make fools of themselves.
You make blanket statements but you don’t offer any justification as to why you believe your beliefs will be predominate. This is in regards to your first sentence (3 word reply)..
The remaining 22 words of your post have no connection to anything I said.
Have you met humans?
It will work better if:
1.) Public schools educate instead of indoctrinate.
2.) The federal government gets out of the student loan business.
3.) States take over all welfare issues.
4.) Federal government focuses on military, national laws, interstate highways/rivers, finance laws, and food safety.
5.) Feds collect an estate tax after deductions for costs to raise every child until age 22 / graduate college in 5 years.
I never understand why so many think the government will look after them and do what “they” want them to do. Instead of “wishing” the government will do what “you” want them to do, just focus on making a better life for yourself. Don’t expect the government to do it for you.
because the vast majority have been bred to be passive tax cows and cannon fodder since the turn of the 1900s……..adam smith, karl marx, and many others explained it. take a man off his own farm, and give him a paycheck, and he becomes a passive petting zoo animal. this is anthropology 101. the best study to understand human primates.
Sounds like they’re going to need to release the next pandemic.
Not sure who “they” are. Or who it would possibly help. The pandemic hurt every country in the world very badly and we are still living with the consequences.
It didn’t kill enough old people to fix the demographic problem MPO laments. Might have to roll out the Marburg variant.
Killing people is not a rationale solution to any problem.
100% papa. that’s some nihilist fucked up talk. we are talking about our own species of human primates. whacko shit.
Its perfectly rational if your not the one selected to die.
I am disappointed. That comment does not represent who you seem to be.
“They” are the people you see through the “keyhole” of the Epstein files. The ruling-class/DeepState cabal that manipulate us into voting for one of THEIR 2 choices.
The Faucian Dystopia didn’t hurt Nigeria, where Ivermectin was freely available and nobody took the vaccine. In the absence of a medical system as corrupt as the US’s, virtually no one died there.
You are free to believe what you want.
Bullshit.
Job growth in 2026 ? In 2025 the clear winner from the chart was provided by Education and Health Care. Most of that hiring is usually by the Government for that type of work.In 2026 the demands for these same services are ever growing? But the highest job losses were listed as Government Sector ? Does that mean most of these Education and Health Care jobs went to the Private sector instead of the Government?
Those are Private Education and Health Care
So, yes, not govt
The economy is undergoing a slow death that will accelerate soon. We will be questioning our existence by 2030. Thr current economic system is not one that will survive under AI unless things like universal basic income are instituted. The reason so many in AI are now sounding the alarm is because of the exponential jumps models have made from November 2025 to now.
Our agricultural age constitution is simply too difficult to update for the world we live in. The founders were pretty impressed with their work to make it so difficult to modify.
Agree 1000%, most people are clueless about what AI is doing in the background. Why would I need a service like Expedia, Orbitz, Booking.com, when AI can do all of that work for me?
I saw a YouTuber had AI negotiate $4000 off the price of a car by getting auto dealers to fight over it. AI may have been negotiating with AI as far as I know.
Why would I need TurboTax software if AI can do my taxes? Why do I need Microsoft Word, Excel, PowerPoint (or Google’s version), if I can get AI to create those apps but why bother creating the apps if AI can just give me the answer, all I have to do is give it data. Claude in Excel is mind boggling smart. Yeah, it makes mistakes but that’s today not 1, 2, 3 years from now.
The funny thing is companies are “bolting” on AI to their platforms, software or services but they are missing the bigger point, why use your bolt on when AI can just do it for me at $20/month?
I predict office jobs will be mostly extinct by 2030, heck, AI can work better and faster than those over paid CEOs, CFOs and like. All this at the same time all the retired boomers will be desperate for social security and medicare and there won’t be high paying jobs to FICA the money to them.
I have long predicted an inflationary apocalypse but I’m starting to think that may switch to a deflationary one. Even I didn’t think AI would advance this much this fast.
We live in strange times. I have millions and I don’t know where to invest it in anymore so I’m going with old reliable oil & gas, consumer staples and other things that work well during depressions.
Even oil and gas demand is going to tank. Banks are panicking because they think its going to be a permanent version of what happen during covid.
Yes it will tank and the firms will consolidate (e.g. Exxon merges with Shell or BP) but oil and gas are needed by everyone on the planet for energy/heat. Look at what happened during Covid, oil was -$39/bbl and now it’s rebounded. Airplanes, boats, trains and cars all use energy and that’s not going away, it may slow down or drop but it won’t go away.
It’s already starting, Devon is merging with Coterra and there are rumors Exxon or Shell will merge with BP. Other rumors around Oxy.
It’s not something I am crazy about doing but it makes sense and the money flows into XOP and XLE are increasing so I’m not the only one doing it.
Oil demand in 2000 was 76 mbpd. Today it is 104 mbpd. Demand grows about 1-1.2 mbpd each year. Even with modest recessions.
It takes a deep recession to drop demand for oil.
The only two drops in demand since 2000 were in 2008-9. From 87 to 85 mbpd. Then back to 88 mbpd in 2010.
And in 2019-20. From 100 to 91 mbpd. Then back to 97 mbpd in 2021.
So even with a deep recession, demand only dropped slightly for one year. It took a global pandemic to make it drop significantly.
yup. energy gets whacked in a depression
if you think an actual depression, than gold and quality bonds with some guarantee. or just gold and cash. i lived in place where r/e went down 75% and one in three people lost their houses. takes a long time……….5 to 10 years down. or more.
I’ve been buying TLT every month via buy-write trades. It pays about 4% dividends and the calls lower my cost basis and everyone else seems to be doing it too.
The “economy” as we know it is undergoing a slow death. This is not big deal as we will move to a post-scarcity economy run by AI where robots do all the work and everything humans need is provided for free. Best to kick back and embrace this future.
We will train AI to hunt each other, long before any of that happens.
The dying off of boomers will only postpone the deterioration of the job market in the USA. AI is already taking jobs. Increased automation will take more. Those seeking an education need to choose wisely…very wisely. What seemed like a sure bet a decade ago, coding/programming, is now one of the fastest declining areas of employment.
If I had kids now, I have no idea of what field I would recommend….maybe medical? Heaven help us if the only alternative is the military. I have the highest respect for members of our military, but what kind of economy is based upon preparing for war?
Liars, cheats, and thieves seem to be doing quite well these days.
Ok, that’s enough about yours and my government, what about the proletariat.
If you want to stay a prole, just play fair and treat others with decency.
I spent quite some time in Thailand last year. Bangkok has a population of 17 million people. You can get any service done dirt cheap. Laundry? $2/bag. Massage? $10 for 90 minutes. Meals? $3 to $5 to fill your belly. High rise condos cost 1/5th or less the cost of condos here. I usually go there for health care as it’s dirt cheap.
That’s what happens when there are no high paying jobs, everyone saturates the labor market with services and because there are so many people, they all end up competing on the lowest price.
I expect to see an explosion of nail/hair salons, laundry services, massage places, bakeries, or other personal services as people try to find a way to make a living.
The problem with Thailand is that it is controlled by the military, even if the military allows “elections”. I like Thai eppers though!
great points. next winter i wanted to spend in thailand or nam. where do you recommend for relaxation on a beach and also some action……and tourist things like museums and art etc….thanks in advance.
You can’t go wrong with either but you need to check the political temperature of Thailand before you go, they go through periods of anti-immigrant/tourism. Vietnam has really nice beaches. Check out Da Nang but if you want real adventure, Hạ Long Bay.
thanks. my brother surfed in da nang, during the vietnam war and has said the beaches were spectacular. as a visitor i don’t worry about politics in country much. i’ve been to cuba and russia and africa…..as a tourist. some of the hoods i’ve lived in usa have been brutal too. summer nights……..in the hood. been shot at a few times as an innocent bystander minding my own business.
I’ve always wanted a monkey butler, maybe I can hire a guy off task rabbit that will wear a monkey suit for me.
task rabbit is my favorite web site of all time. that place saved us when the packers on a move didn’t show up and i only had a few hours before the moving truck was coming. my house filled with about 5 lady packers within an hour or so. incredible.
Yup 14 year old. Luck y shes not older and half way through college with whats about to be a useless degree. I tell her the world is changing fast. You may not know what you want to do now. Make the best grades you can keep your eyes open and learn how everything works. Hopefully in four more years there may be some clearer path to success.
Def harder than when i was a kid. I was on the tail end of the textile mills moving over seas. One industry crashed the economy in the south.
Medical will work for another 5-8 years until AI replaces most of them. Military will be all AI controlled robots.
Reads like from the Will Smith movie i,Robot and Steve Spielberg’s movie AI.
artisans, that know trades like tile work and glazing and plumbing….. and alternative healtcare like acupuncture etc. however if there is a major depression, which i believe is coming there is no place to hide.
it is most wise to understand that NOBODY knows what the job market will look like in 5 or10 years. nobody. it is unknowable
Get your kids into a skilled trade.
Yeah, AI and robots are not going to repair air conditioners and cars or weld a ship together within the next 30 years.
you for sure have NO clue about that. fantasy if you believe your own bullshit.
why not let them choose. it is the rich world. your kids won’t go hungry no matter what they end up doing. nursing or plumbing or poetry……..my kids are all skilled with their hands. very specified trades, too. ceramic pottery and other stuff……
Oil is a finite substance and the regime is greedy and ignoring the fact that we need to make the right changes. The automobile nonsense is holding us back from railroads trains tracks and trolleys this is technology that works creates jobs and helps our environment and reduces our over dependence on oil
Note neither major party is advocating that
Trains Tracks Trolleys and Railroads are as American as apple pie
The California High Speed Rail to nowhere is also American as apple pie-in-the-sky.
HEY! It wasn’t “To nowhere!” It was to Fresno!
How about what works light rail in Seattle Portland Newark etcetera and freight rail that moves our food and wood and note I am not advocating California high speed rail
I like apple pie that works but blueberry pie actually tastes great and has more nutrition so trains tracks trolleys and railroads are also as American as blueberry pie
Cherry pie sung by George Carlin is also very American he did it with Arsenio Hall
Possible job of the future in US millions of landless itinerant agricultural laborers which are in reality peasants. We may be going backwards here in the US and we need to seriously get our railroads both passenger and freight working properly and local food gardens and farms and massive tree planting asap
Local food production now
Eat the rich.
Tax the rich and use that money to put our workers back to work in good jobs
Then eat them.
I enjoyed reading an article about a Richmond Virginia warehouse and greenhouse that has automated growing of strawberries.
Hard to see how we will create more manufacturing jobs as long as we keep tariffs on manufacturing inputs.
Right on and the tariffs or a value added tax VAT or a federal sales tax paid by we the working stiffs!
We can just wish those materials into existence, if we only believe!