History suggests Michigan will likely be hit the hardest.
The latest State Employment and Unemployment Summary from the BLS shows Michigan just passed California for the second highest unemployment rate in the nation after Nevada, not counting D.C. as a state.
Unemployment Rates Significantly Different From National
Unemployment Rate Detail
Michigan’s Unemployment Spike
The Wall Street Journal discusses Michigan’s Unemployment Spike
President Trump’s tariffs will harm all 50 states. But ground zero is Michigan, which was already coping with rising unemployment and job losses in manufacturing before his border taxes hit.
Michigan’s unemployment rate in March spiked to 5.5% from 4.2% a year earlier, according to the Labor Department’s state employment report on Friday. That’s the biggest jump of any state. Michigan has catapulted over California and Illinois to claim the nation’s second highest unemployment rate after Nevada (5.7%).
One culprit is the Biden Administration’s electric-vehicle mandate, which has caused thousands of auto-industry layoffs. Michigan has been shedding manufacturing jobs since summer 2023 and has lost about 13,000 in the last year. This month General Motors said it would temporarily cut 200 jobs at its EV factory in Detroit amid slowing demand.
Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Democratic lawmakers created a hostile business environment after taking complete control of the statehouse in 2023. They repealed the state’s right-to-work law that gave workers a choice of whether to join a union and imposed prevailing-wage mandates that shut out non-union contractors from state-funded construction projects.
To pay for more transfer payments, Democrats last year raised the state’s flat income tax rate to 4.25% from 4.05%. Ms. Whitmer recently pitched raising the corporate rate to 8% from 6%. Nearly 90% of businesses that would be affected employ fewer than 100 workers. Hard to believe, Ms. Whitmer fashions herself as a pro-business moderate.
Mr. Trump’s tariffs will compound this Democratic damage. Michigan last year imported $53.8 billion of motor vehicles and parts from Mexico and $22.1 billion from Canada. These are now subject to a 25% tariff. Michigan manufacturers also rely heavily on steel and aluminum from Canada, which Mr. Trump has also hit with a 25% tariff.
Michigan shed another 4,500 manufacturing jobs last month as the metal tariffs took effect. Some auto suppliers have reported slowing production and held off hiring because of uncertainty caused by his auto tariffs. Ford stopped shipping cars made in Michigan to China owing to Beijing’s retaliatory tariffs.
Democrats in Lansing may be driving Michigan into an economic ditch, but Mr. Trump’s tariffs will make him jointly liable for the harm.
Michigan is a perennial recession loser and the cards are already falling that way again.
Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs add to Biden’s EV nonsense and the Governor’s tax folly to make Michigan a big loser again.
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March 26, 2025: News Flash: Trump Says “Car Companies Will Be Thrilled With Tariffs”
The word of the hour is “thrilled” by 25 percent tariffs on autos starting April 2.
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April 18, 2025: Ford Halts Shipments of F-150s and Other Models to China, Winning?
The shipment halt is a logical conclusion to something no one would buy.
No one could possibly have seen this coming except …
April 6, 2025: Michigan’s Economy Will Be the First Big Loser of Tariff Madness
Nearly 20 Percent of Michigan’s economy is directly or indirectly related to autos.
And here we are.
“I thought you were a libertarian.”
What a hoot.
I don’t give a damn what car anyone drives. I do not believe in subsidies or tariffs on them. I would import more BYDs. You chastise me as if I am not a Libertarian when it’s clear you are a raging Left climate cult member.
If we had more competition in EVs more people would drive them. Same with Trump’s idiotic tariffs on solar panels.
The WSJ article starts out with a falsehood: Michigan did not have rising unemployment before the tariffs. In fact it was doing well with substantial re-investment in manufacturing occurring. Its real estate markets were recovering as well. Will it get hit by trumps tariff war? Yes, it will!
Michigan voted for trump so they will suffer for their gullibility.
Trumponomics at work.
With the fed fixing interest rates and the federal government regulations and tax policy the economy has been planned for a long time. Add to that the size of the federal government that contributes next to nothing economically, their planning can only be deleterious the US citizen and US business. Trump’s tariffs only exacerbate the problem as he is planning to have more US manufacturing and planning for the world to lower barriers to US imports. I believe it would be much more effective for the government to cut regulations significantly and cut its size by a quarter to a third. As support for my thoughts, the US government did this following WW1 and the Spanish Flu pandemic that ushered in the roaring twenties roughly a year and a half later. In Argentina, the new president has done similar, and the country is beginning to thrive again. Planned economies by whatever name do not work, but people and business left to make decisions in their own best interest with in minimum regulatory boundaries work out better.
68 years here in Michigan, multiple generations of auto workers and I can tell you that Michigan always gets hit the hardest in every recession.
I believe it will be the state of denial that will continue to infect the American administration. Sorry that’s’ not what you wanted to hear.
I agree, they should tell the people the truth about the austerity we need to undergo to turn things for the better. Real leadership has the courage and humility to be honest about the challenges. And thats also true for citizens. We need to pay attention to whats going on and live responsibly meaning have savings for rainy days and live morally and be patient, enduring, and forgiving and giving to others, as God is to us.
Yeah, well Carter was honest with the people and they got rid of him…
Interesting question. I’m not sure which state will suffer the worst unemployment. It depends on Trump and his ever changing policies and statements.
What matters is whether the US economy as a whole is growing or shrinking. With the current tariff war that Trump has started, what is clear is that all states will suffer, no matter which industry dominates in that state.
Farmers will struggle to export their crops, while enduring higher costs.
Same for manufacturers.
Same for the tourism industry; the auto industry; energy industry; etc.
Of course, a lot depends on the ever changing tariff regime. If tariffs on auto parts finally kick in on May 3, then the auto industry will shut down in weeks.
If China keeps tariffs on US agricultural products, then farm states will suffer.
If Trump keeps pissing off international travellers, then tourism suffers more.
If tariffs remain on aluminum and steel imports, lots of manufacturing will suffer.
But trade wars are so easy to win…
I would venture to guess either Nevada or Florida since both are quite dependent on tourism. Although per the listed states, Nevada’s unemployment rate is already 2% higher than Florida, so Florida would have to lose a lot of jobs to catch up to Nevada. With consumers running out of cash, vacations will be be one of the first things to be cut by households, although some may try to increase their cash-flow at the slots and black-jack tables in Vegas. Who the heck knows? The world is strange.
Real estate and professional services are the largest industries in Florida now. Florida also has a decent manufacturing base and I believe is 10th in the country now. Hospitality and leisure services still employ a lot of people, but most of those jobs are low paying. And as far as tourism goes, we get a lot of international travelers who most likely will benefit from a weak dollar. Since Covid, the influx of wealthy Northerners has increased exponentially, and that probably won’t change either, especially as some of these states become even more determined to pick the pockets of their wealthiest citizens.
Many of the wealthy have been in effect stealing from the present and future by supporting, with campaign contributions, and electing the reckless senseless deficit spending uniparty politicians, so a big tax increase on them would be very appropriate.
Connecticut and Rhode Island. Blue states with high taxes and stagnant economies outside of areas proximate to New York City and Boston, respectively. When the finance boom stops, these two states will be hit hard.
Who told u that there will be a recession.
History and all of the various debts that have to be paid. And a recession will be appropriate because we are responsible for it and hopefully it will be a lesson to many although it was totally unnessary because history, that we have foolishly ignored, has shown countless times that debts do matter.
I wouldn’t read too much into California’s high rate – Agriculture is still a huge portion of our economy, and Imperial County (home of winter vegi’s) often has 20% unemployment between planting seasons – ditto some of the Central Valley. Then there is always a huge churn in the Silcon Valley – layoffs at Meta, hiring by Chat GPT, but people on unemployment for a few months. The place to watch is the Port of LA with no Chinese ships. If that continues, we could be in big trouble.
Whitmer / Michigan, huh?
Way, way, way back around this time 5 years ago –
Michigan Bans Many Stores From Selling Seeds, Home Gardening Supplies, Calls Them “Not Necessary”
I recognize that there a lot of passionate gardeners in Michigan and I’ve heard from a lot of you,” she added. “Right now, my immediate concern is to try and keep everyone in Michigan safe.”
I don’t remember that showing up in a post here at the time.
Innocent enough, just trying to keep people from being out in the sun too much, right?
She didn’t get paid off by anybody, right?
Any book or movie about the “kidnapping” coming out soon?
TIME: If we still have high tariffs, whether it’s 20% or 30% or 50%, on foreign imports a year from now, will you consider that a victory?
TRUMP:Total victory.
TIME:Why so?
TRUMP:Because the country will be making a fortune. Look, that’s what China did to us. They charge us 100%. If you look at India—India charges 100-150%. If you look at Brazil, if you look at many, many countries, they charge—that’s how they survive. That’s how they got rich. Now, zero would be easy. Oh, zero would be easy, but zero, you wouldn’t have any companies coming in. They’re coming in because they don’t want to pay the tariffs. Remember this, there are no tariffs, if they make their product here. There are no tariffs, if they make their product here. There are no tariffs. This is a tremendous success. You just don’t know it yet, but this is a tremendous success what’s happening…..
That boy don’t math so good. This is why primary education is so important.
Doh.
Short sighted Mish on EVs. I expect you already believe in climate change and understand how fossil fuels contribute. And then we go from there….increased climate intensifed weather and all the costs that result. And, an issue that isn’t talked about enough – the health costs of air pollution caused by fossil fules. Growing up, I remember one child that had asthma – now asthma is too common. I thought you were a libertarian. True capitalism requires an attribution of all costs.
and EVs are the solution? explain how.
They are not for that reason, but it’s because people fail to understand how many batteries will be dumped in places where they will end up leaching into the water. Most will not pay to properly dispose of them. Many will get dumped over and over as newer and better and even less costly batteries become available. Potentially destroying our water systems is certain areas, and certainly costing Millions if not Billions to clean it all up, when we have no choice, of course…
and in that explanation, please demonstrate the net superiority of EVS after accounting for, as you deem so necessary in your reference to capitalism, financial costs, human costs, and environmental costs. again, please quantify the net benefit compared to the combustion engine.
I would like to know as well, as I tried coming up with a list but didn’t make it too far… They are:
1. Far Less cos… Nope!
2. Very Easy to rech… Nope!
3. Much Better for the Env… Nope!
4. The Charges last a lon… Nope!
5. Less costly to Rep… Nope!
6. Will Add Jo… Nope!
7. Our Electric Grid can easily Han… Nope!
8. They are Faster! Yep! I found ONE!!!
They’re also great if you like sending child miners down rickety wooden ladders into the bowels of the Congo to hand mine cobalt for starvation wages.
One of the bigger attributes I agree… it must be for “The Kids” one something…
Probably still better than castrating children …
You didn’t strike me as a sentimentalist with a social conscience.
Its good these kids learn a work ethic at an early age. They could be out committing crime otherwise or leeching of the US aid budget.
I’m excited for her response where we get to discuss the ethical nature of lithium mining. that said, the torque is real!
You won’t get one, as it was the standard emotional rant. Things like “Short sighted Mish on EVs” and “you already believe in climate change” “understand how fossil fuels contribute”.
And then we go from there….
increased climate intensifed: “weather and all the costs” and “health costs of air pollution” adding “caused by fossil fules”.
And of course… “I remember one child that had asthma” ONE, I had Asthma, so now you know Two. Many I know had Asthma, but didn’t as I didn’t after their teenage years.
Let’s not add this to another made up list for points please…
I thought I was the only one who didn’t enjoy being lectured to about capitalism by somebody who’s never heard the term externalities and/or who learned everything they know about economics from a freshman sociology class.
I only keep reading to help me understand why they speak like they do. Once “Emotions” enter the fray, all “Objectivity” is tossed out. It’s like every answer, but the one they have cemented, is not right because… a litany of emotional responses, that typically existed long before whatever it is they are hung up on, and sometimes nothing at all to do with “Why” or even the main point of the topic. It just gets absurdly incompetent to understand or make the connections they have made. In other words “Futile”
The value of the Virtue Signal. “In this house…”
I’ve lived most of my life in the USA, but I’ve spent nearly 15 years in Korea and China. I’ve taught thousands of children in northeast Asia and none of them have been asthmatic, and I haven’t seen it among adults either, but I had several asthmatic friends growing up in rural Tennessee in the 1980s. Aside from just anecdotal experience, it’s well-documented that there are more people with asthma in the USA compared to northeast Asia on a per capita basis, despite Korea and especially China having really terrible air quality compared to rural Tennessee.
From ChatGPT:
Asthma is more common per capita in the United States compared to China and South Korea. Here’s a comparison based on available data:
🇺🇸 United States
🇰🇷 South Korea
🇨🇳 China
While air quality can be a contributing factor, it appears the poor diet and “body positivity” in the USA are bigger factors, as obesity is strongly linked to asthma. Also, it’s more common to have carpeting and to sleep on a mattress in the USA, which are breeding grounds for mites, which also contribute to asthma.
Carpeting definitely an issue. Probably poor carb filled US diet a contributory factor, in the US of course. Make America Thin Again. Or just proportionate.
Kids aren’t getting asthma from air pollution due to fossil fuels. Things were orders of magnitude worse in the 70s and 80s than they are now and as you noted, asthma was rare then.
Whatever is causing the spike isn’t due to air pollution from fossil fuels.
Having had Asthma, it’s a “Respiratory” issue. Like you cannot breathe! Let’s just look in the past 4 Years for a possible candidate shall we…
1. Covid (wasn’t that respiratory in nature)?
2. Flu (isn’t that always respiratory) caused by everything, but never really defined by what exactly?
3. Are not respiratory issues the biggest thing to hit our Country in a long, long time? I have heard “Ventilators” and Breathing “Apparatus” and the likes since long after Covid. So what is it?
It also tends to cure itself by most, if you got it when young like me. I think all my friends who had it (you know each other from gym class if nowhere else) lost it by their 20’s. I was probably 19? I think.
Maybe pollution stresses it but it can’t and doesn’t show up that way. Not to mention that we have far less today than ever. So scratch that too…
“Increase climate intensified weather” …. Henny Penny : “The sky is falling”. Lulz. Pollution, ok. Its less than it was, no?
Seems like a version of the pattern the world is coping with: the damage from the hard swings between (overreaching) versions of the powerful federal US government. Both sides seem business-hostile in their own ways, especially to these heavy industries with slow, costly adjustments to sudden whims of the executive. Delegating too much to the executive branch is supposed to get things done, but it can result in big, conflicting changes. So Congress and the voting public need to ask what will get us out of this ditch? Two giants can wrestle themselves and each other into a quagmire.
Given the kavetching by the gentrified monied class after 4 down days in the market and the fact that we’ve had one brief, steep recession due to the plandemic in 17 years…and given the jawboning response in the last 2 weeks and the massive fiscal and monetary stimulus in 2020/1, I find the concept of a recession almost quaint at this point, something from yesteryear.
And boy, if it ever hits, and if their response is futile, 2 – 3 generations of folks will be caught flat-footed and stare in disbelief.
i.e. I’ll believe we have one only after it happens. They’ll do (was it Juncker that said it) whatever it takes to avoid it. Folks still haven’t squared the circle that the $37+ trillion we have in debt is THE reason the markets have risen 2x the historical average, on average, over the last 16 years.
Sat in on the town hall for my Congressman and given the markets are basically flat since Nov 5th you’d think we had already fallen in some great depression, as if it’s expected and required to have markets only go up and with a check-valve no less.
Wild Assed Guess: Florida, because its real estate market is so volatile. While its climate and lack of income tax still beckons many, that will slow if retirees feel (and are) less wealthy. Construction will grind down and that will be the cause of unemployment.
I invite rebuttal, since this is just a guess.
Also tourism is about to be destroyed and the biggest tourist attraction in the world is in Orlando.
Correct
A self inflicted wound too, it takes real foresight to allienate ones clientele from across the globe. Another win.
I see that point, and I would have to guess a lot of homes, which are small by nature of the buying public in many parts of FL. Are fully paid for or have a small amount from a HELOC or some thing like that. If that assumption is correct, then people won’t need to but, as the Boomers are starting to drop, and the numbers of home availability and those built already will explode as time goes on for FL. Anyway IMO.
Florida economy is dominated by low paying service jobs since tourism is the number one driver of the economy here (note that snowbirds who winter here for 6 months are in essence tourists who vacation for 6 months).
Those types of workers tend to be transient . That is they move where the jobs are including out of State if necessary (In the first 10 years I lived here I went through multiple groups of friends who worked those jobs who ultimately moved away when the jobs dried up or they got more money elsewhere) and so won’t show up long term in UI rates.