Please consider the Detroit Regional Chamber Statewide COVID-19 Impact Poll taken April 15-16.
Highlights
- 29% of respondents are furloughed, laid off, or unable to work.
- 27.3% of respondents that were working prior to the outbreak have been forced to file for unemployment.
- 42.6% of respondents that were working prior to the outbreak, are now furloughed, laid off, or unable to work.
- 69% of furloughed or laid-off workers face catastrophic to major financial impact.
- 28% of respondents are worried about putting food on the table.
- The majority of respondents, 50%, believe Michigan is already in a recession.
Economic Impact at Individual Level
- 12% said the impact was catastrophic.
- 35% said the impact was major.
- 36% said the impact was minor.
- 15% said there was no impact at all.
Millennials had the hardest impact. 21% of respondents under the age of 30 said that the impact was catastrophic.
Food on the Table
- 54% of furloughed or laid off respondents are worried about putting food on their table.
- 54% of African American respondents are worried about putting food on their table.
- 45% of those aged 18 to 29 are worried about putting food on their table.
- 40% of those aged 30 to 39 are worried about putting food on their table.
Unemployment
Respondents that felt forced to file for unemployment were asked whether or not they have been successful.
- 48% of furloughed or laid off have been successful in filing for unemployment.
- 37% of furloughed or laid off have NOT been successful in filing for unemployment.
- 15% of these respondents are not sure if they have been successful in filing for unemployment.
- 52% of unemployed workers under the age of 30 have not been able to successfully file for unemployment.
Calculating the Unemployment Rate
Point two highlights a huge pool of unemployed who have not yet filed and thus do not show up in existing claims. That is important for estimating the unemployment rate.
Recall that the unemployment rate is not determined by actual claims, but rather by the result of the household phone survey by the BLS.
Over 25% of Michigan Workforce Filed For Unemployment
On April 14, I commented Over 25% of Michigan Workforce Filed For Unemployment.
At that time I came up with an unemployment rate of 28.9% assuming there would be another 250,000 claims.
Point two suggests something on the order of 400,000 unemployment claims to come, not 250,000.
New Calculation
1 million newly recorded claims + 400,000 claims to come + 180,000 existing unemployed / 4.95 million workforce = 31.9% unemployment rate.
The new calculation assumes that the poll is correct and that unemployment claims will match how people respond to the Household Survey.
That may not be the case. Regardless, Michigan rates to be a total disaster.
Mish
Low interest? Isn’t that why we have Spyder and ETFs?
I remember coming out of the last recession decent houses in Detroit (and a few other places) could be had for dirt cheap ($10K ish) to satisfy tax liens … revisit on tap.
Swedish expert: why lockdowns are the wrong policy.
Professor Johan Giesecke, one of the world’s most senior epidemiologists, advisor to the Swedish Government (he hired Anders Tegnell who is currently directing Swedish strategy), the first Chief Scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, and an advisor to the director general of the WHO, lays out with typically Swedish bluntness why he thinks:
UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based
The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only
This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product”
The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better
The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact
The paper was very much too pessimistic
Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway
The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown
The results will eventually be similar for all countries
Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.
The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%
At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available
In NYC, Dr. Zelenko treated 405 high risk patients as of 4/18 with the hydroxychloroquine cocktail and had good results. Only 4 had to go on a ventilator and 2 patients have died.
In addition to his clinical data, he is now starting a double blind study, which he expects will support the result of his accumulated clinical data.
In the world Sweden ranks
91st in population
159th in population density
10th in COVID-19 deaths per 1 million people at 175
next nearest Scandinavian country is Denmark
which has ~6 times the population density of Sweden
but ranks 20th in the world in COVID-19 deaths per 1 million people at 64
Giesecke’s statement “Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.” has been proven absolutely FALSE and whether intentional LIE or just that he is badly misinformed is the question.
Giesecke’s statement “The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%” is nothing but his guess based on his bias, possibly influenced by his FALSE assumption of ““mild disease” and similar to the flu”.
We’ll have to wait and see how it all plays out … keeping eyes on Sweden to see how well its strategy works in the longer term and realizing while they are not in official “lockdown” they have at least some measure of voluntary compliance with several guidelines that would be part of any official “lockdown”.
You are entitled to your own opinions, no matter how wrong or misguided they may be. Now, go look in the mirror and see what a tool looks like.
That is an EXCELLENT interview!
The Youtube link is:
I tend to use YouTube to share links where possible as people are less worried about going to YouTube than lesser known sites.
We should send this link to government officials and news organizations to try and knock some sense into them. I’ve sent the link to Gov. Newsom’s office in CA.
How representative is the potential unemployment claim backlog in other states?
Michelle Obama…
Dultards
Biden/Obama 2020
Day after inauguration Biden steps down..
8 more years of Obama-nation
McCain/Palin showed the world that the fix was in
This begs the question out here in California how so many have antibodies and why the outbreak hasnt been as big as the one in other large population areas.
All this LA antibody test is saying is that more people have C-19 than the official figures suggest. BTW, if you google R0 (on Wikipedia) and “herd immunity” you can do the math yourself: C-19 has an R0 between 1.4 to 5.7, which means between 29% to 82% of the population has to be infected before we have “herd immunity”. Even the lower number, 29%, is a big number and lots of people will die even with this lower number…
The antibody testing is still pretty dodgy, the FDA has not had a chance to vet most of them.
The mystery of numbers
55 times bigger means about 4% of the population.
It still has a long way to go to herd immunity.
(746,000*55 )/330,000,000 = 12.5%. But yes, still a long way to go. It looks like herd immunity is how this will go, regardless of what we do. No guarantee of a vaccine and too many asymptomatic carriers to trace.
I understand herd immunity but why doesn’t New York have herd immunity ? Simple question. Why are higher numbers of people dying based on geographic location. I think other factors like heat, humidity and even things like barometric pressure may be at play. There are so many variables at play here that nationwide studies may provide no clues because of this.
Hopefully they are looking at the genetics of the virus in each location. Seeing different experiences in different physical locations would seem to point to mutations occurring quickly.
Yes but this won’t matter really. This virus is from the family of common cold viruses. Eventually everyone will get it. And it will mutate to get us sick again in coming seasons. Vaccines and antibody treatments won’t be very useful. There is no cure to the common cold.
“Here I come to save the day”
That means that Mighty Mouse is on his way.
It would do little or nothing to help employment, but hey, it’s an election year. That sort of virtue signaling could help him in November.
So tech stocks can crash now?
Or will Trump be making the Indian stock market great again?
Also has he thought on who’s gonna work on agriculture, etc.
That was my thought exactly, who will harvest the food?
Who needs food. Each and every American will receive ONE stock certificate each. You can eat it, wipe your behind, etc.
It’s way past time to close that barn door. The horses are long gone, and squatters have moved into the barn.
@BobSmith, I think western Europe is like the US, though to a lesser degree. Am writing this from India. Here, like the Chinese, most people try to save at least 15 per cent of their income, if not more. Of course, there are many who cannot, but that is due to extreme poverty. The news about people in the US lining up in cars to collect free food beggars belief.
Re: the food lines:
Brother can you spare a dime?
Tom Waits
6 to 7 weeks or whatever with businesses shut down and the whole house of cards is on the brink of falling down? What if it was a real war?
It could be before it’s over.
You mean, like Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan…..? A decade or two of typical American failure, then “we” lose, get kicked out, and get to bring tens of thousands of dead and maimed Americans back with us?
I’ts starting before it’s over. Next shutdown on the horizon just in time to kill local businesses that survive round one.
South Africa is going into winter
With the epidemic taking off there
Hot food sale is banned, animal feed is now deemed an essential purchase
For those who are not aware that tRump have filed bankruptcy 7 times, wake up because he is filing bankruptcy the 8th time, only this time it is the bankruptcy of the good old USA.
The US was bankrupt before Trump, as was NJ, NY, IL and on and on.
If only…
If those other yahoos, the ones presiding during the 30s, had only followed, then expanded on, Mellons’s advice to liquidate it all, it would very likely be a better country today.
Thing is, it is never too late to liquidate obvious undifferentiated failure. Gold at $20/oz, no activity taxes and bankruptcy across the board, would do wonders for both this and other countries. While anything less, is worse than a takeover by The Taliban.
A hungry mob is an angry mob.
Think thats a bob marley quote
Don’t worry! Fed can print infinite amount of money from thin air!
Yep, and having access to the Fed window has been the name of the game for a long time.
To paraphrase John Donne:
For whom the printer brrrrs, it brrrrs for thee.
Unemployment payments now are $40k/year, minimum. That’s a livable wage.
In northern VA (DC) the max is $400 a week, $20K a year. In the DC area, that means you’re homeless. Please tell me where the $40K payments are because I’d like to move there.
The Federal government is topping the state benefit by $600/week under the CARES Act for 4 months. Thus, the max California benefit went from $450 to $1,050/wk. Must be $1,000 in Northern VA now.
Here you go. Damn! A lot of states are giving out big $$. Now add in an extra $600/wk for 4 months.
Max weekly (only those over $500):
$618/CO
$649-$724/CT (2nd # is if you have dependents)
$648/HI
$552/KY
$740/MN!
$713/NJ
$511/NM
$504/NY
$618/ND
$539/OK
$648/OR
$572-$580/PA
$586-$867/RI
$521/TX
$580/UT
$513/VT
$790/WA! <==== Highest in USA for a single person
$508/WY
Not everyone gets the max. In MN it is 50% of last income/week.
Coming from no. VA myself, I think most people there are well off, if you’ve lived there for more than 10 years. Most of my middle class neighbors are multi-millionaires and having savings, so I don’t feel too sorry for them. If you just moved there however, it’s back to Cleveland for you, sad to say.
“48% of furloughed or laid off have been successful in filing for unemployment.”
Our society has failed in a lot of ways, but this might be the one that takes it down. We’re a few weeks from people starting to starve.
Well, they ARE going to get an extra $600/week for a least 4 months of unemployment. Let them work a bit to get the reward.
Jojo,
I don’t think it’s wise to call it a reward. I got unemployment a few times when my back was against the wall and the kids would have gone hungry, happy to have it but sure never considered it a reward. (For a couple years I was on WIC. My job was telling MDs when to remove (an expendable) part of a baby’s brain to save their lives, or whether they’d recover without such a major surgery. Unfortunately, the university and med school did not feel this service was valuable enough to pay anything above poverty level. So much for science, I guess). In any case, in theory all us proles are going to have to to pay the handouts back. Either for real, or else via inflation, just as bad. I don’t recall that a reward.
Starvation? Probably not, the US has a vast amount of food produced by what, 1-2% of the population? The army or natl guard could make sure it was processed and brought to places to be distributed. That’s only common sense.
But, a train wreck resulting in a fundamental change in the US (world?) economy? That’s not impossible.
Still, you had 25% unemployment in the 1930s with no social net and things pretty much remained the same, then and after World War II got people working again. But, who knows?
Are you of draft age? You know, selective service. It took a war to unload restrictions on the market. Just think of it that way.
Lookit that guy! Clearly a Lizard Person!
Must have royal lineage. Queen Elizabeth can snap flies up in mid air with her tongue, I wonder if he can?
Looks the same in California! I had to drive about 30 mile round trip for a medical appointment today. Was wonderful! So little traffic was able to hold 75-82mph. Let’s not go back to work!
You can get medical appointments in California?
A road near us is much quieter now also, as in noise wise.
Portugal lockdown is mostly by people’s cooperation, in Spain they are fining everyone
The link to the original article at The Local gives more figures. What are they doing in US to enforce, or is it mostly by choice ?
My parents grew up in Eastern Europe and it was understood no matter how modest your wealth was, you would always keep enough savings for 6 months worth of bills at hand. Just perplexed by how many Americans face financial ruin without a job.
They hadn’t been subjected to relentless marketing through inescapable media for their entire lives. Americans exist to be monetized.
Sure, but at the end of the day it’s also a choice.
Americans want to live big without consequences and they get mad if told otherwise.
As I said before, Americans don’t really understand the meaning of “freedom”.
Choosing freely to live below your means == choosing dignity i.e. you’ll have savings, etc to tide you over difficult times.
But nah, Americans like to have their cake and eat it too.
100%
Debt and mortgages.
Many people do not get ahead of that, especially those that are younger. The idea of being in positive territory is just imagination, they just owe more or owe less, and if they need more they hope to borrow it or get bailed somehow.
Those that don’t live like that are renting and not earning much more than to survive, maybe just owning vehicles that they can afford, often new, where finance makes payment possible.
To my view, the whole system is geared against making prudent decisions.
Was this when Eastern Europe was communist? Weren’t rent and food subsidized? Weren’t there pensions? Wasn’t college free? Wasn’t health care free?
Apples to oranges.
I make far far far north of $100K but with three kids in college, maxing out the Roth contribution, health insurance, and a semi-fixer-upper mortgage in one of the most expensive cities in the US (no, I can’t find a job anywhere else) I pretty much live paycheck to paycheck. Until last year I drove a 1988 Olds. Easy to talk about living within one’s means but where do you suggest I cut back? Have no kids? OK, but who’s going to pay your social security.
Americans exist with a normalcy bias. Everything is just peachy.
So do many in the western world.
Low interest rates are also a disincentive to save & incentive to borrow.
And we’re probably just getting started.