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Who’s Really Ahead in the Pennsylvania Senate Race?

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62 comments on Who’s Really Ahead in the Pennsylvania Senate Race?

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538 Pennsylvania Senate forecast October 30, 8:28 PM, Mish annotations

Which Polls are Influencing Pennsylvania 

538 Senate Polls October 30, 8:28 PM, Mish annotations

FiveThirtyEight claims to weight the newer polls. But if so, it appears barely noticeable. 

Four Recent Polls

  • Co-Efficient: Oz +3
  • Wick: Oz +2
  • YouGov: Fetterman +2 
  • Insider Advantage: Oz +3

The average is Oz +1.5

The average of the three most recent polls is Oz + 2.67

I fail to see how this can possibly translate to a 58% chance for Fetterman. 

It will be interesting to see what the next Trafalgar poll is but I bet it’s not Fetterman +2.

What’s the Problem Here?

  • 538 does not properly factor in momentum.
  • 538 does not properly factor in the debate, a disaster for Fetterman.

The biggest problem is models don’t think! They are trained in generalities as if the generalities are what matters this time. Such generalities failed a couple of elections in a row for reasons pollsters do not understand. 

The 538 model has an additional problem in its inability to see how the debate impacted the odds. It needs more polls to verify the obvious.

Of course, the problem with most humans is they think about the wrong things or believe what they want to believe. 

As more polls come in, 538 will likely get closer and closer. But if there were no new polls, the 538 Pennsylvania odds probably would remain as silly as they seem now.

Things can still change, in either direction, but the most likely direction is towards Republicans.

Good News For Republicans

Senator Chris Coons, Democrat from Delaware, told Fox News Sunday that Democrats are running on their record. 

That should seal it.

Joking aside, there is a lot at stake here. 

If Democrats were to magically retain the House and Senate, they would unleash an inferno of free money and energy inflation, perhaps topping what we saw in the 70s. 

This post originated at MishTalk.Com

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62 Comments
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LM2022
LM2022
3 years ago
Another factor not mentioned: the Supreme Court ruling on abortion. I don’t know a single woman (in my admittedly non-random sample) that isn’t absolutely furious about it.
Oz didn’t help himself by saying abortion should be between a woman, her doctor and local politicians.
I expect the possibility of a “pink wave” this year of red and blue women voting in candidates that support abortion rights.
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JRM
JRM
3 years ago
Reply to  LM2022
Stop believing the lying MSM!!!
The PINK Wave is a “HOAX” fabricated by the MSM and their Democat allies!!!!
They lying Penn MSM tried to say with a straight face that Fetterman won the debate, when even Democats admitted 80% of democats polled said Fetterman was an utter failure!!!
The Red Wave will swamp your BLUE/PINK Wave!!!
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LM2022
LM2022
3 years ago
Reply to  JRM
You seem troubled, comrade.
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phil
phil
3 years ago
Reply to  LM2022
Who ever came up with the idea of…..you know what? It strikes me as darn weird. Like, have you ever met anyone who wished he or she had been on the receiving snip snip. I just don’t get it.
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KidHorn
KidHorn
3 years ago
Reply to  LM2022
You need to meet some women who don’t have purple or green hair or have an assortment of pierced body parts.
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Nunya Bidness
Nunya Bidness
3 years ago
Reply to  LM2022
As much as it pains me, I have to agree. Oddly enough, they are all women well past their child-bearing years, yet they feel like I would if SCOTUS had ruled against the 2nd Amendment, and for the same reason. It’s not that they want to have an abortion- they hate the thought of the government having control. Ironically, focusing on the federal elections because of it misses the point entirely. The issue will now be determined at the State level, and that is where it is critical for Republicans to maintain their dominance for many reasons.
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Avery
Avery
3 years ago
Happy Halloween to Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania!!!
Warren Commission including single-bullet theory and Involved with 9-11 Patriot Act.
Whattaguy!!!
Hopefully will not be cold this winter.
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8dots
8dots
3 years ago
Presidents Biden & Obama are old salesmen. Old salesmen have fewer customers. They rarely get new customers, especially young ones.
Gen-Z don’t care about Biden and Obama !
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Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear
3 years ago
The NY Governor race is getting very exciting.
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8dots
8dots
3 years ago
US gov debt is $30.6T. The real rates are : 3% minus 9% inflation. $31T x (-)0.06 = (-)$1.8T. US gov debt deflate by $1,8T this year.
In Europe, the same.
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JeffD
JeffD
3 years ago
Republicans probably won’t raise spending as much, but they probably will cut taxes. Is that any better? At this point, the economy needs lower spending and higher taxes to beat down the debt. There is no other way to get out of inflation.
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MarkraD
MarkraD
3 years ago
Reply to  JeffD
Increasing taxes to the donor class is political suicide in the aftermath of Citizen’s United.
Money is free speech, the more you have, the louder you speak…. apparently there’s no such thing as bribery.
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worleyeoe
worleyeoe
3 years ago
If Fetterman wins PA, America is doomed. There are lots of reasons not to like the cult of personality called Donald J Trump, but Fetterman is just an absolute a$$ wipe. He has absolutely zero upside. At least Trump was just fun to poke fun at. Fetterman is in a class all to himself when it comes to cringeworthy. If he wins, we might as well just Nuke PA.
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8dots
8dots
3 years ago
Obama is a fading old man, skidding on Bill Clinton trail. The different between them is that Ft Mishelle has the brains.
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MarkraD
MarkraD
3 years ago
Reply to  8dots
I definitely won’t vote for him!… Thanks for the heads up.
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oee
oee
3 years ago
You are the last person who should talking about anything; You have claimed that 1) Robots are taking over jobs-they are not 2) We will have a 3rd quarter of contraction-there is no such thing as “negative grown.” The econ grew at a respectable 2.6% in the quarter better than Trump and that was before the Covid 19 disaster & 3) the jobs numbers are fake-As St Ron Reagan used to say, “A job is the best social program,” They are not . They are real. The money is coming into the Treasury. 10 Million new jobs.
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Rbm
Rbm
3 years ago

Seems our problems are the worlds problems. Yesterday day had a conservation with a lady from Ireland.
Inflation/ insane housing prices / cant get people to work.
Im less afraid of a few more years of dem control than i am of the far right consolidating power.
Not to much jabber about Nancy’s husband.

In the big picture attacks like this /harassing politicians and judges the capital riot etc. are not good. The result will be politicians will hide behind security details isolating themself from the voters. Making them more out of touch.
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KidHorn
KidHorn
3 years ago
Reply to  Rbm
The guy who attacked Pelosi is far left. Not far right like the MSM claimed. He has a BLM flag in his yard.
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GruesomeHarvest
GruesomeHarvest
3 years ago

The fact that this is even close is a great indictment of the intelligence of your average voter and of democracy in general.

Some relevant H. L. Mencken quotes

Democracy is a pathetic belief in the collective wisdom of individual ignorance.

Democracy is also a form of worship. It is the worship of jackals by jackasses.

Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.

Gruesome’ dictum

Democracy always degenerates to a kakistocracy

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8dots
8dots
3 years ago
The Steelers fan are mad, Fetterman will pay the price !
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Thetenyear
Thetenyear
3 years ago
I’m starting to think that Mish’s lousy candidate theory is for the wrong party
Looks to me like the dems are putting up the horrible candidates: Arizona’s Katie Hobbs is afraid of her own shadow; Georgia’s Stacey Abrams keeps tripping over her own message; Liz Cheney got destroyed in Wyoming; and Fetterman is making Biden look like a great orator.
It’s early, but it looks like republicans will have their biggest house majority since the Great Depression. But, will they get stuff done?
BTW, 538 is far off the mark because they are terrible pollsters. They have been dead wrong after nailing it one time. They will cement their one hit wonder status on 8 November. Time to ditch 538 for an accurate pollster.
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John k
John k
3 years ago
Reps mostly don’t mind saying they’re for oz.
Dems might be reluctant to say they’re for oz until they’re in the voting booth.
Plus there seems to be multiple big mo issues for oz…. General move to reps, the stroke/debate issue, etc.
And it’s easy to oversample in big cities.
Imo nothing is going joes way, he looks like a loser with his own mental issues. And Kamala on deck? Maybe dems stay home.
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Mish
Mish
3 years ago
My two biggest peeves
1. People stating what I believe and getting it ridiculously wrong.
2. People misquoting me, saying I said something that I didn’t
Either is likely to get you banned immediately
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Corvinus
Corvinus
3 years ago
Reply to  Mish
And I quote:
“UFOs landed in Pennsylvania and said that you need to vote for Spirow Agnew for president this election – I totally support this and George Soros’ plan to introduce a foreign substance into our bodily fluids.” -Mike Shedlock
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CRZYHUN
CRZYHUN
3 years ago
Let’s be precise. Pitts on left, philly on the right, h-burg in the middle and a vast deplorable in the middle -mostly. These three will run the election fraud. Sorry but nixon won in 60 but Dallas and chi-town had bags full of votes. This will happen again no matter what the committee of 70 do.
Guess 85% all those ballots are dem.
Flubberman will win.
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Thetenyear
Thetenyear
3 years ago
Reply to  CRZYHUN
Yes Pittsburg on one side, Philly on the other and Alabama every where in between.
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Doug78
Doug78
3 years ago
What is wrong for a senator not being able to articulate his thoughts? We have a vice-president and president who can’t articulate theirs so by example the necessity of clear thinking for elected officials is not required and even a handicap.
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Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
“…what we saw in the 70s.”
Isn’t that when we all got sex and drugs and rock-and-roll?
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MarkraD
MarkraD
3 years ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker
And now I’m considering a new marketing/demographics strategy.
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RonJ
RonJ
3 years ago
Reply to  MarkraD
“Safe and effective” is taken, already.
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Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  RonJ
As is “Guaranteed or you money back.”
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Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
3 years ago
The only important question is whether the winning side has what it takes to get the US on an upward trajectory, and keep it there long enough to make a difference. As I see it, no one has any idea how to reduce the national debt, compete with China, reduce the US’ policing role, improve education to #1 in the world, etc. At least in the early 1980s, Newt Gingrich had the Contract with America. Now we have NADA!
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Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
We will get an upward and exponential trajectory in the quantity of US dollars.
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MarkraD
MarkraD
3 years ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
Tax billionaire’s at least the same rate the rest of us pay, stop giving tax benefits to corporations that use it to buy their own stocks as a way to boost C-suite bonuses, increasing revenues reduces debt, at least for my own business it does.
Look for other countries with lower waged workers than China, that’s not hard to find, but also, let’s stop being afraid of factory automation & robots doing menial tasks…. I always use the scan kiosk vs cashier at the grocery, it’s just faster.
We’ve been policing oil rich third world nations for decades, maybe reducing our dependency on oil is a better strategy, granted, not very beneficial to the Koch Brothers, XOM or BP earnings, real bad for political campaign coffers. But yes, a bird died flying into a wind turbine, therefore green energy or EV’s is a scam. The oil lobby would never lie, nor would the tobacco lobby….got a smoke?
1980 is exactly when our current debt to GDP started exploding, when household and government debt began to soar, and, when the Fed started reducing rates to make it all affordable to service.
Maybe 40 years hasn’t been enough time to show “trickle down” works, or maybe we haven’t cut high net worth campaign donor’s taxes enough for IRS revenues to benefit, maybe that’s it.
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TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 years ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
I suspect that only reducing the national debt and improving education are really on either parties minds since that’s on voters minds.
Neither party cares to reduce the US policing role and if anything both parties like playing that role esp since most voter don’t care.
Not sure either party cares about competing with China either. The high intensity labor jobs done there aren’t ever coming back here and will continue to move to even poorer countries once China can’t compete. It’s only high tech / high paying jobs that the US (both parties) really wants or cares about.
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StukiMoi
StukiMoi
3 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
“It’s only high tech / high paying jobs that the US (both parties) really wants or cares about.”
There exists no lower tech, lower skills, lower value-add “jobs” than politician, used-shack saleswoman, lottery-number-picking-“investor,” gold-digger, wall-mold-workingcrew-manager, and ambulance chaser.
Yet those are the only “jobs” which by now pay well.
None of these illiterates are within a million miles of even being able to have the vaguest opinion about anything high-tech, nor high-anything requiring a brain.
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StukiMoi
StukiMoi
3 years ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
“The only important question is whether the winning side has what it takes to get the US on an upward trajectory”
It doesn’t. No matter which supposed “side” ends up winning.
To get the US on an upward trajectory, would require the political class no longer robbing the productive classes. To get the US there reasonably fast; would require the political class to relinquish a good chunk of the loot which is already stolen and handed to them. Fat chance of that coming from any political “side” vastly too stupid and incompetent to have any other means of earning and retaining any of their current privileges.
No “upward trajectory” will ever come from robbing people capable of doing something useful; for no other reason than to allow complete idiots to persist in pretending the mold in their decaying home’s walls are somehow creating any wealth. Nor from robbing competent people by debasement, in order to allow the same idiots to persist in the childish delusion than they are somehow creating wealth by picking lottery numbers; just becasue some clown even dumber than they are, insists, on TeeVee even, that doing so means they are engaged in some great, mystical ritual he calls “investing.”
Clueless dimwits being handed control of all capital just so they can feel “smart” and important by then summarily misallocating it, only ever results in further decay. Not ever in anything meaningfully “upwards.”
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KidHorn
KidHorn
3 years ago
I trust realclearpolitics the most. They adjust based on past results and were very accurate in 2020.
If the dems end up controlling the house, there might be a real insurrection.
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MarkraD
MarkraD
3 years ago
Reply to  KidHorn
Realclear has Fetterman up the same amount as 538.
“If the dems end up controlling the house, there might be a real insurrection.”
One major deterrent though, when the “Qanon Shaman” complained that jailers won’t make his food the way his mom does and he isn’t allowed to wear his funny horn helmet, this alone could completely shut down any insurrection thoughts from the armchair warrior crowd.
It’ll be interesting to see if the sentences get bigger than J6’s have been….the guy that beat up a cop got over 7 years this week and “Trump told me to do it” didn’t work with that corrupt judge, geesh..
Trump will pardon him using the Constitution’s residual executive powers, I’m sure of it.
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KidHorn
KidHorn
3 years ago
Reply to  MarkraD
They project Oz winning PA.
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MarkraD
MarkraD
3 years ago
Reply to  KidHorn
Maybe it’s dated, dunno.
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KidHorn
KidHorn
3 years ago
Reply to  MarkraD
You need to look at the projections. They take into account how far off the polls have been historically.
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MarkraD
MarkraD
3 years ago
Reply to  KidHorn
Ahh, gotchya, to me that seems to leave a potentially wider margin of error, assuming forward action based on past events.
Like assuming market declines of the past will be mirrored now, without factoring all components, sectors, supply, demand, the Fed…etc.
I’m sure those individual polls seek to correct past mistakes or sources.
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threeblindmice
threeblindmice
3 years ago
Post-debate polls are clear. Don’t blame the model. It’s usually better to have a weighting, and admit its shortcomings than do ad hoc adjustments that are subject to personal bias. Silver’s employees are very left. Silver himself is a little left. Net, you are right about the state of this race.
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MarkraD
MarkraD
3 years ago
“538 does not properly factor in momentum.”
“538 does not properly factor in the debate, a disaster for Fetterman.”
Both are wide open to interpretation via countless forms of bias, 538 would have to count opinions over empirical fact.
Or, as you put it –
“Of course, the problem with most humans is they think about the wrong things or believe what they want to believe. “
This is true on ALL counts to a more or lesser degree, liberals, conservatives, mine and, yours.
To Dems, Fetterman’s performance was a relief, in conversations I’ve been told “He was much better than conservatives said he’d be”
To Republican’s, I’ve heard “I can’t believe how bad he screwed up on his fracking statement”
Nate Silver is notoriously mathematical, his whole schtick is to avoid bias.
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Ham Saplo
Ham Saplo
3 years ago
I used to think 538 were a bunch of smart guys for being so complicated and mathematical. They are really just a bullhorn for the Dems. Every day I get calls and texts from pollsters and I ignore them and let Dem voters answer their calls. I don’t think I am alone in that.
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Thetenyear
Thetenyear
3 years ago
Reply to  Ham Saplo
Agree. They are owned by ABC, who is owned by Disney who is owned by the democrat party.
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TheCaptain
TheCaptain
3 years ago
“If Democrats were to magically retain the House and Senate, they would unleash an inferno of free money and energy inflation, perhaps topping what we saw in the 70s.”
It does not matter who wins. Whoever wins will have to unleash said inferno of new money, far outstipping the 70s OR the Global Debt Ponzi (GDP) will collapse. You cannot just change leaders and have a Global Debt Ponzi that has been growing for 50-60 years now suddenly not be a Global Debt Ponzi. Every Ponzi needs an energy source and the energy source of a Debt Ponzi is debt. In a debt based fake money system, new debt is synonymous with new money. Ponzis never end with a soft landing and no, it won’t be different this time. And since the people have no idea how the money supply works, whoever is in charge when the Global Debt Ponzi collapses will get blamed for it.
Because of these facts, nobody is going to end the Global Debt Ponzi on purpose. It will have to collapse as a result of spontaneous awakening by Mark and Pasty, in other words, the fools who accept this fake money as if it were real.
But until then, the debt must not only continue to grow, but to do so at an exponential pace because if it even begins to slow down in a significant way, those who understand how this con game works are going to run for the exits. And they will make it to the exits quickly because they know that those who get out first get to keep their ill begotten winnings and that those who take just a few days too long to exit will get stuck with all the losses.
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bayleaf
bayleaf
3 years ago
Reply to  TheCaptain
“Ponzis never end with a soft landing…”
Seems that dealing with the inflation ala Volcker is what’s on the table right now, irrespective of what all the gold bugs are saying.
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Dutoit
Dutoit
3 years ago
Why Democrats seem to present disabled candidates, as well as for presidency ? Anyway, after considering our own ministers here in France, it seems we have also mentally disabled people, except that they are no so excplicitely disabled.
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HippyDippy
HippyDippy
3 years ago
Reply to  Dutoit
Democrats have dangled the disabled in front of the voters my entire life and I’m 62. They love to give the appearance of caring, though they don’t care anymore about the voters than anyone else.
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TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 years ago
Off topic, but surprised Mish hasn’t posted about this yet.
His favorite whipping boy state getting deeper into the Red with pension issues.
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MPO45
MPO45
3 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
Because it’s a non-issue. When the GDP chart starts going the other way, it will become an issue.
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TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 years ago
Reply to  MPO45
If tax payers don’t vote ‘no’ now, it will be too late by the time it becomes an issue in a few years time.
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MPO45
MPO45
3 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
Wasn’t there a post here not days ago about 90 trillion not being paid back but you are concerned about a few hundred billion in Illinois? It’s like worrying about a puddle while an ocean tidal wave is heading right toward the shore. Illinois, for now, is home to 28 F500 companies, and as long as that holds they will be fine.
here are the states that matter, the rest are noise.
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TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 years ago
Reply to  MPO45
As a resident of another State, I just want to make sure I’m not on the hook for Illinois. I honestly don’t care what happens there as long as there is no federal bailout which puts me on the hook.
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MarkraD
MarkraD
3 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
If you’re going to play that card, Kentucky has the highest debt to GDP of all the states by a wide margin.
The 11 lowest per capita GDP states are conservative. (think tax revenues, and how it could be a talking point when conservatives rumble over social entitlements)
“My state’s better than your state” isn’t the way to sway opinion, MPO45 makes a reasonable point that we all have a much bigger problem, and that problem includes your state, as well as KY, and CA.
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MIFE
MIFE
3 years ago
MISH – could it be because of advanced voting?
Just a thought – no idea how many have already voted prior to the “debate” – Canuck with no note in any of this, so it is just entertainment value for me.
“Vote early and vote often” 😉
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MPO45
MPO45
3 years ago
Today is end of October and somewhere across America 200,000 baby boomers retired and won’t be contributing much to society other than through consumption. So what’s happening in Pennsylvania?
“Many farm owners want the U.S. Senate to pass the Farm Workforce Modernization Act that passed the House twice, including with support from 40 Republicans. They have been working with Sens. Mike Crapo, R-Idaho, and Michael Bennet, D-Colo., and feel the window is closing to get it passed.”
Doesn’t matter who wins, Americans will be the real losers as nothing gets done and food cost, along with everything else, soars due to lack of labor.
“One side is demagoguing on the issue, and one is in denial,” said Rebecca Shi, executive director of the American Business Immigration Coalition Action. “Democrats are sticking their heads in the sand as if there’s no problem, and Republicans are engaging in political theater.”
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Too much BS
Too much BS
3 years ago
If Democrats were to magically retain the House and Senate, they would unleash an inferno of free
Did you say FREE MONEY. Where do you want my X ?
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TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 years ago
Reply to  Too much BS
You’ll note Mish didn’t say FREE MONEY TO ALL.
Instead it will be free money to select groups, the usual suspects for the Democrats. If you are one of those select groups you are already voting Democrat anyway but for everyone else it will be a disaster as they don’t get free money and have to deal with rampant inflation that eats up what they do have.
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