It’s the economy stupid, plus betting markets, Republican infighting, and momentum.
Betting Markets
The above map is the Kalshi Senate Prediction Map based on current bets.
The breakdown math is important.
Senate Seats in Play
To win the Senate, Democrats need to win four of six while not losing anything elsewhere.
Note: I made that screen shot composite earlier. As I type AK-Sullivan is 57%, To-Be-Determined is 63% vs Sue Collins, Paxton is 56%.
Importantly, Joni Ernst keeps wavering between 56 and 57 percent. Trump’s far policies have been a disaster.
Momentum and Discussion
- Maine: A week ago Maine was doubtful. However, amidst infidelity and other charges Maine Democratic Senate candidate Graham Platner officially pulled out of race. The odds of Main flipping went from 50 percent to 62 percent. Trump has also stated he wants Collins gone. Give Trump his wish. Collins will be gone, replaced by a Democrat.
- North Carolina: Senator Thom Tillis dropped out after bickering with Trump. He had enough. Give Trump his wish. Tillis will be gone, replaced by a Democrat.
- Georgia: Jon Ossoff was elected to the Senate in 2020 against Trump’s hand-picked candidate. Thank Trump for that. Ossoff will easily win reelection.
- Michigan: Gary Peters has a 69 percent chance of winning by the betting markets. The media calls it a tossup. Go with Kalshi.
- Alaska: Kalshi has had Alaska in the Democrat column for months. But this is one whose momentum is headed the wrong direction for Democrats. There’s an unusual controversy in which there are not one but two Republicans running, both named Dan Sullivan. And in Alaska ranked voting will decide. I have no reason to not go with the betting markets with all this confusion.
- Texas: Incumbent John Cornyn lost his primary after Trump backed an extremely corrupt Ken Paxton who is also in a nasty divorce battle on biblical grounds. Give Trump his wish. Cornyn is out. But Texas is very much in play. On Kalshi, betting markets are at 57 percent for Paxton. But that’s down from 62 percent a month ago. I have this race now at 50-50, not today but at election time. If there is huge Hispanic turnout overall, and Democrats heavily participate in the cities this is a very close race.
- Ohio: Kalshi has had Ohio in the Blue column most of the year. Based on my assessment of the economy, I think it will stay there.
- Iowa: Iowa has been on my radar all year mainly because of Trump’s tariffs and retaliations have clobbered farmers. Joni Ernst would have been an easy shoo-in. But as with Tillis, she got tired of bickering with Trump. Trump gets his wish, and Iowa, like Texas is now in play.
Trump Current and Historical Senate Results
- Tillis gone to be replaced by a Democrat
- Ernst gone, perhaps replaced by a Democrat
- Cornyn gone perhaps replaced by a Democrat
- Collins likely replaced by a Democrat
- Ossoff elected in Georgia beating Trump’s hand-picked candidate
- Warnock elected in Georgia over Trump’s inane Hershel Walker pick
- Fetterman elected in Pennsylvania over Trump’s inane pick Dr. Mehmet Oz, a smooth-talking and wealthy heart surgeon-turned-TV celebrity.
- In Arizona, Trump-backed Kari Lake lost to Democrat Ruben Gallego.
Trump demands loyalty more than he wants to win an election.
Republicans could easily have two more Senate seats in Georgia, one more in Pennsylvania, and at least one more in Arizona, with better picks. That would have given them a 57-43 majority instead of 53-47.
It’s possible Trump’s 100% loyalty demands coupled with terrible economic policies and warmongering costs Republicans another six seats. Yes, six Senate seats.
And don’t be shocked if it happens.
Base Case
My base case is that it will be very hard for Republicans to hold the carnage to only two Senate seats. And two seats plus the House would constitute a “Blue Wave” on Polymarket.
If I am correct about the momentum of the economy, and the propensity of Trump to do stupid things, Democrats will pick up another two somewhere.
It’s the economy stupid, plus betting markets, Republican infighting, momentum, and a very unpopular war that’s too late to salvage.
Factor in a monumental collapse of Republican support by independents, Hispanics, and young voters. Expect infighting to lower Republican turnout.
On that overall basis, I think it’s odds-on (but not by a huge percentage, say 55%) that Democrats win the Senate. This can change a lot by election, but it’s my assessment of the current direction.
I would not at all be surprised if Republicans get blasted out of six senate seats.
Polymarket has the odds republicans hold at 54%. But note that a loss of three seats would constitute a bloodbath, yet a hold.
So, expect a Republican bloodbath even if Republicans hang on to the Senate.
Oh, one more thing: Thank Trump.
Trump’s grandiose executive power theory, made absurd by his erratic personality, yet endorsed by SCOTUS, screams for some balancing. I’m sad that it will be as bitter and weird as it will, and that today’s Dems are the only alternative. But all the same.
democracy works perfectly. modern amerikans are exactly like trump and biden and schumer and miss lindsay in the box………
“and miss lindsay in the box……”
Closet. The word you are looking for is “closet”.
i hope that you are right, but I never put it past Democrats to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Republicans broke so many promises in terms of America First, cutting spending, punishing Swamp corruption, and even explicitly outlawing CBDC…They’ve lied so much and so repeatedly. How do you proceed? Run on “We’ve lied to you a lot, but we mean it this time.”
“I’ll release all the Epstein files” turned into “what Epstein files? There are no Epstein files. Who’s Epstein? Never heard of him.” No new wars turned into the current shit show. What they did to Massie is reason enough for the GOP to lose.
Trump is obsessed with making the old rich and his tech bros happy. He completely backtracked and is selling f32s to Turkey. An explicit slap in the face to Israel. He did this because the Turks flatter him.
Trump stabbed RFK Jr. in the back and made Round Up chemicals a critical need for agriculture. What a joke. Tulsi Gabbard left-mostly because her hubby is sick but also because Trump started the ultimate regime change war.
If you flatter Trump, support his face on Mt. Rushmore and give him airplanes you can get ANYTHING from that guy. He is so patently shallow and not confident.
It;s a good thing for Trump, once again, that his core adherents are so cognitively damaged. He doesn’t even have to gaslight them, because they can’t remember yesterday’s lies.
I am sad for the hardworking actual conservatives left with little other choice. Our menu is very weird.
Many years ago there was a Subway sandwiches commercial that featured a politician that said “Government has been lying to you for too long. If elected, I promise to reduce those lies by 34%”. I have looked high and low for that commercial and haven’t found success – not even on YouTube.
the biggest liar in the world makes another promise he won’t keep…
…The Hormuz Strait is OPEN, and will remain OPEN, with or without Iran. We are reinstating the THE IRANIAN BLOCKADE, so named because it is only stopping Iran’s ships or customers from entering or leaving. All other countries will have fair and open use of the Strait. The U.S.A. will be, from this point forward, known as “THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT,” but as such, and as a matter of FAIRNESS, will be reimbursed, at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped, for any and all costs necessary to do the job of providing safety and security to this very volatile section of the World. The process and formation will begin immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP
Lol. The clown now wants to run a protection racket? What a moron.
Here’s why it doesn’t matter. They are both the same and do not represent their constituents.
To a very large extent you are right. Mainly different set of snouts in the trough. But it matters occasionally around the edges. And sometimes even more than around the edges: Without Nov’24, how many more millions of illegal aliens would have invaded? 50 million by now? All alien to the culture that made the US a place they’d want to come to.
Not a whole lot. Biden failed on the border, no doubt, and was much too late to act, but let’s not forget that the republicans in the house blocked efforts to protect the border so as not to hurt Trumps election chances. Had Trump not won than the border would have been closed by both parties, as the democrats belatedly saw the electoral vulnerability.
only difference between red and blue team is abortion rights. all the rest is impossible to distinguish any actual distance.
I think Ken Paxton will win. His new mistress is much better looking than his old one.
Definitely a hit with the Evangelicals!
Yeah, for people that claim to have such a rise for “traditional values” they sure go for women that look like hookers.
And for men that cheat on their wives. Nothing more hypocritical than an evangelical Christian .
those dudes have nothing on the roman catholic priests. glad i escaped that cult i was raised in when i was a teenager.
Trump just announced he is re-instating the Naval Blockade of the Persian Gulf. Looks likely the Houthis will close the Bab-el-Mandab strait.
Trump is showing increasing desperation. He is making crazy statements like the new Ayatollah is 90% dead, and that the US will take over the Hormuz Strait and charge a fee for managing it.
Trump now stating that the fee he will charge for managing the Strait of Hormuz will be 20% of the value of cargo transiting the strait
ha ha ha. and he’ll be playing in the world cup championship game too.
He is literally insane. His cabinet should remove him. Won’t happen. He deserves a “decapitation strike”.
Whether repubs or dems win the big losers will be everyday Americans. The only vote that really counts is the one with your feet to somewhere far away from clowns and goons.
Do worry, Trump, Walrus & GOP will find a way to make things even worse.™
do me a favor. list top 10 locations on planet. no order. keep your destination private as you seem to want. thanks in advance. i like japan, new zealand, portugal, australia, spain and italy and mexico and panama. not in order of my preferences. i could be content any of them. i also like certain parts of usa where the anti imperial philosophy is strong.
i like vancouver canada, too. and i enjoyed russia in the 1990s. never been but i’m sure i could live in thailand and viet nam or argentina or uruguay or chile. i loved cayman islands too. france and italy nice too. so many wonderful spots on planet. i currently live in hudson valley. great place. wonderful people. too bad they all vote for imperial warfare……
How about six? The answer to what you’re after has too many variables. non wealthy people have it far easier than wealthier people because of taxes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPBc9UZr2R4
only the little people pay taxes. so many great businesses to legally avoid the need of paying federal taxes.
Don’t forget Brazil!
never been. but immediate family members i respect just love it down there. i am sure i could live there no problem.
Mish,
One correction. Gary Peters in Michigan is not seeking reelection. The democrat primary candidates are Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens. However that doesn’t change the likely result.
The only reason the D’s win is that the leadership of the UNI-PARTY are getting tired of Bashing Trump… by design.
Mish, please try to frame your articles in such a way that stops inferring that there are “debates” or “Arguments” made by the two parties’ talking heads…because (why??):
POLITICS IN AMERICA ARE BY DESIGN and THEY ARE IN LOCK-STEP BY AGREEMENTS made along the way.
The Mitch’s, Pelosi’s, Johnsons, Chucks, etc. RUN THE SHOW like a scripted Chicken Fight.
The only difference is that no one is allowed to have a COCK.
Rooster Head Trey Goudy in SC was a perfect example of a scripted imbecile.
that idiot is hard to look at. glad i never bumped into him on a dark street when i lived in charleston for the 1990s. i would have run for my life.
I live in Houston, and Latins are pretty damn pissed about this most recent ICE shooting. Expect them to go hard against Republicans.
That is only MAINSTREAM-PRESS-think…remember, everything is framed according to the UNI-PARTY RULES set forth by carefully (not so much anymore, however) calculated KEY WORDS approved by the MASTERS (Johnson, Chuck, Nancy, Mitch, etc)…
What the fuck is the UNI-PARTY? My nutjob brother in law keeps talking about that and it makes me think that that particular phrase/wording is something being pushed on nutjob sites.
i means on your life you couldn’t tell the difference in policies for the past 50 years of who controls whitehouse and congress. nobody could.
I think it’s the new buzzword for the conspiracy minded (which are usually some form of Republicans).
And it’s great. Because what it actually does, at least to my brother in law, is give him a talking point that “shows” he’s not just a Trumper (yet he is), and is above it all, but, yet, he will still vote for the same old Republicans he’s always voted for.
VOTE OUT ALL INCUMBANTS! Regardless of Party. Time for the young to take over and take this country wherever they choose to take it. The current old guys are the ones that have got us into the messes we are currently in.
i agree with the younger folks and not incumbents. sounds like your bro in law is something different. all my maga pals are morons so i just mock them to their faces. most don’t mind. some are thin skinned old boomers. i am a boomer. the softest humans on planet earth.
Yes, my Bro in Law is a boomer, but, I think it’s such a shame because he is a great guy that would give you the shirt off his back, but, has lived a life of fear of the “other” all his life and that is why he gravitated towards Trump. Although I fully recognize that racism is not the draw for all Trumpers, it seems to be a big draw for a lot of them, as he has made it “ok”.
heard a guy on cspan this am who sounded like most idiots i know who are boomers in nyc area. the guy said everytime he goes to a store he feels like he is being invaded by immigrants. it’s laughable. morons. like monkeys. of course many of them are decent humans when interacting with their own kind. anthropology 101
Immigration remains a petard the Dems can be hoisted on. Biden allowed scenes that will be endlessly replayed. The messaging and the optics there were a key mistake.
Yep. That was a big mistake by Biden, and really, I’ll never understand why he did it, and why the party didn’t push back on him. “Regular” asylum system should be fine, and all that did was ruin any possible overall immigration “reform” for a long time.
Organized guest worker program anyone? That can be turned on and off as needed?
There is little practical difference between Team R And Team D. Not only that, but they need each other, the way sports rivels need each other or there is no game, the way you can make a perfectly bankable Batman movie without Robin, but take away The Joker and Batman goes from “The Dark Knight” to a rich weirdo with a most unseemly thing for cosplay.
Not only that, but dividing the Uniparty into two teams is useful, in keeping factions united and in dividing the spoils, in explaining tot he rubes why we don’t have nirvana already.
Only a bunch of kooks read zero hedge with a straight face.
i don’t read much amerikan media with a straight face. from Zerohedge to Mish to CNN………anyone who votes themselves is telling you everything you need to know. plenty of libertarian or green party candidates over the decades to vote for.
Dan Quayle can be the translator.
Quayle was no Jack Kennedy. But Trump, for me, is the love child of Jack Kennedy (TV actor) and Richard Nixon (Machiavellian), minus a lot of the intelligence of either. At this point, perish the thought, I might even accept a Dan Quayle or a Mike Pence or Gerald Ford (Midwestern doofus), in lieu of that.
Have you considered adding Fetterman into the Republican column. He will be forced out of the Dem Party for fear of what his Negativity will cause. He may even take 1 other with him, I don’t count that out at all. Some Dems have already grown tired of the latest antics…
It would thus take that number 5 to take the Senate. You are looking at 6 and the odds are looking at 4, so the Republicans would be closer to a hold under this scenario, based upon these predictions.
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”― H.L. Mencken, On Politics: A Carnival of Buncombe
Genuine democracy, at least, might spread the unavoidable greed of all players thin enough on the ground, that while they all squabble about everything, we might be able to evade it a reasonably survivable amount of the time.
In terms of federal policies, Democrats can win without much change to the status quo. As long as Democrats don’t hold 60 seats in the Senate, which is an impossibility, Trump can continue with his madness.
impeachment conviction only requires supermajority of senators PRESENT. many might just not attend that coming vote. more likely, repugs will use 25th amendment after jan 20th 2027 so JD is potus and can run for 2 more terms. 10 year limit.
JD has the charisma of dryer lint. He would not win a fair election.
Even we paleocons don’t trust him. Peter Thiel creation. Waaaayyy too tolerant of American worldwide troublemaking. He’s lost both of us.
I couldn’t eat with that nebbish’s picture present. His “personality” is such a flatulent confabulation, it literally nauseates me.
Trumps Approval has been climbing. He is 1 1/2 points up in the last 30 days. That’s pretty significant during the times we are in.
If things keep heading in the direction they are, I suspect we will see that climb another 3%-4% by the end of July!
Of course it is up! He signed the MOU to stop the war! A huuuge achievement. As long as the MOU and ceasefire are in place, his ratings have a chance of going up!
Oops!
Not for that, and not now for sure. Maybe the first 3 or 4 times he said he stopped something. People are tired of hearing that now.
He also said they were helpless pretty much, but yet they continue to attack us and others at will…
With what pollster? He’s gone nowhere but down overall this year with every single pollster on RCP.
Down but up… Donald Trump’s net approval rating has increased to -17, up from -25 just a week prior, indicating a notable gain in approval among U.S. adults. This change reflects a slight rebound in his popularity, although he still remains unpopular overall.
This will continue, as we get closer and closer. The Dems true colors are showing, and it’s Communism they seek in numbers. Americans overall don’t want that BS.
The GOP is too attached to its team winning no matter what (as are Dems). They will not defect like that, for reasons of “conscience,” or whatever.
As long as the stock market remains at near record levels, incumbents are more likely to stay in office.
George Carlin on voting:
I don’t vote. Fuck ’em. FUCK THEM. I don’t vote.
Two reasons. Two reasons I don’t vote: first of all, it’s meaningless. This country was bought and sold and paid for a long time ago. The shit they shuffle around every four years doesn’t mean a fuckin’ thing. And secondly, I don’t vote ’cause I believe if you vote, you have no right to complain. People like to twist that around. I know, they say, they say: “well if you don’t vote you have no right to complain”. But where’s the logic in that? If you vote, and you elect dishonest, incompetent people, and they get into office and screw everything up, well you are responsible for what they have done, YOU caused the problem, you voted them in, you have no right to complain. I on the other hand, who did not vote, WHO DID NOT VOTE. Who in fact did not even leave the house on election-day, am in no way responsible for what these people have done, and have every RIGHT to complain as loud as I want, about the mess YOU created, that I had nothing to do with. So I know that a little later on this year, you’re going to have another one of those really swell presidential elections that you like so much. You enjoy yourselves. It will be a lot of fun. I’m sure as soon as the election is over, your country will “improve” immediately.
I vote for myself
I am proud of my vote
LOL
Last time I voted for anybody, it was for Ross Perot.
IMHO, love him or hate him, it’s been down hill since Reagan. I don’t vote for people anymore, I only vote no on anything that will raise taxes, I don’t care if it’s to feed hungry children. My property taxes and everything else just keeps going up anyway.
Voting = Suggestion box for slaves.
My basic definition of conservatism: if you feed the pigeons, you just get more of them. Then when that feed slows down, they start eating each other, or you.
Iowa was allegedly going to Kamala per the Des Moines Register and it wasn’t even in the margin of error…and they got scolded for that. And yet here we are again. I’ll take 5:1 on Iowa staying red. Goodness, outside of the college areas and pockets of Des Moines it’s far pinker than the map shows.
In fact polymarket shows 56-44 so I guess i gotta find a way to go place a bet cuz that’s a good price for what I believe to be underpricing the R side of the ledger there in Iowa, bad policies and other squabbling mentioned aside. We’ll call that intentional noise.
People fail to understand the sway of right-wing Christianity over Republican politics. People can be very uncomfortable with Trump, war, ICE-killings, etc… but those things are no match for people who would allow women the liberty to choose to have an abortion, or people having the liberty to transition to another sex. Heck, gay marriage certainly outweighs high gas prices.
I’m all for people transitioning to another sex the minute they turn 18. This year I would even tolerate those who would allow castration of minors over a Zionist, though.
“The castration of minors” isn’t a thing though.
If it is on social media, it is a “thing.” Read The Image: A Guide to Pseudo-Events in America
by Daniel J. Boorstin, or World Builders by Macaes or Mapmakers by Luberisse.
I’m still surprised he has as u support as he does. Bad look for America
He did not fall from outer space. He as product and reflection of a huge segment of the US population. He is the disease that arises when the entire political system is corrupt.
The time for alarm was back when politicians started the War on drugs, the Crime Bill, the Patriot Act, Guantanamo, the normalization of torture, the warrantless spying, the broad usage of civil asset forfeiture, the invasion of Iraq under false pretenses and without a formal declaration of war from Congress, the Wall Street bail outs and the impunity due to “too big to fail/too big to jail”, the prosecution of whistle blowers on warrantless spying and war crimes, the passing of the “Hague Invasion Act” to protect American war criminals…
Someone like Donald Trump is just where this road ultimately leads to.
And if you’re looking for the guilty you need only to look in a mirror.
H.L. Mencken and Carlin agree.
He has less support than the polls show. The ziomedia is only promoting polls that optimize his support. Robert Barnes and Rich Baris (pollster) have explained the duplicitous methodology and Susie Wiles has threatened a loss of business for pollsters who don’t play along. Remember that the money in polling is doing “internals”.
https://x.com/Peoples_Pundit/status/2076662558623150283?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Depending on who gets picked to succeed Israel’s favorite senator, South Carolina could also possibly be a close race. The state has been filling up with liberal state move-ins for years and Lindsay’s primary competition was completely inept. They will be running against a respected doctor from the low state.
Trump will find a long list of sycophants willing to be appointed Senator. I even imagined the Governor there appointing himself and then resigning. He’s term-limited.
They still need to win an election.
Have you noticed federal election law in he last year or two? SCOTUS has signed off on plenty of disenfranchisement. i suspect there is a race to implement it.
They say Bessent wants the job. The jokes write themselves.