The Next CPI and PCE reports are July 14 and 30 respectively. What’s ahead?
The CPI and PCE projections are from the Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast.
Year-Over-Year Nowcast June
- CPI: 3.92 percent
- Core CPI: 2.85 percent
- PCE: 3.88 percent
- Core PCE:3.43 percent
Year-Over-Year Nowcast July
- CPI: 3.71 percent
- Core CPI: 2.81 percent
- PCE: 3.84 percent
- Core PCE:3.47 percent
These are uninspiring numbers to say the least.
Notable, core PCE forecasts are still rising, and that’s the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.
Core measures exclude food and energy.
CPI and PCE Month-Over-Month Percent Change Plus Nowcast
Month-Over-Month Nowcast June
- CPI: -0.06 percent
- Core CPI: 0.23 percent
- PCE: 0.10 percent
- Core PCE: 0.28 percent
Month-Over-Month Nowcast July
- CPI: 0.00 percent
- Core CPI: 0.23 percent
- PCE: 0.11 percent
- Core PCE: 0.28 percent
Core Projections Problematic
- 0.23% monthly annualizes to roughly 2.80% per year.
- 0.28% monthly annualizes to roughly 3.41% per year.
Those who like to exclude food and energy are now stuck in their own trap.
Energy rates to be a big drag on the month-over-month measures in June and July.
However, the core numbers the Fed likes to use, especially PCE remain stubbornly high.
Looking ahead to October, there is now 79 percent chance of at least one hike with a 33 percent chance of multiple hikes.
Iran Not Helping
Trump’s latest maneuver in Iran does not help at all.
West Texas Intermediate and Brent oil prices are up over three percent to $73.81 and $78.50 as I type.
The long bond yield is up slightly to 5.085 percent.
Iran understands the setup more than Trump.
I said at the outset of the war that Iran’s number one goal was to punish Trump as much as possible with no regard to the damage it would suffer doing so.
That has been an accurate assessment, and one that Trump fails to understand.
Yet, Trump boasts today about winning and still says the US controls the strait. This weekend, traffic came to a near standstill again.
We call this winning. … By Iran.
Hooray! We Have a New Stated Goal in Iran.
Please note Hooray! We Have a New Stated Goal in Iran. Guess the Goal.
Victory is now defined as starting a war to get back to where things were before we started the war.
Is that brilliant or what?
Please click above for details and discussion.
Oh Trump and his gullible cult.
https://www.barchart.com/futures/european/energies
Get ready for high fuel prices again suckers and losers.
Do worry, Trump, Walrus and the GOP will find a way to make things even worse.™
A lot of stations here in NJ are over 4 already.
Iran keeping the Strait closed and dwindling oil reserves will not help matters. The closing of Hormuz affects no only oil prices but also NLG, fertilizers and aluminum.
Trump’s greatest enemy is himself. I fear the day when we get a demagogue populist leader who is actually methodical, calculative and pragmatic.
Fearing “a day when we get a demagogue populist leader” – why wait. Trump is allready a demagogue populist leader – just without some of your niceties. Still, he’s calculative as he’s as transactional of behavior as it gets.
We’ve got enough to fear with Trump now. I’d suspect he doesn’t have somme of your niceties only b/e he’s ti stupid to use those traits.
Speakin gof why wait – we’ve never had this level of grifting and corruption in 250 years!!