As Democratic strategist James Carville explained in 1992: “It’s the economy, stupid.” Two new pictures tell the 2024 story.
Age Group Synopsis
- Overall: 4.1 up from 3.4
- 16-19: 12.3 up from 9.3
- 20-24: 7.9 up from 5.4
- 25-34: 4.1 up from 3.6
- 45-54: 2.5 up from 2.1
- 55+: 2.7 up from 2.3
The overall, 16-19, and 20-24 age group unemployment rates all bottomed in April of 2023.
Since then, the overall unemployment rate increased by 0.6 percentage points, age group 16-19 by 4.0 percentage points, and age group 20-24 by 2.5 percentage points.
Young voters have been hammered on a relative basis.
Unemployment Rate by Race
The unemployment rate of blacks has jumped from 4.8 percent to 6.1 percent while that of whites rose from 3.0 percent to 3.5 percent.
For Hispanics, the unemployment rate jumped from 4.1 percent to 5.0 percent.
I have been talking about the plight of young people and blacks since February. Mainstream media is just now catching on.
Economic Data Paint a Picture of Two Americas
The Wall Street Journal reports Economic Data Paint a Picture of Two Americas
The rich are feeling confident, but lower-income households are growing cautious.
A growing disconnect between the fortunes of upper- and lower-income Americans could account for some of the crossed signals.
In the latest shocker, the Labor Department reported on Friday that the U.S. added 272,000 jobs in May, up from 165,000 in April and much higher than economists’ expectations. The strong reading is especially perplexing because it comes on the heels of a string of weak economic reports in recent weeks, including soft income and spending data for the month of April and a lower-than-expected reading on manufacturing sentiment in May.
Flashback February 2024 MishTalk
Please consider/reconsider my February post: The Fed’s Big Problem, There Are Two Economies But Only One Interest Rate
On average, the economy looks OK. But averages are misleading. Several large groups of people are struggling. They all have one thing in common.
Those looking to buy a home but cannot afford the record high prices, are not faring well in this economy.
Q: Who is Unhappy?
A: Young voters and Blacks.
Flashback April 2024 MishTalk
Please consider/reconsider People Who Rent Will Decide the 2024 Presidential Election
A WSJ Swing State Poll show blacks, especially black males, are abandoning Biden in huge numbers.
In the swing states, 30 percent of black males now support Trump. That’s up from 12 percent in the 2020 election. Trump support from black females is up from 6 percent to 11 percent.
The numbers are not directly comparable because the 2020 numbers are national. However, the numbers flash a huge warning sign.
Q: What is it that young voters [and blacks] really have on their minds?
A: Rent
Flashback May 15, 2024 MishTalk
CPI data from the BLS, chart by Mish
Please consider/reconsider CPI Up 0.3 Percent With Rent Still Rising Steeply
Yet Another Groundhog Day for Rent
Rent of primary residence, the cost that best equates to the rent people pay, jumped another 0.4 percent in April. Rent of primary residence has gone up at least 0.4 percent for 32 consecutive months!
The “rents are falling” (or soon will) projections have been based on the price of new leases and cherry picked markets. But existing leases, much more important, keep rising.
I now expect (finally!) we will break the string of 32 consecutive months of rent rising 0.4 percent.
I even went out on a limb with my June 5 post I expect a Fed Rate Cut in July Despite Market View of 18.5 Percent Chance
At the risk of looking silly, I think the market is wrong about the odds of a Fed rate cut in July. Let’s discuss why.
My rationale was very weakening economic data coupled with the expectation of a huge slowdown in the the pace of rent inflation. The bizarro jobs report last Friday cut the July rate cut odds to 8.2 percent.
Even if my July rate cut call is correct (and for now I am sticking with that take) rents are not going back where they were four years ago. Meanwhile, home prices are soaring out of sight.
Case-Shiller Home Prices vs Rent
Flashback May 2, 2024 Mishtalk
Please consider/reconsider Home Prices Hit New Record High, Don’t Worry, It’s Not Inflation
My comment “Don’t worry, it’s not inflation” is sarcasm.
Ironically, it’s also true, at least according to what I suggest is poor economic theory. Economists consider home prices a capital expense not a consumer expense. Thus, home prices are not in any inflation index.
I disagree with definitions of inflation that ignore obvious inflation. And siding with me are young voters, blacks, and anyone looking to buy a home but is priced out of the market while watching rent soar out of sight.
Adding Insult to Injury
On top of it all, unemployment for younger voters and blacks has jumped considerably.
And Biden/Democrats cannot figure out why Trump is still ahead in the polls despite him being convicted of a felony (in a farce of a trial that never should have taken place in the first place).
Another Bizarro Jobs Report – Payrolls Rise 272,000 Employment Drop 408,000
For my take on the allegedly hot May jobs report, please see Another Bizarro Jobs Report – Payrolls Rise 272,000 Employment Drop 408,000
Once again, rational people wonder what’s going on with the jobs report. The discrepancy between the trend in jobs and employment surges again.
In the last year, jobs are up 2.8 million while full-time employment is down 1.2 million.
Job numbers based on the entire data (QCEW – Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages) lag by the monthly jobs report by about 5 months but are far more accurate.
Year-Over-Year Change in Nonfarm Payrolls vs QCEW in Thousands
In my follow-up post on the May jobs report, I ask and answer the question How Much Did the BLS Birth-Death Adjustment Pad the May Jobs Report?
The short answer is the BLS overstated 2023 jobs by 735,000 (all in the fourth quarter) and it may or may not have anything to do with BLS birth-death adjustments.
See the above link for details.
Meanwhile, don’t expect any economic improvements for young voters and blacks because improvement is unlikely even if the Fed gets in a token rate cut or two.
Actually, a Fed rate cut would be a sign of a weakening economy. And a weakening economy would help Trump, not Biden.
Correction: I inadvertently typed 1972 instead of 1992 for the Carville reference.
Mish you should have shown a picture of the carnage that resulted from the recent Israeli operation that rescued 4 hostages. 270 women and children blown to bits but we got 4 chosens rescued! Praised be to Yahwah!
Two Words: “Common Sense”
Imagine being a black person and hearing KKK member Strom Thurmond’s self proclaimed disciple go on a Washington DC radio station popular with the black community (and hosted by a black man) … and the KKK disciple says:
“You ain’t black if you don’t vote for who the DNC tells you to vote for”
Its a wonder why blacks voted for Poltergeist Biden in 2020 never mind now after he screwed them over
The Bulk of Jobiden’s “INflation Reduction Act” giveaways have gone to Red states and they care not one whit for him or Blue states or the people in Blue states or his son..
The wars he’s carrying for israel also do not swing the hard right Wall Street donors who favor Trump for the total kill.
What a clown Jobiden is!
And then there is this https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20240607-a-loaf-of-bread-and-the-moaning-of-the-egyptians/
Inflation kills
Unemployed Hispanics and Blacks have Biden to thank for bringing in illegal aliens who take jobs that pay less than minimum wage.
This generational / class divide has led to giving up on the American Dream–or the Chinese Dream: in China, Financial Nihilism is called lying flat or let it rot, expressions of individual rejection of the social pressures to overwork and sacrifice one’s life for a rat-race with rapidly diminishing returns. This is an apt description of Financial Nihilism.
That the American Dream–homeownership and steady improvements in earning and wealth–is out of reach of most young Americans is painfully obvious, and their response is Financial Nihilism: borrowing and spending freely to enjoy whatever is still within reach and giving up on homeownership and retirement, a trend captured in acronyms such as YOLO (you only live once).
https://charleshughsmith.substack.com/p/financial-nihilism-and-the-collapsing
Weird. I’m a first generation immigrant and homeownership was never the goal. That was always a by product of years of hard work and advancement. I did not buy a home until I was 38 — 16 years after I started working, saving and planning. I think too much of this generation doesn’t want to work hard enough to achieve anything but wants to be rewarded for nearly everything. It is a by-product of the participation trophy generation. They think it comes easy to everyone who has it but in truth it does not and never did. Anything that looks easy usually isn’t.
It’s a whole lot harder know … housing prices have increased dramatically … wages have come nowhere near to keeping place.
That said … when Liar Loans were a thing in the early 2000’s … it was possible to buy a house quite easily … but we saw what happened when prices crashed….
The wealthy can move assets and themselves around to avoid a lot of stupidity, and they can slash their income when morons are “in charge”. The poor cannot do either.
Big government is disastrous for the poor, the young (who generally haven’t accumulated assets yet) and blacks (ditto).
The young also know who is going to get stuck with the $35 trillion in unpaid federal bills (and state / local debt too). Sure as sh!t won’t be that corrupt senile bastard in the oval office.
The young are starting to realize that Social Security is not funded and won’t be there after 2034. Whether the crooks in DC raise SS taxes or cut SS benefits, the young are going to pay more and/or get less.
The young also are going to get an IRA retirement ($6000 per year, if they fund it themselves). The criminals in DC (both elected and bureaucrats) are giving themselves pensions that would easily cost $50000 and taxpayers fund it, not the crooks.
The real question is why young people haven’t outright rebeled against the gerontocracy…. yet. If history is any guide, the criminal class can either accept radical cuts to the size and scope of government, or meet the fate of Arch Duke Fernidand (or the shah of Iran, or King Louis / Marie Antionette).
PS – James Carville, like so many others in politics, is decades passed his sell by date. He had his turn, and he blew it. He should just shut up and stick to mahongg or whatever retirement homes play
hmm. But was it the economy in every election since 1992 ? By 1996, Clinton had lost both the house and senate despite a booming economy. In 2000, despite 8 years of prosperity, America ‘chose’ a Bush from Texas that promptly oversaw the worst recession in post-WW2 history and started 2 wars after multiple terrorist attacks on American soil. After winning the election in 2004 due to effectively the unity the terrorist attacks caused, Bush cratered. By 2006, Bush had lost both houses of congress and could do nothing right as the economy and markets crashed in 2008. The Republican nominee in 2008 effectively stopped his campaign for the White House in order to allow an orderly transition over a failed economy to the Democratic nominee. By 2012 the economy still had not recovered but voters stuck with President Obama over Mitt Romney despite a slow economy. By 2016, the economy was doing okay but out of nowhere Trump pulls off an electoral college victory due to a poor economy in a few critical swing states that the Democratic nominee evidently thought were in the bag. 2020 was a pandemic election marred by allegations of voter fraud and conspiracy theories. In the end, it turned into an effective electoral landslide against Trump and it was a referendum on the 4 years. Even Carrot Top might have beaten Trump in 2020. Impossible to predict what happens in 2024 but based on the last 20 years, I would rule out nothing. The bottom line is the economy has only been one factor in all of these elections and sometimes not even the primary one.
I would have voted for Carrot Top!
It could also be because his dementia is blatantly obvious and troubling.
I would say welcome to reality to young voters and blacks. FWIW, I don’t think it matters who is president or the party in power, there are global economic forces at play that has compromised the job prospects of lower classes and younger voters in all developed countries. This isn’t a new phenomenon. The reason why it was sort of masked is b/c of the low interest rate environment from 2000-2022. That era is now gone. If the Fed lowers rates, things will just get more not less expensive. So young voters and blacks (and the rest of us) actually have no real choices in this and future elections. This isn’t like an election from 1996-2020. For the first time, it is an election in a higher interest rate environment with problems that cannot be solved by low interest rates.
Great utube video from Daniella Martino Booth about how everyone is trying to gaslight us on the economy. Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w021Ju50q98
I’ll reiterate my prediction that the next president will be be someone other than Biden or Trump.
Trump simply won’t be “allowed” to be the next president. But short of ballot fraud, Biden can’t beat him.
Trump could be assassinated. Biden could drop out or drop dead. Congress or the Supreme Court may step in to decide who the next president is.
Whatever the scenario turns out to be, I don’t think either Biden or Trump will be sitting in the White house come Jan. 21st.
From your mouth to God’s ears, as the expression goes.
Highly unlikely. Come Jan 21, it will be Biden or Trump in the White House.
What will you do if you are wrong? Buy everyone here a coffee?
🙂 Are you sure that isn’t just wishful thinking?
Both are too old.
Oddly enough, Trump probably has the worse age problem!
BTW, I give it 25% to 40% you’re right. But that’s wishful thinking on my part.
The super debt cycle is coming to an end and when it does, it’s gonna make 2008 look like a walk-through the park …
Economist Harry Dent predicts stock market crash worse than 2008 crisis: The ‘bubble of all bubbles’
By Kristen Altus
June 10, 2024
Harry Dent, the outspoken financial author and economist, isn’t reversing course from his bold “crash of a lifetime” declaration this past December.
Speaking in an updated interview with Fox News Digital, Dent cautioned that the “everything” bubble has still yet to burst, and it may be a bigger crash than the Great Recession.
“In 1925 to ‘29, it was a natural bubble. There was no stimulus behind that, artificial stimulus per se. So this is new. This has never happened,” Dent said on Tuesday. “What do you do if you want to cure a hangover? You drink more. And that’s what they’ve been doing.”
“Flooding the economy with extra money forever might actually enhance the overall economy long-term. But we’ll only see when we see this bubble burst,” he added. “And again, this bubble has been going 14 years. Instead of most bubbles [going] five to six, it’s been stretched higher, longer. So you’d have to expect a bigger crash than we got in 2008 to ’09.”
As markets inch closer to the halfway mark of the year, U.S. stocks ended the month of May with gains as the tech-heavy Nasdaq stole the show, finishing up 6.9%. The S&P 500 was up 4.8% and the Dow Jones was up 2.3%.
Nearly two weeks ago, tech and A.I.-heavy Nvidia announced a 10-for-1 stock split, propelling shares past $1,000 three days later, marking an all-time high.
“I think we’re going to see the S&P go down 86% from the top, and the Nasdaq 92%. A hero stock like Nvidia, as good as it is, and it is a great company, [goes] down 98%. Boy, this is over,” Dent stressed.
…
http://foxbusiness.com/media/economist-harry-dent-predicts-stock-market-crash-worse-2008-crisis-bubble-bubbles
Well 2008 wasn’t that bad. The badness came in 2009.Anyone remember S&P 666 at the March 2009 bottom ?
“The rich are feeling confident, but lower-income households are growing cautious.”
Buffett or Musk could lose a billion dollars in wealth and still be filthy rich. I remember when Buffett’s right hand man, Charlie Munger said to those struggling after the Great Recession, that they needed to suck it up and cope.
Small nitpick, but that James Carville quote is from 1992, not 1972.
yes, fixed – thanks
but when september surprise takes place
ie joey taking long awaited dirt nap, etc.
and then having
michelle magically run to save democracy
all those same voters will magically switch back to brownie-ville
No job
No car
No house
No money
No votes for Biden!!!
An all time low in the black unemployment rate didn’t seem to make a dent in the crime rate. Just sayin’.
Yeah, apparently two different groups of people, eh?
Always very selective in data spans
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1oPmY
How does a wider data span account for nobody/very few having multiple jobs 5 years ago and now millions of jobs are counted and logged as “filled jobs” but held by only a few hundred thousand people?
I know middle aged couples working 18 hour days across 2 or 3 jobs and living on RedBull, Monster Energy and fast food and have been doing it nonstop since 2020/21. This shit is gonna end badly
Which direction is it going now?
Does the level or direction explain what’s happening?
In the latest shocker, the Labor Department reported on Friday that the U.S. added 272,000 jobs in May, up from 165,000 in April and much higher than economists’ expectations. The strong reading is especially perplexing because it comes on the heels of a string of weak economic reports in recent weeks, including soft income and spending data for the month of April and a lower-than-expected reading on manufacturing sentiment in May.
I’d be interested to know how many of those new jobs are a result of working age people dying or being maimed from the Covid vaccines.
Don’t count your chickens before they are hatched on rent CPI. My rent went up 8% last month, and I follow a lot of real estate investors who have been bragging about 20%+ rent increases they have been imposing as they acquire new properties for their portfolios. Once again, you may be too early.
In the Fed’s inflation expectations report released moments ago, the “Commodity price change expectations” lists expectations of rent one year hence to be 9.1% higher, so that settles that.
If they just gave a universal basic income to everyone who is struggling, then those peeps would be happy and would vote for whoever they were told to vote for. MMT says we could easily afford this … Errrrr
The problem is with technology soon to replace 50% of jobs and then within the working lifespan of those about to enter the workforce possibly 95% of all jobs going then how will society reorganise the system? MMT? UBI? Social Credit Score? Whatever it is will almost certainly be the death of true freedom of people to either work to get ahead or just coast along in the lower strata. You will own nothing and be subservient to Big Brother
….. if only the FED had the courage to crush the personal paper portfolios of the “other economy”, even the playing field, and vanquish the massive inflation problem that the “other economy” is fueling.
The wealth effect is real and has been catered to and bubbled artificially for FAR TOO LONG
….. but on 2nd thought, who would pay the FED members $50k to $250k per speech and have board seats warmed and ready for them as they leave the FED and enter their golden parachute grift?
You hit that out of the park my good man.
Powell has his MILLIONS in the stock market under management by Blackrock, along with their HUGE, TRILLIONS, stock portfolio.
Biden spent money in the wrong place to buy votes. He should have focused on rent money instead of student loan money.
Old school dems would have been all over that. Instead, democrats have become the party of the elite and out of touch.
People vote for thier pocketbooks. That is all…
I still think the young women are gonna be a deciding factor in this race (as they were in the last few state races), as it is literally their own butts are on the line. In the 1960s the young guys got political as they got drafted for Vietnam. This time it will be the women who will vote against being forced to raise their rapists’ baby.
I don’t know. Forced vaccination didn’t turn out a lot of women or others in the midterms in an effort to protect my body my choice. And of course while it’s a good bit of rhetoric, I don’t think raising your rapists baby is on the menu anywhere except in the reddest of red locales where democrats have zero chance anyway.
I’m actually pro-choice but why doesn’t the “choice” begin before conception?
One of the side effects of the vaccine is problems with reproduction for woman and men – less pregnancies, less babies being born.
19th ammendment will continue to haunt.
Nothing more dangerous than a self-guilt filled suburban white woman
Women think with their ovaries.
But mostly on false perceived guilt.
Next on temporary emotions that swing wildly. They will even vote on the “good looks” of a candidate.
Based on the past couple of voting cycle maps, every state would be DEEP blue (except maybe 2 or 3) and completely communist if only women voted. We would have Mao and Stalin back in power, UBI, police state, no 2A, no 4A, no 1A, open borders, 90% taxes, $100T in debt, and on and on…….. I even suspect the Libertarian party and thought would be outlawed by now
“Based on the past couple of voting cycle maps, every state would be DEEP blue (except maybe 2 or 3) and completely communist if only women voted.”
And yet; you reliably can count on even dupes claiming to be “conservatives,” to mindlessly regurgitate women’s suffrage being somehow an “improvement” over civilized-era institutions.
Exactly as the same, self proclaimed sounds-tough-to-claim-I’m-a-“conservative” idiots, can be counted on cheering for income taxes, The Fed, standing armies, publicly funded eductrination, professional policing and the entire rest of the trivially nonsensical progressive canon. With many of the morons insisting those more literate among us are; of all things; “leftists,” even. Another day, another idiocy (or ten) in Idiotopia…..
Have you notice the marked improvement in political candidates since the voting rights act, lowering the voting age, motor voter laws and mail in ballots?
No. Every year the candidates get worse
We should raise the voting age to 41 with same-day-only voting on the 5th floor of a building without an elevator. With photo ID, of course.
Yes, the first step was Supreme Court recognition of the Tenth Amendment. “The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to The States, are reserved to The States respectively, or to The People.” We fought a civil war to defend that right and The States and The People lost the Tenth Amendment right. Now the voters of each state must decide abortion. The Federal Government has usurped many other rights that must be returned to The States and The People.
So youre suggesting slavery is some of the states was ok cause that state wanted it.
Citing the 10th amendment doesn’t mean ignoring the 13th.
Slaves were Constitutionally legal property. If Lincoln had proposed to free the slaves with just compensation as required by the takings clause of the Constitutional then the war might have been avoided. 600,000 deaths would have been avoided.
Just compensation wasn’t required.
It’s similar to how the government (Federal and State) enacts fish and wildlife acts. Despite deer on your property being ‘yours’ you still can’t hunt them out of season nor can you kill endangered species just because they reside on your lands.
You confound state law with Constutional Federal law.
We’ll see when the womyn get drafted to fight in Iran. That might knock abortion down a few pegs in their priority list.
After all, there are oppressed women in Iran and anything a man can do, a woman can do.
I cant wait for women to serve equally in the military.
And men to give equal birth to future warriors.
When the going gets tough in the Army the girls get pregnant.
I don’t think any rational women are worried about raising their rapist’s baby – unless they live next to Hunter Biden. Post Dobbs, some states have become more lenient. In Minnesota, you can now abort the kid anytime before he graduates from high school.
Anyone that wants an abortion can get one. You can cross state lines if your state doesn’t allow abortions.
So says someone with a working car and who doesnt care if the kids are left alone.
I never see black roofers or black home improvement workers. The norm where I live is all Hispanic. Even a White-owned form – Hispanic workers. Hispanic lawn maintenence, Hispanic gardeners. Not just Mexicans, either. We frequently hire a hard-working Chilean who now employs several Hispanic workers. Where be the black workers?
I once worked for a black general contractor and I asked him why he didn’t employ any black workers and he said he’d love to but they don’t show up and complain too much True story he was based in Sag Harbor NY my neighbor and a good guy
Just a comment.
When I was a young man starting out in Residential construction there were crews of Black men who did the finest trim work a person can imagine.
Not only that it was all done with hand saws, backsaws and hand nailed. This before Chopbox was available.
This fairly much ended by 1980’s.
The ones who remained went into stair building.
Lot has been lost over the years as fathers did not pass down trade knowledge to sons as families got torn apart.
Same here in South Florida.
Its probably on the order of 85% Hispanic, 14% White and maybe 1% Black.
Most of the Hispanics here are from one of the Caribbean islands or Venezuela/Columbia.
I live in the Chicago suburbs and have often wondered that. Most strange.
“If you don’t vote for me, you ain’t black.” —Joe Biden
“They’re [Republicans] going to put y’all back in chains.”– Joe Biden 2012
“Unless we do something about this, my children are going to grow up in a jungle, the jungle being a racial jungle with tensions having built so high that it is going to explode at some point”.-Joe Biden 1977
ever see the photo with biden, in a car, a parade somewhere, with wheelchair bound Robert Byrd, Democrat whose family were in the KKK. ?
Biden is raising the mans hand, LOL………Only a Democrat gets away with that
Robert C. Byrd was the grand kleagle of the kkk and prominent democrat. Biden called him “my mentor.”
Byrd still has many schools, roads, bridges, statues, etc in his honor and “strangely” was never cancelled or had anything removed or torn down …. because his sins are covered by the democrat party. Not a word from BLM about him in 2000/2001 either. Some funny shit 🤣 😂 if it wasn’t so pathetically saf