Trump is ahead in the latest poll. Younger voters leave the Biden camp. James Carville has a meltdown.
Trump Maintains Lead Over Biden
A CNN poll shows Trump maintains lead over Biden in 2024 matchup as views on their presidencies diverge
Donald Trump continues to hold an advantage over President Joe Biden as the campaign – and the former president’s criminal trial – move forward, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS. And in the coming rematch, opinions about the first term of each man vying for a second four years in the White House now appear to work in Trump’s favor, with most Americans saying that, looking back, Trump’s term as president was a success, while a broad majority says Biden’s has so far been a failure.
Trump’s support in the poll among registered voters holds steady at 49% in a head-to-head matchup against Biden, the same as in CNN’s last national poll on the race in January, while Biden’s stands at 43%, not significantly different from January’s 45%.
Looking back, 55% of all Americans now say they see Trump’s presidency as a success, while 44% see it as a failure. In a January 2021 poll taken just before Trump left office and days after the January 6 attack on the US Capitol, 55% considered his time as president a failure.
Republicans now are more unified around the idea that Trump’s presidency was a success than Democrats are that Biden’s has been one. Overall, 92% of Republicans call Trump’s time in office a success, while just 73% of Democrats say Biden’s has been a success so far. Among independents, 51% say Trump’s presidency was successful, while only 37% see Biden’s as a success.
Biden with his energy mandates, flouting of the supreme court, radical tax proposals, slave reparations, and the desire to pack the courts is now considered the greater threat to democracy.
The Economy
Biden’s approval ratings for the economy (34%) and inflation (29%) remain starkly negative, as voters say economic concerns are more important to them when choosing a candidate than they were in each of the past two presidential contests. In the new poll, 65% of registered voters call the economy extremely important to their vote for president, compared with 40% who felt that way in early 2020 and 46% who said the same at roughly this point in 2016. Those voters who say the economy is deeply important break heavily for Trump in a matchup against Biden, 62% to 30%.
A broad majority of all Americans, 70%, say economic conditions in the US are poor, with many, particularly Republicans, who feel that way saying their views would be more affected by a political shift than a change in the economy itself.
Americans’ perceptions of their own finances also remain negative, with 53% saying they are dissatisfied with their personal financial situation while 47% are satisfied. Dissatisfaction is starkly prevalent among those with lower incomes (67% dissatisfied in households with annual incomes lower than $50,000), people of color (64% say they are dissatisfied) and younger Americans (61% of those younger than 45 say they are dissatisfied).
Other Issues
Considering other issue priorities for the upcoming election, 58% of voters call protecting democracy an extremely important issue, the only other issue tested that a majority considers central to their choice. Nearly half call immigration, crime and gun policy deeply important (48% each), with health care (43%), abortion (42%) and nominations to the US Supreme Court (39%) each deeply important to about 4 in 10 voters. At the lower end of the scale, just 33% consider foreign policy that important, 27% climate change, 26% the war between Israel and Hamas, and 24% student loans.
Impressions
A sizable 17% of registered voters say they have unfavorable views of both Biden and Trump, and in choosing between the two, they break for Trump, 43% to 31%, with 25% of that group saying they would vote for someone else, skip the contest entirely or just aren’t sure who they would support.
In the Biden vs. Trump matchup, the poll finds Biden faring worse than in previous CNN polls among the youngest voters, trailing Trump by a 51%-to-40% margin among voters younger than 35. Biden’s deficit with voters in that group is driven largely by those who did not vote in 2020. With that group excluded, voters between the ages of 18 and 34 in this poll divide 46% for Biden to 47% for Trump.
Among all voters, Biden remains at a bit of a disadvantage relative to Trump in terms of the share of voters who have ruled out voting for him: 52% say there’s no chance they would support him, while 47% say there’s no chance they would back Trump, both numbers are similar to the level found in a fall CNN survey. A small share of registered voters – 5% for Biden, 3% for Trump – say that although they are not currently backing that candidate they would consider them.
But the poll finds that Biden voters and Trump voters largely just don’t understand each other. Among those who do not currently support Biden, 66% say they don’t understand why anyone would support him, and 63% of those not backing Trump say they can’t understand why anyone would support him.
Carville Meltdown
Question of the Day
Do young people really want another old white man yelling at them to vote Democrat?
Biden Calls on the Press
Q&A on Israel
Mish: “Votes that would have gone to Biden, don’t go to Trump, but they vanish (no vote)” or adding today, go to Kennedy or Jill Stein.
My opinion expressed yesterday is exactly what James Carville is having a meltdown over toady.
Swing State Poll Shows Black Voters Abandoning Biden In Huge Numbers
On April 12, I commented Swing State Poll Shows Black Voters Abandoning Biden In Huge Numbers
Blacks constitute only 14 percent of the voting age population, but the swings toward Trump are so huge they could decide the election.
WSJ: “While most Black men said they intend to support Biden, some 30% of them in the poll said they were either definitely or probably going to vote for the former Republican president.”
That’s an 18 percentage point swing, minimum, for black males, if the national results and the swing state voting is similar.
Younger Voters and Blacks Disatisfied
According to the CNN poll, 61% of those younger than 45 say they are dissatisfied.
Younger voters and blacks when overwhelmingly for Biden in 2020. Trump has huge pickups in these groups.
People Who Rent Will Decide the 2024 Presidential Election
Immigration won’t decide the election. Polls have not yet captured what will. This may come as a surprise, but the top issue housing. More explicitly, it’s shelter costs.
Generational Homeownership Rates
Who Are the Renters?
The answer is younger voters and blacks.
Generation Z homeownership is dramatically lower than the home ownership rate of millennials.
And according to the National Association of Realtors, the homeownership rate among Black Americans is 44 percent whereas for White Americans it’s 72.7 percent.
That’s the largest Black-White homeownership rate gap in a decade.
Home Prices Hit New Record High
The latest Case-Shiller housing data shows home prices hit a new record high. Adding insults and costs, the 30-year mortgage rate ended last week at 7.50 percent
Youth Poll
On April 20, I commented People Who Rent Will Decide the 2024 Presidential Election
Q: What is it that young voters really have on their minds?
A: Rent
Many with rent as their top concern will switch to Trump. They are fed up with rising inflation. Rent is up at least 0.4 percent per month for 30 months.
Young voters propelled Biden over the top in 2020. Things look very different today. Many voters who do not like either Trump or Biden will sit this election out.
Carville’s rant does not change these issues.
I think these polls are all fake. They ALWAYS show a narrow margin whichever way they go, so as to make any result obtained by cheating believable. Between now and the election you won’t see a poll that will put a Biden victory out of reach.
Polls also are held close to drive advertising spend. That’s one of the main reasons media corporation spokesholes are pushing for eliminating the electoral college. California and New York media miss out on the advertising bonanza since they’re solidly democratic.
“Gollum! Gollum!!”
The youth that he bitches about? Well they don’t vote anyway. They just “outrage”
You lost me at “James Carville has Meltdown”.
The dems and their 97% supporters in Academia have spent generations breeding the youth to be close minded activists and now the dems are finding, like all close minded collectivist ideologies, that even the dems aren’t pure enough for the cause.
Carville = OK, boomer
Biden takes policy choices that younger voters hate. Younger voters decide not to vote. Democrats outraged at this “incomprehensible” decision.
No one is truthfully excited about this election.in 2016 I voted for Trump and in 2020 I voted for Biden. My vote didn’t matter in either case bc I live in a heavily blue state. In my estimation, this election is really about stopping Putin’s westward expansion plans at all costs. Southern Europe is getting a noose put around their necks with Putin’s expansion into North Africa. Trump would effectively hand Europe to Putin. Biden would not. If anything we should be attempting to overthrow Putin at any cost and free the Russian people. This election is really about not favoring the autocratic regimes of the world starting with Putin. In 2012 people laughed at Mitt Romney for suggesting the biggest threat to the US was Putin. I told my wife then he was right but the world would get complacent as would Obama. This is exactly what played out and it is why we are where we are.
As a population, the US has gotten complacent and wants to retreat into a pre ww2 stance of not getting involved until there is an attack on American soil. At some point there will be one again and this is what will change people’s minds for another generation. Right now the youth of America take for granted what they have. Doing that for a generation or two is exactly what will lead to the complacency necessary for an enemy to strike the US again.
“Southern Europe is getting a noose put around their necks with Putin’s expansion into North Africa.”
Who tried to overthrow Assad? Who was it that invited loads of refugees into Europe? When Yeltsin was Russian president, Clinton blocked Russia from any involvement during the Serbian bombing. That was a humiliation. After the U.S. military forced Japan to allow trade with American businesses in the 1850’s, the humiliation caused the emperor to modernize the military, so that would not happen again. Don’t poke the bear, is the lesson being ignored. Action begets reaction.
We were going to fight the communists in our back yards if Vietnam fell…blah blah etc
We were going to fight the communists in our back yards if Vietnam fell
Do you even believe yourself?
No one cares about the Ukraine, least of all the black community that the dems so heavily rely upon.
Afroman – Hunter Got High (Official Video) – YouTube
Stop blaming the 26 year olds when its old dudes like you James and other rank and file democrats who believe 1) Biden is doing a good job and 2) is is so inspiring that youngsters want to rush out and vote for him.
The election will be won or lost by phantom voters, become familiar with these folks link to omega4america.substack.com
His meltdown brings some joy to my heart.
I heard a lot of Liberal Potty talk. I thought they were supposed to talk nice.
My eyes nearly popped out of their sockets. CNN actually reported that voters think Trump was a success and Biden a failure. If CNN were to show more support for Biden it would have said Trump was more successful than Biden.
If I had a hundred bucks for every time I have heard or read that “This election is the most important in history,” I would be Warren Buffett. I actually respect Carville, but this time he needs a sedative fer chrissakes.
I would only need a nickel each time to be set for life.
Carville is a douchebag. They all are. On all sides. The worst get on top as Hayek wrote.
And f*** democracy. I don’t want it. Give me a constitutional republic where the Fed gov’s powers are few and defined. We used to have that, but failed to keep it. Was Lysander Spooner correct about what he said about the Constitution? It sure does seem like a mostly dead letter.
I like Carville (apart from whether or not I agree with him) because he’s honest, plus his one-liner from 1992 rings true: “It’s the economy, stupid!” The same will be true this year.
I don’t really care for Carville, but he is no dummy. He saw the fault of Hillary’s campaign against Trump before anybody else did.
“Who is the threat to democracy?”
Democrats. They are weaponizing against democracy with their lawfare. They are even trying to keep RFK Jr. off the ballot.
Houck: “Biden calls on journalists to rise up against Trump in the 2024 election”
Biden calls on journalists to meddle in 2024 election. In 2020, CBS’s Leslie Stahl meddled in our election, telling Trump that the Hunter laptop couldn’t be verified, “because it can’t.” Political activism, not journalism.
If it wasn’t for Steve Garvey coming in second, i would have no one to vote for to be U.S. Senator from California. It would have been two democrats as the only choice. State Assembly and Senate will be two Democrats, so no vote from me. Choosing not to vote is a choice, just as voting is.
link to youtube.com
Just saying this in as wide a forum as possible.
Biden will win by hook or crook.
The rigging/corruption will be VERY obvious & plain to see on Election Night… all according to the script.
But the post-election scenario will not unfold as “planned”. The folks doing the cheating are in for a real surprise.
How do you want your Crow, baked or fried?
Is that a threat?
CNN plays word games: Trump didn’t “maintain” his lead, he expanded it.
The whole country panicked in 1999 by the end of the world that was coming cause of Y2K. And in the end, all was well, and the right thing happened. Relax. The women are coming to save us.
Women bring nothing but chaos and emotions. Just take a look at the mayors of LA and San Francisco. It takes strong men to create good times.
What is a woman?
It really won’t make any difference who wins Biden Trump because Congress will be split as usual and nothing will get done for another four years … The system is set up to maintain the status quo …
I respectfully disagree; you could easily end up with an election scenario where one party narrowly controls Congress AND the Executive Branch. If that’s the case with (D)s still running the show, it is going to be even uglier than what we’ve had the previous four years because the status quo is rapidly coming to a fiscal implosion end.
The status quo depends on finding more and more suckers dumb enough to lend them another $2 trillion plus every year forever.
You also assume that social security will magically pay itself, even though government accountants say its only 70% funded, and private sector accountants say it is barely 45% funded. maybe you take a nice 50% cut in benefits? Maybe you pay 55% more in taxes to get the same amount you were originally promised? Either way, you pay more and get less… also known as a default.
The status quo is not sustainable, and the accounting tricks (and fraud) to kick the can down the road are almost gone.
Two 80 year olds vying to see who will max out their grandkids credit cards. A Congress full of grifters, deadbeats and cowards — many of whom are as old as the presidential candidates. This government ignored train derailments, hurricane damage, forest fires, a failed education system, and a failed hospital system — all so they could send more money to a pointless war in a country most of us can’t find on a map. Bureaucrats at the NIH think the kids are nothing but a bunch of lab rats to test bioweapons and lockdown tactics upon. Neither the elected officials nor the public servants even pretend to care about the population they allegedly “serve”.
No one in their right mind would lend these losers any more money. The world is starting to say so.
meanwhile, “the kids” are too busy paying interest on grandpa’s debt to worry about which grandpa is going to finish off the government that does not care about the kids either way.
The status quo can’t hold much longer. The only question is how much chaos will happen and who will replace the losers in DC?
It does make a difference; biden’s executive orders are killing us, Trump’s might actually help us.
That leaves the President to rule by executive action (i. e. If Biden wins that means millions more illegals will be allowed in the country and tax payers will be supporting free healthcare, free food, free housing, etc)
Hey James. Your candidate sucks! Put up a better candidate or STFU!!!
1992 is when Carville got involved, flapping lips and making no sense at all.
Here we are 32 years later and that Shill is STILL at it. What happened to his insane Wife?
The insane wife was the Republican. One of YOUSE. 🙂
And you have Carville on your side. Hardly a prize.
Grandpa’s yelling at The TV again.
That’s been his schtick for at least thirty years. He has volume while he’s foaming at the mouth, trying to rile up his easily duped base; but cannot put together anything coherent or compelling on why his side should be supported. They have a hideous track record they have to defend now, so divisive fear mongering is all he has.
Reminds me of the Rolling Stones FINAL farewell tour in the middle 90s. Then another one. Then another final tour. The drummer passed. Another final tour, in which Mick “don’t trust anyone over 30” Jagger hobbled around the stage.
This year, Billie Joel and Elton John are looking at the expiry date on the milk bottle — well it says best if used by May 2014 … Meanwhile Paris Hilton and AOC are tuning up their voice modulators; the social justice warriors will sing Uncle Sam out.
Its fitting that a political pundit who peaked in the 1990s is also having a farewell tour.
People only vote with their hearts when their stomachs are full.
Currently, more people find their cupboards to be bare.
Telling people that they’re not hungry, when they are, isn’t going to work this time.
Why would anyone care what carville thinks
So they let him out of his room at the old folks home. LOL
President Carter seemed to bolster the ranks of Republican Boomers in the late 70s. Maybe President Biden is doing the same to Gen Z. The reasons even seem similar.
Carville just made a great campaign ad. For Trump.
The so called epidemic and the real lock downs, social distancing, remote learning terrorized kids. And entire generation wants to live life w/out the manipulated bullshit and propaganda spewed by an admin led by a walking corpse. Climate alarmism, race and gender manufactured crises, meh, can I please just find a job in a functioning economy and let me take it from there!
Bullshit and Manipulation?? Trump! 100%
Manufacturing Racist and Gender issues?? Trump! 100%
Spending the next 9 months in Court for illegal crap he did?? Trump! 100%
Yep the Angry Orange Mussolini Wannabe fits all of those criteria.
Yes, Trump is coming for you in your dreams. Good luck with that.
So you’re not voting for Biden?
…and yet people seem to prefer that over the alternative – tells you a lot about the alternative, doesn’t it?
We also have elections in the UK and I decided not to vote. Reality is voting gives legitimacy to a process that is no longer legitimate. I’ve lost count of the policies introduced by winning parties that never were mentioned in manifestoes. Regardless of who is in power, the burden of taxation and laws will increase. No parties are able/willing to address the fundamental problem incurred in a fiat currency system, and this being a global issue, none of them can do much about it even if they were willing to acknowledge the issue.
None are willing to address the impact of changing demographics, and the unaffordability of many social welfare schemes.
None appear to understand that wealth is created by adding value to basic materials, preferring to rely on the piggy bank of a broken taxpayer and the Bank of England.
Both major parties are forever war parties, wither though action or by deliberate ignorance.
None are willing to be pragmatic regards Russia, China and the increasing power of non-Western countries.
None are willing to call out Israel for Genocide. ‘Genocide’ is only committed by countries we dislike; alleged allies are just defending themselves
Russia is a collapsing empire, just like the UK collapsed last century.
Putin is just speeding up the process by slaughtering the Russian people by throwing them into a meat grinder. NATO gets Two MORE countries added.
Putin could have created an even richer Russia…now he lost the largest and closest customers in Europe.
europe (esp. france & germany) are buying more RU gas now than ever.
NATO is collapsing, not RU… RU is expanding, economically, demographically & geographically. objective data is there for all to see.
you can have your opinion, but the actual facts on the ground are quite different from the “fantasy world” you describe here.
Russia is not expanding economically and demographically, but it’s certainly not collapsing, and the sanctions have not had the desired effect at all. The Americans know their war in Ukraine is futile.
3% econ. growth YoY… despite asinine western sanctions…
…and RU has added millions of new citizens, all living/working @ the largest industrial region in eurasia (Donbas).
i’m not a partisan cheerleader, btw… these are just objective facts.
No, the EU is a collapsing empire – it’s broke, many banks overleveraged, EU persistent unemployment, high costs, high debt and low trade.
Comparing current Russia to the British Empire makes zero sense.
It’s the Ukrainians that America is throwing into it’s meatgrinder, and the American political establishment is profiteering via all those young corpses, who could have been saved with a ceasefire, just like in Gaza – whoops.
I don’t know a single person under 40 who supports Biden. No one.
Doubt anyone under 40 likes you enough to talk to you, if they’re not family
so bitter… so sad.
Desperate David trying to smear reality sounds like Dementia David smearing faeces on his nursing room bedroom wall during a night terror.
Younger people look at this and see two old codgers in the retirement home fighting over who gets to feel up the nurse. It’s pathetic.
Only one of them wants to sniff the nurse.
I have 2 bonus children that fit the demographic that in the past would have voted Democrat for decades, like their entire maternal family. Voted Trump, will vote Trump again. 2 nephews and a niece, 2 Trump voters, 1 non voter. Regardless of party they are deeply disgusted by the financial setup they’ve been handed. Sure people will say lots of good things were handed to them but I like to say, “when money is no object we can buy all sortsa things, some of them good.”…but that money was backed by debt and they see it and all of its impacts and ills and are angry AF or sickeningly disconnected with hopelessness. Just anecdotal. I can assure you the campus of UW-Madison is a dystopian Democratic cesspool and my niece is leaving that uni for that reason.
Is Carville even relevant anymore? In all seriousness, I didn’t realize he was still living. He’s the equivalent of Newt Gingrich on the Republican side. In my view, only “old school” voters still pay attention to either of these two clowns, and thier numbers dwindle by the day.
demographics still lean towards OLD fukkers….they have all day to get to voting booth, or mail-in, or cruise their walkers to the post office. young folks are busy working or playing video games
Another senile old wet fart throwing a temper tantrum because his grandkids figured out he has been running up debts he can’t pay for decades.
Debtors don’t get to make the rules loser. Instead of making tough choices like a real man, instead of dealing with your spending addictions — you chose cowardice.
You kept kicking the can down the road, and now the world knows you are unable to pay. All the wealth you inherited from your parents has been squandered, and you leave nothing but IOUs for your kids.
What a bunch of f#cking losers.
Just like the Angry Orange Mussolini Wannabe…
Orange Man was president already – everyone remembers… and we now have a Biden term for comparison.
Your ridiculous choice of words only reminds people of how much worse Biden is.
Backfire.
Please keep posting – your delusion is delicious.
As opposed to the Angry Blue Mussolini actuality…
Carville and his cronies assumed they were going to bullshit there way thru this one.
Trouble is issues are quite real and far too many people have been hurt to have another
round of sweep it under the carpet and pretend it doesn’t exist.
Carville forgot to add Biden is out and we are working on a replacement.
Trump is arguing before the supreme court that as President he has absolute immunity against prosecution for anything, including murder of his political opponents. If he wins the case, does that mean Biden can go ahead and murder Trump? Just asking questions.
Everyone knows these are political trials straight out of a banana republic. You’ve guaranteed his reelection with your behavior.
Those Ivy League morons think Bin Laden is a “political opponent”
Biden is already trying to get Robert F Kennedy Jr murdered by refusing to provide Secret Service protection despite repeated request (contrary to what the lying black lesbian minister of propaganda says, RFK Jr has asked for it several times). No other President has done this
Biden is killing himself.
he’s already dead-minded
That would certainly quiet down the Republicans….
Not that anyone is acting like a real Republican anymore.
How would you know?
You’re trying to talk sense to people who are desperately trying to deny what fools they’ve made of themselves simping for Trump.
They know. Their pride just won’t let them admit it… and their narcissism makes them lie about it.
holy projection, batman!
No it’s really much simpler than that – people are really sick of being poor… and also sick of all the identity politics garbage, and fearmongering, and actual crime.
What would Biden plead? Insanity?
The generation who’s future was mortgaged in the 80s has come to fruition.
Turns out, it didn’t trickle down at all.
Trickle down got you a good paying job because someone paid for the shovel. Otherwise you would be digging with your fingernails and writing with a pencil. Where the money paid you went is all on you.
Don’t be foolish Comrade. Go back and get your Vodka Ration from your Sugar Daddy Putinsky. Plenty of “shovel ready jobs” for you burying Russians who get thrown into the Meat Grinder in Ukraine.
You sure seem angry for someone who’s certain Biden and Ukraine are going to win. Shouldn’t you be happier?
Surely Comrade Biden and his corrupt socialist acolytes in Ukraine are the ones in a sugar daddy relationship? All that debt being run up to line Zelensky’s Swiss bank account, on the corpses of an entire generation of Ukrainian youth, and Nancy’s stock options?
While I want this information to be true, and meaningful, we were in the same place back before the 2022 elections and we lost ground across the country. Schiff is a total loser, and yet he’s a shoein for Senator in Cali.
Carville looks just plain crazy, if not demented himself.
He looks like a Reptilian alien from Zeta Reticuli or somewhere.
His wife’s nickname for him is/was “snakehead”.
I think it was actually “serpent head”.
Turtlehead, surely?
“If you ain’t Democrat, you ain’t black.”
Indeed
The LeftStream Media has covered up Biden’s blatant racism for 50 years.
Whereas the Angry Orange Mussolini Wannabe is just blatantly spewing Racism ALL the time.
Uh uh… that explains all the folks of color now supporting DJT.
…and yet more black people want to vote for him than before… go figure.
A while back I was looking at some depressing videos on the Kensington fentanyl crisis. A very articulate young man described how he was tired of staying on the treadmill to make rent and car payments while still falling behind.
So basically he said screw it and decided getting high (and committing slow suicide) was a better alternative.
LOL! Nobody is watching regime media or their deranged sycophants like this lunatic anymore; especially young people. CNN and MSNBC barely averaged 80,000 daytime viewers for Q1 2024 in the key, “Age 25-54 Demographic.”
link to adweek.com
Now I am convinced that there is global warming for this snake to come out from under the swamp rock
The stooges at CNN, MSNBC, ETC just don’t get it. Every minute of coverage they devote to Trump’s trials and tribulations actually helps him.
Too bad he’s losing his cases. He’ll be the most popular Inmate in the Pokey. Probably become the Choir Director of the Jan6 Choir.
“losing” = more support, more votes, more legacy
Got it.