Trump put a 50 percent tariff on all products from Brazil. Latin America is the source of most US coffee.
Coffee Price per Pound Detail
That price per pound included all coffee. But the US has a strong preference for Arabica varieties from Latin America.
From a year ago, the price per pound of coffee is up $1.94 to $7.93, an increase of 32.4 percent.
From the start of 2025, the price per pound of coffee is up $0.91, an increase of 13.0 percent.
The USDA provides this Chart of Note on Coffee.
The United States is the world’s second leading importer of coffee (both Arabica and Robusta varieties). In 2023, about 80 percent of U.S. unroasted coffee imports came from Latin America (valued at $4.8 billion), principally from Brazil (35 percent) and Colombia (27 percent). Historically, more than 92 percent of U.S. coffee imports have been of the less acidic, higher quality Arabica variety, which commands a premium relative to Robusta coffee.
Most US coffee imports are in the form of unroasted beans.
Storage
Green coffee beans can generally be stored for 6 to 12 months while maintaining good quality, assuming they are stored in proper conditions. Factors like storage conditions (temperature, humidity, light, and air exposure) and packaging play a significant role in how long they remain fresh.
As green coffee beans age, they may lose some of their aromatic qualities, and the flavors may become less vibrant or even develop undesirable characteristics like a papery or woody taste.
Unlike gold, silver, or copper, storage and spoilage are big issues for coffee. So the answer to the lead question is likely not, to any significant degree.
Driving Up the Price of Coffee and Orange Juice
The New York Times notes Tariffs on Brazil Could Leave Coffee Drinkers With a Headache
Getting a daily caffeine fix could become more expensive.
President Trump’s plan to impose a 50 percent tariff on all imports from Brazil starting next month would drive up the price of coffee, whether it’s served in cafes or brewed in the kitchen.
Such a tariff would put more pressure on the coffee industry as prices have peaked globally this year. Droughts in Brazil and Vietnam, two of the biggest coffee exporters to the United States, have resulted in smaller harvests in recent seasons, driving up prices.
Brazil accounted last year for more than 8.1 million bags, each with 60 kilograms of coffee, that came into the United States. Any sudden shift would be a “lose-lose situation,” said Guilherme Morya, a coffee analyst for Rabobank based in São Paulo.
Should the new 50 percent tariffs take effect, “we’re going to see a reshape in the coffee flow in the world,” Mr. Morya said. “Especially Brazil to other regions.”
If wholesale costs — what restaurant chains or grocery stores pay — for coffee rise by 50 percent, that could translate to an increase of 25 cents a cup within three months, said Ryan Cummings, the chief of staff for the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
It would take about three months after the tariff goes into effect for consumers to see higher prices at stores, he said.
Other suppliers would be unlikely to match Brazil’s robust output, including Vietnam, which has seen a recent decline in its coffee production. The country would not be able, in the short- or medium term, “to stem the flow,” said David Gantz, an economist at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy.
In Brazil, “some of the exports will probably cease entirely,” Mr. Gantz added. “Others will continue, but the consumer will end up paying a higher price.”
Coffee must be grown under the right conditions. It grows best at higher altitudes, in places with tropical temperatures and heavy rainfall. In the United States and its territories, that’s limited to Hawaii and Puerto Rico.
The United States last year produced a small fraction of the coffee consumed by Americans — 11,462 metric tons — and nearly all of it in Hawaii. Hawaii’s coffee is mostly a specialty product and costs two or three times even high-quality imported beans.
Political Scapegoat
The Wall Street Journal says U.S. tariffs will give Lula a scapegoat for his own fiscal mismanagement.
If both sides carry through on their threats, a trade war is on between the two largest countries in the Western Hemisphere. Lucas Ferraz, a former Brazilian secretary of foreign trade, estimates that the new tariffs could spark a 75% drop in Brazilian exports to the U.S. But it won’t be a party for American businesses either. Brazilian commodities fuel American consumption and production. Notwithstanding Mr. Trump’s assertions to the contrary, the U.S. has a trade surplus with Brazil. American exporters, particularly industrial manufacturers, will be harmed if they lose market access to this huge middle-income economy.
Both sides have incentives to continue trading, and at some point we’re likely to hear of “negotiations.” Lula said Thursday that he would form a committee of business leaders to reconsider trade policy with the U.S. But he also expressed indignation at Mr. Trump’s demands and wrapped himself in the Brazilian flag. He now has someone to blame for the fiscal and economic crisis that was already under way.
The sharp tariff hike on Brazil is a reminder of another use Mr. Trump has for tariffs: They’re a way to settle scores, geopolitical and personal. A U.S. court has already said he doesn’t have such power but, under a stay, he continues to wield it.
Mr. Trump’s letter listed two other grievances besides the phantom trade deficit. The first is the looming trial of Brazil’s former President Jair Bolsonaro and his allies for allegedly plotting a coup against Lula. Mr. Trump thinks it mirrors his own struggle against lawfare.
A possible provocation behind the Trump tariff blast was last week’s 17th summit of the Brics block of nations—Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa—held in Rio de Janeiro. Lula’s statements there, calling for the Brics to work to reduce the role of the dollar in the world, seem to have irritated Mr. Trump. Until now he’s wanted a weaker greenback. But midweek he noted the dump-the-dollar ambition of the nonaligned countries and warned, “I can play that game too.”
The deterioration of democratic norms in Brazil is alarming. So is Lula’s coziness with China. But the Trump 50% tariff is likely to make matters worse. It undermines U.S. leadership authority because it violates its commitments at the World Trade Organization and it creates greater space for Beijing. In a nation that has long mistrusted U.S. hegemony in the region and used it as an excuse for protectionism, it also risks strengthening Lula’s hand at home.
Conflicting Goals Once Again
Once again, we see Trump’s messy conflicting goals.
He wants a weaker dollar to increase exports, but heaven help any country that says that.
More importantly, Trump would rather extract political revenge than have lower prices in the US.
Trump wants to collect revenues from tariffs while simultaneously demanding countries produce in the US.
Given the US is a high-cost produce due to union contracts and minimum wages, the result is higher prices either way.
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Already underway?
In isolation, coffee is no big deal. But it’s not just coffee. It shoes, coffee, orange juice, iPhones, clothes, steel, copper, aluminum, literally 100 percent of imports.
99 percent of the US, if not greater, does not give a damn about Brazilian politics.
However, Trump seems poised to continue with economic madness until the market slaps him silly. But next time, TACO Trump tariff pullbacks might not calm the market.
Kanishka Sharma is teaching Shaolin Chinese monks fighting techniques. He trains young people and upgrade police fighting skills. Subduing bad guys with Shaolin is better than shooting them with tasers or guns.
giving the guy who likes hammers a bigger hammer to play with…
500% tariffs
“They’re going to pass a very major and very biting sanctions bill, but it’s up to the president as to whether or not he wants to exercise it,” Trump told broadcaster NBC.
Asked during a cabinet meeting about his interest in the bill, Trump said: “I’m looking at it very strongly.”
“This congressional package that we’re looking at would give President Trump the ability to impose 500% tariffs on any country that helps Russia,” said Graham, adding that those could include economies that purchase Russian goods like China, India or Brazil.
“This is truly a sledgehammer available to President Trump to end this war,” said Graham.
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250713-us-senators-aim-to-arm-trump-with-sledgehammer-sanctions-against-russia
So….if Brazil imports any Russian products, our coffee and orange juice are going to be tariffed 500%, on top of the other tariff on Brazil?
500% tariffs are weak, how about 50,000% tariffs? All those extra zeroes prove how mighty Trump is. Don’t make him enact 5,000,000% tariffs!!
The Resnicks are CA biggest land owners (about 180K acres). They grow pom red grenades, Wonderful pistachios, almonds, Halo mandarins and POM juice, which is loaded with sugar. POM extract is a CSC killer. The largest farmers in the US are Bill Gates and the Resnicks, The gov sacked the Resnicks for pharma and bc they are Resnicks. The Resnicks cut billions from John Hopkins cancer research.
Yes, CANCER RESEARCH resulted in Chemo and Radiation therapy that JUST KILLED MY LEAD GUITAR PLAYER (best player ever, I dropped out of my Band due to his passing away – – I DEEPLY saddened by his death).
They performed CHEMO for over a year.
Then, they declared him (almost) free of Cancerous tumors.
A week later, after over a year of Chemo, they found tumors in his Kidneys. Metastasized. I had just “BRO SHOOK HIS RIGHT HAND” while he was in his bed and we both Cried together. “I will not Give up!” were his last words. He died anyway.
His wife is in a Daze. I am playing my guitar and singing for his Memorial on the 27th. I am not sure I can do it.
———–PROGRESS!—————
My Grandma died from Cancer and CHEMO when I was 10 years old in the 1960’s.
I watched her Hair Fall out day to day, then they stuck tubes into her Stomach to remove the Blood from her system and she died a HORRIBLE DEATH, nearly Killing my Own Mom.
We have not come anywhere in over 65 years or more.
That people gave this a thumbs down to this extent is a good indicator of how many people here have no understanding of what is occurring in CA.
Americans can do without coffee, for the cause.
If only we could say the same about those rare earth metals and other commodity metals.
Do without coffee? That is just short of blasphemous. I think we are about to appreciate how fickle Americans can be.
Thanks for speaking for all Americans.
We live in Southern Europe half time and I do not know a Single Local that does NOT drink coffee (heading to work, the Local Tascas are full of Men and women Drinking Cafe com Leite’s)…in Spain and Greece, it is common to see locals and my friends there drinking Cafe Con Leche at 4pm. NOPE, it is not American to drink Coffee after 2pm unless they are truly addicted. EUROPE is another dimension in Coffee consumption.
what cause? massaging the dip***ts ego?
Even my Die-Hard obnoxious RED FRIENDS and FAMILY are getting nervous but they will never turn on Mr. T.
I wouldn’t kill for many things, but coffee is on that short list
Cry havoc! And let slip the dogs of war!
Seriously, Trump is asking for a revolution.
People will give up other habits or cut back. Possibly Alcohol, and substances like Donuts.
You know, the shit that kills us.
That is just an ignorant statement with no consideration of the consequences.
“The U.S. coffee industry is a massive and growing sector, contributing significantly to the nation’s economy and providing millions of jobs. In 2022, the industry’s economic impact reached $343.2 billion, with over 2.2 million jobs and $100 billion in wages, according to the National Coffee Association (NCA). Consumers spend over $110 billion annually on coffee products. “
We can do without all sorts of things. As can you. Lead by example.
“Coffee makes me nervous”
me too !
Yeah, I can stop and just drink Green Tea with a shot of Grappa.
Skecher for $50 and Crocs for $40 instead of Nike for $150. FACO NKE: down from $170 to $50. Starbucks doing nothing since July 2019. The mag10 closed their doors after Gavin raised the min wage to $20.
Closeout / Sale works, too. I don’t buy from The Evil Empire Swoosh.
After “Born to Run” I bought flex sole Skechers with laces for $60. They no longer make them. No NKE after Kaepernick. My son likes stiff carbon running shoes. I run barefoot on carpet.
I wear wingtips on the beach. Like Richard Nixon with Bebe Rebozo.
LOL. Do you polish them up before you put on the White Socks? Askin’ for a friend.
Good for you, Avery2.
“Unlike gold, silver, or copper, storage and spoilage are big issues for coffee.”
And the same is true for orange juice, soybeans, wheat, corn, pork bellies…
There is a good reason why gold (and to a large extent, silver) was chosen to be THE commodity that could be used as money when compared to the above.
If money were made of iron and could be converted into knives, axes and chisels there would be some sense in placing a value on it; but as it is, I see none. If a man has more yams than he wants, let him exchange some of them away for pork. […] Certainly money is much handier and more convenient but then, as it will not spoil by being kept, people will store it up instead of sharing it out as a chief ought to do, and thus become selfish. […] I understand now very well what it is that makes the papālangi [white men] so selfish — it is this money !
Soon, even the smallest latte in Starbucks (which is called “Tall”, btw!) would cost more than $12…
Aldi’s instant is up to $4.29 for 8 oz. It was $2.79 six years ago.
Over the past few months, I have been noticing a 15% to 25% increase in the prices of many of the items that I buy from Trader Joe’s.
But, but, Price inflation is at 2.7%!
Now let’s do Sam’s club paper towels & TP. I used to get paper towels with a $14 handle; TP with a $16 handle. Last week, paper towels $19.98, TP $24.26.
WOW. Even the Canned Columbian Dark roast at Costco nearly DOUBLED.
It’s amazing to me people will sit in a drive thru line waiting for substandard coffee. Talk about a mindf**k.
Lula, an increasingly unpopular spendthrift left-wing demagogue, could not have asked for a greater gift from the US than this defacto trade embargo.
He can now put every bad economic news coming forward on Trump. This also helped unify the nation, as even most of his right-wing opponents oppose the US meddling on Brazil’s internal affairs.
Xi also sends his thanks to the US.
This is Trump playing 5D chess.
Lula is little more than milquetoast left-wing in terms of policies. He has continued many of the privatization and other policies from the previous admin.
I hear the Brazilians are rallying around the flag, meaning they now think Lula is the great one (😢). I don’t understand why Trump doesn’t get it that the rest of the world abhors him.
Big beautiful 10D Chess. Soon to be 20D. Inflation!
The mag10: McDonalds, DD, Starbucks, Chic, Wendy, Burger…kill people (and
small businesses) all over the world. They caused heart attacks and cancer. COGS of a medium cup of coffee is about 20/25 cents. F**k them. Dump one inch of fresh ginger into boiling green tea with lemon. For 25 cents u get the best anti “Cancer Stem Cells” killer, Heated gingerol becomes shogaol. Shogaol kills CSC. Pharma kill cancer cells and normal cells.. They don’t kill cancer stem cells, which are worse. F**k the mag10, the mag7 and pharma.
Chop the shogaol to small pcs and dump them in Chobani yogurt.
Ginger and green tea, huh? Well… Great idea, other than the fact that ginger is imported from China, Peru, Brazil, India… and green tea is imported from China, Japan, Sri Lanka…
Lmao it just wouldn’t be a mish comment section without a little game of “are you smarter than a fifth grader” starring Michael Engel.
toughen up that thin skin and you’ll feel better.
How about spirits of elderflower?
These Pavlov dogs idiots, instead of thanking me for the tips, they bark
on Mish.
I thank you for the Shogaol tip. Coffee also has good antioxidants- but only if it’s black. Cream negates them.
Yep. Coffee is good for you.
1. Rich in Antioxidants: Coffee is a major source of antioxidants in many people’s diets, helping to protect cells from damage and reduce inflammation.
2. Reduced Risk of Diseases:
Type 2 Diabetes:
Coffee consumption has been linked to a lower risk of developing type 2 diabetes.
Parkinson’s Disease:
Some studies suggest that coffee may help reduce the risk of Parkinson’s disease and improve movement in those who have it.
Liver Problems:
Coffee can help protect the liver from diseases like cirrhosis and liver cancer.
Cardiovascular Disease:
Moderate coffee consumption has been associated with a lower risk of heart failure and stroke.
Certain Cancers:
Some research indicates a potential link between coffee and a reduced risk of cancers of the mouth, throat, and digestive system.
Alzheimer’s Disease:
Coffee may offer some protection against developing Alzheimer’s disease.
3. Improved Physical and Mental Performance:
Increased Energy and Alertness: Caffeine in coffee can improve focus, alertness, and physical performance.
Enhanced Mood: Coffee consumption can improve mood and may reduce the risk of depression.
4. Other Potential Benefits:
Weight Management:
Coffee may help with weight management by influencing fat storage and supporting gut health.
Improved Memory:
Some studies suggest that coffee, or certain compounds in it, can improve both short-term and long-term memory.
Reduced Risk of Early Death:
Studies have shown that moderate coffee consumption may be associated with a lower risk of early death.
PD – This is exactly why we need to grow coffee in North Dakota rather than depend on unreliable Brazil.
Yes. It is a security AND health issue. If we could get all Americans to drink more coffee (including children) we could probably save a bundle on pharmaceuticals as well.
Coffee is already being grown in California and Florida. California is especially good for coffee.
Unfortunately, at about $90-100/lb (https://frinjcoffee.com/) vs $6-10 (Costco random roasted bags). Not an viable option.
I buy two senior MCD coffees black with little ice for about about $2. Nothing else. I drink a little and put them in the fridge for the next 2/3 days. These ladies work very hard and under constant pressure. No tips. Most of them are obese. Visceral fat. Coffee makes me jitter. It releases adrenaline (epinephrine) and cortisol. A few Grande coffees cause arrythmia, palpilations. Cardios love SBUX. They install pacemakers. They love the Mag10. They install stents.
I used Elderberry. Ginger is a stronger breast, leukemia …CSC killer than turmeric curcumin, cinnamon and black pepper. All the above might cause side effects. Ginger, POM extract, fresh EVOO from Spain, with fruits, vegetables, mackerels and sardines, which cost little, and 20/30 min daily exercise, can keep your brain fresh.
While it is highly questionable as to what, if any, the eventual tariff will be, Taco is probably looking where he can get more bang for the buck.
However, the primary reason taco gave for the higher tariff is sheer nonsense.
I am going to agree with the MAGA cult here. The US should be self-sufficient in all things, including coffee. 50% tariffs on coffee will spur more US production. It’s a matter of national security. Bring us to the Golden Age.
I agree. And the White House garden looks like a perfect place for a coffee plantation. We may need some illegals to work it, but who cares about such details? And maybe it’s possible to even grow Arabica there given climate change (which, obviously, is a hoax).
Yes. And Trump can bag and brand it. He could even add Ivermectin and pitch it as a natural cure for cancer, diabetes, heart disease and low IQ. I anticipate huge sales to the Maga faithful.
Plantation? Illegals?
We already have lots of people with plantation worker heritage, no?
They could grow it in that garden that’s on the White House roof.
I hear that coffee grows well in Iowa and in the Dakotas. Orange trees and bananas too.
This is going to be great.
You heard that too?
I also heard the plan is giant domes in Bismarck, North Dakota.
Isn’t that considered Canada?
No we were going to trade useless Montana to Canada in a one-for- one swap for Alberta.
Canada refused the trade.
I think we should go to war.
Do you think we’d have a chance? It’s by no means certain.
I don’t know self sufficient or not but higher price is a sure thing.
You really need to research the growing conditions needed and time to harvest before making these statements.
Puerto Rico is about 5,300 sq miles. If we bulldoze the island and squeeze everyone into 590 sq miles (at the coast) we can plant coffee trees on the rest and wait 4 yrs for our first reduced harvest…
Great information. Thanks.
I wonder if Trump will mind if he bulldozers most of Puerto Rico in order to grow coffee? Probably not. He was going to bulldoze all of Gaza for resorts.