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Year-Over-Year Producer Price Inflation Is the Lowest Since January 2021

Producer Price Index (PPI) data from BLS, chart by Mish

Producer Price Index Details 

  • The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.2 percent in April, seasonally adjusted.
  • On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.3 percent for the 12 months ended in April.
  • In April, 80 percent of the rise in the index for final demand is attributable to a 0.3-percent increase in prices for final demand services. 
  • The index for final demand goods advanced 0.2 percent.
  • Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.2 percent in April after inching up 0.1 percent in March. 
  • For the 12 months ended in April, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 3.4 percent. 

Producer Price Index Month-Over-Month

Producer Price Index (PPI) data from BLS, chart by Mish

Final Demand Goods

  • Prices for final demand goods increased 0.2 percent in April after falling 1.0 percent in March. Leading the advance, the index for final demand energy rose 0.8 percent. 
  • Prices for final demand goods less foods and energy moved up 0.2 percent. In contrast, the index for final demand foods decreased 0.5 percent. 
  • An 8.4-percent advance in prices for gasoline was a major factor in the April increase in the index for final demand goods
  • Prices for fresh and dry vegetables, carbon steel scrap, plastic resins and materials, aircraft and aircraft equipment, and fluid power equipment also moved higher.
  • The index for chicken eggs dropped 37.9 percent. Prices for jet fuel and for light motor trucks declined. 

Final Demand Services

  • Prices for final demand services moved up 0.3 percent in April, the largest increase since a 0.4-percent rise in November 2022.
  • Over one-third of the April advance in the index for final demand services can be traced to a 4.1-percent rise in prices for portfolio management.
  • Margins for final demand trade services increased 0.5 percent.
  • The index for final demand transportation and warehousing services decreased 1.7 percent.
  • Prices for long-distance motor carrying declined 2.3 percent.
  • The indexes for food and alcohol wholesaling, outpatient care (partial), loan services (partial), hospital inpatient care, and guestroom rental moved higher.
  • The indexes for food retailing and for securities brokerage, dealing, and investment fell.

Pay attention falling PPI for trucking despite a big jump in the cost of energy. This indicates a falling demand for goods.

Initial Unemployment Claims Jump the Most Since October of 2021

The number of initial and continued claims are low historically. However, shifts up from major lows are recession signals.

The number of continued claims is now well above the post- and pre-Covid lows.

For discussion, please see Initial Unemployment Claims Jump the Most Since October of 2021

This post originated at MishTalk.Com

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12 Comments
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Counter
Counter
3 years ago
notice oil was down at the time
jivefive98
jivefive98
3 years ago
Its 98% all about energy. Smaller energy inputs = lower price increases. 1970s all over again (sort of).
Robbyrob
Robbyrob
3 years ago
‘We buy ugly houses’ is code for ‘we steal vulnerable peoples’ homes’
ColoradoAccountant
ColoradoAccountant
3 years ago
In the short-term, commodity prices are coming down from last years run up. However, the rest of the world is looking to back their currencies with commodities, and not dollars. Biden proposes another huge budget deficit, after seizing Russia’s dollar reserves. The budget deficit is always less than the increase in the debt. That is because a large portion of the government is not in the budget, but is in deficit. I can’t find a flaw in the desire to dump the dollar and go long commodities by other countries.
Directed Energy
Directed Energy
3 years ago
Businesses can charge whatever they want, but people can only pay whatever money they have. Eventually prices are too high, no one buys, competition begins and prices come down.
TechLover
TechLover
3 years ago
Stagflation is a real possibility. That will be ugly because Fed will have to force a super hard landing to fix that.
garryl44
garryl44
3 years ago
It’s probably Biden’s fault
Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  garryl44
Biden once bit my sister while Hunter watched.
vanderlyn
vanderlyn
3 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
these are pious men, aunt lydia, they need their kinks. hat tip hand maid tale
8dots
8dots
3 years ago
BCD weekly, Bloomberg commodity : Backbone #1 : May 10/17 2021, 30.54/29.27. // BB #2 : Mar 7/14 2022, 40.67/ 35.85.
BCD might drop to BB#1 for fun. China export/ import are down.
Salmo Trutta
Salmo Trutta
3 years ago
I was looking at:
GSCI Commodity Index – 2023 Data – 1969-2022 Historical – 2024 Forecast – Price (tradingeconomics.com)
and
CRB Commodity Index – 2023 Data – 1994-2022 Historical – 2024 Forecast – Price – Quote (tradingeconomics.com)
Both are in downtrends. But they are way above the 2016-2019 levels. The tulips have blossomed and haven’t wilted yet.
vanderlyn
vanderlyn
3 years ago
Reply to  Salmo Trutta
like most things it’s cumulative and compounded. PPI way up past 5 years. stagflation is ugly. thank heavens we have lots of jobs. i’m old enough to remember when nyc had 20% unemployment when i graduated HS and college. during stagflation. i had to supplement my beer and weed money by punting at the racetracks……….

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