Initial Claims
In the week ending May 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 264,000, an increase of 22,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 242,000. This is the highest level for initial claims since October 30, 2021 when it was 264,000.
Initial Claims 4-Week Moving Average
The 4-week moving average was 245,250, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 239,250. This is the highest level for this average since November 20, 2021 when it was 249,250.
Continued Claims
The number of continued claims rose slightly from 1,801,000 to 1,813,000.
Continued Claims 4-Week Moving Average
The 4-week average of continued claims rose slightly from 1,827,250 to 1,829,500.
The number of initial and continued claims are low historically. However, shifts up from major lows are recession signals.
The number of continued claims is now well above the post- and pre-Covid lows.
What to Expect
The Covid recession was both amazingly steep and a record low in duration, lasting only two months.
For this recession, I expect the opposite, a long period of general weakness in or near recession, with a minimal rise in the unemployment rate.
Demographically Sobering Thoughts on US Employment in the Next Five Years
For a discussion of how demographics factors into employment and unemployment, please see Demographically Sobering Thoughts on US Employment in the Next Five Years
This post originated at MishTalk.Com
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Mish
Consumer inflation weakened to a two-year low of 0.1% in April, the National Bureau of Statistics said Thursday, as food and energy costs eased. The figures were partly affected by the base of comparison from last year. Producer prices fell 3.6%, largely due to lower commodity costs.
Separately, data from the People’s Bank of China showed credit and new loans were much worse than expected in April as consumers and businesses curbed their borrowing.
“China’s credit data came in well below estimates, reinforcing the concerns over the sustainability of post-Covid recovery,” said Zhou Hao, chief economist at Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd. Overall growth momentum “has been slowing significantly,” he said.
had applied for unemployment insurance (UI) benefits”
again I live in the West Palm area which is urban and no where near
where the massive agricultural farms are (mostly north of Lake
Okeechobee). There is plenty of local construction going on (roads, buildings etc).
“Many workers are leaving, thinking they’re going to be deported, so they’re going to other states,” says Jose, an employee. “Everyone is really uneasy…we just want to work to help our families.”