Alleged Yemen Invasion
Juan Cole reports Yemen’s Houthis Say they Invaded Saudi Arabia, Captured Thousands of Troops in Najran.
Yemen is an informational black hole in which all sorts of allegations are made that later turn out to be bunkum. So no one who knows the place would want to take at face value a breathless news release from the Helpers of God movement in Sana’a, otherwise known as the Houthis. We do not have any confirmation yet, and although reporters asked the Saudis to respond, Riyadh is mum.
The Houthi spokesman said that the movement had been infiltrating Najran province for some months, and finally sprang the encirclement of the Saudi military facilities, from which they also captured large numbers of weapons.
If the Houthi claims are even partially true, it underlines the weakness of Saudi security yet again, in the wake of the drone attacks on their Abqaiq petroleum processing plant in the Eastern Province, which initially knocked out about half of their petroleum exports.
As Human Rights Watch noted, Najran province, like the Eastern Province, has a Shiite majority, but these are Ismaili Shiites. Of the province’s some 600,000 inhabitants, perhaps 400,000 are Ismailis. They had been relatively loyal to Saudi Arabia and had fought the Houthis, despite Saudi Wahhabi animus against Shiites. I’m just wondering, though, if the long Yemen war on their doorstep has disillusioned them. It is just speculation, but I’m thinking the Houthis couldn’t have infiltrated Najran unless the locals had averted their eyes.
The Houthis also claimed that attack on Abqaiq, though they said that they had local help. The forensics that became public suggests that the drones were launched from within the Eastern Province, where Shiite Muslims with a history of restiveness under Wahhabi rule predominate. Saudi Arabia is about 40% Wahhabi, but that branch of Islam is the state religion. Saudi Wahhabis are more puritanical and rigid than most other forms of Islam (and even than the much more tolerant Qatari Wahhabis), and they have a special disdain for Shiite Islam, which predominates in Iraq and Iran. Although the US and some European states have blamed Iran, the likelihood is that the weapons were launched from within the kingdom, not from Iran itself, though they might be Iranian manufacture.
Conflicting Stories on Yemen Invasion
Juan Cole picked up the story from the BBC and like the BBC has severe doubts on the accuracy.
Cole does make this pertinent evaluation “If the story is true, it is a huge development in the war and an enormous blow to Saudi security.“
The BBC reports Houthi Rebels Video Fails to Prove Saudi Troop Capture Claim.
On Saturday, a Houthi spokesman said three Saudi brigades had surrendered near the Saudi town of Najran. The video shows an attack on armoured vehicles, but there is so far no verification of the Houthi claim of a major military success.
Colonel Yahiya Sarea alleged on Saturday that Saudi forces had suffered “huge losses in life and machinery”, including “thousands” of its troops. All those captured would be paraded on the Houthi-run Al Masirah TV network, he said.
But the video broadcast on Sunday instead shows what appear to be rebels firing at vehicles on a road. This is followed by footage of several burnt-out vehicles, as well as assorted light weaponry laid out on the ground and a group of men not in military uniforms marching down a dirt road.
Story True?
Who knows? I don’t. The story could be anywhere from the complete truth, to exaggeration, to a blatant lie.
Perfect Solution
Let’s get down to the real nitty gritty.
We attacked Iraq after 911 because “Iraq was rich in targets”
The US overthrow of Saddam Hussein, a secular leader, led to the formation of ISIS and a pro-Iran government in Iraq.
It doesn’t matter what version of the Yemen story is correct because one look at the lead-in map provides the obvious perfect solution.
Invade Australia
The US should invade Australia.
After all, Australia has plenty of targets including nice reserves of copper, gold, and other metals.
Canada also has nice looking targets but Canada is too close for involvement.
We need to stop Australia over there, before Australia comes here.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
We must put those evil opal mines out of business!
I could care less about Saudi. Until oil prices rise.
We’ve poured billions into NASA for decades now. I think it’s time we demanded a payoff. Let’s lay plans to invade an exoplanet. Invading continents is trite; it’s been done, repeatedly.
Unfortunately, Canada is already here, so attacking Canada is simply too late.
We need to stop them over there.
No to mention, the weather in Canada is too cold most of the year. Aussi is way too hot. New Zealand has better weather.
Plus NZ lamb is really tasty. Piss off PETA and have a nice war to boot.
I’m very doubtful something on this scale could go down without a lot of hell being raised in real time.
I support the Australian invasion, but make it New Zealand; There’s more bodies. Yes, they’re sheep, but Vietnam taught us it’s all about body count.
The first choice to bomb would be Denmark, because it doesn’t want to give up Greenland. Anyways, when this economic mirage cannot be maintained any longer, and the masses become restless, someone somewhere will get bombed.
The US needs Greenland as a barrier to stop Soviet subs…. I mean Russian subs. Got to go update the ol’ war manuals!
But Denmark (and all of EU) now gets its energy from Russian natural gas pipelines, so they aren’t playing by old NATO rules anymore.
Obama tried to loot Ukraine’s economy like it was a Chicago ward, and dropped the ball on controlling Europe’s energy supply. Obama and Biden and his possie got rich, but the military didn’t get a war.
I am not sure Mish grasps the longevity of shale oil deposits (hint: its really really short). This oil “independence” is a fleeting thing, even if we ignore how much “US independence” just comes from outside the middle east.
Especially after the peak of North Sea oil fields, the UK is once again dependent on Iranian oil for their energy needs. Europe is now much more dependent on Russian natgas. As with many things in life, people and countries “make friends” with the suppliers they need for survival. Europe’s need for energy is dominating the idealism of NATO, and this was the case more than a decade before Trump made it official.
The Saudi’s are selling more oil to China than to the USA. Remember how the USA outsourced our factories to China? Well, we outsourced energy demand of those factories too. China doesn’t have the military ability to protect Saudi Arabia.
No matter how big Trump’s ego is (YUGE! copyright 2016, 2020 Trump for Pres) he has to play the cards he was dealt. The UK must cozy up to Iran because the north sea oil fields peaked a decade ago. Europe must cozy up to Russia because it is the cheapest source of natgas for Europe. Nothing any US president does will change this.
The demand for Saudi oil shifted to China along with US factories, and Saudi policy has to shift with it. Unfortunately for the Saudis, Chinese military policy does not have to shift.
The Houthis are probably lying about most everything, but for now they are a useful pawn that Iran can use to aggravate the Saudis. Other than that, the Houthis don’t matter
Since I didn’t spell it out explicitly, and many commenters here are a little slow, I understand why Washington DC THINKS it should stick with Saudis (shale oil is temporary, etc).
But if the same money was spent on changing energy demand patterns in the USA, instead of another military mis-adventure…. that would be putting America first.
Phantom loads on household appliances, especially cable TV boxes, is ridiculous. Do more light bulb trade-ins, swapping whatever for LED bulbs. Two easy ones.
Improve home insulation. Develop more efficient A/C and home heating (offices too) — the tech is there, the cost of installing it is crazy.
Stop wasting money on stupid feel good initiatives like solar. Elon Musk doesn’t need the money, and solar doesn’t make sense outside of FL, TX, AZ, NM and southern CA.
There will be plenty of other unnecessary wars for the US to consider in the future, we don’t have to jump at this one
“We need to stop Australia over there, before Australia comes here.” Vietnam redux.
Congratulations, you got it.
Poor Saudis! Looks like their American benefactor has his tiny hands full trying to keep himself out of jail. Perhaps if they crash a few more airliners into New York skyscrapers….
re: “The US overthrow of Saddam Hussein, a secular leader, led to the formation of ISIS and a pro-Iran government in Iraq.”
For those not interested in a religious perspective, just skip this post.
Among Christians, there are four different interpretations of revelation: Preterist=it already happened in 70AD, Futurist=it will all happen in the future, Idealist=It is simply statements of things that are always true, and is not actually specific prophecies, and Historicist=it is a series of prophecies that have been fulfilled gradually throughout history. Long ago the most common view was historicism. These days liberal churches tend to be idealists while the fundamentalist churches seem to be mostly futurists, and look forward to a rapture and tribulation. I believe that Missouri Synod Lutherans and 7th Day Adventists are Historicists.
Why I mention all this is that, for those that hold the historicist view, what happened in Iraq was inevitable, and was simply the final fulfillment of the prophecy in Revelation 16:12 “The sixth angel poured out his bowl on the great river Euphrates, and its water was dried up to prepare the way for the kings from the East.” The river is a metaphor for the political area around the river, while “The East” refers to Persia, now known as Iran. For a very long time, the Ottoman Empire, and then Iraq, served as a buffer, separating “The East” from the middle east. The beginning of the fulfillment was the fall of the Ottoman Empire, and the final fulfillment was the fall of Iran. Now, that buffer is gone, and the area around the Euphrates is slowly moving into alignment with Iran, making the way clear for the “Kings of the East” to march to the middle East, should they choose to do so.
So, with that prophecy fulfilled, what comes next for the historicist? Revelation 16:13-14 is “Then I saw three impure spirits that looked like frogs; they came out of the mouth of the dragon, out of the mouth of the beast and out of the mouth of the false prophet. They are demonic spirits that perform signs, and they go out to the kings of the whole world, to gather them for the battle on the great day of God Almighty.”
To aid in interpreting this, the current historicist view is that the Dragon is the EU, the beast is the Catholic Church, and the false prophet is Islam. Thus, I gather this refers to some strange political times, which will ultimately lead us towards world war. By the time you get to 16:16 you are at Armegeddon, and 16:18 certainly sounds like a nuclear war.
The good news is that each historicist prophecy has tended to take a couple hundred years to fulfill, so even if the historicists are right, there may be awhile yet before said nuclear war, but one never knows. And, of course, the historicists could be wrong. Historicists who have tried to predict a specific date for the end times have always been wrong.
“Australia doesn’t have energy and control of the Straits of Hormuz. So that won’t help.”
Such short-sighted answers
If Australia doesn’t work we need to go after Greenland and New Zealand. The latter has a lot of sheep. Without energy we will need more wool.
So happy to see these postings from you Mish, especially in light of the early days when you had links to Michelle Malkin & others’ propaganda.
Clearly if you gain control of Australia you can control the Torres Strait and you have a strategic stepping off point to Antarctica! (not forgetting New Zealand)!!
Specially Greenland. With all that ice melting, its a potential weapon of mass destruction! 🙂
Trump, after three years in office, has invaded a grand total of zero places.
Saudi ground troops are terrible. Many hired mercenaries. No suprise there.
But one of his countless but never delivered on campaign promises were to end these never ending wars and to bring back our troops. Also, that KSA would have to spend ‘billions’ for US’ military services. Yet another failed promise. Don’t forget that Trumpty also accused KSA of Blind/11 yet here we are kissing their asses, drooling on ourselves waiting for the command to invade.
> Blind/11
Could you explain this one?
Yes Donald has lots of good ideas. The dems, the swamp and the MIC have been very effective at stopping him from being able to do them.
I got a much better idea: invade ourselves. Drop our bikes on US. That way the rest of the world can live in peace.
Excellent book! It goes deeper than just its title. And should be on the list of reads if one is to understand the complexity of this region: https://www.amazon.com/Islam-Nazi-Germanys-David-Motadel/dp/0674724607/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=islam+and+the+nazis&qid=1569789683&sr=8-1
The top map looks silly claiming that Israel is “non-aligned”. They are most definitely part of the US-Saudi axis.
Have to hand it to the Houthis for fighting this well after four and a half years of bombardment. They seem to think they have the upper hand and they’re probably right.
For practical purposes they are US-KSA aligned or rather they align their dogs, USA & KSA, but in actuality they are only aligned with themselves.
Remember how fierce the N. Vietcong got after years of getting bombed by the US, they also did a number on the Chinese who didn’t realize who they were screwing with when they tried to annex a chunk of N Vietnam. The Houthis very well might be getting better militarily, getting tons of recruits whom are pissed off about getting bombed.
Australia doesn’t have energy and control of the Straits of Hormuz. So that won’t help.
The Aussies are running their country into the ground faster than the US, UK, and Canada. They are only being outdone by New Zealand. Besides, the US already has the only thing Aussie worth having, Olivia Newton John.
I have seen numerous tweets from an assortment of anti-Saudi tweeters. The numbers killed or captured are in the hundreds with plenty of videos/pics.
According to one, “[m]ost of those captured are actually Yemenis paid by Saudis to defend southern border.” Other tweets say the Saudis bombed some of those who surrendered, so the ‘paid Yemenis’ tweet may be accurate. However, it does appear that the Yemenis killed many Saudi soldiers and destroyed or captured Saudi arms.
Whatever the exact truth is, Saudi Arabia appears to be very weak and will be unable to make the claim that Iran did this. Hopefully, it destroys the narrative drawn up to start another war (with Iran).
Is the news from the Houthis true when western msm is reluctant to confirm ? that’s easy. My experience has been that most foreign news from western msm is deliberately wrong or twisted. Therefore in this case, would bet the news that the Saudis suffer a big defeat is true. This “American Pravda” behavior of western msm has been going on for years, no idea why few recognize it for what it is.
“To maintain his rule, King Abdul Aziz had to show the people of Saudi Arabia, in material ways, that they were his subjects. Without the funds to do so, his rule would crumble.”
― Ellen R. Wald, Saudi, Inc.: The Arabian Kingdom’s Pursuit of Profit and Power