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Your TV Ford Man Explains What’s About to Happen to Home Prices

Immediate Discounts!

Key Points

  • Immediate discounts
  • Everything must be sold regardless of price
  • Take your choice
  • Sacrificed below cost

I saw commercials like those every time I watched a CUBS game on channel 9. 

Other notable ads I remember: Maydays are Heydays, We’re Jammed Up in June, We Go All Out in August. Yes, I remember an amazing amount of totally stupid stuff. 

OK, let’s return to the present.

Home Sellers in Migration Hotspots Increasingly Turn to Price Drops

Redfin reports Home Sellers in Migration Hotspots Increasingly Turn to Price Drops.

“Many places like Boise or Sacramento that saw a surge in migration and a sharp increase in home prices over the past two years have now seen an abrupt drop-off in demand, leading sellers to drop their prices with increasing frequency,” said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather. “When mortgage rates were at or below 3%, both local and out-of-town homebuyers were more willing and able to tolerate high prices, but at 5%, many are now priced out. A home’s price is driven by the balance of supply and demand, and when demand drops off and supply increases like it is now, rapid price increases evaporate quickly.”

More than 20% of home sellers dropped their price in April in seven of the 10 most popular April migration destinations (Cape Coral, FL; Sacramento; North Port, FL; Tampa, FL; Atlanta, GA; San Antonio, TX and Phoenix). For home sellers in these markets, the sharp increase in mortgage rates has knocked some of the wind out of a housing market that had been super-charged by surging migration.

“Conversations with prospective sellers are longer and more emotional now than they were just a few months ago,” said Boise, ID, Redfin real estate agent Shauna Pendleton. “If your home has been listed for several days with little or no interest from buyers, it’s time to consider dropping the price. If you do have to drop the price, you are far better off doing one large price drop instead of a series of smaller price drops, because a larger number of drops is often interpreted as desperation and encourages buyers to wait even longer or make a lower offer.”

Deep Deep Discounts 

Redfin Housing Data

Click on the link for dozens of cities.

“Deep, Deep Discounts,” said Bert Weinman in most of the TV ads. That will soon apply to houses. 

Buyers Be Patient!

If your home has been listed for several days with little or no interest from buyers, it’s time to consider dropping the price. If you do have to drop the price, you are far better off doing one large price drop instead of a series of smaller price drops, because a larger number of drops is often interpreted as desperation and encourages buyers to wait even longer or make a lower offer,” said Redfin real estate agent Shauna Pendleton.

For the first time in years, buyers need to be patient. 

It’s sellers that need to hurry.  Yet, we have crypto speculation in homes.

Crypto-Pledged Mortgages

A Word About Millennials 

Millennials are not the second coming of boomers.

https://twitter.com/Econimica/status/1528575449906835456

Demographics are not as favorable as most assume. And what about downsizing then retiring boomers?

The Top Is In 

Case-Shiller lags at least 3-4 months so we may see prices climb for a while even though the top is in.

This post originated at MishTalk.Com.

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29 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
ohno
ohno
3 years ago
I had a realtor tell me it’s a great time to sell. I was like then what? Live in my van?
RunnerDan
RunnerDan
3 years ago
The car salesman is nothing compared to “Cal Worthington and his dog Spot!” Big Texan drawl selling cars in Long Beach…
JRM
JRM
3 years ago
Property prices in S OR continue downward!!
Last Tuesday got a an alert that one of the property on my save list had been sold.
Friday property back up for sale, with lower price!!
Johnson1
Johnson1
3 years ago
Some of the stuff I read from Tracy Ryniec I will disagree with. I would not follow her advice.
SleemoG
SleemoG
3 years ago
RE is no monolith. Location matters, as they say. Plus those houses relinquished by boomers may just remain in the family as a rentable asset rather than drive values down.
ohno
ohno
3 years ago
I had the green ford station wagon with wood paneling and a 429. Reminds me of the Beavis and Butthead episode when everyone is looting due to a power outage and Beavis goes “we’re slashing prices! Everything must go!”
Jackula
Jackula
3 years ago
As I’ve noted before on this board my mom took a $175 k hit selling her home in Eagle(Boise area) back in April on a home appraised in Jan for $900 k. Pretty hard hit.
Bam_Man
Bam_Man
3 years ago
The station wagon in the commercial looks like the Griswold’s car from “National Lampoon’s Vacation”.
Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Discount? Pfaugh! STAND AND DELIVER!
8dots
8dots
3 years ago
Case Shiller is a false positive bias : bought in the early 1990’s, after the S&L crisis, at REAL bottom of RE prices, sell today, with few minor adjustments.
honestcreditguy
honestcreditguy
3 years ago
ours is coming online next week in desired part of San Francisco, views of entrance to the bay and the city from front rooms…N train block below, no need for car but has garage, not neighbors behind you…..
RE agent, one of best in California, says no issues here yet. Going full price….
Let the dice rolll
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 years ago
With that kind of location I am sure you are going to get your full asking price (assuming you not asking for the moon).
Incidentally, are you downsizing or moving out of the area? Only curious because obvious if you stay in the area you have to buy someone else’s over priced place unless you plan to rent and hope to buy low later.
I lived for 2 years in the Walnut Creek area in the mid 2000’s and home there were desirable because it was one of the nicer cities in the East Bay area. Liked the area but couldn’t afford homes there even then so I moved to Florida where I could buy a vastly nicer place than anything in Walnut Creek for way less money and have a warm water ocean less than 5 minutes away 🙂
RonJ
RonJ
3 years ago
“…demographic analysis found that GROWTH of Boomers entering prime home buying years was ~4x today’s Millennials”
With, “you will own nothing and be happy,” it shouldn’t be an issue after the Great Reset. The globalists will Build Back Better.
Carl_R
Carl_R
3 years ago
Excellent article, as usual.
Mish
Mish
3 years ago
I just added Two Tweets regarding millennials
Demographics not as favorable as most seem to think.
And dying or downsizing boomers will be adding to supply.
TechLover1
TechLover1
3 years ago
There is a huge tailwind supporting home prices this time around from demographics.
On the other hand, most people buy based on monthly payments (not purchase price) which has been going up in the last few months by shocking amounts.
It will be interesting to see how these two forces shape the housing market.
I believe it will be very different for markets that are dominated by second or vacation homes vs places where people need to live and have their primary residences.
Remote work is going to reverse a bit in the next twelve months. As job market cools, many employers will be in a stronger position to ask employees to work at least three days from office and that will reverse the gains in all these secondary markets where we saw most of the house gains in pandemic era (Boise, Portland and many of the Midwest cities etc). Primary markets lost some people who will return thus supporting pricing in these markets. Younger folks absolutely love to live in large cities because of the social and job opportunity aspects. That will come back with a vengeance in the next year.
honestcreditguy
honestcreditguy
3 years ago
Reply to  TechLover1
rates are backing down, you can get 30 yr now for 4.5%
TNX headed to 2.40-50 to test breakout
Jojo
Jojo
3 years ago
Reply to  TechLover1
“Younger folks absolutely love to live in large cities because of the social and job opportunity aspects”
I disagree. There are certainly a subset of young people who tend to be more extroverted and want to live in the hustle and bustle of large cities but there is a significant majority who do not embrace this lifestyle, who enjoy suburbia, trees and outdoor activities that are not available in large cities.
I grew up in Northern NJ, between 5-30 miles outside NYC. While I went into NYC occasionally for entertainment with friends, I had zero interest in living in that overpriced, concrete jungle. Obviously, the friends i interacted with felt similarly and we enjoyed plenty of entertainment, social and work opportunities in NJ.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
You just lived in greater Greater Manhattan.
Agave
Agave
3 years ago
One thing about living in the SF Bay Area – I’ve seen numerous cycles in housing prices over the past 35-40 years.
I don’t expect a long term bust – it’s just so desirable living here and the draw is strong for newcomers. New housing is expensive and slow to come along. As long as a lot of the high paying industries remain here, housing should be a good bet long term. San Francisco itself has lost population in the pandemic, but a lot of formerly overlooked outlying suburbs have picked up much of that slack in the new work from home frenzy. I’ve never lived in SF itself, but in several places in the east bay and north bay that are so much more relaxed and surrounded with greenery and vast open space parks, yet within easy reach of the city life.
However, I do think this is a time for buyers to pull back. It’s not too hard to see when these cycles are getting close to a top, and they don’t bottom out and turn around on a dime like sometimes stock market pullbacks do. There will still be lots of pockets of significant increases for awhile in the most desirable areas that are not impacted as much by purchasers needing heavy borrowing to buy, but I do notice some price cuts are beginning. One house on my block recently sold at an eye popping level (compared to a few years ago), but I suspect that owner got out right near the bell ring this time.
I know some people who are really good at watching and timing near the bottom of a pullback and then snatching up undervalued property around here, and I suspect some of them are starting the clock again to wait for the next good buying opportunity. I will curiously watch to see if listings in my area pick up soon as sellers realize a local top may be here, but the cost of moving and scarcity of affordable opportunities will also cause a lot of people to stay put, I suspect.
honestcreditguy
honestcreditguy
3 years ago
Reply to  Agave
I’m putting house up for sale in very nice part of the city….I think it sells fast, most likely chinese all cash buyer
Agave
Agave
3 years ago
Prime areas and properties usually don’t have much problem around here. Sounds like you’re probably in one of those.
Jojo
Jojo
3 years ago
Reply to  Agave
I think this time might be different. I don’t know about the north and east bay areas but up and down the Peninsula, there are a huge number of apartments and condos being built. With Section 9, there will be a sharp increase in sub-divides and ADU’s also. If Chinese and Russian cash money slows down or even evaporates, housing prices in the SF Bay Area will plummet.
Agave
Agave
3 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
I do expect a retreat in prices, but not for the long term. Obviously there will be a ceiling at some point, but it’s hard to say where that will land. I think it will become more localized too, in a shift between relatively overpriced and relatively underpriced areas.
There is still a significant deficit of housing being built compared to demand according to what I’ve read, both in the overall Bay Area and California. The peninsula is far more pricey than parts of the east bay and north bay (outside of the exclusive areas of Marin), so I expect the peninsula market will pull back more if the trend towards working from home continues (I think it will in the bay area – techies will demand it or switch jobs), and some people may move from there to the east bay or some north bay areas where comparable properties are cheaper enough to make you notice.
I lived briefly on the peninsula years ago, and spend enough time with friends in family in San Francisco to know what it’s like living there. I like the northern counties and northern east bay much better as a place to live, though it pays to pick the right cities or towns to live in. Close proximity to wine country and the best craft brewpubs in the bay area, closer to Tahoe, still an easy hop into SF, etc. If more techies living on the peninsula who can now work from home were more adventurous, they could do worse than selling their peninsula houses and using the proceeds to buy in the east or north bay, with a windfall to spare. Would help make the peninsula more affordable for newcomers too, between that and the new condos you’re seeing built (I don’t notice as many being built up here, though they may be focused more around Oakland/Berkeley or Walnut Creek and the 680 contra costa/alameda corridor – which are not my neighborhoods).
I will watch, but do think the larger pullbacks will be in the SF and south bay areas.
Curious-Cat
Curious-Cat
3 years ago
Adam Smith’s invisible hand strikes again.
RonJ
RonJ
3 years ago
Reply to  Curious-Cat
Marxists still keep trying to tie it behind his back.
shamrock
shamrock
3 years ago
Case-Shiller for March comes out tomorrow, expect the more than 3 year streak of month over month price increases to continue. The streak will probably end sometime in 2022 but not yet.
Mish
Mish
3 years ago
Reply to  shamrock
Case-Shiller lags 3-4 months so we could see higher prices for a while
PreCambrian
PreCambrian
3 years ago
There will be a rush for the exits.

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