Craps Do Happen in Dice and Elections
Assuming the odds are accurate, by definition the answer is precisely 10%.
Nate Silver says I’m Here To Remind You That Trump Can Still Win
“A 10 percent chance isn’t zero. And there’s a chance of a recount, too,” Silver accurately added.
Understanding Neither Elections Nor Math
Those comments (and thousands of similar ones by others) come from people who understand neither elections nor probabilities.
Math Lesson 101
- 10% is Not 0%
- 90% is not 100%
No one is backpedaling on anything.
Craps Lesson
Craps are a 2, 12, or 3 total on two dice. That is 4 chances in 36 (1-1, 6-6, 1-2, 2-1) or 1 chance in 9.
The true odds are 8-1, but the payout is only 7-1 giving the house an 11.1% advantage.
Silver has the odds of Trump winning as 1 time in 10, quite similar to placing a 1 time in 9 bet on “any craps”.
People expect of Silver to be 100% accurate on a 90% bet.
Reflections on Wasted Votes
A discussion of wasted votes came up in numerous Tweets.
I was accused of wasting my vote on Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen.
There are hundreds more similar to these.
Expect a Crappy Outcome
Too many people wasted their votes by voting for party over policy.
A crappy outcome is guaranteed.
Trump Craps
Meanwhile, Trump’s hopes are down to two things.
- A far bigger polling error than in 2016
- Stealing the election by not counting votes
The odds of those are about 1 time in 10, quite similar to a 1 time in 9 bet on “any craps”.
Not 2016
This is not 2016 so don’t expect a repeat. For discussion, please see Eight Reasons This is Not 2016
Moreover, pollsters may have overcorrected weightings and errors they made in 2016.
Thus, any errors are just as likely to towards a Biden blowout not a Trump win.
Mish
And from the pen of Nate Silver, who does a CYA and predicts it could be a landslide or a nail-biter. D’oh.
Nov. 3, 2020, at 1:08 AM
Biden’s Favored In Our Final Presidential Forecast, But It’s A Fine Line Between A Landslide And A Nail-Biter
By Nate Silver
Betting odds are at 279-259 electoral colleges in favor of Biden. Pennsylvania is really close in the latest polls thought, I’d say anything can happen.
The fact that Trump is even considered a possible winner at this point shows how screwed up the people and this country really are.
I had a denial of service attack and had to turn of comments
I think Biden or Trump will win, so I am getting myself mentally prepared for grave disappointment.
Since Biden is leading in the polls everyone who votes for 3rd party makes Joe Biden becoming president MORE LIKELY.
Jorgensen has exactly 0% chance so voting for Jorgensen is in my opinion moral posing to separate the voter of Jorgensen from both Joe Biden and Donald Trump intellectually.
The facts are that the president will either be Joe Biden or Donald Trump.
In other news Kamala Harris just demanded equality of outcomes which can never be achieved in capitalism so it is marxism/communism under whatever brand they invent next for everyone being equally poor and for party elites to control everything.
Joe Biden looks worse than ever and no longer is even able to read the teleprompter without speaking gibberish so it will be a Kamala Harris presidency if Joe Biden wins.
You can detect gibberish?
Factonjoe speaks gibberish fluently
It will all come down to Pennsylvania.
Trump will get Florida, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, and Iowa.
Biden will get Wisconsin and Michigan.
What are chances Trump wins Pennsylvania? Biden’s gaffe during the last debate might cost him the election.
Trump has small chance to get Michigan too and Minnesota is in play if there is a record Republican turnout and many Democrats vote for Trump, the Trump rally in Minnesota had over 50% people who were NOT Republicans.
Trafalgar which polled Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania correctly in 2016 thinks Trump has a sliver of a lead in Michigan but it is within margin of error.
Wisconsin is a long shot for Trump unless the polls have failed worse than in 2016.
Pennsylvania is the state to watch and if Trump wins that he might have a 50/50 chance to win the presidency and even Nate “Biden has 90% chance to win” Silver was worried about Pennsylvania on TV and said Biden will be an underdog if Trump wins Pennsylvania.
The final polls for Texas looked positive for Trump, but in his shoes I’d be very concerned about the high early-vote turnout combined with the shifting Texas demographics.
The “shy Trump vote” may exist in many states, but in TX, it’s the “shy blue vote.”
The reason polls are so sketchy these days is that a lot of people don’t vote for the person or the package of ideas that person is offering but for one or two single ideas. Pollsters need to query what ideas a person thinks is most important and then connect that to a candidate.
Trump Has Weaponized Masculinity As President. Here’s Why It Matters
October 28, 2020
Not sure who I want to laugh at more…the snowflake who wrote that story….or the idea that Trump is even particularly masculine. The author obviously views “hypermasculinity” as some kind of disease…..maybe like “white fragility” or “the white male patriarchy”. What Trump is…in spades….is sexist, classist, and racist. In the old school sense…..
Masculine? Not by the standards of the men who were my role models….or the women I’ve known either, for that matter. Nobody I’d want to sail an ocean with, or climb a mountain with…..or ski powder with…or even play golf with, for that matter.
You guys don’t understand the pot-bellied, beer swilling, locker room talking macho men who whistles at every good looking woman walking by. These are the old Archie Bunker types who don’t see themselves as anything other than the most desirable real men available.
These are Trump’s voters and to them, he represents their type of masculinity.
I doughy pale 74 year old hardly screams “masculine”. He looks more like the poster child for Low T.
Whaddya mean?
I mean … he has yuge hands, right?
Seeing a lot of hysteria among all kinds of people lately
That son is an A-hole.
The pattern is usually that those who support Democrats cut the Trump supporters away from their lives.
Democrats are NOT the party of tolerance, Democrats are a party of dogmatic thought and cult like behavior where those who do NOT believe in the cult’s teachings are excommunicated.
Other way around in my experience.
best quote in article: “Trump is like the catalyst of an earthquake that just divided two continents of thought. Once the Earth divides like that, there’s no going back. This is a marked time in our history where people had to jump from one side to the other. And depending on what side you choose, that is going to be the trajectory for the rest of your life,” she said.
yep, succinctly
Ratfuckery effectiveness is not an easily quantifiable parameter, and that’s really what we need. Further, I’m generally suspicious of nice round numbers like 0.10.
did you know 74.3% of all quoted statistics are made up on the spot?
I only believe that 21% of the time.
We can increase Trump’s chances by voting for him. If you need another good reason to vote for him, he recently improved the H-1B visa by increasing the “prevailing wage” for the various levels:
Old wage levels (1, 2, 3, 4) percentiles = 17th, 34th, 50th, 67th
New wage levels (1, 2, 3, 4) percentiles = 45th, 62nd, 78th, 95th
Thus, employers who hire at level 2, now have to pay workers at the “prevailing wage” at the 62 percentile, instead of only the 34 percentile.
So, in other words, the new wage levels incentivize companies to hire American workers first, because foreign labor now costs more.
We really need to encourage and support such politicians, including those in Congress.
If we all did so, then the political winds would be moving in the right direction and in time, many politicians would flip.
The above data is from pages 15 (of 150) and 119 (of 150) in the DoL report.
The election is no longer about particular policies, it is about chosing between illiberalism and liberalism. Voting 3rd party in this context is missing the forest for the trees. The country has an opportunity for a rebirth. Engagement in this process equals success & disengagement undermines. In an open socienty, one can be engaged & supportive without agreeing on everything. Analogizing that voting Biden is cutting off a leg – really???
“Rebirth”? That’s adorable. You have a lot of assumptions and cliches in a very short comment. I think the only thing you forgot is “this is the most important election of our lifetimes!” Mish is right — vote your conscience!!
Biden is completely controlled by the socialist wing of Democrats and Biden’s mind is going so Kamala Harris will be the real President even for the 1-2 years Biden maybe lasts and Kamala Harris is supporting equality of outcome which is totally unobtainable in capitalism and so that means marxism/communism under some new label.
This country is so divided that it may be better for everybody to just divide the country into 2 countries: The Divided States of Trump (DST) and United States of America (USA). All the states that Trump wins can form the DST.
The blue states don’t want to be surrounded by failed states, and that’s what’ll happen when those federal taxes stop flowing from blue to red.
I don’t tell anybody how to spend his or her vote……it’s a tough decision, if you love your country and have a conscience.
But my vote against Trump was more important to me than any particular policy vote. And I know what Biden stands for and I don’t like it much. It’s still a more effective anti-Trump vote than a 3rd party vote, imho.
I recognize that Trump could still win. The question is what do I do about it if it happens? That requires a lot of thought…and maybe the answer is “nothing”…at least right now.
But every step down the trail to authoritarianism is one more reason to consider voting with my feet. There aren’t many things that could turn me into an ex-pat..I decided long ago that avenue was way overhyped….but there are some things that might…..and more attacks on our system…..like weaponizing the justice department against political opponents…just might do it.
In 1960 Mayor Daley I turned the tide in Illinois for JFK by sending out his Democratic Party foot soldiers to get out the vote on Election Day in the precincts bounded by Ridgeland Avenue, Western Avenue, 111th and 115th Streets. The precinct where Resurrection Mary lives had names too hard to spell for the off-duty Streets and Sanitation guys.
Try that one again–ease up on the nirous oxide, perhaps.
James Howard Kunstler is not in the election prediction business. He is, however, a well-established social critic, and a liberal ‘gloom and doomer’ with a focus on the future. That said, regardless of politics, his essay (linked below) should be a clear message to all of us here.
Do not be put off by his vote for Trump. The issues he raises are what is important.
I’m a social critic also, and I recognize an outlook that only finds value in speeding the impending collapse–looking for the joy of “I told you so.”
Kunstler has sadly turned into an old man yelling “get off my lawn”. He used to have some mental acuity, sad to see it go.