It appears SPD + CDU will fall short of a coalition majority. Young voters abandoned the Greens en masse.
Brandenburg State Election 2024 Live Results
Der Spiegel has the most up-to-date Brandenburg State Election 2024 Live Results
I crunched some numbers in my previous post and thought SPD-CDU could barely form a coalition. That no longer appears to be the case.
In Germany, if parties fail to make a 5 percent threshold, they get generally get no representation. Those votes then get assigned on a percentage basis.
Greens and Die Linke Gone
What’s going on with the uncounted votes?
Greens Crash Out
Political Positions
SPD: The SPD’s core issue has always been social policy such as a minimum wage. The SPD aims to tax the rich while easing the tax burden on low and medium-earners. The party’s traditional voters — industrial workers and low-income earners — turned their backs on the SPD, and the party went through a protracted identity crisis as it teamed up with the conservatives for “grand coalition” governments, that were seen to dilute its image.
SPD’s preferred coalition partner is the Green Party. [Mish Note: Booted in Brandenberg and possibly nationally in the next election]
AfD: The AfD wants to prevent refugees from heading to Germany at all. The party wants to immediately deport anyone whose application for political asylum is rejected. The AfD wants to limit NATO’s operational area to the territory of its member states and replace the EU with a new organization.
The AfD was originally created by a group of neo-liberal academics as a protest against the single European currency. They were angered specifically by Merkel’s decision to bail out Greece in 2010 following Europe’s financial crisis. But following the influx of refugees mainly from war-torn Syria in 2015, the party set an overtly nationalist, anti-immigrant, anti-Islam agenda.
BSW: The Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance is left-wing on economic issues: social justice, job security, higher wages, generous benefits and a revamped tax system. It’s close to the far-right on issues like immigration and gender diversity. The BSW is critical of sending weapons to Ukraine and its supporters in the Russo-Ukrainian War, and blames NATO for escalating the conflict. In reference to the Israel–Hamas war, Wagenknecht described the Gaza Strip as an “open-air prison.” BSW opposes the shift toward renewable energy.
CDU: The CDU/CSU pledge to reduce corporate taxes and benefit high-income earners.
On migration, the CDU/CSU stresses its commitment to the fundamental right to asylum, but they want tighter restrictions on who can apply for asylum and they stress the need to deport refugees who have committed criminal offenses in Germany.
The CDU/CSU wants Germany to play a leading role in world affairs. They see Europe and the United States as Germany’s traditional partners.
CDU’s preferred coalition partner is FDP. [Mish Note: Booted in Brandenberg and likely nationally in the next election]
The above snips from DW’s A Look at Germany’s Political Parties.
Does Any Coalition Make Sense?
According to the website InfoMigrants, “the Social Democrats consider immigration an enrichment that advances Germany. They call for a humanitarian EU asylum system and solidarity with refugees and migrants.”
That is from 2023 but remains the general position. Since then, SPD has bent a little but the party remains lightyears apart from either BSW or AfD.
Factoring in preferred coalition partners, no coalition makes any sense. And all of the parties have ruled out a coalition with AfD.
Why would CDU want to enter another failed “Grand Coalition” even if the math worked?
Nonetheless, that could be the final result as a minority or bare majority election simply to keep AfD an BSW out of the picture.
The current Government is a three-way mess of SPD, CDU, and the Greens with only 44 seats, one short of majority.
SPD + BSW would hit a majority plus one, but the immigration and also green policies are lightyears apart.
Flashback January 22, 2024: Another Pro-Russia Political Party Emerges in Germany, Why That Matters
The German “Traffic Light” [SPD, FDP, Green] coalition has splintered beyond salvation. A new German party that aims to defy labels has emerged.
Curiously, Sarah Wagenknecht seeks to “defy labels” with a mix of left-leaning economic, conservative migration and pro-Russian foreign policy initiatives.
Certainly, she will have more luck with the no labels idea in Germany than the No Labels party in the US. Let’s take a closer look.
To go from 0 percent to 13.5 percent in less than a year is amazing.
Also see my September 1 post, Far Right to Win First German State Election Since WWII
AfD won the state election in Thuringia and came close in Saxony.
In Thuringia AfD got 22 seats, CDU got 21 seats, BSW got 15 seats, SPD got 6 seats, and the Left 12 seats with 45 seats needed for a majority. The Greens and FDP were wiped out.
Good luck with forming a coalition out of that. It does not look possible at all.
In Saxony, CDU got 41 seats, AfD 40 seats, and BSW 15 seats with 61 seats needed for a majority.
Germany Suspends Schengen, Immigration Repercussion Across the Entire EU
On September 10, I noted Germany Suspends Schengen, Immigration Repercussion Across the Entire EU
For the first time in EU history, Germany is at the forefront of immigration suspension. Other EU countries will follow.
Today’s result shows what happens when you suppress what voters want.
Greens need to change their logo to a sex toy. At least then their messaging would match the results of their policies.
“To go from 0 percent to 13.5 percent in less than a year is amazing.”
It’s more a case of The Left splitting, than BSW coming out of nowhere.
Germany’s effectively back to the 30s now: Once-were “libertarian’ish” AfD is now full on nationalist, largely for socialist “reasons.” While the always-were socialists at BSW, has decided to gofull-tilt nationalist, too.
Such that: It’s now back to national-socialism again. AfD and BSW are unlikely to partner up, though: Again like back then; while policies are largely the exact same between the Adolfs and the Josefs: The imagery, visuals and ideological fairytales underpinning them are very different.
Oh: And also: Again just as was the case with the national socialists in the 30s: What gave rise and nurtured this latest incarnation, was the same old: Run-amuck, central bank driven, crass debasement theft from productive working Germans. And, as Keynes recognized long prior: Not one man in a million neither was, nor is, able to detect that. Instead pliantly running around mindlessly and illiterately blaming everyone and everything OTHER than the true culprit. Which, now as then, is and was nothing other than central banking, inflation and debasement theft.
Smearing the AfD like that is lazy and illiterate… have you actually read the AfD manifesto? can you actually map it onto anything you are implying, or is it all just in your head?
“In Germany, if parties fail to make a 5 percent threshold, they get generally get no representation. Those votes then get assigned on a percentage basis.”
Do those voters want to be reassigned?
During the Weimar years, it was not unusual for the Bundestag (parliament) to have reps from at least a dozen political parties.
I don’t follow Germany Politics all that much, but recently I have taken a notice to the Country’s display of wanting “Change” seems like a thing now days. So please correct me if I am incorrect in my understanding, but this is how I see it, albeit a limited amount of time following it…
AfD Party is basically The Americans Republican Party.
SPD Party is basically The American Democrat Party.
Green Party is basically The American Liberal Party.
So it appears that The Liberal, Activist, Progressive Reform Party OR “Green Party” got shown their way to the door, and in a very aggressive, don’t come back sort of way. Hmm… sounds a tad familiar.
So it appears that The Democrat Party, got roughly 1/2 of the Liberal Party’s Votes.
So it appears that the Republican Party got roughly the other 1/2 of the Liberal Party’s Votes.
So Germany & America are going through nearly the exact same Political Agendas. The Countries Citizens have had enough of the Green/Liberal Party, and Germany now has appeared to Kick Them Out! America is totally on The Verge of doing the same (Unless you follow the “Brown Shirt” MSM) exact thing here!
So now we have Republicans Vs. Democrats in Germany, by the looks of it. Sort of fitting, seeing as how there issues are very similar in nature.
The Big Difference IMO, is DJT!!! America appears poised to get back to “Caring About America” and Electing Trump will do Just That and the Citizens Now Know it as well! Germany doesn’t quite have the Leader Support that America has, but after “Dumping The Greens”, I am now onboard as being guilty of listening to the EU BS Along with all the other BS coming from France (A Mess), and Canada (A Mess) Etc. and believe AfD is Totally on their way to Victory in Germany.
P.S. Germany and it’s Citizens, in many ways, would much prefer Trump as well, so they also have they going for them, much like America.
“AfD Party is basically The Americans Republican Party”
..
AfD is the Trump wing.
CDU is the Bush wing.
Um… We have Trump & Kamala running, I just wanted to keep you up to speed…
Kamala’s not really running, is she? Trump is more likely to be ducking.
The math didn’t work. In France the real original French won. The paper traders French lost. Michel Barnier formed a conservative gov.
The right wing party (AfD) winning the most vote from the 16 to 24 age demographic, or 32% of this group, is significant.
I wonder if and why this trend continues, such as the next election it will be much higher than 32%.
Looks like the European youth is either more exposed to the real life, or just less brainwashed.
They have a Gen. Z too!
The Trend has been more Conservative for centuries, but Germany has had a social net system in place, so to speak. As of late the social policies have been more aggressive, but don’t seem to be catching on all that much. In fact they appear to be what’s causing the primary disruptions in the Country (sound familiar?), and that’s going to stop rather quickly now, by the looks of things… imo.
I wonder what percentage of Middle East refugees fleeing to Germany can be tied to the US Middle East wars starting in 2001.
What do they need government to do? If Brandenburg can’t form a government, perhaps don’t bother. The people will have to find or make alternatives to what Brandenburg’s government is unable to do. It could be a good and useful exercise for the German people.
Curiosity: Which of these parties is the party of German government workers? Or is there such a party, as we have in the US?
Generally SPD (public unions publicly endorse SPD candidates, party consistently gets more than 2/3 of gov worker votes still.)
I could be wrong, but haven’t the Unions taken a beating as of late in Germany? I don’t think they are on the best footing at the moment, and timing may be ripe for a change in voting amongst that group, looking for better answers than they are getting perhaps…
The Greens destroyed Germany in every way and there are 4.1% still voting for them..wow
The difficulty of just keeping food on the table is upon us.
Germany is finally waking up/voting with the knowledge of being broke.
Germans are natural born socialists. Socialism ever and always ends in dire poverty for all.
Dense population requires strong regulation to live peacefully together, and maintain a level of prosperity. Cohesion and solidarity doesn’t equal socialism. Originally, in the wast empty spaces of America, individualism was possible while maintaining cohesion.
Voted for the green party?
America welcomes them onboard, now maybe together, the two Countries can do something about it?
Go Sarah !