Hello President Biden. Polls say you are in serious trouble and those polls are very believable for reasons I explain.
Most people only believe polls when the polls support their personal position. I believe polls contain information even if they will never be entirely accurate.
Trump Leads in 5 Critical States as Voters Blast Biden, Times/Siena Poll Finds
Please note Trump Leads in 5 Critical States as Voters Blast Biden, Times/Siena Poll Finds
President Biden is trailing Donald J. Trump in five of the six most important battleground states one year before the 2024 election, suffering from enormous doubts about his age and deep dissatisfaction over his handling of the economy and a host of other issues, new polls by The New York Times and Siena College have found.
The results show Mr. Biden losing to Mr. Trump, his likeliest Republican rival, by margins of four to 10 percentage points among registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden is ahead only in Wisconsin, by two percentage points, the poll found.
Another ominous sign for Democrats is that voters across all income levels felt that Mr. Biden’s policies had hurt them personally, while they credited Mr. Trump’s policies for helping them. The results were mirror opposites: Voters gave Mr. Trump a 17-point advantage for having helped them and Mr. Biden an 18-point disadvantage for having hurt them.
Concerns about the president’s advancing age and mental acuity — 62 percent also said Mr. Biden does not have the “mental sharpness” to be effective — are just the start of a sweeping set of Biden weaknesses in the survey results.
Key Poll Results
- Discontent pulsates throughout the Times/Siena poll, with a majority of voters saying Mr. Biden’s policies have personally hurt them.
- Demographic groups that backed Mr. Biden by landslide margins in 2020 are now far more closely contested, as two-thirds of the electorate sees the country moving in the wrong direction.
- Voters under 30 favor Mr. Biden by only a single percentage point, his lead among Hispanic voters is down to single digits and his advantage in urban areas is half of Mr. Trump’s edge in rural regions.
- Women still favor Mr. Biden, but men prefer Mr. Trump by twice as large a margin, reversing the gender advantage that had fueled so many Democratic gains in recent years.
- Black voters — long a bulwark for Democrats and for Mr. Biden — are now registering 22 percent support in these states for Mr. Trump, a level unseen in presidential politics for a Republican in modern times.
- Voters, by a 59 percent to 37 percent margin, said they better trusted Mr. Trump over Mr. Biden on the economy, the largest gap of any issue.
- The gender gap on national security was enormous. Men preferred Mr. Trump 62 percent to 33 percent; women preferred Mr. Biden 47 to 46 percent.
The Unmistakable Message
People do not believe Bidenomics is working. Inflation is moderating, but prices are still going up.
Take a look at rent.
CPI Rises More Than Expected as Rent Jumps Another 0.6 Percent
I repeat the core key theme for something like two years now. People keep telling me rents are falling, I keep doubting. The doubters have it correct again.
All these “rents are falling” projections have been based on the price of new leases, but existing leases, vastly more important, keep rising.
On October 12, I noted CPI Rises More Than Expected as Rent Jumps Another 0.6 Percent
Rent of primary residence, the cost that best equates to the rent people pay, jumped 0.6 percent. Rent of primary residence has gone up at least 0.4 percent for 26 consecutive months!
It is not the wealthy who make up the majority of renters. So rent alone is fueling the pain. Factor in food.
A rising stock market and home prices does not help those with no assets. And the poor have no assets.
Existing Home Sales Drop Another Two Percent to a 13-Year Low
On October 19, I reported Existing Home Sales Drop Another Two Percent to a 13-Year Low
Existing-home sales are at the lowest level since 2010, down 18 of the last 20 months.
Who can afford them among those who don’t own a home but want to? I believe that question is explains this poll result: Voters under 30 favor Mr. Biden by only a single percentage point.
Cramming EVs Down Everyone’s Throat
Renters with no place to charge a car and no means to afford one anyway are rightfully upset at Biden’s energy policies.
Even unions are upset at Biden for cramming EVs down everyone’s throats. The Unions understand that EVs will cost union jobs, and lots of them.
Wake Up Mr. President, Consumers Want Hybrids, Not EVs
On October 16, I commented Wake Up Mr. President, Consumers Want Hybrids, Not EVs
A better title would have been Wake Up Mr. President, Consumers Don’t Want EVs
While the President harps about how great things are, consumers don’t see it that away and I have been covering all the reasons why.
The polls are a snapshot now, and could change. But they are certainly very believable.
Biden is so staggeringly incompetent, it’s an absolute wonder that he has any support at all. I suspect that most Democrats would vote for a horse if they were told to.
Trump is toast once he gets convicted before primaries. Nikki Haley would be a wiser choice for President for the Republicans but many of them are still in love with Donald.
Frankly speaking most of what Biden inherited still remains.. Trump broke the alliances of decades in favor of despots and autocratic dictatorships over democracy. A lot of powerful interests favor America becoming a dictatorship.
I’ll be prepared to execute on my exit strategy should Trump get elected. But the higher likelihood is he gets removed from the ballot in enough states as a convicted felon due to existing state and federal laws. If he wasn’t so brazen about breaking the law for so long he might have made a better leader and gotten reelected. Trump never knew legal ways of doing things which is why he is where is (in a courtroom defending himself).
Maybe I’m old school, but don’t you need to have ACTUALLY COMMITTED A CRIME in order to be convicted?
“Fifty years ago, on March 31, 1968, Lyndon B. Johnson appeared on national television and announced that he was partially halting the U.S. bombing of Vietnam, and that he had decided not to seek his party’s nomination for president. “There is division in the American house now,” Johnson declared.”
So it looks like FJB can wait as long as until next March. The rest of that statement seems oddly familiar.
Biden will not run in 2024, but I also thought he would not last more than one year. The reason he has lasted and why is won’t run in 2024 is named Kamala. Democrats fear President Harris more than they fear old Joe running again. If Joe runs and wins it is highly probable that Kamala will become president one day.
The only way to prevent a Harris presidency is for old Joe to gracefully bow out so that a “younger” candidate can win in 24. It’s a hard needle to thread but they will do anything to keep Kamala out of the White House. My prediction is that we will soon find out why sacking a black woman is not racists.
In 2024, Trump will probably garner 80 million votes, up ten mil from 2020 as voters register their disgust for Biden. On election night, Trump will lead by wide margins everywhere. But over the next few weeks, as Dems figure out how many votes they need to win, the ballots for Biden will pour in during the wee hours of the night with 99% voting for him in some districts. Aided by ballot harvesters paid a fee per ballot, unmonitered drop boxes, ballots mailed out to everyone old enough to vote regardless of citizenship status, no signature verification on mail in ballots, landslide margins of Dem prefernce among the dead, Biden will break all voting records while never campaigning before a crowd of more than a 100 and only occasionally knowing which state he was in. In swing states his vote tally will exceed the number of registered voters. The courts will not hear any appeals, Republicans will whine Trump hurt the ticket, and Dems will trumpet that this was “the most secure election ever.” In January, Jill will mouth the oath of office for Joe who will tell the press before he’s whisked away that he’s glad a clean person of color like Obama was elected president again.
Your take is mostly proven bullsheet. Trump lost.
If Trump was not a stubborn fool and strived to get out the vote instead of whining, he would have won.
He and Hillary are alike. They blame everyone else instead of themselves.
And if Trump did not back real idiots in Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania Republicans would have held the Senate.
Despite Trump doing nothing to rectify his own stupid mistakes, if the election were held today, he would win. That’s how bad Biden is.
The only thing more egregious and ill informed than voting for Trump, is voting for Biden. Our “Precious Democracy” sure produces the least qualified people for political office. Is this the best we can do? There was a good reason the founders wanted to limit voting rights. Unfortunately those checks have been dismantled and we have a Rube-ocracry.
Biden is a shuffling zombie with a head full of dumpster juice who falls UP stairs and the alternative is a brash, juvenile loudmouth who has a history of breaking promises as documented during his first disasterous term.
Also, we really really need age limits. You shouldn’t be able to run if you’ll be older than 65 on Inauguration Day. Even that might be too old for such a demanding job.
Something does not add up. The 2020 election was not particularly close. The 2022 mid-term elections showed a very poor showing for those candidates endorsed or running on MAGA-like policies. It is very well known that Trump’s support skews older, skews toward males, and skews white. Obviously, the annual mortality rate is much higher for the older cohort of voters, particularly during the years following the pandemic. Female registered voters outnumber male voters and female voter turnout percentage has been higher than male turnout since 1976. Lastly, the share of white registered voters has been declining of flat from election to election for over 20 years. Regarding the polls, conducted by telephone, statistics show that persons under 65 do not have landlines, and persons with cell phones do not answer calls from unrecognized numbers. None of these data and trends favor Donald Trump.
Yep! Woman are easily manipulated to vote for main stream pop culture. The abortion issue seems to be a rallying call. The way I see it, why should Republicans care if Democrats want to cull the herd of future Democrats.
Biden is a dimwit, a liar, and a mean-spirited jerk. He’s been that way his entire life and now on top of that, he’s visibly feeble, both physically and mentally. That said, I think that Biden would win another term in a heartbeat. When push comes to shove, voters will hold their noses and elect Biden as a referendum against obnoxious loudmouth Trump.
I voted for Trump in 2016 even though I never cared for his bombastic personality. But he said he was going to drain the swamp and build a wall to stop the illegal invaders. Heck, he even said that we in a stock market bubble caused be too-low interest rates.
Trump’s presidency was extremely disappointing. Needless to say, he didn’t build the wall and didn’t drain the swamp (hiring known scumbags like John Bolton instead). His signature legislation was a completely unnecessary coroporate tax cut and the national debt exploded on Trump’s watch. His presidency was delegated to Ivanka and Jared and when Powell tried to normalize (raise) interest rates, he was browbeat relentlessly on Twitter.
I deeply hate both Biden and Trump. It’s pathetic that this is the best we can offer in a country of 330 million.
You forgot pedofile and crook
Sad but true.
Lmao when push comes to shove? You speak as if the ‘at least half’ of us that support Trump are just going to vote for thd drooling ice cream senior. Not happening.
“You speak as if the ‘at least half’ of us that support Trump are just going to vote for thd drooling ice cream senior.”
What I mean is that dems who are vocal about not liking or wanting Biden will fall into line and vote for him anyway if he’s the candidate. Of course the MAGA crowd would never vote for Biden. Duh.
Agreed. I’m an independent who normally doesn’t waste time voting. I did vote Trump in 2016 and he was a horrible disappointment. A man baby with a backwards economic plan-tax imports and give huge tax breaks to corporations while raining money on DOD. I may vote RFK as a protest, but I probably won’t vote, certainly not for a neo-con like Haley.
If you think Biden trailing Trump one year before the 2024 election is not good for your candidate, just wait until:
– Word Salad Kamala tries to gain any traction at all
against Trump.
– CA. Destroying Newsom tries to gain any traction at all against Trump.
– (place any Democrat Name HERE) tries to gain any traction at all against Trump.
A Fools errand at best, and a pipe dream at that… Take a look around our Country right NOW! It’s is a World of Hurt and Pain! Nothing is going right in any area of our Country for its Citizens.
Sure the Democrat Politicians are doing awesome financially, as are the NGO’s, All Unions, Lawyers, Climate Change Agenda, EV Agenda, Solar Panel Agenda, Windmill Agenda ETC. The average Citizen… NOT SO MUCH!!!
they forgot to poll Biden’s real, core bases of strength ….the cemeteries, the xerox machines, the homeless camps and the illegal immigrants…..
1) America has fallen so low. Japan and S.Korea can no longer trust Biden, b/c
China is circling Taiwan, US gave Afghanistan to the Taliban and Putin carved
Ukraine.
2) A decisive victory over Hamas will boost the US image after decades of sinking in the mud.
3) France sent an aircraft carrier to the ME. US Eisenhower and Gerald Ford are
sailing near Lebanon. UK, Germany and other NATO countries sent special forces to Akrotiri an RAF base in Cyprus and to Greece, to protect their assets and subjects
from Iran and her proxies.
4) If Israel will lose to Hamas, after a series of failures, US ability to exert power
in the world is over.
5)
Correction: trump gave Afgan to Taliban with formerly Fat Mike Pompeo paving the way. trump released jailed Taliban leader who gladly took over trump’s gift to him..
Biden was no more responsible for the collapse of Afgan than Ford was responsible for the fall of Saigon – which was put in place by the evil twins Nixon & Kissinger. Evil twins trump and Fat Mike repeated in Afgan.
If anyone was responsible for the collapse of Afghanistan, it was Bush Jr., who didn’t have enough troops to deal with Afghanistan and Iraq at the same time. Generals Zinni and Shinseki warned Bush he didn’t even have enough troops to properly occupy Iraq. Afghanistan was left on a back burner until troops were finally pulled out of Iraq. The Taliban remained persistent, even through Obama’s temporary surge of troops into the country. The U.S. was then effectively in the same position as the Soviet Union was in the 1980’s, with the Mujahadeen.
Victory over Hamas? You’re kidding right They have no army, navy or air force against the most powerful armies in the world And you consider that an achievement because I don’t
I don’t spend much time thinking about EVs but allowing sompne with trump’s grave character flaws back into the WH might be the last real presidential ballot Americans ever cast.
I don’t believe this poll which only gives Biden a 1% advantage in female voters, impossible.
Age is an issue for both of them but Biden takes care of himself, trump is a physical and mental mess.
I used a new email address to post the above comment because the spamex disposable email address I have used for years here has apparently stopped working. My posts just evaporate with no warning messages. I sent multiple emails to MIsh but have not received any replies!
The original comment above got sent to moderation, perhaps because it is the first use of this new email address here?
Do I have to create a Twitter ID to get Mish’s attention?
Biden needs to get rid of Harris. I believe this is being planned for and that CA Governor Newsom is the designated replacement, which is why he has been raising his national visibility and has been traveling to worldwide where he even met Xi.
I imagine that Harris will “decide” to retire to “spend more time with the family”, most likely in early 2024. Newsom will then be chosen to replace here.
I first read that as “CIA Governor Newsom…” Gee, I wonder why!
You’re not suggesting that the CIA would groom and install someone as president, are you? I mean, they’ve done it in dozens of foreign countries, but do you think they’d do it here in the democratic U.S.?
What a nightmare. Dumb and Dumber.
I don’t think Biden will be the Democratic nominee. Trump will be the Republican nominee unless he’s convicted of a crime that makes him ineligible to be President.
Um. A conviction isn’t final until the appeals process is completed.
While he might be convicted by Smith but that one will be overturned on appeal.
The Fani trial probably ends in a hung jury.
The documents case will be overturned on appeal.
This is all for shot to try to turn public opinion against the guy. Obviously, this is failing miserably. And don’t trust the polls talking about some % of people not supporting Trump, if he’s convicted. The vast, vast majority of people who support Trump fully believe all of this is a political witch hunt which it is.
See you in Nov ’24, when I’ll be voting for Trump, despite preferring DeSantis. But D should have sat this one out.
Oh, my bad! The documents case either is a not guilty or is a hung jury.
The venue is very Trump friendly.
That’s their plan .
Polls are only a snapshot when they were taken.
Sienna’s polls are only 85% accurate per Five Thirty-Eight sampling of actual election results comparing Sienna’s at or less than 21 days from the election.
The silly season hasn’t even started.
If both Trump and Biden are the nominees of the GOP and the Democratic Party, it reflects how the two parties have digressed from the candidacies of Jefferson, Jackson, FDR, JFK and RFK for the Democrats and Lincoln, TR, for the Republicans.
Vote for the independent of your choice and send a message t the uniparty state.
Will be hard for Trump to get out and campaign when he’s rotting in prison. Although maybe one of the reasons his poll numbers are high right now (higher than at any point before, during or after his presidency) is because of the gag order.
Troll alert! Zardoz kookoo alert. Watch out for the fall rocks out of this guy’s head.
People on this blog know I don’t care at all for Biden or Trump. I think they both really suck! America has fallen so low. Also I think Kennedy is just a shill for Biden, a lipstick on a pig. Initially for President I liked Larry Elder a conservative Republican from California, but as a black man whose family was so patriotic favoring traditional values, who said black people need to stop talking about racism, start talking about personal responsibility, well since we certainly can’t have an actually good man, with great values as President, BLM dug up all kinds of dirt on him immediately and the media quickly took him down. I admit since he’s not married or has any kids , it’d be really hard for him to secure the Republican nomination, but our country is in so much trouble, we really need a Hail Mary don’t you think?
I agree, that the pick is between a senile pedo crook and a narcissist who failed to deliver on draining the swamp speaks loudly about US politics.
What happens if the Demoncrats pull a switcheroo in 2024 once Trump is confirmed as the Republican candidate by having FJB regretfully withdraw in health grounds and another candidate takes his place? Will that change the dynamics as the fresh face won’t have FJBs baggage? And if so who will they nominate that Democrat voters and independents will support as well as all the Never Trumpers? Michael Obummer? Newsom? Somebody else?
Whitmer seems to be an obvious choice. She seems to be managing a very-divided Michigan pretty well. Both sides grumble, that’s a good sign.
Whitmer, obvious choice?
You’re joking, right?
That’s Mish’s hoot of the day!
Bravo!
Its witchmore. An evil tyrant during lockdowns. I’d rather have Brandon whom I deeply despise.
I suspect that is Exactly what will happen.
The Democratic Party elites, being the self proclaimed Guardians of Democracy, did not allow primary voters to elect Bernie in ‘16 and ‘20 and now will select the nominee after Biden wins too many uncontested primaries. Fix is in. Why vote in the primary?
I’m going to go the other way.
I’m not a fan of Trump’s cult of personality, but I would like to see him get re-elected for one reason: he’s a single term president, who can really go after the swamp this time.
He surrounded himself with mostly all the wrong people, including Jarod & his daughter.
This time give me Flynn as the AG & that Kash guy as the head of the FBI and some serious heads will roll.
FJB will step down in December before Christmas, after Newsom debates DeSantis later this month.
“..who can really go after the swamp this time.”
Except: He’s several orders of magnitude too flat out stupid and clueless to recognise “The Swamp,” despite having spent his entire life up to his ears in it.
Trump’s no different at all, from the rest of the clowns. The only exception being: He has worse manners. And is, as a result of that, a lot more entertaining to listen to. But as far as policy, it’s just more of the same. He will, just like Biden, continue the unbroken tradition going back to Jefferson, of Making America Worse than it was when he took over the presidency.
If you’re going to go after the swamp, you’re not concerned about “manners”.
Actually, Trump’s first three years were some of the best we’ve had in a long time. Not being able to admit that part out loud clearly shows your bias. Granted, there’s tons of reasons not to like “who he is”, but he’s at least an order of magnitude better than FJB. The Big Guy is going to go down as the WORST PRESIDE EVER!!! FYI – there’s no telling how much more bad sh!t is going to happen over the next 14 months.
When COVID hit, the swamp, Dems / UniParty figured out really quickly that they could use it to oust him, which is exactly what they did.
Now, he’s back, big time! Granted, it would hurt my feelings, if he went down and had DeSantis step in. Not too much of a fan of Haley, but she’d make a good president.
Oops, typo!
“Granted, it would NOT hurt my feelings, if he went down and had DeSantis step in.”
I still like Elder. The news is so biased and manipulative, they’ll make dirt on anyone. I think we need to be worried about a candidate if they don’t.
I can’t help but think Trump and Biden are just a grand puppet show. My biggest fear is tyranny. The bigger government gets, the harder it is to prove.
A writer at the L.A. Times called Elder the black face of white racism. The writer was being racist.
Hi Mish. Will you be coming to Chicago to cover the Democrat National Convention at the United Center in August?
No