Wake Up Mr. President, Consumers Want Hybrids, Not EVs

EVs are stacking up while hybrids are hot sellers. Prius hybrids have a 1-week supply. The Mustang Mach-E SUV has a 3 1/2 month supply.

Automakers Big Hopes for EVs Crash Into Wall of Reality

Hello President Biden, despite tax incentives, ridiculous mileage regulations, nonsensical rules in California, and what’s left of your bully pulpit, the consumer has spoken loud and clear: They still don’t want EVs.

The Wall Street Journal reports Automakers Have Big Hopes for EVs; Buyers Aren’t Cooperating

The auto industry’s push to boost sales of electric vehicles is running into a cold, hard reality: Buyers’ interest in these models is proving shallower than expected.

Some car companies, such as Ford and Toyota are tempering their expectations for EVs and shifting more resources into hybrids, which have been drawing consumers at a faster clip.

The first wave of buyers willing to pay a premium for a battery-powered car has already made the purchase, dealers and executives say, and automakers are now dealing with a more hesitant group, just as a barrage of new EV models are expected to hit dealerships in the coming years.

The curve isn’t accelerating as quickly as I think a lot of people expected,” said John Lawler, Ford Motor’s chief financial officer at a conference in September, on the EV adoption rate. “We’re seeing it flatten a bit.”

Ford pushed back a plan to produce 600,000 EVs annually to late 2024 instead of the end of this year, and The Wall Street Journal reported Friday that it is considering canceling a shift of factory production on its electric F-150 Lightning pickup as sales for that model falter.

Hybrid sales in the year’s first three quarters jumped 48% over the prior-year period, according to Motor Intelligence, a reversal from last year, when hybrid sales fell roughly 6% compared with 2021.

“It’s a smoking-hot market,” said David Christ, head of sales for Toyota Motor’s North American business. Toyota has been slower to move to EVs than its rivals, preferring to promote hybrids, which are now in shorter supply.

Toyota, in September, had a little more than a week’s worth of Prius hybrids in stock, meaning many customers face long waits for one. By comparison, the Japanese automaker had a more-than-two-months’ supply of its newest electric SUV, the bZ4X, an indication those vehicles are starting to stack up at dealerships.

In September, Ford had a 3½-month supply of unsold Mustang Mach-E SUVs, more than double the industry average, according to research firm Motor Intelligence.

“We are trying to make as many hybrids and plug-in hybrids as possible,” Christ said. 

EVs Don’t Make Sense For Many People

EVs don’t make people who drive long distance, renters with no access to a charger, people on vacation who will not know where reliable chargers are located, and people who cannot afford an EV despite tax incentives.

If all you do is tool around town, any reliable used car should suffice. Why buy an expensive EV?

For those looking to buy a new car and worried about charging, a hybrid makes much more sense.

Were not for tax credits for consumers and subsidies for producers, EV sales would be in the gutter.

EV Prices Falling

The cost of an EV is sinking but most of that is Tesla sticking it to the big three automakers. The rest is auto makers responding to Tesla price cuts.

Already, the big three is losing money on every EV it sells. Ford has to sell a lot of pickup trucks to offset losses on EVs.

But what can Ford do with a 3.5 month supply of electric Mustangs other than cut production and further reduce prices.

Tesla’s China EV sales fall 11%

CNBC reports Tesla’s China EV sales fall 11%

  • Tesla’s China-made EV sales decreased 10.9% year over year for the month of September, according to the China Passenger Car Association.
  • News of Tesla’s sales dip comes a week after the company announced third-quarter vehicle deliveries that came in below deliveries and production from the previous quarter.
  • The company slashed prices for some of its Model 3 and Model Y vehicles in the U.S. on Oct. 6.

An Epic Battle: Ford to Use China’s Battery Technology, GM Wants it Blocked

On September 30, I noted An Epic Battle: Ford to Use China’s Battery Technology, GM Wants it Blocked

In a battle between GM and Ford, $7,500 in tax credits are at stake depending on Biden’s definition of “foreign entity of concern.” The exclusion aims to reduce US reliance on Chinese batteries and materials to make them.

What About Consumer Concerns?

Lost in the battle over “foreign entity of concern” ought to be the concern “how many people don’t want EVs crammed down their throats?”

No one is taking legitimate consumer concerns like price, insurance, number of reliable chargers, charging times, inflation, and even hurricane evacuations into proper consideration.

Biden’s Self-Made Dilemma

Biden is guaranteed to upset someone. That’s what happens when you interfere in the free markets, taking sides.

Congressional members from Michigan have lined up behind GM. So did Senator Joe Manchin.

The infrastructure isn’t ready in either case, and inflation is sure to rise.

The Shocking Truth About Biden’s Proposed Energy Fuel Standards

In case you missed it, please consider The Shocking Truth About Biden’s Proposed Energy Fuel Standards

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration NHTSA did an impact assessment of 4 fuel standard proposals and compared them to the cost of doing nothing. Guess what.

The NHTSA conclude: Net benefits [of stricter mile standards] for passenger cars remain negative across alternatives” vs doing nothing at all.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has concluded Biden’s mileage standards have “Net benefits for passenger cars remain negative across alternatives” vs doing nothing at all.

And to top it EVs don’t do a damn thing for the environment. See Biden’s Solar Push Is Destroying the Desert and Releasing Stored Carbon

Germany has turned to coal while getting rid of nuclear and the US is heavily subsidizing offshore wind farms that are are economically unfeasible even with subsidies. In addition, wind farms kill whales in the process.

Meanwhile, hypocrites like Al Gore and John Kerry trot the world in their jets preaching the world will end if nothing is done.

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zhirayr
zhirayr
6 months ago
Reply to  Mike Shedlock

Lucid just reported a decent miss so good call

OboeG-Moe
OboeG-Moe
6 months ago
Reply to  Mike Shedlock

In order for that to happen, a major advance in battery storage is needed – smaller, lighter and more powerful. There are inherent problems with that. People forget that electric vehicles are not new. They had them in Henry Ford’s day. Before ignition switches you had to crank the engine of an ICE vehicle, and electric cars were marketed to women – who sometimes didn’t have the strength to turn a big honking crankshaft.

Cocoa
Cocoa
6 months ago
Reply to  Mike Shedlock

Unfortunately, unlike a lot of tech, the PORN industry will not show us the way to which car tech will be supported in the future.

David
David
6 months ago
Reply to  Mike Shedlock

Follow the money.
Dealerships definitely DON’T want EVs.
Hybrids require regular serious servicing which delivers regular serious revenue – the lifeblood of the dealership network.
Your local tyre shop could do all the basic EV ‘servicing’.

OboeG-Moe
OboeG-Moe
6 months ago
Reply to  David

that’s fine unless your battery cracks or runs out. Then you have a brick that can’t be repaired, only replaced. I don’t want a massive fire in my garage, thanks.

DavefromDenver
DavefromDenver
6 months ago
Reply to  Mike Shedlock

Looks like we just found out how many “Early Adoptors” there were.
Isn’t there anyone in Washington or Detroit that remembers what they learned durring the first week of Marketing 401, and planned for this?

GussE
GussE
6 months ago

Have a BEV, drove a terrific hybrid for the first part of this week (long story) could not wait to get back to my BEV. I do NOT want a hybrid, not even a plug in. Driving a hybrid and straight up ICEVs again this week have reminded me why I’ll never go back to gas powered vehicles. I would bet real money the majority of the naysayers have never actually tried living with a BEV for the ordinary tasks like driving to work, the grocery store and picking kids up from school. Driving with an ICE is like driving a bag of rocks. Hard pass.

GT
GT
6 months ago
Reply to  GussE

You don’t get it. Whether BEVs are more fun or comfortable to drive is no more important than whether they are better for the environment. This all comes down to money, inconvenience, and infrastructure. No one is arguing about how BEVs drive.

BEVs do not make financial sense, otherwise government would not subsidize them.

BEVs do not make consumer sense because, among other things, they require purchasing cables and home modifications, more frequent tire changes, and you end up with a worthless vehicle once the battery dies or won’t hold a charge without doing a stupidly expensive battery change.

BEVs do not make sense for tons of people who, even if they wanted them, lack the available infrastructure at their apartments or rental homes (or where they park on the street) to charge them.

The reasons go on and on and what you see with Tesla this week is that the bloom is off the rose. Yes, EVs will be a hit with some wealthier people who can overcome the obstacles and enjoy the luxury of how they perform, but there’s a reason not everyone drove Porches for the last 50 years when they performed better than most anything else and that, my friend, was money.

Anyway, enjoy your BEV. I am glad you like it. You are in rarified company.

Sam R
Sam R
6 months ago

The data on actual EV sales in the US is instructive. Both 3rd QTR sales and YTD sales are up sharply year over year. 2023 should hit 1 million. But Tesla represents about 50% of total sales with their model S and Y being the dominant models sold. Only two other non Tesla models have YTD sales over 20,000 units: Chevy’s Bolt snd Ford’s Mustang Mach-E. The data is from Cox Automotive and Kelly. So you have an interesting dynamic. This is a growing segment of the market, but a small one. Only one company has the scale to obtain EV economies of scale at the production level: Tesla. Kia seems to be gaining but again, off a narrow base. I would make another observation: it’s just not EV’s that are growing in inventory. Many brands have non-EV’s piling up too. Global capacity exceeds demand and this has a lot to do with both price, interest rates, and the post-Covid production ramp up. EV’s are not going away. Over time, the industry needs more standardization in charging infrastructure. But that will come over time. It looks too that American OEM’s can’t be profitable at current sales. Every brand can’t be a winner in EV’s. Over time, there will be a shake-out. My money is on Tesla, VW, Hyundai-Kia, Toyota and the Chinese. We have not yet entered the M&A and bankruptcy phase in the EV segment. But that will come. EV math still has 1 million units a year and growing. But every global OEM can’t be a winner in this segment.

Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
6 months ago
Reply to  Sam R

Globally, populations are moving into the cities.
That alone supports growth in EV sales.

Tractionengine
Tractionengine
6 months ago

For the life of me I can’t see the logic in having an ICE to run a generator to charge a battery to drive an electric motor to move a car. What am I missing?

David
David
6 months ago
Reply to  Tractionengine

Servicing

Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
6 months ago
Reply to  Tractionengine

Efficient fuel consumption. The engine can run at it’s most efficient rpm, just like diesel-electric locomotives do. The railroads are particularly sensitive about costs.

Greg
Greg
6 months ago

The electrical grid in California, completely dominated by Biden’s party for decades and stuffed full of private jet flying “environmentalists”, cannot charge EVs if the majority of its residents switched.

Even if everyone wanted to fly private jets like John Kerry and Leonardo diCaprio “environmentalists”, it would take 2-3 decades (minimum) to build out enough generation (nuclear? coal? magic beans?), to build enough transmission wire, and to add charging ports in every home. There isn’t enough copper for the wiring, and there aren’t enough electricians.

EVs might happen someday? But not in the next 20-25 years. The laws of physics trump the temper-tantrums of politcal activists.

David
David
6 months ago
Reply to  Greg

Americans have never known anything about anywhere other than America.

babelthuap
babelthuap
6 months ago

EVs are a fad. Severe limitations. The tech will get leap frogged eventually but in the meantime we will have to get it shoved down our throats until we gag.

It does not work for most Americans and absolutely does not work for music acts traveling wide open spaces. If you have land, do stuff, haul stuff across state lines it is worthless in the current state. Not future. Current.

For those that sit home and watch Netflix and work 10 min from their dwelling it will work for you. Get one. Bum a ride with me when you want to get to the wide open spaces. Fine with me. Just don’t be an ass about it.

link to youtube.com

Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
6 months ago
Reply to  babelthuap

I am waiting to see plans for where they are going to put recharging stations on Interstate 80 from west of the Mississippi to the Pacific Ocean.

Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
6 months ago
Reply to  babelthuap

Which leads to the general questions about how far apart are they going to have to put charging stations up in the Rocky Mountains?
“Last chance to juice up for 150 miles.”

Jojo
Jojo
6 months ago

Ford CEO Admits ‘Reality Check’ When He Took Electric F-150 Truck On Road Trip
Sunday, Aug 20, 2023 – 04:30 PM
Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times

Ford CEO Jim Farley admitted he underwent a “reality check” when he tried to make a cross-country road trip in the Ford electric F-150.

“Charging has been pretty challenging,” Mr. Farley said in a video on X, formerly known as Twitter. “It was a really good reality check of the challenges of what our customers go through and the importance of fast charging and what we’re going to have to do to improve the charging experience.”

In California, Mr. Farley said he encountered slow charging times. When using a low-speed charger, it took about 40 minutes for it to charge the electric F-150’s battery to 40 percent.

According to Ford, the company has said it partnered with Telsa to allow Ford customers to use the more than 12,000 Tesla Superchargers next year. Other electric vehicles have also announced partnerships with Tesla.

link to zerohedge.com

ColoradoAccountant
ColoradoAccountant
6 months ago

Just went to Target for groceries. Filled up my Honda Forza, 1.75 gallons of premium. Got 87 MPG. It also can carry two people and 3 bags of groceries as long as the weather is nice. It is a hoot to ride in nice weather. Top speed is 90 MPH and range is 200+ miles on a tank of gas.

LC
LC
6 months ago

I’m handicapped and have a mobility scooter that takes up A LOT of room. I need a LARGE car with enough room for my mobility scooter, luggage and cooler for vacation and our long weekend getaways. They don’t have really large EV’s to accomodate this. I’m also not interested in paying $75,000+ for an EV or hybrid all the extra expenses. (chargers, batteries, insurance and electricity). I’m happy with my Subaru with all the safety features especially the eye sight which will stop the car automatically.

Jojo
Jojo
6 months ago

I keep telling everyone that hydrogen is the future. Biden and Congress recognizes this, which is why the recent large investment in H2 infrastructure was announced.

Battery driven cars are just a waypoint on the way to a full H2 economy, using the most abundant element in the universe!
———
Biden-Harris Administration Announces Regional Clean Hydrogen Hubs to Drive Clean Manufacturing and Jobs
October 13, 2023

Investing in American Infrastructure and Manufacturing is a key part of Bidenomics and the President’s Investing in America agenda

Today, President Biden and Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm are announcing seven regional clean hydrogen hubs that were selected to receive $7 billion in Bipartisan Infrastructure Law funding to accelerate the domestic market for low-cost, clean hydrogen.

Advancing clean hydrogen is essential to achieving the President’s vision of a strong clean energy economy that strengthens energy security, bolsters domestic manufacturing, creates healthier communities, and delivers new jobs and economic opportunities across the nation. The announcement is part of the third installment of the Investing in America tour, during which President Biden will travel to Philadelphia, Pennsylvania to announce the historic investment in manufacturing and jobs.

link to whitehouse.gov

KGB
KGB
6 months ago
Reply to  Jojo

Conversion of energy to hydrogen and back costs half the energy. Green hydrogen is a non starter.

Jojo
Jojo
6 months ago
Reply to  KGB

You don’t know enough about the H2 market to make your statement.

PapaDave
PapaDave
6 months ago
Reply to  Jojo

Interest in Hydrogen is growing. For many reasons. Primarily because of subsidies through the IRA. However, hydrogen is mostly just another energy storage medium. It is not a source of energy. And it is not going to be used for personal automobiles in any significant numbers in your lifetime. After 40 years of hydrogen fuel cell development, you see a “few” trains, busses, large trucks and cars using them. 72k fuel cell vehicles compared to 1.5 billion vehicles over all. It remains a niche market.

Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
6 months ago
Reply to  PapaDave

The internet was a niche market.

PapaDave
PapaDave
6 months ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker

Hydrogen has had over 40 years to break out of that niche. Still waiting.

Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
6 months ago
Reply to  PapaDave

Good point.
Electric batteries have taken about 120 years.
So far.
And for truly acceptable recharging rates we are still waiting.

Jojo
Jojo
6 months ago
Reply to  PapaDave

Uh huh. That’s why the government is tossing $7 billion into for 7 regional hubs to dispense H2. Additionally:

Deloitte forecasts clean hydrogen market to hit US$1.4T per year by 2050
04 July 2023
In a new report, Deloitte forecasts that the clean hydrogen market will top the value of the liquid natural gas trade by 2030 and grow further to US$1.4 trillion per year by 2050.
link to greencarcongress.com

Global Hydrogen Market Set for Significant Expansion: Projected Value of $761.3 Billion by 2040 – ResearchAndMarkets.com
September 11, 2023
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230911450901/en/Global-Hydrogen-Market-Set-for-Significant-Expansion-Projected-Value-of-761.3-Billion-by-2040—ResearchAndMarkets.com

Jojo
Jojo
6 months ago
Reply to  PapaDave

“However, hydrogen is mostly just another energy storage medium. It is not a source of energy.”
——-
Tell that to Sol, our sun. [roflol]

PapaDave
PapaDave
6 months ago
Reply to  Jojo

Let me know when the fusion reactors are up and running in earth.

Jojo
Jojo
6 months ago
Reply to  PapaDave

About 5 years away.

David
David
6 months ago
Reply to  PapaDave

If the Japanese government decides that it’s their ‘sovereign fuel’ in order to meet international obligations, then everything changes.

OboeG-Moe
OboeG-Moe
6 months ago
Reply to  Jojo

Do you know why hydrogen is not used now?

Ever heard of the Hindenberg? Sheesh 😒

Kiers
Kiers
6 months ago

Canada already has seen TORCHED 40mn+ acres of Boreal Forest right after they passed the “Critical Minerals Strategy” in parliament (Subsidy) to sync mining supplies of EV Battery minerals from virgin untapped forest land, just to sync with Biden’s EV Battery plant push (also a subsidy). Is that great or what? They call this “green” ! Only the most gentrified fan boy thinking would consider it all green! No complaints from MSM. None from “Greta (fraud) Thuneberg”. Silence from the publicks. Dream on dystopia. How sick and stupid is our matrix life?

link to e360.yale.edu
link to archive.ph

PapaDave
PapaDave
6 months ago
Reply to  Kiers

I don’t think that the forest fires in Canada were the result of legislation passed and a future development plan. Nor were they the result of a few scattered mining operations in a massive country.

Its comments like this that make me want the ability to block all future comments from that person.

Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
6 months ago
Reply to  PapaDave

It must be frustrating to be prevented from closing your mind off even further.

Richard Greene
6 months ago

How about the old fashioned concept of freedom of choice?

The buyer chooses ICE or hybrid or EV.

Consider a compact Tesla Model 3 EV with a compact Toyota Corolla ICE:

Tesla Model 3 MSRP = $39,000
Toyota Corolla I4 MSRP = $22,000

This is an EASY choice for me.
Hint: Not the Tesla

Jeff Green
Jeff Green
6 months ago
Reply to  Richard Greene

One is way more environmentally friendlier than the other. Going with FFs is the equivalent of curly of 3 stooges drilling a hole in the bottom of the life boat to let the water out.

Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
6 months ago
Reply to  Jeff Green

Obviously you get way more than $17,000 in virtue signaling bragging rights.

Micheal Engel
6 months ago

Seven co are 28% of SPX. Hamas hit their assets in Israel. Exogenous events
cause inflation/ deflation. Hamas is an Iranian cell. After dividing 2^36 times it will
become an Iranian baby – like Hezbollah – between Egypt and Israel. Bibi aborted it. Biden : don’t, abortions are illegal.

KGB
KGB
6 months ago

92% of consumers want Internal Combustion Engines.

Jeff Green
Jeff Green
6 months ago
Reply to  KGB

Combustion is more expensive to run. This will change with time.

KGB
KGB
6 months ago
Reply to  Jeff Green

Local green electricity costs $0.52/kWh at home and $1.00/kWh at a charging station.

Jeff Green
Jeff Green
6 months ago
Reply to  KGB

In my area gas is high and electricity is low.

Jojo
Jojo
6 months ago
Reply to  Jeff Green

Come to CA where both are high!

But gas prices are projected to fall while electric prices are only going higher.

OboeG-Moe
OboeG-Moe
6 months ago
Reply to  Jeff Green

they’ve been saying that for over a decade.

Jeff Green
Jeff Green
6 months ago
Reply to  OboeG-Moe

Electric cars are very soon to be cheaper than the their gas counterparts. Soon there will be less and less reason to own gas.

Jeff Green
Jeff Green
6 months ago
Reply to  Mike Shedlock

You know adoption of EVs are on the S curve now. Keep in mind, as EVs escalate in numbers, ICE cars are going to be fewer in numbers. Its just the green minerals that are needed. FF mining and drilling will decrease from 15 billion tons a year and green minerals will increase from 7 million tons a year to 28 million tons a year by 2040. You can breathe easier now.

David
David
6 months ago
Reply to  Jeff Green

Not to mention repurposing then recycling – the perfect circle.

DavefromDenver
DavefromDenver
6 months ago
Reply to  OboeG-Moe

Will the price go up – sure. Will it go up faster than the cost of electric? The construction and operating costs of building a dependable Power Grid that has capacity to supply recharging power in all 48 states 24/7/365 hasn’t even been calculated yet. And remember everything else that comes out of Washinton always cost twice it’s estimated cost. Why do think is time will be different.

PapaDave
PapaDave
6 months ago

Plug-in Hybrids are not perfect, but they are a sensible way to reduce emissions since can run on the battery for well over 90% of most peoples trips.

You can build 10 hydrids with 40 mile batteries vs one EV with a 400 mile battery using the same amount of materials. And reduce emissions more overall than a single EV will do.

People who are pro ICE vehicles or anti-EV should actually be cheering for more EV and plug-in hybrid sales. Because this reduces consumption of gasoline, leading to a surplus of gasoline, which will cause gasoline prices to fall. Win-win.

Selling a few more oil stocks today. Cashing in on the recent run up and building up my cash position again.

MPO45
MPO45
6 months ago
Reply to  PapaDave

I picked up 10k worth of 5 year TIPS today. Pretty good deal and I had to do something with my profits.

link to tipswatch.com

I’m expecting a big kaboom in oil markets so I’ll wait till then to sell calls or maybe sell some oil stock.

PapaDave
PapaDave
6 months ago
Reply to  MPO45

A big kaboom? Care to elaborate?

MPO45
MPO45
6 months ago
Reply to  PapaDave

You don’t think those two aircraft carriers in the Mid-east are there to look pretty do you?

There may be some kabooms here and there maybe everywhere.

Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
6 months ago
Reply to  PapaDave

Perhaps instead of accepting a reduction in gasoline prices they will curtain gasoline production and use those hydrocarbons to make more plastics.

PapaDave
PapaDave
6 months ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker

That is exactly what they need to do.

Unfortunately that is not possible with current refinery technology. Even with specialized equipment add ons and different processes, you cannot alter the breakdown of refined products to a significant degree. Though refiners are currently looking into new technologies that could achieve a much different product mix. The problem is whether the investment is worth it, given the typical 30 year time frame for refineries to return the big initial investment. Not to mention that it is almost impossible to get the permits necessary and then fight off the NIMBYism.

Which is why I expect gasoline prices to drop due to surplus production.

Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
6 months ago
Reply to  PapaDave

Papa, sorry to disillusion you with some details. They don’t simply distill crude oil to get gasoline. They make gasoline from various components. They alter the breakdown of refined products hour by hour. The range of petroleum molecules for gasoline can be cracked or reformed at will. If a refinery so wishes it could produce various petrochemicals and no gasoline at all.

A crude oil distillation unit distills the incoming crude oil into various fractions for further processing in other units.

An isomerization converts linear molecules such as normal pentane to higher-octane branched molecules for blending into gasoline or feed to alkylation units. Also used to convert linear normal butane into isobutane for use in the alkylation unit.

A dimerization unit converts olefins into higher-octane gasoline blending components.

An alkylation unit uses sulfuric acid or hydrofluoric acid to produce high-octane components for gasoline blending. The “alky” unit converts light end isobutane and butylenes from the FCC process into alkylate, a very high-octane component of the end-product gasoline or petrol

Coking units (delayed coker, fluid coker, and flexicoker) process very heavy residual oils into gasoline and diesel fuel, leaving petroleum coke as a residual product.

A hydrocracker uses hydrogen to upgrade heavy residual oils from the vacuum distillation unit by thermally cracking them into lighter, more valuable reduced viscosity products.

A fluid catalytic cracker (FCC) upgrades the heavier, higher-boiling fractions from the crude oil distillation by converting them into lighter and lower boiling, more valuable products

Catalytic reformers convert the desulfurized naphtha molecules into higher-octane molecules to produce reformate (reformer product). The reformate has higher content of aromatics and cyclic hydrocarbons which is a component of the end-product gasoline or petrol.

David
David
6 months ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker

…….and they need cobalt to deliver ?.

OboeG-Moe
OboeG-Moe
6 months ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker

Would I be correct in saying that gasoline is a by-product of oil refining? I think I remember reading that back in John D. Rockefeller’s day, before the automobile, they didn’t quite know what to do with the stuff. One result was a gasoline stove, which worked but was surely unsafe by today’s standards.

Jojo
Jojo
6 months ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker

More microplastic bits for everyone!

They are even in our blood now.

David Olson
David Olson
6 months ago

We see here the results of political direction of an important economic sector. Explicit purpose is to end fossil fuel use in the USA, Europe and the West. Ending it in more places in an extra. – Given their indifference to CO2 emissions from China and India, “climate change catastrophe” is simply propaganda. There are other ‘pollution’ reasons why the Greens oppose fossil fuels.

A careful observer will note that substitution of EVs for ICE vehicles is not a sufficient solution to the factions setting the political direction. They want a sharp curtailment of all and anything that pollutes. They prefer us walking and bicycling, living in walkable cities, as better than EV getting around. (And it is speculation how much further beyond THAT that they want our societies to go.)

Jeff Green
Jeff Green
6 months ago
Reply to  David Olson

Evs are just breaking in, in a significant way. By 2030, this is going to look way different.

Micheal Engel
6 months ago

UAW strikes Stella, Ford and GM. If the stock markets will plunge they will drag
both the old ICE & the innovative EV down. Which one is better doesn’t matter.

Jeff Green
Jeff Green
6 months ago
Reply to  Micheal Engel

Tesla is non union. Hurts legacy autos, benefits the startups.

Toutatis
Toutatis
6 months ago

I would like to have an answer to both questions:
1- What is the additional fuel consumption due to the greater weight of the hybrid (because of the batteries)?
2 – What is the additional electricity consumption due to the weight of the heat engine?
It seems obvious to me that it is better to have two cars: one entirely electric, and one entirely thermal, so as not to have to carry around an unnecessary engine.

Jeff Green
Jeff Green
6 months ago
Reply to  Toutatis

The only penalty for weight on EVs is the tires. Other than that, way more efficient than combustion economically and energy efficiency.

Doug78
Doug78
6 months ago

Hybrids give you the best of both worlds and the worst of both worlds at the same time. You have a weak ICE that breaks down plus a small battery with little range. In an accident you have a powerful electric spark to set off your gas tank so they burn much more of than ICE cars let alone EVs. You have a small trunk and you still have to put gas in it and plug it in. Nevertheless, it is a decent half-way step to full electric so people can get used to it so when they go full EV the transition will go like a duck taking to water.
The all ICE forever crowd will still be there because let’s face it, fiddling with your car is a guy thing that will never die and only ICE can fill this deep need.

Siliconguy
Siliconguy
6 months ago
Reply to  Doug78

The daughter’s Prius has the battery under the back seat.

The hatchback space is quite large. Nice car.

Jeff Green
Jeff Green
6 months ago

Gas cars can kiss their ugly pitutes good by.

link to bloomberg.com

Electric Cars Pass a Crucial Tipping Point in 23 Countries
Once 5% of new car sales go fully electric, everything changes — according to a Bloomberg Green analysis of the latest EV adoption curves.

If the US catches the trend, a quarter of new cars would be fully electric by 2026

Jeff Green
Jeff Green
6 months ago

This is called a tipping point. FFs can read the writing on the wall. At some point soon FF expansion will be no more.

From Bloomberg Green

Green Bonds Take the Lead

For the first time, companies and governments are raising more money in the debt markets for environmentally friendly projects than they are for fossil fuels. Almost $350 billion was raised from green bond sales and loan arrangements in the first half of this year, compared with less than $235 billion of oil-, gas- and coal-related financing, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News. The ratio was roughly $300 billion green versus $315 billion fossil fuels in the same period last year.

Doug78
Doug78
6 months ago

The Cybertruck is the new cachet. It’s a monster and if you see that in your rear-view mirror you change lanes to let it pass.

KidHorn
KidHorn
6 months ago
Reply to  Doug78

You don’t have to do that. It will have no trouble blowing past you. Or any competing non EV pickup for that matter.

Jojo
Jojo
6 months ago
Reply to  KidHorn

That’s true of all EV’s.

OboeG-Moe
OboeG-Moe
6 months ago
Reply to  KidHorn

LOL! Please KidHorn, can you report on the Tesla semi? 😂
Shouldn’t you be putting on lipstick and readying your kneepads for Elon? haha 😘

Jojo
Jojo
6 months ago
Reply to  Doug78

I saw one driving the other day and I wound up in back of it. Ugly as sin. Had TX plates on it. Wonder if Musk was in the neighborhood? I was only a couple of miles from the Tesla dealership.

Jeff Green
Jeff Green
6 months ago

The irony of China having the largest coal expansion in the world, but also the largest RE expansion in the world.

From Bloomberg again

China is on track to almost double its current wind and solar capacity by 2025 and blow past the country’s clean power target five years early, according to Global Energy Monitor. The nation has announced or begun construction on enough projects that its total wind and solar capacity is likely reach 1,371 gigawatts by 2025, the research company said in a June report. That would vastly exceed a goal President Xi Jinping set in late 2020 of having 1,200GW of panels and turbines by 2030.

KidHorn
KidHorn
6 months ago
Reply to  Jeff Green

China had huge air quality issues. They decided to switch to EVs and build a lot of coal power plants to supply the electricity. Even if the EVs were 100% coal powered, it would still be better for air quality. And it has been.

Not only did they get better air quality, they’re also leading the world in car manufacturing and export now. It was a brilliant decision for them.

Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
6 months ago
Reply to  KidHorn

And as a big side benefit China will be leading the world in coal-fired power plants for some time to come.

KidHorn
KidHorn
6 months ago

The Tesla Model Y is going to the best selling car in the world this year. The Toyota Prius sales are so low, they don’t even make the list. The only reason the Prius, and pretty much all Toyota’s, are in demand is because of extremely low production numbers. They don’t even make their EVs. They take a Chinese product and rebrand it as a Toyota. Few buy it because it’s an overpriced piece of junk.

And Ford EV sales have been growing. Lower than they hoped. Not because people don’t want EVs. People don’t want Ford EVs. Who’s going to buy a lightning when the Cybertruck is about to be released? The Cybertruck will be a lot better and probably will cost about the same.

Jeff Green
Jeff Green
6 months ago

This is the direction that has been needed for quite some time. The change the IRA is bringing about is historic.

From Bloomberg Green

Climate Bill: The Gift That Keeps on Giving

A year after President Joe Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act, the most significant climate law in US history, data show that investments for a new green economy are pouring in: $110b in private investment, 51 new or expanded plants for producing solar panels, 91 new factories for making batteries and about 170,000 clean energy jobs.

Thetenyear
Thetenyear
6 months ago

What this consumer wants is a car that gets me from point A to point B without having to worry about finding fuel along the way.

I don’t want ICE, EV, or hybrid. I want reliability.

Oh wait, we already have that. So why are we trying to fix something that isn’t broken?

Jeff Green
Jeff Green
6 months ago
Reply to  Thetenyear

Global warming.

Doug78
Doug78
6 months ago
Reply to  Thetenyear

You mean we have teleportation now?

Jeff Green
Jeff Green
6 months ago

Any bias in this post by Mish. There is a lot of evidence EVs are going great guns. People are buying hybirids simply because they are not ready to let go of gas out of fear. Several manufacturers are now supporting the NACS charging regimen. This opens up almost everyone to the vast Tesla Supercharger network.

link to bloomberg.com

Tesla Prices Now Rival Average US Cars After Billions in Cuts
Elon Musk’s latest round of price reductions brings EVs to a new level of price parity — and they’re also driving a wedge between investors.

By Tom Randall
October 9, 2023 at 7:22 AM CDT

Listen

3:13

Tesla Inc.’s top-selling electric vehicles now compete directly with gasoline cars on price after the latest round of price reductions. The lower prices could cost the company $1.2 billion a year, according to at least one investor.

At $38,990, the base Model 3 sedan now costs $8,700 less than the average amount paid for a car or truck in the US. The starting price for a Model Y SUV is $3,700 below the average auto price of roughly $48,000, according to an analysis by Bloomberg Green. Tesla started cutting prices at the start of the year, twisting the screws on legacy automakers that were already struggling to make electric vehicles profitably.

Doug78
Doug78
6 months ago
Reply to  Jeff Green

The more EVs the legacy carmakers make, the more money they lose because they do not have the manufacturing knowledge. They are scrambling to imitate Tesla’s methods but with a workforce that doesn’t know how to do it and will not adapt fast enough. I see loses for them out as far as I can see.It would be better for them to set up two separate companies: one ICE only and one EV only. Put all the unionized workers in the ICE side and hire completely new people for the EV side. ICE manufacturing methods are incompatible with EV manufacturing methods when you look into it.

Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
6 months ago
Reply to  Doug78

Yeah, I noticed that.
ICE bolts screw in clockwise.
While EV bolts screw in counterclockwise.
Right?

Doug78
Doug78
6 months ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker

Lisa, it’s night and day the way Tesla manufactures compared to the legacy car companies. The legacy ones order parts from outside manufacturers on then bolts them together. Tesla makes most in house. They actually build the car themselves. You should look into it. It will open your eyes. The legacies have actually said they have to imitate Tesla’s methods to survive.

Jeff Green
Jeff Green
6 months ago

Actually its hold on to your hats in EV expansion of new car sales. Bettery batteries will be out by 2030 giving longer range and lower prices. We are in a time of change with acceleration of EV adoption.

link to cleantechnica.com

EVs To Surpass ⅔ Of Global Car Sales By 2030, Putting At Risk Nearly Half Of Oil Demand

Exponential growth in electric vehicle (EV) sales is transforming the auto sector faster than currently predicted, with EVs set to dominate global car sales by the end of the decade, putting at risk nearly half of worldwide oil demand, according to new analysis by RMI.
Later-adopting countries, such as India and Israel, are now accelerating EV deployment at faster rates than the global average, meaning they have a chance to catch up with the front-runners, such as China, according to a separate analysis by Systems Change Lab.
Leading markets have already crossed a tipping point, with the EU and China seeing battery electric vehicles cheaper to own than petrol and diesel cars in the small and medium-sized car segments, according to new research from the EEIST project.
Battery electric vehicles are likely to cross a second tipping point, where their purchase price falls below that of an equivalent petrol or diesel car, as early as 2024 in Europe, 2025 in China, 2026 in the US, and 2027 in India, the EEIST analysis shows.

BENW
BENW
6 months ago

Great points, Mish!

Jeff Green
Jeff Green
6 months ago

Ford not selling enough EVs does not represent the entire EV market. 30 seconds a day to plug in and unplug your car is no burden. A very low percentage of people travel 300 miles a day, so in reality, the EV is made to benefit most people’s driving habits.

link to cleantechnica.com

World EV Sales Now Equal 18% Of World Auto Sales

Global plugin vehicle registrations were up 45% in August 2023 compared to August 2022, rising to 1,238,00 units. In the end, plugins represented 18% share of the overall auto market (with a 13% BEV share alone). This means that the global automotive market is firmly in the Electric Disruption Zone*. Add over 800,000 units coming from plugless hybrids and we have one quarter of global registrations having some form of electrification! (*People have asked me what the “Electric Disruption Zone” is. Basically, it is the steepest part of the tech adoption S-curve. Between 10–20% and 80–90% market share growth will accelerate, and then it will slow down on the way to 100%.)

Full electric vehicles (BEVs) represented 71% of plugin registrations in August, keeping the year-to-date tally at 70% share.

Jojo
Jojo
6 months ago
Reply to  Jeff Green

The more you charge the battery, the faster its service life declines. Same as with cellphone batteries.

Steve C
Steve C
6 months ago

The cachet is also coming off Teslas because they are everywhere. Common.

kyle myers
kyle myers
6 months ago

Hey Mish,

Here’s another vicious circle of idiocy related to the EV adoption. So much of California’s population rents and landlords would probably install more chargers for their renters IF they could cover the cost of the chargers by raising the rent. However, a majority of landlords are under rent control so they have no incentive to install electric car chargers on their properites. To boot, some landlords will have to get extra property insurance in case of accidental electrical overload due to charging thieves tapping the charge lines trying to charge concurrently. Governor Newsome has no understanding of these challenges and he just compounds the problem by banning ICEs by 2035.

Jojo
Jojo
6 months ago
Reply to  kyle myers

A majority of renters in CA are NOT covered by rent control! As with all things California, there are all kinds of rent control related laws, some statewide, some local including the recent (AB 1482) and exemptions on top of the exemptions.

BT
BT
6 months ago

Mish keep saying people don’t want EV’s, but the numbers don’t lie. YTD EV sales are approaching 900,000 YTD and growing still. Good for around an 8% market share. That’s not nuthin’.

Hybrids are doing a decent job of catching up, but they generally appeal to slightly different buyers.

The real answer is that both seem to be in demand. Ford is starting to emphasize hybrids, which is good.

Personally, I’d prefer EV for my second/commuter car and hybrid for whatever I do road trips in. The low maintenance aspect of a car that I don’t need a lot of range for is compelling. EV’s make a fantastic second car, and most Americans have two or more vehicles per household. EV’s can make sense there, which is why they are still gaining market share.

KidHorn
KidHorn
6 months ago
Reply to  BT

EVs will account for about 25% of new car sales worldwide this year. The US is a laggard in EV adoption.

Jojo
Jojo
6 months ago
Reply to  KidHorn

Electric vehicles lose HALF their value in less than a year… as worst offending models are revealed
September 6, 2023

ELECTRIC vehicles have lost as much as half their value in under a year as the worst offending models can be revealed.

Drivers of the cars with the worst re-sell value could find themselves seriously out of pocket by thousands of pounds.

The worst offending model was the Seat Mii electric which has lost 50.3 per cent of its value since October 2022.

The Renault Zoe’s value fell by 44.2 per cent and the Nissan Leaf dropped by 42.7 per cent, according to figures from the trade price experts Cap HPI.

In overall cash terms, the EVs that have lost the most amount of money are the Audi e-tron GT, which has fallen by an average of £27,629, the Mercedes-Benz EQC, by £20,275, and the Audi e-tron Sportback, by £18,929.

In the meantime, over the past 12 months, petrol cars have risen 0.6 per cent and diesels are up 0.5 per cent.

link to the-sun.com

KidHorn
KidHorn
6 months ago
Reply to  Jojo

Oh please. Outside of a few outsiders, they don’t lose that much value. And most of the loss is because the price of new ones has dropped substantially.

Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
6 months ago
Reply to  KidHorn

Ok then. The loss isn’t really a loss. It’s just a loss of money. DOH?

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
6 months ago

Hello President Biden, despite tax incentives, ridiculous mileage regulations, nonsensical rules in California, and what’s left of your bully pulpit, the consumer has spoken loud and clear: They still don’t want EVs.

So how is Biden responsible for this? Tax incentives are an act of congress. Rules in California are not made by Biden either and if the consumer is speaking loud and clear what exactly is Biden doing to force EVs down everyone’s throat?

Isn’t this message better for the auto manufacturers rather than someone in the White House? Aren’t they the ones making the cars? And if they are only building cars because of tax incentives but the market doesn’t want them isn’t it on the manufacturers for not paying attention to the market?

The only thing on this list *might* be mileage regulations but that’s a half dozen agencies down from the president.

But perhaps the better question might be, what do you expect Biden to do to fix any of this with Congress (House) without a speaker? Eliminate tax incentives for EVs? Offer tax incentives for hybrids? Tell California to change their rules (isn’t this central planning)?

Since I don’t have a car, I really don’t keep up to date with all these car laws & rules. I get people with cars like Uber, Uber Eats, Instacart, DoorDash, etc to bring me all the goods and transport I need. It’s very liberating, no insurance, no maintenance, no fuel/energy costs, etc which leaves me with more money to invest.

The Captain
The Captain
6 months ago

Hybrids really are a nice deal. I have a Chevy Volt (not bolt). It is a 2013. It originally got 38 miles from a charge but now 23-25 is all I get, but that is plenty for 99% of what I do. I am never stuck downtown trying to look for a fast charger and then having to pay 40 cents per kWh to use it. It easy charges overnight from a 120 V charger, and within about 4 hours for the 220V charger. The switch from electric to gas is seamless. The performance is quite zippy. The batteries are small and so they do not spontaneously combust. Nobody ever told a Volt owner to park away from others.

BENW
BENW
6 months ago
Reply to  The Captain

And this is the very reason why I want to see GM go bankrupt. They killed the Volt. Absolutely WORST decision they’ve made other than to stop making ICE sedans. They’re guilty of chasing profits over giving consumer the best possible car based on the available technology.

The last I checked the Volt had a 53 KW generator attached to the engine. With some additional refinements, they could have made ICE smaller, possibly an optimized 3 cylinder or even a 2 cylinder. This would easily have increased the range 10-20%.

Imagine what a Ultium-based battery for the Volt would do? Using the same pound for pound sizing, it probably would have increased the range by a solid 25% and with less degradation over time.

It would be a fantastic hybrid, truly a market leader. I would imagine the 2023 Prius is going to see some spectacular sales. It’s gotten a little expensive but still way less than the average BEV.

KidHorn
KidHorn
6 months ago
Reply to  The Captain

Hybrids catch fire at a higher rate than EVs,

Mark
Mark
6 months ago
Reply to  KidHorn

Kidhorn,

You and your alias are so biased it is very evident in your posts. Please stop ruining this message board.

KidHorn
KidHorn
6 months ago
Reply to  Mark

Attack the messenger when all else fails.

Stu
Stu
6 months ago
Reply to  KidHorn

So do ICE vehicles, so the fire issue is a non-issue for EV’s now, but hybrids due to the attachment to ICE technology, is still too high for my liking, and the biggest transportation risk for fire is certainly not a selling feature…

BENW
BENW
6 months ago
Reply to  KidHorn

BS! I have NEVER heard of a Prius catching fire, at least not in the last 10 years that’s for sure.

Harold
Harold
6 months ago

Hybrids still catch fire which cannot be extinguished ?

KidHorn
KidHorn
6 months ago
Reply to  Harold

And at a higher rate than EVs.

Zardoz
Zardoz
6 months ago

I don’t want a hybrid. Much more complexity and expensive parts than ICE or electric for very little benefit.

TexasTim65
TexasTim65
6 months ago
Reply to  Zardoz

I used to think Hybrids would make a great purchase.

But then like you I realized they are twice as complex so twice as many things to go wrong once you are out of warranty and have to start repairing things.

Now I think the only way I’d buy one is if I got it slightly used (say 1-2 years old, low mileage) and only planned to keep it for 3-4 years until what ever certified pre-owned warranty expired.

KidHorn
KidHorn
6 months ago
Reply to  Zardoz

Not to mention, if you don’t have access to a charger, as Mish claims lots of people don’t, how is a hybrid any better than a gas car? You’re just using gas to charge the battery. It’s like using a gas generator to charge an EV.

Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
6 months ago
Reply to  KidHorn

Yeah, sort of like using a diesel powered generator to supply electricity to drive motors in a locomotive “engine” – because it’s the most efficient way to burn fuel.

OboeG-Moe
OboeG-Moe
6 months ago
Reply to  Zardoz

um…not really true. Priuses have done very well on the market and are very reliable.

vboring
vboring
6 months ago

The Mach-e are selling slowly because the Model Y is better and cheaper.

I do agree about plug-in hybrids, though. Easy way to electrify 90% of miles and still have an engine for long trips. As long as the electric range is 40+ miles.

Mises R Us
Mises R Us
6 months ago

Like you had mentioned, EVs are really only ideal for shorter drives, where you don’t need quick access to a source to re-fuel or charge. Or they’re great to make a fashion statement, much like the original Apple products were before they fully entered the mainstream. Except, these cars will have trouble with mainstream adoption due to the restricting factors that you had mentioned.

I understand the demand for hybrids like the Prius, but leases don’t make sense once you factor in what you’re saving versus what you’re paying at the pump. The offset is reflected in the increased price per month. Purchasing may make sense, but from what I understand Toyota dealerships have been unrelenting with their markups over the MSRP over the last two 2.5 years. Other manufacturers, I’m not 100% sure.

One of the neat things that Tesla has tested and pretty much perfected, is the direct to consumer model. Given the favorable responses from many auto manufacturers about this model, I could see the more lucrative hybrids being worth a purchase once we see more of this in place.

You just better hope that the hybrid battery doesn’t give out right after the warranty expires.

Stu
Stu
6 months ago

Spot on Mish!

– EVs don’t make people who drive long distance, renters with no access to a charger, people on vacation who will not know where reliable chargers are located, and people who cannot afford an EV despite tax incentives.

All True! I fit into No long distance as a rule, would never pay to place a charger in my home, I will stay home (I travel a lot) before renting an EV right now, and in the foreseeable future, will not pay the money now, or ever if possible, for an EV and will hold onto a Gas OR Hybrid forever!!

– If all you do is tool around town, any reliable used car should suffice. Why buy an expensive EV?

Not too many people would do so on their own accord, and even if forced to, many will reject the thought I would guess. E-Bikes would be the best possible option then, I would think?

– For those looking to buy a new car and worried about charging, a hybrid makes much more sense.

Absolutely!

– Were not for tax credits for consumers and subsidies for producers, EV sales would be in the gutter.

Very, Very True!!!
Just wait until they get the Cost for a New Battery, and at the same exact time, The Cost for the Disposal of the Old Battery… OR the first repair bill where you don’t just change a part for $50-$100 cost and your time to install. Nope, try Thousands in repair cost in many instances…
Sure cost will come down, but when and how far down? I maintain and fix my own cars for very little cost, and have for decades now. Rarely is a repair that I take care of very expensive at all. When I have a major repair, I usually will trade it in or sell it off cheap and move on. Can’t do ANY of that with EV’s…

john N.
6 months ago
Reply to  Stu

in total agreement . Hybrids are the way to go !

Scott
Scott
6 months ago

You cant make a major change like this by whipsawing from one extreme to another, especially since electricity ISNT oil. You arent gonna get a 3 minute charge up as with a fill up. That is a big behavior change that takes time to explain and create infrastructure for. There are only 44 discontinued Chevy Volts left on carmax. Hurry!

Garry
Garry
6 months ago

32 year GM retiree here and engineering and lean managementbackground. People want EVs or will when batteries consistently have a true 350-400 mile range. I’ve also delayed buying one until January when tax credit will be applied during purchase at dealership. There are also multiple new models hitting in 2024 which are going to be better and cheaper than current models.

DJ
DJ
6 months ago
Reply to  Garry

Is there a GREAT Hybrid Van coming?

Jeff
Jeff
6 months ago
Reply to  Garry

I appreciate your insight.

My questions relate to battery longevity and replacement cost. The former is relatively unknown and warranties vary from 8-10 years or 80,000 to 100,000 miles. The layer is also not well understood, but it seems $40K to $50K in today’s dollars is a reasonable guess.

And finally, unlike an ICE or hybrid which can be cheaply rebuilt or run without a battery, once the battery fails the vehicle is bricked and, absent having an extra chunk of money laying around, how will consumers handle coming up with battery replacement funds that, in all likelihood, exceed the residual value of the vehicle?

Can you help me understand that issue?

Richard Greene
6 months ago
Reply to  Jeff

EV batteries have no problem reaching 200,000 miles with perhaps a 10% reduction of range when new. The batteries do NOT need to be replaced simply because the range has declined by 10%. Only 1.5% of all automobiles exceed 200,000 miles.

Battery life is not a problem unless you have a collision. Then it can be a huge potential problem, and an insurance company nightmare.
There can be 2,000 cells inside a battery case and just one damaged by a collision is a potential for a serious fire.

While EVs have not had many fires relative to ICE vehicles and hybrids, they have had a few spontaneous fires while charging and not moving. That problem can only get worse as the EV fleet ages.

My information is primarily from Ford EV engineers in 2022. I worked in Ford product development for 27 years but have been retired for a long time. The last Ford engineer I knew retired at the end of 2022. Ford engineers generally believe EVs are worth $10,000 less than ICE vehicles, but Ford currently intends to charge $10,000 more.
That does not sound like a good business plan.

Jojo
Jojo
6 months ago
Reply to  Richard Greene

It’s not miles that is the issue with EV’s, it is number of battery charging cycles, types of chargers you use (superchargers put more wear on the battery) and temps you drive in (too hot or too cold drains the battery faster and requires more charging), all of which contribute to a decline in battery efficiency and range.

As is a problem with IC cars, the advertised range is not often the actual number you will experience. Musk knows this, which is illustrated in the following article:
———
A REUTERS SPECIAL REPORT
Tesla created secret team to suppress thousands of driving range complaints

About a decade ago, Tesla rigged the dashboard readouts in its electric cars to provide “rosy” projections of how far owners can drive before needing to recharge, a source told Reuters. The automaker last year became so inundated with driving-range complaints that it created a special team to cancel owners’ service appointments.
By STEVE STECKLOW and NORIHIKO SHIROUZU
Filed July 27, 2023, 10 a.m. GMT

In March, Alexandre Ponsin set out on a family road trip from Colorado to California in his newly purchased Tesla, a used 2021 Model 3. He expected to get something close to the electric sport sedan’s advertised driving range: 353 miles on a fully charged battery.

He soon realized he was sometimes getting less than half that much range, particularly in cold weather – such severe underperformance that he was convinced the car had a serious defect.

“We’re looking at the range, and you literally see the number decrease in front of your eyes,” he said of his dashboard range meter.

Ponsin contacted Tesla and booked a service appointment in California. He later received two text messages, telling him that “remote diagnostics” had determined his battery was fine, and then: “We would like to cancel your visit.”

What Ponsin didn’t know was that Tesla employees had been instructed to thwart any customers complaining about poor driving range from bringing their vehicles in for service. Last summer, the company quietly created a “Diversion Team” in Las Vegas to cancel as many range-related appointments as possible.

The Austin, Texas-based electric carmaker deployed the team because its service centers were inundated with appointments from owners who had expected better performance based on the company’s advertised estimates and the projections displayed by the in-dash range meters of the cars themselves, according to several people familiar with the matter.
A Tesla logo shown outside a Beijing showroom. The automaker’s estimates of its electric vehicles’ driving range have been among the most aggressive in the industry. It has faced thousands of complaints from customers disappointed by the vehicles’ real-world performance.

link to reuters.com

KidHorn
KidHorn
6 months ago
Reply to  Jojo

The EPA has tested Tesla’s claims and stood by them. Your mileage can very based on numerous factors, but the same is true of all vehicles.

Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
6 months ago
Reply to  Garry

Garry, you’re right. But I’m also waiting to be able to refill that 350-400 mile range in 5 minutes at one of the many the fill-up station.

Jojo
Jojo
6 months ago
Reply to  Garry

“People want EVs or will when batteries consistently have a true 350-400 mile range.”
—-
But they will change their mind when their batteries wear out after 8 years and replacing one costs more than the car is worth. IF you can even find a replacement. IF not, then the car goes to the junk yard.

KidHorn
KidHorn
6 months ago
Reply to  Jojo

There’s no evidence the batteries will wear out after 8 years.

Jojo
Jojo
6 months ago
Reply to  KidHorn

There is plenty of evidence if you want to go look for it.

Michael Bond
Michael Bond
6 months ago

Definitely in agreement here.

I want hybrids and plug-in hybrids for the next decade.

What Biden missed was hybrids get us to much lower fossil fuel consumption faster with less infrastructure requirements.

Isn’t that the main objective?

Stu
Stu
6 months ago
Reply to  Michael Bond

Should have been FROM THE START!

DJ
DJ
6 months ago
Reply to  Michael Bond

I already own an Hybrid (Plug-in, 40 mile range): perfect for around town and when we leave town, it has A TINY 4-Cylinder engine and yet the Car CRUISES at 100 miles and hour in Montana….which is not uncommon there, with people who tailgate us at 85-90. But, in CRUISING 70 mph speeds, we get over 55 miles per gallon or better if there is a tail-wind or a downhill run down a mountain – – then the ENGINE Shuts off automatically and we run on reserve POWER. IT IS AN AMAZING THING to us. What we lose: part of our rear trunk is SMALL due to the battery compartment eating space…so, we will move into a VAN that is a Hybrid.

rjd1955
rjd1955
6 months ago
Reply to  DJ

What’s the brand & model of the car you are driving?

KidHorn
KidHorn
6 months ago
Reply to  DJ

An EV will get over 100 mpg equivalent and can go way over 100 mph. They’re the fastest cars on the road. And you get more interior space and more storage space than an equivalent sized gas car.

Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
6 months ago
Reply to  KidHorn

And the most wondrous thing is that at 100mph in less than 2 hours you can be out in the desert without enough juice to get back.

Cocoa
Cocoa
6 months ago
Reply to  KidHorn

I think the main selling point, of speed off the line, is 100% irrelevant for 99% of non-wanker drivers. Its a big so what. When does anyone really drive over 80??? Legally or even wanting to??
The other selling point, no gas, is easily negated by the points Mish mentions. Range anxiety and no infrastructure. The EV rolls out of a soccer Mom’s garage, does the errands and rolls back in again where said Soccer Mom plugs the car into the $4000 220 Amp service you didn’t expect to pay for

Jojo
Jojo
6 months ago
Reply to  DJ

I hope your tires are in good condition if you are cruising at 100mph. And that you have decent suspension capable of keeping the car under control if you have to make an evasive maneuver at those speeds.

KidHorn
KidHorn
6 months ago
Reply to  Michael Bond

Hybrids are crap. Mish has no clue what he’s talking about when it comes to EVs. Toyota put all their eggs in the hydrogen basket and lost big time. Now they’re desperate to convince the world to not buy an EV. They said they were about to release a revolutionary new battery that would dominate the future. If so, why would they be pushing hybrids?

Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
6 months ago
Reply to  KidHorn

EVs are fantastic as long as your wife has an ICE SUV (and you’re still on speaking terms) and you have a house to charge the EV. And you never ever run out of electricity like my friends and I have run out of gas. I’m holding off until they come out with a two-gallon can of electricity that weighs a few pounds.

Doug78
Doug78
6 months ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker

Some EVs can run electricity from one EV to another through a cable if necessary to recharge a battery. Probably will become standard soon. No need to have a gas can in the trunk to fill someone up on the road. You could even charge him if you want. Problem solved.

Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
6 months ago
Reply to  Doug78

No, the problem continues to exist.
You can only charge a battery so fast without damage, it’s an energy density thing.
You can’t move energy into a battery as fast as you can pour liquid energy into a tank.
End of story.

Jojo
Jojo
6 months ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker

Use your cellphone.

KidHorn
KidHorn
6 months ago
Reply to  Mike Shedlock

EV sales are going up every year. Pretty much everywhere in the world. While gas car sales are going down. So, how is this evidence of people not wanting an EV? And no one is forced to buy an EV. They choose to do so.

Battery prices have been going down in price as demand has been going up. There’s no shortage of batteries. Or battery materials. I would guess in 5 years, battery production will be several times what it is now. And prices will be a lot lower.

And how was VHS crap compared to beta? They were both essentially the same. VHS won out because the tapes could hold 6 hours of recording vs 4.5 hours for beta. And a lot more manufacturers made VHS tapes and equipment, which lowered the prices. Beta was owned by Sony.

Also, what was better than Oracle? I’ve used oracle for decades. It’s pretty much the same as SQL server and all the other databases.

OboeG-Moe
OboeG-Moe
6 months ago
Reply to  KidHorn

Where are you getting your information? I know many happy Prius owners, including my mom, who drove hers until she passed last summer. Now my brother is driving it. And that was a 15 year old Prius; I’m sure the new ones are better. Toyota is a huge company with a well deserved reputation for reliability and support. If your Tesla battery cracks, you’re SOL.

Stuki Moi
Stuki Moi
6 months ago
Reply to  Michael Bond

“Isn’t that the main objective?”

The only “objective” is to collect votes and support from armies of well indoctrinated drones who mindlessly and cluelessly believe in any idiotic nonsense that hacks with preferential access to the government wants to sell them.

Those who CAN successfully produce competitive hybrids do.
Leaving only the ones who CAN’T; to fill the ranks of those who instead crassly screech for arbitrary government handouts, in favour of simplistic, pie-in-the-sky, anyone-can-build-them irrelevancies of hype and nothing but, which noone wants anything to do with, once forced to choose.

Hybrids are hard. Idiots “making money off their home and portfolio” can’t competitively build those. Not even close.

Overweight, overpriced, underperforming, pointless battery toys are not hard at all. Anyone can slap those together. One’s as good as the next. Hence those are, obviously, the childishness of choice, for the “made money from my home” crowd of undifferentiated imbeciles.

Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
6 months ago
Reply to  Stuki Moi

And then there’s the really stupid people that buy pure EVs.

Bombillo
6 months ago
Reply to  Michael Bond

Hybrids have the disadvantage of both options. Rip the band aide off and make the switch now.

Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
6 months ago
Reply to  Bombillo

Throw all the band aides away and move into a big city and take the bus.

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