The outcome in a mere 11 seats may determine which party wins the House of Representatives.
The odds of a clean sweep by either party in the Senate, House, and White House are not that great.
Democrats are highly likely to lose the Senate, and close analysis of RaceToTheWH stats suggests Republicans will struggle to win the House.
Ratings
- Safe D or R: Favorite has a 95%+ Chance.
- Lean D or R: Favorite has a 76-85% Chance.
- Tossup: Favorite has < 65% Chance.
I disagree with those weightings. And I strongly suspect the reason is to be able to count the ratings they got right without error.
Tilts are 65+ percent calls, hardly going out on a limb.
House Map Analysis
If all of the lean, likely, and tilt races go according to current odds (they won’t), then Republicans would need a sweep of the 11 races rated tossup.
If instead we assume the all of the safe + lean races break as suggested, we can discuss what it would take for Republicans to win the House.
One small advantage Republicans have is in the Tilts. Republicans only have 3 tilts but Democrats have 7.
Of the 21 tossups or tilts (counting Republican tilts), Republicans need to win 17 of those races or pull off major upsets elsewhere.
If we redefine tossup as 55 percent or less, there are only four genuinely competitive races out of 435. Sheeesh!
Eleven Tossups
- ME-2: D 53.1%
- NY-19: D 51.9%
- NY-17: D 52.0%
- MI-7: R 53.9%
- IA-1: R 58.6%
- CO-3: R 61.7%
- AZ-1: R 64.4%
- CA-41: R 58.8%
- CA-22: D 61.6%
- OR-5: D 56.1%
- WA-3: D 57.1%
Of those, I would only rate the first four as genuine tossups.
Polymarket has the Democrat’s odds of winning the House at 56 percent. If the RaceToTheWH odds are accurate, that’s on the high side unless polls are overcounting Democrats nationally.
538 House Odds
In House simulations, 538 says Republicans win control 55 times out of 100
Its definition of tossup is a more reasonable 60 percent threshold, with ten seats defined as tossup.
The 538 projection is 219 seats to 216. That’s a genuine tossup.
How Much of a Political Lagging Indicator is Nate Silver?
Polymarket has Trump 54.9 to Harris 44.7. Yesterday Nate Silver has Harris 51.8 to Trump 47.9.
On October 12, I asked How Much of a Political Lagging Indicator is Nate Silver?
Based on momentum and the idea that Silver using too many stale polls, I suggest that Polymarket has better odds. Either way, it’s close to a tossup. No one knows if Harris or Trump is overweighted.
I would rather be in Trump’s shoes. Silver says the opposite.
Note: Silver just posted new odds. They are now 51.0 Harris to 48.7 Trump. The rest is a recount.
As expected in this corner, momentum is slowly eating into the alleged lead of Harris.
There are 22 days remaining. Don’t pretend you know who will win. You don’t. Nor does anyone else.
Republicans Increasingly Likely to Flip the Senate
Meanwhile, in case you missed it, please see Republicans Increasingly Likely to Flip the Senate According to NYT/Siena Poll
The best news for Republicans is not the uptick in polls for Trump.
Rather, the best Republican news is the likelihood they can avoid a devastating Democrat sweep if Trump were to lose.
Polymarket has Republican odds of taking the Senate at 77.5 percent. That seems about right.
Red Wall vs Blue Wall: Trump Has a Much Easier Path to a Victory
Finally, please see Red Wall vs Blue Wall: Trump Has a Much Easier Path to a Victory
There are scenarios where Trump could lose Georgia or North Carolina and still win.
It is much more unlikely Harris could suffer a loss in Pennsylvania or Michigan and win.
Polymarket’s betting participants are 100% non-U.S. Polymarket thus must be heavily discounted, if not totally ignored.
Disgusting is what this is! ONLY 11 seats in contest out of all those vile reptiles chewing away at America! The problem is, everyone hates Congress but LOVES thir own representative. If everyone put Congress’ failures onto their incumbents, then those people would go away and some more competetion would become available.
“..everyone hates Congress but LOVES thir own representative…”
More like: Hates congress (I mean, who wouldn’t…) but is convinced “their” particular vile reptile is less vile than the alternative.
Every Congress race is a miniature Presidential one: You have a choice. Between a D%ck, and a C$nt. That’s America.
Most correct …
The coming shock
FACT, PERCEPTION AND A LOOMING CRISIS
Although this site is dedicated to the rigorous analysis of measurable economic and financial trends, there are times when intuition must be allowed some latitude, and this seems to be one of those times.
There appears, in short, to be a quickening in the pace of change, even if we can’t always pin this down in terms of data or happenings.
Another way to put this is that, whilst most economic facts change only gradually, perceptions and sentiment can evolve very rapidly indeed, and seem now to be doing exactly that. This is very largely a bottom-up process of changing perceptions which hasn’t – yet – started to influence financial market sentiment.
https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2024/10/15/291-the-coming-shock/
– The outcome in a mere 11 seats may determine which party…
> Who made up this list? After looking at one state that I deeply questioned, I can’t go any further with any feeling that it’s accurate at all, and some of it may be, but that’s the problem, just some of it. So now none of it counts, after my first observation ironically.
– They have NH listed as “Leaning Democrat”
> NH has Never Leaned Democrat to my knowledge? It’s definitely a “Moderate State” to be sure. if not Conservative. I have been a part of NH, Lived around it, and in it most of my adult life, and in various communities within the state.I Love It!
While I will acknowledge, that Mass infiltration has disrupted things (Pockets), they are still having a hard time coming close to tossing NH to Leaning. I suppose with this particular election, a Toss Up might be appropriate, as it has voted Democrat here and there over the last 15 years or so. Hardly enough to call the state leaning imo, and not that I would say leaning for Republican either, again in this particular election. That all depends on how many people they were able to convince, and that’s called a toss up!
Unrestricted immigration, female rights to their autonomy over their own body, and the economy are the primary issues for American voters. Added to this is the concerns of 6 January 2021. A composite global stock market blow-off on 15 and 16 October followed by crash to 23-24 October 2024 will not have much effect on voting. As a veteran and an institutionalist supporting American constitutional precepts, I think Harris has a decided edge in winning the swing states. Our nemesis’, the autocrats of Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran, love the chaos that the US supreme court has created in its rulings over the last several years. American laws are supposed to unify our nation, not divide it.
– Unrestricted immigration > A Democrat Nightmare
– female rights to their autonomy over their own body > Dealt with, and a State Issue Only
– the economy > A Democrat Nightmare
If those are the primary issues for American voters, then Democrats are Toast!!!
– 6 January 2021 > A moot Point, has not been discussed in quite sometime, Trump was 100% Cleared by the FBI/CIA with no charges. It’s simply a “Talking Point” that has run its course, and is out of steam.
– stock market > A Democrat Nightmare
>> the US supreme court has been exceptional in its rulings over the years. American laws are supposed to unify our nation, not divide it. And They Do! They have “1 JOB” and that’s to Protect the Constitution. They have done an amazingly excellent job for many, many decades now. Maybe some votes didn’t go your way, as I have experienced the same. The trick is to be consistent, and not leaning in either direction, and they have been absolutely “Stellar” at that over the decades IMO!
You hear them get beat up, by both sides, and it’s typically when their side is on the losing end, so to speak. Makes sense, and is typical of people throughout issues within there lives that effect them…
Bibi will not attack Iranian nukes and oil facilities. The monthly countdown might be completed in Oct 31. CL might rise in Nov, testing Oct high, before con’t down for a few more months, reaching/breaching May 2023 low @63.64. Thereafter up to $90/$100, before $115 and breaking out above 2008 high.
It will take an asteroid to toss them all up.
Gerrymandering needs to stop. Both parties complicit in feathering their nests. Elections need to be competitive for good governance – same principles apply as for antitrust. 2 parties without real district-by-district competition is national suicide.
We are on Borrowed TimeChina is Too Big to Bail and Too Big to Failhttps://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/we-are-on-borrowed-time
So it is the opposite outcome of “China’s 100 Year Marathon” ?
China is becoming more economically weak ? Given Chinese culture, work ethic, and determination, you would think they would make adjustments.
So we can expect more cheaper LCD TV’s and other Chinese manufactured products as they engage in more dumping to sustain their growth objectives ?
The thing is … how do you make adjustments to this?
Local governments raised half their revenues from land sales before the property bubble burst. This funding has collapsed, leaving them in various states of insolvency.
Professor Victor Shih, director of the 21st Century China Center in San Diego, says 12 of the 31 provinces have monthly debt service costs that exceed their monthly income, and all but four were over 50pc. By the end of 2022 the debt service ratio had reached 200pc in Tianjin, 188pc in Jilin, 176pc in Guizhou, and so on.
It’s worse than the figures you quoted. Local governments depend on land sales for half their revenue but local governments are made up of officials. No land sales and no resulting construction means no bribes to officials to turn a blind eye to tofu dreg construction. So angry local officials, angry apartment buyers as their apartments drop in value, angry developers as they face bankruptcy, angry shareholders as their shares go to zero, angry construction workers who are laid off and angry steel mills, cement plants, truck drivers etc who now face years of lean times.
Maybe the CCP needs a diversion for peoples anger and rallying around the flag in hard times works wonders and might move up the “reunification” across the Taiwan Straits by a few years. Hope the US navy has weeded out DEI elements by then.
Any investment tips for WW3? Anyone?
If anything HK is the cleanest shirt in China… so if this … then imagine the situation on the mainland…
Cullinan Sky was developed on a land plot that Sun Hung Kai bought for HK$25.2 billion ($3.2 billion) in 2018, a record price at the time. With the pricing of this first batch of homes, the developer may be booking a loss as the average sale is 38% below the estimated breakeven unit price of HK$32,000 per square foot, BI said. Sun Hung Kai has an additional 584 homes under construction in a second phase of the project.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/international/2024/10/06/hks-biggest-developer-sells-204-apartments-in-a-day-at-discount/
They’re Currency’s being watched very closely these days. They may be thinking: “Be Careful what You Ask For” as they are now very much tied in with the World, and the way they handle there currency is critical for their Country, and the World.
Nobody in the right mind would cite Nate Silver regarding any subject.
DJT is comfortably ahead. DJT has been comfortably ahead for months/years. This election is NOT a horserace. Obvious & systemic ballot/election process fraud is the only reason this election could possibly be close… IOW, the “horserace” peddlers cynically accept de facto disenfranchisement & fraud, choosing to chase clicks while abandoning principles. This behavior has been noted and will not be forgotten.
Neo-Nazis joined RNC Co-Chair Lara Trump’s boat parade and yelled, “white power,” “make America white again,” “heil Trump,” and racial slurs.
https://x.com/MollyJongFast/status/1845938957478940741
Gerrymandering sucks
Yeah. Only 2 of 6 of Oregon’s reps are republicans. Maryland is worse: only 1 out of 8 are republicans. Freaking democrat gerrymanderers.
And I live in one of those four districts (NY-19)
Joy.
What is hilarious to me is how that district came to be. It didn’t have to exist. The Dems in NY shot themselves in the foot with an anti-gerrymandering amendment back in 2014, when they didn’t need to pass any such thing for any political advantage or anything. They decided to pass it, and even the anti-gerrymandering folks in NY thought the proposed amendment was a joke…. it passed. Har har har.
Then came the re-apportionment for the 2022 election.
This is getting long, so you can see my post to see the more elaborate explanation:
https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/election-post-mortem-new-york-karma
Climate change boosted Milton’s landfall strength from Category 2 to 3Rapid attribution shows the hurricane would have been a much less damaging storm.https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/10/climate-change-boosted-miltons-landfall-strength-from-category-2-to-3/
oh but its a scam saaay what? We are chumps sitting in a petri dish atop a Bunsen burner
Hurricane Milton was a category 5 but weakened to a category 3 just before it made landfall.
I think the wrath of the voters for the DNC and consequently most things dem is being badly underestimated.
The mainstream media is trying to at least convince enough voters the economy is doing well and to trust the economic stats being produced by the Biden admin.
Just saw True Value is filing for bankruptcy. Big Lots and LL Flooring filed for bankruptcy this year along many other major companies.
Harris is trying to make it to the finish line before the mainstream media is not able to do her bidding in regards to reporting about the economy as well as immigration and inflation.
The leftish but very fair Cook Political Report doesn’t go quite as far as this outfit, RaceToTheWH, which I had not heard of before. It has 207 for the Rs, with 202 for the Ds, There are 26 toss-ups, of which 14 are R incumbents. It doesn’t really make a forecast, but they tend to think that the tossups will move as does the generic ballot. If it truly is R+3 as Gallup has it, the house should go to Republicans.
Cook is pretty much considered to be the gold standard for House forecasts. RCP is reasonable but not nearly as good, and I don’t know enough about Silver’s House effort to rate it. You might also look at DecisionDeskHQ.
True Value 4,500 stores bk
Fewer DIY-ers with every funeral. Covid Theater helped the Big Boxes.
If Dems win the House that means the preternaturally evil Hakeem Jeffries becomes House Speaker. You can see in his eyes and by what comes out of his mouth he might as well be a meat sack home for Satan. And I do not even believe in Satan.
CA coastal line is blue. The inland is red. CA taxpayers are tired of paying swing state. That might change. CA might becomes a swing state herself. From Santa Cruz all the way down to Rolling Hills the ocean chewed up the coast line.
The very fact that only 11 seats are up for grabs is an instructive comment on the gerrymandering that has been occurring for the past decades. it almost sounds like we need a new way forward if we are to make any headway out of the current government disaster
People generally keep voting the same person back into office, as long as they want to hold it. McCain and Feinstein virtually died at their Senate seats.
Do the people really want the same face for decades? Or does the other branch of the Uniparty fail to seriously compete?